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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies from 10-Month Highs as Markets Watch US Retail Sales and Fed Rate Cuts

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  • September 16, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated from a 10-month high of 0.6676 on Tuesday, as investors considered the forthcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and US Retail Sales figures. The AUD had previously risen on hopes after a US-China trade deal on TikTok and solid domestic data, such as a strong trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and increasing inflation expectations. In spite of a generally risk-on sentiment in the market, AUD came under pressure from a falling US Dollar (DXY at around 97.20) and continuing speculation regarding Fed rate reductions, with markets pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in the September meeting and possible easing up to 2026. Technical analysis indicates AUD/USD trading in an upward channel, targeting 11-month highs around 0.6700, with support at 0.6621 and 0.6570. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will monitor the release closely for clues about US consumer expenditure, which will impact Fed policy expectations and USD strength. • The market is expecting a 25-basis-point cut, but any surprise or description of future easing will affect AUD/USD momentum. • The pair may challenge 11-month highs around 0.6700, with the initial support at the nine-day EMA (0.6621) and the lower boundary of the rising channel (0.6570). • Domestic Australian figures and US-China trade trends, as well as general risk appetite, will keep influencing AUD strength. Australian Dollar (AUD) softened from its 10-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as markets looked out for major economic indicators, such as US Retail Sales and the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming rate announcement. Although previous advances were aided by a US-China commercial deal on TikTok and robust Australian economic data like a healthy trade surplus and inflation expectations increasing, the AUD was pressured with a weaker US Dollar and continued speculation regarding Fed cuts. Technicals indicate AUD/USD is still within an uptrend channel, targeting possible upside to 0.6700, with lower levels near 0.6621 and 0.6570. In the aggregate, the short-term direction of the currency will depend on global risk appetite and policy actions of both Australia and the US. The Australian Dollar retreated from a 10-month high versus the US Dollar as investors waited for US Retail Sales and the Fed’s rate cut decision. Gains earlier were buoyed by upbeat Australian economic data and a US-China TikTok agreement. AUD/USD now looks toward resistance around 0.6700, with support near 0.6621. • The Australian Dollar retreated from a 10-month high of 0.6676 versus the US Dollar. • Support came from a US-China trade deal on TikTok and robust Australian economic figures. • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates well-balanced risks and close inflation and consumer spending tracking. • August US Retail Sales data is a highlight upcoming event impacting the strength of USD. • Markets expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, with further easing possible through 2026. • AUD/USD is trading within an ascending channel, targeting 11-month highs near 0.6700. • Immediate support levels are at the nine-day EMA (0.6621) and the channel’s lower boundary (0.6570). The Australian Dollar (AUD) pulled back from a 10-month peak against the US Dollar (USD) as market players directed attention to coming US economic news and Federal Reserve policy actions. Previous gains were fueled by optimism after a US-China commercial deal to transfer TikTok into US hands and high domestic economic readings in Australia, such as a sound trade surplus, high Q2 GDP growth, and improving consumer inflation expectations. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers stressed the importance of a forward direction in ensuring economic stability and tracking consumer expenditure, noting confidence in maintaining inflation around target.    AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Global events and central bank policy continue to shape the AUD’s performance. The US Dollar has remained under pressure in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut, with the markets factoring in relief measures to buoy economic growth and prevent recessionary risks. In Australia, economic resilience and balanced risks in the outlook have capped expectations of further RBA rate cuts. While that is happening, market participants are watching broader market sentiment, such as trade news, US consumer indicators, and world economic health, which will keep influencing the currency’s near-term direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is moving in a clearly defined upward channel, reflecting a positive market bias. The pair is now sitting above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reflecting high short-term momentum. On the positive side, the pair may aim for the 11-month high of 0.6687, then the channel top around 0.6700. On the negative side, there is initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6621, then support at the lower edge of the rising channel around 0.6570. A fall through this channel might reverse short-term momentum and lead the pair to the 50-day EMA at 0.6535. FORECAST AUD/USD can continue to move higher towards the 11-month high of 0.6687, and then further test the upper resistance of the ascending channel around 0.6700. Encouragement from solid Australian economic data, loss of expectation for additional RBA rate cuts, and global risk-on mood can further propel it higher in the near term. To the downside, the pair may be supported by the nine-day EMA at 0.6621 and the lower line of the uptrend channel at 0.6570. A fall below these levels could destroy short-term bullish momentum, sending AUD/USD towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6535, particularly if US economic data surprises to the upside or Fed rate-cut hopes fade.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Falls Despite Consumer Confidence Surge as US Dollar Rises on Geopolitical News

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  • August 19, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its fall on Tuesday, trading at 0.6490 levels, despite a positive Westpac Consumer Confidence report jumping 5.7% in August to its highest since February 2022. The currency weakness is despite the US Dollar (USD) gaining momentum, driven by declining geopolitical tensions and ahead of a trilateral summit of US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made a largely anticipated 25 bps interest rate reduction, strength in the US Dollar and hopes for the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and guidance from the Fed pressured the AUD/USD currency pair into breaking below the important 0.6500 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rose 5.7% in August to 98.5, its highest since February 2022, indicating boosting household confidence. • USD gains traction from geopolitical events, Trump’s plans to have a trilateral meeting, and expectations of Fed policy guidance. • The RBA reduced rates by 25 bps to 3.6%, but policymakers are not in a hurry for additional easing even as economic pressures continue. • The pair is trading beneath the important 0.6500 resistance area, with bearish risks to 0.6419 and possible support only above 0.6568. The Australian Dollar was kept in the doldrums on Tuesday, falling below the crucial 0.6500 level even after a robust recovery in consumer confidence, as the Westpac Consumer Confidence index jumped 5.7% in August to 98.5, its best since the early part of 2022. Though the Reserve Bank of