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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Slumps Close to 0.6300 in Face of Growing Risk Aversion and US Tariff Fears

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  • March 21, 2025
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The AUD/USD has fallen towards the 0.6300 level as risk aversion increases following increased concerns regarding US tariff policy, increasing the demand for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. The Australian Dollar is still on the back foot due to soft domestic jobs data, which is making traders revalue the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy perspective. As US bond yields fall as investors flock to Treasuries for safety, Fed Chair Jerome Powell conceded the difficulty in assessing the wider inflationary effects of tariffs even as he minimized their near-term impact. Cautious market sentiment prevails as economic uncertainties and changing central bank expectations remain at the helm of currency fluctuations. KEY LOOKOUTS • Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar could continue to weigh on AUD/USD amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. • Market players closely monitor RBA’s policy, with lower jobs data fuelling speculation over possible rate reductions in the months ahead. • Future US releases of data, particularly inflation and employment, will be pivotal to influencing Fed policy expectations and USD direction. • Any intensification of US tariff news or overall risk sentiment would further fuel volatility and influence AUD/USD direction. The AUD/USD is still closely watched as several factors have been guiding its path. Increasing US Dollar demand amid surging risks aversion and US tariff policy concerns continues to press the key Australia Dollar. Meanwhile, weak Australian labor market statistics have prompted traders to re-evaluate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy tone, raising speculation of future rate cuts. Market players are also eyeing future US economic data, which might further affect Federal Reserve expectations and currency fluctuations. Changes in global sentiment or intensification of tensions relating to trade might contribute to volatility in the pair. AUD/USD remains around 0.6300 due to safe-haven demand pushing the US Dollar higher in light of increasing US tariff tensions. Downbeat Australian jobs data adds to the pressure, stoking speculation regarding future RBA rate cuts. Markets now look for major US economic indicators for guidance. • AUD/USD is trading around 0.6300, pressured by increasing risk aversion and increased US Dollar demand. • Safe-haven flows support USD, fueled by US tariff policy concerns and worldwide economic uncertainty. • US bond yields fall as investors turn to Treasuries for safety amid market and geopolitical uncertainty. • Fed Chair Powell minimizes inflation effect of tariffs, but admits difficulty in measuring broader economic impacts. • US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K, narrowly missing forecasts and contributing to risk-averse market sentiment. • Australian Dollar weakens after disappointing jobs data raise the alarm over the health of the labor market. • RBA policy outlook questioned, with markets speculating over future rate cuts despite the central bank’s conservatism. The Australian Dollar is facing pressure as global market sentiment shifts towards caution with increasing worries over US trade policies. Investors are now betting on the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency as anxiety rises about future economic shocks resulting from new tariffs from the US. This greater risk-aversion is fuelling currency market direction, and market participants watch closely for events in geopolitics and policy communications by large economies. Financial markets are more in defensive mood today, propelling demand towards defensive assets and impacting currency prices internationally. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To this conservative mood comes the additional news of weaker-than-forecast employment figures from Australia. The unemployment rate having held steady, the fall in overall employment created renewed doubts about the vigor of the nation’s labor market. Consequently, market players are reviewing again the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path and more speculation about additional scope for cutting interest rates. Yet, the central bank has been cautious in tone, hinting at a cautious and data-driven policy in the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is still under sustained bearish pressure, trading around the important psychological support level of 0.6300. The pair still trades below important moving averages, showing a consistent downtrend. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicate a bearish bias, but not yet oversold, with scope for further decline. Any decisive break below 0.6300 could take the pair deeper into support levels, while any recovery attempt could be resisted around the 0.6350–0.6380 area. Traders are likely to observe these levels closely for possible breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST If sentiment in the market picks up and risk appetite comes back, AUD/USD may recover modestly. A recovery in global equities or a relief on US tariff concerns might dampen the safe-haven bid for the US Dollar, providing some relief to the Australian Dollar. Any surprise upside in Australian economic data or a more dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could also induce a short-term rebound. In this case, the duo might try to retest resistance levels of 0.6350 and possibly 0.6380 if bullish sentiment gathers pace. On the bearish side, ongoing risk aversion and lingering worries about global trade tensions might keep AUD/USD under selling pressure. A strong US Dollar, supported by safe-haven flows and robust US economic data, might push the pair below the pivotal 0.6300 level. If this support is convincingly violated, subsequent falls toward 0.6250 or even 0.6200 cannot be discounted. Further, any subsequent indications of weakness in the labor market of Australia or dovish rhetoric from the RBA would bolster the bearish outlook for the Australian Dollar in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falters as US Dollar Strength and Rising Global Tensions Intensify

