NZD/USD is still gaining steam past 0.5600 with a current level of 0.5630 in the morning Asian session amid a weaker USD, as after Trump delayed imposition of tariffs against Mexico and Canada. However, the market keeps a wary eye on the imposing of 10% tariffs by the US against Chinese imports coming into effect tomorrow at 05:00 GMT. The respite in the delay of tariffs for North American partners will not last long, and the US-China trade war concerns may increase safe-haven demand for the Greenback, capping NZD/USD gains. Trade developments are closely watched, as any positive news may support the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar.

KEY LOOKOUTS

• The pair trades near 0.5630 as the US Dollar weakens following Trump’s tariff postponement for Mexico and Canada, boosting risk sentiment.

• The 10% US tariff on Chinese imports, scheduled to come into effect at 05:00 GMT, will likely create market volatility and push safe-haven demand.

• Any indication of increased trade tensions will strengthen the Greenback, acting as a headwind for NZD/USD and capping its upward movement.

• Investors are keeping a close eye on trade news, as favorable developments in US-China relations could support the China-linked New Zealand Dollar in the next sessions.

NZD/USD is moving upwards again and is currently trading near 0.5630, but US Dollar remains soft due to President Trump’s move to delay the tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The focus is still on the upcoming 10% tariffs on Chinese imports scheduled to start at 05:00 GMT today, which can increase volatility and risk aversion. Even if the Greenback is strengthened from trade tensions, favorable changes in US-China relations should sustain the China-linked New Zealand Dollar. Investors are holding their breaths for further updates on trade policy, as this fluid state will dictate their next move on NZD/USD.

The pair bounces off around 0.5630 as the US Dollar weakens following Trump postponing tariffs on Mexico and Canada. However, market volatility can be driven if 10% tariffs on Chinese imports are placed, and a positive development for US-China trade relations may back the New Zealand Dollar.

• Rebounds at around 0.5630 after the US Dollar weakens due to postponing tariffs by Trump on Mexico and Canada.

• A 10% tariff on Chinese imports is to be implemented at 05:00 GMT and could boost market volatility.

• Trade tensions could fuel demand for the safe-haven Greenback that could restrict further upside for NZD/USD.

• Progress in US-China trade developments is closely eyed by investors as a potential guide for currency pair direction.

• As a China-proxy currency, the NZD is likely to benefit if positive trade developments are seen between the US and China.

• Trump’s shifting tariff policies create uncertainty, keeping traders cautious about potential market reactions.

• Traders watch the 0.5600 support and 0.5630 resistance, as a breakout in either direction could signal the next move.

NZD/USD has regained momentum, climbing near 0.5630 as the US Dollar weakens following Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This temporary relief has boosted risk sentiment, supporting the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar. Yet market attention continues to be fixated on the imposition of 10% tariffs on Chinese imports at 05:00 GMT. This action would likely prompt more volatility since investors would seek to gauge its ramifications on the state of international trade and overall global economic security. Any sense that the trade tension is gaining the upper hand might send demand to the safe-haven US Dollar, further negatively impacting NZD/USD.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA

Traders are closely monitoring the trade developments because any positive movement between the US and China may provide support to the NZD. With a significant trade relationship with New Zealand, a favorable resolution will definitely boost the Kiwi. Geopolitical uncertainty and shifting US trade policies are still keeping the markets on the edge. The 0.5600 support and the 0.5630 resistance level are expected to play significant roles in establishing which way the pair is likely to go next. A breach either way can confirm a shift in trend; therefore, changes in trade news and worldwide risk appetite are fundamental observations.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZD/USD is retesting the 0.5630 resistance from a rebound at the 0.5600 support. A sustained break above this resistance may lead to further gains toward the 0.5670–0.5700 zone, where the 50-day moving average may be a barrier on the upside. On the downside, if selling pressure resumes, immediate support is at 0.5600, followed by the key psychological level of 0.5550. The RSI is hovering near neutral territory, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before the next directional move. Traders should look for price action at these levels as any breakout or rejection may lead to the next trend in NZD/USD.

FORECAST

NZD/USD has started to recover and is trading near 0.5630, and if risk sentiment continues to be positive, then the pair could move higher. A breakout above the immediate resistance at 0.5630 could push the pair toward the 0.5670–0.5700 region, where additional resistance is expected. If the market reciprocates positively to trade developments, especially if the US and China display positive signs of negotiations, New Zealand Dollar may gain even more. A softer US Dollar, with the help of reduced tariff escalations or weaker economic reports, will also facilitate an upward move in NZD/USD. It is likely that there may be a bullish strength up the key levels if some buyers can hold pressure above levels.

On the other hand, downside risks for NZD/USD continue to build with increasing trade tensions, especially as 10% US tariffs on imported goods from China are set to kick in. A stronger US Dollar supports from increased safe-haven demand as geo-political tensions continue to mount would push the pair lower. The failure to stay above 0.5600 supports selling pressures, with the next stop at 0.5550. A breakdown below this level would send the pair towards 0.5500, which could open the way to a bearish continuation. Further weakness in New Zealand’s economy or a global risk-off theme could weigh on the Kiwi and extend losses.