Bitcoin fell nearly 5% this week, trading around $109,000 on Friday, as massive liquidations rocked the crypto market and risk sentiment soured. The market witnessed its largest single-day liquidation of the year, wiping out over $1.6 billion in long positions, while another round of sell-offs added further pressure. A dovish Federal Reserve attitude toward rate cuts, increasing geopolitical tensions, softening institutional demand, and the historical “September effect” bore down on Bitcoin’s prospects. While corporate purchasing and future US regulatory talks provide some hope, technical factors indicate bear momentum may take losses into important support points at around $107,000 and $104,000.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• More than $1.65 billion in long positions were liquidated this week, sparking new sell-offs and exposing excessive bullish leverage.
• Powell’s caution against aggressive rate cuts has bolstered the US Dollar and pinched risk assets such as Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $484 million in outflows, ending a four-week positive inflow streak and indicating weaker institutional demand.
• BTC can go further south to $107,000 and even $104,000 should bear pressure persist.
Bitcoin struggled last week, declining close to 5% to move at around $109,000 as the crypto sector experienced its largest liquidation of the year. More than $1.6 billion in longs was liquidated, triggering further sell-offs in the face of cautionary Federal Reserve policies and increasing geopolitical tensions that drove risk-off sentiment. Institutional redemptions from Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to dampen demand, while the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 28, showing increasing investor conservatism. While corporate buying and future US regulatory talks offer hope, technicals suggest continuing bearish pressure with the risk of a larger correction toward key support areas.
Bitcoin declined close to 5% this week to approximately $109,000, weighed by record liquidations and softening institutional appetite. A hawkish Fed bias and geopolitical tensions spurred risk-off sentiment, while technicals indicate further weakness towards key support.
• Bitcoin declined close to 5% this week, trading at approximately $109,000 on Friday.
• The crypto market experienced its biggest single-day liquidation of 2025, erasing $1.65 billion in long positions.
• Further sell-offs towards the end of the week caused further $1.09 billion in liquidations.
• The slow hand of the Fed on rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions added to risk-off sentiment.
• Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $484 million in outflows, ending a four-week inflow streak.
• Institutional buyers such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Capital B stockpiled BTC in their treasuries, offering some comfort.
• Technical indicators (MACD, RSI) reflect bearish momentum with possible falls towards $107,000 and $104,000 levels of support.
Bitcoin experienced a volatile week as the crypto market saw its biggest single-day liquidation event of the year, erasing billions in long positions. The steep decline reflected excessive bullish leverage by traders and prompted general caution throughout the market. The dovish note from the Federal Reserve on imminent rate cuts, combined with rising geopolitical tensions, had a strong impact on investor morale and encouraged risk-off sentiment in the financial markets. At the same time, the “September effect” of a traditionally slow month for Bitcoin remained in the air, contributing to bearish sentiment.
BITCOIN Daily Chart Price
SOURCE: TradingView
Institutional flows were also noteworthy, with Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing $484 million in outflows that put an end to four weeks of positive inflows and signalling fear of declining institutional demand. But not all indicators were negative—company buyers like MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Capital B continued to build their position in Bitcoin, highlighting long-term faith in the asset. Also, the forthcoming US Senate Finance Committee hearing about taxation of digital assets should serve to offer further regulatory insight, potentially paving the way for wider use in the long run.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin exhibits clear symptoms of declining momentum after being unable to remain above $116,000 during the initial part of the month. On the weekly chart, RSI has fallen towards the middle 50 level, indicating waning bull power, while MACD is in a bearish crossover with red histogram bars extending downwards. On the daily chart, BTC is below the 50-day EMA and has fallen below a significant ascending trendline, pointing to higher downside risk. If downward pressure continues, Bitcoin may retest key levels of support at $107,000 and possibly $104,000, with technicals suggesting prolonged bearish forces in the short term.
FORECAST
Conversely, if Bitcoin can stay above the $107,000 support level, it may be the focus of dip-buying by both retail and institutional investors. Healthy corporate accumulation, including recent buying from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, could act as a cushion for further losses. Moreover, prospective regulatory conversations in the US, most notably the Senate Finance Committee’s hearing on taxing digital assets, may provide much-needed clarity and reignite hope within the market. A bounce back above the 50-day EMA would make way for BTC to test resistance zones around $113,000 and, in the process, $118,000 in the near term.
Conversely, if selling pressure persists and Bitcoin convincingly moves below $107,000, additional downside may be initiated, with the subsequent support at around $104,000. The convergence of diminishing institutional appetite, continued ETF outflows, and defensive macroeconomic conditions driven by the Fed’s approach can strengthen bearish mood. Increasing geopolitical risks may also continue to place risk assets under pressure, driving BTC southwards. In this scenario, Bitcoin might witness prolonged consolidation or even a steep fall before discovering its next solid support level.
