Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $116,000 and $120,000, reflecting market indecision ahead of several key macroeconomic events. Despite recent selling pressure, including a massive 80,000 BTC OTC sale by Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, supported by consistent institutional demand and inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $157.02 million on Monday alone. But with key US employment, GDP, interest rate, and tariff announcements due this week, volatility in markets may rise sharply. Traders are nervous as technical charts point to declining momentum, and the SEC’s hesitation in deciding on ETFs makes the near-term outlook even more uncertain.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• Future US employment data, GDP announcement, Fed interest rate move, and tariff deadline might lead to sudden price fluctuations in Bitcoin.

• Further positive inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $157.02 million injected on Monday, reflect increased institutional demand in the face of market consolidation.

• A fall below $116,000 is likely to see a decline towards the 50-day EMA at $112,526, while a close above $120,000 on the daily chart is likely to see a move towards the all-time high of $123,218.

• The US SEC has delayed decisions on the Truth Social BTC ETF and other altcoin-focused ETFs, prolonging uncertainty but possibly setting up future bullish catalysts.

Bitcoin is still trading in a tight range of $116,000 to $120,000, marking a period of consolidation as traders wait for major macroeconomic events that will inject substantial volatility into the market. In spite of a large recent OTC sale by Galaxy Digital of 80,000 BTC, the price has exhibited impressive resilience underpinned by robust institutional buying and steady inflows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. While this is indicative of underlying bullishness, caution still dominates as pending announcements including the Fed rate decision, US GDP data, and tariff deadlines hang over markets and have the potential to induce sudden market responses in either direction.

Bitcoin holds range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 while investors wait for key US economic announcements. Firm ETF inflows and institutional demand support it, but volatility will increase with the pending macro events.

• Bitcoin is range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 after reaching an all-time high at $123,218 on July 14.

• ETF flows continue to be firm, with US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $157.02 million of net inflows on Monday.

• BTC remains resilient despite a gargantuan 80,000 BTC OTC sale from Galaxy Digital, underpinned by ongoing institutional buying.

• Volatility remains at annual lows but is poised to increase amidst pending US economic releases and policy announcements.

• Notable macro events for this week are US employment releases, GDP data, Fed interest rate announcement, and Trump tariff deadline.

• Technical indicators flash caution – RSI points downward and MACD shows a bearish crossover.

• The SEC delays ETF decisions, including Truth Social’s Bitcoin ETF, adding short-term uncertainty but long-term bullish potential.

Bitcoin’s price action over the past two weeks has remained steady within a defined range, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. In spite of wider volatility, investor attitude seems to be gaining traction, reflected in steady inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs saw a significant $157.02 million in inflows on Monday alone, the third day running of net positive flows. Institutional buying and treasury vehicle accumulation still provide support to Bitcoin, cushioning it against macro sell-offs, as was seen in the latest 80,000 BTC OTC trade by Galaxy Digital.

BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART

SOURCE: TradingView

The overall market is gearing up for a week that is going to see major macroeconomic events that could drive sentiment and investor action across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Those announcements of US jobs, GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve interest rate choice are likely to define investor expectations. In the meantime, the SEC postponement to approve a number of crypto-related ETFs, such as the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, reflects the continued regulatory uncertainty but also implies increasing institutional focus on digital assets. As Bitcoin remains to attract both institutional and retail attention, the interest is on how outside economic and policy conditions will influence its next directional direction.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is trading in a period of consolidation between $116,000 and $120,000, with indicators exhibiting weakened bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 58 on the daily chart—still above middle but falling—indicating diminishing buying pressure. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has demonstrated a bearish crossover, which could signal short-term downfall. If Bitcoin drops below the $116,000 support level on a daily close basis, it might engender a fall down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $112,526. On the other hand, a strong push higher above $120,000 might recalculate the route to retesting the recent all-time high of $123,218.

FORECAST

If Bitcoin can close and remain above the $120,000 resistance level, it may find itself with bullish momentum and targeting a retest of its new all-time high at $123,218. Breaking through this level would tend to induce new buying interest, and possibly push BTC into fresh highs. Ongoing inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with robust institutional buying, may be the support needed for a breakout higher, particularly if macroeconomic news or regulatory news is also positive for risk assets.

Conversely, a firm breakout below the $116,000 area of support may lead to further decline, with the next important support at the 50-day EMA around $112,526. Weakening technicals, including the bearish MACD crossover and falling RSI, indicate bearish momentum is building. Moreover, increased volatility in the market due to macroeconomic releases or surprise regulatory announcements has the potential to spark sudden sell-offs, especially in a leveraged market environment, driving further price correction in Bitcoin.