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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthens on Economic Data and Political Advances, US Dollar Under Pressure Before ISM Services PMI

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  • May 5, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to build strength against the US Dollar (USD) based on a mix of favorable economic data and political advances in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s success in being re-elected with a second consecutive three-year term has lifted investors’ confidence, while inflation information such as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI exhibited ongoing economic growth. Moreover, a robust trade surplus and favourable retail sales were further bolstering the AUD. While that is happening, the US Dollar has come under pressure from markets waiting for the ISM Services PMI and weighing the role of President Trump’s position regarding Federal Reserve policies and global trade. With the AUD/USD pair trading close to five-month highs, the market continues to await future economic news and geopolitical events for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next US ISM Services PMI will be an important sign of economic wellbeing and may have an effect on the US Dollar direction. The market will be looking for surprises that can move market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. • Ongoing inflation pressures in Australia, such as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI, can shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy actions in the future. Market expectations of an impending May rate cut might change pending these developments. • Continued trade negotiations and future tensions between the US and China may bear down on the Australian Dollar, considering Australia’s close trading relationships with China. Any intensification of trade tensions would be detrimental to AUD sentiment. •  Re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may have an impact on economic policy, including cost-of-living relief, support for renewable energy, and tax cuts. These actions may, however, contribute to inflationary pressure, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy easing room. Australian Dollar (AUD) is set for further strength due to favorable economic indicators and the political stability delivered by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election. These key indicators to look out for are the US ISM Services PMI, which may decide the direction of the US Dollar, and Australian inflation pressures, which may drive the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest-rate approach. As well, continuing US-China trade tensions are on high alert status for the AUD due to Australian dependence on trade with China. Albanese’s second term may bring about fresh economic policies, like cost-of-living assistance and tax reductions, although these policies are likely to drive inflation, impacting monetary policy in the future. Investors will be watching closely these events for more information on the AUD/USD forecast. Australian Dollar is strengthening on a backdrop of favorable economic data and Prime Minister Albanese’s re-election, with inflationary pressure and possible US-China trade tensions continuing to pose the biggest risks. Markets will remain attentive to the US ISM Services PMI and the RBA’s reaction to changing economic fundamentals for further guidance. •  The AUD is appreciating against the US Dollar, buoyed by good economic news and political stability after Prime Minister Albanese’s re-election. •  Albanese’s second term in office guarantees a responsible government with an agenda of cost-of-living relief, renewable energy, and healthcare, which may affect inflation. •  The TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI point to accelerating inflation and ongoing economic growth, which could affect the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy. •  Australia’s high trade surplus, rising exports, and growth in retail sales add to the positive AUD sentiment, even though retail sales did not meet expectations. •  The coming US ISM Services PMI will be important in deciding the direction of the US Dollar and might influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. •  Persistent trade tensions and trade negotiations between China and the US might harm the AUD, as Australia has close economic relations with China. •  Markets are anticipating a possible 25-basis-point rate reduction by the RBA in May, driven by both domestic economic conditions and international drivers such as US tariffs, ignoring inflationary pressures. Australian Dollar has been strengthened by upbeat economic news and political stability as a result of the re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. His election has lifted investor optimism with the pledge of a government committed to tackling cost-of-living, renewable energy, and prioritizing health and tax cuts. These policies, as much as they are good for the people, may also generate inflationary pressures and hinder the Reserve Bank of Australia in reducing interest rates in the near term. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In addition to political stability, economic figures for Australia have also been positive. The nation experienced a strong trade surplus as well as an increase in retail sales, although this fell slightly short of projections. With inflationary pressures building, the Australian economy continues to grow, underpinned by upbeat business attitudes as well as robust export performance. Meanwhile, external factors such as the US’s stance on trade with China and the possible effect of future US economic reports may also dictate global market sentiment, making the performance of AUD an interest to monitor in the next few weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is holding a bullish inclination, trading near 0.6460 and staying above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating continued upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still well above 50, further affirming the robustness of the prevailing trend. On the higher side, the pair may reach the five-month high of 0.6515, while the psychological mark of 0.6600 is also possible. The initial support comes in the form of the nine-day EMA at 0.6408, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6326. A break below these levels could undermine the bullish forecast, leaving the pair vulnerable to lower levels like 0.5914, the lowest level since March 2020. FORECAST Australian Dollar can be anticipated to continue its rally in the near term, potentially reaching the five-month high of 0.6515. Positive economic data from Australia, such as robust trade figures, retail sales, and ongoing growth in business activity, form a strong basis for further

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Remains Unchanged After RBA Rate Cut: Market Response and Future Projections

