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Analysis Commodities Gold Gold News Technical Analysis

Gold Price Draws Support from Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts, Stronger USD Caps Gains

Gold Price Draws Support from Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts, Stronger USD Caps Gains Gold (XAU/USD) is back in the spotlight, recovering from a dip in the Asian session and trading near its weekly highs of around $2,660 as we approach the European session. But this bounce is cautious, and it’s clear that bulls aren’t diving in with full conviction just yet. Why? It all boils down to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing strength of the US dollar. Let’s break it down. What’s Propping Up Gold? Gold has always been a safe-haven asset, especially in times of uncertainty. And right now, there’s plenty of that, with escalating geopolitical risks and increasing bets that the Fed is going to cut rates further. These factors provide crucial support to the metal. But despite this, gold’s upside is being capped by the stronger US dollar, which is hovering near its recent highs, and elevated Treasury bond yields. Geopolitical Tensions & Fed Policy Support Gold The Middle East is heating up, and that’s causing risk aversion across global markets. Geopolitical conflicts tend to drive investors to safer assets like gold, so it’s no surprise that regional tensions are helping to buoy prices. At the same time, the market is largely convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows that inflation pressures are easing, giving the Fed more room to ease up on its aggressive rate-hike stance. This combination of easing inflation and geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the price of gold. What’s Capping Gold’s Gains? While gold is drawing support from these factors, there’s a cap on its gains. Thanks to elevated Treasury bond yields, the US dollar has been stubbornly strong. Investors have priced out the possibility of an oversized rate cut by the Fed, leaving yields on US Treasury bonds above 4%—which, in turn, helps keep the dollar near its highest level in two months. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, limiting its appeal. Adding to the cautious tone is China. While there’s optimism about the country’s pledge to boost debt and revive its economy, the details are scarce. Investors are holding back from making bullish bets on gold until they see more concrete steps from Beijing. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles Market Movers: What’s Shaping Gold Right Now Let’s look at some key market movers that are influencing gold prices: Technical Outlook: Are Gold Bulls in Control? From a technical standpoint, gold seems to favor bulls in the short term. However, there’s still a need for more follow-through buying before we see any significant moves higher. Key Support Levels If gold starts to slip, here’s where it might find some buying interest: Key Resistance Levels On the flip side, gold’s upside will depend on its ability to clear these key resistance levels: What to Watch Going Forward Gold is stuck in a bit of a tug-of-war right now. On one hand, geopolitical tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts are providing strong support. On the other hand, the robust US dollar and elevated Treasury yields are keeping a lid on any major upside moves. With Columbus Day closing US markets, it’s likely that gold will remain at the mercy of USD price dynamics and any fresh geopolitical developments. For now, traders should keep an eye on the $2,660 resistance level—if gold breaks above this, we could see some more significant gains in the coming days.

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Analysis Currencies EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EURUSD Analysis Price Prediction: What’s Next for the Euro?

