Forex Trading Tools and Services

AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies from 10-Month Highs as Markets Watch US Retail Sales and Fed Rate Cuts

  • BY
  • September 16, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated from a 10-month high of 0.6676 on Tuesday, as investors considered the forthcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and US Retail Sales figures. The AUD had previously risen on hopes after a US-China trade deal on TikTok and solid domestic data, such as a strong trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and increasing inflation expectations. In spite of a generally risk-on sentiment in the market, AUD came under pressure from a falling US Dollar (DXY at around 97.20) and continuing speculation regarding Fed rate reductions, with markets pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in the September meeting and possible easing up to 2026. Technical analysis indicates AUD/USD trading in an upward channel, targeting 11-month highs around 0.6700, with support at 0.6621 and 0.6570. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will monitor the release closely for clues about US consumer expenditure, which will impact Fed policy expectations and USD strength. • The market is expecting a 25-basis-point cut, but any surprise or description of future easing will affect AUD/USD momentum. • The pair may challenge 11-month highs around 0.6700, with the initial support at the nine-day EMA (0.6621) and the lower boundary of the rising channel (0.6570). • Domestic Australian figures and US-China trade trends, as well as general risk appetite, will keep influencing AUD strength. Australian Dollar (AUD) softened from its 10-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as markets looked out for major economic indicators, such as US Retail Sales and the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming rate announcement. Although previous advances were aided by a US-China commercial deal on TikTok and robust Australian economic data like a healthy trade surplus and inflation expectations increasing, the AUD was pressured with a weaker US Dollar and continued speculation regarding Fed cuts. Technicals indicate AUD/USD is still within an uptrend channel, targeting possible upside to 0.6700, with lower levels near 0.6621 and 0.6570. In the aggregate, the short-term direction of the currency will depend on global risk appetite and policy actions of both Australia and the US. The Australian Dollar retreated from a 10-month high versus the US Dollar as investors waited for US Retail Sales and the Fed’s rate cut decision. Gains earlier were buoyed by upbeat Australian economic data and a US-China TikTok agreement. AUD/USD now looks toward resistance around 0.6700, with support near 0.6621. • The Australian Dollar retreated from a 10-month high of 0.6676 versus the US Dollar. • Support came from a US-China trade deal on TikTok and robust Australian economic figures. • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates well-balanced risks and close inflation and consumer spending tracking. • August US Retail Sales data is a highlight upcoming event impacting the strength of USD. • Markets expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, with further easing possible through 2026. • AUD/USD is trading within an ascending channel, targeting 11-month highs near 0.6700. • Immediate support levels are at the nine-day EMA (0.6621) and the channel’s lower boundary (0.6570). The Australian Dollar (AUD) pulled back from a 10-month peak against the US Dollar (USD) as market players directed attention to coming US economic news and Federal Reserve policy actions. Previous gains were fueled by optimism after a US-China commercial deal to transfer TikTok into US hands and high domestic economic readings in Australia, such as a sound trade surplus, high Q2 GDP growth, and improving consumer inflation expectations. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers stressed the importance of a forward direction in ensuring economic stability and tracking consumer expenditure, noting confidence in maintaining inflation around target.    AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Global events and central bank policy continue to shape the AUD’s performance. The US Dollar has remained under pressure in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut, with the markets factoring in relief measures to buoy economic growth and prevent recessionary risks. In Australia, economic resilience and balanced risks in the outlook have capped expectations of further RBA rate cuts. While that is happening, market participants are watching broader market sentiment, such as trade news, US consumer indicators, and world economic health, which will keep influencing the currency’s near-term direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is moving in a clearly defined upward channel, reflecting a positive market bias. The pair is now sitting above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reflecting high short-term momentum. On the positive side, the pair may aim for the 11-month high of 0.6687, then the channel top around 0.6700. On the negative side, there is initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6621, then support at the lower edge of the rising channel around 0.6570. A fall through this channel might reverse short-term momentum and lead the pair to the 50-day EMA at 0.6535. FORECAST AUD/USD can continue to move higher towards the 11-month high of 0.6687, and then further test the upper resistance of the ascending channel around 0.6700. Encouragement from solid Australian economic data, loss of expectation for additional RBA rate cuts, and global risk-on mood can further propel it higher in the near term. To the downside, the pair may be supported by the nine-day EMA at 0.6621 and the lower line of the uptrend channel at 0.6570. A fall below these levels could destroy short-term bullish momentum, sending AUD/USD towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6535, particularly if US economic data surprises to the upside or Fed rate-cut hopes fade.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Gains on the Basis of Key ISM Services PMI Data to Come

