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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Fails to Maintain Gains as Subdued Trading and US-China Trade Tensions Mount

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  • April 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) was subdued on Friday despite positive signals from US President Donald Trump about the possibility of reaching a trade agreement with China that would be sealed within the next three to four weeks. While the AUD/USD currency pair had been on a seven-day winning streak, trading volumes were subdued on account of the Good Friday holiday, and worries regarding the economic effects of tariffs on the US kept the US Dollar under pressure. Even these events notwithstanding, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to future interest rate moves and mixed economic data, such as a marginal increase in Australia’s unemployment rate, dented the AUD’s performance. The duo is trading close to the psychological 0.6400 mark, as market players anxiously await developments in further trade talks and signs of global economics. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players will keenly watch any advancement in the US-China trade talks, especially if a trade pact in the coming three to four weeks is imminent, as it would have a bearing on the AUD, given Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China. •  US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and labor market indicators, such as jobless claims, will be instrumental in determining the direction of the US Dollar. Better-than-anticipated data might favor the USD, which may cap AUD gains. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative stance towards interest rate actions and its evaluation of economic uncertainties will be instrumental for AUD movements. The rate of future rate cuts, if any, and their size might affect investor attitudes towards the currency. • Being Australia’s biggest trading partner, China’s economic performance—e.g., GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales—will keep influencing the AUD, especially with the recent optimistic growth in China’s economy surpassing expectations. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was downbeat on Friday despite encouraging news from US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of a trade agreement with China within the next few weeks. Trading was generally subdued on account of the Good Friday holiday, with market players monitoring the on-going US-China trade talks and their possible influence on the global economy. Though the AUD had been on a seven-day rising streak, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious approach to interest rate hikes and mixed economic indicators, such as a marginal increase in unemployment, kept its performance subdued. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around the psychological level of 0.6400, and the direction is still unclear as market participants wait for further news in both international trade negotiations and local economic indicators. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was subdued despite hope from US-China trade negotiations, with market activity slowed down by the Good Friday holiday. The AUD/USD currency pair fluctuates around the 0.6400 level, confronted by conflicting economic indicators and ambiguity both from world trade negotiations and local statistics. •  The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained sedate despite encouraging news from US President Donald Trump on US-China trade negotiations. • The trading activity was muted by the Good Friday holiday, diminishing volatility in the markets. • Trump remained hopeful that the United States and China could reach a trade agreement within three to four weeks, something that could impact the AUD. • The US Dollar (USD) was weakening with fears over the economic effects of tariffs and inflation risks. • The latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia reflected continued uncertainty regarding interest rate changes in the future. • The unemployment rate of Australia increased marginally to 4.1%, while employment change was below expectations, which further created uncertainty regarding the AUD. • The AUD/USD currency pair is around 0.6400, with important resistance at 0.6408 and support at 0.6311, reflecting likely price action. The Australian Dollar (AUD) registered minimal movement despite a positive comment by US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of a trade agreement with China. Trump was optimistic that a trade deal would be reached within the next three to four weeks, which increased expectations of a positive effect on global trade. Nevertheless, market activity was quiet because of the Good Friday holiday, which decreased trading volumes and volatility. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Against these events, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopted a prudent view regarding the nation’s economic scenario. Although recent economic statistics reported varied results, including a modest rise in the jobless rate and less-than-anticipated change in employment, the RBA reiterated uncertainty over upcoming interest rate decisions. Consequently, the performance of the AUD continued to come under stress, as traders keenly observed global trade talks along with domestic economic readings. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar (AUD) against the United States Dollar (USD) is exhibiting a bullish inclination, with the AUD/USD pair trading above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above the neutral 50 level. These signals indicate positive short-term upward momentum. Yet, the pair is confronted with crucial resistance around the psychological 0.6400 level, with additional hurdles at the four-month high of 0.6408. On the negative side, the nine-day EMA at 0.6311 and the 50-day EMA at about 0.6283 serve as immediate support levels, which may assist the pair in holding its present range unless there is a major break below these levels, which may indicate a change in market sentiment. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) may experience upward momentum if US-China trade negotiations move in a positive direction. Any major breakthrough in the trade deal, as suggested by US President Trump, would be a positive boost for global sentiment and Australia’s economy, given its robust trade relationship with China. Also, if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delays rate cuts, it would bring some stability to the AUD. Better-than-expected economic reports in Australia, like firm employment numbers or a decrease in the rate of unemployment, may also continue to boost the currency’s potential for gains. Downside threats to AUD come from overall global uncertainties, especially if US-China trade talks breakdown or do not yield an agreement. Deteriorating US Dollar, as a result of persistent inflation and economic issues, could