EURUSD Analysis Price Prediction: What’s Next for the Euro? The EUR/USD pair is riding a wave of volatility as global markets face a whirlwind of risk-off sentiment. With geopolitical tensions simmering and economic uncertainty rising, the euro finds itself on shaky ground. The big question—will the US dollar continue to crush its rival, or will the euro manage to claw its way back? Let’s dive deep into the action, focusing on support and resistance levels for EUR/USD on the daily chart and what the technical landscape tells us about the week ahead. We’ll also break down the impact of supply and demand zones, and how global events and central bank policies are setting the stage for the next big move in the world’s most traded currency pair. EUR/USD Under Pressure: The Battle Below 1.0950 EUR/USD Bleeding Under a Stronger Dollar The euro is in trouble. After four straight days in the red, EUR/USD is trading just above 1.0920 as the week kicks off. The downward pressure is relentless, and it’s all thanks to the US dollar’s strength. The greenback is flexing its muscles, fueled by a risk-off environment that has investors scrambling for safe-haven assets. The euro? Not looking so hot right now. Geopolitics: Middle East and Taiwan Stir the Pot What’s adding fuel to this fire? Geopolitics. Tensions are boiling over in the Middle East, with escalating conflicts that are shaking investor confidence. And as if that wasn’t enough, there’s the ever-looming China-Taiwan situation. Just on Monday, the US Department of State expressed “serious concern” about China’s military drills in the Taiwan Strait. When global uncertainty ticks up, so does the appeal of the US dollar. The euro, as a result, continues to get pummeled. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Support Zones – Where Buyers Might Step In All eyes are on the 1.0900 level right now. It’s a critical line in the sand—break below it, and things could get messy for the euro. Traders are watching for a potential bounce here, but if that support gives way, we’re looking at the next stop around 1.0850, followed by 1.0800. These are not just random numbers; they represent key historical levels where buying interest has popped up before. Resistance Levels – Can the Euro Claw Its Way Back? On the flip side, if EUR/USD manages to break above 1.0950, it might find some breathing room. That’s the first major resistance zone to keep an eye on. Should the pair rally beyond that, it could head toward 1.1000—a psychological barrier—and then target the 1.1050 level, where sellers have typically stepped in. Supply and Demand: Where’s the Action? Supply Zone – Sellers Ready to Pounce The 1.0950-1.1000 zone is a major area where sellers are lurking. Every time the euro gets close to this range, it meets strong resistance. If the bulls manage to break through, it could spark a quick rally, but the supply zone is a significant roadblock that won’t be easy to overcome. Demand Zone – Will Buyers Save the Day? As for demand, 1.0900-1.0850 is where buyers might step in to prop up the euro. But if that fails, the pair could tumble down to 1.0800, a level that would likely trigger more aggressive buying. The real question is whether the demand here is strong enough to halt the decline or just a temporary speed bump on the road to more losses. Global Factors Shaping EUR/USD: Tension, Rates, and More Geopolitical Risks: Middle East Chaos and China-Taiwan Tensions Geopolitical drama is keeping traders on edge. With the Middle East heating up and the China-Taiwan situation bubbling under the surface, investors are gravitating toward the US dollar as a safe haven. Any further escalation could keep this trend going, leaving the euro vulnerable to even more downside. Federal Reserve: Eyes on November Rate Cut Traders are now betting on a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, especially after last week’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in nearly an 87% chance of this cut. A rate cut could potentially weaken the US dollar slightly, but for now, the dollar’s safe-haven appeal is the dominating force. ECB Dovishness: The Euro’s Achilles Heel Meanwhile, over in Europe, the ECB is not doing the euro any favors. With the Eurozone economy struggling and inflation cooling faster than expected, the ECB is likely to stick to its dovish stance. More interest rate cuts are expected, and that’s putting a heavy lid on any euro strength. This dovish outlook is making it difficult for the euro to gain any serious traction against the dollar. What’s the Game Plan for EUR/USD Traders? Bearish Sentiment Prevails If you’re on the bearish side, you’ve got plenty of reasons to be confident right now. A break below 1.0900 would likely open the door to further losses, and if 1.0850 gives way, 1.0800 could be the next stop. With geopolitical tensions mounting and the ECB remaining dovish, the euro doesn’t seem to have much room to breathe. Bulls Need to Break Above 1.0950 For the bulls, it’s all about reclaiming 1.0950. If the euro can break through that level, we could see some short-term relief, with the potential to push toward 1.1000. But the bulls have their work cut out for them, especially given the strength of the US dollar and the risk-off sentiment in the market. No Time for Complacency: Keep an Eye on the Headlines This week is going to be all about headlines. Whether it’s further developments in the Middle East, a sudden flare-up in China-Taiwan tensions, or fresh economic data from the US or Eurozone, anything could tip the scales. The US dollar is in the driver’s seat, and until something shifts, the euro is likely to remain on the defensive. For now, the focus remains on the key support and resistance levels. Traders will be watching 1.0900 closely, as a break below could signal

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Crypto Crypto News News

Arkham Intelligence to Launch Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange

Arkham Intelligence to Launch Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain data firm known for its expertise in analyzing on-chain transactions, has announced plans to launch a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange next month. This new venture marks a significant expansion for the company as it seeks to tap into the rapidly growing crypto derivatives market. The move has caught the attention of the industry, particularly given Arkham’s innovative background and the notable investors backing the firm, including Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI. The announcement was first reported by Bloomberg, revealing Arkham’s strategic decision to relocate its operations from London and New York to Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. The relocation is seen as part of a broader strategy to leverage the country’s financial incentives, while also targeting a broader global audience. What Is Arkham Intelligence? Arkham Intelligence, founded in 2020, is a blockchain analysis platform that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) to deanonymize blockchain data. The firm’s core mission is to reveal the entities and individuals behind cryptocurrency transactions, making the blockchain more transparent. Arkham’s two primary components, the Analytics Platform and the Intel Exchange, provide users with deep insights into the blockchain world: Arkham’s unique value proposition is rooted in its AI-driven approach to deanonymizing on-chain transactions, a feature that has garnered significant attention from crypto traders, institutions, and regulators alike. The company’s ability to provide detailed information on crypto transactions sets it apart from other blockchain data firms. Arkham’s Entry Into the Derivatives Market The decision to launch a derivatives exchange represents Arkham’s effort to capitalize on the growing demand for cryptocurrency derivatives, financial contracts that derive their value from underlying assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Derivatives trading has become increasingly popular in the crypto market, allowing traders to hedge their positions, speculate on price movements, and enhance their returns through leverage. Arkham’s new derivatives platform will be based in the Dominican Republic and will operate under a free-trade zone license, which offers tax incentives and other financial benefits. This location is a strategic choice, as the Dominican Republic’s regulatory environment is perceived to be more favorable for crypto businesses compared to the stricter regulations in other countries. Why the Dominican Republic? Arkham’s decision to relocate its operations to Punta Cana aligns with the company’s goal of serving a global user base, while avoiding the regulatory challenges posed by markets like the United States. By establishing itself in the Dominican Republic, Arkham can take advantage of tax benefits and more flexible financial regulations, creating a favorable environment for launching its new platform. However, it’s important to note that the exchange will not be available to U.S. customers. This exclusion is likely due to the complex regulatory landscape in the U.S., where derivatives trading, particularly in the crypto sector, faces stricter scrutiny from regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Backing by High-Profile Investors Arkham Intelligence has gained significant backing from prominent investors, including Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI. Altman’s involvement in the project lends credibility to Arkham’s plans, especially given his background in artificial intelligence and innovative technology. Altman’s investment also signals confidence in Arkham’s ability to disrupt the crypto derivatives market, which is currently dominated by major players like Binance, Bybit, and OKX. With the support of high-profile investors, Arkham has the resources and expertise to challenge these established exchanges. Recent Developments at Arkham Intelligence Arkham Intelligence has been making significant strides in recent months, positioning itself as a leading player in blockchain analytics. In July 2024, the company introduced a feature that allowed users to connect their Coinbase Wallets to the Arkham platform. This integration enabled users to track their crypto holdings more easily while continuing to benefit from Arkham’s core offering of blockchain transparency. This feature is part of Arkham’s broader mission to demystify the blockchain and make it more accessible to retail investors. By providing tools that allow users to track their assets and transactions in real-time, Arkham is helping to create a safer and more transparent crypto market. The company’s focus on de-anonymizing blockchain transactions has also been a key differentiator. Unlike other blockchain data firms, Arkham specializes in identifying the individuals and entities behind cryptocurrency wallets. This ability to reveal transaction data has been particularly useful for regulators, institutions, and traders looking to gain insights into market movements and suspicious activities. Arkham’s Strategy: Competing in the Derivatives Market Arkham Intelligence’s foray into the derivatives market is a bold move that positions it against some of the largest exchanges in the crypto space. Binance, Bybit, and OKX are currently dominant players in crypto derivatives, offering a wide range of products and leverage options to traders. To compete effectively, Arkham will likely leverage its strengths in data analytics and blockchain transparency. The company’s ability to provide deep insights into market trends and transactions could give it a competitive edge in the derivatives space, where data-driven trading strategies are highly valued. Additionally, by operating under a Dominican Republic free-trade zone license, Arkham will benefit from a more favorable regulatory and tax environment, which could allow it to offer more competitive pricing and services compared to its rivals. The Future of Arkham Intelligence As Arkham prepares to launch its derivatives platform, the company is poised to play a significant role in shaping the future of crypto derivatives trading. By combining its expertise in blockchain data with a focus on user-friendly derivatives products, Arkham aims to carve out a niche in an increasingly crowded market. For retail investors, Arkham’s platform offers the potential for greater transparency and security, particularly in an industry that has been plagued by concerns over fraud and market manipulation. The platform’s focus on global accessibility, coupled with its innovative features, could make it an attractive option for traders seeking a trustworthy exchange. However, the exclusion of U.S. customers may limit Arkham’s reach in one of the largest crypto markets. Nonetheless, with the backing of high-profile investors and a clear strategy for growth,