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  • February 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar has remained unchanged after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) equally expected move of reducing the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, its first rate cut in four years. Although RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the effect of high interest rates, she warned against presuming additional rate cuts. The AUD/USD currency pair was supported by a softer US Dollar, with downtrodden US retail sales and Federal Reserve officials being cautious on rate cuts. At the same time, the rise in US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, making it tough for the Australian Dollar. The market sentiment remains centered around significant support and resistance levels, with AUD/USD supporting an uptrend channel, indicating a positive bias.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Governor Michele Bullock indicated doubt regarding additional rate cuts, with future economic data being pivotal in deciding the next step by the central bank. • Fed officials emphasize caution on rate cuts with inflation worries, with US economic data being pivotal in informing future monetary policy. • Increasing US Treasury yields may make the US Dollar stronger, potentially capping AUD/USD gains despite the Australian Dollar’s strength following the RBA decision. • The duo is bullish in an uptrend channel, testing resistance at 0.6400 while important support is close to the 14-day EMA at 0.6300. Australian Dollar stability after the RBA’s rate cut confirms the market’s expectation of the move, and traders are now looking to see what future policy steps are ahead. While RBA Governor Michele Bullock hinted at indecision about further reductions, US Federal Reserve officials stuck to a wait-and-see approach, pointing to ongoing inflation threats. Increases in US Treasury yields have underpinned the US Dollar, which has made headwinds for AUD/USD even in its bullish path within an upward channel. The Australian Dollar held firm following the RBA rate cut, with investors looking to policy cues in the future. The increase in US Treasury yields, on the other hand, supported the US Dollar and proved difficult for AUD/USD. • The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first rate cut in four years. • The Australian Dollar did not react much since the rate cut decision had already been priced in by traders before the announcement. • Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that additional rate cuts are in doubt, mentioning robust employment and persistent inflation issues. • Higher US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, placing downward pressure on AUD/USD even after its post-RBA bounce. • Fed officials flashed warning signals for rate cuts, citing inflation threats and calling for greater economic clarity. • AUD/USD is still in an uptrend channel, with important resistance at 0.6400 and firm support at 0.6300. • US retail sales figures, Federal Reserve actions, and China’s economic policy are still driving Australian Dollar market sentiment. The Australian Dollar stabilized after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as anticipated cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock insisted that although high interest rates have touched the economy, it is still premature to speculate about more cuts in interest rates. The Australian “Big Four” banks of CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac also followed by cutting their lending rates promptly. The most recent inflation figures reported a deceleration in price pressures as Trimmed Mean CPI increased 0.5% last quarter, down from the anticipated 0.6%. Non with standing this, the robust labor market and conservative RBA approach mean that another round of rate cuts is not certain, keeping market participants on their toes for subsequent economic releases. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA At the same time, US Dollar found strength in increasing Treasury yields, curbing AUD/USD’s up potential. The Federal Reserve still holds back on reducing interest rates, with policymakers citing ongoing inflation threats and desiring greater certainty before altering monetary policy. The USD was dented by dismal US retail sales figures temporarily before AUD/USD could recover partially. Still, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallying and Treasury yields on the rise, the Australian Dollar has resistance around 0.6400. The pair currently is trading inside an upward trend channel, important support being in place at about 0.6300, making economic statistics in the pipeline as well as remarks by the central banks crucial to its immediate next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair trades in an uptrend channel, signifying the overall market bullish tendency in the near term. The pair also received support around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6316 and the 14-day EMA of 0.6300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the 50 mark, indicating positive momentum. The pair meets resistance on the upside around the top edge of the channel at 0.6390, with an important psychological level at 0.6400. A breach above the level would herald more gains, while a decline below the support line of approximately 0.6280 may suggest a reversal. Investors will be looking out for these key levels for indication of a trend breakdown or a breakout. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains in a bullish bias as long as it continues to trade in its rising channel, with the next resistance being at 0.6390 and the critical psychological level of 0.6400. If the pair is able to break above 0.6400, this may set further upside momentum into play, the next target being at 0.6450. Supportive reasons for the upward movement are a soft US Dollar, which could come under stress if economic indicators indicate that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy ahead of time. Also, any indication of strength in the Australian economy, especially in labor market data or inflation management, could support the AUD and bring further advances. AUD/USD has critical support at 0.6316 (nine-day EMA) and 0.6300 (14-day EMA). A breakdown below these levels may drive the pair to 0.6280, which is the lower end of the ascending channel. In case of a further increase in selling pressure, the next key support is at

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Struggles Below 0.6300: Market Uncertainty and Technical Signals Shape the Outlook

