Gold prices continue to hold steady over the $3,300 level as safe-haven demand remains in place despite prevailing tensions in the geopolitical scene, US fiscal issues, and risk-averse sentiment prior to the release of the FOMC Minutes. Even with a modest recovery in the US Dollar and relaxed trade tensions after President Trump’s postponement of EU tariffs, investor unease remains in driving demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Market players now closely monitor the Fed’s policy stance and forthcoming US economic releases such as Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index for further guidance. Technically, gold has potential for both near-term pullbacks and continuation higher, with support around $3,245 and resistance near $3,345.
KEY LOOKOUTS
• Market players look to the FOMC Minutes for insight into the Federal Reserve’s position regarding forthcoming interest rate reductions, which would directly impact gold prices and USD strength.
• Future important data, such as the Preliminary Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index, will offer more insight into inflation dynamics and the health of the economy, and could influence Fed policy expectations.
• Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East conflicts, and increasing worries regarding the fiscal deficit of the US support continued safe-haven demand for gold.
• Look for important support at $3,245 and resistance at around $3,345. A breakout above resistance could initiate a rally to $3,400 and higher, while a fall below support might induce a bearish excursion.
Gold traders are eagerly observing some important events that may determine the metal’s short-term trend. The FOMC Minutes release continues to be a top priority, with the markets wanting confirmation of the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve as expectations for two cuts in 2025 build. Furthermore, the forthcoming US economic data, with the Preliminary Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index taking center stage, will provide key insights into inflation and growth that will dictate both Fed policy and investor moods. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s moves in Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East, as well as fears over the US fiscal deficit, continue to support gold’s status as an asset class of last resort. On a technical basis, levels to monitor are support around $3,245 and resistance at $3,345, with a break in either direction set to initiate the next major move.
Gold continues to be underpinned above $3,300 as investors look to the FOMC Minutes for transparency on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Safe-haven demand is being fueled by geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns, with further volatility potentially being added by forthcoming GDP and inflation releases.
• Gold remains firm above $3,300 as investors look for cover amidst geopolitical tensions and US fiscal worries.
• FOMC Minutes are closely watched for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
• Market mood is still guarded in spite of President Trump’s postponement of envisaged EU tariffs.
• Imminent US economic releases, such as Q1 GDP and PCE Price Index, may drive gold’s direction.
• Gold finds support from safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties and inflation.
• US Dollar finds it hard to make headway, constrained by budgetary concerns and rate-cutting expectations.
• Technical perspective indicates consolidation with scope for both continuation higher and short-term pullbacks.
Gold prices remain stable above the $3,300 level, supported by renewed investor hesitancy in the face of geopolitical tensions and US fiscal concerns. Although some easing of trade tensions with President Trump’s postponement of planned EU tariffs, sentiment in the market remains precarious. Concerns regarding the general economic outlook, combined with renewed global conflict and mounting budget deficit anxieties, have maintained demand for the safe-haven metal at high levels.
XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART
CHART SOURCE: TradingView
Investors are now waiting for the FOMC Minutes release to gauge the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. With interest rate cuts anticipated later in the year, gold is expected to continue in the limelight as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Upcoming US economic releases such as Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index will also be closely monitored for the direction of inflationary trends and growth momentum that may dictate future policy actions.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold is displaying signs of consolidation with an upward bias, as it maintains above important psychological support around $3,300. Though momentum indicators on the daily chart indicate loss of bullish momentum, they have failed to signify a bearish change, which could signal the emergence of fresh buying interest. Near-term resistance lies in the vicinity of the $3,340–$3,345 levels, which also corresponds to a recent trend-line breakdown. A continued advance above this level may spur fresh upside momentum, whereas inability to stay above $3,300 can leave the metal vulnerable to additional declines towards the $3,250–$3,245 resistance zone.
FORECAST
If gold is able to hold above the $3,300 level and clears the immediate overhead around $3,345, then it may unlock more gains. Rising safe-haven demand, dovish FOMC Minutes cues, or softer-than-anticipated US economic data can impart bullish momentum. Under this scenario, gold can rise to the $3,365 level and potentially extend towards the $3,400 level, provided market sentiment shifts risk-averse or the US Dollar continues to weaken.
Alternatively, if gold is unable to stay above $3,300, it can attract more selling pressure. A more robust US currency, Fed hawkish remarks, or improved-than-anticipated economic indicators might deter the metal’s demand. Under these circumstances, prices might fall back to the $3,250–$3,245 area, which is a crucial support level. A firm breach below this region could trigger a more significant corrective period, possibly leaving gold vulnerable to additional sell-offs on the near-term horizon.