  • BY
  • August 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar remains under pressure even with robust domestic PMI data due to the resilience of the US Dollar in anticipation of the release of key ISM Services PMI data. Better economic news from both Australia and China has had little effect in pushing the AUD higher, with wider market sentiment being dampened by speculation of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut and international trade tensions. Developments in the US, such as weak jobs reports, inflation worries on the increase, and political interference in economic institutions, have contributed to uncertainty but seen the USD’s relative strength maintained. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is following closely on this point of data for new indications of the US economy’s strength and direction of Fed policy in the future. • The anticipation of 25 bps of rate cutting will weigh further on the Australian Dollar if it materializes. • Even with inferior job numbers and political turmoil, the USD is still supported, affecting AUD/USD momentum. • A surprise spike in China’s Caixin Services PMI could provide some limited upside to the AUD, considering the trade relations of Australia with China. The Australian Dollar is bearish despite positive domestic and Chinese PMI readings, as general market sentiment remains bullish on the US Dollar prior to the ISM Services PMI announcement. Although Australia’s S&P Composite and Services PMIs recorded significant advances in July, hopes of a possible rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to weigh down investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains steadfast with increasing political uncertainty, poor jobs data, and ever-present trade tensions driving the bearish sentiment for the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar remains soft despite positive PMI numbers, with the US Dollar holding steady prior to the ISM Services PMI release. Hopes of an RBA rate cut, alongside global trade tensions, continue to bear down on AUD/USD sentiment. • Australian Dollar softens despite positive S&P Global Composite and Services PMI readings for July. •  China’s Caixin Services PMI sharply higher at 52.6, indicating firmer regional demand. • US Dollar strong pre-ISM Services PMI, keeping AUD/USD under pressure. • RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points next week as inflation eases and unemployment rises. • Fed Governor Kugler resignation allows Trump to exert early control over the central bank, sparking fears of Fed independence. •  US NFP data is a letdown with only the addition of 73,000 jobs in July and a marginal increase in the unemployment rate. •  Technical perspective of AUD/USD remains bearish with the pair trading below significant moving averages and RSI below 50. The Australian Dollar continues to suffer despite robust economic data from both Australia and China. Australia’s S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI in July both reported significant improvement, which is indicative of ongoing private-sector growth and the best expansion since early 2022. China’s Caixin Services PMI also increased strongly, indicating more robust service-sector activity in the region that would generally underpin Australian export demand. But these encouraging data points have not yet resulted in significant gains for the AUD, given that market sentiment overall is overshadowed by central bank expectations and geopolitical events. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the US, political and economic developments are dictating the market narrative. The surprise resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler provides President Trump with the opportunity to shape the Federal Reserve sooner than expected, raising questions regarding the independence of the institution. Moreover, recent moves like the removal of the BLS Commissioner and the introduction of fresh tariffs have added to the uncertainty. In spite of a softer jobs report, the US Dollar has remained resilient, with investors waiting for more clarity from the forthcoming economic data and Fed policy moves. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair continues to have a bearish bias, trading below important short-term moving averages. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be below the level of 50, which suggests poor momentum. The pair is now trading around 0.6470 levels, with the immediate support coming at the recent low of 0.6419. A close below this point would see further weakness to the next significant support of 0.6372. To the upside, resistance comes in at the 9-day EMA of 0.6485 and the 50-day EMA of 0.6494; a firm break above these might encourage a switch to short-term positive sentiment. FORECAST If later US data, specifically the ISM Services PMI, is weaker than anticipated or reflects economic deceleration, the US Dollar may lose some of its vigor, providing scope for recovery in the Australian Dollar. Also, any unexpected move by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates unchanged rather than cut them may sustain a bounce in AUD/USD. A breach above resistance levels of 0.6485 and 0.6494 might set the stage towards the 0.6625 level, particularly if risk appetite picks up and global trade tensions subside. On the negative side, if ISM Services PMI numbers surprise higher or if US yields increase even more, the US Dollar can continue to advance, and place further pressure on the AUD. Confirmation of the RBA cutting rates next week would also support bearish sentiment towards the Australian Dollar. From a technical perspective, a clear fall below 0.6419 might sustain losses, and the pair could slide towards the next significant support around 0.6372, seen late last June.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthened as Chronic Inflation Threats and Global Tariff Disputes Persist

  • BY
  • July 9, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rise against the US Dollar (USD), fueled by chronic inflation threats highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and escalating global trade tensions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the ongoing influence of high labor costs and poor productivity on inflation, which is a signal of possible rate-cut delays. In the meantime, global sentiment is still risk-averse in the face of escalating US tariffs by President Trump, which involve steep tariffs on copper, drugs, and products of several countries. The AUD remains strong despite a stable US Dollar, riding on its strong trade relations with China and hope for China’s reforms. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is currently on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after it left rates unchanged at 3.85% despite speculation of a reduction. Risks to inflation may delay the easing. • The market is paying close attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes in anticipation of direction on the US Fed’s interest rate path and its implication for movement of USD. • US President Trump’s suggested 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, as well as sweeping levies against several nations, are contributing to worldwide trade tensions and affecting risk sentiment. • China’s PPI and CPI readings and widening offshore access to Chinese bond markets could have a major impact on AUD trends given Australia’s penetration of China economically. Australian Dollar is holding strong against the US Dollar, underpinned by ongoing inflation fears and guarded optimism over China’s economy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments on ongoing inflation on the back of higher labor costs and poor productivity have pushed back expectations of a near-future rate cut, despite market expectations of easing in August. While, in the meantime, growing trade tensions sparked by US President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy have unsettled global markets, AUD still stands to gain from its intimate trade correlation with China, particularly with China’s determination to open up its capital markets as well as rev up economic growth. Australian Dollar remains strong in the face of ongoing inflation risks highlighted by the RBA and rising global trade tensions. High fundamentals with China and hopes for economic reforms keep AUD fundamentals strong. Markets now look to FOMC Minutes for further guidance. • AUD/USD rallies for a second consecutive session, buoyed by Australian inflation concerns. •  RBA maintains interest rates at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a 25 bps reduction, due to persisting inflation risks. •  Governor Michele Bullock says that high labor costs and poor productivity may sustain inflation at elevated levels. •  China’s CPI increases by 0.1% YoY, some good news for Australia’s export-oriented economy. •  Trump imposes new tariffs, including a 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, escalating global trade tensions. • US Dollar holds firm, with attention turning to the next FOMC Minutes for guidance on policy. • Technicals are bullish, with AUD/USD eyeing resistance around 0.6535 and maybe even 0.6590. The Australian Dollar is strengthening after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hints at ongoing inflation threats through high unit labor costs and reducing productivity. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed that the full effects of past interest rate reductions are yet to be realized, and thereby advised caution before making any further monetary policy moves. Though market players and key Australian banks had been expecting a rate cut, the central bank’s resolve to remain tight shows it is serious about fighting inflation. This move mirrors the RBA’s focus on long-term price stability and its resolve to watch more data before policy changes. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In international news, increased trade tensions initiated by US President Donald Trump’s confrontational tariff policy are driving economic uncertainty. New taxes on a broad array of imports—ranging from copper and pharmaceuticals to imports from several countries—are likely to remake world supply chains and affect trade flows. Under these circumstances, Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China is even more important, particularly as China introduces reforms to increase investment access and compensate for export interruption. These economic and geopolitical changes are molding currency markets, with the Australian Dollar remaining robust in the midst of the global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a bullish inclination while trading around the 0.6530 level and holding tight in an upward sloping channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the midpoint 50, signaling fair bullish momentum. Though, the pair is now testing resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535. A clean break above this point could open the door towards the recent peak of 0.6590 and even beyond to higher levels around the top of the channel at 0.6680. Support on the downside is around 0.6510, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6475. FORECAST If the Australian Dollar can take out and hold above the short-term resistance level at 0.6535 (nine-day EMA), it would gain more bullish momentum. A successful breach above this level may take the AUD/USD pair towards the recent high of 0.6590, and potentially challenge the upper edge of the rising channel around 0.6680. Positive news from China’s economic sector or additional hawkish indications from the RBA would further push the Aussie Dollar higher. Conversely, a failure to clear 0.6535 could see a short-term pullback. The first support is at the lower border of the ascending channel at 0.6510, then the 50-day EMA at 0.6475. A firm break below these could turn sentiment bearish, bringing the pair towards the two-month low of 0.6372. Increased tensions in global trade or a slightly firmer-than-expected US Dollar due to the FOMC Minutes could hasten this decline.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises as Ceasefire Expectations and Confident China Data Lift Risk Mood

