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Gold and Oil Surge as Middle East Tensions Rise US FOMC and NFP Reports Loom

Gold and Oil Surge as Middle East Tensions Rise; US FOMC and NFP Reports Loom The reported death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, allegedly due to an Israeli missile strike, has significantly heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising the likelihood of imminent retaliatory actions. In response, Iranian leaders have issued strong statements: These statements increase concerns about the potential for broader conflict in the region. The instability could have substantial effects on the oil market, given that regional disruptions often impact oil production and distribution. The situation remains highly volatile, with potential repercussions for global energy markets and international relations. Observers are closely watching for further escalation or diplomatic efforts to ease tensions. In addition to the geopolitical developments, upcoming U.S. events and data could influence oil and gold prices. Later today, the FOMC meeting is expected to maintain current U.S. borrowing costs, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell might signal a path toward a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting. On Friday, the U.S. Jobs Report (NFP) is anticipated to show a slowdown in the labor market, with 175K new jobs added in July compared to 206K in June. Yearly average hourly earnings are expected to drop to 3.7% from last month’s 3.9%. U.S. oil prices rose by over 2% in reaction to the news but remain within a multi-week downtrend. Recent weak economic data from China and concerns about a potential slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy have also pressured oil prices. China’s GDP growth slowed to 4.7% in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1. US Oil Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by FX4Today Team Retail trader data reveals that 86.15% of traders are net-long on US Crude, with a long-to-short ratio of 6.22 to 1. The number of net-long traders has increased by 5.20% from yesterday and by 15.22% from last week. Meanwhile, net-short traders have decreased by 10.72% since yesterday and by 31.94% from the previous week. Adopting a contrarian approach, the high percentage of net-long positions suggests that US Crude prices might continue to decline. The significant increase in net-long positions compared to both yesterday and last week reinforces a stronger bearish contrarian bias for Oil – US Crude. Gold has retraced approximately half of its recent decline and is moving towards a previous resistance level at $2,450/oz. This level, which was breached in mid-July before the metal experienced a sharp drop and entered a multi-month trading range, is now in focus. Should tensions in the Middle East escalate further or if Jerome Powell adopts a dovish stance in tonight’s remarks, Gold could not only test this former resistance level but also approach the recent multi-decade high of $2,485/oz. Gold Price Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by FX4Today Team

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Currencies EUR/USD

Euro (EUR/USD) Faces Pressure Amid German Q2 Economic Contraction

Euro (EUR/USD) Faces Pressure Amid German Q2 Economic Contraction. The German economy contracted in the year’s second quarter, falling short of expectations for a modest expansion. Initial data from Destatis reveals a contraction of 0.1% in Q2, contrary to the anticipated 0.1% growth following a 0.2% expansion in Q1. According to Destatis, there was a notable decline in investments in equipment and buildings, adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects. Destatis is scheduled to release revised GDP figures on August 27th. Later today, the latest German inflation data will be closely watched for any signs of weakening price pressures. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut on September 12, and further deterioration in German inflation could increase these odds. Preliminary German inflation data is due to be released at 13:00 UK time. In the forex market, EUR/USD is struggling to recover from Monday’s losses, with the recent German GDP report exerting additional downward pressure on the pair. Short-term German bond yields have fallen to levels not seen since early February, contributing further to the Euro’s weakness. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by FX4Today Team EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.0830, positioned below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) but just above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. A drop below these SMAs and Monday’s low of 1.0803 could expose the pair to further declines toward the 1.0750 area, potentially moving down to 1.0700. Conversely, a rise could face resistance near recent highs and at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.0866. Retail trader data reveals that 47.20% of traders are net-long, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.12 to 1. The number of net-long traders has increased by 14.81% since yesterday and by 15.95% from last week, while net-short traders have decreased by 9.23% since yesterday and by 23.48% from the previous week. In our contrarian approach, the predominance of net-short positions suggests that EUR/USD might rise. However, the decrease in net-short positions compared to yesterday and last week indicates that the current upward trend may soon face a reversal, despite the overall net-short sentiment. The Euro (EUR/USD) continues to face downward pressure following the contraction of the German economy in the second quarter. Recent data reveals that Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.1% in Q2, contrary to expectations for a slight 0.1% growth, and following a 0.2% expansion in Q1. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported a significant drop in investments in equipment and buildings, adjusting for price, seasonal, and calendar effects. Revised GDP figures are expected from Destatis on August 27th. Today’s focus will shift to German inflation data, which will be closely monitored for indications of weakening price pressures. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 66% probability of a rate cut on September 12, and any further softening in German inflation could enhance these expectations. Preliminary inflation data will be released at 13:00 UK time. In the forex market, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0830, below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) but just above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. A break below these SMAs and Monday’s low of 1.0803 could see the pair decline towards the 1.0750 level, with a potential drop to 1.0700. On the upside, resistance is expected around recent highs and at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0866. Retail trader data indicates that 47.20% of traders are net-long, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.12 to 1. The number of net-long traders has increased by 14.81% from yesterday and by 15.95% from last week, while net-short traders have decreased by 9.23% since yesterday and by 23.48% from the previous week. While the majority of traders are net-short, suggesting a potential rise in EUR/USD, the reduction in net-short positions could signal a forthcoming reversal in the current trend, despite prevailing net-short sentiment.