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Crypto Crypto News News

Fairdesk Crypto Exchange to Shut Down Amid Market Conditions

Fairdesk Crypto Exchange to Shut Down Amid Market Conditions Fairdesk, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange launched in 2021, will permanently close its operations on November 30, 2024. The exchange cited shifting market conditions and regulatory changes as the primary reasons for its decision to wind down. The announcement marks the end of Fairdesk’s relatively short but impactful run, where it established itself as a reliable platform for futures and spot trading for a global user base. Timeline of Events Leading to Closure Fairdesk made the announcement in an official company release, informing users that all trading activities on the platform will cease on October 17, 2024, with only withdrawals allowed after that date. Users have been encouraged to withdraw their funds before the final closure on November 30, 2024, when the platform will shut down permanently. The company has assured users that withdrawals will remain open during this transition period, offering them ample time to move their assets off the platform. However, after the November deadline, any remaining assets will no longer be accessible, which has prompted Fairdesk to emphasize the urgency of timely withdrawals. Fairdesk’s Rise in the Crypto Space What was Fairdesk? Fairdesk was established as a derivatives trading platform based in Singapore, allowing users to trade futures and spot markets for various digital assets. One of the platform’s standout features was the ability to go long or short on crypto assets, with leverage options up to 125x. This high leverage allowed traders to maximize their potential gains with relatively small amounts of capital, appealing particularly to professional and day traders who sought to make fast moves in the volatile crypto markets. The exchange offered a variety of services, including: Why Did Fairdesk Shut Down? The decision to shut down came as a result of challenging market conditions and regulatory changes. Over the past few years, the crypto market has experienced increased volatility and regulatory scrutiny, particularly in regions like the United States and Europe. Although Fairdesk had built a reputation for reliability and performance, these broader challenges proved difficult to navigate. The regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrency exchanges has grown increasingly complex. Many governments have introduced or are in the process of implementing stricter rules to regulate the trading and use of digital assets. This pressure has led to a wave of closures, consolidations, and exits from exchanges that are either unable or unwilling to comply with these new regulatory demands. Fairdesk’s leadership, after evaluating the situation, decided it was better to wind down the company rather than continue operating in an uncertain environment that could risk the safety and trust of its users. Security and Reliability at Fairdesk One of the key features that had earned Fairdesk the trust of its user base was its strong emphasis on security. In an industry where hacks and security breaches are a major concern, Fairdesk set itself apart by implementing rigorous safety measures. The platform stored the majority of user funds in cold wallets, meaning the assets were kept offline, away from the risk of online hacks or attacks. Every transaction was manually inspected and signed offline, which ensured that unauthorized withdrawals or malicious activity could be identified and stopped in time. Fairdesk’s focus on high performance and low latency made it a go-to choice for day traders who required fast and reliable execution for their trades. The platform’s infrastructure was designed to handle high volumes of trading activity without compromising on speed or reliability, even during peak trading periods. What Should Fairdesk Users Do Now? For the users of Fairdesk, the most important step is to withdraw their funds before the November 30 deadline. The exchange has stopped all trading activities as of October 17, leaving withdrawals as the only remaining function until the platform officially shuts down. Here are the steps Fairdesk users should follow to ensure a smooth withdrawal process: The Broader Impact of Fairdesk’s Closure The closure of Fairdesk is part of a broader trend in the crypto space, where smaller and mid-sized exchanges are finding it difficult to compete in an increasingly regulated market. Larger exchanges with more resources and the ability to comply with stricter regulations are expected to continue dominating the space, while smaller players may either consolidate or exit the market. Fairdesk’s shutdown also raises concerns about the future of crypto derivatives trading, particularly for exchanges that offer high leverage. While leverage can amplify profits, it also increases risk, and regulators have become increasingly wary of platforms offering such high-risk trading options, especially to retail users. In Last The shutdown of Fairdesk marks the end of a significant player in the derivatives trading space. Although it had only been in operation for a few years, Fairdesk managed to build a strong reputation for reliability, security, and low fees. However, the combination of shifting market conditions and increased regulatory pressure ultimately led to the decision to close its doors. For users, the priority is now to ensure that their funds are safely withdrawn before the platform’s final closure on November 30, 2024. While Fairdesk may be shutting down, its legacy as a user-focused, secure trading platform will likely be remembered by its global user base for years to come.

