Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its all-time high amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and improved economic data. While Trump’s three-month tariff suspension on Mexico and Canada gives the market hope, concern for the bigger picture still has his broader trade policies and the inflationary impact sustaining gold as a safe haven. Even on near-term consolidation, the overall trend remains bullish, with strong supports around $2,773-2,772 going to limit the downward moves. Investors remain cautious ahead of US economic data releases, which could influence both the USD and gold’s trajectory.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• Gold loses ground from records as a resurgent US dollar and rising Treasury yields cap near-term upside potential for the yellow metal.

• Fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs and their implications on inflation will continue to prop up gold as a safe-haven asset even as US-Mexico-Canada relations stabilize.

• A dovish yet cautious Fed cuts, fueled by solid economic statistics, supports the USD, curtailing gold’s short-term bullish prospects.

• Support lies at $2,773-2,772 with resistance at $2,830. A breakout would determine the course to be chosen for gold amid increasing market uncertainty.

Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats off record high; strength US Dollar, surging yields in Treasury weigh on momentum, as Trump’s timed tariff pause on Mexico and Canada bolsters market confidence, but overall worries for trade policies and a runaway inflation scenario continue to support the safe-haven appeal of gold. Strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts have further strengthened the USD, limiting gold’s immediate upside. However, key support at $2,773-2,772 is expected to cushion any downside, while a break above $2,830 could reignite bullish momentum. Traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming US economic data, which could influence gold’s trajectory.

Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from its record high as a stronger US Dollar and rebounding Treasury yields limit gains. Concerns over Trump’s trade policies and inflation support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Key levels at $2,773-2,772 provide support, while a breakout above $2,830 could signal further upside.

• XAU/USD retreats from its all-time peak as a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields weigh on bullish momentum.

• The temporary suspension of Mexico-Canada tariffs provides a boost to market confidence, but overall trade policy fears and inflation worries keep the safe-haven appeal of gold locked in place.

• Strong US economic data and the Fed’s gentle approach to cuts further support the USD, making gold less appealing in the near term.

• Gold remains supported around $2,773-2,772; any drop below this could extend declines toward $2,755 and $2,725.

• Bulls must overcome this level in order to get back on an uptrend and a successful breakout could propel gold to even more significant targets.

• JOLTS job openings and factory orders reports, the next few days, will shape both the action of the USD and gold

• Despite near-term consolidation, gold is in an uptrend as inflation worries and global economic uncertainty weigh.

The US Dollar’s resurgence, which has been coupled with rebounding Treasury bond yields and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, is leading to a pullback in the gold price from its record high. Although President Trump’s move to temporarily halt tariffs on Mexico and Canada boosted investor confidence, overall concerns regarding trade wars and inflation remain. Strong US economic data, including a rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and inflation indicators, has further strengthened the greenback, making gold less attractive in the short term. However, gold remains well-positioned as a hedge against inflationary pressures, limiting the downside and keeping the overall bullish trend intact.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA

Gold’s near-term price action suggests consolidation, with key support around the $2,773-2,772 region. Any breakdown beneath this point would be followed by fresh declines toward $2,755 and then conceivably to $2,725. On the upside, resistance at $2,830—Monday’s record high—is the final hurdle in the way of further advances. In the case of renewed bullish momentum, an extension of the rally from December’s $2,583 low might see prices rise. Market players are closely watching the upcoming US economic data, such as JOLTS job openings and factory orders, which may give further direction for both the USD and gold’s next move.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase after hitting its all-time high. The key support levels are at $2,773-2,772. A breakdown below this zone could extend losses toward $2,755 and further to the $2,725-$2,720 region. However, the bigger picture trend is still positive, and each dip will only attract buying. On the way up, near-term resistance rests at $2,830 – the recent peak – and if it breaks convincingly above here, the momentum could get fired up again with a view towards new highs. The RSI is overbought, meaning a short-term pullback into the next leg higher is quite possible. Traders will be closely monitoring price action around the important levels for possible trades.

FORECAST

XAU/USD price in gold keeps a positive scenario despite the short-term consolidation and still enjoys a key level resistance area at $2,830 as an important breakthrough. If the spot above this level can be sustained, the new rally towards $2,850 is expected with further continuation towards the psychological level of $2,900. The continued inflation fears, as well as uncertainty about US trade policies, could maintain demand for gold as a hedge. Also, any dovish shift by the Federal Reserve or weaker-than-expected US economic data will help support gold’s upside momentum. The yellow metal remains well-positioned for further gains in the medium term given the broader uptrend from December’s swing low at $2,583.

Although gold has a bullish structure, the upside is capped by downside risks, mainly fueled by a rising US Dollar and increasing Treasury yields. If selling pressure increases, the first layer of defense for gold is $2,773-2,772, which is a crucial support area. A break below this level will expose the commodity to further losses toward $2,755 and then the $2,725-$2,720 area. A better-than-expected US economic performance or a hawkish Federal Reserve might be a weight further on gold, making it less attractive as a safe haven. Moreover, in case the risk sentiment stays positive and the equity markets keep doing well, investors may offload their gold positions for more yield-generating assets, sending the prices of the yellow metal south in the near term.