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Analysis Technical Analysis

Gold, Oil, and USD/JPY Latest Positioning Outlook | Retail Sentiment Analysis

Gold, Oil, and USD/JPY Positioning Outlook Retail Sentiment Analysis Gold Analysis of retail trader positioning shows that 56.19% are net-long on Gold, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.28 to 1. The percentage of net-long traders has decreased by 2.47% from yesterday and by 3.96% from last week, while net-short traders have increased by 7.34% since yesterday but decreased by 4.98% from the previous week. From a contrarian perspective, the current net-long positioning suggests that Gold prices might face downward pressure. Despite a reduction in net-long positions compared to yesterday, the current level remains higher than last week’s figures. This mix of sentiment and recent changes creates a somewhat ambiguous outlook for Gold prices. Source: TradingView, prepared by Retail trader data shows that 56.19% of traders are net-long on Gold, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.28 to 1. The percentage of net-long traders has decreased by 2.47% since yesterday and by 3.96% from last week. Meanwhile, net-short traders have increased by 7.34% since yesterday but are down by 4.98% from the previous week. Given the current net-long positioning, a contrarian view suggests that Gold prices might face further declines. Although the net-long positions have slightly reduced since yesterday, they remain higher than last week, leading to a mixed outlook for Gold prices. Oil (US Crude) Retail trader data shows that 84.07% of traders are net-long on US Crude Oil, with a long-to-short ratio of 5.28 to 1. The proportion of net-long traders has risen by 11.02% since yesterday and by 18.68% from last week, while net-short traders have decreased by 7.18% since yesterday and by 34.26% from the previous week. From a contrarian standpoint, the high level of net-long positions suggests that US Crude Oil prices might be poised for a decline. The significant increase in net-long positions, both daily and weekly, supports a bearish contrarian view on Oil prices. Source: TradingView, prepared by Retail trader data indicates that 84.07% of traders are net-long on US Crude Oil, with a long-to-short ratio of 5.28 to 1. Net-long positions have risen by 11.02% since yesterday and by 18.68% from last week. In contrast, net-short positions have fallen by 7.18% since yesterday and by 34.26% from the previous week. The high level of net-long positioning suggests that US Crude Oil prices might be due for a decline. The substantial increase in net-long positions supports a bearish contrarian outlook for Oil prices. USD/JPY Retail trader positioning for USD/JPY reveals that 40.25% of traders are net-long, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.48 to 1. The percentage of net-long traders has increased by 1.25% since yesterday and by 7.52% from last week. Conversely, net-short traders have grown by 0.77% since yesterday but have decreased by 16.88% from the previous week. From a contrarian perspective, the net-short positioning suggests that USD/JPY prices might continue to rise. However, the reduction in net-short positions compared to yesterday and last week indicates that this trend could be nearing a reversal. Despite the current net-short sentiment, these recent changes hint that a downward shift in the USD/JPY price trend might be imminent. Source: TradingView, prepared by For USD/JPY, 40.25% of traders are net-long, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.48 to 1. Net-long traders have increased by 1.25% since yesterday and by 7.52% from last week. Conversely, net-short traders have risen by 0.77% since yesterday but have decreased by 16.88% from the previous week. The predominantly net-short positioning suggests that USD/JPY prices could continue to rise. However, the reduction in net-short positions relative to yesterday and last week may indicate a potential reversal in the current trend, suggesting that USD/JPY prices might soon decline.