  • BY
  • June 16, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar rallied as positive risk mood emerged from possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East with rocket exchanges between Iran and Israel. Optimistic economic readings from Australia’s most important trading partner, China, further supported the AUD, as Retail Sales exceeded forecasts at 6.4% year-on-year in May. While the US Dollar dipped after mixed economic data involving below-forecast Producer Price Index (PPI) growth and increase in consumer sentiment, the AUD/USD currency pair has a bullish trend inside an uptrend channel, but is near-term capped by resistance at 0.6495, with firmer barriers at recent highs, while risks are lower if levels of support get breached. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a hostage release may result in a short-term ceasefire, boosting global risk sentiment and favoring the Australian Dollar. •  Better-than-anticipated Retail Sales expansion in China to 6.4% YoY paints a favorable picture for Australia’s export-oriented economy, although uncertainties are in place due to possible trade policy changes. •  Ongoing Iranian-Israeli missile exchanges maintain geopolitical risks in a heightened state, which can affect safe-haven flows and currency market volatility. •  Weaker US PPI and improving consumer sentiment are likely to impact the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions, with markets presently pricing in a future rate cut within a month. Australian Dollar is supported by improving global risk sentiment as fresh optimism for a ceasefire in Israel-Hamas conflict continues with tensions in the Middle East. Strong economic news from China, Australia’s key trade partner, also supports the Aussie, with Retail Sales in May coming in stronger than predicted at 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell slightly following mixed economic data, such as softer-than-anticipated Producer Price Index (PPI) data and an improvement in consumer sentiment, affecting market sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. Even with the positive backdrop, geopolitical tensions and future US monetary policy actions remain a challenge for the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar finds support on improving risk mood fueled by prospects of possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Sustained Chinese Retail Sales strength adds to the momentum for the Aussie, although mixed US economic data deters the US Dollar. Nevertheless, middle-east tension and looming Fed actions retain market uncertainty. • Australian Dollar rallies on improved risk mood on expectations of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. • China’s Retail Sales increased 6.4% YoY in May, topping consensus and underpinning Australia’s trade outlook. • Middle East tensions continue, with Iran and Israel trading missile strikes in defiance of international appeals for diplomacy. • US Dollar tumbles as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI were softer than anticipated. • US Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June, above the predicted 53.5. • Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates steady but could reduce rates by 25 basis points through September. • Technical picture for AUD/USD remains positive within the uptrend channel, with resistance at 0.6495 and support at 0.6470. The Australian Dollar is strengthening as world risk mood improves, mainly due to the advancement of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas. In spite of the continued hostilities, the likelihood of a temporary ceasefire has given financial markets a reprieve. Nevertheless, tensions continue to run high as Iran and Israel keep on trading missile attacks with each other, threatening wider regional stability. The crisis has attracted international attention, and the calls for diplomacy have grown louder as casualties mount on either side. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Another source of bullishness for the Australian Dollar is the recent announcement of better-than-forecast economic indicators from China, one of Australia’s most important trading partners. China’s Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-on-year in May, beating market forecasts and prior levels, marking robust domestic demand. At the same time, Industrial Production registered moderate expansion, boding well for a steady but conservative economic pace. These advancements combined with conflicting economic indications from the United States have provoked investors to adjust their anticipations regarding future Federal Reserve policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair maintains a positive bias since it remains trading within a rising channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the middleline at 50, pointing towards weak bullish momentum. Near-term resistance is close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6495, and additional resistance sits at the recent seven-month high of 0.6538. Support on the downside is the lower end of the bullish channel at approximately 0.6470, and a fall below here may undermine the bullish thesis with further losses towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6425. FORECAST If upbeat risk sentiment prevails, boosted by advancements in Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations and robust Chinese economic statistics, the AUD/USD currency pair might extend its upside through the near-term resistance at 0.6495. A continuous move upwards could then aim at the recent seven-month peak of 0.6538, and if bullish momentum intensifies, the pair might target the eight-month high of about 0.6687, then the upper side of the rising channel at 0.6730. To the negative, increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or any unforeseen slump in world risk appetite may pressure the AUD/USD pair. A fall below the 0.6470 support level, which is the lower boundary of the ascending channel, could induce further selling. In that event, the pair may retest the 50-day EMA at 0.6425, with further downside risks extending to the 0.6380 area should bearish sentiment intensify.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Moves Back Towards 0.6500 as Soft US Data Deters Dollar Strength