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Analysis Commodities Gold Gold News Market Forecasts News

Gold Price Holds Below $2650 Amid Modest USD Uptick: US PPI in Focus for Fresh Impetus

Gold Price Holds Below $2650 Amid Modest USD Uptick: US PPI in Focus for Fresh Impetus Gold prices remain stable, hovering below the $2,650 mark as the precious metal benefits from a modest USD uptick. Investors look to the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for new market drivers. Despite the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which supports the US Dollar, gold has managed to attract positive momentum for the second consecutive day. Gold Price Sees Positive Traction Amid Bets for Fed Rate Cuts Gold prices (XAU/USD) have gained traction for the second straight day as market participants expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue with rate cuts. This recovery comes after gold touched a near three-week low at $2,602 on Thursday. A weaker labor market, highlighted by a surge in US weekly jobless claims, reinforces the view that the Fed may continue its easing policy, adding to the precious metal’s positive outlook. The non-yielding yellow metal benefits from a softer risk tone in the market. The signs of weakness in the labor market contributed to a modest decline in US Treasury bond yields, which further support gold’s upward trajectory. These factors have allowed the precious metal to recover much of its recent losses. Mixed US Economic Data and Its Impact on Gold Prices The recent release of stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation data complicates the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 3.3%. These figures dampened hopes for an aggressive rate cut by the Fed in November. As a result, the US Dollar rallied to a near two-month high before retreating slightly. This firming of the USD may limit any significant bullish momentum for gold, which often moves inversely to the US Dollar. Despite this, gold has managed to stage a partial recovery, as traders anticipate further action from the Fed and look to the upcoming US PPI data for fresh direction. US Labor Market Weakness Supports Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal One of the critical factors driving gold’s recent gains is the deteriorating US labor market. The US Labor Department reported an increase of 33,000 in unemployment claims for the week ending October 5, bringing the total to a seasonally adjusted 258,000, higher than the expected 230,000. This data suggests that the US labor market is losing momentum, which may influence the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle. The Fed’s focus on achieving maximum sustainable employment means that signs of weakness in the labor market could provide further support for gold as a safe-haven asset. The non-yielding nature of gold becomes more attractive when interest rates are cut, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Softer Risk Tone Benefits Gold Despite USD Strength Despite the recent strength of the US Dollar, which is typically bearish for gold, a softer risk tone in the market is helping the precious metal maintain its upward momentum. Investors are increasingly cautious about global economic growth prospects, particularly in light of China’s fiscal policy measures. China’s finance ministry is expected to provide more details of its fiscal stimulus package over the weekend, which could influence global market sentiment. While these measures may improve the risk sentiment temporarily, they could also cap any significant upside for gold in the short term. Technical Outlook: Gold Price Poised for Further Upside From a technical perspective, gold’s rebound from the $2,600 level and its move above the $2,630 support zone is encouraging for bullish traders. The daily chart’s oscillators remain in positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for gold is to the upside. The next key resistance for gold is seen at the $2,657-$2,658 level, followed by the $2,670-$2,672 supply zone. If gold manages to clear these hurdles, it could challenge the all-time high of $2,685-$2,686, which was reached in September. A break above the psychological $2,700 level would confirm a continuation of the multi-month uptrend that gold has been following. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance and Support Zones The immediate downside for gold is protected by the $2,630-$2,628 region, which now acts as support. If this level is breached, gold could face further losses, potentially testing the $2,600 level. A sustained break below this level would signal a bearish trend, opening the door for a deeper correction towards the $2,560 and $2,535-$2,530 support zones. In an extreme bearish scenario, gold could drop to the $2,500 psychological support mark. US PPI Data Could Drive Short-Term Gold Price Movements Traders are now turning their attention to the US PPI report, which could influence demand for the US Dollar and provide fresh impetus for gold prices. The PPI data is a key indicator of inflation at the wholesale level and can have significant implications for the Fed’s interest rate decisions. If the PPI data comes in stronger than expected, it could bolster the US Dollar and weigh on gold prices. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PPI data could reignite hopes for further Fed rate cuts, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal and driving prices higher. Gold Price at a Critical Juncture Gold prices remain at a critical juncture as traders await further cues from the US economic data. While the Fed’s rate cut bets and a softer risk tone are supporting gold’s recovery, the US Dollar’s strength may cap any significant gains in the near term. From a technical standpoint, gold needs to surpass key resistance levels around $2,670-$2,672 to resume its uptrend. The outcome of the US PPI report will be crucial in determining the next direction for the precious metal as it heads into the weekend.