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Analysis Currencies EUR/USD Market Forecasts

EUR/USD Eurozone Q2 GDP Grows More Strongly Than Anticipated

EUR/USD Eurozone Q2 GDP Grows More Strongly Than Anticipated The euro area economy demonstrated steady growth in the second quarter, despite an unexpected contraction in Germany, according to official data released on Tuesday. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3 percent in the three months ending in June, matching the growth rate of the first quarter, as reported in the preliminary flash estimate from Eurostat. This growth rate slightly surpassed economists’ expectations of 0.2 percent. On a year-over-year basis, economic growth increased to 0.6 percent, compared to an anticipated 0.5 percent for the second quarter. The next set of estimates is scheduled for release on August 14. Germany lagged behind other eurozone countries in terms of growth, while Spain remained a strong performer, driving growth within the currency bloc. France experienced faster-than-expected growth, while Italy’s growth slowed, influenced by negative contributions from net foreign trade. France’s economy expanded by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, supported by investment and exports. Spain achieved a robust growth rate of 0.8 percent, whereas Italy’s growth decelerated to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. Franziska Palmas, an economist at Capital Economics, indicated that surveys suggest a potential slowdown ahead. According to Palmas, the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) aligns with the possibility of GDP stagnation in July. If this trend continues, third-quarter GDP might fall short of the already below-consensus forecast of 0.2 percent. ING economist Bert Colijn observed that the recovery from a prolonged period of stagnation persisted into the second quarter, though signs of slowing are emerging. For the European Central Bank, this ongoing growth acceleration relative to 2023 should not impede further rate cuts, Colijn noted. The euro area’s economic performance in the second quarter showed resilience, with the 0.3 percent GDP growth mirroring the first quarter’s expansion. This growth slightly outpaced the forecasted 0.2 percent, reflecting a modest but notable strength in the eurozone’s economic recovery. However, the disparity in performance among member countries highlighted varying dynamics within the region. Germany’s unexpected contraction stands out as a significant deviation from the broader trend, suggesting underlying challenges in Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s slowdown contrasts sharply with the stronger performance seen in Spain, which continued to be a key driver of growth in the eurozone. Spain’s robust 0.8 percent growth is indicative of its continued economic momentum and resilience. France, too, contributed positively with a 0.3 percent expansion, driven by increased investment and strong export performance. This result was better than anticipated, signaling underlying economic strength despite broader uncertainties. Conversely, Italy experienced a slowdown, with growth falling to 0.2 percent from the previous quarter’s 0.3 percent. The deceleration in Italy was influenced by negative contributions from net foreign trade, which impacted its overall economic performance. Looking forward, economic forecasts suggest a potential slowdown in the coming months. Franziska Palmas from Capital Economics pointed out that current surveys, including the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), indicate that GDP might stagnate in July. This trend could lead to a weaker-than-expected third quarter, particularly if the economic deceleration persists. ING economist Bert Colijn highlighted that while the euro area is continuing its recovery from a prolonged stagnation, emerging signs of slowing growth are evident. For the European Central Bank (ECB), relative to 2023’s performance, the current growth acceleration should not hinder plans for further rate adjustments. The ECB’s monetary policy may need to accommodate these emerging trends to support continued economic stability and growth.

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Analysis Fundamental Analysis Market Forecasts

What are the main events for today?