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  • March 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to struggle as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on the back of rising geopolitical tensions and poor US economic data. Heightened fears of Middle East conflicts, possible trade disruptions, and aggressive US tariff policies by President Donald Trump have shaken global markets, lifting safe-haven demand for the USD. While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains optimistic about cuts in interest rates in the future, providing some boost to the AUD, stimulus measures by China provide some cushioning for the Aussie Dollar. Although trade anxieties on the horizon and softer US retail data remain dampeners for investor moods. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing Middle East tensions and assertive US policy measures continue to drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reluctance to cut interest rates could give the AUD temporary support, depending on inflation patterns and world economic conditions. • Optimism from China’s consumption-stimulating measures could be a boon to the AUD, considering Australia’s robust trade relations with China. • The AUD/USD currency pair can test the crucial resistance level of 0.6408. A break can reach 0.6480, and strong support is found at 0.6330 and 0.6311. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is under a challenging trading scenario with increasing geopolitical tensions and the US Dollar (USD) strengthening, bolstered by safe-haven demand and threats of tariffs from the Trump administration. Though soft US economic data, including disappointing retail sales and weakening consumer sentiment, put a cloud of uncertainty over the outlook for the USD, the AUD is under pressure from worries of global trade dislocation and Australia’s exposure to commodity markets. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s prudent stance on cutting interest rates and China’s recent stimulus package targeting consumption provide some glimmer of support for the Aussie. Technical levels indicate a possible bullish shift in the AUD/USD, but future upside will rely on global risk appetite and core economic events ahead. The Australian Dollar is still pressured as the US Dollar consolidates its gains on renewed geopolitical tension and uncertainty about trade. Yet, prudent RBA policy and China’s economic stimulus offer support. Market attention now turns to significant technical levels and prospective economic indicators. • The Australian Dollar weakens as geopolitical tensions drive demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. • RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter gives a nod towards cautiousness with future rate cuts. • Dismal US Retail Sales and weaker consumer sentiment place pressure on the USD outlook. • US President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs and no exemption for steel and aluminum affect Australia’s trade outlook. • China’s specific action plan to stimulate consumption provides regional market assistance, supporting the Aussie Dollar. • AUD/USD is traded around 0.6380, with possibilities to test the resistance at 0.6408 and trend towards 0.6480. • The investors are careful as the ongoing global economic and political events are still driving currencies. The Australian Dollar is under pressure as geopolitical tensions rise, especially in the Middle East, where the US has reasserted its military presence. The increased global uncertainty has fueled demand for the US Dollar, which is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of crisis. Concurrently, economic issues in the US, including soft retail sales and a precipitous decline in consumer sentiment, have created an additional layer of sophistication in overall market sentiment. Though these contribute to market volatility, the general global backdrop still plays a role in currency movements, including the AUD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a conservative view regarding future interest rate reductions, hinting at a more prudent strategy than what the markets had predicted. This occurs as Australia’s trade environment is also under threat from the US administration’s refusal to remove tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum exports. But recent Chinese efforts to trigger its economy—like increasing household consumption and stabilizing markets—provide a glimmer of hope for Australia’s economy, considering China’s vital position as an important trading partner. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair still has a bullish tilt as it still moves in an upward channel in the daily chart. The currency pair is presently trading close to 0.6380, and the impetus is buoyed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) being sustained above the 50 level, which shows strength on the buy side. In case the pair continues to go higher, it could try and test the new high close to 0.6408. However, levels of support close to 0.6330 and 0.6311 are pivotal; a break below these might spell a change in trend and usher in more downward pressure. FORECAST If sentiment in the market is bullish and geopolitical tensions between nations become less, the Australian Dollar may recover strength, provided that China’s economic stimulus initiatives begin to yield more positive results. Increased stability globally, along with a prudent but consistent monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia, could be a basis for AUD recovery. Moreover, if future US economic data continues to underperform, it may devalue the US Dollar and lend support to a bullish trend in the AUD/USD currency pair. Strong commodity demand and positive risk appetite can further drive the Aussie higher in the short term. On the bearish side, the Australian Dollar is exposed to sustained geopolitical tensions and escalating global uncertainties, especially with regards to US trade policies and military aggressions. Continued resilience of the US Dollar, fueled by safe-haven flows and possible policy changes by the Federal Reserve, may put further pressure on the AUD. Additionally, if the recovery in China slows down or Australia continues to encounter more trade-related issues, the AUD might not be able to gain strength, making a decline in the AUD/USD pair more likely. 

