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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Remains Steady Despite Budget Release and Global Economic Unrest

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  • March 25, 2025
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The Australian Dollar stabilised after Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ release of the 2025/26 budget, which outlined anticipated deficits of A$27.6 billion in 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion in 2025-26, in addition to tax cuts to spur economic stimulus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s restraint regarding interest rates and anticipation of Chinese stimulus both lent further support to the AUD. Nonetheless, cross-border uncertainties, such as President Trump’s US trade policies and inconsistent US economic statistics, remain possible threats. In the meantime, technical markers indicate the AUD/USD exchange rate is under stress, trending below significant levels of resistance within continuing market turmoil. KEY LOOKOUTS • The tax cuts and economic projections of the Australian government can shape investor optimism and market stability. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to rate cutting and its reaction to inflation and international economic trends will be pivotal for the movement of the AUD. • Any possible tariff announcements by President Trump and how these will affect global trade, specifically Australia’s trading relationship with China and the US, may cause volatility. •The currency pair is still below major resistance at 0.6300, with support at 0.6220; a break above or below these levels may indicate the direction of the next market move. The Australian Dollar’s stability after the 2025/26 budget announcement is indicative of cautious optimism, but major factors may determine its path in the weeks ahead. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate stance continues to be a major focus, as investors weigh the chances of further policy changes. At the same time, worldwide trade tensions, especially possible US tariff announcements, may also weigh on market sentiment and the economic prospects of Australia. Of course, technical levels of resistance around 0.6300 and support at 0.6220 will also be observed closely, as a break through in either direction may indicate the next significant move for the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar is stable following the budget announcement for 2025/26, with investors waiting for tax reductions and economic projections. RBA’s interest rate policy and possible US tariff implications may influence market sentiment. Technical resistance of 0.6300 and support of 0.6220 will be points of interest for AUD/USD action. • The budget for 2025/26 involves tax reductions and economic projections, with a budget deficit of A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. • The Aussie remains firm, helped by RBA holding rates and possible Chinese stimulus. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautiousness towards rate cuts continues to be a leading driver of the AUD. • Looming uncertainty regarding possible tariff announcements from President Trump may generate volatility across markets worldwide. • US Services PMI jumped to 54.3, bolstering the US Dollar, while Manufacturing PMI was lower than forecasted. • Resistance at 0.6300 and support at 0.6220 will be key to deciding the pair’s next direction. • Beijing’s proposals to enhance consumption and wages would indirectly assist the Australian economy because of robust trade links. The Australian Dollar held firm after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the 2025/26 budget that provided significant economic predictions, such as tax relief intended to ease money woes for households. The budget estimates a 2024-25 deficit of A$27.6 billion and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26, as the government aims to balance economic growth with fiscal prudence. Moreover, the GDP of Australia is predicted to expand by 2.25% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, indicating modest economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious in its interest rate moves, keeping inflation under control while fostering economic stability. AUS/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Australian Dollar maintained its calmness after Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget that made important economic projections, such as the reduction of tax that would help alleviate financial burdens on households. The budget forecasts a deficit of A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26, which shows that the government is striking a balance between economic growth and fiscal prudence. Moreover, Australia’s GDP is projected to increase by 2.25% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, indicating moderate economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious in its interest rate policy, keeping inflation under control while maintaining economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6290, with technical indicators indicating a cautious market mood. The currency pair continues to be in a bearish trend and trades in a falling channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a level slightly below 50, which means the currency has weak momentum. The important support remains at 0.6220 and breaking below this may drag the pair towards its seven-week low of 0.6187. Resistance on the upside comes at 0.6308 (nine-day Exponential Moving Average) and 0.6310 (50-day EMA). A breakout above these levels may signal short-term bullish momentum, while continued rejection at resistance may reinforce the prevailing downtrend. FORECAST The outlook for the Australian Dollar is mixed and dependent on both local and international considerations. To the upside, solid economic fundamentals from Australia, such as better Manufacturing and Services PMI reports, can underpin the AUD. Also, hopes of further stimulus from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, could increase demand for Australian exports, supporting the currency. If the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be cautious on interest rates without hinting at aggressive cuts, investor sentiment in the AUD might stay firm. A move above key technical resistance levels at 0.6310 could pave the way for more gains in the near term. But downside risks remain as uncertainty regarding US trade policies hangs in the air. Possible tariff announcements by President Trump have the potential to upset global trade and hurt risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. The US Dollar is also supported by robust Services PMI data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could cap the AUD’s upside. If the AUD/USD currency pair is unable to sustain support at 0.6220, then further losses towards 0.6187 may be anticipated, supporting a bearish trend in the short term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Slumps Close to 0.6300 in Face of Growing Risk Aversion and US Tariff Fears