  • BY
  • June 4, 2025
  • 0 Comments

AUD/USD currency pair moved back higher on Wednesday, moving back towards the 0.6500 level as the US Dollar fell back after weaker-than-anticipated economic data. Even with the news that Australia’s GDP grew at only 0.2% in Q1 and saw its business activity barely move in May, the Australian Dollar picked up following the deterioration in the Greenback. US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI both came in below expectations, indicating a deceleration in the US economy and stoking speculation of a Federal Reserve policy change. The pair’s rally shows the market’s responsiveness to US macroeconomic data, with more to come before Australia’s trade numbers and the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS • A vital determinant that may impact Fed rate expectations and trigger meaningful USD movement. •  Could offer short-term guidance on the AUD based on export result and trade surplus data. • A significant psychological and technical level; a clean breakout might indicate additional bullish pressure. •  Market sentiment for a dovish tilt may continue to press on the US Dollar if weak data continues. AUD/USD pair is displaying strength, rebounding against the critical 0.6500 level as the US Dollar falters with dismal economic reports. Disappointing employment figures from the ADP and an unexpected weakening in the ISM Services PMI have created doubts regarding the vigour of the US economy, fueling speculation regarding a possible policy change from the Federal Reserve. Even though Australia’s own weaker GDP growth and muted PMI readings failed to make a dent, the Australian Dollar recovered later from early losses on technical support around the 0.6450 level. Attention now turns to subsequent Australian trade data and the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may provide the pair with fresh impetus. AUD/USD recovered to around 0.6500 as the US Dollar softened on weak jobs and services data. In spite of Australia’s poor GDP, the Aussie was supported by technical buying and USD weakness. Traders now look for Australia’s trade data and the US NFP report for direction. • AUD/USD recovered back to 0.6500, recovering losses from weak Australian GDP data. •  US Dollar lower following underwhelming ADP employment (37,000 vs. 115,000 anticipated) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 anticipated). • Australian Q1 GDP eased to 0.2% QoQ, the weakest expansion in three quarters, below forecasts of 0.4%. • S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs indicated limited growth, with readings hovering marginally above 50. • Technical floor at 0.6450 remained in place, triggering fresh AUD buying interest. • DXY (US Dollar Index) fell below 99.00, indicative of broad USD weakness in the face of weak US data. • The next major move in the pair is most likely to be influenced by upcoming Australian trade data and US Nonfarm Payrolls. The Australian currency strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, primarily fueled by a weakening Greenback in the wake of softer-than-projected US economic data. The ADP Employment Change report showed a sharp deceleration of hiring, with private companies adding just 37,000 jobs in May — the weakest in more than a year. Further, the ISM Services PMI dipped into contraction ground for the first time this year, an indication of a larger moderation in the services sector. These points have provoked alarm regarding the health of the U.S. economy and heightened market speculation surrounding a possible change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, Australia’s domestic data showed a mixed reading. Although GDP growth eased to 0.2% for the first quarter, the lowest rate in three quarters, the economy maintained its record of unbroken expansion. The most recent PMI readings revealed marginal movement in business activity, and overall indicative of a generally slow but stable economic climate. As focus shifts now towards Australia’s next trade balance and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, market players continue to watch closely how changing economic indicators will influence central bank projections and currency action over the next few days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is pointing towards a rebound after it encountered solid support around the 0.6450 level, which has served as a floor in successive sessions. The pair is currently hinting at testing the 0.6500 psychological resistance, a level that has halted rallies on several occasions, meaning that a decisive breakout above it may pave the way for further gains. Momentum tools such as the RSI are slowly shifting into positive territory, reflecting renewed buying demand. But persistence above 0.6500 is the key to establishing a bullish breakout, while a failure to break this level might lead to further consolidation around the range thus far. FORECAST AUD/USD exchange rate manages to move above the 0.6500 resistance level, it might initiate further bullish momentum, particularly if future releases from Australia indicate a higher trade surplus or in case the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes short. A breakthrough above this psychological level might unlock the way to the next resistance around 0.6550 or further, as sentiment towards the Australian Dollar improves. Further deterioration in US economic data could also generate speculation regarding further Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting the pair. To the downside, a failure to break the 0.6500 barrier could produce fresh selling pressure, with the pair likely to retest support around the 0.6450 area. A better-than-expected US jobs report or more hawkish Fed commentary might revive demand for the US Dollar, taking AUD/USD down. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair might drift towards 0.6400, particularly if Australian trade data disappoints or global risk sentiment deteriorates.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengths on US-China Trade Tensions and Critical Economic Data on the Horizon