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Analysis Currencies Forex News Market Forecasts News USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Markets Look to Sell Rallies into 150 – Rabobank

USD/JPY: Markets Look to Sell Rallies into 150 – Rabobank The USD/JPY currency pair has been at the center of market discussions in recent months, especially as the USD continues to outperform its peers in the G10 currency group. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has had a turbulent summer, affected by unexpected policy changes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and subsequent economic shifts. In this article, we’ll explore the factors driving USD/JPY movements and Rabobank’s forecast to sell rallies as the pair approaches the 150 level. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles USD Outperforms G10 Currencies Strong USD Dominates Markets in October So far in October, the US Dollar (USD) has been the best-performing currency among the G10 nations, maintaining its upward momentum by a significant margin. The strength of the USD has been bolstered by several key factors, including expectations for ongoing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, resilient economic growth in the United States, and safe-haven demand as global markets experience volatility. This dominance has pressured currencies like the JPY, which has been on the back foot, and is likely to continue its struggle in the near term. The USD/JPY pair, in particular, has become a focal point for traders, with the market paying close attention to both the strength of the US economy and the shifting landscape in Japan’s monetary policy. JPY’s Roller Coaster Summer: BoJ’s Surprise Rate Hike Unwinding of the JPY-Funded Carry Trade One of the primary drivers of recent volatility in the JPY was the surprise decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates at its July policy meeting. This move took markets by surprise, as the BoJ had been known for its ultra-dovish stance for years, particularly in a global environment where other central banks had been raising rates to combat inflation. The decision to raise rates led to a rapid unwinding of the JPY-funded carry trade, which had been a popular strategy among investors seeking higher returns in other currencies. The carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency like the JPY to invest in higher-yielding assets, quickly lost its appeal as Japan’s rates began to rise. As a result, the JPY saw significant volatility as traders rushed to unwind these positions, creating sharp movements in the USD/JPY pair. Medium-Term Outlook for USD/JPY: Downward Trend Expected BoJ’s Slow Normalization of Policy According to Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley, the medium-term outlook for USD/JPY is expected to be lower. The BoJ is slowly normalizing its policy settings, reflecting an economy that is gradually moving away from the deflationary pressures that have plagued Japan for decades. For years, Japan has battled disinflation and deflation, with the BoJ implementing policies such as negative interest rates and massive asset purchases to stimulate growth and inflation. However, as the Japanese economy begins to shed this deflationary mindset, the BoJ’s policy is expected to follow suit. The central bank has already begun making gradual adjustments, with the July rate hike being the first significant step toward policy normalization. This trend is likely to continue, especially as Japan’s economy strengthens and inflation begins to pick up. Optimism for Japan’s Economic Growth Wage Growth and Domestic Consumption One of the key factors driving optimism about Japan’s economic future is the expectation of wage growth. According to Foley, there is growing optimism that the coming spring will bring another round of strong wage deals for unionized workers. These wage increases are crucial for stimulating domestic consumption, as higher wages lead to increased consumer spending, which in turn boosts economic growth and corporate profitability. Wage growth has long been a challenge in Japan, but recent developments suggest that this may be changing. As companies begin to offer higher wages, consumers will have more disposable income, supporting broader economic recovery. Structural Reforms in Japan Stock Exchange Governance and Investment Promotion In addition to wage growth, structural reforms are taking place in Japan that are likely to support long-term economic growth. Changes in stock exchange governance are one example, as Japan aims to create a more competitive and transparent financial system. These reforms are designed to attract both domestic and foreign investment, supporting the country’s long-term growth prospects. Additionally, the Japanese government has been actively promoting investment, particularly in key areas such as technology. Japan’s collaboration with the United States in areas like tech innovation is also expected to enhance the country’s economic standing on the global stage. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to position Japan as a key player in emerging industries, further strengthening the economy. Near-Term Risks: USD Strength Keeps JPY Under Pressure Impact of a Strong USD While the long-term outlook for the Japanese Yen is improving, near-term risks remain. The strength of the USD is expected to keep the JPY on the back foot in the short term, as US economic performance continues to outpace that of Japan. Rabobank notes that the USD’s dominance could persist in the coming months, particularly if US inflation remains elevated and the Fed maintains its hawkish stance on interest rates. The market’s focus on US inflation data and the Fed’s monetary policy decisions will likely continue to influence the direction of USD/JPY. If the USD remains strong, the JPY could struggle to gain ground in the near term, despite the positive economic developments in Japan. Rabobank’s Strategy: Sell Rallies into USD/JPY 150 Trading Strategy for USD/JPY Rabobank’s strategy for USD/JPY involves selling into rallies as the pair approaches the 150 level. Foley notes that while the JPY is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to USD strength, the medium-term outlook suggests a downward trend for the pair. As the BoJ continues to normalize its policy and Japan’s economy strengthens, the JPY is expected to appreciate over time. For traders, this means that any rallies toward the 150 level in USD/JPY could present selling opportunities. Rabobank’s view is that the pair is likely to head lower over