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  • February 11, 2025
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The AUD/USD pair continues trading in a tight range below the 0.6300 mark, unable to gain upward momentum amid expectations for an RBA rate cut and escalating US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, bolstered by fears that potential Trump tariffs could be inflationary and keep the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, weighs on the Australian Dollar. The advance, however, faces technical issues, with the prices finding support above the 50-day SMA and oscillators turning positive. However, a decisive break above 0.6300 would confirm a bullish reversal, targeting 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. On the contrary, a break and failure to sustain support at 0.6235 might trigger further decline to 0.6140, 0.6085, and eventually to the psychological level of 0.6000, hence sustaining the downtrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will then gain a lot of buying pressure above 0.6300 and drive up towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455, as the bullish breakout takes place. • The on-going prospects of an RBA rate cut next week still weigh down the Aussie even when technical levels were widely signaling a recovery. • Geopolitical uncertainty and increased trade war tensions between the U.S. and China are the primary headwinds for AUD, stopping it from moving higher. • A stronger US Dollar, coupled with potential Trump tariffs and inflation concerns, will keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, thus further capping upside in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD continues trading in a tight range below 0.6300 as a variety of factors continue to affect the movement. Expectations for a RBA rate cut, as well as US-China trade tensions, are weighing on the Australian Dollar, thus capping its upside potential. Meanwhile, a stronger USD, which is driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on inflation, is keeping the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance intact. From a technical perspective, a decisive break above 0.6300 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the pair towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. But if support at 0.6235 fails to hold, then the AUD/USD may be seen further lower towards 0.6140, 0.6085, and the psychological 0.6000 level, thus continuing the bearish trend. The AUD/USD pair is struggling below 0.6300, driven down by RBA rate cut bets, US-China trade tensions, and a stronger USD. A break above 0.6300 will reportedly indicate recovery to 0.6365 and 0.6400, while a failure to hold 0.6235 support will push it down to 0.6140 and 0.6000. • The pair remains stuck in a tight trading range and struggles to pick up pace due to its uncertain economic and geopolitical background. • It is expected to continue hammering and attracting down the Australian Dollar amid speculations of an upcoming RBA rate cut. • The Aussie is under stress as trade tensions continue to hot up between the US and China, not allowing it to break out into key resistance levels. • Better still, the USD has firmed further due to the expectation that potential Trump tariffs may boost inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. • Additional gains above 0.6300 are required to confirm upward momentum; if so, targets are at 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. •  Further weakness towards 0.6140 and then down to 0.6085 and then 0.6000 is possible if AUD/USD does not hold onto any strength above 0.6235. • The 50-day SMA and improving oscillators suggest a possible bullish reversal, but confirmation is needed above 0.6300. The AUD/USD pair remains trapped below the 0.6300 mark, struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors. RBA rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Australian Dollar, as investors anticipate a potential policy easing next week. Furthermore, rising US-China trade tensions remain a significant headwind and keep the Aussie under pressure. In addition, a stronger US Dollar, due to the belief that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could push inflation and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, limits further upside for AUD/USD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a very tight range, with resistance near 0.6300 as investors weigh the impact of RBA rate cut speculation and US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, adds further pressure on the Aussie, limiting any meaningful upside. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50-day SMA. This means it has a chance of breaking out on the upside if it clears 0.6300. The targets for this are at 0.6365 and 0.6400. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is an indication that momentum may be changing. The oscillators on the daily chart are showing positive traction. The pair might see a bullish breakout if it sustains above the 0.6300 resistance level. A successful breach of this key level might send the pair toward 0.6365, 0.6400, and the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Failure to break higher may invite renewed selling pressure, with 0.6235 acting as immediate support. A drop below this level will speed up the downtrend to 0.6140, 0.6085 and the psychological mark of 0.6000. Traders should be focusing on these important levels for the confirmation of a major price movement. FORECAST AUD/USD pair might break out positively if it succeeds in staying above the resistance point of 0.6300. A decisive break below this important level would confirm a bullish reversal, with possible targets at 0.6365 and 0.6400, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Technical indicators, including oscillators gaining positive momentum, suggest that buying pressure could increase if the pair remains above its 50-day SMA. Any positive risk-aversion environment or easing US-China trade tension would further increase the Aussie price and push the pair to much higher levels. AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.6300, it can attract fresh sellings, pulling the pair south. The short-term support now lies at 0.6235. Break below this, and the downtrend could proceed towards 0.6140 and 0.6085. A stronger US Dollar, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and potential Trump tariffs, may continue to cap the Aussie’s gains. Additionally, growing concerns over an RBA rate cut could

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