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falls in Face of Trade Tensions and China Deflation Fears Amid Consumer Confidence Bounce

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Australian Dollar continues to fall against the US Dollar, burdened by rising global trade tensions and worsening deflationary fears in China—Australia’s biggest trading partner. Even with a big bounce in Westpac Consumer Confidence to a three-year high, fueled by recent interest rate reductions and softening living expenses, the AUD can’t find its footing. Stagnated US-China trade talks, counter-tariffs, and waning Chinese demand have weighed on sentiment, as weaker US employment data and fears of recession further clouded the wider picture. With investors expecting crucial inflation reads and other direction from central banks, the AUD/USD continues to be battered, trading around multi-week lows. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch intently for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after robust numbers trimmed expectations of further rate easing. • Continuing deadlock in US-China trade negotiations and fresh retaliatory tariffs continue to influence Australian market sentiment and global risk appetite. • Accelerating deflationary pressure in China is a significant threat to Australia’s export-oriented economy, particularly in the context of slowing consumer demand after Spring Festival. • Market participants are waiting for US inflation figures, which would potentially affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and propel short-term AUD/USD movements. The Australian Dollar continues to come under pressure as rising global trade tensions and China’s worsening deflation feed fears about Australia’s economic prospects. Amid a significant rise in consumer sentiment—reflected in Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index hitting a three-year high—the external headwinds continue to dominate local optimism. The US-China trade impasse extended over time, joined by retaliatory tariffs and waning demand in China, has quashed investor sentiment and risk appetite. At the same time, technical indicators point to bearish momentum for AUD/USD, with investors looking for significant US inflation data and further information about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy direction. The Australian Dollar remains under pressure even after consumer confidence rose, as global trade tensions and deflation concerns in China act as a dampener for sentiment. US-China negotiations’ stalemate and declining risk appetite keep the AUD/USD pair around multi-week lows. • Australian Dollar continues to be under pressure as a result of escalating global trade tensions and China’s increasing deflation worries. • Westpac Consumer Confidence jumped 4% in March, a three-year high, driven by interest rate reductions and softening living expenses. • US-China trade talks continue to be at an impasse, with retaliatory tariffs further weighing on market sentiment and affecting Australia’s export-oriented economy. • Deflation in China indicates poor domestic demand, which threatens Australian exports and general economic prospects. • Uncertainty around the US economy continues, with poor jobs numbers and recession worries driving global currency flows. • RBA remains cautious in its policy, and recent economic news has lowered the expectation of further rate cuts. • Market players wait for the next US inflation figures, which may influence future Federal Reserve policies and affect the AUD/USD exchange rate. The Australian Dollar is strained as global trade tensions escalate and economic uncertainty rises, driven particularly by increasing deflation fears in China—Australia’s biggest trading partner. While consumer sentiment improved significantly, with Westpac Consumer Confidence reaching a three-year high, overall market sentiment remains cautious. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent rate cut and alleviation of cost-of-living pressures have improved domestic optimism, but external threats continue to loom over local economic gains. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Impeded US-China trade talks and retaliatory tariffs are driving fears of a weakening global demand, which directly affects Australia’s trade-dependent economy. In the background, political events and soft US job data are influencing expectations for future economic policy. As investors continue to keep an eye on future inflation data and central bank cues, the Australian Dollar’s performance will tend to be guided by these changing global dynamics. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar is exhibiting signs of ongoing weakness versus the US Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair trading around significant support levels. The pair has fallen below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which signals bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 level, indicating mounting selling pressure. If the downtrend continues, the pair would test lower support levels, while recovery would demand a persistent break above the near-term resistance zones to turn sentiment again in the bullish direction. FORECAST In the event that global sentiment is improving and US-China trade tensions abate, the Australian Dollar would recover, particularly if China’s economic data begin to stabilize. A flip in commodity demand to the positive or an unexpected pick-up in China’s inflation rates can drive Australia’s export