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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies as Bets on Fed Rate Cut Rise and China’s Soft Inflation Dims Outlook

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  • September 10, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) steadied on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses as prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September improved sentiment, while weakening bets of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut added to support. Yet, the currency came under pressure following China’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline of 0.4% year-on-year, which reflected lingering economic softness in Australia’s biggest trade partner. Better domestic data, such as a larger trade surplus, improved Q2 GDP growth, and hotter July inflation, have served to contain risks to the downside for the AUD. Market attention turns to the forthcoming US inflation data, which may offer clearer signals for the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Over 93% chances of September 25 bps cut priced in by markets can weigh on the US Dollar and lift the AUD. • 0.4% YoY drop in August CPI is a sign of weak demand in China, which may put pressure on the Australian Dollar because of trade relationships. • Huge trade surplus, GDP expansion, and hotter inflation diminish prospects of imminent RBA rate cuts, providing AUD with some grounding. • This week’s US PPI and CPI reports will be important in gauging the direction of Fed policy and AUD/USD action. The Australian Dollar fluctuated with strength on Wednesday, aided by increasing expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate reduction and diminishing prospects of near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Sturdy domestic underpinnings in the form of a bigger trade surplus, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth, and increased July inflation countered the negative pressure from subdued Chinese inflation data that declined more than anticipated and reflects continued economic weakness in Australia’s main trading partner. As markets placed more than 93% probability of a Fed cut this month, the focus now shifts to future US inflation releases, which may steer the next big move in the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar remained stable as bets on Fed rate cuts improved sentiment, with top-tier Australian data capping downside risks. Weak Chinese inflation, however, kept the currency under pressure, with the focus now shifting to pivotal US inflation reports for direction. • The Australian Dollar stabilized as anticipation for a September Federal Reserve rate reduction grew stronger. • RBA rate cut expectations have eased on the back of Australia’s firmer trade surplus, GDP expansion, and hotter July inflation. • China’s CPI dropped 0.4% YoY in August, pointing to continued weakness in Australia’s major trading partner’s economy. • Markets now place in excess of 93% probability of a Fed 25 bps reduction this month, from 86% last week. • US Nonfarm Payrolls increased a meager 22,000 in August, well short of projections, while unemployment ticked higher to 4.3%. • Australian consumer confidence has deteriorated, portending possible requirement for future RBA easing despite short-term stability. • Market attention turns to the coming US PPI and CPI releases, which will be instrumental for setting Fed policy expectations and AUD/USD direction. The Australian Dollar gained some stability during the middle of the week as markets factored in firmer chances of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and dovish expectations on short-term Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) action provided further support. The economic environment for Australia is still quite solid, with a larger July trade surplus, better-than-forecast second-quarter GDP growth, and hotter-than-expected July inflation supporting the case for the RBA to keep policy unchanged in the near term. All these have assisted in protecting the AUD from external pressures, especially from China’s softer economic performance. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, highlighting weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy and Australia’s most important trading partner. This puts in doubt how weakness in China can spill into Australian exports. While in the United States, the labor market is softer than earlier anticipated, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling below forecast and benchmark revisions indicating weaker employment growth. Market players now await US inflation reports, which will probably determine the next move by the Federal Reserve and affect overall currency market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD currency pair trades around 0.6580, showing a bullish inclination within its daily chart rising channel. The price stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6556, which indicates short-term buying momentum. The immediate resistance is the 10-month high of 0.6625 in late July, followed by the top of the rising channel at around 0.6640. A break above this range could provide the catalyst for a move towards the 11-month high of 0.6687. Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6550–0.6556 area would undermine the bullish thesis, with the 50-day EMA level of 0.6512 being the next main support. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may get additional traction if future US inflation reports support the September Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. A dovish Fed perspective, combined with Australia’s stronger trade surplus, Q2 GDP growth, and higher July inflation, may aid further strength in the AUD/USD pair. A continuation above the 0.6625–0.6640 resistance area will most likely persuade buyers to move towards the 11-month high of 0.6687. On the other hand, poor Chinese economic figures keep bearing down on sentiment, and any additional weakness in demand may cap the Australian Dollar’s upside. Unless the AUD/USD pair manages to stay above the 0.6550 support zone, it may move down towards the 50-day EMA level of 0.6512, with even deeper losses revealing the three-month low of 0.6414. Also, better-than-anticipated US inflation readings will postpone Fed easing intentions, providing the US Dollar renewed vigor and pushing the pair lower.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Trump-Fed Spat and RBA Rate Cut Hints Determine Market Mood

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  • August 26, 2025