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  • March 21, 2025
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The AUD/USD has fallen towards the 0.6300 level as risk aversion increases following increased concerns regarding US tariff policy, increasing the demand for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. The Australian Dollar is still on the back foot due to soft domestic jobs data, which is making traders revalue the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy perspective. As US bond yields fall as investors flock to Treasuries for safety, Fed Chair Jerome Powell conceded the difficulty in assessing the wider inflationary effects of tariffs even as he minimized their near-term impact. Cautious market sentiment prevails as economic uncertainties and changing central bank expectations remain at the helm of currency fluctuations. KEY LOOKOUTS • Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar could continue to weigh on AUD/USD amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. • Market players closely monitor RBA’s policy, with lower jobs data fuelling speculation over possible rate reductions in the months ahead. • Future US releases of data, particularly inflation and employment, will be pivotal to influencing Fed policy expectations and USD direction. • Any intensification of US tariff news or overall risk sentiment would further fuel volatility and influence AUD/USD direction. The AUD/USD is still closely watched as several factors have been guiding its path. Increasing US Dollar demand amid surging risks aversion and US tariff policy concerns continues to press the key Australia Dollar. Meanwhile, weak Australian labor market statistics have prompted traders to re-evaluate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy tone, raising speculation of future rate cuts. Market players are also eyeing future US economic data, which might further affect Federal Reserve expectations and currency fluctuations. Changes in global sentiment or intensification of tensions relating to trade might contribute to volatility in the pair. AUD/USD remains around 0.6300 due to safe-haven demand pushing the US Dollar higher in light of increasing US tariff tensions. Downbeat Australian jobs data adds to the pressure, stoking speculation regarding future RBA rate cuts. Markets now look for major US economic indicators for guidance. • AUD/USD is trading around 0.6300, pressured by increasing risk aversion and increased US Dollar demand. • Safe-haven flows support USD, fueled by US tariff policy concerns and worldwide economic uncertainty. • US bond yields fall as investors turn to Treasuries for safety amid market and geopolitical uncertainty. • Fed Chair Powell minimizes inflation effect of tariffs, but admits difficulty in measuring broader economic impacts. • US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K, narrowly missing forecasts and contributing to risk-averse market sentiment. • Australian Dollar weakens after disappointing jobs data raise the alarm over the health of the labor market. • RBA policy outlook questioned, with markets speculating over future rate cuts despite the central bank’s conservatism. The Australian Dollar is facing pressure as global market sentiment shifts towards caution with increasing worries over US trade policies. Investors are now betting on the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency as anxiety rises about future economic shocks resulting from new tariffs from the US. This greater risk-aversion is fuelling currency market direction, and market participants watch closely for events in geopolitics and policy communications by large economies. Financial markets are more in defensive mood today, propelling demand towards defensive assets and impacting currency prices internationally. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To this conservative mood comes the additional news of weaker-than-forecast employment figures from Australia. The unemployment rate having held steady, the fall in overall employment created renewed doubts about the vigor of the nation’s labor market. Consequently, market players are reviewing again the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path and more speculation about additional scope for cutting interest rates. Yet, the central bank has been cautious in tone, hinting at a cautious and data-driven policy in the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is still under sustained bearish pressure, trading around the important psychological support level of 0.6300. The pair still trades below important moving averages, showing a consistent downtrend. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicate a bearish bias, but not yet oversold, with scope for further decline. Any decisive break below 0.6300 could take the pair deeper into support levels, while any recovery attempt could be resisted around the 0.6350–0.6380 area. Traders are likely to observe these levels closely for possible breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST If sentiment in the market picks up and risk appetite comes back, AUD/USD may recover modestly. A recovery in global equities or a relief on US tariff concerns might dampen the safe-haven bid for the US Dollar, providing some relief to the Australian Dollar. Any surprise upside in Australian economic data or a more dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could also induce a short-term rebound. In this case, the duo might try to retest resistance levels of 0.6350 and possibly 0.6380 if bullish sentiment gathers pace. On the bearish side, ongoing risk aversion and lingering worries about global trade tensions might keep AUD/USD under selling pressure. A strong US Dollar, supported by safe-haven flows and robust US economic data, might push the pair below the pivotal 0.6300 level. If this support is convincingly violated, subsequent falls toward 0.6250 or even 0.6200 cannot be discounted. Further, any subsequent indications of weakness in the labor market of Australia or dovish rhetoric from the RBA would bolster the bearish outlook for the Australian Dollar in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falters as US Dollar Strength and Rising Global Tensions Intensify