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Slumps Close to 0.6300 in Face of Growing Risk Aversion and US Tariff Fears

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  • March 21, 2025
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The AUD/USD has fallen towards the 0.6300 level as risk aversion increases following increased concerns regarding US tariff policy, increasing the demand for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. The Australian Dollar is still on the back foot due to soft domestic jobs data, which is making traders revalue the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy perspective. As US bond yields fall as investors flock to Treasuries for safety, Fed Chair Jerome Powell conceded the difficulty in assessing the wider inflationary effects of tariffs even as he minimized their near-term impact. Cautious market sentiment prevails as economic uncertainties and changing central bank expectations remain at the helm of currency fluctuations. KEY LOOKOUTS • Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar could continue to weigh on AUD/USD amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. • Market players closely monitor RBA’s policy, with lower jobs data fuelling speculation over possible rate reductions in the months ahead. • Future US releases of data, particularly inflation and employment, will be pivotal to influencing Fed policy expectations and USD direction. • Any intensification of US tariff news or overall risk sentiment would further fuel volatility and influence AUD/USD direction. The AUD/USD is still closely watched as several factors have been guiding its path. Increasing US Dollar demand amid surging risks aversion and US tariff policy concerns continues to press the key Australia Dollar. Meanwhile, weak Australian labor market statistics have prompted traders to re-evaluate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy tone, raising speculation of future rate cuts. Market players are also eyeing future US economic data, which might further affect Federal Reserve expectations and currency fluctuations. Changes in global sentiment or intensification of tensions relating to trade might contribute to volatility in the pair. AUD/USD remains around 0.6300 due to safe-haven demand pushing the US Dollar higher in light of increasing US tariff tensions. Downbeat Australian jobs data adds to the pressure, stoking speculation regarding future RBA rate cuts. Markets now look for major US economic indicators for guidance. • AUD/USD is trading around 0.6300, pressured by increasing risk aversion and increased US Dollar demand. • Safe-haven flows support USD, fueled by US tariff policy concerns and worldwide economic uncertainty. • US bond yields fall as investors turn to Treasuries for safety amid market and geopolitical uncertainty. • Fed Chair Powell minimizes inflation effect of tariffs, but admits difficulty in measuring broader economic impacts. • US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K, narrowly missing forecasts and contributing to risk-averse market sentiment. • Australian Dollar weakens after disappointing jobs data raise the alarm over the health of the labor market. • RBA policy outlook questioned, with markets speculating over future rate cuts despite the central bank’s conservatism. The Australian Dollar is facing pressure as global market sentiment shifts towards caution with increasing worries over US trade policies. Investors are now betting on the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency as anxiety rises about future economic shocks resulting from new tariffs from the US. This greater risk-aversion is fuelling currency market direction, and market participants watch closely for events in geopolitics and policy communications by large economies. Financial markets are more in defensive mood today, propelling demand towards defensive assets and impacting currency prices internationally. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To this conservative mood comes the additional news of weaker-than-forecast employment figures from Australia. The unemployment rate having held steady, the fall in overall employment created renewed doubts about the vigor of the nation’s labor market. Consequently, market players are reviewing again the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path and more speculation about additional scope for cutting interest rates. Yet, the central bank has been cautious in tone, hinting at a cautious and data-driven policy in the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is still under sustained bearish pressure, trading around the important psychological support level of 0.6300. The pair still trades below important moving averages, showing a consistent downtrend. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicate a bearish bias, but not yet oversold, with scope for further decline. Any decisive break below 0.6300 could take the pair deeper into support levels, while any recovery attempt could be resisted around the 0.6350–0.6380 area. Traders are likely to observe these levels closely for possible breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST If sentiment in the market picks up and risk appetite comes back, AUD/USD may recover modestly. A recovery in global equities or a relief on US tariff concerns might dampen the safe-haven bid for the US Dollar, providing some relief to the Australian Dollar. Any surprise upside in Australian economic data or a more dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could also induce a short-term rebound. In this case, the duo might try to retest resistance levels of 0.6350 and possibly 0.6380 if bullish sentiment gathers pace. On the bearish side, ongoing risk aversion and lingering worries about global trade tensions might keep AUD/USD under selling pressure. A strong US Dollar, supported by safe-haven flows and robust US economic data, might push the pair below the pivotal 0.6300 level. If this support is convincingly violated, subsequent falls toward 0.6250 or even 0.6200 cannot be discounted. Further, any subsequent indications of weakness in the labor market of Australia or dovish rhetoric from the RBA would bolster the bearish outlook for the Australian Dollar in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure: Soft Economic Data and Trade Tensions Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • February 27, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is under pressure today due to weak economic data, increasing US-China trade tensions, and a robust US Dollar. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly, which caused concerns regarding economic growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be guarded on rate cuts in the future. Global trade tensions, such as new US tariffs and China restrictions, provide additional downside risks to the AUD. Technicals are bearish and point to 0.6300 as the key support. But a change in market mood or weaker US economic data might prompt a short-term recovery. Traders will watch closely for economic releases and policy announcements for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The surprise 0.2% decline in Private Capital Expenditure and soft CPI readings add to doubts over the economic resilience and growth forecasts of Australia. • The USD remains on the rise amidst risk-off sentiment, fueled by robust economic performance, trade policy changes, and increasingly hawkish Fed tone. • Rising US-China tensions surrounding trade, tariff escalations, and heightened chip export restraints may additionally put more pressure on the Australian Dollar given the dependence of Australian trade on China. • AUD/USD retests key support at 0.6300. A failure can see it test 0.6087, whereas for recovery, it needs to breach resistance at 0.6329. The Australian Dollar remains pressured by dovish domestic economic indicators and a worsening US-China trade tensions risk souring sentiment in the markets. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure decreased unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, disappointing expectations of an 0.8% gain, while also failing to contain consumer inflation expectations. At the same time, the US Dollar keeps rising under risk-off sentiment, supported by economic strength and hardening trade measures in the Trump administration. As the AUD/USD currency pair is about 0.6300 support level, additional downside risks arise should trade war tensions escalate or risk mood turn negative. Traders look ahead to future economic releases and policy news for added guidance. The Australian Dollar depreciates as weak economic news and growing US-China trade tensions bear down on mood. The AUD/USD currency pair remains close to 0.6300 support, subject to downside pressures with a firm US Dollar. Market players watch for future policy changes and global economic trends for further guidance. • Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q4 2024, marking below-forecast 0.8% growth, reflecting economic slowdown fears. • The USD is still strong as risk-off conditions prevail, fueled by a robust economy, hawkish Fed stance, and trade policy changes. • Heightened US-China trade tensions, such as more stringent tariff policy and the export restriction of chips, elevate uncertainty over the Australian Dollar. • The RBA recently slashed interest rates to 4.10% but is wary of further easing, with an eye on inflation and labor markets. • Being Australia’s top trading partner, any China slowdown or policy change, including monetary measures by PBOC, would impact the AUD. • AUD/USD is probing support at pivotal 0.6300, with a possibility of falling to 0.6087 if bearish pressure continues, while resistance is at 0.6329. • Risk aversion, geopolitical factors, and global economic trends will be key factors influencing AUD/USD’s short-term direction. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure as weak economic reports and rising trade tensions in the market generate uncertainty. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, below forecasts, sending warning signs of weakening business spending. Furthermore, inflation reports were not up to expectations, displaying lingering economic woes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just lowered interest rates to 4.10% but is still wary of future monetary policy actions. RBA officials have noted that although inflationary pressures will ease, a robust labor market might sustain price growth, leaving future rate cuts in doubt. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Global trade dynamics also contribute to the Australian Dollar’s woes, especially escalating tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration’s strategy to impose tariffs and limit chip exports to China may affect the economy of Australia because it has a robust trading relationship with China. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is actively pumping liquidity into the financial system, which can have an effect on market stability. With the changing global economic landscape, investors are keeping a close eye on how trade policies and central bank actions influence the prospects of the Australian economy and its currency. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is presently under immense bear pressure, with the price fluctuating around the psychological support of 0.6300. The pair is still below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which is a sign of diminishing short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming the bearish perspective. Further breakdown below 0.6300 would take the pair to lower support levels, while recovery would need a strong break above the 14-day EMA at 0.6323 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6329 to resume bullish momentum. The traders will keenly watch these levels for trend reversals in the next few sessions. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains under downside pressure with weak domestic economic statistics and external trade uncertainty bearing down on sentiment. If bearish pressures continue, AUD/USD may drop below the important 0.6300 support level with potential testing of lower levels around 0.6200 or even 0.6087 in the short term. Increased global trade deterioration, especially escalating US-China tensions, will put additional pressure on the currency. Furthermore, market unease regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to monetary easing could restrain investor sentiment, further contributing to the bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment turns optimistic, AUD/USD might experience a short-term bounce, especially if risk appetite picks up or US economic news disappoints, causing a weaker US Dollar. A breakout above near-term resistance levels of 0.6323 (14-day EMA) and 0.6329 (nine-day EMA) would indicate a possible recovery. If the bullish momentum picks up, the pair would try to recapture the recent high of 0.6408. But continued upside action will heavily rely on the improvement in Australian economic data