What are the main events for today? Key highlights include the German Consumer Price Index (CPI), Eurozone Q2 GDP figures, US Consumer Confidence data, and US Job Openings statistics. During the European session, we will receive the German CPI readings and the Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP report. While these might cause some market fluctuations, any impact is likely to be short-lived as attention will shift to the more significant Eurozone Flash CPI report scheduled for tomorrow. In the American session, we’ll see the US Consumer Confidence figures and Job Openings data. While these reports are not expected to significantly alter policy expectations, a notable decline in the present situation index of the Consumer Confidence report could unsettle the markets. US Job Openings are forecasted to be 8.030 million, down from 8.140 million previously. Since peaking in March 2022, job openings have been on a steady decline, approaching pre-pandemic levels. This trend is positive for the Federal Reserve, as it indicates a rebalancing of the labor market through reduced job availability rather than increased layoffs. However, the labor market remains a critical area to monitor closely during this phase of the economic cycle. The US Consumer Confidence is projected to be 99.5, down from 100.4 previously. The most recent report showed a modest decline in confidence, though the index has remained within a narrow range since 2022. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noted: “Confidence dipped in June but stayed within the same narrow range observed over the past two years, as current views on the labor market continued to outweigh future concerns. However, if significant weaknesses in the labor market emerge, confidence could decrease as the year advances.” US Consumer Confidence is forecasted to drop to 99.5 from the previous 100.4. This anticipated decrease follows a slight decline observed in the last report, yet the index has largely fluctuated within a narrow range since 2022. This stability indicates that while there have been some variations, overall consumer sentiment has remained relatively stable over the past two years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, commented on this trend, explaining that the recent dip in confidence, while notable, still keeps the index within a consistent range seen throughout the past two years. Peterson highlighted that current views on the labor market have remained strong enough to counterbalance concerns about future economic conditions. This reflects a broader trend where consumers’ perceptions of the present job market have been resilient, even as they harbor worries about what lies ahead. Peterson also pointed out that any significant downturn in the labor market could potentially impact consumer confidence more sharply. If the job market shows material weaknesses, it could lead to a further decline in consumer sentiment as the year progresses. This potential weakening could be driven by a range of factors, including rising unemployment, decreased job openings, or broader economic disruptions. The stability in consumer confidence observed so far suggests that many consumers feel relatively secure about their current employment situations. However, confidence in the future may become more fragile if there are signs of a slowdown in job creation or if layoffs increase significantly. Such developments could erode consumer confidence and lead to reduced spending, which, in turn, might impact economic growth. Overall, while current consumer confidence remains within a stable range, it is important to monitor upcoming reports and economic indicators closely. Shifts in the labor market, such as changes in job openings or unemployment rates, could have significant implications for consumer sentiment and, by extension, economic activity. As we progress through the year, both consumers and policymakers will need to stay alert to these dynamics, as they will play a crucial role in shaping the economic landscape. In summary, the expected decline in Consumer Confidence to 99.5 from 100.4 reflects ongoing fluctuations within a stable range. While current views on the labor market are bolstering confidence, any substantial deterioration in employment conditions could pose risks to future sentiment and economic stability. Monitoring these trends will be essential for understanding the broader economic outlook.

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Market Forecasts Stocks

This Week’s Market Sentiments July 2024

Market dynamics driven by central bank meetings, Apple developments, and corporate earnings shape investor sentiment. This Week’s Market Sentiments Depend on Central Bank meetings, Apple developments, and Corporate earnings. U.S. stock futures are up as the week begins, marked by significant central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve, and key tech earnings reports. Apple is delaying the rollout of its AI features for its main products, and the European earnings season is also ongoing. 1. Futures Up Ahead of Fed Meeting and Corporate Earnings U.S. stock futures rose slightly on Monday as the week begins with a focus on the Federal Reserve’s meeting and major corporate earnings reports. As of 04:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Dow futures were up 60 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures gained 12 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 70 points (0.4%). After a challenging week, especially for tech stocks, major earnings reports from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) on Tuesday, Meta (NASDAQ: META) on Wednesday, and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) on Thursday are expected to influence market sentiment. 2. Fed at the Forefront of Central Bank Meetings This Week Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with significant policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. The Federal Reserve concludes its July meeting on Wednesday, where it is anticipated to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25%-5.50%, unchanged since last July. However, markets are increasingly predicting a rate cut in September, especially after recent inflation data showed cooling prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will be closely scrutinized for hints about future rate adjustments. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will also meet on Wednesday, with growing speculation about a potential rate hike despite a sluggish economy and weak consumer sentiment. The Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday brings uncertainty over whether policymakers will implement their first rate cut since 2020. Last month, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee held rates steady, but the upcoming decision could be influenced by conflicting factors of service price inflation and weak growth. 3. European Earnings: Heineken and Philips Report Mixed Results In Europe, earnings reports are making waves as the second-quarter results season progresses. Heineken (AS: HEIN) saw its shares drop 7% after missing half-year estimates and announcing a significant write-down of its 40% stake in China Resources Beer. Despite this, Heineken raised its full-year profit guidance, forecasting organic operating profit growth between 4% and 8% for 2024. Conversely, Philips (AS: PHG) saw a 10% rise in stock value following better-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by higher earnings and restructuring benefits. Pearson (LON: PSON) experienced a 3.5% decline after reporting a drop in pretax profit, though the company remains on track to meet its full-year expectations. 4. Apple Delays AI Integration in Major Devices Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is extending the timeline for incorporating its new artificial intelligence features, branded as Apple Intelligence, into its flagship iPhone and iPad models. According to Bloomberg, these AI features will now be included in the October updates for iOS 18 and iPadOS 18, rather than the initial September release. This delay comes as Apple aims to leverage AI advancements to counter slowing iPhone sales. Apple is also set to report its June quarter earnings this week, with expectations for continued declines in device sales due to market saturation and competition. 5. Crude Prices Rise Amid Middle East Tensions Crude oil prices gained on Monday due to rising concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East affecting global supply. Following a deadly rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, U.S. crude futures (WTI) climbed 0.1% to $77.20 a barrel, and Brent crude rose 0.1% to $80.38 a barrel. The attack, attributed to Iran-backed Hezbollah, has led to retaliatory strikes by Israel and increased uncertainty about a potential ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. Despite these tensions, crude demand outlook remains uncertain.