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  • March 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to struggle as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on the back of rising geopolitical tensions and poor US economic data. Heightened fears of Middle East conflicts, possible trade disruptions, and aggressive US tariff policies by President Donald Trump have shaken global markets, lifting safe-haven demand for the USD. While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains optimistic about cuts in interest rates in the future, providing some boost to the AUD, stimulus measures by China provide some cushioning for the Aussie Dollar. Although trade anxieties on the horizon and softer US retail data remain dampeners for investor moods. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing Middle East tensions and assertive US policy measures continue to drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reluctance to cut interest rates could give the AUD temporary support, depending on inflation patterns and world economic conditions. • Optimism from China’s consumption-stimulating measures could be a boon to the AUD, considering Australia’s robust trade relations with China. • The AUD/USD currency pair can test the crucial resistance level of 0.6408. A break can reach 0.6480, and strong support is found at 0.6330 and 0.6311. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is under a challenging trading scenario with increasing geopolitical tensions and the US Dollar (USD) strengthening, bolstered by safe-haven demand and threats of tariffs from the Trump administration. Though soft US economic data, including disappointing retail sales and weakening consumer sentiment, put a cloud of uncertainty over the outlook for the USD, the AUD is under pressure from worries of global trade dislocation and Australia’s exposure to commodity markets. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s prudent stance on cutting interest rates and China’s recent stimulus package targeting consumption provide some glimmer of support for the Aussie. Technical levels indicate a possible bullish shift in the AUD/USD, but future upside will rely on global risk appetite and core economic events ahead. The Australian Dollar is still pressured as the US Dollar consolidates its gains on renewed geopolitical tension and uncertainty about trade. Yet, prudent RBA policy and China’s economic stimulus offer support. Market attention now turns to significant technical levels and prospective economic indicators. • The Australian Dollar weakens as geopolitical tensions drive demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. • RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter gives a nod towards cautiousness with future rate cuts. • Dismal US Retail Sales and weaker consumer sentiment place pressure on the USD outlook. • US President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs and no exemption for steel and aluminum affect Australia’s trade outlook. • China’s specific action plan to stimulate consumption provides regional market assistance, supporting the Aussie Dollar. • AUD/USD is traded around 0.6380, with possibilities to test the resistance at 0.6408 and trend towards 0.6480. • The investors are careful as the ongoing global economic and political events are still driving currencies. The Australian Dollar is under pressure as geopolitical tensions rise, especially in the Middle East, where the US has reasserted its military presence. The increased global uncertainty has fueled demand for the US Dollar, which is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of crisis. Concurrently, economic issues in the US, including soft retail sales and a precipitous decline in consumer sentiment, have created an additional layer of sophistication in overall market sentiment. Though these contribute to market volatility, the general global backdrop still plays a role in currency movements, including the AUD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a conservative view regarding future interest rate reductions, hinting at a more prudent strategy than what the markets had predicted. This occurs as Australia’s trade environment is also under threat from the US administration’s refusal to remove tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum exports. But recent Chinese efforts to trigger its economy—like increasing household consumption and stabilizing markets—provide a glimmer of hope for Australia’s economy, considering China’s vital position as an important trading partner. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair still has a bullish tilt as it still moves in an upward channel in the daily chart. The currency pair is presently trading close to 0.6380, and the impetus is buoyed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) being sustained above the 50 level, which shows strength on the buy side. In case the pair continues to go higher, it could try and test the new high close to 0.6408. However, levels of support close to 0.6330 and 0.6311 are pivotal; a break below these might spell a change in trend and usher in more downward pressure. FORECAST If sentiment in the market is bullish and geopolitical tensions between nations become less, the Australian Dollar may recover strength, provided that China’s economic stimulus initiatives begin to yield more positive results. Increased stability globally, along with a prudent but consistent monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia, could be a basis for AUD recovery. Moreover, if future US economic data continues to underperform, it may devalue the US Dollar and lend support to a bullish trend in the AUD/USD currency pair. Strong commodity demand and positive risk appetite can further drive the Aussie higher in the short term. On the bearish side, the Australian Dollar is exposed to sustained geopolitical tensions and escalating global uncertainties, especially with regards to US trade policies and military aggressions. Continued resilience of the US Dollar, fueled by safe-haven flows and possible policy changes by the Federal Reserve, may put further pressure on the AUD. Additionally, if the recovery in China slows down or Australia continues to encounter more trade-related issues, the AUD might not be able to gain strength, making a decline in the AUD/USD pair more likely. 

