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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Trump-Fed Spat and RBA Rate Cut Hints Determine Market Mood

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  • August 26, 2025
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AUD/USD pair increased slightly towards the all-important 0.6500 level on Tuesday after the US Dollar lost some ground following political upheaval at the Federal Reserve. President Trump sent a firing letter to Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage accusations, raising fears of Fed independence and generating weak selling pressure on the Greenback. At the same time, investors look forward to the US Durable Goods Orders data, which is predicted to decline moderately, as the Australian Dollar holds firm despite an early warning of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia later in the year. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s decision to end Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s term sparks renewed fears over central bank independence. • The Greenback weakens, and the DXY falls 0.2% to around 98.20, which provides a boost to AUD/USD. • July Durable Goods Orders are due, which are predicted to decline by 4% compared to June’s more severe 9.3% drop. • The minutes from the RBA foreshadow further interest rate cuts during the year, with judgments subject to data received and overseas threats. AUD/USD rose moderately towards the 0.6500 level on Tuesday as a weaker US Dollar came after President Trump suddenly tried to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage charges injected political and economic volatility. The move further subjected the independence of the Fed to new doubts, putting subtle pressure on the Greenback and enabling the Aussie to make inroads. Traders now look to the coming US Durable Goods Orders report, due to indicate a lower decrease versus June, while the Australian Dollar holds firm in spite of the RBA suggesting possible rate cuts later in the year. AUD/USD inched higher towards 0.6500 after the US Dollar weakened in response to Trump’s bid to sack Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sparking fears of Fed independence. Buyers now focus on US Durable Goods Orders data, with the RBA’s hint of future rate cuts keeping the Aussie in line. • AUD/USD inches closer to the 0.6500 level during Tuesday’s European session. • US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.2 to about 98.20, supporting the Aussie. • Trump seeks to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over suspected false mortgage reports. • Cook contests dismissal, insisting Trump lacks the legal power to remove her. • Fed independence is becoming increasingly cause for concern amid warnings of politcal interference. • Investors look to US Durable Goods Orders data to come through with a 4% drop for July. • RBA minutes indicate further interest rate cuts later in the year, although data will determine the pace. President Trump’s move to order Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook a termination letter created political controversy and reopened questions over the central bank’s independence. As Trump accused Cook of making false claims about mortgage arrangements, she dismissed the allegations and claimed that the President could not remove her. This action is part of Trump’s larger effort to have more control over the Fed, an organization he has often denounced for its policies, according to market observers and analysts. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting minutes revealed that officials remain open to additional interest rate cuts later this year. Policymakers emphasized that the timing and extent of these cuts will depend on the flow of economic data and global conditions. The RBA’s cautious but accommodative stance reflects concerns about growth and inflation, while leaving room to adjust policy based on evolving risks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is probing the psychological level around 0.6500, which has served as a pivot point in recent trading sessions. A break above this range could set the stage for further up-move towards near-term resistance levels, but its inability to stay above 0.6500 could lead to fresh selling interest. Market participants are taking keen interest in price action on this important level as it would decide short-term directional flow for the pair. FORECAST Should the US Dollar remain under selling pressure in face of political stress at the Fed and softer-than-anticipated US data, AUD/USD may gain traction above the 0.6500 level. A clean break higher would likely urge buyers to drive the pair towards near-term resistance levels, supported further if the RBA embraces a cautious rate cut pace. Conversely, any bounce of the Greenback on the back of better US economic data or reducing political turbulence would pressure the pair. Not being able to hold above the 0.6500 level could induce fresh selling, which could drive AUD/USD lower as markets also take into account the RBA’s inclination for further cuts in interest rate this year.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Investors Wait for Key US CPI and Treasury Sale

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  • June 11, 2025