economy, potentially pushing the AUD higher. Furthermore, if the Reserve Bank of Australia continues its dovish but accommodative policy without additional rate cuts, this should reinforce investor confidence and support a modest recovery in the currency. But the risks on the downside are also considerable. Ongoing trade uncertainty, ongoing deflationary pressures in China, or additional escalation in global tariff tensions would bear down on the Australian Dollar. If future US inflation numbers bolster the argument for the Federal Reserve to keep or postpone rate cuts, the US Dollar could gain further traction, putting further pressure on the AUD. In addition, any fresh weakness in Australian economic data or a turn towards more dovish RBA commentary may speed the currency’s decline in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

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  • March 7, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens as traders exercise caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with market sentiment remaining subdued. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and a rising trade surplus, AUD/USD struggles due to ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over slowing global economic momentum. While the US Dollar (USD) is stable, backed by a decline in jobless claims, but mixed employment statistics and Federal Reserve policy ambiguity keep the market nervous. Technicals show AUD/USD testing critical support levels, with a risk of downside if the pair goes below the 50-day EMA. Investors now wait for the NFP data to decide the direction of the market. KEY LOOKOUTS • February’s NFP figure, due at 160K, is something traders look forward to, as it may impact USD strength and continue to weigh on AUD/USD. • An improving trade surplus and shrinking imports influence sentiment in the markets, with Chinese economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty acting as a burden on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s position on growth and inflation is still of great importance, with possible policy change affecting AUD direction. • AUD/USD tests the 50-day EMA at 0.6309; a break below it may trigger more falls, with major support at 0.6187. The Australian Dollar continues to weaken as investors go cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is anticipated to report a rebound in job creation to 160K. While Australia’s better-than-anticipated GDP growth and growing trade surplus are not enough to overcome global trade risks and tensions with China, AUD/USD lags, with geopolitical tensions in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook remains under the spotlight, with possible changes affecting investor sentiment. Technical indicators indicate AUD/USD testing crucial support on the 50-day EMA at 0.6309, while breaking below that level could initiate further losses towards 0.6187. The Australian Dollar loses strength with investors cautious in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, influencing market sentiment. Ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions push AUD/USD despite robust Australian GDP growth. Technical support at 0.6309 continues to be important, and a breakdown beneath hints at further potential for losses. • The Australian Dollar loses ground as investors hold back in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is forecasted to record job growth at 160K. • US Dollar remains strong underpinned by diminished jobless claims, though mixed employment information contributes to market uncertainty. • An increase in China’s trade surplus and weakening imports affects global trade flows, which has an impact on AUD/USD movement. • US/China tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty, put pressure on the Australian Dollar. • Investors monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attitude toward inflation and economic growth for signs of policy changes. • AUD/USD probes important support at 0.6309 (50-day EMA), with additional downside potential if this level is broken. • The NFP release will be a strong driver for USD strength or weakness, determining the next direction for AUD/USD. The Australian Dollar continues to be under selling pressure as the market players remain cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, an important gauge of the strength of the US labor market. The market players are keeping a close eye on international trade trends, especially China’s increasing trade surplus and falling imports, which have implications for Australia’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions are still influencing market sentiment, with doubt about US trade policy and potential Chinese reaction piling onto economic worries. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stuck with its forecast for economic growth to slow down, and although Australian GDP revealed stronger-than-anticipated growth in Q4 2024, general economic uncertainties are leaving investors cautious. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, sentiment remains mixed as economic data paint a contradictory picture of growth and stability. While claims for unemployment decreased, other measures of employment, including the ADP Employment Change, fell considerably short of projections, casting doubts on the labor market’s strength. Moreover, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy change are increasing as analysts argue about whether the Fed will focus more on curbing economic momentum rather than inflation issues. The next NFP report should give more clarity, and the market sentiment as well as investor strategy in the near term would be influenced by that. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a newly established rising channel, reflecting a possible bullish inclination in spite of recent downward pressure. The pair is presently trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6309, which is an important support level and could be the next point of direction. If this level is sustained, AUD/USD might try and challenge the initial resistance at 0.6408, the three-month high on February 21. A breakdown below this support, however, may allow lower levels, with the next significant support at 0.6187, the four-week low of March 5. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, which indicates that demand continues, but market reservation in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep aggressive moves in either direction under check. FORECAST AUD/USD may witness a rise, especially if the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release is disappointing and weakens the US Dollar. A disappointing NFP print, which would be weaker than anticipated, might raise speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thus supporting risk assets such as the Australian Dollar. Moreover, any encouraging news in China’s economic policies, like additional stimulus packages or improved trade performance, might favor AUD’s rebound. If the bullish pressure intensifies, the pair could try to push above the major resistance level of 0.6408, with a subsequent move towards 0.6440 if global risk appetite continues to improve. On the other hand, AUD/USD could be prone to further losses if the US NFP report comes in better than expected, pushing the US Dollar higher. A more robust labor market report may solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on rate cuts, driving up USD demand. Moreover, persistent trade

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure: Soft Economic Data and Trade Tensions Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • February 27, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is under pressure today due to weak economic data, increasing US-China trade tensions, and a robust US Dollar. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly, which caused concerns regarding economic growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be guarded on rate cuts in the future. Global trade tensions, such as new US tariffs and China restrictions, provide additional downside risks to the AUD. Technicals are bearish and point to 0.6300 as the key support. But a change in market mood or weaker US economic data might prompt a short-term recovery. Traders will watch closely for economic releases and policy announcements for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The surprise 0.2% decline in Private Capital Expenditure and soft CPI readings add to doubts over the economic resilience and growth forecasts of Australia. • The USD remains on the rise amidst risk-off sentiment, fueled by robust economic performance, trade policy changes, and increasingly hawkish Fed tone. • Rising US-China tensions surrounding trade, tariff escalations, and heightened chip export restraints may additionally put more pressure on the Australian Dollar given the dependence of Australian trade on China. • AUD/USD retests key support at 0.6300. A failure can see it test 0.6087, whereas for recovery, it needs to breach resistance at 0.6329. The Australian Dollar remains pressured by dovish domestic economic indicators and a worsening US-China trade tensions risk souring sentiment in the markets. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure decreased unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, disappointing expectations of an 0.8% gain, while also failing to contain consumer inflation expectations. At the same time, the US Dollar keeps rising under risk-off sentiment, supported by economic strength and hardening trade measures in the Trump administration. As the AUD/USD currency pair is about 0.6300 support level, additional downside risks arise should trade war tensions escalate or risk mood turn negative. Traders look ahead to future economic releases and policy news for added guidance. The Australian Dollar depreciates as weak economic news and growing US-China trade tensions bear down on mood. The AUD/USD currency pair remains close to 0.6300 support, subject to downside pressures with a firm US Dollar. Market players watch for future policy changes and global economic trends for further guidance. • Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q4 2024, marking below-forecast 0.8% growth, reflecting economic slowdown fears. • The USD is still strong as risk-off conditions prevail, fueled by a robust economy, hawkish Fed stance, and trade policy changes. • Heightened US-China trade tensions, such as more stringent tariff policy and the export restriction of chips, elevate uncertainty over the Australian Dollar. • The RBA recently slashed interest rates to 4.10% but is wary of further easing, with an eye on inflation and labor markets. • Being Australia’s top trading partner, any China slowdown or policy change, including monetary measures by PBOC, would impact the AUD. • AUD/USD is probing support at pivotal 0.6300, with a possibility of falling to 0.6087 if bearish pressure continues, while resistance is at 0.6329. • Risk aversion, geopolitical factors, and global economic trends will be key factors influencing AUD/USD’s short-term direction. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure as weak economic reports and rising trade tensions in the market generate uncertainty. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, below forecasts, sending warning signs of weakening business spending. Furthermore, inflation reports were not up to expectations, displaying lingering economic woes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just lowered interest rates to 4.10% but is still wary of future monetary policy actions. RBA officials have noted that although inflationary pressures will ease, a robust labor market might sustain price growth, leaving future rate cuts in doubt. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Global trade dynamics also contribute to the Australian Dollar’s woes, especially escalating tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration’s strategy to impose tariffs and limit chip exports to China may affect the economy of Australia because it has a robust trading relationship with China. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is actively pumping liquidity into the financial system, which can have an effect on market stability. With the changing global economic landscape, investors are keeping a close eye on how trade policies and central bank actions influence the prospects of the Australian economy and its currency. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is presently under immense bear pressure, with the price fluctuating around the psychological support of 0.6300. The pair is still below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which is a sign of diminishing short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming the bearish perspective. Further breakdown below 0.6300 would take the pair to lower support levels, while recovery would need a strong break above the 14-day EMA at 0.6323 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6329 to resume bullish momentum. The traders will keenly watch these levels for trend reversals in the next few sessions. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains under downside pressure with weak domestic economic statistics and external trade uncertainty bearing down on sentiment. If bearish pressures continue, AUD/USD may drop below the important 0.6300 support level with potential testing of lower levels around 0.6200 or even 0.6087 in the short term. Increased global trade deterioration, especially escalating US-China tensions, will put additional pressure on the currency. Furthermore, market unease regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to monetary easing could restrain investor sentiment, further contributing to the bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment turns optimistic, AUD/USD might experience a short-term bounce, especially if risk appetite picks up or US economic news disappoints, causing a weaker US Dollar. A breakout above near-term resistance levels of 0.6323 (14-day EMA) and 0.6329 (nine-day EMA) would indicate a possible recovery. If the bullish momentum picks up, the pair would try to recapture the recent high of 0.6408. But continued upside action will heavily rely on the improvement in Australian economic data

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Remains Unchanged After RBA Rate Cut: Market Response and Future Projections

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  • February 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar has remained unchanged after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) equally expected move of reducing the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, its first rate cut in four years. Although RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the effect of high interest rates, she warned against presuming additional rate cuts. The AUD/USD currency pair was supported by a softer US Dollar, with downtrodden US retail sales and Federal Reserve officials being cautious on rate cuts. At the same time, the rise in US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, making it tough for the Australian Dollar. The market sentiment remains centered around significant support and resistance levels, with AUD/USD supporting an uptrend channel, indicating a positive bias.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Governor Michele Bullock indicated doubt regarding additional rate cuts, with future economic data being pivotal in deciding the next step by the central bank. • Fed officials emphasize caution on rate cuts with inflation worries, with US economic data being pivotal in informing future monetary policy. • Increasing US Treasury yields may make the US Dollar stronger, potentially capping AUD/USD gains despite the Australian Dollar’s strength following the RBA decision. • The duo is bullish in an uptrend channel, testing resistance at 0.6400 while important support is close to the 14-day EMA at 0.6300. Australian Dollar stability after the RBA’s rate cut confirms the market’s expectation of the move, and traders are now looking to see what future policy steps are ahead. While RBA Governor Michele Bullock hinted at indecision about further reductions, US Federal Reserve officials stuck to a wait-and-see approach, pointing to ongoing inflation threats. Increases in US Treasury yields have underpinned the US Dollar, which has made headwinds for AUD/USD even in its bullish path within an upward channel. The Australian Dollar held firm following the RBA rate cut, with investors