Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading above $114,000 after a strong Q3 showing, with the cryptocurrency closing September up 5.16% and posting a 6.31% gain for the quarter. Institutional demand remains strong, as US-listed spot ETFs recorded a second consecutive day of inflows, while the upcoming launch of altcoin ETFs and historically bullish October trends, dubbed ‘Uptober,’ are fueling optimism. Technical indicators such as support at the 50-day EMA, a daily RSI greater than 50, and a bullish MACD crossover indicate possible upward action towards the $116,000 resistance point but with near-term movements potentially affected by uncertainties like the US government shutdown and less liquidity due to Asian banking holidays.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• Observe if Bitcoin remains above the 50-day EMA level of $113,403, which is crucial for sustaining bullish momentum.

• BTC may target the $116,000 intraday resistance if the upside momentum prevails.

• Continued inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs as well as possible altcoin ETF launches may further augment price rebounding.

• US government shutdown and diminished liquidity due to Asian banking holidays might affect intraday price action.

Bitcoin is indicating rebounding as it remains above $114,000 levels based on robust institutional appetite as well as favorable technicals. The 50-day EMA of $113,403 has been a support level, and bullish RSI and MACD signals indicate potential strength in the upside direction to $116,000. Past performance trends like the historically robust performance of October—’Uptober’—and soon-to-be-expected altcoin ETF debuts add to the positivity. But risks like the US government shutdown and reduced liquidity on Asian banking holidays may trigger temporary market volatility.

Bitcoin remains above $114,000 on the back of encouraging institutional inflows and upbeat technical indicators. The cryptocurrency may reach $116,000, but short-term volatility is still present given the US government shutdown and lower liquidity in Asian markets.

• Bitcoin closed September above $114,000, returning 5.16% and 6.31% for Q3, respectively.

• BTC was supported near the 50-day EMA at $113,403, important to maintain positive momentum.

• Institutional appetite continues to be robust, with spot ETFs seeing back-to-back days of inflows.

• Seasonal patterns suggest October, or ‘Uptober,’ historically has yielded positive BTC returns.

• Future altcoin ETF launches will likely continue to fuel market sentiment and investor appetite.

• Technicals such as a daily RSI of above 50 and a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential to move higher to $116,000.

• Dangers like the US government shutdown and decreased liquidity from Asian banking holidays may affect near-term price action.

Bitcoin remains robust as it hovers above $114,000 due to robust institutional demand and improving market sentiment. September ended on a good note for BTC with a 5.16% increase, and the third quarter provided a decent 6.31% return. The trend is also supported by flows into US-listed spot ETFs and expectations around altcoin ETF launches, which are likely to bring more investors and drive overall market euphoria.

BITCOIN Daily Chart Price

SOURCE: TradingView

Historically, October has also been a good month for Bitcoin, tending to produce positive returns—a development commonly known as ‘Uptober.’ Moreover, the fourth quarter has also been BTC’s top-performing quarter historically, which could lay the groundwork for new yearly highs. Although risks like the US government shutdown and lower liquidity during Asian banking holidays still linger, overall the outlook for Bitcoin looks positive, fueled by institutional involvement and positive market trends.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is trending bullish as it is still above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $113,403, which serves as a solid support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 53, reflecting increasing buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has made a bullish crossover, which is an indication of a possible upward trend. If BTC manages to hold at this support, it might target the next resistance level of $116,000, or else inability to hold the EMA might create the way towards lower support of $107,245.

FORECAST

If Bitcoin can hold support above the 50-day EMA at $113,403, bull momentum may extend, possibly carrying price toward the $116,000 resistance zone. Ongoing institutional buying, combined with traditionally good October performance and imminent altcoin ETF offerings, may further propel price higher, supporting the overall ‘Uptober’ bulls in the market.

But there are risks that can initiate short-term falls. A break of the 50-day EMA can have BTC retesting support around $107,245. Also, factors like the US government shutdown, postponed economic data releases, and low liquidity on Asian banking holidays can induce short-term volatility and restrict near-term upside potential.