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AUD/USD pair increased slightly towards the all-important 0.6500 level on Tuesday after the US Dollar lost some ground following political upheaval at the Federal Reserve. President Trump sent a firing letter to Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage accusations, raising fears of Fed independence and generating weak selling pressure on the Greenback. At the same time, investors look forward to the US Durable Goods Orders data, which is predicted to decline moderately, as the Australian Dollar holds firm despite an early warning of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia later in the year. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s decision to end Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s term sparks renewed fears over central bank independence. • The Greenback weakens, and the DXY falls 0.2% to around 98.20, which provides a boost to AUD/USD. • July Durable Goods Orders are due, which are predicted to decline by 4% compared to June’s more severe 9.3% drop. • The minutes from the RBA foreshadow further interest rate cuts during the year, with judgments subject to data received and overseas threats. AUD/USD rose moderately towards the 0.6500 level on Tuesday as a weaker US Dollar came after President Trump suddenly tried to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage charges injected political and economic volatility. The move further subjected the independence of the Fed to new doubts, putting subtle pressure on the Greenback and enabling the Aussie to make inroads. Traders now look to the coming US Durable Goods Orders report, due to indicate a lower decrease versus June, while the Australian Dollar holds firm in spite of the RBA suggesting possible rate cuts later in the year. AUD/USD inched higher towards 0.6500 after the US Dollar weakened in response to Trump’s bid to sack Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sparking fears of Fed independence. Buyers now focus on US Durable Goods Orders data, with the RBA’s hint of future rate cuts keeping the Aussie in line. • AUD/USD inches closer to the 0.6500 level during Tuesday’s European session. • US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.2 to about 98.20, supporting the Aussie. • Trump seeks to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over suspected false mortgage reports. • Cook contests dismissal, insisting Trump lacks the legal power to remove her. • Fed independence is becoming increasingly cause for concern amid warnings of politcal interference. • Investors look to US Durable Goods Orders data to come through with a 4% drop for July. • RBA minutes indicate further interest rate cuts later in the year, although data will determine the pace. President Trump’s move to order Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook a termination letter created political controversy and reopened questions over the central bank’s independence. As Trump accused Cook of making false claims about mortgage arrangements, she dismissed the allegations and claimed that the President could not remove her. This action is part of Trump’s larger effort to have more control over the Fed, an organization he has often denounced for its policies, according to market observers and analysts. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting minutes revealed that officials remain open to additional interest rate cuts later this year. Policymakers emphasized that the timing and extent of these cuts will depend on the flow of economic data and global conditions. The RBA’s cautious but accommodative stance reflects concerns about growth and inflation, while leaving room to adjust policy based on evolving risks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is probing the psychological level around 0.6500, which has served as a pivot point in recent trading sessions. A break above this range could set the stage for further up-move towards near-term resistance levels, but its inability to stay above 0.6500 could lead to fresh selling interest. Market participants are taking keen interest in price action on this important level as it would decide short-term directional flow for the pair. FORECAST Should the US Dollar remain under selling pressure in face of political stress at the Fed and softer-than-anticipated US data, AUD/USD may gain traction above the 0.6500 level. A clean break higher would likely urge buyers to drive the pair towards near-term resistance levels, supported further if the RBA embraces a cautious rate cut pace. Conversely, any bounce of the Greenback on the back of better US economic data or reducing political turbulence would pressure the pair. Not being able to hold above the 0.6500 level could induce fresh selling, which could drive AUD/USD lower as markets also take into account the RBA’s inclination for further cuts in interest rate this year.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of US NFP Amid Trade Optimism and Mixed Economic Signals

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  • August 1, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) stabilized on Friday, ending its six-day decline as markets became cautious before the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. The currency was supported after President Trump left Australia off the list of countries subject to new US tariff increases, with a 10% baseline tariff being kept in place that would favor Australian exports. Better-than-expected domestic data, such as retail sales and building permits, offered additional insulation, in spite of lower-than-anticipated inflation and producer prices. Soft Chinese manufacturing numbers, however, topping Australia’s biggest trading partner, placed a cap on gains. Following traders’ expectations of US labor market data and continued global trade news, the AUD/USD pair is stuck in a range, trading around 0.6430. KEY LOOKOUTS • There is a wait for US jobs data, which may have an impact on the Fed’s rate perspective and be the driver of USD strength or weakness and hence AUD/USD volatility. • Australia’s exemption from US tariff increases favors AUD sentiment and makes exports to the US market more competitive. • Weak Chinese PMI data is a bear risk to the AUD because Australia has significant trade exposure to China. • AUD/USD is resisted at 0.6487 (9-day EMA) and supported at 0.6421; a break in either direction might decide the short-term trend. The Australian Dollar remained firm on Friday, buoyed by trade sentiment after the US confirmed that Australia would not be slapped with higher tariffs, maintaining its competitiveness advantage in the US market. Even with persistent vigor in the US Dollar and softer Chinese manufacturing figures, the Aussie gained little respite from improved-than-anticipated local retail sales and building approvals. Investors are still wary of the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement, which may have a strong bearing on market sentiment and exchange rates. With divided economic indicators and geopolitical intrigue on the table, the AUD/USD pair continues to fluctuate around the 0.6430 level with scarce momentum in either direction. The Australian Dollar held firm at 0.6430 as market players waited for the US Nonfarm Payrolls data release. Encouragement was provided by firm Australian retail sales and relief from US tariff increases, though poor Chinese manufacturing data capped upside potential. • AUD/USD held firm at 0.6430, bringing an end to a six-day slide in cautious market sentiment. • Australia avoided new US tariffs, with a 10% baseline remaining, which is favorable for export competitiveness. • US Nonfarm Payrolls report is eagerly awaited, with the ability to influence USD strength and move AUD/USD. • Australia’s Retail Sales increased 1.2% MoM in June, coming in above consensus and reflecting strong consumer spending. • Building Permits increased 11.9% MoM, the best growth since May 2023. • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction and dampening AUD sentiment. •  Technical indicators are bearish, with AUD/USD below the 9-day EMA and RSI at less than 50. The Australian Dollar gained stability leading into the weekend as traders redirected attention to next week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The currency received mild support from the United States’ move to leave baseline tariffs on Australian imports in place, continuing to provide exporters with access to the US market without other trade restrictions. Australia’s Trade Minister highlighted the benefit this confers on Australian goods, helping lift volumes of exports. Locally, the economy continued to demonstrate resilience, with retail sales increasing more than anticipated in June and building permits registering a strong revival, indicative of strengthened momentum in consumer spending and housing activity. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nevertheless, external conditions remain threatening, specifically from China, Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Caixin and official PMI both reported weakening manufacturing conditions, emblematic of widespread economic woes. Although China’s government has pledged heightened fiscal stimulus to combat internal headwinds, the slowdown spells anxiety for Australia’s commodity-reliant economy. At the same time, global trade trends continue to be in sharp focus as the US executes new tariff agreements with other nations. The Australian Dollar is still responsive to such cross-border movement, as investors gauge how new policy and economic developments could affect the short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair still displays a bearish inclination, trading below important moving averages. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral 50 line, indicating poor momentum. The two are still trading below the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which adds to the short-term bearish pressure. The nearest support is at 0.6421, two-month low, with a possible slide towards three-month low of 0.6372 if selling increases. On the other hand, the resistance is around the 9-day EMA at 0.6487 and the 50-day EMA at 0.6495, which must be broken for any indication of recovery. FORECAST Should the next US Nonfarm Payrolls release be weaker than anticipated, it might cause a pullback in the US Dollar and provide room for the Australian Dollar to rebound. A break above the 9-day EMA at 0.6487 might convince buyers to drive the pair towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6495. Additional bullish push may continue to drive the rally towards the 0.6625 level, which is the eight-month high, particularly if solid Australian economic data and improving global risk appetite are maintained. On the other hand, better-than-expected US labor market statistics can spur expectations for a tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, which will support the US Dollar and bear down on the AUD/USD pair. A clear break below current immediate support at 0.6421 would set the stage for a more substantial drop to 0.6372, the three-month low. Further China’s economic indicators weakening or increased tensions in global trade could further depress AUD sentiment, having the pair in downward motion.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stable as US Dollar Strengthens as Key US-China Trade Negotiations and Economic Data Are Released

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  • July 29, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is stable at 0.6520 in Tuesday’s Asian session, after three sessions of decline, as US Dollar (USD) gains on optimism about trade again. One of the main points of interest for traders is the return of US-China trade negotiations, which follow days of long-term negotiations in Stockholm and seek to lengthen the current trade truce. In the meantime, the latest US-EU trade agreement, which levies 15% tariffs on most European imports, has also supported the USD. Market participants also await crucial economic data, including Australia’s June labor force and Q2 inflation figures, which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will closely monitor ahead of any policy decisions. Technical indicators show a weakening momentum for AUD/USD, with the pair trading below the nine-day EMA and the RSI slipping under 50. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors remain focused on the result of restarted trade talks, designed to lengthen the current truce and conclude a comprehensive tariff deal. • The newly released US-EU agreement, placing 15% tariffs on European products, remains favorable for the US Dollar and might bear down on AUD/USD further. • The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely make its rate decision based on the forthcoming June labor market data and Q2 CPI releases, both due later this week. • The US Federal Reserve meeting and press conference in July will be watched closely for any indication of possible rate cuts from September. Australian Dollar is trading around the 0.6520 level as the US Dollar gains on fresh trade optimism and a new trade agreement between the US and the EU. Market participants wait for the result of US-China trade negotiations that resumed after protracted talks in Stockholm and hope to prolong the existing truce and agree on a long-term pact. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching closely for the June labor force data as well as second-quarter inflation readings, both of which will have an important bearing on its next policy move. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve’s next meeting and any indication of future rate cuts will also be a significant driver of AUD/USD action in the near term. The Australian Dollar is flat around 0.6520 while the US Dollar gains on optimism about trade. The markets look to US-China trade negotiations and major Australian economic releases. RBA and Fed policy cues will be important for the direction of the pair. • AUD/USD is around 0.6520, consolidating the previous three losing sessions. • US Dollar finds support from a newly agreed US-EU trade pact with 15% tariffs on European products. • US-China trade talks resumed in Stockholm to continue the trade truce and set long-term tariff terms. • The RBA is paying close attention to June labor force data and Q2 CPI numbers in preparing its policy decisions. • The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged at the July meeting, with the market looking out for signs of September rate cuts. • Technicals reveal weakness in AUD/USD as the pair continues to trade below the 9-day EMA and RSI falls below 50. • Market sentiment continues to remain cautious as traders responded to both global trade news and domestic economic indicators. The Australian Dollar continues to hold relatively firm as market players turn their attention to upcoming global trade news and major economic indicators. US-China trade talks resumption has garnered much focus, particularly following a prolonged Stockholm meeting of top officials that had the objective of clearing impasses and extending the ongoing trade truce. The talks are coming as early as the August 12 deadline for sealing a comprehensive pact with the US is near, further fueling market expectations. In the meantime, the latest US-EU trade pact has given the US Dollar a leg up, strengthening its position in a number of key currency pairs. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely take a close look at the next month’s June labor force report and second-quarter inflation readings before setting any monetary policy. These numbers are said to be important in deciding whether more policy relaxation is needed in the next several months. The market is also waiting for hints from the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting, especially any guidance on possible rate cuts this year. With both global and domestic forces coming together, the future direction of the Australian Dollar will then be reliant on the outcomes of these major events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is quoted at 0.6520 and below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which reflects a weakening short-term momentum. The pair is still trading in an upward channel, which is generally a bullish formation; however, the recent fall in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the 50 level reflects growing bearish pressure. This discrepancy between the wider channel support and the short-term indicators suggests possible consolidation or a minor corrective phase unless bullish momentum returns to strength. Market players will be monitoring a strong breakout above the EMA or a breakdown beneath the channel support to establish the next directional bias. FORECAST If favorable momentum returns, the AUD/USD currency pair would have a possibility to bounce towards the 0.6560 resistance level if US-China trade negotiations reveal positive developments or if Australia’s future labor force and inflation reports surprise to the upside. A dovish US Federal Reserve turn or evidence of economic strength in Australia can also favor the pair. Crossing above the nine-day EMA and showing renewed momentum in the RSI would also confirm a bull reversal. Downside risks, however, remain should US Dollar strength continue under trade optimism and calm Fed policy indications. AUD/USD then could find it difficult to sustain current positions, and hence might fall to the 0.6480 or even 0.6450 support levels. Poor Australian economic reports or rising global risk aversion could enhance the slide. A further breakdown below the EMA and prolonged RSI weakness would strengthen bearish views in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Battered as RBA Caution, US Dollar Strength, and International Trade Tensions Deter Sentiment

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  • July 22, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is continuing to feel the heat against the US Dollar (USD) as risk appetite is reduced and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sticks to its cautious approach to monetary easing. The publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes served to emphasize a reluctance to move before seeing more definitive signs of slowing inflation, to temper AUD momentum. Concurrently, overseas uncertainties such as rising US-China trade tensions, speculation regarding the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and conflicting signals surrounding US monetary policy have favored the revival of the US Dollar. With China leaving its Loan Prime Rates steady and economic indicators revealing unequal recovery, the AUD/USD currency pair still hovers around 0.6520, with resistance at the nine-day EMA. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is monitoring closely for hints at the timing and magnitude of possible rate reductions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, particularly under uncertainty surrounding inflation. • Any news prior to the August 12 deadline regarding the US-China tariff deal could weigh heavily on risk sentiment and affect the AUD. •USD movements continue to be fueled by ongoing issues surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve and rate cut hopes. •Given its status as Australia’s major trading partner, China’s GDP growth, retail sales, and industrial output releases will remain pivotal in determining the direction of AUD. The Australian Dollar is weaker against the US Dollar as risk-off sentiment in world markets. The July Meeting Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia reaffirmed a wait-and-watch strategy towards further cuts in rates, waiting to see clear evidence of falling inflation. At the same time, the US Dollar is supported by safe-haven demand, increased geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the policy orientation and leadership stability of the Federal Reserve. With Chinese economic data showing mixed signals and trade tensions with the US remaining, the outlook for the AUD is unclear, which continues to keep the AUD/USD pair muted around the 0.6520 level. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure on defensive RBA policy cues and world risk aversion. The US Dollar is strong on safe-haven buying and increased uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership and trade war tensions. The AUD/USD currency pair trades at around 0.6520, pinned back by the nine-day EMA. • The Australian Dollar is still low after the RBA being cautious about rate cuts. •  RBA Meeting Minutes indicate members would rather wait for more certain evidence of slowing inflation. •  US Dollar strengthens in response to safe-haven buying and uncertainty around the Fed. •  US-China trade tensions rise ahead of the August 12 tariff agreement deadline. •  China leaves its Loan Prime Rates unchanged; mixed economic releases put pressure on AUD. •  Speculation surrounding Fed Chair Powell’s future contributes to market uncertainty. •  AUD/USD trades near 0.6520, testing resistance at the nine-day EMA with support around 0.6493. The Australian Dollar remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to adopt a cautious approach to monetary policy. The central bank’s July Meeting Minutes revealed that most members agreed it would be premature to implement further rate cuts without clear evidence of slowing inflation. This conservative tone indicates a desire for stability and a slow path to economic adjustments. At the same time, international investors are keenly observing Australia’s economic relationships with China, particularly as China’s economic performance remains a sign of uneven recovery. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Internationally, the US Dollar is being supported by increased risk aversion and speculation regarding the direction and leadership of the Federal Reserve. Increasing confusion surrounding US-China trade negotiations and Washington’s political tensions, such as controversies surrounding Fed Chair Powell’s role, are creating a conservative market climate. Furthermore, conflicting messages from US policymakers concerning interest rate policy are keeping market participants nervous. These international forces, paired with Australia’s domestic policy landscape, are helping to drive the performance of the Australian Dollar in the currency market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6520, just below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6524 that provides immediate resistance. The pair is currently in an uptrend channel, which also indicates a possible bullish tilt in case it crosses this level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the neutral 50 level, meaning that there is no sufficient momentum in either direction. On the flip side, the 50-day EMA at 0.6493 is the major support level; a clear break below here would set the stage towards the lower limit of the channel at about 0.6470. FORECAST If the AUD/USD currency pair is able to close above the short-term resistance at the nine-day EMA level of 0.6524, it may become bullish again on a short-term basis. A closing move above this level could take the pair to the recent high of 0.6595, which appeared on July 11. Any favorable news in international trade negotiations or a change of tone from RBA for a more favorable economic outlook could also go in favor of further upward movement. To the downside, a failure to stay above 50-day EMA support at 0.6493 may spark more falls. A break below here would tend to target the uptrend channel’s lower edge around 0.6470, with further losses threatening the three-week low of 0.6454. Ongoing risk aversion, weak Chinese economic reports, or unexpectedly strong US reports might press further on the Australian Dollar.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Gains on Strong Chinese Figures and USD Weakness Before US CPI Release