Australia made the expected 25 bps rate cut, the AUD was unable to make headway as the US Dollar firmed up on decreasing geopolitics and expectation around the Jackson Hole Symposium. Preparations for a trilateral summit between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy further buoyed the greenback, leaving the AUD/USD pair trading on a bearish bias and open to testing lower support levels. Australian Dollar fell beneath 0.6500 despite a strong consumer confidence bounce, as the US Dollar gained on the back of geopolitical optimism. Traders now await Fed guidance from this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, maintaining pressure on the AUD/USD pair. • The Australian Dollar (AUD) recorded a second day of losses, trading just below 0.6490. • Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 5.7% in August to 98.5, the highest since February 2022. • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced rates by 25 bps to 3.6%, as expected. • US Dollar (USD) strengthened on easing geopolitical tensions and tariff news. • Planning for a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy trilateral gathering improved sentiment in the market. • US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to approximately 98.20 in anticipation of the Jackson Hole Symposium. • Technicals indicate AUD/USD below 0.6500, with bear momentum and risks towards 0.6419 support. The economic outlook of Australia was given a boost by Westpac Consumer Confidence bouncing 5.7% in August to 98.5, its highest reading since February 2022. The rise indicates a slow improvement in household sentiment boosted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s total 75 basis points of rate cuts for the year. Analysts are saying that although consumer pessimism might be relenting, sustaining momentum might take ongoing policy support, though the RBA is not presently under any immediate pressure for more cuts. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events across the globe have garnered broad attention, especially with US President Donald Trump having made preparatory gestures for a trilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The move seeks to tackle security assurances and possible territorial deals, and Ukraine has also reaffirmed significant weapons purchases and invited US participation in peace talks. These moves, as well as persistent US trade policy changes and expectations of the Federal Reserve’s next move, are influencing broader market mood. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD remains below the pivotal 0.6500 resistance level, indicating sustained bearish pressure. The pair is still under sell pressure as it trades below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining below the 50 level, reinforcing bearish buying pressure. On the negative side, the pair can test support around 0.6419, the two-month low of August 1, with additional losses revealing the three-month low of 0.6372. But a clean breakout above 0.6500 and continued rally above 0.6568 might turn the trend in favor of the bulls. FORECAST And if the AUD/USD currency pair is able to retake the 0.6500 psychological level, backed by a weaker US Dollar or better risk appetite, it might pick up short-term momentum towards the recent monthly high of 0.6568. A sustained rise above this level could set the stage for further upward momentum, the next target at 0.6625, the nine-month high of late July. Improved domestic data or suggestions of further RBA policy stimulus might also support the Australian Dollar’s rebound. On the negative side, a failure to stay above the 0.6500 zone would expose the AUD/USD to a retest of the two-month low at 0.6419. A clear breakdown below here could provoke further declines towards the three-month low at 0.6372. The pairing of further US Dollar upside on the back of continued geopolitical optimism or hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole Symposium might intensify bearish pressures on the pair.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Gains on the Basis of Key ISM Services PMI Data to Come

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  • August 5, 2025
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Australian Dollar remains under pressure even with robust domestic PMI data due to the resilience of the US Dollar in anticipation of the release of key ISM Services PMI data. Better economic news from both Australia and China has had little effect in pushing the AUD higher, with wider market sentiment being dampened by speculation of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut and international trade tensions. Developments in the US, such as weak jobs reports, inflation worries on the increase, and political interference in economic institutions, have contributed to uncertainty but seen the USD’s relative strength maintained. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is following closely on this point of data for new indications of the US economy’s strength and direction of Fed policy in the future. • The anticipation of 25 bps of rate cutting will weigh further on the Australian Dollar if it materializes. • Even with inferior job numbers and political turmoil, the USD is still supported, affecting AUD/USD momentum. • A surprise spike in China’s Caixin Services PMI could provide some limited upside to the AUD, considering the trade relations of Australia with China. The Australian Dollar is bearish despite positive domestic and Chinese PMI readings, as general market sentiment remains bullish on the US Dollar prior to the ISM Services PMI announcement. Although Australia’s S&P Composite and Services PMIs recorded significant advances in July, hopes of a possible rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to weigh down investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains steadfast with increasing political uncertainty, poor jobs data, and ever-present trade tensions driving the bearish sentiment for the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar remains soft despite positive PMI numbers, with the US Dollar holding steady prior to the ISM Services PMI release. Hopes of an RBA rate cut, alongside global trade tensions, continue to bear down on AUD/USD sentiment. • Australian Dollar softens despite positive S&P Global Composite and Services PMI readings for July. •  China’s Caixin Services PMI sharply higher at 52.6, indicating firmer regional demand. • US Dollar strong pre-ISM Services PMI, keeping AUD/USD under pressure. • RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points next week as inflation eases and unemployment rises. • Fed Governor Kugler resignation allows Trump to exert early control over the central bank, sparking fears of Fed independence. •  US NFP data is a letdown with only the addition of 73,000 jobs in July and a marginal increase in the unemployment rate. •  Technical perspective of AUD/USD remains bearish with the pair trading below significant moving averages and RSI below 50. The Australian Dollar continues to suffer despite robust economic data from both Australia and China. Australia’s S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI in July both reported significant improvement, which is indicative of ongoing private-sector growth and the best expansion since early 2022. China’s Caixin Services PMI also increased strongly, indicating more robust service-sector activity in the region that would generally underpin Australian export demand. But these encouraging data points have not yet resulted in significant gains for the AUD, given that market sentiment overall is overshadowed by central bank expectations and geopolitical events. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the US, political and economic developments are dictating the market narrative. The surprise resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler provides President Trump with the opportunity to shape the Federal Reserve sooner than expected, raising questions regarding the independence of the institution. Moreover, recent moves like the removal of the BLS Commissioner and the introduction of fresh tariffs have added to the uncertainty. In spite of a softer jobs report, the US Dollar has remained resilient, with investors waiting for more clarity from the forthcoming economic data and Fed policy moves. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair continues to have a bearish bias, trading below important short-term moving averages. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be below the level of 50, which suggests poor momentum. The pair is now trading around 0.6470 levels, with the immediate support coming at the recent low of 0.6419. A close below this point would see further weakness to the next significant support of 0.6372. To the upside, resistance comes in at the 9-day EMA of 0.6485 and the 50-day EMA of 0.6494; a firm break above these might encourage a switch to short-term positive sentiment. FORECAST If later US data, specifically the ISM Services PMI, is weaker than anticipated or reflects economic deceleration, the US Dollar may lose some of its vigor, providing scope for recovery in the Australian Dollar. Also, any unexpected move by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates unchanged rather than cut them may sustain a bounce in AUD/USD. A breach above resistance levels of 0.6485 and 0.6494 might set the stage towards the 0.6625 level, particularly if risk appetite picks up and global trade tensions subside. On the negative side, if ISM Services PMI numbers surprise higher or if US yields increase even more, the US Dollar can continue to advance, and place further pressure on the AUD. Confirmation of the RBA cutting rates next week would also support bearish sentiment towards the Australian Dollar. From a technical perspective, a clear fall below 0.6419 might sustain losses, and the pair could slide towards the next significant support around 0.6372, seen late last June.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengthened as Chronic Inflation Threats and Global Tariff Disputes Persist

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  • July 9, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rise against the US Dollar (USD), fueled by chronic inflation threats highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and escalating global trade tensions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated the ongoing influence of high labor costs and poor productivity on inflation, which is a signal of possible rate-cut delays. In the meantime, global sentiment is still risk-averse in the face of escalating US tariffs by President Trump, which involve steep tariffs on copper, drugs, and products of several countries. The AUD remains strong despite a stable US Dollar, riding on its strong trade relations with China and hope for China’s reforms. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is currently on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, particularly after it left rates unchanged at 3.85% despite speculation of a reduction. Risks to inflation may delay the easing. • The market is paying close attention to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes in anticipation of direction on the US Fed’s interest rate path and its implication for movement of USD. • US President Trump’s suggested 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, as well as sweeping levies against several nations, are contributing to worldwide trade tensions and affecting risk sentiment. • China’s PPI and CPI readings and widening offshore access to Chinese bond markets could have a major impact on AUD trends given Australia’s penetration of China economically. Australian Dollar is holding strong against the US Dollar, underpinned by ongoing inflation fears and guarded optimism over China’s economy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments on ongoing inflation on the back of higher labor costs and poor productivity have pushed back expectations of a near-future rate cut, despite market expectations of easing in August. While, in the meantime, growing trade tensions sparked by US President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy have unsettled global markets, AUD still stands to gain from its intimate trade correlation with China, particularly with China’s determination to open up its capital markets as well as rev up economic growth. Australian Dollar remains strong in the face of ongoing inflation risks highlighted by the RBA and rising global trade tensions. High fundamentals with China and hopes for economic reforms keep AUD fundamentals strong. Markets now look to FOMC Minutes for further guidance. • AUD/USD rallies for a second consecutive session, buoyed by Australian inflation concerns. •  RBA maintains interest rates at 3.85%, contrary to expectations of a 25 bps reduction, due to persisting inflation risks. •  Governor Michele Bullock says that high labor costs and poor productivity may sustain inflation at elevated levels. •  China’s CPI increases by 0.1% YoY, some good news for Australia’s export-oriented economy. •  Trump imposes new tariffs, including a 50% tariff on copper and 200% on drugs, escalating global trade tensions. • US Dollar holds firm, with attention turning to the next FOMC Minutes for guidance on policy. • Technicals are bullish, with AUD/USD eyeing resistance around 0.6535 and maybe even 0.6590. The Australian Dollar is strengthening after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hints at ongoing inflation threats through high unit labor costs and reducing productivity. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed that the full effects of past interest rate reductions are yet to be realized, and thereby advised caution before making any further monetary policy moves. Though market players and key Australian banks had been expecting a rate cut, the central bank’s resolve to remain tight shows it is serious about fighting inflation. This move mirrors the RBA’s focus on long-term price stability and its resolve to watch more data before policy changes. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In international news, increased trade tensions initiated by US President Donald Trump’s confrontational tariff policy are driving economic uncertainty. New taxes on a broad array of imports—ranging from copper and pharmaceuticals to imports from several countries—are likely to remake world supply chains and affect trade flows. Under these circumstances, Australia’s healthy trade relationship with China is even more important, particularly as China introduces reforms to increase investment access and compensate for export interruption. These economic and geopolitical changes are molding currency markets, with the Australian Dollar remaining robust in the midst of the global uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is exhibiting a bullish inclination while trading around the 0.6530 level and holding tight in an upward sloping channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the midpoint 50, signaling fair bullish momentum. Though, the pair is now testing resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535. A clean break above this point could open the door towards the recent peak of 0.6590 and even beyond to higher levels around the top of the channel at 0.6680. Support on the downside is around 0.6510, followed by the 50-day EMA around 0.6475. FORECAST If the Australian Dollar can take out and hold above the short-term resistance level at 0.6535 (nine-day EMA), it would gain more bullish momentum. A successful breach above this level may take the AUD/USD pair towards the recent high of 0.6590, and potentially challenge the upper edge of the rising channel around 0.6680. Positive news from China’s economic sector or additional hawkish indications from the RBA would further push the Aussie Dollar higher. Conversely, a failure to clear 0.6535 could see a short-term pullback. The first support is at the lower border of the ascending channel at 0.6510, then the 50-day EMA at 0.6475. A firm break below these could turn sentiment bearish, bringing the pair towards the two-month low of 0.6372. Increased tensions in global trade or a slightly firmer-than-expected US Dollar due to the FOMC Minutes could hasten this decline.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stable as Market Mood Buoys, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Center Stage