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falls in Face of Trade Tensions and China Deflation Fears Amid Consumer Confidence Bounce

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Australian Dollar continues to fall against the US Dollar, burdened by rising global trade tensions and worsening deflationary fears in China—Australia’s biggest trading partner. Even with a big bounce in Westpac Consumer Confidence to a three-year high, fueled by recent interest rate reductions and softening living expenses, the AUD can’t find its footing. Stagnated US-China trade talks, counter-tariffs, and waning Chinese demand have weighed on sentiment, as weaker US employment data and fears of recession further clouded the wider picture. With investors expecting crucial inflation reads and other direction from central banks, the AUD/USD continues to be battered, trading around multi-week lows. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch intently for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after robust numbers trimmed expectations of further rate easing. • Continuing deadlock in US-China trade negotiations and fresh retaliatory tariffs continue to influence Australian market sentiment and global risk appetite. • Accelerating deflationary pressure in China is a significant threat to Australia’s export-oriented economy, particularly in the context of slowing consumer demand after Spring Festival. • Market participants are waiting for US inflation figures, which would potentially affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and propel short-term AUD/USD movements. The Australian Dollar continues to come under pressure as rising global trade tensions and China’s worsening deflation feed fears about Australia’s economic prospects. Amid a significant rise in consumer sentiment—reflected in Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index hitting a three-year high—the external headwinds continue to dominate local optimism. The US-China trade impasse extended over time, joined by retaliatory tariffs and waning demand in China, has quashed investor sentiment and risk appetite. At the same time, technical indicators point to bearish momentum for AUD/USD, with investors looking for significant US inflation data and further information about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy direction. The Australian Dollar remains under pressure even after consumer confidence rose, as global trade tensions and deflation concerns in China act as a dampener for sentiment. US-China negotiations’ stalemate and declining risk appetite keep the AUD/USD pair around multi-week lows. • Australian Dollar continues to be under pressure as a result of escalating global trade tensions and China’s increasing deflation worries. • Westpac Consumer Confidence jumped 4% in March, a three-year high, driven by interest rate reductions and softening living expenses. • US-China trade talks continue to be at an impasse, with retaliatory tariffs further weighing on market sentiment and affecting Australia’s export-oriented economy. • Deflation in China indicates poor domestic demand, which threatens Australian exports and general economic prospects. • Uncertainty around the US economy continues, with poor jobs numbers and recession worries driving global currency flows. • RBA remains cautious in its policy, and recent economic news has lowered the expectation of further rate cuts. • Market players wait for the next US inflation figures, which may influence future Federal Reserve policies and affect the AUD/USD exchange rate. The Australian Dollar is strained as global trade tensions escalate and economic uncertainty rises, driven particularly by increasing deflation fears in China—Australia’s biggest trading partner. While consumer sentiment improved significantly, with Westpac Consumer Confidence reaching a three-year high, overall market sentiment remains cautious. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent rate cut and alleviation of cost-of-living pressures have improved domestic optimism, but external threats continue to loom over local economic gains. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Impeded US-China trade talks and retaliatory tariffs are driving fears of a weakening global demand, which directly affects Australia’s trade-dependent economy. In the background, political events and soft US job data are influencing expectations for future economic policy. As investors continue to keep an eye on future inflation data and central bank cues, the Australian Dollar’s performance will tend to be guided by these changing global dynamics. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar is exhibiting signs of ongoing weakness versus the US Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair trading around significant support levels. The pair has fallen below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which signals bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 level, indicating mounting selling pressure. If the downtrend continues, the pair would test lower support levels, while recovery would demand a persistent break above the near-term resistance zones to turn sentiment again in the bullish direction. FORECAST In the event that global sentiment is improving and US-China trade tensions abate, the Australian Dollar would recover, particularly if China’s economic data begin to stabilize. A flip in commodity demand to the positive or an unexpected pick-up in China’s inflation rates can drive Australia’s export economy, potentially pushing the AUD higher. Furthermore, if the Reserve Bank of Australia continues its dovish but accommodative policy without additional rate cuts, this should reinforce investor confidence and support a modest recovery in the currency. But the risks on the downside are also considerable. Ongoing trade uncertainty, ongoing deflationary pressures in China, or additional escalation in global tariff tensions would bear down on the Australian Dollar. If future US inflation numbers bolster the argument for the Federal Reserve to keep or postpone rate cuts, the US Dollar could gain further traction, putting further pressure on the AUD. In addition, any fresh weakness in Australian economic data or a turn towards more dovish RBA commentary may speed the currency’s decline in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

