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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthened as Chronic Inflation Threats and Global Tariff Disputes Persist

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  • July 9, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rise against the US Dollar (USD), fueled by chronic inflation threats highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and escalating global trade tensions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the ongoing influence of high labor costs and poor productivity on inflation, which is a signal of possible rate-cut delays. In the meantime, global sentiment is still risk-averse in the face of escalating US tariffs by President Trump, which involve steep tariffs on copper, drugs, and products of several countries. The AUD remains strong despite a stable US Dollar, riding on its strong trade relations with China and hope for China’s reforms. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is currently on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after it left rates unchanged at 3.85% despite speculation of a reduction. Risks to inflation may delay the easing. • The market is paying close attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes in anticipation of direction on the US Fed’s interest rate path and its implication for movement of USD. • US President Trump’s suggested 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, as well as sweeping levies against several nations, are contributing to worldwide trade tensions and affecting risk sentiment. • China’s PPI and CPI readings and widening offshore access to Chinese bond markets could have a major impact on AUD trends given Australia’s penetration of China economically. Australian Dollar is holding strong against the US Dollar, underpinned by ongoing inflation fears and guarded optimism over China’s economy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments on ongoing inflation on the back of higher labor costs and poor productivity have pushed back expectations of a near-future rate cut, despite market expectations of easing in August. While, in the meantime, growing trade tensions sparked by US President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy have unsettled global markets, AUD still stands to gain from its intimate trade correlation with China, particularly with China’s determination to open up its capital markets as well as rev up economic growth. Australian Dollar remains strong in the face of ongoing inflation risks highlighted by the RBA and rising global trade tensions. High fundamentals with China and hopes for economic reforms keep AUD fundamentals strong. Markets now look to FOMC Minutes for further guidance. • AUD/USD rallies for a second consecutive session, buoyed by Australian inflation concerns. •  RBA maintains interest rates at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a 25 bps reduction, due to persisting inflation risks. •  Governor Michele Bullock says that high labor costs and poor productivity may sustain inflation at elevated levels. •  China’s CPI increases by 0.1% YoY, some good news for Australia’s export-oriented economy. •  Trump imposes new tariffs, including a 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, escalating global trade tensions. • US Dollar holds firm, with attention turning to the next FOMC Minutes for guidance on policy. • Technicals are bullish, with AUD/USD eyeing resistance around 0.6535 and maybe even 0.6590. The Australian Dollar is strengthening after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hints at ongoing inflation threats through high unit labor costs and reducing productivity. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed that the full effects of past interest rate reductions are yet to be realized, and thereby advised caution before making any further monetary policy moves. Though market players and key Australian banks had been expecting a rate cut, the central bank’s resolve to remain tight shows it is serious about fighting inflation. This move mirrors the RBA’s focus on long-term price stability and its resolve to watch more data before policy changes. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In international news, increased trade tensions initiated by US President Donald Trump’s confrontational tariff policy are driving economic uncertainty. New taxes on a broad array of imports—ranging from copper and pharmaceuticals to imports from several countries—are likely to remake world supply chains and affect trade flows. Under these circumstances, Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China is even more important, particularly as China introduces reforms to increase investment access and compensate for export interruption. These economic and geopolitical changes are molding currency markets, with the Australian Dollar remaining robust in the midst of the global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a bullish inclination while trading around the 0.6530 level and holding tight in an upward sloping channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the midpoint 50, signaling fair bullish momentum. Though, the pair is now testing resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535. A clean break above this point could open the door towards the recent peak of 0.6590 and even beyond to higher levels around the top of the channel at 0.6680. Support on the downside is around 0.6510, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6475. FORECAST If the Australian Dollar can take out and hold above the short-term resistance level at 0.6535 (nine-day EMA), it would gain more bullish momentum. A successful breach above this level may take the AUD/USD pair towards the recent high of 0.6590, and potentially challenge the upper edge of the rising channel around 0.6680. Positive news from China’s economic sector or additional hawkish indications from the RBA would further push the Aussie Dollar higher. Conversely, a failure to clear 0.6535 could see a short-term pullback. The first support is at the lower border of the ascending channel at 0.6510, then the 50-day EMA at 0.6475. A firm break below these could turn sentiment bearish, bringing the pair towards the two-month low of 0.6372. Increased tensions in global trade or a slightly firmer-than-expected US Dollar due to the FOMC Minutes could hasten this decline.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stable as Market Mood Buoys, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Center Stage

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  • July 1, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is stable versus US Dollar (USD) as better global risk appetite and encouraging Chinese factory data offset domestic economic worries. Market mood improved after reports indicated the US is tapering its expectations for trade negotiations, which dampened concerns of aggressive tariffs. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to deteriorate amid increasing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and increasing fiscal worries. The stronger-than-forecast Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China also boosted optimism about Australia’s export outlook, given the nations’ high level of trade dependence. Traders now look ahead to the next US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The June PMI is closely watched by traders, which may have an impact on Fed policy expectations and affect the direction of the USD. • Continued deterioration in inflation trends and conflicting cues from Fed officials remain a drag on the US Dollar. • The stronger-than-forecasted Caixin and NBS PMIs in China could underpin the AUD because of the solid trade relationship between the two countries. • AUD/USD is trading close to 0.6560 with major resistance at 0.6583 and support of about 0.6529, which is having an impact on short-term market momentum. Australian Dollar is continuing to hold firm against the US Dollar on the back of enhanced global risk appetite and better-than-forecast Chinese manufacturing figures. Optimism increased after news suggested the US would tone down its ambitious tariff ambitions, easing fears of a