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises on China Stimulus and Fed Rate Cut Expectations as US Dollar Weakens

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  • February 24, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is gaining strength against a weakening US Dollar as a combination of global and domestic factors alters market sentiment. A strong Chinese government policy announcement for 2025, with plans for ambitious rural reforms and detailed rural revitalization plans, has lifted confidence in Australia, as China is its major trading partner. This is compounded by news of government-sponsored developers bidding up land prices in China, a sign of renewed economic activity in the region. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent reduction of the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points—the first in four years—has aided the AUD’s rebound, while Governor Michele Bullock kept inflation pressures and the direction of future rate cuts firmly in check. KEY LOOKOUTS • Watch for China’s future policy cues and rural reform implementation, as successful implementation might continue to fuel land acquisitions and raise the AUD vs. the USD. • US economic data such as PMI readings and unemployment claims remain major drivers of the USD; substantial changes might redefine the AUD/USD path. • Watch the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy cues and possible interest rate movements, as additional loosening can fuel domestic growth and support the AUD’s bullish trend. The Australian Dollar has registered a strong bounce on hopes about China’s 2025 policy statement, which features intentions on rural reforms and a revival of the beleaguered real estate market. On the other hand, the US Dollar has come under pressure in the wake of a string of disappointing economic data points, ranging from soft PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, further fueled by policy actions from President Trump to curb Chinese investments in strategic areas. Overall, the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair is still positive, with the currency trading inside an uptrending channel and receiving support close to major moving averages, suggesting potentially a prolonged bout of strength for the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar is strengthening against a weakening US Dollar, supported by China’s strong policy announcement for 2025 of rural reforms and a rejuvenated property market, while the US is hit by weak economic data and conflicting PMI readings. • China’s 2025 policy announcement outlining rural reforms and property market stimulus boosts Australian optimism, potentially strengthening the AUD due to profound bilateral trade links. • President Trump’s order to cap Chinese investments in major U.S. industries has introduced uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and further weakening USD performance. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point rate reduction—the first in four years—indicates loosening policy, but officials warn that additional cuts are uncertain amidst inflation pressures. • Downbeat U.S. economic reports, such as mixed PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, continue to weigh on the USD, affecting the overall AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. • Federal Reserve officials say that even with strong job growth, ongoing inflation worries could require additional policy action, which could see further rate cuts this year. • Escalating U.S. trade tensions, represented by tariffs against pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and auto parts, may interfere with global supply chains and continue affecting currency fluctuations. • AUD/USD pair in an uptrending channel, enjoys robust support levels close to the key exponential moving averages and resistance at psychological zones. The Australian Dollar is being supported by upbeat economic indications flowing from China’s forward-looking policy statement in 2025. The announcement, which outlines expansive rural reforms and steps to revive the property sector, has increased confidence in Australia markets due to its deep trade relationship with China. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent move to loosen monetary policy via a rate cut indicates attempts to stimulate domestic growth, further supporting the currency. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is under pressure in the context of muted economic data and conservative policy expectations. Weak economic data coupled with fresh curbs on Chinese investments have added to uncertainty, casting a shadow over the US economic upturn. These events highlight the persistent issues in the US economy, leading market participants to reassess future growth opportunities and the wider implications for global trade patterns. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS          AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6370 within an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, suggesting sustained strength, while immediate support levels are evident at the nine-day and 14-day EMAs around 0.6347 and 0.6330, respectively. This is complemented by the lower channel boundary close to 0.6320, while resistance appears around the psychological 0.6400 level and the channel’s top at close to 0.6430, highlighting levels of importance to observe in case of possible trend resumption. FORECAST In the future, the Australian Dollar may continue to gain if favorable developments continue. Favorable policy actions from China to revive its rural and property markets may further fuel trade optimism between the two countries. Moreover, accommodative domestic monetary policies in Australia may further support investor confidence and attract capital inflows, setting the stage for a continued upward trend in the AUD. On the other hand, the AUD could be challenged if negative global or domestic conditions arise. Increased uncertainty from worsening US economic numbers or growing trade tensions would modify market sentiment and lead to a conservative reassessment of risk. Additionally, any change from expected policy developments in China or changes in Australia’s fiscal position could lead to a reversal of the currency’s recent advances, underlining the need to closely watch broader economic signs.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Struggles Below 0.6300: Market Uncertainty and Technical Signals Shape the Outlook