  • BY
  • May 13, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained strength against the US Dollar (USD) after a bounce back in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which climbed 2.2% in May after plummeting the month before. This follows as the US Dollar comes under pressure prior to the announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. Market sentiment for a less hawkish approach by the Federal Reserve, along with the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, has resulted in the AUD/USD pair’s recovery. But even as the pair experienced such positive momentum, technical indicators lean towards a bearish forecast for the pair, with important support levels looming ahead, reflecting the continued uncertainty in global trade flows and domestic policy. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The advance US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will play a significant role in determining market sentiment regarding upcoming Federal Reserve policy. Economists expect an inflation rebound, and it may have an impact on the US Dollar, thereby influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate. • The continuing trade negotiations between China and the US continue to be a key driver. While there has been a tentative deal to lower tariffs, any developments in these negotiations or comments by US officials could affect global market mood and the AUD. •  With prospects for the RBA to lower rates in the near future, market players need to carefully observe any shift in RBA communication or announcements, especially at its next policy meeting, which could make a difference to the strength of the AUD. • Continuous indicators from large economies, such as China’s deteriorating CPI and PPI levels, and Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index, will give the world economic landscape and influence trade-sensitive currency sentiment such as that of the AUD. With the Australian Dollar strengthening against the US Dollar, market sentiment is influenced by a number of key determinants. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April will be pivotal, with inflation expectations potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions and the USD’s direction. Trade talks between the US and China, particularly the reduction of tariffs, are another major focus, as any changes in this relationship could significantly impact global market dynamics and the AUD. Also adding to the volatility in the AUD/USD exchange rate is the expectation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the coming short term. With worldwide economic data, such as the slowing down of China’s CPI and PPI figures, also fuelling the uncertainty, market observers need to remain on their toes for any news that will trigger further Aussie dollar volatility. Australian Dollar has strengthened versus the US Dollar, backed by encouraging news out of Australia and a de-escalation of US-China tensions. Key observations to keep in mind include the forthcoming US CPI report, whether Federal Reserve policy will shift, and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate moves, all of which may have a bearing on the direction of AUD. • The AUD has appreciated against the US Dollar on the back of strong Australian economic data and increasing consumer confidence. • The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is due out soon and has the potential to influence significantly market expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding interest rates. • An initial US-China trade agreement that lowers tariffs would lower global trade tensions and could impact market sentiment. • As inflation and unemployment worries persist, the Federal Reserve policy direction will continue to be a dominant force in determining the strength of the US Dollar. • Expectations are building for the RBA to lower interest rates in its next meeting, which would drag on the AUD. • Chinese data, a third month of CPI fall in a row, indicates continued economic weakness that can affect the wider market. • The AUD/USD currency pair is probing significant technical levels, with support at the 50-day EMA and resistance at the nine-day EMA, indicating possible price volatility. Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained strong against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of a positive change in consumer sentiment in Australia, as indicated by the rebound in the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index. This is at a time when relaxing trade tensions between the US and China have also given a boost to confidence in global markets. The initial trade agreement, which features tariff reduction, portends stability in trade between the two global economic powerhouses, a development important to Australia as much as it would be to the United States, given its robust bilateral economic relations with China. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the near term, market participants are looking to the next US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, which may bring more clarity to inflation trends and have implications for future Federal Reserve policy. Furthermore, hopes for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in the near term are creating a degree of uncertainty around the Australian Dollar’s outlook. As more economic data from across the globe pours in, led by China, these events will be instrumental in determining market mood and guiding the movements of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair has been experiencing some resistance at around the 0.6400 level, with it trading just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite the recent rally, the pair is still trading below this near-term moving average, which means that the trend is bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen below the neutral 50 level, adding to the bearish sentiment. The key support is at the 50-day EMA level of 0.6344, and a fall below this level may indicate further downside potential. But if the pair can break above the 0.6400 resistance level, it may test the six-month high of 0.6515, indicating a possible change in momentum. FORECAST Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be supported by upbeat economic data and the de-escalation of global trade tensions, the AUD/USD currency pair may extend its gains. A breakout

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthens on Economic Data and Political Advances, US Dollar Under Pressure Before ISM Services PMI