full-blown trade war. Although Australia’s local manufacturing PMI was weak, China’s rebound in Caixin PMI offset positively because of the close economic relationships between the nations. The US Dollar remains under downward pressure in the meantime with Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and increasing fiscal worries. With investors awaiting the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI later on, it may give new indication of the US economic environment and further drive AUD/USD dynamics. Australian Dollar stabilizes with better risk mood and higher Chinese manufacturing figures. Fiscal worries and Fed policy uncertainty hold back the US Dollar as major US ISM PMI data looms. • News that the US might seek phasing out tariffs in deals has alleviated trade war concerns, boosting overall market sentiment and propelling the Australian Dollar. • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI surged to 50.4 in June (48.3), indicating growth and firming up demand for Australian exports. • Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6, its lowest output reading since February, moderating—but not reversing—AUD momentum. • Increasing unease regarding Federal Reserve rate cut timing and concerns about a $3.3 trillion US fiscal package continue the US Dollar’s losing streak. • Traders are presently laser focused on the June ISM report; a surprise either direction could dictate the next short term path for AUD/USD. • The pair is quoted around 0.6560 in an uptrending channel; major resistance is at 0.6583/0.6650, whereas support is at 0.6529 (9 day EMA) and 0.6490. • Divergent signals—from Kashkari’s call for two 2025 cuts to Powell’s caution on tariff driven inflation—keep policy expectations volatile, influencing USD sentiment and, by extension, AUD/USD moves. The Australian Dollar is holding firm as global market sentiment improves, largely driven by easing trade tensions and stronger economic signals from China. Reports the US might ease its stance on trade talks by looking for phased agreements boosted investor sentiment and diminished the immediate danger of severe tariffs. The news comes as a welcome relief to jumpy markets that have been spooked by the chronic ambiguities in global trade. Also, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI reported a significant bounce in June, indicating a possible improvement in industrial activity. With the close trade relationship that Australia shares with China, good Chinese data tends to reflect positively on both the Australian economy and the Australian dollar. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the US Dollar still weakens with increasing fears regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy and America’s fiscal issues. As much as inflation is in focus, mixed statements among Fed officials have made uncertain the timing and size of possible interest rate reductions. Adding to the uncertainty is a broad tax and spending plan under consideration in the US Senate that would sharply accelerate the national debt. All these factors combined have undermined the US Dollar’s attractiveness, allowing the Australian Dollar space to regain and consolidate even with slightly weaker local manufacturing data. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar continues to be underpinned by more favorable global market sentiment and supportive news from China despite some weakness in local numbers. Optimism in markets was further fueled after reports emerged that the US is set to embrace phased trade deals instead of aggressive tariff plans, which dampened geopolitical tensions. In addition, China’s better-than-forecast Caixin Manufacturing PMI supported optimism about regional economic stability, to the advantage of Australia since they have robust trade relations. In contrast, the US Dollar is weakened by increasing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy moves and rising concern about widening fiscal deficits, also serving to support the Australian Dollar’s strength. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may have further room for gains if there is continued improvement in world risk appetite and supportive Chinese economic statistics. Favorable news on US trade policy, specifically the change in trend towards phased tariffs agreements, could diminish geopolitical risk and improve investor sentiment. If future US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, indicate softening growth, it could add to expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions, which would put further bearish pressure on the US Dollar and push AUD/USD higher. Further evidence of solid Chinese manufacturing activity and steady Australian inflation rates would also be bullish for the Aussie. On the negative, the Australian Dollar can be put under pressure if local economic data, such as retail sales and employment figures, discourage in the next few weeks. Also, if the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is stronger than anticipated, it might briefly strengthen the US Dollar by dampening rate cut expectations. Political events, including heightened tensions between the US and China or doubts regarding Australia’s fiscal prospects, may also reduce investor

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges on Ceasefire Hope and Weaker Inflation Figures

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  • June 25, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, supported by the removal of geopolitical risk and weaker-than-anticipated domestic inflation figures. The U.S. President Trump-announced Israel-Iran ceasefire improved risk appetite in the world and weakened the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, underpinning the risk-sensitive AUD. Meanwhile, Australia’s May CPI rose by 2.1% year-over-year, below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in July. As markets price in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut, the AUD/USD pair climbed above 0.6500, showing persistent bullish momentum backed by favorable technical indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are implying an 80% chance of a 25bps rate cut after softer-than-anticipated CPI numbers and lackluster GDP readings. • The AUD is also reactive to geopolitics; any continuation in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire can continue to support risk appetite. • Comments from Fed Chair Powell imply no near-term rate cuts, but mixed comments from other Fed officials can bring volatility to the USD. • AUD/USD is threatened by resistance at the June 16 high, with a breach above potentially validating sustained bullish momentum. The Australian Dollar continues to appreciate against the US Dollar on the back of calming geopolitical tensions and weakening domestic inflation data. Global risk sentiment has been aided in recent days by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has diminished the safe-haven characteristics of the USD and increased the risk-sensitive AUD. At the same time, Australia’s May CPI was lower than forecast at 2.1% year-over-year, affirming the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations as early as July. While markets are price-accustomed for monetary easing and technicals are reflecting bullish strength, the AUD/USD pair is holding strongly north of the 0.6500 level. Australian Dollar extends gains on better risk sentiment after the Israel-Iran ceasefire and lower Australian inflation numbers. The markets now price in a July rate cut from the RBA, with AUD/USD breaking above the 0.6500 mark. Technicals still show bullish momentum. • AUD/USD rises above 0.6500 on improved risk appetite and declining geopolitical tensions. • Israel-Iran ceasefire improves market mood, deters safe-haven US Dollar. • Australia’s May CPI increased 2.1% YoY, weaker than expected 2.3% and previous 2.4%, making rate cut expectations more certain. • 80% probability of 25bps RBA rate reduction in July are priced in by markets, with combined 73bps cuts being expected by the end of the year. • Fed Chair Powell indicates delayed rate cuts, likely in Q4, while other Fed officials are less clear in their views. • AUD/USD remains above the 9-day EMA, with buy signals from RSI and ascending channel pattern. • Major resistance at 0.6552 and 0.6570, with nearest support at 0.6486 and 0.6450. The Australian Dollar remains firm, boosted by better global risk appetite and a weaker inflation outlook domestically. The news that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has relaxed geopolitical tensions and generated hope in financial markets. This has caused demand for the safe-haven currency like the US Dollar to fall, boosting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. The ceasefire has also brought optimism for possible diplomatic advancements, including resumption of nuclear negotiations, further bolstering market confidence. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Locally, the economic figures from Australia have lent further support to the Aussie Dollar. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, softer than forecast. This combined with earlier published subpar GDP readings has helped fuel market expectations of a July interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Market participants now price in several rate cuts by year-end. The mutual support of reducing inflation pressures and a favorable international environment has assisted in maintaining the recent trend of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair continues to have a bullish bias since it trades above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and continues to be within an uptrend channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 level but has not entered the overbought zone, signaling improving positive momentum without reaching overbought levels. If the pair sustains its move above 0.6500, it could retest the recent high of 0.6552, followed by potential resistance near 0.6570. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486, with further downside limited by the lower channel boundary and the 50-day EMA near 0.6450–0.6438. FORECAST If the bullish pressure persists, AUD/USD is set to revisit the recent high of 0.6552, the seven-month high. Breaking above it could pave the way for a move towards the upper edge of the rising channel of about 0.6570. On-going risk-on appetite, combined with hopes of policy easing from RBA, could continue to propel price higher, especially if geopolitical tensions remain mild and market optimism continues to increase. On the flip side, if the pair does not hold above 0.6500, near-term support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486. A strong break below here might turn bearish momentum, taking AUD/USD to the lower end of the rising channel at 0.6450. Lower levels may be seen testing the 50-day EMA at 0.6438, if US Dollar demand picks up with the release of better economic data or with dovish Fed speak.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises as Ceasefire Expectations and Confident China Data Lift Risk Mood

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  • June 16, 2025
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Australian Dollar rallied as positive risk mood emerged from possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East with rocket exchanges between Iran and Israel. Optimistic economic readings from Australia’s most important trading partner, China, further supported the AUD, as Retail Sales exceeded forecasts at 6.4% year-on-year in May. While the US Dollar dipped after mixed economic data involving below-forecast Producer Price Index (PPI) growth and increase in consumer sentiment, the AUD/USD currency pair has a bullish trend inside an uptrend channel, but is near-term capped by resistance at 0.6495, with firmer barriers at recent highs, while risks are lower if levels of support get breached. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a hostage release may result in a short-term ceasefire, boosting global risk sentiment and favoring the Australian Dollar. •  Better-than-anticipated Retail Sales expansion in China to 6.4% YoY paints a favorable picture for Australia’s export-oriented economy, although uncertainties are in place due to possible trade policy changes. •  Ongoing Iranian-Israeli missile exchanges maintain geopolitical risks in a heightened state, which can affect safe-haven flows and currency market volatility. •  Weaker US PPI and improving consumer sentiment are likely to impact the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions, with markets presently pricing in a future rate cut within a month. Australian Dollar is supported by improving global risk sentiment as fresh optimism for a ceasefire in Israel-Hamas conflict continues with tensions in the Middle East. Strong economic news from China, Australia’s key trade partner, also supports the Aussie, with Retail Sales in May coming in stronger than predicted at 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell slightly following mixed economic data, such as softer-than-anticipated Producer Price Index (PPI) data and an improvement in consumer sentiment, affecting market sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. Even with the positive backdrop, geopolitical tensions and future US monetary policy actions remain a challenge for the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar finds support on improving risk mood fueled by prospects of possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Sustained Chinese Retail Sales strength adds to the momentum for the Aussie, although mixed US economic data deters the US Dollar. Nevertheless, middle-east tension and looming Fed actions retain market uncertainty. • Australian Dollar rallies on improved risk mood on expectations of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. • China’s Retail Sales increased 6.4% YoY in May, topping consensus and underpinning Australia’s trade outlook. • Middle East tensions continue, with Iran and Israel trading missile strikes in defiance of international appeals for diplomacy. • US Dollar tumbles as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI were softer than anticipated. • US Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June, above the predicted 53.5. • Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates steady but could reduce rates by 25 basis points through September. • Technical picture for AUD/USD remains positive within the uptrend channel, with resistance at 0.6495 and support at 0.6470. The Australian Dollar is strengthening as world risk mood improves, mainly due to the advancement of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas. In spite of the continued hostilities, the likelihood of a temporary ceasefire has given financial markets a reprieve. Nevertheless, tensions continue to run high as Iran and Israel keep on trading missile attacks with each other, threatening wider regional stability. The crisis has attracted international attention, and the calls for diplomacy have grown louder as casualties mount on either side. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Another source of bullishness for the Australian Dollar is the recent announcement of better-than-forecast economic indicators from China, one of Australia’s most important trading partners. China’s Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-on-year in May, beating market forecasts and prior levels, marking robust domestic demand. At the same time, Industrial Production registered moderate expansion, boding well for a steady but conservative economic pace. These advancements combined with conflicting economic indications from the United States have provoked investors to adjust their anticipations regarding future Federal Reserve policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair maintains a positive bias since it remains trading within a rising channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the middleline at 50, pointing towards weak bullish momentum. Near-term resistance is close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6495, and additional resistance sits at the recent seven-month high of 0.6538. Support on the downside is the lower end of the bullish channel at approximately 0.6470, and a fall below here may undermine the bullish thesis with further losses towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6425. FORECAST If upbeat risk sentiment prevails, boosted by advancements in Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations and robust Chinese economic statistics, the AUD/USD currency pair might extend its upside through the near-term resistance at 0.6495. A continuous move upwards could then aim at the recent seven-month peak of 0.6538, and if bullish momentum intensifies, the pair might target the eight-month high of about 0.6687, then the upper side of the rising channel at 0.6730. To the negative, increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or any unforeseen slump in world risk appetite may pressure the AUD/USD pair. A fall below the 0.6470 support level, which is the lower boundary of the ascending channel, could induce further selling. In that event, the pair may retest the 50-day EMA at 0.6425, with further downside risks extending to the 0.6380 area should bearish sentiment intensify.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges in US Dollar Weakness and RBA Rate Reduction in Spite of Economic Uncertainties