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Analysis Currencies Forex News Market Forecasts Technical Analysis USD/JPY

Asian currencies are weakening due to uncertainty in US-China relations denting the yuan

Asian currencies are weakening due to uncertainty in US-China relations denting the yuan Asia FX, On Friday, most Asian currencies weakened amid concerns about escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, boosting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset despite ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar index and its futures edged up 0.1% each during Asian trading, poised for their first weekly gain in three weeks. These gains marked a rebound for the greenback from nearly four-month lows, supported by market expectations that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate reductions starting in September. Despite recent sessions where Asian currencies benefited from these expectations, they retreated on Friday due to apprehensions surrounding deteriorating U.S.-China relations. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential race, with increasing calls for President Joe Biden to forego reelection, kept investor risk appetite subdued. The Chinese yuan is hovering near eight-month lows amidst trade tensions and concerns about economic growth. Chinese yuan depreciated, with the USDCNY pair approaching levels last observed in November 2023. The currency’s decline was influenced by recent reports suggesting the U.S. might impose stricter trade sanctions on China’s technology and chipmaking sectors, potentially provoking retaliatory actions from Beijing. Even prior to these developments, the yuan had been impacted by data indicating lower-than-anticipated economic growth in the second quarter of the year. Attention has now turned to the Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, where senior officials pledged additional measures to bolster economic growth without specifying the details of these initiatives. The Japanese yen depreciated following suspected intervention measures. the Japanese yen weakened, reversing its recent gains against the dollar. Earlier in the week, the USDJPY pair climbed above 157 yen, rebounding from levels around 155. Speculation arose about possible Japanese government intervention in the currency markets following the yen’s sharp appreciation, although officials provided few indications on the matter. Inflation data for June showed softer-than-expected figures for Japan’s consumer price index, raising uncertainties about the Bank of Japan’s potential to raise interest rates further at its upcoming meeting later this month. Some analysts anticipate a modest 10 basis point increase from the BOJ. Across Asia, broader currency markets weakened as investor risk appetite remained subdued. The USDKRW pair for the South Korean won rose by 0.2%, while the USDSGD pair for the Singapore dollar increased by 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair saw a slight decline, and the Indian rupee’s USDINR pair reached a record high above 83.7 rupees. India continues to face a persistent trade deficit, which has weighed on the rupee despite ongoing optimism surrounding the country’s economy.

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Analysis Expert Advisors Fundamental Analysis