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Analysis Currencies EUR/USD EUR/USD News Market Forecasts

EUR/USD Remains Fragile as Traders Await US Inflation Data

EUR/USD Remains Fragile as Traders Await US Inflation Data The EUR/USD currency pair continues to exhibit weakness as traders brace for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September. The pair, which recently broke below key support at 1.0950, faces additional selling pressure due to a combination of US dollar strength and expectations of further monetary policy easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). This analysis delves into the key market drivers affecting EUR/USD, including the latest developments from both the United States and Europe. US Dollar Strength Ahead of CPI Data The US Dollar (USD) has maintained its upward momentum ahead of the much-anticipated CPI data, which is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, is trading close to a fresh seven-week high near 103.00. Inflation Expectations for September Economists predict that the annual core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—will have grown at a steady pace of 3.2%. Meanwhile, annual headline CPI is expected to decelerate to 2.3%, down from 2.5% in August. For the month-on-month figures, both headline and core CPI are forecasted to have risen modestly by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Impact on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook Despite the upcoming inflation data, the impact on the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s interest rate outlook is expected to be moderate. Recent commentary from Fed officials suggests confidence in inflation trends, with expectations that price pressures are on track to return to the 2% target. However, Fed policymakers are also highly focused on labor market dynamics, as evidenced by their decision to vote unanimously for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in the September policy meeting to stimulate job growth. However, if inflation figures unexpectedly exceed forecasts, there could be renewed concerns about inflationary pressures persisting, which may influence market expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Fed. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles ECB Dovish Sentiment Weighs on the Euro EUR/USD Faces Selling Pressure Amid ECB Rate Cut Expectations The Euro is underperforming against its major peers, with a majority of ECB officials signaling the potential for further rate cuts by year-end. The ECB is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 bps, with the market pricing in a 25-bps cut at each of the remaining policy meetings this year. This dovish sentiment has placed significant pressure on EUR/USD, contributing to its decline toward 1.0930 in Thursday’s European session. Inflation Eases in the Eurozone The ECB’s stance on rate cuts has been bolstered by recent data showing easing inflationary pressures in the Eurozone. The September flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated to 1.8%—its lowest level since April 2021. This marked slowdown in inflation has reassured policymakers that risks of sustained price pressures are diminishing, paving the way for further monetary easing. German Economic Struggles Adding to the Euro’s woes are growing concerns about the economic outlook for Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy. On Wednesday, the German Economic Ministry revised its growth forecast for 2023, now predicting a 0.2% decline in overall output. This contrasts with earlier projections of 0.3% growth, with the downward revision attributed to structural issues and ongoing geopolitical tensions. A contraction in Germany’s economy would have a significant negative impact on the Eurozone as a whole, further weakening the Euro. German Retail Sales Show Mixed Results While the broader economic outlook is grim, some positive data emerged from Germany’s Retail Sales report. Annual retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending that contributes to inflationary pressures, expanded by 2.1% in August, recovering from a 1.6% contraction in July. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales grew by 1.6%, slightly faster than the 1.5% increase seen in July. However, these figures are unlikely to offset the overall negative sentiment surrounding the Euro. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Under Pressure Breakdown of Key Support Levels EUR/USD extended its decline toward 1.0930 after breaking below the crucial support level of 1.0950 on Wednesday. The currency pair also delivered a breakdown of a Double Top chart pattern on the daily timeframe, which had formed after failing to hold the September 11 low of 1.1000. This technical breakdown suggests further weakness ahead. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicates Bearish Momentum The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating that bearish momentum is likely to persist. With RSI levels this low, the pair could experience additional downside pressure in the near term. Key Support and Resistance Levels On the downside, the next key support level to watch is near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0900. A break below this level could signal further declines. On the upside, the pair will face major resistance at the September 11 low of 1.1000, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1090. Daily Digest: Key Market Movers for EUR/USD EUR/USD Vulnerable Ahead of Key Data Releases The EUR/USD remains fragile ahead of the US CPI data for September. While inflation expectations are moderate, any surprise uptick in the data could push the USD higher, putting more pressure on the Euro. Meanwhile, the ECB’s dovish stance and concerns over Germany’s economic outlook are weighing heavily on the Euro, keeping the currency pair under significant selling pressure. Technically, the break below 1.0950 and the Double Top formation signal further downside potential, with the next major support level at 1.0900. With key data releases on the horizon and both the Fed and ECB taking center stage, the outlook for EUR/USD remains uncertain. Traders should closely monitor developments in both inflation and central bank policy for clues on the pair’s next moves.