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  • March 7, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens as traders exercise caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with market sentiment remaining subdued. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and a rising trade surplus, AUD/USD struggles due to ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over slowing global economic momentum. While the US Dollar (USD) is stable, backed by a decline in jobless claims, but mixed employment statistics and Federal Reserve policy ambiguity keep the market nervous. Technicals show AUD/USD testing critical support levels, with a risk of downside if the pair goes below the 50-day EMA. Investors now wait for the NFP data to decide the direction of the market. KEY LOOKOUTS • February’s NFP figure, due at 160K, is something traders look forward to, as it may impact USD strength and continue to weigh on AUD/USD. • An improving trade surplus and shrinking imports influence sentiment in the markets, with Chinese economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty acting as a burden on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s position on growth and inflation is still of great importance, with possible policy change affecting AUD direction. • AUD/USD tests the 50-day EMA at 0.6309; a break below it may trigger more falls, with major support at 0.6187. The Australian Dollar continues to weaken as investors go cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is anticipated to report a rebound in job creation to 160K. While Australia’s better-than-anticipated GDP growth and growing trade surplus are not enough to overcome global trade risks and tensions with China, AUD/USD lags, with geopolitical tensions in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook remains under the spotlight, with possible changes affecting investor sentiment. Technical indicators indicate AUD/USD testing crucial support on the 50-day EMA at 0.6309, while breaking below that level could initiate further losses towards 0.6187. The Australian Dollar loses strength with investors cautious in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, influencing market sentiment. Ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions push AUD/USD despite robust Australian GDP growth. Technical support at 0.6309 continues to be important, and a breakdown beneath hints at further potential for losses. • The Australian Dollar loses ground as investors hold back in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is forecasted to record job growth at 160K. • US Dollar remains strong underpinned by diminished jobless claims, though mixed employment information contributes to market uncertainty. • An increase in China’s trade surplus and weakening imports affects global trade flows, which has an impact on AUD/USD movement. • US/China tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty, put pressure on the Australian Dollar. • Investors monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attitude toward inflation and economic growth for signs of policy changes. • AUD/USD probes important support at 0.6309 (50-day EMA), with additional downside potential if this level is broken. • The NFP release will be a strong driver for USD strength or weakness, determining the next direction for AUD/USD. The Australian Dollar continues to be under selling pressure as the market players remain cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, an important gauge of the strength of the US labor market. The market players are keeping a close eye on international trade trends, especially China’s increasing trade surplus and falling imports, which have implications for Australia’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions are still influencing market sentiment, with doubt about US trade policy and potential Chinese reaction piling onto economic worries. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stuck with its forecast for economic growth to slow down, and although Australian GDP revealed stronger-than-anticipated growth in Q4 2024, general economic uncertainties are leaving investors cautious. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, sentiment remains mixed as economic data paint a contradictory picture of growth and stability. While claims for unemployment decreased, other measures of employment, including the ADP Employment Change, fell considerably short of projections, casting doubts on the labor market’s strength. Moreover, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy change are increasing as analysts argue about whether the Fed will focus more on curbing economic momentum rather than inflation issues. The next NFP report should give more clarity, and the market sentiment as well as investor strategy in the near term would be influenced by that. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a newly established rising channel, reflecting a possible bullish inclination in spite of recent downward pressure. The pair is presently trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6309, which is an important support level and could be the next point of direction. If this level is sustained, AUD/USD might try and challenge the initial resistance at 0.6408, the three-month high on February 21. A breakdown below this support, however, may allow lower levels, with the next significant support at 0.6187, the four-week low of March 5. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, which indicates that demand continues, but market reservation in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep aggressive moves in either direction under check. FORECAST AUD/USD may witness a rise, especially if the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release is disappointing and weakens the US Dollar. A disappointing NFP print, which would be weaker than anticipated, might raise speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thus supporting risk assets such as the Australian Dollar. Moreover, any encouraging news in China’s economic policies, like additional stimulus packages or improved trade performance, might favor AUD’s rebound. If the bullish pressure intensifies, the pair could try to push above the major resistance level of 0.6408, with a subsequent move towards 0.6440 if global risk appetite continues to improve. On the other hand, AUD/USD could be prone to further losses if the US NFP report comes in better than expected, pushing the US Dollar higher. A more robust labor market report may solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on rate cuts, driving up USD demand. Moreover, persistent trade

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Australian Dollar Consolidates Strength on Economic Data and US Dollar Weakness as Major Events Loom

