Bitcoin surged to a record $109,588 on Monday, piercing the psychological barrier of $100,000 as traders and investors positioned themselves for potential market swings ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. The price spike coincided with a sharp increase in Bitcoin’s open interest, which crossed $71 billion, and options volume nearly doubling to $4.49 billion. Bullish signals were also flashed by the technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). On the other hand, at-the-money implied volatility surged to 83.5%, as short-term turbulence would be expected ahead of Trump’s inauguration, buoyed by rising demand for upside leverage and traders’ bullish sentiments.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• Bitcoin surges past $109,588 in trading, crossing $100,000 mark, after bullish sentiment as Trump prepares for inauguration.

• BTC’s implied volatility spikes to 83.5%, indicating traders are preparing for immediate price action and short-term turbulence in the crypto market.

• Bitcoin open interest reaches $71 billion, showing growing institutional investor participation and renewed confidence in crypto markets.

• RSI at 66 and MACD trending upwards suggest that traders are still set for further upside as they position for leverage.

Bitcoin has hit a historic high of $109,588, breaking the $100,000 mark amid growing excitement ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. The rally, fueled by bullish sentiment and institutional interest, saw Bitcoin’s open interest reach $71 billion and options volume double to $4.49 billion. Technical indicators such as the RSI at 66 and an upward-sloping MACD support a bullish outlook, while implied volatility spiked to 83.5%, indicating traders anticipate significant short-term price swings. The increased demand for upside leverage underscores growing confidence that Bitcoin remains poised to maintain strength even in rising volatility.

Bitcoin price touched a new record of $109,588 as the $100,000 level broke before Trump’s inauguration. At the same time, open interest reaches $71 billion and implied volatility shoots to 83.5%, meaning the market is in anticipation of a short-term rough ride and a higher move yet to come.

• BTC rises to $109,588; surmounts $100,000 threshold ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

• Open interest tops $71 billion in bitcoin; institutions and retail buyers enter in bigger numbers.

• Options trading volume doubles to $4.49 billion, indicating increasing activity in derivatives markets.

• Implied volatility surges to 83.5%, as traders expect short-term market fluctuations around the inauguration.

• RSI at 66 and upward-sloping MACD indicate that Bitcoin prices will continue to rise.

• A whopping 54% of BTC premiums are spent on call options, which indicates that traders are bullish.

• Traders expect immediate price turbulence but steadier movements after the inauguration event.

Bitcoin hit an unprecedented high at $109,588, hours ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. The price break-through over $100,000 is the significant psychological factor which is backed by increased bullish trading and fresh interest from institutional investors. Bitcoin’s open interest reached a whopping $71 billion with options trading volume more than doubled to $4.49 billion in recent times. Other technical indicators include a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66 and an upward-sloping Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), both of which continue to indicate strength in Bitcoin’s upward momentum and give traders reason to believe it will continue in this direction.

BITCOIN Daily Price Chart.

Source: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA

The volatility in the crypto market is also rising, as at-the-money implied volatility in 1-day options has skyrocketed to 83.5%, while 7-day options have also reached 73.3%. This sharp increase reflects expectations of short-term price swings amid the uncertainty surrounding the inauguration. Data reveals that 54% of Bitcoin premiums are being spent on call options, signaling strong demand for upside leverage as traders position for potential gains. While the immediate outlook shows turbulence, market experts predict steadier movements in Bitcoin prices beyond the inauguration, as optimism and institutional demand continue to shape the cryptocurrency’s bullish trajectory.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis shows a very strong bullish trend for Bitcoin, supporting its run to an all-time high of $109,588. The Relative Strength Index is at 66, indicating healthy upward momentum without being overbought. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows consecutive green histogram bars, reinforcing the case for further gains. These indicators highlight growing buying pressure and a sustained trend in Bitcoin’s price movement. Additionally, rising open interest and options volume suggest significant market participation, while the positive skew in options pricing indicates traders’ focus on upside leverage. Together, these metrics suggest a strong technical foundation for Bitcoin’s ongoing rally.

 FORECAST

The technical and market sentiment indicators strongly favor further upside in Bitcoin’s price movement. With the RSI trending upwards and MACD flashing bullish momentum, Bitcoin is well-positioned for continued growth. Current demand for call options, at 54% of the premiums on BTC, shows a positive outlook by traders. Also, institutional involvement, as indicated by rising open interest to $71 billion, sets up a strong support for the uptrend. Bitcoin can then sustain its support above $100,000 and continue to move upward, possibly breaking into new price regions in the near term.

The positive sentiment is thus tempered by short-term downside risks in Bitcoin as volatility has become elevated. Implied volatility is at 83.5%, which means there is a likelihood of sharp price movements. Market turbulence could occur as a result of events associated with Trump’s inauguration, thus leading to corrections or profit-taking by traders. The crypto market also tends to over-leverage, which may exaggerate price swings if there is a sudden change in sentiment. Should Bitcoin lose its $100,000 support level, it could pull back and test lower levels before stabilizing. The traders should be on the lookout for sudden shifts in momentum.