  • BY
  • May 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to build strength against the US Dollar (USD) based on a mix of favorable economic data and political advances in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s success in being re-elected with a second consecutive three-year term has lifted investors’ confidence, while inflation information such as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI exhibited ongoing economic growth. Moreover, a robust trade surplus and favourable retail sales were further bolstering the AUD. While that is happening, the US Dollar has come under pressure from markets waiting for the ISM Services PMI and weighing the role of President Trump’s position regarding Federal Reserve policies and global trade. With the AUD/USD pair trading close to five-month highs, the market continues to await future economic news and geopolitical events for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next US ISM Services PMI will be an important sign of economic wellbeing and may have an effect on the US Dollar direction. The market will be looking for surprises that can move market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. • Ongoing inflation pressures in Australia, such as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI, can shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy actions in the future. Market expectations of an impending May rate cut might change pending these developments. • Continued trade negotiations and future tensions between the US and China may bear down on the Australian Dollar, considering Australia’s close trading relationships with China. Any intensification of trade tensions would be detrimental to AUD sentiment. •  Re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may have an impact on economic policy, including cost-of-living relief, support for renewable energy, and tax cuts. These actions may, however, contribute to inflationary pressure, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy easing room. Australian Dollar (AUD) is set for further strength due to favorable economic indicators and the political stability delivered by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election. These key indicators to look out for are the US ISM Services PMI, which may decide the direction of the US Dollar, and Australian inflation pressures, which may drive the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest-rate approach. As well, continuing US-China trade tensions are on high alert status for the AUD due to Australian dependence on trade with China. Albanese’s second term may bring about fresh economic policies, like cost-of-living assistance and tax reductions, although these policies are likely to drive inflation, impacting monetary policy in the future. Investors will be watching closely these events for more information on the AUD/USD forecast. Australian Dollar is strengthening on a backdrop of favorable economic data and Prime Minister Albanese’s re-election, with inflationary pressure and possible US-China trade tensions continuing to pose the biggest risks. Markets will remain attentive to the US ISM Services PMI and the RBA’s reaction to changing economic fundamentals for further guidance. •  The AUD is appreciating against the US Dollar, buoyed by good economic news and political stability after Prime Minister Albanese’s re-election. •  Albanese’s second term in office guarantees a responsible government with an agenda of cost-of-living relief, renewable energy, and healthcare, which may affect inflation. •  The TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI point to accelerating inflation and ongoing economic growth, which could affect the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy. •  Australia’s high trade surplus, rising exports, and growth in retail sales add to the positive AUD sentiment, even though retail sales did not meet expectations. •  The coming US ISM Services PMI will be important in deciding the direction of the US Dollar and might influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. •  Persistent trade tensions and trade negotiations between China and the US might harm the AUD, as Australia has close economic relations with China. •  Markets are anticipating a possible 25-basis-point rate reduction by the RBA in May, driven by both domestic economic conditions and international drivers such as US tariffs, ignoring inflationary pressures. Australian Dollar has been strengthened by upbeat economic news and political stability as a result of the re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. His election has lifted investor optimism with the pledge of a government committed to tackling cost-of-living, renewable energy, and prioritizing health and tax cuts. These policies, as much as they are good for the people, may also generate inflationary pressures and hinder the Reserve Bank of Australia in reducing interest rates in the near term. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In addition to political stability, economic figures for Australia have also been positive. The nation experienced a strong trade surplus as well as an increase in retail sales, although this fell slightly short of projections. With inflationary pressures building, the Australian economy continues to grow, underpinned by upbeat business attitudes as well as robust export performance. Meanwhile, external factors such as the US’s stance on trade with China and the possible effect of future US economic reports may also dictate global market sentiment, making the performance of AUD an interest to monitor in the next few weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is holding a bullish inclination, trading near 0.6460 and staying above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating continued upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still well above 50, further affirming the robustness of the prevailing trend. On the higher side, the pair may reach the five-month high of 0.6515, while the psychological mark of 0.6600 is also possible. The initial support comes in the form of the nine-day EMA at 0.6408, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6326. A break below these levels could undermine the bullish forecast, leaving the pair vulnerable to lower levels like 0.5914, the lowest level since March 2020. FORECAST Australian Dollar can be anticipated to continue its rally in the near term, potentially reaching the five-month high of 0.6515. Positive economic data from Australia, such as robust trade figures, retail sales, and ongoing growth in business activity, form a strong basis for further

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falls in Face of Trade Tensions and China Deflation Fears Amid Consumer Confidence Bounce

  • BY
  • March 11, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Australian Dollar continues to fall against the US Dollar, burdened by rising global trade tensions and worsening deflationary fears in China—Australia’s biggest trading partner. Even with a big bounce in Westpac Consumer Confidence to a three-year high, fueled by recent interest rate reductions and softening living expenses, the AUD can’t find its footing. Stagnated US-China trade talks, counter-tariffs, and waning Chinese demand have weighed on sentiment, as weaker US employment data and fears of recession further clouded the wider picture. With investors expecting crucial inflation reads and other direction from central banks, the AUD/USD continues to be battered, trading around multi-week lows. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch intently for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after robust numbers trimmed expectations of further rate easing. • Continuing deadlock in US-China trade negotiations and fresh retaliatory tariffs continue to influence Australian market sentiment and global risk appetite. • Accelerating deflationary pressure in China is a significant threat to Australia’s export-oriented economy, particularly in the context of slowing consumer demand after Spring Festival. • Market participants are waiting for US inflation figures, which would potentially affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and propel short-term AUD/USD movements. The Australian Dollar continues to come under pressure as rising global trade tensions and China’s worsening deflation feed fears about Australia’s economic prospects. Amid a significant rise in consumer sentiment—reflected in Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index hitting a three-year high—the external headwinds continue to dominate local optimism. The US-China trade impasse extended over time, joined by retaliatory tariffs and waning demand in China, has quashed investor sentiment and risk appetite. At the same time, technical indicators point to bearish momentum for AUD/USD, with investors looking for significant US inflation data and further information about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy direction. The Australian Dollar remains under pressure even after consumer confidence rose, as global trade tensions and deflation concerns in China act as a dampener for sentiment. US-China negotiations’ stalemate and declining risk appetite keep the AUD/USD pair around multi-week lows. • Australian Dollar continues to be under pressure as a result of escalating global trade tensions and China’s increasing deflation worries. • Westpac Consumer Confidence jumped 4% in March, a three-year high, driven by interest rate reductions and softening living expenses. • US-China trade talks continue to be at an impasse, with retaliatory tariffs further weighing on market sentiment and affecting Australia’s export-oriented economy. • Deflation in China indicates poor domestic demand, which threatens Australian exports and general economic prospects. • Uncertainty around the US economy continues, with poor jobs numbers and recession worries driving global currency flows. • RBA remains cautious in its policy, and recent economic news has lowered the expectation of further rate cuts. • Market players wait for the next US inflation figures, which may influence future Federal Reserve policies and affect the AUD/USD exchange rate. The Australian Dollar is strained as global trade tensions escalate and economic uncertainty rises, driven particularly by increasing deflation fears in China—Australia’s biggest trading partner. While consumer sentiment improved significantly, with Westpac Consumer Confidence reaching a three-year high, overall market sentiment remains cautious. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent rate cut and alleviation of cost-of-living pressures have improved domestic optimism, but external threats continue to loom over local economic gains. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Impeded US-China trade talks and retaliatory tariffs are driving fears of a weakening global demand, which directly affects Australia’s trade-dependent economy. In the background, political events and soft US job data are influencing expectations for future economic policy. As investors continue to keep an eye on future inflation data and central bank cues, the Australian Dollar’s performance will tend to be guided by these changing global dynamics. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar is exhibiting signs of ongoing weakness versus the US Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair trading around significant support levels. The pair has fallen below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which signals bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 level, indicating mounting selling pressure. If the downtrend continues, the pair would test lower support levels, while recovery would demand a persistent break above the near-term resistance zones to turn sentiment again in the bullish direction. FORECAST In the event that global sentiment is improving and US-China trade tensions abate, the Australian Dollar would recover, particularly if China’s economic data begin to stabilize. A flip in commodity demand to the positive or an unexpected pick-up in China’s inflation rates can drive Australia’s export economy, potentially pushing the AUD higher. Furthermore, if the Reserve Bank of Australia continues its dovish but accommodative policy without additional rate cuts, this should reinforce investor confidence and support a modest recovery in the currency. But the risks on the downside are also considerable. Ongoing trade uncertainty, ongoing deflationary pressures in China, or additional escalation in global tariff tensions would bear down on the Australian Dollar. If future US inflation numbers bolster the argument for the Federal Reserve to keep or postpone rate cuts, the US Dollar could gain further traction, putting further pressure on the AUD. In addition, any fresh weakness in Australian economic data or a turn towards more dovish RBA commentary may speed the currency’s decline in the near term.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

