Bitcoin continued to fall this week, dipping more than 10% below its August high of $124,474 and below $110,000 on the back of $1.8 billion in market-wide liquidations, the majority of which were from long positions. Even in light of dovish remarks by Fed Chair Powell and consistent institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, market sentiment remains weak as spot demand offsets and futures remain bearish-leaning. Corporate demand, such as new BTC buys from treasury companies, gives some respite, but technicals indicate fading momentum, prompting traders to be wary before September’s critical macroeconomic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• BTC below $110,000 with major supports at $108,600 and $104,400; a close below may initiate greater losses.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than $567 million inflows this week, a bullish sign that can aid recovery if maintained.
• Coming US core PCE inflation data and the Fed meeting in September have the potential to trigger volatility and dictate BTC’s direction.
• Neutral spot demand vs. bearish perpetual futures indicate risk-averse trader attitudes and latent short-term downward risk.
Bitcoin struggled to maintain ground this week, falling to below $110,000 after a sharp correction of over 10% from its record mid-August high. The sell-off prompted more than $1.8 billion in liquidations, the lion’s share being from long positions, highlighting excessively bullish market leverage. Although dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell and fresh institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs provided some relief, spot demand has switched to a neutral bias and sentiment in futures is weak. As technical indicators signal diminishing momentum, the near-term fate of BTC relies on critical macroeconomic data and if buyers intervene to support critical support levels.
Bitcoin is still in the bearish trap after it had fallen more than 10% from its all-time high, declining below $110,000 on the backdrop of $1.8 billion liquidations. Even with ETF flows and institutional buying, market sentiment remains weak as investors wait for key US inflation figures and Fed policy signals.
• Bitcoin dropped more than 10% from its all-time high of $124,474, trading below $110,000 this week.
• The crypto market witnessed $1.8 billion in liquidations, where 74% were from long positions.
• Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments did not prop up BTC, as bearish pressure continued.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs had $567 million of inflows, indicating renewed interest from institutions.
• Institutional buyers such as Metaplanet and Strategy purchased 3,184 BTC, riding down price movements.
• Technical indicators indicate decreasing momentum, with RSI moving lower and MACD indicating a bearish crossover.
• The next significant move for BTC may be powered by key events in the near future—US core PCE inflation figures and the Fed meeting in September.
Bitcoin struggled through a week as the crypto sector digested more than $1.8 billion in liquidations, predominantly among long positions, exposing the dangers of over-leveraged trading. Institutional and corporate investors remained strong despite the sell-down, and Bitcoin spot ETFs posted inflows exceeding $567 million after a week of catastrophic outflows. Other corporate treasuries, including Metaplanet and Strategy, also seized the opportunity, accumulating thousands of BTC to their total, reaffirming faith in the asset’s long-term value.
BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART
SOURCE: TradingView
Aside from market movement, the presence of Bitcoin globally continues to grow. The Hong Kong Bitcoin Asia conference, the second-largest cryptocurrency conference worldwide, reflected the increasing dominance of BTC in the Asian market. At the same time, Donald Trump’s sons-backed American Bitcoin is set to list on the Nasdaq via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, an initiative which can further solidify Bitcoin’s acceptance into the mainstream. These moves speak to Bitcoin’s durability and the constant inclusion of digital assets in both institutional investment portfolios and the world’s financial markets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin displays weakening momentum after three consecutive weeks of losses since its all-time high of $124,474 in mid-August. The price fell below its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of $110,849, increasing the danger of sliding further towards the 200-day EMA level around $103,974 if selling continues. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 39, indicating strong bearish momentum, but the weekly RSI has moved slightly towards neutral, indicating waning bullish strength. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also indicating a bearish crossover, suggesting potential for an early downtrend to develop unless BTC recovers past resistance of $116,000.
FORECAST
If Bitcoin can resist falling below the $110,000 level and continue to receive institutional inflows into spot ETFs, the recovery could stretch towards near-term resistance levels around $116,000. Institutional buying including corporate treasury buying, combined with more robust global adoption indicators like the impending Nasdaq listing of American Bitcoin, can further fuel sentiment. Alternatively, a dovish result from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting or declining US inflation numbers would also offer upside support, enabling BTC to recover lost ground and potentially stabilize above critical levels.
Alternatively, unable to maintain above the 100-day EMA of $110,849 and successive selling pressure may see Bitcoin lower towards its next area of support at $104,400, with ongoing risk of testing the 200-day EMA at around $103,974. Bearish futures sentiment and declining spot demand mean that buyers are still apprehensive, making BTC susceptible to deeper corrections if macroeconomic reports surprise to the upside and move the US dollar higher. In this case, traders can expect extended consolidation or further declines before Bitcoin tries to recover again.
