Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade in a range below the $2,750 level, as a mix of factors weighs on the yellow metal, including rebounding US bond yields, revived USD demand, and inflationary concerns triggered by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff threats. While these factors weigh on the yellow metal, worries about economic fallout and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts provide support. Traders are careful ahead of the FOMC meeting and US economic data, with immediate resistance near $2,755-2,757 and key support around $2,725-2,750. A breakout above $2,800 could indicate a fresh bullish trend, while further declines may target key Fibonacci levels below $2,705.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• Gold faces strong resistance near $2,757, with a potential breakout above $2,800 needed to confirm a bullish continuation. Watch for momentum around these levels.

• Supportive levels range from $2,725 to $2,705. If this support breaks, a bigger decline will occur towards the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

• Gold’s prices are vulnerable in the short term because of the possible effects on US bond yields and USD as a result of inflation worries raised by the tariff threats made by Trump on the US.

• A Federal Reserve decision will dictate market behavior and guide further USD strength moves and potentially a better idea for the future movement of gold.

Gold prices are hovering in a tight range below $2,750 as mixed cues rule the market sentiment. The revival of US bond yields, mainly due to inflationary concerns over President Trump’s tariff threats, continues to support the US Dollar while weighing on the precious metal. However, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over potential economic fallout from protectionist policies give gold prices a floor. Traders are observing key resistance at $2,755-$2,757 and a support at $2,725-$2,705 levels while the upcoming FOMC meeting and US economic data are to be considered the determinants for the next move. A breakout above $2,800 could signal renewed bullish momentum while the break below the key support would open doors for further decline.

Gold prices still trade below $2,750 as US bond yields rise on inflationary fears from the tariffs threats. Gold traders are eyeing the FOMC for clearer direction.

• Gold is consolidating at the lows around $2,750 and can’t capitalize on the recent bounce from multi-day lows.

• US bond yields pick up on the inflationary concerns from President Trump’s trade tariffs, which pushes the USD and weighs on gold.

• Bottom support in between $2,725-$2,705, while targets are made on the downside 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels.

• Markets see immediate resistance near $2,755-$2,757 with a breach above $2,800 likely to initiate positive momentum.

• Market expectations of two consecutive 25 bps Fed rate cuts this year would restrict US bond yields and maintain gold prices.

• All eyes on the US Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Confidence Index for the upcoming short-term moves of gold.

• This monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would go a long way in shaping the dynamics in the USD and further directional move for gold.

Prices in gold (XAU/USD) continue to consolidate below $2,750. There are clearly mixed sentiments at play that prevent prices from rallying higher. Reviving the US bond yields through threats from President Trump’s trade tariffs on inflation has resurged the USD and pushed back on gold. However, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and apprehensions over the economic implications of protectionist policies are supporting the yellow metal. The immediate resistance levels are seen around $2,755-$2,757, and a breakout above $2,800 would be required to confirm a fresh bullish trend. On the downside, key support levels are pegged at $2,725-$2,705, which, if breached, could signal a deeper correction toward critical Fibonacci retracement levels.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA

Traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled to provide further clarity on US monetary policy and implications for the USD. US economic data, such as Durable Goods Orders and the Consumer Confidence Index, could offer short-term direction for gold. The metal continues to hold up well against mixed market signals above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the December-January rally. With key data and events on the horizon, the next move in the gold market will be heavily influenced by how these impacts the bond yields, the US Dollar, and market sentiment.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally from above. The break above the $2,720-$2,725 resistance zone has now flipped this zone into a key support level, but for now, it cushions price to further decline. Oscillators on the daily charts have remained in positive territory, bolstering the upside move of the stock. Resistance comes at the immediately higher price levels of $2,755-$2,757, then the swing high at $2,772-$2,773 and the all-time peak near $2,790. A break above $2,800 would be sustained and confirm the continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, a break below $2,725 may lead to a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,705 and potentially deeper corrections.

FORECAST

Gold prices will continue to head higher if resistance levels are broken. A break above the $2,755-$2,757 area might push prices up toward the $2,772-$2,773 area. But a drive past that point may be what gets to the all-time high around $2,790. If buyers continue their momentum, breaking the psychologically sensitive $2,800 mark may help solidify a continued continuation of the trend upward due to concerns of inflation in the markets and dovish policies by the Federal Reserve. Positive momentum indicators, along with maintaining above retracement levels at major support points, add fuel to this view.

Failure at near $2,725-$2,705 might deepen corrections into gold, breaking through those might slide towards a further 38.2% retracement level, close to the point of $2,705 with selling, even further to potentially breach the zone toward the 50% retracement point about $2,684. A stronger US Dollar and rising US bond yields, driven by hawkish Fed expectations or improved economic data, could exacerbate these declines. The overall bearish outlook would solidify if prices drop below $2,680, indicating a potential reversal of the broader uptrend.