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  • May 21, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied against the US Dollar (USD) in spite of increasing hopes of increased rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The US Dollar weakened in the wake of the US economic outlook uncertainty, falling business and consumer sentiments, and a recent credit rating downgrade of the US by Moody’s. The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA was considered a preemptive measure to bolster economic confidence, and Australian political change and favorable employment figures also supported the AUD. Technicals indicate further strength for AUD/USD, as key resistance and support levels are monitored closely by traders. In contrast, global trade tensions and China’s mixed economic signals remain to drive market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Monitor additional Fed commentary and releases of economic data, as doubts about decelerating growth and trade policy issues are maintaining pressure on the US Dollar. • Monitor near-term RBA comments and actions, as Governor Bullock’s remarks suggest additional rate cuts may be forthcoming pending economic developments. • Keep an eye on the AUD/USD pair at the major technical levels — support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6426 and resistance near the six-month peak of 0.6515 — that would determine short- to medium-term direction. • US-China trade news and Chinese economic indicators, particularly retail sales and industrial production, are still key to risk sentiment and the outlook for the AUD. Market players must pay close attention to statements by Federal Reserve officials as well as coming US economic reports since fears of decelerating growth and trade policy ambiguity continue to drag on the US Dollar. Future Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy actions, particularly any suggestions of additional rate reductions, will also be pivotal for the Australian Dollar’s direction. From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair’s movement around support at the nine-day EMA near 0.6426 and resistance at the six-month high of 0.6515 will likely dictate short- to medium-term momentum. Additionally, ongoing developments in US-China trade relations and China’s economic performance remain key factors influencing risk sentiment and the broader currency market outlook. Monitor Fed cues and US economic indicators as they keep pushing the US Dollar. Future RBA rate decisions and technical levels of 0.6426 and 0.6515 will dictate AUD/USD direction. US-China trade news and China’s economic indicators continue to be significant for market mood in the meantime. • The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied despite ongoing predictions of additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. •   The US Dollar (USD) lost ground as fears of slower US economic growth and falling business and consumer confidence took its toll. •  Moody’s reduced the US credit rating, putting further pressure on the USD as federal debt forecasts rose. •  The RBA lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points, calling it a preemptive action to enhance economic optimism. •  Australian political turmoil and robust employment rates sustained the AUD’s strength. •  Technical analysis indicates AUD/USD is trading above major moving averages, with resistance at 0.6515 and support at 0.6426. •  Persistent US-China trade tensions and China’s mixed economic reports continue to dictate risk sentiment and currency trends. The Australian Dollar has remained resilient against a tough global economic environment, appreciating as worries mount about the economic prospects of the US. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to weakening consumer and business sentiment, driven in part by uncertainty around US trade policy and persistent geopolitical tensions. Moody’s recent credit rating downgrade of the US also reduced optimism regarding the US Dollar, as climbing federal debt and budget deficits create long-term concerns. At the same time, China’s rebuke of US trade restrictions and its uneven economic readings contribute to the multifaceted global trade landscape, shaping investor outlook. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Australia, the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank was presented as a preemptive move to enhance confidence and respond to prevailing economic conditions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that the bank stands prepared to make additional action if necessary to control inflation and drive growth. Political developments in Australia, as well as better-than-anticipated jobs data, have also seen a positive domestic environment contribute to a strengthened Australian Dollar despite broader worldwide uncertainty and changing trade tensions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is indicating sustained bullish momentum as it continues to trade above significant moving averages, and this suggests that there is bullish sentiment among the traders. The pair is receiving support close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and this is serving as a short-term support, whereas resistance points around near-term highs are being monitored closely for possible breakouts. Momentum gauges, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are still higher above neutral ground, indicating that buyers are in control right now. But a firm break below these support points may indicate a change in momentum and higher risks of decline in the near term. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may continue to strengthen if the US Dollar continues to be under pressure due to ongoing economic issues and dovish Federal Reserve hints. US-China trade negotiation positives or more-than-anticipated economic news from Australia, like jobs or inflation data, might support investor sentiment in the AUD. Moreover, if the RBA telegraphs a rate cut halt or suggests stabilizing monetary policy, it might support the currency’s bullish momentum and drive the AUD/USD currency pair towards recent resistance levels. On the negative side, heightened concerns on the global economic outlook or rising geopolitical tensions might deter the Australian Dollar, considering its risk sensitivity. If the RBA hints at more forceful rate reductions amid softer local growth or weakening inflation data, the AUD might lose ground. In addition, any weakening of US-China trade relations or Chinese economic data that is less than expected would temper demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD, and cause a pullback to major support levels.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Finds Strength As Firm Domestic Jobs Data and Lessening Global Trade Tensions Boost AUD vs. USD