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  • March 5, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate its strength as the US Dollar (USD) stays weak in the face of economic uncertainty and the pending major data releases. Australia’s GDP growth beat forecasts in Q4 2024, bolstering confidence in the economy, while China’s better-than-expected Services PMI further underpinned the AUD. On the other hand, the US is grappling with rising trade policy concerns as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled potential reappraisal of Trump’s tariffs that have already influenced market mood. The AUD/USD pair is quoted around 0.6260, with technicals indicating support at the nine-day EMA and potential downward risks if major support levels are breached. While the market waits for the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, AUD’s strength is once again the currency market focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, beating forecast, affirming economic strength and backing the Australian Dollar during global uncertainty. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested President Trump is considering reversing recently raised tariffs, injecting uncertainty into the US Dollar and affecting market sentiment. • China’s Services PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.4, signaling steady economic growth and offering indirect support to the AUD through trade relations. • The upcoming ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change could influence the USD’s trajectory, shaping short-term movements in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching key economic and policy developments impacting the Australian Dollar and US Dollar. Australia’s better-than-anticipated Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% has strengthened optimism in the economy, while China’s better Services PMI indicates stable growth, indirectly benefiting the AUD. In contrast, uncertainty surrounds US trade policy, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting that President Trump might roll back recently imposed tariffs, creating market volatility. With the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change due for release, investors are weighing the possible influence on the USD, which is still under pressure. These factors combined determine the short-term direction of AUD/USD, with traders keeping an eye on technical support and resistance levels. Australia’s robust Q4 GDP expansion and China’s better Services PMI underpin the Australian Dollar, while uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy continues to keep the USD under pressure. Market participants are looking for pivotal US economic data releases, including ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, to gauge the influence on AUD/USD momentum. • Q4 2024 GDP expanded 0.6% QoQ, above market expectations and further underpinning economic resilience. • The USD is under pressure with market sentiment weighed down by economic uncertainties and trade policy issues. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted Trump might revisit recently imposed tariffs, injecting volatility in the forex market. • The sudden spike to 51.4 indicates consistent economic growth, implicitly backing the Australian Dollar. • Speculators look out for confirmation of releases of major US economic data to determine the short-term direction of the USD. • The two trade close to 0.6260, with support at 0.6271 (nine-day EMA) and possible downside towards 0.6187. • Global trade uncertainty and economic data continue to play a crucial role in driving movements of the forex market, determining AUD/USD trends. The Australian Dollar continues to be strong amidst major economic events and international trade uncertainties. Australia’s GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4 was above market forecasts, indicating the strength of the economy despite global difficulties. Also, China’s better-than-anticipated Services PMI at 51.4 indicates consistent growth, indirectly favoring the AUD because of robust trade relations between the two countries. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still evaluating economic risks, with policymakers keeping a close eye on inflation and labor market performance to inform future monetary policy. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade policy continues to be a pressing issue, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that President Trump might revisit the recently levied tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the trade actions has caused apprehension regarding their long-term effects on economic growth and global trade patterns. Additionally, the US suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, creating yet another layer of geopolitical stress for the market. While investors wait for major US economic releases, such as ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, sentiment in the market is subdued, with attention to economic stability and policy guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6260, with sideways action as the market conditions are evaluated by traders. The pair has immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6271, and a stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of about 0.6303. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, which reflects a risk-averse market sentiment with weak bullish pressure. On the negative side, the major support is at 0.6187, the four-week low seen on March 5. A fall below this level might trigger further drops to 0.6087. With future US economic data releases, AUD/USD price movements might experience greater volatility, impacting short-term technical trends. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) can witness further gains if economic data keeps supporting positive sentiment in the market. With Australia’s Q4 GDP beating forecasts and China’s economic data indicating resilience, the AUD has fundamentals to support gains. If risk sentiment remains steady globally and US economic worries continue, the AUD/USD currency pair can challenge resistance around 0.6300 in the near future. Also, any signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding holding or changing monetary policy could affect investor sentiment and add more support for the currency pair. Downside-wise, the AUD/USD pair remains susceptible to external threats from US trade policy and economic uncertainty in the world. If the US Dollar strengthens on more robust-than-anticipated economic news or a change in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the pair might experience fresh selling pressure. A breakdown below the key support of 0.6187 would initiate a more severe pullback to 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020. Also, geopolitical tensions, including the US suspension of military assistance to Ukraine, may enhance market volatility, which would trigger risk-off sentiment to weigh on the Australian Dollar.