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  • February 11, 2025
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The AUD/USD pair continues trading in a tight range below the 0.6300 mark, unable to gain upward momentum amid expectations for an RBA rate cut and escalating US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, bolstered by fears that potential Trump tariffs could be inflationary and keep the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, weighs on the Australian Dollar. The advance, however, faces technical issues, with the prices finding support above the 50-day SMA and oscillators turning positive. However, a decisive break above 0.6300 would confirm a bullish reversal, targeting 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. On the contrary, a break and failure to sustain support at 0.6235 might trigger further decline to 0.6140, 0.6085, and eventually to the psychological level of 0.6000, hence sustaining the downtrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will then gain a lot of buying pressure above 0.6300 and drive up towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455, as the bullish breakout takes place. • The on-going prospects of an RBA rate cut next week still weigh down the Aussie even when technical levels were widely signaling a recovery. • Geopolitical uncertainty and increased trade war tensions between the U.S. and China are the primary headwinds for AUD, stopping it from moving higher. • A stronger US Dollar, coupled with potential Trump tariffs and inflation concerns, will keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, thus further capping upside in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD continues trading in a tight range below 0.6300 as a variety of factors continue to affect the movement. Expectations for a RBA rate cut, as well as US-China trade tensions, are weighing on the Australian Dollar, thus capping its upside potential. Meanwhile, a stronger USD, which is driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on inflation, is keeping the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance intact. From a technical perspective, a decisive break above 0.6300 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the pair towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. But if support at 0.6235 fails to hold, then the AUD/USD may be seen further lower towards 0.6140, 0.6085, and the psychological 0.6000 level, thus continuing the bearish trend. The AUD/USD pair is struggling below 0.6300, driven down by RBA rate cut bets, US-China trade tensions, and a stronger USD. A break above 0.6300 will reportedly indicate recovery to 0.6365 and 0.6400, while a failure to hold 0.6235 support will push it down to 0.6140 and 0.6000. • The pair remains stuck in a tight trading range and struggles to pick up pace due to its uncertain economic and geopolitical background. • It is expected to continue hammering and attracting down the Australian Dollar amid speculations of an upcoming RBA rate cut. • The Aussie is under stress as trade tensions continue to hot up between the US and China, not allowing it to break out into key resistance levels. • Better still, the USD has firmed further due to the expectation that potential Trump tariffs may boost inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. • Additional gains above 0.6300 are required to confirm upward momentum; if so, targets are at 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. •  Further weakness towards 0.6140 and then down to 0.6085 and then 0.6000 is possible if AUD/USD does not hold onto any strength above 0.6235. • The 50-day SMA and improving oscillators suggest a possible bullish reversal, but confirmation is needed above 0.6300. The AUD/USD pair remains trapped below the 0.6300 mark, struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors. RBA rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Australian Dollar, as investors anticipate a potential policy easing next week. Furthermore, rising US-China trade tensions remain a significant headwind and keep the Aussie under pressure. In addition, a stronger US Dollar, due to the belief that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could push inflation and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, limits further upside for AUD/USD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a very tight range, with resistance near 0.6300 as investors weigh the impact of RBA rate cut speculation and US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, adds further pressure on the Aussie, limiting any meaningful upside. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50-day SMA. This means it has a chance of breaking out on the upside if it clears 0.6300. The targets for this are at 0.6365 and 0.6400. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is an indication that momentum may be changing. The oscillators on the daily chart are showing positive traction. The pair might see a bullish breakout if it sustains above the 0.6300 resistance level. A successful breach of this key level might send the pair toward 0.6365, 0.6400, and the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Failure to break higher may invite renewed selling pressure, with 0.6235 acting as immediate support. A drop below this level will speed up the downtrend to 0.6140, 0.6085 and the psychological mark of 0.6000. Traders should be focusing on these important levels for the confirmation of a major price movement. FORECAST AUD/USD pair might break out positively if it succeeds in staying above the resistance point of 0.6300. A decisive break below this important level would confirm a bullish reversal, with possible targets at 0.6365 and 0.6400, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Technical indicators, including oscillators gaining positive momentum, suggest that buying pressure could increase if the pair remains above its 50-day SMA. Any positive risk-aversion environment or easing US-China trade tension would further increase the Aussie price and push the pair to much higher levels. AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.6300, it can attract fresh sellings, pulling the pair south. The short-term support now lies at 0.6235. Break below this, and the downtrend could proceed towards 0.6140 and 0.6085. A stronger US Dollar, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and potential Trump tariffs, may continue to cap the Aussie’s gains. Additionally, growing concerns over an RBA rate cut could

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