looking to policy cues in the future. The increase in US Treasury yields, on the other hand, supported the US Dollar and proved difficult for AUD/USD. • The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first rate cut in four years. • The Australian Dollar did not react much since the rate cut decision had already been priced in by traders before the announcement. • Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that additional rate cuts are in doubt, mentioning robust employment and persistent inflation issues. • Higher US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, placing downward pressure on AUD/USD even after its post-RBA bounce. • Fed officials flashed warning signals for rate cuts, citing inflation threats and calling for greater economic clarity. • AUD/USD is still in an uptrend channel, with important resistance at 0.6400 and firm support at 0.6300. • US retail sales figures, Federal Reserve actions, and China’s economic policy are still driving Australian Dollar market sentiment. The Australian Dollar stabilized after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as anticipated cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock insisted that although high interest rates have touched the economy, it is still premature to speculate about more cuts in interest rates. The Australian “Big Four” banks of CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac also followed by cutting their lending rates promptly. The most recent inflation figures reported a deceleration in price pressures as Trimmed Mean CPI increased 0.5% last quarter, down from the anticipated 0.6%. Non with standing this, the robust labor market and conservative RBA approach mean that another round of rate cuts is not certain, keeping market participants on their toes for subsequent economic releases. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA At the same time, US Dollar found strength in increasing Treasury yields, curbing AUD/USD’s up potential. The Federal Reserve still holds back on reducing interest rates, with policymakers citing ongoing inflation threats and desiring greater certainty before altering monetary policy. The USD was dented by dismal US retail sales figures temporarily before AUD/USD could recover partially. Still, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallying and Treasury yields on the rise, the Australian Dollar has resistance around 0.6400. The pair currently is trading inside an upward trend channel, important support being in place at about 0.6300, making economic statistics in the pipeline as well as remarks by the central banks crucial to its immediate next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair trades in an uptrend channel, signifying the overall market bullish tendency in the near term. The pair also received support around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6316 and the 14-day EMA of 0.6300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the 50 mark, indicating positive momentum. The pair meets resistance on the upside around the top edge of the channel at 0.6390, with an important psychological level at 0.6400. A breach above the level would herald more gains, while a decline below the support line of approximately 0.6280 may suggest a reversal. Investors will be looking out for these key levels for indication of a trend breakdown or a breakout. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains in a bullish bias as long as it continues to trade in its rising channel, with the next resistance being at 0.6390 and the critical psychological level of 0.6400. If the pair is able to break above 0.6400, this may set further upside momentum into play, the next target being at 0.6450. Supportive reasons for the upward movement are a soft US Dollar, which could come under stress if economic indicators indicate that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy ahead of time. Also, any indication of strength in the Australian economy, especially in labor market data or inflation management, could support the AUD and bring further advances. AUD/USD has critical support at 0.6316 (nine-day EMA) and 0.6300 (14-day EMA). A breakdown below these levels may drive the pair to 0.6280, which is the lower end of the ascending channel. In case of a further increase in selling pressure, the next key support is at

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Struggles Below 0.6300: Market Uncertainty and Technical Signals Shape the Outlook

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  • February 11, 2025
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The AUD/USD pair continues trading in a tight range below the 0.6300 mark, unable to gain upward momentum amid expectations for an RBA rate cut and escalating US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, bolstered by fears that potential Trump tariffs could be inflationary and keep the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, weighs on the Australian Dollar. The advance, however, faces technical issues, with the prices finding support above the 50-day SMA and oscillators turning positive. However, a decisive break above 0.6300 would confirm a bullish reversal, targeting 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. On the contrary, a break and failure to sustain support at 0.6235 might trigger further decline to 0.6140, 0.6085, and eventually to the psychological level of 0.6000, hence sustaining the downtrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will then gain a lot of buying