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Analysis Commodities Gold Market Forecasts

Gold Price Bounces From Multi-Week Low But Upside Remains Limited Ahead of US CPI Data

Gold Price Bounces From Multi-Week Low But Upside Remains Limited Ahead of US CPI Data Gold price (XAU/USD) has seen some positive movement on Thursday, bouncing off a nearly three-week low and snapping a six-day losing streak. However, this uptick lacks solid bullish conviction, with the market awaiting the release of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will likely influence future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decisions and gold’s direction. Market Overview: Gold Price Movement and Key Factors The gold price has recently been in a downtrend, testing the $2,605-$2,604 range, its lowest point in nearly three weeks. The recent decline has largely been driven by expectations surrounding the Fed’s upcoming interest rate cut and the strong performance of the US Dollar (USD), which has acted as a cap on any meaningful gold price recovery. The slight rebound in gold prices could be attributed to repositioning trades ahead of the US inflation data release. Investors are closely monitoring the CPI numbers as these figures may impact the size of the Fed’s next rate cut in November. Given the non-yielding nature of gold, expectations for a rate cut are key drivers for its price movement. US Dollar Strength Limits Gold Price Gains The consensus among market participants is that the Fed will likely lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) in November. This expectation has led to elevated yields on US government bonds, keeping the USD at an eight-week high. The continued strength of the USD presents a challenge for gold prices, which typically move inversely to the dollar. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remains above the 4% mark, further dampening gold’s potential for a strong rally. Gold’s upside potential is capped as long as the USD remains bullish and interest rates continue to provide attractive returns to investors in government bonds, reducing demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles Daily Digest of Market Movers: Limited Upside for Gold Amid Fed Speculations FOMC Meeting Minutes: Insights Into Fed’s Rate Cut Plans The minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that the majority of Fed officials supported a 50 basis point rate cut, with confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. However, some participants favored a more conservative 25 bps rate reduction, citing factors such as: This debate among Fed officials has kept the USD strong, pushing it to near a two-month high, which limits the upside for gold. Fed Officials’ Perspectives on Future Policy Several key Fed figures have weighed in on the ongoing debate regarding rate cuts: Upcoming US CPI Report: The Next Key Driver for Gold Investors are now pricing in a higher chance of a 25 bps rate cut in November, with a 20% probability that the Fed might leave rates unchanged. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to provide fresh impetus for the market. If inflation data comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce the USD’s strength and limit gold’s potential for significant gains. Geopolitical Tensions Supporting Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset Beyond the Fed’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are providing some support to gold as a safe-haven asset. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s warning of a “lethal, precise, and surprising” strike against Iran has increased risk aversion in the markets. This could lend support to gold prices in the short term, especially if the geopolitical situation escalates. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment for Gold Dominates Short-Term Trading Range Breakdown From a technical perspective, the gold price recently broke below the $2,630 level, which marked the lower boundary of its short-term trading range. This breakdown has strengthened the case for bearish traders. While oscillators on the daily chart are still in positive territory, they have been losing traction. The price has managed to hold above the $2,600 mark, but traders are waiting for a decisive break below this level before positioning for further downside. If gold breaks below the $2,600 level, it could extend its losses towards the $2,560 support zone. From there, the next major targets are the $2,535-$2,530 region, with the potential for a decline towards the $2,500 psychological mark if bearish momentum continues. Immediate Resistance Levels On the flip side, the $2,630-$2,635 range, which acted as the lower boundary of the recent trading range, now serves as an immediate resistance level. A move beyond this zone could provide some short-term bullish momentum, but any gains are likely to be capped around the $2,657-$2,658 horizontal barrier. If the price manages to break through this resistance, the next key level to watch would be the $2,670-$2,672 supply zone. Beyond this, bulls might aim to challenge the all-time high near the $2,685-$2,686 region, reached in September. A sustained move beyond the $2,700 mark would signal a continuation of the multi-month uptrend, but for now, this seems unlikely given the current market conditions. Limited Upside for Gold Amid Fed Uncertainty and Strong USD While gold has managed to bounce off its multi-week low, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. The combination of a strong USD, elevated bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s future rate cuts suggests that the upside for gold remains limited in the near term. Traders should keep a close eye on the upcoming US CPI report for clues about inflation and the Fed’s next steps, as this data will likely set the tone for gold’s direction in the coming weeks.

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Broker Analysis Top Brokers

RoboForex Review 2024: Is It a Good Choice for Traders?