Understanding Expert Advisors (EAs) in Forex Trading

Understanding Expert Advisors (EAs) in Forex Trading In the realm of forex trading, where rapid decision-making and precise timing are crucial, Expert Advisors (EAs) play a pivotal role. These automated trading systems, also known as forex robots, are designed to execute trades on behalf of traders based on predefined parameters and algorithms. This article delves into the concept of Expert Advisors, their functionalities, benefits, and considerations. What is an Expert Advisor (EA)? An Expert Advisor is essentially a piece of software coded for the MetaTrader platform, the most popular trading platform in the forex market. It operates based on predetermined rules and algorithms, allowing it to analyze market conditions, identify trading opportunities, and execute trades automatically without the need for human intervention. How Do Expert Advisors Work? The core functionality of an Expert Advisor revolves around its algorithmic trading capabilities. Traders or developers create specific sets of rules and criteria that the EA follows. These rules can encompass technical indicators, price action patterns, risk management strategies, and more. Once deployed on a MetaTrader platform, the EA continuously monitors the market, executes trades according to its programmed parameters, and manages open positions. Benefits of Using Expert Advisors Automation and Efficiency: EAs operate 24/5, tirelessly monitoring markets and executing trades at high speeds, which is impossible for human traders to maintain consistently. Emotion-Free Trading: By removing human emotions such as fear and greed from trading decisions, EAs can help maintain discipline and stick to the trading strategy. Backtesting and Optimization: Before deploying an EA in live trading, it can be backtested using historical data to evaluate its performance under various market conditions. This allows traders to optimize their strategies and fine-tune parameters for better results. Diversification: Multiple EAs can be deployed simultaneously on different currency pairs or strategies, providing diversification and reducing overall risk. Execution Speed: EAs can execute trades instantly as soon as the trading criteria are met, which is crucial in fast-moving markets. Considerations When Using Expert Advisors While EAs offer numerous advantages, traders should also be aware of potential drawbacks and considerations: Market Conditions: EAs are based on predefined algorithms and may struggle in volatile or unpredictable market conditions where human judgment might be more adaptive. Monitoring and Maintenance: Continuous monitoring is required to ensure that the EA is performing as expected and to make adjustments as market conditions change. Over-Optimization: Excessive optimization of parameters based on historical data (“curve fitting”) can lead to poor performance in live trading when market conditions differ. Technical Knowledge: Developing or customizing an EA requires programming skills and a deep understanding of both trading strategies and technical indicators. Risk Management: Although EAs can incorporate risk management rules, traders must still monitor overall risk exposure and ensure proper capital management. Conclusion Expert Advisors represent a significant advancement in forex trading technology, offering automation, efficiency, and the potential for enhanced trading performance. However, their effectiveness ultimately depends on the quality of their programming, the suitability of their strategies to current market conditions, and the ongoing supervision and adjustment by traders. As technology continues to evolve, EAs are likely to remain a valuable tool for traders seeking to optimize their trading strategies and capitalize on market opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.

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Analysis Commodities Gold Gold News News Real Time News

Gold (XAU/USD) – Poised to Set a New All-Time High Latest Sentiment Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) – Poised to Set a New All-Time High Latest Sentiment Analysis The price of gold remains on an upward trajectory, nearing a test of the all-time high of $2,480/oz set on May 20th. The recent surge is fueled by renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates by 25 basis points in mid-September. Financial markets are currently factoring in a total of 65 basis points in cuts for the year, with uncertainty lingering over the possibility of a third rate reduction. On the daily chart, gold is approaching the upper boundary of its multi-month range, supported by the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages. The CCI indicator indicates that gold is in overbought territory, suggesting a potential brief consolidation phase before reaching new highs. GOLD DAILY PRICE CHART Charts using TradingView According to retail trader data, 49.86% of traders are currently holding long positions, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.01 to 1. The percentage of traders holding long positions has decreased by 1.69% compared to yesterday and by 12.94% compared to last week. Conversely, the percentage of traders holding short positions has increased by 5.27% from yesterday and by 16.85% from last week. Our approach typically leans contrarian to crowd sentiment. Given that traders are net-short, there is a suggestion that Gold prices could continue to climb. Moreover, the increase in net-short positions compared to both yesterday and last week strengthens our bullish contrarian trading bias for Gold. Gold has seen a rise, bolstered by last week’s lower US CPI data, paving the way for further gains. The precious metal thrives in environments of reduced interest rates, and the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has reignited optimism among gold bulls. Previously, gold had been consolidating around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the significant decline from 2020 to 2022. However, recent upward momentum has pushed it beyond this level. In May, gold briefly hit a new all-time high before experiencing a pullback, partly influenced by reduced monthly purchases from China, the world’s largest consumer of gold. The future direction of gold hinges on whether a combination of a weaker dollar and lower US yields can stimulate bullish demand at already elevated price levels. Central to the recent market dynamics is the growing expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Investors have fully priced in this cut and are now contemplating the possibility of two rate reductions by the end of the year, with a 50% probability of a third. Gold’s volatility has eased recently as tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have diminished, despite ongoing conflicts. However, 30-day implied gold volatility (GVZ) has shown recent upticks. Moving forward, a significant catalyst would be necessary to attract buyers back in substantial numbers to sustain prices well above the previous all-time high.