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  • July 15, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rose higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, boosted by better-than-predicted economic indicators in China—Australia’s major trade partner—and weakening USD before the release of the US CPI. The Q2 GDP in China rose 5.2% year-over-year, beating estimates, and Industrial Production also surpassed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions such as threats from ex-US President Trump of tariffs weighed on the US Dollar, together with market prudence leading up to the critical inflation data. Local confidence in Australia slightly improved but concerns persist regarding the RBA’s rate outlook, with inflation risks and global uncertainties still in the spotlight. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Consumer Price Index report next is being closely monitored by investors, which would potentially affect the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in the future and US dollar strength. • Even though rates remained unchanged in July, the prospects of an impending August rate cut still loom, particularly with inflation threats and subdued productivity in focus by RBA officials. • Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese can influence future trade and drive AUD sentiment. • Trump’s suggested tariffs on Russia, EU, and Mexico and secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers could drive global market volatility and shape USD movements. Australian Dollar is strengthening against the US Dollar, supported by positive economic reports from China and a muted greenback in anticipation of the release of critical US inflation data. Recent better-than-expected GDP and Industrial Production figures from China have enhanced sentiment toward the AUD, as Australian trade connections are strong with China. In contrast, geopolitical tensions—such as Trump’s recent tariff threats and international trade tensions—have weighed on the USD. Locally, Australia’s consumer confidence registered a slight increase, but doubts continue regarding the next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as inflation. The focus now shifts to the coming US CPI numbers, which have the potential to be a turning point for the short-term trajectory of the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar surged as optimistic Chinese economic figures improved investor mood, while the US Dollar declined in anticipation of crucial CPI releases. Geopolitical tensions and RBA policy uncertainty are still shaping market action. US inflation releases are awaited for additional guidance on AUD/USD direction. • AUD/USD up as impressive Chinese GDP and Industrial Production statistics improve optimism. • China’s Q2 GDP up 5.2% YoY, better than expectations of 5.1%, which supports the Aussie Dollar. • US Dollar falls in anticipation of significant CPI numbers, providing AUD/USD with upside tailwind. • Geopolitics escalates with Trump threatening fresh tariffs against Russia, EU, and Mexico. • RBA leaves rates unchanged, with potential cut in August due to inflation fears and poor productivity. • Australia’s Consumer Confidence increased modestly by 0.6% in July, reflecting modest optimism. • AUD/USD technicals exhibit bullish bias, trading close to 0.6550 in an uptrending channel. The Australian Dollar was supported on Tuesday by solid economic data from China—Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year was higher than market forecast, while Industrial Production was also better than expected. These supportive data points boosted market sentiment in the Australian economy, given its high trade linkage with China. Also, a minor increase in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence showed cautious optimism from households, even as cost-of-living pressures persist and the interest rate outlook remains uncertain. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, world geopolitical events have given rise to a more conservative trading climate. Threats by the former US President Donald Trump to apply very harsh tariffs on Russia, along with so-called secondary tariffs on nations that import Russian oil, have boosted fears about growing trade tensions. Additional suggested tariffs on imports of the European Union and Mexico have contributed to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US government registered a June budget surplus powered mainly by record customs duty receipts, underscoring the increasing influence of trade policy on economic performance. These events continue to influence market mood throughout the lead-up to the US CPI report. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is exhibiting a mild bullish inclination as it hovers around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6550, aided by an uptrend channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the neutral 50 level, indicating that buyers continue to have a small advantage. A break above the recent high of 0.6595 would open the doors for additional gains towards the upper end of the channel at 0.6690. On the bearish side, support is immediately available at the lower edge of the upward channel at 0.6520, with more robust support at the 50-day EMA at 0.6488. FORECAST As long as the positive momentum prevails, particularly if it is supported by a softer US CPI figure or better risk appetite, the AUD/USD rate may try to break above the recent high of 0.6595. A breach of this level may draw fresh buying interest, boosting the pair to the upper edge of the rising channel in the region of 0.6690. Moreover, favorable news from the ongoing China-Australia trade talks or the easing of international tensions may further support the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if US inflation figures are hotter than anticipated, this could revive expectations for extended higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, bolstering the US Dollar and applying pressure on AUD/USD. A fall below near-term support at 0.6520 would risk deeper losses, potentially down to the 50-day EMA around 0.6488 or even the three-week low of 0.6485. Increasing geopolitical tensions or Reserve Bank of Australia dovish hints may also put pressure on the Aussie in the short term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Falls Towards Critical Support as US Tariff Fears Reignite Global Trade Maladies

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  • July 4, 2025
