Ethereum (ETH) grapples with mixed signals when trading near $2,510, sliding 3% in the face of healthy institutional demand and regulatory confidence. US spot Ethereum ETFs are likely to record an eighth week in a row of net inflows, amounting to almost $2 billion, fueled by increasing adoption, tokenization advancements, and stablecoin legislation updates. Though, ETH is finding it difficult to develop bullish impulses as technical signals warn of a possible “death cross,” which in the past resulted in 35% price drops. Although traders are bullish about the rally beyond $3,000, bearish technicals and macroeconomic volatility may push ETH towards $1,750.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• Observe whether US spot Ethereum ETFs can continue their winning streak and drive cumulative inflows above the $2 billion level, indicating consistent institutional appetite.
• Watch out for next week’s decisions on the GENIUS stablecoin bill and CLARITY bill during Crypto Week (from July 14), which may significantly impact investor attitude.
• Watch Ethereum’s weekly chart—if the 50-SMA falls below the 100-SMA, it may validate a death cross and initiate the possible 35% price decline.
• A breach above the symmetrical triangle pattern and major SMAs near $2,600 would invalidate the bearish setup and rekindle bullish momentum towards $3,000+.
Price action in Ethereum tells a bearish story as bearish technical indicators clash with strong ETF inflows and optimism about regulation. While US spot ETH ETFs have witnessed about $2 billion of net inflows in eight weeks—driven by corporate adoption, tokenization development, and favorable lawmaking—ETH is still resisting at crucial technical levels. The upcoming specter of a “death cross” on the weekly chart, when the 50-period SMA can potentially fall below the 100-period SMA, puts pressure on the ongoing trend. Despite traders positioning for a breakout above $3,000, bearish signals remain at risk of triggering a plunge to $1,750 if validated.
Ethereum is subject to conflicting signals with robust ETF inflows and regulatory optimism balanced by bearish technical trends. A possible death cross might trigger a fall to $1,750, even in the face of bullish trader sentiment targeting a breakout above $3,000.
• Ethereum price fell 3% to $2,510 despite robust institutional inflows.
• US spot ETH ETFs are poised for eight straight weeks of net inflows, close to $2 billion aggregate.
• Tokenization initiatives and Ethereum-centric treasury programs by listed companies provide positive momentum.
• Future US legislation such as the GENIUS and CLARITY bills has the potential to frame market sentiment.
• Almost 80% of ETH call options for July expire above $3,000, indicating bullish positioning.
• Technical indicators signal a possible death cross, in the past leading to 35% drops.
• A break above $2,600 and symmetrical triangle formation may render bearish prognosis useless.
Ethereum remains to draw important institutional attention, with US spot Ethereum ETFs headed for an eighth consecutive week of net inflows, amounting to almost $2 billion. The cause is mostly fueled by expanding faith in Ethereum’s ecosystem, particularly as increasingly public companies start adding Ethereum to their treasury strategies. The aspects like Robinhood’s release of tokenized US stocks on the Arbitrum Layer 2 network show the role Ethereum is playing in digital finance and tokenization.
ETHEREUM DAILY PRICE CHART
SOURCE: TradingView
Regulatory momentum is also contributing to Ethereum’s attractiveness. The next Crypto Week in the US, when lawmakers will be debating important crypto bills such as the GENIUS stablecoin bill, may open the door to a more organized and favorable regulatory framework. These developments point to increasing government interest in establishing a clear and effective setting for blockchain technologies, with Ethereum at the forefront of this new digital reality.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum is indicating signs of potential vulnerability as it gets close to a critical bearish signal: the death cross. On its weekly chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is near to falling below the 100-period SMA, which in the past has indicated a downtrend. Previously, these crossovers have led to price declines of more than 35%. Moreover, ETH has also resisted strongly at the $2,600 level and lost momentum upward. The Relative Strength Index is neutral, but the Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, indicating indecision in the direction of the market and that there is no significant bullish pressure.
FORECAST
If Ethereum holds up at current support levels and moves above the $2,600 resistance level, it can set the stage for a bullish advance towards $3,000, or even higher. Ongoing institutional flows through ETFs, favorable legislative results from the forthcoming Crypto Week, and greater adoption through tokenization initiatives and corporate treasury programs can be good catalysts for further gains. A breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern would also support the bullish case, further confirming trader expectations for a sharp price rise.
Conversely, a failure to re-take important resistance levels and confirmation of the expected death cross could trigger a sharp drop in the price of Ethereum. Past behavior would indicate a potential 35% drop that could move ETH to the $1,750 support area. Further stress from macroeconomic uncertainty, for example, from the Federal Reserve’s actions or geopolitical events, may further tense investor attitudes and speed a bearish move. Failure to follow through on ETF flows or adverse regulatory surprises will also contribute to bear pressure.