  • BY
  • March 7, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens as traders exercise caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with market sentiment remaining subdued. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and a rising trade surplus, AUD/USD struggles due to ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over slowing global economic momentum. While the US Dollar (USD) is stable, backed by a decline in jobless claims, but mixed employment statistics and Federal Reserve policy ambiguity keep the market nervous. Technicals show AUD/USD testing critical support levels, with a risk of downside if the pair goes below the 50-day EMA. Investors now wait for the NFP data to decide the direction of the market. KEY LOOKOUTS • February’s NFP figure, due at 160K, is something traders look forward to, as it may impact USD strength and continue to weigh on AUD/USD. • An improving trade surplus and shrinking imports influence sentiment in the markets, with Chinese economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty acting as a burden on the Australian Dollar. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s position on growth and inflation is still of great importance, with possible policy change affecting AUD direction. • AUD/USD tests the 50-day EMA at 0.6309; a break below it may trigger more falls, with major support at 0.6187. The Australian Dollar continues to weaken as investors go cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is anticipated to report a rebound in job creation to 160K. While Australia’s better-than-anticipated GDP growth and growing trade surplus are not enough to overcome global trade risks and tensions with China, AUD/USD lags, with geopolitical tensions in focus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook remains under the spotlight, with possible changes affecting investor sentiment. Technical indicators indicate AUD/USD testing crucial support on the 50-day EMA at 0.6309, while breaking below that level could initiate further losses towards 0.6187. The Australian Dollar loses strength with investors cautious in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, influencing market sentiment. Ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions push AUD/USD despite robust Australian GDP growth. Technical support at 0.6309 continues to be important, and a breakdown beneath hints at further potential for losses. • The Australian Dollar loses ground as investors hold back in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which is forecasted to record job growth at 160K. • US Dollar remains strong underpinned by diminished jobless claims, though mixed employment information contributes to market uncertainty. • An increase in China’s trade surplus and weakening imports affects global trade flows, which has an impact on AUD/USD movement. • US/China tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty, put pressure on the Australian Dollar. • Investors monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attitude toward inflation and economic growth for signs of policy changes. • AUD/USD probes important support at 0.6309 (50-day EMA), with additional downside potential if this level is broken. • The NFP release will be a strong driver for USD strength or weakness, determining the next direction for AUD/USD. The Australian Dollar continues to be under selling pressure as the market players remain cautious before the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, an important gauge of the strength of the US labor market. The market players are keeping a close eye on international trade trends, especially China’s increasing trade surplus and falling imports, which have implications for Australia’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions are still influencing market sentiment, with doubt about US trade policy and potential Chinese reaction piling onto economic worries. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has stuck with its forecast for economic growth to slow down, and although Australian GDP revealed stronger-than-anticipated growth in Q4 2024, general economic uncertainties are leaving investors cautious. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, sentiment remains mixed as economic data paint a contradictory picture of growth and stability. While claims for unemployment decreased, other measures of employment, including the ADP Employment Change, fell considerably short of projections, casting doubts on the labor market’s strength. Moreover, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy change are increasing as analysts argue about whether the Fed will focus more on curbing economic momentum rather than inflation issues. The next NFP report should give more clarity, and the market sentiment as well as investor strategy in the near term would be influenced by that. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a newly established rising channel, reflecting a possible bullish inclination in spite of recent downward pressure. The pair is presently trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6309, which is an important support level and could be the next point of direction. If this level is sustained, AUD/USD might try and challenge the initial resistance at 0.6408, the three-month high on February 21. A breakdown below this support, however, may allow lower levels, with the next significant support at 0.6187, the four-week low of March 5. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, which indicates that demand continues, but market reservation in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep aggressive moves in either direction under check. FORECAST AUD/USD may witness a rise, especially if the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release is disappointing and weakens the US Dollar. A disappointing NFP print, which would be weaker than anticipated, might raise speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thus supporting risk assets such as the Australian Dollar. Moreover, any encouraging news in China’s economic policies, like additional stimulus packages or improved trade performance, might favor AUD’s rebound. If the bullish pressure intensifies, the pair could try to push above the major resistance level of 0.6408, with a subsequent move towards 0.6440 if global risk appetite continues to improve. On the other hand, AUD/USD could be prone to further losses if the US NFP report comes in better than expected, pushing the US Dollar higher. A more robust labor market report may solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position on rate cuts, driving up USD demand. Moreover, persistent trade