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure: Soft Economic Data and Trade Tensions Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • February 27, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is under pressure today due to weak economic data, increasing US-China trade tensions, and a robust US Dollar. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly, which caused concerns regarding economic growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be guarded on rate cuts in the future. Global trade tensions, such as new US tariffs and China restrictions, provide additional downside risks to the AUD. Technicals are bearish and point to 0.6300 as the key support. But a change in market mood or weaker US economic data might prompt a short-term recovery. Traders will watch closely for economic releases and policy announcements for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The surprise 0.2% decline in Private Capital Expenditure and soft CPI readings add to doubts over the economic resilience and growth forecasts of Australia. • The USD remains on the rise amidst risk-off sentiment, fueled by robust economic performance, trade policy changes, and increasingly hawkish Fed tone. • Rising US-China tensions surrounding trade, tariff escalations, and heightened chip export restraints may additionally put more pressure on the Australian Dollar given the dependence of Australian trade on China. • AUD/USD retests key support at 0.6300. A failure can see it test 0.6087, whereas for recovery, it needs to breach resistance at 0.6329. The Australian Dollar remains pressured by dovish domestic economic indicators and a worsening US-China trade tensions risk souring sentiment in the markets. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure decreased unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, disappointing expectations of an 0.8% gain, while also failing to contain consumer inflation expectations. At the same time, the US Dollar keeps rising under risk-off sentiment, supported by economic strength and hardening trade measures in the Trump administration. As the AUD/USD currency pair is about 0.6300 support level, additional downside risks arise should trade war tensions escalate or risk mood turn negative. Traders look ahead to future economic releases and policy news for added guidance. The Australian Dollar depreciates as weak economic news and growing US-China trade tensions bear down on mood. The AUD/USD currency pair remains close to 0.6300 support, subject to downside pressures with a firm US Dollar. Market players watch for future policy changes and global economic trends for further guidance. • Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q4 2024, marking below-forecast 0.8% growth, reflecting economic slowdown fears. • The USD is still strong as risk-off conditions prevail, fueled by a robust economy, hawkish Fed stance, and trade policy changes. • Heightened US-China trade tensions, such as more stringent tariff policy and the export restriction of chips, elevate uncertainty over the Australian Dollar. • The RBA recently slashed interest rates to 4.10% but is wary of further easing, with an eye on inflation and labor markets. • Being Australia’s top trading partner, any China slowdown or policy change, including monetary measures by PBOC, would impact the AUD. • AUD/USD is probing support at pivotal 0.6300, with a possibility of falling to 0.6087 if bearish pressure continues, while resistance is at 0.6329. • Risk aversion, geopolitical factors, and global economic trends will be key factors influencing AUD/USD’s short-term direction. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure as weak economic reports and rising trade tensions in the market generate uncertainty. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, below forecasts, sending warning signs of weakening business spending. Furthermore, inflation reports were not up to expectations, displaying lingering economic woes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just lowered interest rates to 4.10% but is still wary of future monetary policy actions. RBA officials have noted that although inflationary pressures will ease, a robust labor market might sustain price growth, leaving future rate cuts in doubt. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Global trade dynamics also contribute to the Australian Dollar’s woes, especially escalating tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration’s strategy to impose tariffs and limit chip exports to China may affect the economy of Australia because it has a robust trading relationship with China. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is actively pumping liquidity into the financial system, which can have an effect on market stability. With the changing global economic landscape, investors are keeping a close eye on how trade policies and central bank actions influence the prospects of the Australian economy and its currency. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is presently under immense bear pressure, with the price fluctuating around the psychological support of 0.6300. The pair is still below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which is a sign of diminishing short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming the bearish perspective. Further breakdown below 0.6300 would take the pair to lower support levels, while recovery would need a strong break above the 14-day EMA at 0.6323 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6329 to resume bullish momentum. The traders will keenly watch these levels for trend reversals in the next few sessions. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains under downside pressure with weak domestic economic statistics and external trade uncertainty bearing down on sentiment. If bearish pressures continue, AUD/USD may drop below the important 0.6300 support level with potential testing of lower levels around 0.6200 or even 0.6087 in the short term. Increased global trade deterioration, especially escalating US-China tensions, will put additional pressure on the currency. Furthermore, market unease regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to monetary easing could restrain investor sentiment, further contributing to the bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment turns optimistic, AUD/USD might experience a short-term bounce, especially if risk appetite picks up or US economic news disappoints, causing a weaker US Dollar. A breakout above near-term resistance levels of 0.6323 (14-day EMA) and 0.6329 (nine-day EMA) would indicate a possible recovery. If the bullish momentum picks up, the pair would try to recapture the recent high of 0.6408. But continued upside action will heavily rely on the improvement in Australian economic data

