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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

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  • March 7, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens as traders exercise caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with market sentiment remaining subdued. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and a rising trade surplus, AUD/USD struggles due to ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over slowing global economic momentum. While the US Dollar (USD) is stable, backed by a decline in jobless claims, but mixed employment statistics and Federal Reserve policy ambiguity keep the market nervous. Technicals show AUD/USD testing critical support levels, with a risk of downside if the pair goes below the 50-day EMA. Investors now wait for the NFP data to decide the direction of the market. KEY LOOKOUTS • February’s NFP figure, due at 160K, is something traders look forward to, as it may impact USD strength and continue to weigh on AUD/USD. • An improving trade surplus and shrinking imports influence sentiment in the markets, with Chinese economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty acting as a burden on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s position on growth and inflation is still of great importance, with possible policy change affecting AUD direction. • AUD/USD tests the 50-day EMA at 0.6309; a break below it may trigger more falls, with major support at 0.6187. The Australian Dollar continues to weaken as investors go cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is anticipated to report a rebound in job creation to 160K. While Australia’s better-than-anticipated GDP growth and growing trade surplus are not enough to overcome global trade risks and tensions with China, AUD/USD lags, with geopolitical tensions in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook remains under the spotlight, with possible changes affecting investor sentiment. Technical indicators indicate AUD/USD testing crucial support on the 50-day EMA at 0.6309, while breaking below that level could initiate further losses towards 0.6187. The Australian Dollar loses strength with investors cautious in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, influencing market sentiment. Ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions push AUD/USD despite robust Australian GDP growth. Technical support at 0.6309 continues to be important, and a breakdown beneath hints at further potential for losses. • The Australian Dollar loses ground as investors hold back in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is forecasted to record job growth at 160K. • US Dollar remains strong underpinned by diminished jobless claims, though mixed employment information contributes to market uncertainty. • An increase in China’s trade surplus and weakening imports affects global trade flows, which has an impact on AUD/USD movement. • US/China tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty, put pressure on the Australian Dollar. • Investors monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attitude toward inflation and economic growth for signs of policy changes. • AUD/USD probes important support at 0.6309 (50-day EMA), with additional downside potential if this level is broken. • The NFP release will be a strong driver for USD strength or weakness, determining the next direction for AUD/USD. The Australian Dollar continues to be under selling pressure as the market players remain cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, an important gauge of the strength of the US labor market. The market players are keeping a close eye on international trade trends, especially China’s increasing trade surplus and falling imports, which have implications for Australia’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions are still influencing market sentiment, with doubt about US trade policy and potential Chinese reaction piling onto economic worries. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stuck with its forecast for economic growth to slow down, and although Australian GDP revealed stronger-than-anticipated growth in Q4 2024, general economic uncertainties are leaving investors cautious. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, sentiment remains mixed as economic data paint a contradictory picture of growth and stability. While claims for unemployment decreased, other measures of employment, including the ADP Employment Change, fell considerably short of projections, casting doubts on the labor market’s strength. Moreover, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy change are increasing as analysts argue about whether the Fed will focus more on curbing economic momentum rather than inflation issues. The next NFP report should give more clarity, and the market sentiment as well as investor strategy in the near term would be influenced by that. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a newly established rising channel, reflecting a possible bullish inclination in spite of recent downward pressure. The pair is presently trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6309, which is an important support level and could be the next point of direction. If this level is sustained, AUD/USD might try and challenge the initial resistance at 0.6408, the three-month high on February 21. A breakdown below this support, however, may allow lower levels, with the next significant support at 0.6187, the four-week low of March 5. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, which indicates that demand continues, but market reservation in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep aggressive moves in either direction under check. FORECAST AUD/USD may witness a rise, especially if the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release is disappointing and weakens the US Dollar. A disappointing NFP print, which would be weaker than anticipated, might raise speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thus supporting risk assets such as the Australian Dollar. Moreover, any encouraging news in China’s economic policies, like additional stimulus packages or improved trade performance, might favor AUD’s rebound. If the bullish pressure intensifies, the pair could try to push above the major resistance level of 0.6408, with a subsequent move towards 0.6440 if global risk appetite continues to improve. On the other hand, AUD/USD could be prone to further losses if the US NFP report comes in better than expected, pushing the US Dollar higher. A more robust labor market report may solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on rate cuts, driving up USD demand. Moreover, persistent trade

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Consolidates Strength on Economic Data and US Dollar Weakness as Major Events Loom