pressure above 0.6300 and drive up towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455, as the bullish breakout takes place. • The on-going prospects of an RBA rate cut next week still weigh down the Aussie even when technical levels were widely signaling a recovery. • Geopolitical uncertainty and increased trade war tensions between the U.S. and China are the primary headwinds for AUD, stopping it from moving higher. • A stronger US Dollar, coupled with potential Trump tariffs and inflation concerns, will keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, thus further capping upside in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD continues trading in a tight range below 0.6300 as a variety of factors continue to affect the movement. Expectations for a RBA rate cut, as well as US-China trade tensions, are weighing on the Australian Dollar, thus capping its upside potential. Meanwhile, a stronger USD, which is driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on inflation, is keeping the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance intact. From a technical perspective, a decisive break above 0.6300 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the pair towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. But if support at 0.6235 fails to hold, then the AUD/USD may be seen further lower towards 0.6140, 0.6085, and the psychological 0.6000 level, thus continuing the bearish trend. The AUD/USD pair is struggling below 0.6300, driven down by RBA rate cut bets, US-China trade tensions, and a stronger USD. A break above 0.6300 will reportedly indicate recovery to 0.6365 and 0.6400, while a failure to hold 0.6235 support will push it down to 0.6140 and 0.6000. • The pair remains stuck in a tight trading range and struggles to pick up pace due to its uncertain economic and geopolitical background. • It is expected to continue hammering and attracting down the Australian Dollar amid speculations of an upcoming RBA rate cut. • The Aussie is under stress as trade tensions continue to hot up between the US and China, not allowing it to break out into key resistance levels. • Better still, the USD has firmed further due to the expectation that potential Trump tariffs may boost inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. • Additional gains above 0.6300 are required to confirm upward momentum; if so, targets are at 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. •  Further weakness towards 0.6140 and then down to 0.6085 and then 0.6000 is possible if AUD/USD does not hold onto any strength above 0.6235. • The 50-day SMA and improving oscillators suggest a possible bullish reversal, but confirmation is needed above 0.6300. The AUD/USD pair remains trapped below the 0.6300 mark, struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors. RBA rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Australian Dollar, as investors anticipate a potential policy easing next week. Furthermore, rising US-China trade tensions remain a significant headwind and keep the Aussie under pressure. In addition, a stronger US Dollar, due to the belief that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could push inflation and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, limits further upside for AUD/USD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a very tight range, with resistance near 0.6300 as investors weigh the impact of RBA rate cut speculation and US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, adds further pressure on the Aussie, limiting any meaningful upside. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50-day SMA. This means it has a chance of breaking out on the upside if it clears 0.6300. The targets for this are at 0.6365 and 0.6400. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is an indication that momentum may be changing. The oscillators on the daily chart are showing positive traction. The pair might see a bullish breakout if it sustains above the 0.6300 resistance level. A successful breach of this key level might send the pair toward 0.6365, 0.6400, and the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Failure to break higher may invite renewed selling pressure, with 0.6235 acting as immediate support. A drop below this level will speed up the downtrend to 0.6140, 0.6085 and the psychological mark of 0.6000. Traders should be focusing on these important levels for the confirmation of a major price movement. FORECAST AUD/USD pair might break out positively if it succeeds in staying above the resistance point of 0.6300. A decisive break below this important level would confirm a bullish reversal, with possible targets at 0.6365 and 0.6400, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Technical indicators, including oscillators gaining positive momentum, suggest that buying pressure could increase if the pair remains above its 50-day SMA. Any positive risk-aversion environment or easing US-China trade tension would further increase the Aussie price and push the pair to much higher levels. AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.6300, it can attract fresh sellings, pulling the pair south. The short-term support now lies at 0.6235. Break below this, and the downtrend could proceed towards 0.6140 and 0.6085. A stronger US Dollar, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and potential Trump tariffs, may continue to cap the Aussie’s gains. Additionally, growing concerns over an RBA rate cut could

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