Gold prices remain trading on a positive note near the $3,370 level due to safe-haven buying in the wake of increasing global trade tensions and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Investor anxiety regarding US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy, along with a modest pullback in the US Dollar, has reaffirmed the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold. Yet, uncertainty regarding a lack of clear economic data and fear of a potential Fed pause in reducing rates has left traders cautious, with gold remaining in a temporary range. A breakout over $3,366 would indicate additional gains, while support is seen around $3,322.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• Look for a break above the $3,365–$3,366 resistance zone to affirm a bullish breakout to $3,400 and beyond.
• Prime support is around $3,325–$3,322, with further downside dangers in case the price falls below $3,283.
• Clashing signals on the Fed’s rate-cutting horizon—particularly during July–September—will continue to be a pivotal driver of USD and gold price action.
• Increased trade tension, particularly in the wake of Trump’s threatened tariffs on large economies, can persist in fuel and sustained safe-haven demand for gold.
The prices of gold are staying firm at the $3,370 level, underpinned by both safe-haven demand and a softening US Dollar amidst general trade uncertainty and mixed Federal Reserve rate-cut messages. Investors closely watch President Trump’s intensifying tariff threats, which are raising market anxiety and increasing the allure of gold. Meanwhile, the Fed’s conservative approach—between inflation fears and economic concerns—remains a nervous reckoning for traders, which caps strong bullish positioning. With little in the way of significant US data releases to start the week, market players are waiting for the breakout from the prevailing trading range to validate the next direction.
Gold fluctuates at $3,370 as uncertainty regarding trade tensions and Fed rate cuts fuels safe-haven demand. A break above $3,366 might spur new gains, while support lies at $3,322.
• Gold price is placed with a bullish bias near the level of $3,370 amidst persistent trade tensions.
• Safe-haven demand is fostered by uncertainty regarding Trump’s planned tariffs on large economies.
• The US Dollar continues to weaken due to conflicting Fed rate-cut expectations.
• Markets think the Fed might push back rate cuts until September even after dovish rhetoric.
• Technical resistance is around $3,365–$3,366; a breakout might see $3,400 and $3,434.
• Support lies at $3,325 and $3,283 with further losses possible below $3,247.
• Absence of significant US economic data leaves eyes on global PMIs and trade news.
Gold prices remain supported by global economic and political uncertainty, led by U.S. trade policy. Market participants are still wary as President Donald Trump’s suggested tariffs on several major economies—including a possible 15% to 20% tax on the European Union—spook investors about inflation and supply chain interruptions. These events have further strengthened gold’s safe-haven status as investors increasingly turn to the precious metal in a backdrop of increasing geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty.
XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART
SOURCE: TradingView
Aside from this, the US Dollar began the week on a weak note, under pressure as there were conflicting views from Federal Reserve officials on when to cut interest rates. While there are some Fed members favoring a reduction in rates as soon as July, others are urging that the cut be done by September, confusing the market. With inflation fears growing because of increased import costs, the Fed’s next step is far from clear, again spurring investor demand for gold as insurance against possible policy errors and economic turmoil.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold is at the higher end of a well-established short-term range, with resistance at the $3,365–$3,366 area. A decisive and persistent breakout higher here can serve as a catalyst for bulls’ momentum, taking prices up towards the psychological level of $3,400 and subsequent major resistance around $3,434–$3,435. At the lower end, near-term support lies at $3,325–$3,322, with a further decline below $3,283 potentially risk-justifying a more significant correction to the $3,248–$3,247 area, tilting near-term sentiment towards bears.
FORECAST
If gold is able to push past the $3,366 resistance level with significant buying volume, it would represent the beginning of a new bullish leg. The immediate next target would be the psychological $3,400 level, then the $3,434–$3,435 resistance area. This move would most likely be driven by continued weakness in the USD, dovish Fed rhetoric, or additional geopolitical risks, specifically those involving international trade policies. Strong and steady gains might draw in technical buying and propel gold towards new multi-week highs.
Conversely, a failure to break above the current resistance may lead to a pullback towards the $3,325–$3,322 support area. A break below this level could see more downside towards $3,283, and in the event of intensified selling pressures, prices could fall towards the June low of around $3,247. A stronger US Dollar, hawkish Fed news, or the relaxation of global tensions may cap safe-haven demand and spell a bearish change in gold’s near-term outlook.