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  • July 1, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is stable versus US Dollar (USD) as better global risk appetite and encouraging Chinese factory data offset domestic economic worries. Market mood improved after reports indicated the US is tapering its expectations for trade negotiations, which dampened concerns of aggressive tariffs. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to deteriorate amid increasing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and increasing fiscal worries. The stronger-than-forecast Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China also boosted optimism about Australia’s export outlook, given the nations’ high level of trade dependence. Traders now look ahead to the next US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The June PMI is closely watched by traders, which may have an impact on Fed policy expectations and affect the direction of the USD. • Continued deterioration in inflation trends and conflicting cues from Fed officials remain a drag on the US Dollar. • The stronger-than-forecasted Caixin and NBS PMIs in China could underpin the AUD because of the solid trade relationship between the two countries. • AUD/USD is trading close to 0.6560 with major resistance at 0.6583 and support of about 0.6529, which is having an impact on short-term market momentum. Australian Dollar is continuing to hold firm against the US Dollar on the back of enhanced global risk appetite and better-than-forecast Chinese manufacturing figures. Optimism increased after news suggested the US would tone down its ambitious tariff ambitions, easing fears of a full-blown trade war. Although Australia’s local manufacturing PMI was weak, China’s rebound in Caixin PMI offset positively because of the close economic relationships between the nations. The US Dollar remains under downward pressure in the meantime with Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and increasing fiscal worries. With investors awaiting the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI later on, it may give new indication of the US economic environment and further drive AUD/USD dynamics. Australian Dollar stabilizes with better risk mood and higher Chinese manufacturing figures. Fiscal worries and Fed policy uncertainty hold back the US Dollar as major US ISM PMI data looms. • News that the US might seek phasing out tariffs in deals has alleviated trade war concerns, boosting overall market sentiment and propelling the Australian Dollar. • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI surged to 50.4 in June (48.3), indicating growth and firming up demand for Australian exports. • Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6, its lowest output reading since February, moderating—but not reversing—AUD momentum. • Increasing unease regarding Federal Reserve rate cut timing and concerns about a $3.3 trillion US fiscal package continue the US Dollar’s losing streak. • Traders are presently laser focused on the June ISM report; a surprise either direction could dictate the next short term path for AUD/USD. • The pair is quoted around 0.6560 in an uptrending channel; major resistance is at 0.6583/0.6650, whereas support is at 0.6529 (9 day EMA) and 0.6490. • Divergent signals—from Kashkari’s call for two 2025 cuts to Powell’s caution on tariff driven inflation—keep policy expectations volatile, influencing USD sentiment and, by extension, AUD/USD moves. The Australian Dollar is holding firm as global market sentiment improves, largely driven by easing trade tensions and stronger economic signals from China. Reports the US might ease its stance on trade talks by looking for phased agreements boosted investor sentiment and diminished the immediate danger of severe tariffs. The news comes as a welcome relief to jumpy markets that have been spooked by the chronic ambiguities in global trade. Also, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI reported a significant bounce in June, indicating a possible improvement in industrial activity. With the close trade relationship that Australia shares with China, good Chinese data tends to reflect positively on both the Australian economy and the Australian dollar. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the US Dollar still weakens with increasing fears regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy and America’s fiscal issues. As much as inflation is in focus, mixed statements among Fed officials have made uncertain the timing and size of possible interest rate reductions. Adding to the uncertainty is a broad tax and spending plan under consideration in the US Senate that would sharply accelerate the national debt. All these factors combined have undermined the US Dollar’s attractiveness, allowing the Australian Dollar space to regain and consolidate even with slightly weaker local manufacturing data. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Australian Dollar continues to be underpinned by more favorable global market sentiment and supportive news from China despite some weakness in local numbers. Optimism in markets was further fueled after reports emerged that the US is set to embrace phased trade deals instead of aggressive tariff plans, which dampened geopolitical tensions. In addition, China’s better-than-forecast Caixin Manufacturing PMI supported optimism about regional economic stability, to the advantage of Australia since they have robust trade relations. In contrast, the US Dollar is weakened by increasing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy moves and rising concern about widening fiscal deficits, also serving to support the Australian Dollar’s strength. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may have further room for gains if there is continued improvement in world risk appetite and supportive Chinese economic statistics. Favorable news on US trade policy, specifically the change in trend towards phased tariffs agreements, could diminish geopolitical risk and improve investor sentiment. If future US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, indicate softening growth, it could add to expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions, which would put further bearish pressure on the US Dollar and push AUD/USD higher. Further evidence of solid Chinese manufacturing activity and steady Australian inflation rates would also be bullish for the Aussie. On the negative, the Australian Dollar can be put under pressure if local economic data, such as retail sales and employment figures, discourage in the next few weeks. Also, if the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is stronger than anticipated, it might briefly strengthen the US Dollar by dampening rate cut expectations. Political events, including heightened tensions between the US and China or doubts regarding Australia’s fiscal prospects, may also reduce investor

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges on Ceasefire Hope and Weaker Inflation Figures