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Consolidates Strength on Economic Data and US Dollar Weakness as Major Events Loom

  • BY
  • March 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate its strength as the US Dollar (USD) stays weak in the face of economic uncertainty and the pending major data releases. Australia’s GDP growth beat forecasts in Q4 2024, bolstering confidence in the economy, while China’s better-than-expected Services PMI further underpinned the AUD. On the other hand, the US is grappling with rising trade policy concerns as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled potential reappraisal of Trump’s tariffs that have already influenced market mood. The AUD/USD pair is quoted around 0.6260, with technicals indicating support at the nine-day EMA and potential downward risks if major support levels are breached. While the market waits for the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, AUD’s strength is once again the currency market focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, beating forecast, affirming economic strength and backing the Australian Dollar during global uncertainty. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested President Trump is considering reversing recently raised tariffs, injecting uncertainty into the US Dollar and affecting market sentiment. • China’s Services PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.4, signaling steady economic growth and offering indirect support to the AUD through trade relations. • The upcoming ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change could influence the USD’s trajectory, shaping short-term movements in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching key economic and policy developments impacting the Australian Dollar and US Dollar. Australia’s better-than-anticipated Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% has strengthened optimism in the economy, while China’s better Services PMI indicates stable growth, indirectly benefiting the AUD. In contrast, uncertainty surrounds US trade policy, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting that President Trump might roll back recently imposed tariffs, creating market volatility. With the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change due for release, investors are weighing the possible influence on the USD, which is still under pressure. These factors combined determine the short-term direction of AUD/USD, with traders keeping an eye on technical support and resistance levels. Australia’s robust Q4 GDP expansion and China’s better Services PMI underpin the Australian Dollar, while uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy continues to keep the USD under pressure. Market participants are looking for pivotal US economic data releases, including ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, to gauge the influence on AUD/USD momentum. • Q4 2024 GDP expanded 0.6% QoQ, above market expectations and further underpinning economic resilience. • The USD is under pressure with market sentiment weighed down by economic uncertainties and trade policy issues. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted Trump might revisit recently imposed tariffs, injecting volatility in the forex market. • The sudden spike to 51.4 indicates consistent economic growth, implicitly backing the Australian Dollar. • Speculators look out for confirmation of releases of major US economic data to determine the short-term direction of the USD. • The two trade close to 0.6260, with support at 0.6271 (nine-day EMA) and possible downside towards 0.6187. • Global trade uncertainty and economic data continue to play a crucial role in driving movements of the forex market, determining AUD/USD trends. The Australian Dollar continues to be strong amidst major economic events and international trade uncertainties. Australia’s GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4 was above market forecasts, indicating the strength of the economy despite global difficulties. Also, China’s better-than-anticipated Services PMI at 51.4 indicates consistent growth, indirectly favoring the AUD because of robust trade relations between the two countries. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still evaluating economic risks, with policymakers keeping a close eye on inflation and labor market performance to inform future monetary policy. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade policy continues to be a pressing issue, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that President Trump might revisit the recently levied tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the trade actions has caused apprehension regarding their long-term effects on economic growth and global trade patterns. Additionally, the US suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, creating yet another layer of geopolitical stress for the market. While investors wait for major US economic releases, such as ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, sentiment in the market is subdued, with attention to economic stability and policy guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6260, with sideways action as the market conditions are evaluated by traders. The pair has immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6271, and a stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of about 0.6303. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, which reflects a risk-averse market sentiment with weak bullish pressure. On the negative side, the major support is at 0.6187, the four-week low seen on March 5. A fall below this level might trigger further drops to 0.6087. With future US economic data releases, AUD/USD price movements might experience greater volatility, impacting short-term technical trends. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) can witness further gains if economic data keeps supporting positive sentiment in the market. With Australia’s Q4 GDP beating forecasts and China’s economic data indicating resilience, the AUD has fundamentals to support gains. If risk sentiment remains steady globally and US economic worries continue, the AUD/USD currency pair can challenge resistance around 0.6300 in the near future. Also, any signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding holding or changing monetary policy could affect investor sentiment and add more support for the currency pair. Downside-wise, the AUD/USD pair remains susceptible to external threats from US trade policy and economic uncertainty in the world. If the US Dollar strengthens on more robust-than-anticipated economic news or a change in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the pair might experience fresh selling pressure. A breakdown below the key support of 0.6187 would initiate a more severe pullback to 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020. Also, geopolitical tensions, including the US suspension of military assistance to Ukraine, may enhance market volatility, which would trigger risk-off sentiment to weigh on the Australian Dollar.

Read More