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  • May 15, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining strength versus the US Dollar (USD) as better-than-anticipated domestic jobs data and lessening global trade tensions provide support. In April, Australia created 89,000 jobs—well above the predicted 20,000—while unemployment remained at 4.1%. This strong labor market performance, combined with the easing of US-China trade tensions and the removal of tariffs, has strengthened risk appetite among investors, underpinned demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie. Despite softening market expectations for interest rate reductions by both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6440 and could retest key levels of resistance if good momentum persists. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets currently anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower the cash rate to approximately 3.1% by the end of the year, with a 25-basis-point reduction most likely at the next policy meeting. Any variation from this might affect AUD performance. • Traders will watch closely for the next US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases for April, which might change sentiment around the US Dollar and affect AUD/USD movement. • The initial US-China tariff rollback deal is improving risk sentiment; further advances—or setbacks—have a real chance of influencing the Australian Dollar in a substantial way. • AUD/USD is reaching pivotal resistance at 0.6515. A sustained break above this level would serve to induce further advancement towards the seven-month high of 0.6687. Australian Dollar’s direction will depend on a number of crucial factors. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy decision is in sharp focus, as markets are pricing a 25-basis-point rate cut, although better domestic data might alter the bank’s tone. On the international front, de-escalating US-China trade tensions remain supportive of risk appetite, but any reversal has the potential to easily spoil AUD gains. Meanwhile, future US economic data such as Retail Sales and PPI levels may influence Federal Reserve rate expectations and put downward pressure on the US Dollar. Technically, AUD/USD is capped by resistance at around 0.6515; a firm breakout above this level may lead to further gains to 0.6687. Australian Dollar’s tone is still underpinned by robust job statistics and declining global trade tensions. Market attention now turns to the next RBA policy meeting and major US economic data. A break above 0.6515 would suggest further strength in AUD/USD. • Australia created 89,000 jobs in April, much more than the predicted 20,000, as the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. • AUD/USD pair retraced around 0.6440 amid solid employment data and risk-on appetite. • Global trade tensions relaxed with the US and China agreeing to reverse tariffs, boosting investor sentiment. • US Dollar Index (DXY) lost strength, trading at 100.90 levels as investors wait for Retail Sales and PPI data. • Wage Price Index in Australia increased 3.4% YoY in Q1 2025, above forecast, indicating wage growth recovery. • Markets now anticipate the RBA to reduce rates to 3.1% by the end of the year, although robust data could impact future actions. • Major resistance for AUD/USD is at 0.6515, with possible upside to 0.6687 if bullish momentum prevails. Australian Dollar is being supported by robust domestic economic indicators and strengthening global trade conditions. April’s employment report was marked by a staggering increase of 89,000 jobs, well surpassing forecasts and highlighting the strength of Australia’s labor market. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, following sustained stability in the employment sector. There were also positive developments in wage growth, with the Wage Price Index increasing 3.4% over the past year in the first quarter of 2025, rebounding from deceleration in earlier quarters. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Globally, alleviating US-China trade tensions have helped instill a better mood in the market, stimulating appetite for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar. An initial agreement to ease tariffs on both sides has abated fears of extended economic tensions, lifting world trade sentiment. At the same time, changing expectations regarding US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts are influencing investor mood, with markets waiting eagerly for further direction from future economic statistics and central bank announcements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is displaying bullish momentum, trading well above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately 0.6429. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still well above the neutral 50 threshold, which suggests persistent buying interest. Should the pair hold above near-term support levels, it may gather energy for a possible push towards past highs. Failure to stay above critical moving averages will, however, undermine the short-term outlook and invite more consolidation. FORECAST Australian Dollar stands to gain from continued strengthening of Australia’s economic fundamentals and relaxing global trade tensions. If domestic statistics continue to impress and risk appetite is high, the AUD/USD exchange rate is likely to test higher prices, possibly retesting levels encountered in late 2024. Continued improvement in wage growth and a firming labor market could further add to investor confidence, promoting a more vigorous rally in the near term. Even with upbeat sentiment, the Australian Dollar is exposed to threats from possible changes in global economic trends and monetary policy. Deterioration in US-China relations or weaker-than-anticipated economic news out of Australia or its key trading partners would dampen sentiment. Moreover, if the Reserve Bank of Australia hints at a more conservative rate-cut policy or US economic signals provoke a relief rally in the US Dollar, the AUD/USD pair may face downward pressure, testing major supports.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengths on US-China Trade Tensions and Critical Economic Data on the Horizon

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  • May 13, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained strength against the US Dollar (USD) after a bounce back in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which climbed 2.2% in May after plummeting the month before. This follows as the US Dollar comes under pressure prior to the announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. Market sentiment for a less hawkish approach by the Federal Reserve, along with the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, has resulted in the AUD/USD pair’s recovery. But even as the pair experienced such positive momentum, technical indicators lean towards a bearish forecast for the pair, with important support levels looming ahead, reflecting the continued uncertainty in global trade flows and domestic policy. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The advance US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will play a significant role in determining market sentiment regarding upcoming Federal Reserve policy. Economists expect an inflation rebound, and it may have an impact on the US Dollar, thereby influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate. • The continuing trade negotiations between China and the US continue to be a key driver. While there has been a tentative deal to lower tariffs, any developments in these negotiations or comments by US officials could affect global market mood and the AUD. •  With prospects for the RBA to lower rates in the near future, market players need to carefully observe any shift in RBA communication or announcements, especially at its next policy meeting, which could make a difference to the strength of the AUD. • Continuous indicators from large economies, such as China’s deteriorating CPI and PPI levels, and Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index, will give the world economic landscape and influence trade-sensitive currency sentiment such as that of the AUD. With the Australian Dollar strengthening against the US Dollar, market sentiment is influenced by a number of key determinants. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April will be pivotal, with inflation expectations potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions and the USD’s direction. Trade talks between the US and China, particularly the reduction of tariffs, are another major focus, as any changes in this relationship could significantly impact global market dynamics and the AUD. Also adding to the volatility in the AUD/USD exchange rate is the expectation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the coming short term. With worldwide economic data, such as the slowing down of China’s CPI and PPI figures, also fuelling the uncertainty, market observers need to remain on their toes for any news that will trigger further Aussie dollar volatility. Australian Dollar has strengthened versus the US Dollar, backed by encouraging news out of Australia and a de-escalation of US-China tensions. Key observations to keep in mind include the forthcoming US CPI report, whether Federal Reserve policy will shift, and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate moves, all of which may have a bearing on the direction of AUD. • The AUD has appreciated against the US Dollar on the back of strong Australian economic data and increasing consumer confidence. • The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is due out soon and has the potential to influence significantly market expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding interest rates. • An initial US-China trade agreement that lowers tariffs would lower global trade tensions and could impact market sentiment. • As inflation and unemployment worries persist, the Federal Reserve policy direction will continue to be a dominant force in determining the strength of the US Dollar. • Expectations are building for the RBA to lower interest rates in its next meeting, which would drag on the AUD. • Chinese data, a third month of CPI fall in a row, indicates continued economic weakness that can affect the wider market. • The AUD/USD currency pair is probing significant technical levels, with support at the 50-day EMA and resistance at the nine-day EMA, indicating possible price volatility. Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained strong against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of a positive change in consumer sentiment in Australia, as indicated by the rebound in the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index. This is at a time when relaxing trade tensions between the US and China have also given a boost to confidence in global markets. The initial trade agreement, which features tariff reduction, portends stability in trade between the two global economic powerhouses, a development important to Australia as much as it would be to the United States, given its robust bilateral economic relations with China. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the near term, market participants are looking to the next US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, which may bring more clarity to inflation trends and have implications for future Federal Reserve policy. Furthermore, hopes for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in the near term are creating a degree of uncertainty around the Australian Dollar’s outlook. As more economic data from across the globe pours in, led by China, these events will be instrumental in determining market mood and guiding the movements of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair has been experiencing some resistance at around the 0.6400 level, with it trading just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite the recent rally, the pair is still trading below this near-term moving average, which means that the trend is bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen below the neutral 50 level, adding to the bearish sentiment. The key support is at the 50-day EMA level of 0.6344, and a fall below this level may indicate further downside potential. But if the pair can break above the 0.6400 resistance level, it may test the six-month high of 0.6515, indicating a possible change in momentum. FORECAST Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be supported by upbeat economic data and the de-escalation of global trade tensions, the AUD/USD currency pair may extend its gains. A breakout

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthens on Economic Data and Political Advances, US Dollar Under Pressure Before ISM Services PMI

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  • May 5, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to build strength against the US Dollar (USD) based on a mix of favorable economic data and political advances in Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s success in being re-elected with a second consecutive three-year term has lifted investors’ confidence, while inflation information such as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI exhibited ongoing economic growth. Moreover, a robust trade surplus and favourable retail sales were further bolstering the AUD. While that is happening, the US Dollar has come under pressure from markets waiting for the ISM Services PMI and weighing the role of President Trump’s position regarding Federal Reserve policies and global trade. With the AUD/USD pair trading close to five-month highs, the market continues to await future economic news and geopolitical events for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next US ISM Services PMI will be an important sign of economic wellbeing and may have an effect on the US Dollar direction. The market will be looking for surprises that can move market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. • Ongoing inflation pressures in Australia, such as the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI, can shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy actions in the future. Market expectations of an impending May rate cut might change pending these developments. • Continued trade negotiations and future tensions between the US and China may bear down on the Australian Dollar, considering Australia’s close trading relationships with China. Any intensification of trade tensions would be detrimental to AUD sentiment. •  Re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may have an impact on economic policy, including cost-of-living relief, support for renewable energy, and tax cuts. These actions may, however, contribute to inflationary pressure, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy easing room. Australian Dollar (AUD) is set for further strength due to favorable economic indicators and the political stability delivered by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s re-election. These key indicators to look out for are the US ISM Services PMI, which may decide the direction of the US Dollar, and Australian inflation pressures, which may drive the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest-rate approach. As well, continuing US-China trade tensions are on high alert status for the AUD due to Australian dependence on trade with China. Albanese’s second term may bring about fresh economic policies, like cost-of-living assistance and tax reductions, although these policies are likely to drive inflation, impacting monetary policy in the future. Investors will be watching closely these events for more information on the AUD/USD forecast. Australian Dollar is strengthening on a backdrop of favorable economic data and Prime Minister Albanese’s re-election, with inflationary pressure and possible US-China trade tensions continuing to pose the biggest risks. Markets will remain attentive to the US ISM Services PMI and the RBA’s reaction to changing economic fundamentals for further guidance. •  The AUD is appreciating against the US Dollar, buoyed by good economic news and political stability after Prime Minister Albanese’s re-election. •  Albanese’s second term in office guarantees a responsible government with an agenda of cost-of-living relief, renewable energy, and healthcare, which may affect inflation. •  The TD-MI Inflation Gauge and the Judo Bank Composite PMI point to accelerating inflation and ongoing economic growth, which could affect the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy. •  Australia’s high trade surplus, rising exports, and growth in retail sales add to the positive AUD sentiment, even though retail sales did not meet expectations. •  The coming US ISM Services PMI will be important in deciding the direction of the US Dollar and might influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. •  Persistent trade tensions and trade negotiations between China and the US might harm the AUD, as Australia has close economic relations with China. •  Markets are anticipating a possible 25-basis-point rate reduction by the RBA in May, driven by both domestic economic conditions and international drivers such as US tariffs, ignoring inflationary pressures. Australian Dollar has been strengthened by upbeat economic news and political stability as a result of the re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. His election has lifted investor optimism with the pledge of a government committed to tackling cost-of-living, renewable energy, and prioritizing health and tax cuts. These policies, as much as they are good for the people, may also generate inflationary pressures and hinder the Reserve Bank of Australia in reducing interest rates in the near term. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In addition to political stability, economic figures for Australia have also been positive. The nation experienced a strong trade surplus as well as an increase in retail sales, although this fell slightly short of projections. With inflationary pressures building, the Australian economy continues to grow, underpinned by upbeat business attitudes as well as robust export performance. Meanwhile, external factors such as the US’s stance on trade with China and the possible effect of future US economic reports may also dictate global market sentiment, making the performance of AUD an interest to monitor in the next few weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is holding a bullish inclination, trading near 0.6460 and staying above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating continued upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still well above 50, further affirming the robustness of the prevailing trend. On the higher side, the pair may reach the five-month high of 0.6515, while the psychological mark of 0.6600 is also possible. The initial support comes in the form of the nine-day EMA at 0.6408, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6326. A break below these levels could undermine the bullish forecast, leaving the pair vulnerable to lower levels like 0.5914, the lowest level since March 2020. FORECAST Australian Dollar can be anticipated to continue its rally in the near term, potentially reaching the five-month high of 0.6515. Positive economic data from Australia, such as robust trade figures, retail sales, and ongoing growth in business activity, form a strong basis for further

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure as US-China Trade Tensions and Global Economic Sentiment Weigh In

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  • April 11, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be under pressure as rising US-China trade tensions and soft global economic signals continue to bear down on investor sentiment. The White House confirmation that US tariffs on Chinese imports have risen to 145% has further fueled risk aversion, hurting the AUD because of Australia’s high trade exposure with China. Although the AUD was given temporary support by reports of renewed trade talks with the European Union, subdued local sentiment and forecasts of Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts still weigh on its outlook. The US Dollar also has headwinds to contend with from softening inflation and general doubts regarding economic growth, keeping the AUD/USD currency pair highly volatile around significant technical levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • The series of ongoing tariffs increases and trade barriers between the US and China remains a major threat to the Australian Dollar, as Australia has close trade connections with China. • Markets are factoring in as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia from May, which has the potential to put additional pressure on the AUD if it materializes. •  The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures will determine USD strength and, consequently, the AUD/USD exchange rate. •  The AUD/USD is trading around 0.6190, supported by the 9-day EMA (0.6167) and capped by the 50-day EMA (0.6260). A break in either direction may determine the short-term trend. Investors are scrutinizing closely a handful of important variables that have the potential to define the near-term path of the Australian Dollar. The escalating US-China trade war, characterized by high tariff increases and retaliatory actions, remains a strong burden on the AUD because of Australia’s trade reliance on China. Simultaneously, rate cut expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia are contributing to the currency’s negative outlook, with markets predicting a dovish turn as soon as May. Globally, focus shifts to coming US economic data such as the PPI and consumer sentiment figures that could drive the US Dollar and in turn the AUD/USD. Technically, the pair’s position close to key moving averages implies volatility in the offing with support at 0.6167 and resistance around 0.6260 set to dictate market direction. The Australian Dollar is under downward pressure due to heightened US-China trade tensions and RBA rate-cut expectations. Market direction in the near term is sought by traders in terms of key US economic statistics and technical thresholds at 0.6167 and 0.6260. • The US imposed additional tariffs of 145% on Chinese products, fueling the trade war and affecting global trade patterns. • Australia’s strong trade relationship with China exposes its economy and currency to being affected by disruption in China’s trade landscape. • China responded by boosting tariffs on 84% of US imports and blacklisting six US firms, ratcheting up trade tensions. • Australia will resume trade talks with the European Union with the objective of deepening and diversifying its trade relationships. • China showed interest in further developing trade and investment relationships with the EU as it pursues stability against increasing US tensions. • Sluggish consumer and business confidence is driving anticipation of a dovish move from the Reserve Bank of Australia. • Easing inflation and mixed economic data in the US are contributing to uncertainty and conservative market sentiment on the global stage. The Australian Dollar is under sustained pressure as tensions in international trade rise, especially between China and the United States. The announcement by the White House that US tariffs on Chinese exports have risen to 145% has increased anxiety on international trade stability. The issue is particularly pertinent for Australia, considering that it has strong economic relations with China. The ongoing conflict instills apprehension about diminished demand for Australian exports, leading to a conservative outlook for the currency. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Domestically, Australian consumer and business confidence is underpinned by weak sentiment, which supports the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia might pursue a more dovish monetary policy stance in the months ahead. In the US, meanwhile, inflation data provided indicators that eased, while policymakers there are also watchful about striking a balance between growth and price stability. As global and local uncertainties are played out, markets will be keeping a keen eye on economic resilience signs and central bank policy reactions globally. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is trading close to 0.6190 with limited momentum as it continues to range about vital short-term moving averages. While the pair had a momentary respite, indicators point to the fact that market sentiment is still guarded. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is languishing beneath the neutral 50 mark, signaling that there is no strong bullish sentiment. A protracted move in either direction might determine the direction for the next leg, with traders keeping a close eye on confirmation signs from wider market indicators and economic data. FORECAST Australian Dollar might get some support if Australia can restart trade talks with the European Union successfully, which would be a possible investment sentiment booster. Encouraging trends in China’s bid to increase trade with the EU could also calm regional trade sentiment, positively affecting the AUD indirectly. In addition, if US economic releases later this week fail to impress or if the Federal Reserve provides hints of a more conservative strategy in tightening, the US Dollar could lose strength, allowing space for a slight rebound in the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar could experience more downward pressure in the short term because of the increasing tensions between China and the US, which threaten Australia’s export-oriented economy. With China raising tariffs on US products and blacklisting US businesses, the uncertainty in global trade could limit demand for Australian commodities. Moreover, poor local sentiment and increased expectations of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia may add to the drag on the AUD, leaving it exposed to falling if global risk aversion continues to intensify.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Remains Steady Despite Budget Release and Global Economic Unrest

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  • March 25, 2025
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The Australian Dollar stabilised after Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ release of the 2025/26 budget, which outlined anticipated deficits of A$27.6 billion in 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion in 2025-26, in addition to tax cuts to spur economic stimulus. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s restraint regarding interest rates and anticipation of Chinese stimulus both lent further support to the AUD. Nonetheless, cross-border uncertainties, such as President Trump’s US trade policies and inconsistent US economic statistics, remain possible threats. In the meantime, technical markers indicate the AUD/USD exchange rate is under stress, trending below significant levels of resistance within continuing market turmoil. KEY LOOKOUTS • The tax cuts and economic projections of the Australian government can shape investor optimism and market stability. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to rate cutting and its reaction to inflation and international economic trends will be pivotal for the movement of the AUD. • Any possible tariff announcements by President Trump and how these will affect global trade, specifically Australia’s trading relationship with China and the US, may cause volatility. •The currency pair is still below major resistance at 0.6300, with support at 0.6220; a break above or below these levels may indicate the direction of the next market move. The Australian Dollar’s stability after the 2025/26 budget announcement is indicative of cautious optimism, but major factors may determine its path in the weeks ahead. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate stance continues to be a major focus, as investors weigh the chances of further policy changes. At the same time, worldwide trade tensions, especially possible US tariff announcements, may also weigh on market sentiment and the economic prospects of Australia. Of course, technical levels of resistance around 0.6300 and support at 0.6220 will also be observed closely, as a break through in either direction may indicate the next significant move for the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar is stable following the budget announcement for 2025/26, with investors waiting for tax reductions and economic projections. RBA’s interest rate policy and possible US tariff implications may influence market sentiment. Technical resistance of 0.6300 and support of 0.6220 will be points of interest for AUD/USD action. • The budget for 2025/26 involves tax reductions and economic projections, with a budget deficit of A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. • The Aussie remains firm, helped by RBA holding rates and possible Chinese stimulus. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautiousness towards rate cuts continues to be a leading driver of the AUD. • Looming uncertainty regarding possible tariff announcements from President Trump may generate volatility across markets worldwide. • US Services PMI jumped to 54.3, bolstering the US Dollar, while Manufacturing PMI was lower than forecasted. • Resistance at 0.6300 and support at 0.6220 will be key to deciding the pair’s next direction. • Beijing’s proposals to enhance consumption and wages would indirectly assist the Australian economy because of robust trade links. The Australian Dollar held firm after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the 2025/26 budget that provided significant economic predictions, such as tax relief intended to ease money woes for households. The budget estimates a 2024-25 deficit of A$27.6 billion and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26, as the government aims to balance economic growth with fiscal prudence. Moreover, the GDP of Australia is predicted to expand by 2.25% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, indicating modest economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious in its interest rate moves, keeping inflation under control while fostering economic stability. AUS/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Australian Dollar maintained its calmness after Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget that made important economic projections, such as the reduction of tax that would help alleviate financial burdens on households. The budget forecasts a deficit of A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26, which shows that the government is striking a balance between economic growth and fiscal prudence. Moreover, Australia’s GDP is projected to increase by 2.25% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, indicating moderate economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious in its interest rate policy, keeping inflation under control while maintaining economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6290, with technical indicators indicating a cautious market mood. The currency pair continues to be in a bearish trend and trades in a falling channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a level slightly below 50, which means the currency has weak momentum. The important support remains at 0.6220 and breaking below this may drag the pair towards its seven-week low of 0.6187. Resistance on the upside comes at 0.6308 (nine-day Exponential Moving Average) and 0.6310 (50-day EMA). A breakout above these levels may signal short-term bullish momentum, while continued rejection at resistance may reinforce the prevailing downtrend. FORECAST The outlook for the Australian Dollar is mixed and dependent on both local and international considerations. To the upside, solid economic fundamentals from Australia, such as better Manufacturing and Services PMI reports, can underpin the AUD. Also, hopes of further stimulus from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, could increase demand for Australian exports, supporting the currency. If the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be cautious on interest rates without hinting at aggressive cuts, investor sentiment in the AUD might stay firm. A move above key technical resistance levels at 0.6310 could pave the way for more gains in the near term. But downside risks remain as uncertainty regarding US trade policies hangs in the air. Possible tariff announcements by President Trump have the potential to upset global trade and hurt risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. The US Dollar is also supported by robust Services PMI data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could cap the AUD’s upside. If the AUD/USD currency pair is unable to sustain support at 0.6220, then further losses towards 0.6187 may be anticipated, supporting a bearish trend in the short term.

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