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  • June 25, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, supported by the removal of geopolitical risk and weaker-than-anticipated domestic inflation figures. The U.S. President Trump-announced Israel-Iran ceasefire improved risk appetite in the world and weakened the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, underpinning the risk-sensitive AUD. Meanwhile, Australia’s May CPI rose by 2.1% year-over-year, below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in July. As markets price in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut, the AUD/USD pair climbed above 0.6500, showing persistent bullish momentum backed by favorable technical indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are implying an 80% chance of a 25bps rate cut after softer-than-anticipated CPI numbers and lackluster GDP readings. • The AUD is also reactive to geopolitics; any continuation in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire can continue to support risk appetite. • Comments from Fed Chair Powell imply no near-term rate cuts, but mixed comments from other Fed officials can bring volatility to the USD. • AUD/USD is threatened by resistance at the June 16 high, with a breach above potentially validating sustained bullish momentum. The Australian Dollar continues to appreciate against the US Dollar on the back of calming geopolitical tensions and weakening domestic inflation data. Global risk sentiment has been aided in recent days by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has diminished the safe-haven characteristics of the USD and increased the risk-sensitive AUD. At the same time, Australia’s May CPI was lower than forecast at 2.1% year-over-year, affirming the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations as early as July. While markets are price-accustomed for monetary easing and technicals are reflecting bullish strength, the AUD/USD pair is holding strongly north of the 0.6500 level. Australian Dollar extends gains on better risk sentiment after the Israel-Iran ceasefire and lower Australian inflation numbers. The markets now price in a July rate cut from the RBA, with AUD/USD breaking above the 0.6500 mark. Technicals still show bullish momentum. • AUD/USD rises above 0.6500 on improved risk appetite and declining geopolitical tensions. • Israel-Iran ceasefire improves market mood, deters safe-haven US Dollar. • Australia’s May CPI increased 2.1% YoY, weaker than expected 2.3% and previous 2.4%, making rate cut expectations more certain. • 80% probability of 25bps RBA rate reduction in July are priced in by markets, with combined 73bps cuts being expected by the end of the year. • Fed Chair Powell indicates delayed rate cuts, likely in Q4, while other Fed officials are less clear in their views. • AUD/USD remains above the 9-day EMA, with buy signals from RSI and ascending channel pattern. • Major resistance at 0.6552 and 0.6570, with nearest support at 0.6486 and 0.6450. The Australian Dollar remains firm, boosted by better global risk appetite and a weaker inflation outlook domestically. The news that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has relaxed geopolitical tensions and generated hope in financial markets. This has caused demand for the safe-haven currency like the US Dollar to fall, boosting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. The ceasefire has also brought optimism for possible diplomatic advancements, including resumption of nuclear negotiations, further bolstering market confidence. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Locally, the economic figures from Australia have lent further support to the Aussie Dollar. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, softer than forecast. This combined with earlier published subpar GDP readings has helped fuel market expectations of a July interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Market participants now price in several rate cuts by year-end. The mutual support of reducing inflation pressures and a favorable international environment has assisted in maintaining the recent trend of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair continues to have a bullish bias since it trades above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and continues to be within an uptrend channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 level but has not entered the overbought zone, signaling improving positive momentum without reaching overbought levels. If the pair sustains its move above 0.6500, it could retest the recent high of 0.6552, followed by potential resistance near 0.6570. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486, with further downside limited by the lower channel boundary and the 50-day EMA near 0.6450–0.6438. FORECAST If the bullish pressure persists, AUD/USD is set to revisit the recent high of 0.6552, the seven-month high. Breaking above it could pave the way for a move towards the upper edge of the rising channel of about 0.6570. On-going risk-on appetite, combined with hopes of policy easing from RBA, could continue to propel price higher, especially if geopolitical tensions remain mild and market optimism continues to increase. On the flip side, if the pair does not hold above 0.6500, near-term support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486. A strong break below here might turn bearish momentum, taking AUD/USD to the lower end of the rising channel at 0.6450. Lower levels may be seen testing the 50-day EMA at 0.6438, if US Dollar demand picks up with the release of better economic data or with dovish Fed speak.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises as Ceasefire Expectations and Confident China Data Lift Risk Mood

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  • June 16, 2025
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Australian Dollar rallied as positive risk mood emerged from possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East with rocket exchanges between Iran and Israel. Optimistic economic readings from Australia’s most important trading partner, China, further supported the AUD, as Retail Sales exceeded forecasts at 6.4% year-on-year in May. While the US Dollar dipped after mixed economic data involving below-forecast Producer Price Index (PPI) growth and increase in consumer sentiment, the AUD/USD currency pair has a bullish trend inside an uptrend channel, but is near-term capped by resistance at 0.6495, with firmer barriers at recent highs, while risks are lower if levels of support get breached. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a hostage release may result in a short-term ceasefire, boosting global risk sentiment and favoring the Australian Dollar. •  Better-than-anticipated Retail Sales expansion in China to 6.4% YoY paints a favorable picture for Australia’s export-oriented economy, although uncertainties are in place due to possible trade policy changes. •  Ongoing Iranian-Israeli missile exchanges maintain geopolitical risks in a heightened state, which can affect safe-haven flows and currency market volatility. •  Weaker US PPI and improving consumer sentiment are likely to impact the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions, with markets presently pricing in a future rate cut within a month. Australian Dollar is supported by improving global risk sentiment as fresh optimism for a ceasefire in Israel-Hamas conflict continues with tensions in the Middle East. Strong economic news from China, Australia’s key trade partner, also supports the Aussie, with Retail Sales in May coming in stronger than predicted at 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell slightly following mixed economic data, such as softer-than-anticipated Producer Price Index (PPI) data and an improvement in consumer sentiment, affecting market sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. Even with the positive backdrop, geopolitical tensions and future US monetary policy actions remain a challenge for the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar finds support on improving risk mood fueled by prospects of possible ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Sustained Chinese Retail Sales strength adds to the momentum for the Aussie, although mixed US economic data deters the US Dollar. Nevertheless, middle-east tension and looming Fed actions retain market uncertainty. • Australian Dollar rallies on improved risk mood on expectations of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. • China’s Retail Sales increased 6.4% YoY in May, topping consensus and underpinning Australia’s trade outlook. • Middle East tensions continue, with Iran and Israel trading missile strikes in defiance of international appeals for diplomacy. • US Dollar tumbles as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI were softer than anticipated. • US Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 60.5 in June, above the predicted 53.5. • Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates steady but could reduce rates by 25 basis points through September. • Technical picture for AUD/USD remains positive within the uptrend channel, with resistance at 0.6495 and support at 0.6470. The Australian Dollar is strengthening as world risk mood improves, mainly due to the advancement of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas. In spite of the continued hostilities, the likelihood of a temporary ceasefire has given financial markets a reprieve. Nevertheless, tensions continue to run high as Iran and Israel keep on trading missile attacks with each other, threatening wider regional stability. The crisis has attracted international attention, and the calls for diplomacy have grown louder as casualties mount on either side. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Another source of bullishness for the Australian Dollar is the recent announcement of better-than-forecast economic indicators from China, one of Australia’s most important trading partners. China’s Retail Sales rose 6.4% year-on-year in May, beating market forecasts and prior levels, marking robust domestic demand. At the same time, Industrial Production registered moderate expansion, boding well for a steady but conservative economic pace. These advancements combined with conflicting economic indications from the United States have provoked investors to adjust their anticipations regarding future Federal Reserve policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair maintains a positive bias since it remains trading within a rising channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the middleline at 50, pointing towards weak bullish momentum. Near-term resistance is close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6495, and additional resistance sits at the recent seven-month high of 0.6538. Support on the downside is the lower end of the bullish channel at approximately 0.6470, and a fall below here may undermine the bullish thesis with further losses towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6425. FORECAST If upbeat risk sentiment prevails, boosted by advancements in Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations and robust Chinese economic statistics, the AUD/USD currency pair might extend its upside through the near-term resistance at 0.6495. A continuous move upwards could then aim at the recent seven-month peak of 0.6538, and if bullish momentum intensifies, the pair might target the eight-month high of about 0.6687, then the upper side of the rising channel at 0.6730. To the negative, increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or any unforeseen slump in world risk appetite may pressure the AUD/USD pair. A fall below the 0.6470 support level, which is the lower boundary of the ascending channel, could induce further selling. In that event, the pair may retest the 50-day EMA at 0.6425, with further downside risks extending to the 0.6380 area should bearish sentiment intensify.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges in US Dollar Weakness and RBA Rate Reduction in Spite of Economic Uncertainties

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  • May 21, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied against the US Dollar (USD) in spite of increasing hopes of increased rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The US Dollar weakened in the wake of the US economic outlook uncertainty, falling business and consumer sentiments, and a recent credit rating downgrade of the US by Moody’s. The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA was considered a preemptive measure to bolster economic confidence, and Australian political change and favorable employment figures also supported the AUD. Technicals indicate further strength for AUD/USD, as key resistance and support levels are monitored closely by traders. In contrast, global trade tensions and China’s mixed economic signals remain to drive market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Monitor additional Fed commentary and releases of economic data, as doubts about decelerating growth and trade policy issues are maintaining pressure on the US Dollar. • Monitor near-term RBA comments and actions, as Governor Bullock’s remarks suggest additional rate cuts may be forthcoming pending economic developments. • Keep an eye on the AUD/USD pair at the major technical levels — support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6426 and resistance near the six-month peak of 0.6515 — that would determine short- to medium-term direction. • US-China trade news and Chinese economic indicators, particularly retail sales and industrial production, are still key to risk sentiment and the outlook for the AUD. Market players must pay close attention to statements by Federal Reserve officials as well as coming US economic reports since fears of decelerating growth and trade policy ambiguity continue to drag on the US Dollar. Future Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy actions, particularly any suggestions of additional rate reductions, will also be pivotal for the Australian Dollar’s direction. From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair’s movement around support at the nine-day EMA near 0.6426 and resistance at the six-month high of 0.6515 will likely dictate short- to medium-term momentum. Additionally, ongoing developments in US-China trade relations and China’s economic performance remain key factors influencing risk sentiment and the broader currency market outlook. Monitor Fed cues and US economic indicators as they keep pushing the US Dollar. Future RBA rate decisions and technical levels of 0.6426 and 0.6515 will dictate AUD/USD direction. US-China trade news and China’s economic indicators continue to be significant for market mood in the meantime. • The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied despite ongoing predictions of additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. •   The US Dollar (USD) lost ground as fears of slower US economic growth and falling business and consumer confidence took its toll. •  Moody’s reduced the US credit rating, putting further pressure on the USD as federal debt forecasts rose. •  The RBA lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points, calling it a preemptive action to enhance economic optimism. •  Australian political turmoil and robust employment rates sustained the AUD’s strength. •  Technical analysis indicates AUD/USD is trading above major moving averages, with resistance at 0.6515 and support at 0.6426. •  Persistent US-China trade tensions and China’s mixed economic reports continue to dictate risk sentiment and currency trends. The Australian Dollar has remained resilient against a tough global economic environment, appreciating as worries mount about the economic prospects of the US. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to weakening consumer and business sentiment, driven in part by uncertainty around US trade policy and persistent geopolitical tensions. Moody’s recent credit rating downgrade of the US also reduced optimism regarding the US Dollar, as climbing federal debt and budget deficits create long-term concerns. At the same time, China’s rebuke of US trade restrictions and its uneven economic readings contribute to the multifaceted global trade landscape, shaping investor outlook. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Australia, the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank was presented as a preemptive move to enhance confidence and respond to prevailing economic conditions. RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that the bank stands prepared to make additional action if necessary to control inflation and drive growth. Political developments in Australia, as well as better-than-anticipated jobs data, have also seen a positive domestic environment contribute to a strengthened Australian Dollar despite broader worldwide uncertainty and changing trade tensions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is indicating sustained bullish momentum as it continues to trade above significant moving averages, and this suggests that there is bullish sentiment among the traders. The pair is receiving support close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and this is serving as a short-term support, whereas resistance points around near-term highs are being monitored closely for possible breakouts. Momentum gauges, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are still higher above neutral ground, indicating that buyers are in control right now. But a firm break below these support points may indicate a change in momentum and higher risks of decline in the near term. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may continue to strengthen if the US Dollar continues to be under pressure due to ongoing economic issues and dovish Federal Reserve hints. US-China trade negotiation positives or more-than-anticipated economic news from Australia, like jobs or inflation data, might support investor sentiment in the AUD. Moreover, if the RBA telegraphs a rate cut halt or suggests stabilizing monetary policy, it might support the currency’s bullish momentum and drive the AUD/USD currency pair towards recent resistance levels. On the negative side, heightened concerns on the global economic outlook or rising geopolitical tensions might deter the Australian Dollar, considering its risk sensitivity. If the RBA hints at more forceful rate reductions amid softer local growth or weakening inflation data, the AUD might lose ground. In addition, any weakening of US-China trade relations or Chinese economic data that is less than expected would temper demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD, and cause a pullback to major support levels.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Finds Strength As Firm Domestic Jobs Data and Lessening Global Trade Tensions Boost AUD vs. USD

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  • May 15, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining strength versus the US Dollar (USD) as better-than-anticipated domestic jobs data and lessening global trade tensions provide support. In April, Australia created 89,000 jobs—well above the predicted 20,000—while unemployment remained at 4.1%. This strong labor market performance, combined with the easing of US-China trade tensions and the removal of tariffs, has strengthened risk appetite among investors, underpinned demand for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie. Despite softening market expectations for interest rate reductions by both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6440 and could retest key levels of resistance if good momentum persists. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets currently anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower the cash rate to approximately 3.1% by the end of the year, with a 25-basis-point reduction most likely at the next policy meeting. Any variation from this might affect AUD performance. • Traders will watch closely for the next US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases for April, which might change sentiment around the US Dollar and affect AUD/USD movement. • The initial US-China tariff rollback deal is improving risk sentiment; further advances—or setbacks—have a real chance of influencing the Australian Dollar in a substantial way. • AUD/USD is reaching pivotal resistance at 0.6515. A sustained break above this level would serve to induce further advancement towards the seven-month high of 0.6687. Australian Dollar’s direction will depend on a number of crucial factors. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy decision is in sharp focus, as markets are pricing a 25-basis-point rate cut, although better domestic data might alter the bank’s tone. On the international front, de-escalating US-China trade tensions remain supportive of risk appetite, but any reversal has the potential to easily spoil AUD gains. Meanwhile, future US economic data such as Retail Sales and PPI levels may influence Federal Reserve rate expectations and put downward pressure on the US Dollar. Technically, AUD/USD is capped by resistance at around 0.6515; a firm breakout above this level may lead to further gains to 0.6687. Australian Dollar’s tone is still underpinned by robust job statistics and declining global trade tensions. Market attention now turns to the next RBA policy meeting and major US economic data. A break above 0.6515 would suggest further strength in AUD/USD. • Australia created 89,000 jobs in April, much more than the predicted 20,000, as the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. • AUD/USD pair retraced around 0.6440 amid solid employment data and risk-on appetite. • Global trade tensions relaxed with the US and China agreeing to reverse tariffs, boosting investor sentiment. • US Dollar Index (DXY) lost strength, trading at 100.90 levels as investors wait for Retail Sales and PPI data. • Wage Price Index in Australia increased 3.4% YoY in Q1 2025, above forecast, indicating wage growth recovery. • Markets now anticipate the RBA to reduce rates to 3.1% by the end of the year, although robust data could impact future actions. • Major resistance for AUD/USD is at 0.6515, with possible upside to 0.6687 if bullish momentum prevails. Australian Dollar is being supported by robust domestic economic indicators and strengthening global trade conditions. April’s employment report was marked by a staggering increase of 89,000 jobs, well surpassing forecasts and highlighting the strength of Australia’s labor market. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, following sustained stability in the employment sector. There were also positive developments in wage growth, with the Wage Price Index increasing 3.4% over the past year in the first quarter of 2025, rebounding from deceleration in earlier quarters. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Globally, alleviating US-China trade tensions have helped instill a better mood in the market, stimulating appetite for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar. An initial agreement to ease tariffs on both sides has abated fears of extended economic tensions, lifting world trade sentiment. At the same time, changing expectations regarding US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts are influencing investor mood, with markets waiting eagerly for further direction from future economic statistics and central bank announcements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is displaying bullish momentum, trading well above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately 0.6429. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still well above the neutral 50 threshold, which suggests persistent buying interest. Should the pair hold above near-term support levels, it may gather energy for a possible push towards past highs. Failure to stay above critical moving averages will, however, undermine the short-term outlook and invite more consolidation. FORECAST Australian Dollar stands to gain from continued strengthening of Australia’s economic fundamentals and relaxing global trade tensions. If domestic statistics continue to impress and risk appetite is high, the AUD/USD exchange rate is likely to test higher prices, possibly retesting levels encountered in late 2024. Continued improvement in wage growth and a firming labor market could further add to investor confidence, promoting a more vigorous rally in the near term. Even with upbeat sentiment, the Australian Dollar is exposed to threats from possible changes in global economic trends and monetary policy. Deterioration in US-China relations or weaker-than-anticipated economic news out of Australia or its key trading partners would dampen sentiment. Moreover, if the Reserve Bank of Australia hints at a more conservative rate-cut policy or US economic signals provoke a relief rally in the US Dollar, the AUD/USD pair may face downward pressure, testing major supports.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Strengths on US-China Trade Tensions and Critical Economic Data on the Horizon

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  • May 13, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained strength against the US Dollar (USD) after a bounce back in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which climbed 2.2% in May after plummeting the month before. This follows as the US Dollar comes under pressure prior to the announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. Market sentiment for a less hawkish approach by the Federal Reserve, along with the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, has resulted in the AUD/USD pair’s recovery. But even as the pair experienced such positive momentum, technical indicators lean towards a bearish forecast for the pair, with important support levels looming ahead, reflecting the continued uncertainty in global trade flows and domestic policy. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The advance US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will play a significant role in determining market sentiment regarding upcoming Federal Reserve policy. Economists expect an inflation rebound, and it may have an impact on the US Dollar, thereby influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate. • The continuing trade negotiations between China and the US continue to be a key driver. While there has been a tentative deal to lower tariffs, any developments in these negotiations or comments by US officials could affect global market mood and the AUD. •  With prospects for the RBA to lower rates in the near future, market players need to carefully observe any shift in RBA communication or announcements, especially at its next policy meeting, which could make a difference to the strength of the AUD. • Continuous indicators from large economies, such as China’s deteriorating CPI and PPI levels, and Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index, will give the world economic landscape and influence trade-sensitive currency sentiment such as that of the AUD. With the Australian Dollar strengthening against the US Dollar, market sentiment is influenced by a number of key determinants. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April will be pivotal, with inflation expectations potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions and the USD’s direction. Trade talks between the US and China, particularly the reduction of tariffs, are another major focus, as any changes in this relationship could significantly impact global market dynamics and the AUD. Also adding to the volatility in the AUD/USD exchange rate is the expectation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the coming short term. With worldwide economic data, such as the slowing down of China’s CPI and PPI figures, also fuelling the uncertainty, market observers need to remain on their toes for any news that will trigger further Aussie dollar volatility. Australian Dollar has strengthened versus the US Dollar, backed by encouraging news out of Australia and a de-escalation of US-China tensions. Key observations to keep in mind include the forthcoming US CPI report, whether Federal Reserve policy will shift, and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate moves, all of which may have a bearing on the direction of AUD. • The AUD has appreciated against the US Dollar on the back of strong Australian economic data and increasing consumer confidence. • The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is due out soon and has the potential to influence significantly market expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps regarding interest rates. • An initial US-China trade agreement that lowers tariffs would lower global trade tensions and could impact market sentiment. • As inflation and unemployment worries persist, the Federal Reserve policy direction will continue to be a dominant force in determining the strength of the US Dollar. • Expectations are building for the RBA to lower interest rates in its next meeting, which would drag on the AUD. • Chinese data, a third month of CPI fall in a row, indicates continued economic weakness that can affect the wider market. • The AUD/USD currency pair is probing significant technical levels, with support at the 50-day EMA and resistance at the nine-day EMA, indicating possible price volatility. Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained strong against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of a positive change in consumer sentiment in Australia, as indicated by the rebound in the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index. This is at a time when relaxing trade tensions between the US and China have also given a boost to confidence in global markets. The initial trade agreement, which features tariff reduction, portends stability in trade between the two global economic powerhouses, a development important to Australia as much as it would be to the United States, given its robust bilateral economic relations with China. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the near term, market participants are looking to the next US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April, which may bring more clarity to inflation trends and have implications for future Federal Reserve policy. Furthermore, hopes for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in the near term are creating a degree of uncertainty around the Australian Dollar’s outlook. As more economic data from across the globe pours in, led by China, these events will be instrumental in determining market mood and guiding the movements of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair has been experiencing some resistance at around the 0.6400 level, with it trading just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite the recent rally, the pair is still trading below this near-term moving average, which means that the trend is bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen below the neutral 50 level, adding to the bearish sentiment. The key support is at the 50-day EMA level of 0.6344, and a fall below this level may indicate further downside potential. But if the pair can break above the 0.6400 resistance level, it may test the six-month high of 0.6515, indicating a possible change in momentum. FORECAST Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be supported by upbeat economic data and the de-escalation of global trade tensions, the AUD/USD currency pair may extend its gains. A breakout

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