Bitcoin holds around $102,800 after a four-day sell-off as investors await the Fed interest rate decision, which might trigger volatility. Market sentiment is still cautious due to the fact that Nvidia stock has recently dived after the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI search technology firm, thereby spreading its shock waves across crypto markets and sending Bitcoin down 2.6%. Analysts suggest that a dovish Fed stance would favor Bitcoin, whereas a hawkish outlook could be positive for the U.S. dollar and risky assets would feel the pressure. Technical indicators give mixed signals, as RSI shows minor bullish momentum but MACD hints at a downtrend. If Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test the $90,000 support level, whereas a breakout can push it toward $109,000.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• Federal Reserve’s interest rate stand could trigger the volatility of Bitcoin. A dovish stance can pump up the price of BTC, while a hawkish one might strengthen the US dollar and force crypto prices lower.
• Bitcoin correlated more with U.S. equities when Nvidia fell by 17% following the increase of DeepSeek. The decline pushed BTC 2.6%. Market nerves remain elevated after the shock.
• Bitcoin hovers around $102,800, with RSI signaling mild bullish momentum but MACD showing bearish signs. A drop below $100,000 could test $90,000, while resistance stands at $109,000.
• CME futures premiums briefly turned negative, signaling professional traders’ caution. Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) saw net outflows, reflecting a de-risking trend amid broader economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s price remains at $102,800, facing potential volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The emergence of DeepSeek has created a sharp stock drop from Nvidia, bringing caution to the crypto market that has led to a 2.6% BTC decline. Technical indicators point in mixed signals as RSI shows mild bullish momentum while MACD hints of a downtrend. Market sentiment gets further shaken up by CME futures turning negative and significant outflows from Bitcoin ETPs. If BTC falls below $100,000, it could test the $90,000 support, or a breakout above could push it towards $109,000.
Bitcoin is trading around $102,800 as it awaits the Fed’s interest rate decision. The stock drop of Nvidia and market caution have pressured BTC. Key levels include $90,000 support and $109,000 resistance.
• Federal Reserve decision, upcoming could drive Bitcoin volatility, with dovish stance supporting BTC and hawkish tone strengthening the U.S. dollar.
• Nvidia stock dropped 17% after the rise of DeepSeek, causing a 2.6% fall in Bitcoin, reflecting the increasing correlation of BTC with the U.S. equities.
• RSI is showing a mild bullish momentum, while MACD is pointing towards a potential downtrend.
• A breach below $100,000 could push BTC toward $90,000, or a good rally could surge it to $109,000.
• CME futures briefly turned negative, indicating careful trading among professionals and reflecting a larger de-risking trend.
• Bitcoin ETPs experienced net weekly inflows of 6,698 BTC but had significant outflow worth 6,900 BTC on Monday, which showed how uncertain the market was.
• Trump’s push for lower interest rates could impact the Fed’s policy and, in turn, influence Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory.
Bitcoin’s price remains around $102,800, with market participants closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, which could trigger significant volatility. A dovish stance from the Fed might support Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish approach could put downward pressure on risky assets, including crypto. More recently, though, is the 17% stock drop by Nvidia due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has led to market volatility and dragged Bitcoin down by 2.6%. The correlation in BTC with U.S. equities continues to rise, which means that any crypto price action seems to be depending more on traditional financial market movements.
BITCOIN Daily Chart
TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA
Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, stock market trends, and institutional investor sentiment shaping its trajectory. The growing correlation between BTC and U.S. equities, as seen with Nvidia’s sharp drop impacting Bitcoin, highlights the broader financial market’s influence on crypto assets. Traders are also monitoring the Bitcoin ETPs’ liquidity trend, where outflows in the recent past are indicating a market that is somewhat cautious. On the other hand, the derivatives market, especially the CME futures, indicates professional traders de-risking ahead of the potential volatility. With these dynamics in place, Bitcoin’s short-term price movements will be influenced by external catalysts, technical strength, and market sentiment.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin’s technical indicator picture is more mixed, at best. There may be both sides to the tale. The Relative Strength Index is reported at 55, bouncing off the neutral midpoint of 50. This tends to suggest slight uptick buying momentum. Nonetheless, the MACD recently formed a bearish crossover, suggesting downward momentum ahead. BTC has been probing its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $98,223. If this break lower is confirmed, it may well accelerate losses towards the next significant support area at $90,000. On the upside, if Bitcoin can stay above $102,000 and continues to build upward momentum, then it could head towards the $109,000 resistance area. With mixed signals from indicators and increasing volatility expected due to macroeconomic events, traders are cautious about the next move for Bitcoin.
FORECAST
If Bitcoin can stay above the $102,000 support level and gather momentum, a rally toward $109,000 is possible in the near term. A break above this resistance could trigger a stronger bullish move, potentially targeting $115,000 in the coming weeks. The RSI is above 50, and thus, mildly bullish momentum prevails, which shows that buyers are slowly starting to take over. A dovish Federal Reserve policy or a weak U.S. dollar might even add more pressure upwards, driving institutional investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. A boost in CME futures open interest and inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) would validate a bullish stance further.
On the negative side, in case Bitcoin breaches below $100,000 and closes below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), selling pressure might gain traction and drag BTC toward the support zone of $90,000. The recent MACD bearish crossover suggests that the downside risks are still valid, and a further loss could be witnessed if market sentiment weakens. A hawkish Fed stance or a stronger U.S. dollar could bring Bitcoin lower due to investors opting for safer assets. In addition, the Nvidia-led volatility in the stock market has introduced more uncertainty, and a sustained sell-off in equities might spill over into crypto markets and put more pressure on Bitcoin’s price. The traders will look at CME futures activity and ETP flows. An increase in outflows along with negative premiums may indicate that the bearish trend is getting stronger.