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  • March 5, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate its strength as the US Dollar (USD) stays weak in the face of economic uncertainty and the pending major data releases. Australia’s GDP growth beat forecasts in Q4 2024, bolstering confidence in the economy, while China’s better-than-expected Services PMI further underpinned the AUD. On the other hand, the US is grappling with rising trade policy concerns as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled potential reappraisal of Trump’s tariffs that have already influenced market mood. The AUD/USD pair is quoted around 0.6260, with technicals indicating support at the nine-day EMA and potential downward risks if major support levels are breached. While the market waits for the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, AUD’s strength is once again the currency market focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, beating forecast, affirming economic strength and backing the Australian Dollar during global uncertainty. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested President Trump is considering reversing recently raised tariffs, injecting uncertainty into the US Dollar and affecting market sentiment. • China’s Services PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.4, signaling steady economic growth and offering indirect support to the AUD through trade relations. • The upcoming ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change could influence the USD’s trajectory, shaping short-term movements in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching key economic and policy developments impacting the Australian Dollar and US Dollar. Australia’s better-than-anticipated Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% has strengthened optimism in the economy, while China’s better Services PMI indicates stable growth, indirectly benefiting the AUD. In contrast, uncertainty surrounds US trade policy, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting that President Trump might roll back recently imposed tariffs, creating market volatility. With the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change due for release, investors are weighing the possible influence on the USD, which is still under pressure. These factors combined determine the short-term direction of AUD/USD, with traders keeping an eye on technical support and resistance levels. Australia’s robust Q4 GDP expansion and China’s better Services PMI underpin the Australian Dollar, while uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy continues to keep the USD under pressure. Market participants are looking for pivotal US economic data releases, including ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, to gauge the influence on AUD/USD momentum. • Q4 2024 GDP expanded 0.6% QoQ, above market expectations and further underpinning economic resilience. • The USD is under pressure with market sentiment weighed down by economic uncertainties and trade policy issues. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted Trump might revisit recently imposed tariffs, injecting volatility in the forex market. • The sudden spike to 51.4 indicates consistent economic growth, implicitly backing the Australian Dollar. • Speculators look out for confirmation of releases of major US economic data to determine the short-term direction of the USD. • The two trade close to 0.6260, with support at 0.6271 (nine-day EMA) and possible downside towards 0.6187. • Global trade uncertainty and economic data continue to play a crucial role in driving movements of the forex market, determining AUD/USD trends. The Australian Dollar continues to be strong amidst major economic events and international trade uncertainties. Australia’s GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4 was above market forecasts, indicating the strength of the economy despite global difficulties. Also, China’s better-than-anticipated Services PMI at 51.4 indicates consistent growth, indirectly favoring the AUD because of robust trade relations between the two countries. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still evaluating economic risks, with policymakers keeping a close eye on inflation and labor market performance to inform future monetary policy. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade policy continues to be a pressing issue, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that President Trump might revisit the recently levied tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the trade actions has caused apprehension regarding their long-term effects on economic growth and global trade patterns. Additionally, the US suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, creating yet another layer of geopolitical stress for the market. While investors wait for major US economic releases, such as ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, sentiment in the market is subdued, with attention to economic stability and policy guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6260, with sideways action as the market conditions are evaluated by traders. The pair has immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6271, and a stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of about 0.6303. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, which reflects a risk-averse market sentiment with weak bullish pressure. On the negative side, the major support is at 0.6187, the four-week low seen on March 5. A fall below this level might trigger further drops to 0.6087. With future US economic data releases, AUD/USD price movements might experience greater volatility, impacting short-term technical trends. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) can witness further gains if economic data keeps supporting positive sentiment in the market. With Australia’s Q4 GDP beating forecasts and China’s economic data indicating resilience, the AUD has fundamentals to support gains. If risk sentiment remains steady globally and US economic worries continue, the AUD/USD currency pair can challenge resistance around 0.6300 in the near future. Also, any signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding holding or changing monetary policy could affect investor sentiment and add more support for the currency pair. Downside-wise, the AUD/USD pair remains susceptible to external threats from US trade policy and economic uncertainty in the world. If the US Dollar strengthens on more robust-than-anticipated economic news or a change in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the pair might experience fresh selling pressure. A breakdown below the key support of 0.6187 would initiate a more severe pullback to 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020. Also, geopolitical tensions, including the US suspension of military assistance to Ukraine, may enhance market volatility, which would trigger risk-off sentiment to weigh on the Australian Dollar.