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AUD/USD exchange rate remains close to the 0.6500 level as sentiment in the markets becomes guarded in the run-up to important US economic releases. Although initial expectations of a US-China trade agreement provided short-term relief to the Australian Dollar, diminishing faith in the permanence of the deal has resumed selling pressure. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar is capping the downside for the Aussie. Traders now look to the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a large 10-year Treasury Bond auction, both of which are likely to bring better guidance on the greenback and determine the next direction of the AUD/USD pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are closely monitoring the release of US Consumer Price Index data due out, with hopes of a modest increase in inflation having a potential influence on Federal Reserve policy and USD strength. • The $39 bln 10-year Treasury auction may tell us about investor faith in US fiscal soundness, with thin demand perhaps adding further pressure on the US Dollar. • There is still doubt over the long-term viability of the recent US-China trade deal, especially with regards to rare earth metals and tariffs, that may affect risk sentiment and commodity currencies such as the Aussie. • The pair is probing important psychological support around 0.6500; any drop below this level may unveil additional downside, while holding here may prompt short-term re-covering contingent on US data results. Australian Dollar traded weakly as dimming hopes for the preliminary US-China trade accord dragged market sentiment lower. While initial news of the agreement to roll back curbs on rare earth metals and lower tariffs initially boosted risk appetite, failure to provide tangible details has caused investors to doubt its sustainability. In the meantime, the US Dollar’s recent retreat has forestalled further losses for the Aussie and kept the AUD/USD pair close to the 0.6500 level. Market players now begin focusing on the next US CPI report and Treasury Bond auction, which are likely to be pivotal in setting the near-term direction of the currency pair. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6500 as markets wait for significant US economic releases. Dwindling faith in the US-China trade agreement has contained the gains in the Aussie, while a soft US Dollar provides some support. The release of US CPI and upcoming Treasury auction should determine the next course. • AUD/USD trades around 0.6500 in conservative market mood. • US-China trade deal optimism in early stages gives way to disappointment due to insufficient clear details. • Soft US Currency keeps the Australian Dollar from its deeper losses. • US Dollar Index withdraws back below 99.00 following recent highs. • Traders look for US CPI numbers, which are likely to reveal a slight increase in inflation. • A $39 bln US Treasury 10-year bond sale can dictate USD sentiment. • Major support for AUD/USD is at the 0.6500 psychological line. The Australian Dollar is being driven by changing global sentiment as investors absorb the latest news between China and the US. Both nations are reported to have agreed on a preliminary deal to relax rare metal trade restrictions and reduce some tariffs. Yet with scant official information, markets are holding back on jumping to conclusions about the long-term implications and durability of the deal. This doubt continues to drive investor behavior as they navigate the global dynamics of trade. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, eyes are shifting towards important coming events in the US that can potentially affect global financial markets. The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide valuable information on inflation trends, while the $39 billion auction of the 10-year Treasury bond can indicate investor sentiment towards US fiscal policy. Both events have the potential to move overall market mood and currency valuations, making them vital for traders to watch. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is trading close to the crucial psychological support of 0.6500. A consistent stay above this level might prompt buyers to aim for the immediate resistance near 0.6550, then the 0.6600 zone. On the bearish side, a clear break below 0.6500 might set the scene for lower levels towards 0.6450 and even 0.6400. Technical indicators on the shorter charts indicate a neutral to weak bearish slant, with the traders waiting for more decisive cues from future US data releases. FORECAST In the event of the US CPI releasing below market expectations or a muted pick-up, it could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. This would soften the US Dollar, supporting the AUD/USD to rise above the 0.6500 level. Anything positive on the US-China trade deal as well as any further clarification regarding the deal would enhance risk appetite, further supporting the Australian Dollar. On the other hand, if US inflation figures surprise to the upside, this can stoke anticipation of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, increasing the attractiveness of the US Dollar and applying downward pressure to AUD/USD. Additionally, poor demand for the US Treasury bond auction can fuel worries about US fiscal health, which could initially bring risk assets such as the Aussie under pressure. But ongoing uncertainty regarding the US-China trade deal would maintain the pair under selling pressure if investor sentiment remains uncertain.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Struggles Below 0.6300: Market Uncertainty and Technical Signals Shape the Outlook

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  • February 11, 2025