RoboForex Review 2024: Is It a Good Choice for Traders? RoboForex has been a prominent player in the Forex and CFD brokerage market since its founding in 2009. Known for its diverse range of trading platforms, tools, and instruments, RoboForex has attracted both novice and experienced traders alike. In this 2024 review, we will explore the broker’s key features, fees, trading conditions, and more to help you decide if it’s the right fit for you. Key Features of RoboForex 1. Regulation and Safety RoboForex is regulated by the IFSC (International Financial Services Commission of Belize) under license number 000138/210. While the IFSC is not considered a top-tier regulatory body like FCA or ASIC, RoboForex offers negative balance protection, segregated client funds, and compensation under the Financial Commission’s Compensation Fund, ensuring a certain level of safety for its clients. 2. Trading Platforms RoboForex offers a wide range of trading platforms, catering to different trader preferences: This variety of platforms makes RoboForex a versatile broker suitable for different trading styles and strategies. Trading Conditions 1. Account Types RoboForex offers a range of account types tailored to different trading needs: 2. Leverage RoboForex offers flexible leverage options, which can go up to 2000:1 for non-EU traders. For those under tighter regulatory jurisdictions (such as in Europe), the leverage is capped at 30:1, complying with ESMA regulations. 3. Spreads & Commissions RoboForex provides competitive spreads, especially on their ECN and Prime accounts, with spreads as low as 0.0 pips on major pairs like EUR/USD. The Pro and ProCent accounts have spreads starting from 1.3 pips but don’t carry commissions, making them ideal for beginners. Assets and Instruments RoboForex boasts over 12,000 trading instruments across multiple asset classes: The wide variety of instruments makes RoboForex an appealing broker for traders looking to diversify their portfolios across multiple markets. Fees and Costs 1. Deposit & Withdrawal Fees 2. Inactivity Fee RoboForex charges an inactivity fee for accounts that have been dormant for 12 months. This fee is $10 per month, so it’s advisable to maintain activity in your account to avoid extra costs. Customer Support RoboForex offers 24/7 multilingual customer support, which is a significant advantage, especially for traders operating in different time zones. Support is available via: The support team is known for being responsive and knowledgeable, which adds a level of reassurance for new and existing traders. Education and Research Tools RoboForex offers various educational materials, including: The educational content is quite basic but sufficient for beginner traders. More advanced traders may find the market analysis useful but might need to supplement it with third-party resources. RoboForex Copy Trading: CopyFX One of the standout features of RoboForex is CopyFX, a social trading platform that allows you to follow and copy the trades of successful traders. This is ideal for beginners who may not have the time or expertise to trade themselves but want to benefit from more experienced traders’ strategies. Pros and Cons of RoboForex Pros: Cons: Is RoboForex Worth It in 2024? RoboForex continues to be a solid choice for traders of all experience levels in 2024. With a variety of account types, platforms, and instruments, it caters to different trading needs, from beginners looking for cent accounts to experienced traders who require ECN conditions. The availability of high leverage, especially for international traders, and the variety of assets, including a strong focus on cryptocurrencies and stocks, make RoboForex stand out. The CopyFX platform is also a major plus for those interested in copy trading. However, traders seeking a broker with top-tier regulation might have reservations about RoboForex’s IFSC oversight. But with features like negative balance protection, tight spreads, and no hidden costs on deposits, RoboForex remains a competitive broker in 2024 for those looking for flexibility and a wide range of trading opportunities.

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Broker Analysis Top Brokers

FxPro Review 2024: Comprehensive Look at a Leading Forex Broker

FxPro Review 2024: Comprehensive Look at a Leading Forex Broker FxPro continues to be one of the top choices for forex and CFD traders in 2024. With over 15 years of experience in the market, FxPro has built a solid reputation for reliability, innovation, and a customer-first approach. In this review, we’ll take a closer look at the features, platforms, pricing, regulation, and customer support FxPro offers in 2024, helping you determine if it’s the right broker for your trading needs. Overview of FxPro FxPro is a globally recognized online forex broker, providing a wide range of trading services for retail and institutional traders. The broker is known for offering access to over 70 currency pairs, along with CFDs on futures, indices, shares, metals, energies, and cryptocurrencies. With a focus on transparency and security, FxPro operates under strict regulatory standards, making it a trusted platform for both beginner and advanced traders. Key Features Trading Platforms 1. MetaTrader 4 (MT4) MetaTrader 4 remains a popular platform for traders in 2024, offering robust charting tools, automated trading (Expert Advisors), and a wide range of indicators. FxPro provides seamless access to MT4 with competitive spreads and fast execution, making it ideal for forex traders. 2. MetaTrader 5 (MT5) For those looking for more advanced features, MT5 offers additional timeframes, more order types, and in-depth market analysis tools. It is well-suited for both forex and CFD trading. 3. cTrader cTrader is known for its user-friendly interface, especially for those focused on manual trading. The platform provides a detailed level of market depth and innovative charting features. Traders who prefer direct market access (DMA) often favor this platform. 4. FxPro Edge FxPro’s proprietary platform, Edge, is a web-based solution designed for simplicity. It allows traders to place trades quickly without needing to download any software. This platform is particularly useful for new traders or those who need a lightweight, accessible solution. Account Types FxPro offers a variety of account types to suit different trading styles and requirements: 1. Standard Account 2. MT4/MT5 Account 3. cTrader Account 4. VIP Account Spreads and Fees FxPro offers competitive pricing, especially for forex pairs. The broker provides variable spreads that change according to market conditions. On average: Deposit & Withdrawal Fees FxPro does not charge fees on deposits or withdrawals, although your payment provider may. Supported payment methods include credit/debit cards, bank transfers, and popular e-wallets like PayPal, Skrill, and Neteller. Regulation & Safety FxPro is one of the most well-regulated brokers, operating under licenses from: All client funds are segregated in top-tier banks, ensuring security in the event of insolvency. Additionally, FxPro participates in investor compensation schemes, offering further protection. Customer Support FxPro provides multilingual support 24/5 via live chat, email, and phone. The broker has earned high praise for its responsive and knowledgeable support team. Traders also have access to an extensive knowledge base with educational articles, webinars, and tutorials. Educational Resources FxPro offers comprehensive educational materials that cater to both beginners and experienced traders. In 2024, the broker has expanded its educational offerings with: Pros & Cons of FxPro 2024 Pros: Cons: Is FxPro Worth It in 2024? FxPro remains a strong contender for traders of all levels in 2024. Its well-rounded offering of multiple platforms, a wide variety of tradable instruments, and excellent customer support make it ideal for anyone looking for a reliable and secure trading environment. Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned professional, FxPro provides the tools and resources necessary to trade effectively in today’s markets.

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