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises on China Stimulus and Fed Rate Cut Expectations as US Dollar Weakens

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  • February 24, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is gaining strength against a weakening US Dollar as a combination of global and domestic factors alters market sentiment. A strong Chinese government policy announcement for 2025, with plans for ambitious rural reforms and detailed rural revitalization plans, has lifted confidence in Australia, as China is its major trading partner. This is compounded by news of government-sponsored developers bidding up land prices in China, a sign of renewed economic activity in the region. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent reduction of the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points—the first in four years—has aided the AUD’s rebound, while Governor Michele Bullock kept inflation pressures and the direction of future rate cuts firmly in check. KEY LOOKOUTS • Watch for China’s future policy cues and rural reform implementation, as successful implementation might continue to fuel land acquisitions and raise the AUD vs. the USD. • US economic data such as PMI readings and unemployment claims remain major drivers of the USD; substantial changes might redefine the AUD/USD path. • Watch the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy cues and possible interest rate movements, as additional loosening can fuel domestic growth and support the AUD’s bullish trend. The Australian Dollar has registered a strong bounce on hopes about China’s 2025 policy statement, which features intentions on rural reforms and a revival of the beleaguered real estate market. On the other hand, the US Dollar has come under pressure in the wake of a string of disappointing economic data points, ranging from soft PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, further fueled by policy actions from President Trump to curb Chinese investments in strategic areas. Overall, the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair is still positive, with the currency trading inside an uptrending channel and receiving support close to major moving averages, suggesting potentially a prolonged bout of strength for the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar is strengthening against a weakening US Dollar, supported by China’s strong policy announcement for 2025 of rural reforms and a rejuvenated property market, while the US is hit by weak economic data and conflicting PMI readings. • China’s 2025 policy announcement outlining rural reforms and property market stimulus boosts Australian optimism, potentially strengthening the AUD due to profound bilateral trade links. • President Trump’s order to cap Chinese investments in major U.S. industries has introduced uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and further weakening USD performance. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point rate reduction—the first in four years—indicates loosening policy, but officials warn that additional cuts are uncertain amidst inflation pressures. • Downbeat U.S. economic reports, such as mixed PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, continue to weigh on the USD, affecting the overall AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. • Federal Reserve officials say that even with strong job growth, ongoing inflation worries could require additional policy action, which could see further rate cuts this year. • Escalating U.S. trade tensions, represented by tariffs against pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and auto parts, may interfere with global supply chains and continue affecting currency fluctuations. • AUD/USD pair in an uptrending channel, enjoys robust support levels close to the key exponential moving averages and resistance at psychological zones. The Australian Dollar is being supported by upbeat economic indications flowing from China’s forward-looking policy statement in 2025. The announcement, which outlines expansive rural reforms and steps to revive the property sector, has increased confidence in Australia markets due to its deep trade relationship with China. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent move to loosen monetary policy via a rate cut indicates attempts to stimulate domestic growth, further supporting the currency. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is under pressure in the context of muted economic data and conservative policy expectations. Weak economic data coupled with fresh curbs on Chinese investments have added to uncertainty, casting a shadow over the US economic upturn. These events highlight the persistent issues in the US economy, leading market participants to reassess future growth opportunities and the wider implications for global trade patterns. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS          AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6370 within an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, suggesting sustained strength, while immediate support levels are evident at the nine-day and 14-day EMAs around 0.6347 and 0.6330, respectively. This is complemented by the lower channel boundary close to 0.6320, while resistance appears around the psychological 0.6400 level and the channel’s top at close to 0.6430, highlighting levels of importance to observe in case of possible trend resumption. FORECAST In the future, the Australian Dollar may continue to gain if favorable developments continue. Favorable policy actions from China to revive its rural and property markets may further fuel trade optimism between the two countries. Moreover, accommodative domestic monetary policies in Australia may further support investor confidence and attract capital inflows, setting the stage for a continued upward trend in the AUD. On the other hand, the AUD could be challenged if negative global or domestic conditions arise. Increased uncertainty from worsening US economic numbers or growing trade tensions would modify market sentiment and lead to a conservative reassessment of risk. Additionally, any change from expected policy developments in China or changes in Australia’s fiscal position could lead to a reversal of the currency’s recent advances, underlining the need to closely watch broader economic signs.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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