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The AUD/USD pair continues trading in a tight range below the 0.6300 mark, unable to gain upward momentum amid expectations for an RBA rate cut and escalating US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, bolstered by fears that potential Trump tariffs could be inflationary and keep the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, weighs on the Australian Dollar. The advance, however, faces technical issues, with the prices finding support above the 50-day SMA and oscillators turning positive. However, a decisive break above 0.6300 would confirm a bullish reversal, targeting 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. On the contrary, a break and failure to sustain support at 0.6235 might trigger further decline to 0.6140, 0.6085, and eventually to the psychological level of 0.6000, hence sustaining the downtrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will then gain a lot of buying pressure above 0.6300 and drive up towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455, as the bullish breakout takes place. • The on-going prospects of an RBA rate cut next week still weigh down the Aussie even when technical levels were widely signaling a recovery. • Geopolitical uncertainty and increased trade war tensions between the U.S. and China are the primary headwinds for AUD, stopping it from moving higher. • A stronger US Dollar, coupled with potential Trump tariffs and inflation concerns, will keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, thus further capping upside in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD continues trading in a tight range below 0.6300 as a variety of factors continue to affect the movement. Expectations for a RBA rate cut, as well as US-China trade tensions, are weighing on the Australian Dollar, thus capping its upside potential. Meanwhile, a stronger USD, which is driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on inflation, is keeping the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance intact. From a technical perspective, a decisive break above 0.6300 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the pair towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. But if support at 0.6235 fails to hold, then the AUD/USD may be seen further lower towards 0.6140, 0.6085, and the psychological 0.6000 level, thus continuing the bearish trend. The AUD/USD pair is struggling below 0.6300, driven down by RBA rate cut bets, US-China trade tensions, and a stronger USD. A break above 0.6300 will reportedly indicate recovery to 0.6365 and 0.6400, while a failure to hold 0.6235 support will push it down to 0.6140 and 0.6000. • The pair remains stuck in a tight trading range and struggles to pick up pace due to its uncertain economic and geopolitical background. • It is expected to continue hammering and attracting down the Australian Dollar amid speculations of an upcoming RBA rate cut. • The Aussie is under stress as trade tensions continue to hot up between the US and China, not allowing it to break out into key resistance levels. • Better still, the USD has firmed further due to the expectation that potential Trump tariffs may boost inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. • Additional gains above 0.6300 are required to confirm upward momentum; if so, targets are at 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. •  Further weakness towards 0.6140 and then down to 0.6085 and then 0.6000 is possible if AUD/USD does not hold onto any strength above 0.6235. • The 50-day SMA and improving oscillators suggest a possible bullish reversal, but confirmation is needed above 0.6300. The AUD/USD pair remains trapped below the 0.6300 mark, struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors. RBA rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Australian Dollar, as investors anticipate a potential policy easing next week. Furthermore, rising US-China trade tensions remain a significant headwind and keep the Aussie under pressure. In addition, a stronger US Dollar, due to the belief that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could push inflation and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, limits further upside for AUD/USD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a very tight range, with resistance near 0.6300 as investors weigh the impact of RBA rate cut speculation and US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, adds further pressure on the Aussie, limiting any meaningful upside. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50-day SMA. This means it has a chance of breaking out on the upside if it clears 0.6300. The targets for this are at 0.6365 and 0.6400. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is an indication that momentum may be changing. The oscillators on the daily chart are showing positive traction. The pair might see a bullish breakout if it sustains above the 0.6300 resistance level. A successful breach of this key level might send the pair toward 0.6365, 0.6400, and the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Failure to break higher may invite renewed selling pressure, with 0.6235 acting as immediate support. A drop below this level will speed up the downtrend to 0.6140, 0.6085 and the psychological mark of 0.6000. Traders should be focusing on these important levels for the confirmation of a major price movement. FORECAST AUD/USD pair might break out positively if it succeeds in staying above the resistance point of 0.6300. A decisive break below this important level would confirm a bullish reversal, with possible targets at 0.6365 and 0.6400, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Technical indicators, including oscillators gaining positive momentum, suggest that buying pressure could increase if the pair remains above its 50-day SMA. Any positive risk-aversion environment or easing US-China trade tension would further increase the Aussie price and push the pair to much higher levels. AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.6300, it can attract fresh sellings, pulling the pair south. The short-term support now lies at 0.6235. Break below this, and the downtrend could proceed towards 0.6140 and 0.6085. A stronger US Dollar, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and potential Trump tariffs, may continue to cap the Aussie’s gains. Additionally, growing concerns over an RBA rate cut could

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