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Australian Dollar falls against the US Dollar again, with AUD/USD moving towards the 0.6550 mark as revived fears over US tariffs spark global risk aversion. Market mood suffered following confirmation by President Trump to inform trading partners of forthcoming unilateral tariffs, which heightened the specter of a disturbance of global trade—specifically for export-focused economies such as Australia. The currency pair is also dragged down by firmer-than-anticipated US jobs data, which dampened hopes of imminent Fed rate cuts. Technically, AUD/USD is approaching an important support area at 0.6535–0.6545, the neckline of a possible Double Top pattern, which could indicate the potential for a more substantial correction if the level breaks. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are closely monitoring President Trump’s official letters to trading partners, which have the potential to further augment global trade tensions. • The 0.6535–0.6545 region is an important neckline support; a breakdown here might see further losses. • Further robust US labor market data could lower the prospects of Fed rate reductions, helping to support the USD. • Shifts in global risk appetite, fueled by trade or geopolitical events, would have a major influence on AUD/USD movement. AUD/USD remains under pressure as international markets prepare for possible disruptions in trade due to renewed threats from US tariffs. President Trump’s assurance that trading partners will receive letters on unilateral tariffs has been a cause of concern among investors, particularly for those economies with a strong export orientation such as Australia. Combined with more robust than anticipated US employment statistics that deflate expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, sentiment has become cautious. With increasing risk aversion, the Australian Dollar is still exposed, with market players closely monitoring any development prior to the July 9 tariff deadline. AUD/USD sinks towards 0.6550 as revived US tariff concerns subdue risk appetite. Encouraging US jobs data and impending trade tensions bear down on the Aussie Dollar. The pair looks to pivotal support at 0.6535–0.6545, with a potential breakdown indicating further losses. • AUD/USD continues to fall for a second day in succession, trading around 0.6550. • US tariff fears return with President Trump threatening letters to trade partners. • Risk aversion worldwide rises, causing stress for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie Dollar. • More-than-anticipated US NFP numbers lowers expectations for early Fed rate reductions. • Double Top pattern emerges at 0.6590, indicating a reversal to the downside. • The main support at 0.6535–0.6545, the Double Top’s neckline. • Break below 0.6535 can lead to a further decline towards 0.6510, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The Australian Dollar is in decline as international markets become more risk-averse in anticipation of a further tightening in US trade policy. President Trump’s move to send formal letters to trading nations on unilateral tariffs has increased the prospect of a new wave of trade tensions. This has weighed heavily on sentiment for risk-sensitive assets, with Australia exposed in particular given its dependence on international trade and commodity exports. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView To the already defensive sentiment is added the robust US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which identified ongoing firmness in the US labor market. The news has reduced hopes for near-term monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, diverting investor attention from rate cut expectations and into global economic risks. As the July 9 deadline nears, market participants are preparing for possible disruptions that would influence not only trade flows, but also general economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is exhibiting bearish momentum after registering a Double Top pattern around the 0.6590 level. The pair now tests the neckline support at 0.6535–0.6545, a key zone that, if broken, could validate the pattern and indicate a deeper correction. The Thursday’s lower high and the 4-hour RSI below the 50 level also confirm the bearish inclination. A confirmed breakdown below the neckline would set the pair on the path towards 0.6510, corresponding with significant Fibonacci retracement levels, and a bounce above 0.6590 would be required to reinstate the bullish thesis. FORECAST If bearish pressure persists and AUD/USD erodes below the 0.6535–0.6545 support range, it may validate the Double Top formation and initiate a deeper correction. The next lower target would be at 0.6510, which also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upmove and the June 27 swing low. A break below this level could lead to more losses down to the psychological 0.6500 level and even 0.6475 in the near future. On the positive side, a bounce above the 0.6590 resistance—the Double Top peak—would invalidate the bearish configuration and indicate fresh bullish strength. This would set up a rise towards the 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extensions at 0.6610 and 0.6640, respectively. A clean breakout above 0.6640 would entice additional buyers and drive the pair towards new highs, particularly if sentiment picks up and trade tensions are eased.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Bounces Back with Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty

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  • June 18, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) modestly rebounded against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday despite risk aversion dampened by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The rebound follows after the AUD/USD pair incurred more than 0.50% losses in the last session. In spite of risk-off sentiment that is still prevalent because of continued hostilities between Iran and Israel, the AUD was supported by a weaker US Dollar, held down by poor US retail sales statistics and expectations that interest rates at present levels will be kept by the Federal Reserve. Investors also watch for further updates on Australian labor market statistics and other global trade and political tensions for new directional signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • Israel-Iran conflict will continue to bear on risk sentiment and facilitate safe-haven flows to the US Dollar. • Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement in June and expect none but increasing speculation for rate cuts in September and October. • Later this week, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will feed into RBA’s policy view and drive AUD action. • AUD/USD faces key resistance at the nine-day EMA (0.6495) and June’s high (0.6552), with potential to climb further if these levels are breached. Australian Dollar managed to edge higher against the US Dollar despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and a generally risk-averse market environment. The rebound comes after a steep fall in the previous session, supported by softer-than-expected US retail sales figures and a weaker US Dollar as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s policy statement. Investors are still wary of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and are watching closely for Australia’s impending labor market data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy trajectory. Technical indicators indicate that AUD/USD pair is trading within an uptrend channel, indicating a cautiously positive tone for the pair in the short term. The Australian Dollar recovers despite increased geopolitical tensions and risk-off mood. Deteriorating US retail sales and weaker Greenback provide short-term support to AUD/USD. Markets currently expect the Fed’s policy announcement and Australia’s labor figures for additional guidance. •  The Australian Dollar recovered from its 0.50% loss in the last session. •  AUD/USD is under pressure from subdued risk appetite owing to Israel-Iran tensions. •  The US Dollar came under pressure following poor US retail sales prints (-0.9% in May). •  The Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates steady in June. •  Markets are factoring in near-term Fed rate cuts in September and October. •  Australia’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures are coming later this week. •  Technically, AUD/USD is ranging within an upward channel, reflecting a conservative bullish inclination. The Australian Dollar is demonstrating strength in the face of difficult global environment characterized by rising geo-political tensions. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains to influence investor appetite, with worries of greater regional instability heightened. In a significant diplomatic initiative, Iran has approached Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia and asked them to call on U.S. leadership for a ceasefire at the earliest. These developments have strengthened safe-haven demand, especially of the US Dollar, with market participants being prepared for potential escalations that may cause churn in global markets and energy supplies. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, economic indicators from the US and China are affecting the overall market mood. US retail sales declined deeper than anticipated in May, indicative of weakening consumer spending. This has supported speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon look at policy easing, with markets looking for possible rate reductions later this year. Conversely, Chinese retail sales were better than expected, indicating some resilience in domestic demand, albeit industrial production slightly under forecast. Locally, Australia’s coming employment data continues to be a major interest for traders, as it could inform expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next monetary policy move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD continues to be supported in an uptrending channel on the daily chart, indicating a prevailing bearish bias in the short term. The currency pair is sitting just above 0.6480, near the lower edge of the channel that serves as instantaneous support. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the mid-point 50 level, showing a marginal bullish bias. The price is, however, below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6495, which shows some near-term weakness. A continued breakout above this EMA would set the stage for a test of the recent high at 0.6552 and potentially the upper edge of the channel around 0.6740, whereas a decline below 0.6480 would undermine the bullish picture and leave the 50-day EMA support at 0.6431. FORECAST If risk sentiment were to settle and positive surprises in future Australian employment statistics, the AUD/USD pair would be likely to pick up on its upward momentum. A move above the current resistance at the nine-day EMA (0.6495) could see a test of the last high at 0.6552. Serious bullish pressure could take the pair to the eight-month high at 0.6687, then the top of the rising channel at around 0.6740, particularly if the US Dollar continues to break lower on bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the negative side, fresh geopolitical tensions or poor Australian labor market statistics may dampen the Australian Dollar. A fall through the ascending channel’s lower line at 0.6480 would confirm a trend change and open the way to the 50-day EMA at 0.6431. Losses could push the pair further down to the 0.6400 psychological level, especially if the US Dollar as a safe haven gains further strength during continued global uncertainty.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Investors Wait for Key US CPI and Treasury Sale

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  • June 11, 2025
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AUD/USD exchange rate remains close to the 0.6500 level as sentiment in the markets becomes guarded in the run-up to important US economic releases. Although initial expectations of a US-China trade agreement provided short-term relief to the Australian Dollar, diminishing faith in the permanence of the deal has resumed selling pressure. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar is capping the downside for the Aussie. Traders now look to the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a large 10-year Treasury Bond auction, both of which are likely to bring better guidance on the greenback and determine the next direction of the AUD/USD pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are closely monitoring the release of US Consumer Price Index data due out, with hopes of a modest increase in inflation having a potential influence on Federal Reserve policy and USD strength. • The $39 bln 10-year Treasury auction may tell us about investor faith in US fiscal soundness, with thin demand perhaps adding further pressure on the US Dollar. • There is still doubt over the long-term viability of the recent US-China trade deal, especially with regards to rare earth metals and tariffs, that may affect risk sentiment and commodity currencies such as the Aussie. • The pair is probing important psychological support around 0.6500; any drop below this level may unveil additional downside, while holding here may prompt short-term re-covering contingent on US data results. Australian Dollar traded weakly as dimming hopes for the preliminary US-China trade accord dragged market sentiment lower. While initial news of the agreement to roll back curbs on rare earth metals and lower tariffs initially boosted risk appetite, failure to provide tangible details has caused investors to doubt its sustainability. In the meantime, the US Dollar’s recent retreat has forestalled further losses for the Aussie and kept the AUD/USD pair close to the 0.6500 level. Market players now begin focusing on the next US CPI report and Treasury Bond auction, which are likely to be pivotal in setting the near-term direction of the currency pair. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6500 as markets wait for significant US economic releases. Dwindling faith in the US-China trade agreement has contained the gains in the Aussie, while a soft US Dollar provides some support. The release of US CPI and upcoming Treasury auction should determine the next course. • AUD/USD trades around 0.6500 in conservative market mood. • US-China trade deal optimism in early stages gives way to disappointment due to insufficient clear details. • Soft US Currency keeps the Australian Dollar from its deeper losses. • US Dollar Index withdraws back below 99.00 following recent highs. • Traders look for US CPI numbers, which are likely to reveal a slight increase in inflation. • A $39 bln US Treasury 10-year bond sale can dictate USD sentiment. • Major support for AUD/USD is at the 0.6500 psychological line. The Australian Dollar is being driven by changing global sentiment as investors absorb the latest news between China and the US. Both nations are reported to have agreed on a preliminary deal to relax rare metal trade restrictions and reduce some tariffs. Yet with scant official information, markets are holding back on jumping to conclusions about the long-term implications and durability of the deal. This doubt continues to drive investor behavior as they navigate the global dynamics of trade. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, eyes are shifting towards important coming events in the US that can potentially affect global financial markets. The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide valuable information on inflation trends, while the $39 billion auction of the 10-year Treasury bond can indicate investor sentiment towards US fiscal policy. Both events have the potential to move overall market mood and currency valuations, making them vital for traders to watch. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is trading close to the crucial psychological support of 0.6500. A consistent stay above this level might prompt buyers to aim for the immediate resistance near 0.6550, then the 0.6600 zone. On the bearish side, a clear break below 0.6500 might set the scene for lower levels towards 0.6450 and even 0.6400. Technical indicators on the shorter charts indicate a neutral to weak bearish slant, with the traders waiting for more decisive cues from future US data releases. FORECAST In the event of the US CPI releasing below market expectations or a muted pick-up, it could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. This would soften the US Dollar, supporting the AUD/USD to rise above the 0.6500 level. Anything positive on the US-China trade deal as well as any further clarification regarding the deal would enhance risk appetite, further supporting the Australian Dollar. On the other hand, if US inflation figures surprise to the upside, this can stoke anticipation of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, increasing the attractiveness of the US Dollar and applying downward pressure to AUD/USD. Additionally, poor demand for the US Treasury bond auction can fuel worries about US fiscal health, which could initially bring risk assets such as the Aussie under pressure. But ongoing uncertainty regarding the US-China trade deal would maintain the pair under selling pressure if investor sentiment remains uncertain.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Moves Back Towards 0.6500 as Soft US Data Deters Dollar Strength

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  • June 4, 2025
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AUD/USD currency pair moved back higher on Wednesday, moving back towards the 0.6500 level as the US Dollar fell back after weaker-than-anticipated economic data. Even with the news that Australia’s GDP grew at only 0.2% in Q1 and saw its business activity barely move in May, the Australian Dollar picked up following the deterioration in the Greenback. US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI both came in below expectations, indicating a deceleration in the US economy and stoking speculation of a Federal Reserve policy change. The pair’s rally shows the market’s responsiveness to US macroeconomic data, with more to come before Australia’s trade numbers and the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS • A vital determinant that may impact Fed rate expectations and trigger meaningful USD movement. •  Could offer short-term guidance on the AUD based on export result and trade surplus data. • A significant psychological and technical level; a clean breakout might indicate additional bullish pressure. •  Market sentiment for a dovish tilt may continue to press on the US Dollar if weak data continues. AUD/USD pair is displaying strength, rebounding against the critical 0.6500 level as the US Dollar falters with dismal economic reports. Disappointing employment figures from the ADP and an unexpected weakening in the ISM Services PMI have created doubts regarding the vigour of the US economy, fueling speculation regarding a possible policy change from the Federal Reserve. Even though Australia’s own weaker GDP growth and muted PMI readings failed to make a dent, the Australian Dollar recovered later from early losses on technical support around the 0.6450 level. Attention now turns to subsequent Australian trade data and the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may provide the pair with fresh impetus. AUD/USD recovered to around 0.6500 as the US Dollar softened on weak jobs and services data. In spite of Australia’s poor GDP, the Aussie was supported by technical buying and USD weakness. Traders now look for Australia’s trade data and the US NFP report for direction. • AUD/USD recovered back to 0.6500, recovering losses from weak Australian GDP data. •  US Dollar lower following underwhelming ADP employment (37,000 vs. 115,000 anticipated) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 anticipated). • Australian Q1 GDP eased to 0.2% QoQ, the weakest expansion in three quarters, below forecasts of 0.4%. • S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs indicated limited growth, with readings hovering marginally above 50. • Technical floor at 0.6450 remained in place, triggering fresh AUD buying interest. • DXY (US Dollar Index) fell below 99.00, indicative of broad USD weakness in the face of weak US data. • The next major move in the pair is most likely to be influenced by upcoming Australian trade data and US Nonfarm Payrolls. The Australian currency strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, primarily fueled by a weakening Greenback in the wake of softer-than-projected US economic data. The ADP Employment Change report showed a sharp deceleration of hiring, with private companies adding just 37,000 jobs in May — the weakest in more than a year. Further, the ISM Services PMI dipped into contraction ground for the first time this year, an indication of a larger moderation in the services sector. These points have provoked alarm regarding the health of the U.S. economy and heightened market speculation surrounding a possible change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, Australia’s domestic data showed a mixed reading. Although GDP growth eased to 0.2% for the first quarter, the lowest rate in three quarters, the economy maintained its record of unbroken expansion. The most recent PMI readings revealed marginal movement in business activity, and overall indicative of a generally slow but stable economic climate. As focus shifts now towards Australia’s next trade balance and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, market players continue to watch closely how changing economic indicators will influence central bank projections and currency action over the next few days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is pointing towards a rebound after it encountered solid support around the 0.6450 level, which has served as a floor in successive sessions. The pair is currently hinting at testing the 0.6500 psychological resistance, a level that has halted rallies on several occasions, meaning that a decisive breakout above it may pave the way for further gains. Momentum tools such as the RSI are slowly shifting into positive territory, reflecting renewed buying demand. But persistence above 0.6500 is the key to establishing a bullish breakout, while a failure to break this level might lead to further consolidation around the range thus far. FORECAST AUD/USD exchange rate manages to move above the 0.6500 resistance level, it might initiate further bullish momentum, particularly if future releases from Australia indicate a higher trade surplus or in case the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes short. A breakthrough above this psychological level might unlock the way to the next resistance around 0.6550 or further, as sentiment towards the Australian Dollar improves. Further deterioration in US economic data could also generate speculation regarding further Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting the pair. To the downside, a failure to break the 0.6500 barrier could produce fresh selling pressure, with the pair likely to retest support around the 0.6450 area. A better-than-expected US jobs report or more hawkish Fed commentary might revive demand for the US Dollar, taking AUD/USD down. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair might drift towards 0.6400, particularly if Australian trade data disappoints or global risk sentiment deteriorates.

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