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure: Soft Economic Data and Trade Tensions Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • February 27, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is under pressure today due to weak economic data, increasing US-China trade tensions, and a robust US Dollar. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly, which caused concerns regarding economic growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be guarded on rate cuts in the future. Global trade tensions, such as new US tariffs and China restrictions, provide additional downside risks to the AUD. Technicals are bearish and point to 0.6300 as the key support. But a change in market mood or weaker US economic data might prompt a short-term recovery. Traders will watch closely for economic releases and policy announcements for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The surprise 0.2% decline in Private Capital Expenditure and soft CPI readings add to doubts over the economic resilience and growth forecasts of Australia. • The USD remains on the rise amidst risk-off sentiment, fueled by robust economic performance, trade policy changes, and increasingly hawkish Fed tone. • Rising US-China tensions surrounding trade, tariff escalations, and heightened chip export restraints may additionally put more pressure on the Australian Dollar given the dependence of Australian trade on China. • AUD/USD retests key support at 0.6300. A failure can see it test 0.6087, whereas for recovery, it needs to breach resistance at 0.6329. The Australian Dollar remains pressured by dovish domestic economic indicators and a worsening US-China trade tensions risk souring sentiment in the markets. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure decreased unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, disappointing expectations of an 0.8% gain, while also failing to contain consumer inflation expectations. At the same time, the US Dollar keeps rising under risk-off sentiment, supported by economic strength and hardening trade measures in the Trump administration. As the AUD/USD currency pair is about 0.6300 support level, additional downside risks arise should trade war tensions escalate or risk mood turn negative. Traders look ahead to future economic releases and policy news for added guidance. The Australian Dollar depreciates as weak economic news and growing US-China trade tensions bear down on mood. The AUD/USD currency pair remains close to 0.6300 support, subject to downside pressures with a firm US Dollar. Market players watch for future policy changes and global economic trends for further guidance. • Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q4 2024, marking below-forecast 0.8% growth, reflecting economic slowdown fears. • The USD is still strong as risk-off conditions prevail, fueled by a robust economy, hawkish Fed stance, and trade policy changes. • Heightened US-China trade tensions, such as more stringent tariff policy and the export restriction of chips, elevate uncertainty over the Australian Dollar. • The RBA recently slashed interest rates to 4.10% but is wary of further easing, with an eye on inflation and labor markets. • Being Australia’s top trading partner, any China slowdown or policy change, including monetary measures by PBOC, would impact the AUD. • AUD/USD is probing support at pivotal 0.6300, with a possibility of falling to 0.6087 if bearish pressure continues, while resistance is at 0.6329. • Risk aversion, geopolitical factors, and global economic trends will be key factors influencing AUD/USD’s short-term direction. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure as weak economic reports and rising trade tensions in the market generate uncertainty. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, below forecasts, sending warning signs of weakening business spending. Furthermore, inflation reports were not up to expectations, displaying lingering economic woes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just lowered interest rates to 4.10% but is still wary of future monetary policy actions. RBA officials have noted that although inflationary pressures will ease, a robust labor market might sustain price growth, leaving future rate cuts in doubt. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Global trade dynamics also contribute to the Australian Dollar’s woes, especially escalating tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration’s strategy to impose tariffs and limit chip exports to China may affect the economy of Australia because it has a robust trading relationship with China. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is actively pumping liquidity into the financial system, which can have an effect on market stability. With the changing global economic landscape, investors are keeping a close eye on how trade policies and central bank actions influence the prospects of the Australian economy and its currency. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is presently under immense bear pressure, with the price fluctuating around the psychological support of 0.6300. The pair is still below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which is a sign of diminishing short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming the bearish perspective. Further breakdown below 0.6300 would take the pair to lower support levels, while recovery would need a strong break above the 14-day EMA at 0.6323 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6329 to resume bullish momentum. The traders will keenly watch these levels for trend reversals in the next few sessions. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains under downside pressure with weak domestic economic statistics and external trade uncertainty bearing down on sentiment. If bearish pressures continue, AUD/USD may drop below the important 0.6300 support level with potential testing of lower levels around 0.6200 or even 0.6087 in the short term. Increased global trade deterioration, especially escalating US-China tensions, will put additional pressure on the currency. Furthermore, market unease regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to monetary easing could restrain investor sentiment, further contributing to the bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment turns optimistic, AUD/USD might experience a short-term bounce, especially if risk appetite picks up or US economic news disappoints, causing a weaker US Dollar. A breakout above near-term resistance levels of 0.6323 (14-day EMA) and 0.6329 (nine-day EMA) would indicate a possible recovery. If the bullish momentum picks up, the pair would try to recapture the recent high of 0.6408. But continued upside action will heavily rely on the improvement in Australian economic data

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