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​​Netflix’s Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Preview: The Fight to Stay on Top

Netflix’s Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Preview As Netflix gears up to announce its earnings for the second quarter of 2024, the key question on investors’ minds is whether the popular streaming service can continue to attract a substantial number of new subscribers, effectively leverage its ad-supported plans, and maintain its position as the leading streaming platform. With the upcoming earnings announcement set to provide crucial insights, let’s delve into what to expect from Netflix’s latest financial performance. Earnings Announcement Date Netflix is scheduled to disclose its financial results for the period spanning April to June 2024 after the stock market closes on Thursday, 18 July 2024. This announcement will be closely monitored by investors and analysts alike, eager to assess the company’s progress and future outlook. Anticipated Revenue Growth The company is optimistic about its revenue prospects, forecasting a 16% year-over-year increase to $9.49 billion for the second quarter of 2024. However, analysts are slightly more bullish, predicting that Netflix’s Q2 revenue will be marginally higher at $9.53 billion. This anticipated growth follows a robust first quarter in 2024, where Netflix reported a revenue of $9.37 billion, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. Earnings Projections In terms of earnings, Netflix has set a forecast for a net income of $2.06 billion, or $4.68 per share, for the second quarter of 2024. Analysts, however, have a slightly higher expectation, estimating the earnings per share (EPS) to be $4.74. To put these figures in perspective, Netflix reported a net income of $1.48 billion, or $3.29 per share, in the second quarter of 2023. Additionally, in the first quarter of 2024, Netflix’s net income was $2.3 billion, translating to an EPS of $5.28. Revenue Growth Outlook Looking ahead, Netflix is confident in its potential for continued revenue growth, projecting a 21% year-over-year increase in FX-neutral revenue for the second quarter. While the company anticipates a lower number of paid net additions in Q2 compared to Q1 due to seasonal variations, it expects global average revenue per membership to rise on a year-over-year basis in Q2, on an FX-neutral basis. Subscriber Growth and Engagement In the first quarter of 2024, Netflix demonstrated impressive growth by adding 9.3 million net subscribers, boosting its global paid memberships by 16% year-over-year to reach 269.6 million. The average revenue per membership also saw a year-over-year increase of 1%, or 4% on an FX-neutral basis. Despite the implementation of changes like paid sharing, engagement levels remained solid, underscoring the resilience and appeal of Netflix’s content library and platform. ​NETFLIX SALES REVENUE CHART For the second quarter of 2024, Netflix forecasts an operating income of $2.52 billion with an operating margin of 26.6%. This is a significant improvement from the $1.82 billion and 22.3% operating margin reported in Q2 2023. Comparing this to the first quarter of 2024, Netflix’s operating income was slightly higher at $2.63 billion with an operating margin of 28.1%. These figures reflect Netflix’s strong financial performance and its ability to enhance profitability year-over-year, despite slight fluctuations between quarters. LSEG DATA & ANALYTICS ANALYST NETFLIX RECOMMENDATIONS According to LSEG Data & Analytics, the consensus analyst rating for Netflix is ‘buy’ as of July 10, 2024. This rating comprises 11 strong buys, 18 buys, 16 hold, and 1 sell recommendation. Netflix – Technical View The Netflix share price, up more than 45% year-to-date, is nearing its November 2021 record high of $700.99. Given that this peak was close to the significant psychological threshold of $700, it is likely to pose a substantial resistance level. ​NETFLIX MONTHLY CHART A rise above the all-time high of $700.99 would shift focus to the $750 region. On the daily chart, Netflix’s share price has been range-bound since late June but recently climbed to a July high of $697.49, nearing the record peak of $700.99. The uptrend from May to July, with support at $678.42, bolsters the upside. Strong support is also observed between the May high and the late June and early July lows, ranging from $633.78 to $662.30. As long as this support zone holds, the short-term uptrend remains intact. ​NETFLIX DAILY CHART For a medium-term top to materialize, the Netflix share price would need to decline below its June low of $626.44. Should this occur, the April high at $639.00 is anticipated to provide support slightly above this critical level. This scenario implies that the share price must breach several key support zones to confirm a trend reversal. Currently, Netflix’s share price is supported by the uptrend line from May to July, which sits at $678.42. Below this, a robust support range exists between $633.78 and $662.30, encompassing the late June and early July lows as well as the May high. As long as these support levels remain intact, the short-term uptrend is expected to persist. However, if Netflix’s share price falls below $626.44, it would indicate a significant shift in momentum, potentially leading to a medium-term top. The immediate support at $639.00, stemming from the April high, might offer a temporary buffer. The breach of these supports would signal a weakening of the bullish trend and could prompt further downward pressure. Investors should closely monitor these key levels to gauge the market’s direction and make informed decisions accordingly.

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