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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies as RBA Cautious and US PCE Inflation Data on the Horizon

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  • September 26, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) remained unchanged versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday following two consecutive days of declines, as markets waited for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. AUD was pressured by stronger-than-anticipated US economic data release and risk aversion due to President Trump’s announcement of possible 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports. Slowing growth in Australia was seen in weaker initial S&P Global PMIs, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated cautious optimism, mentioning slightly eased labor market conditions and emphasizing preparedness to adapt to shifting economic conditions. Technically, AUD/USD is quietly trading below the important moving averages, with support around 0.6483 and resistance at 0.6550. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants are keeping a close eye on the Personal Consumption Expenditures, as it may affect Fed policy and USD strength. • Any Reserve Bank of Australia comment regarding rate shifts or economic outlook may affect AUD sentiment. • Jobless claims, PMI numbers, and GDP growth will keep influencing USD strength and intraday AUD/USD movements. • Threatened 100% tariffs on US pharmaceutical imports and worldwide risk appetite may impact AUD demand. The Australian Dollar continues to be pressured by the US Dollar as the market balances a combination of global and local considerations. Even as the AUD recovered from recent losses, risk aversion due to President Trump’s plans for 100% tariffs on drug imports and weakening Australian economic data, such as lower S&P Global PMIs, dragged sentiment down. The market then waits for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Fed, which may drive US monetary policy and the direction of the Dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been cautious, citing marginally eased labor market conditions and highlighting preparedness to react to shifting economic patterns. Australian Dollar steadies versus the US Dollar following RBA caution and softening domestic growth. Marketers are looking for the US PCE Price Index, as geopolitical tensions and risk aversion continue to drive AUD sentiment. • AUD/USD steadies from two days of decline, trading at about 0.6530. • US economic indicators, such as GDP and unemployment claims, favored the US Dollar. • Market participants expect the US PCE Price Index, the Fed’s inflation metric of choice. • President Trump’s proposal to impose 100% tariffs on imported medicines stimulated risk aversion. • Australia’s initial S&P Global PMIs show slowing manufacturing and services growth. • RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized loosened labor market conditions and preparedness to react to economic shifts. • Technical levels: support at 0.6483 and 0.6414; resistance at 0.6550 and 0.6581. The Australian Dollar has remained resilient against the US Dollar in the face of headwinds presented by global and domestic events. Risk aversion picked up after US President Trump revealed plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, fueling concerns over trade tensions. Meanwhile, decelerating economic growth in Australia, captured in downbeat preliminary S&P Global PMIs in manufacturing and services, has lent credence to risk-aversion sentiment among investors and traders. AUD/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView Market players are particularly focused on future US economic information, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has taken a cautious approach, noting marginally softened labor market conditions and reinforcing preparedness to address shifting economic conditions. Generally, the AUD is charting a highly uncertain environment constructed from both internal economic indicators and global events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is below significant short-term indicators, indicating a defensive market leaning. The pair is still below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating declining short-term momentum, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 shows bearish pressure continues. A support level is visible at the monthly low of 0.6483, with a lower floor near 0.6414, while resistance levels are indicated by the 50-day EMA at 0.6550 and nine-day EMA at 0.6581. A breakout above these resistance levels could indicate a possible recovery, while a break below support would continue the downtrend. FORECAST AUD/USD might experience further selling pressure as long as risk aversion prevails and US economic news continues to favor the further strengthening of the US Dollar. A fall below the initial support of 0.6483 would propel the pair towards the three-month low of 0.6414, marking a possible extension of the bearish trend. On the other hand, in case of weaker-than-expected future US PCE inflation readings or hints of a dovish Fed policy, the Aussie can rally again. In that case, a break above the 50-day EMA level of 0.6550 and the nine-day EMA level of 0.6581 can set the way for higher levels, with the 11-month high of 0.6707 emerging as a potential medium-term target.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies as Bets on Fed Rate Cut Rise and China’s Soft Inflation Dims Outlook

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  • September 10, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) steadied on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses as prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September improved sentiment, while weakening bets of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut added to support. Yet, the currency came under pressure following China’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline of 0.4% year-on-year, which reflected lingering economic softness in Australia’s biggest trade partner. Better domestic data, such as a larger trade surplus, improved Q2 GDP growth, and hotter July inflation, have served to contain risks to the downside for the AUD. Market attention turns to the forthcoming US inflation data, which may offer clearer signals for the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Over 93% chances of September 25 bps cut priced in by markets can weigh on the US Dollar and lift the AUD. • 0.4% YoY drop in August CPI is a sign of weak demand in China, which may put pressure on the Australian Dollar because of trade relationships. • Huge trade surplus, GDP expansion, and hotter inflation diminish prospects of imminent RBA rate cuts, providing AUD with some grounding. • This week’s US PPI and CPI reports will be important in gauging the direction of Fed policy and AUD/USD action. The Australian Dollar fluctuated with strength on Wednesday, aided by increasing expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate reduction and diminishing prospects of near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Sturdy domestic underpinnings in the form of a bigger trade surplus, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth, and increased July inflation countered the negative pressure from subdued Chinese inflation data that declined more than anticipated and reflects continued economic weakness in Australia’s main trading partner. As markets placed more than 93% probability of a Fed cut this month, the focus now shifts to future US inflation releases, which may steer the next big move in the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar remained stable as bets on Fed rate cuts improved sentiment, with top-tier Australian data capping downside risks. Weak Chinese inflation, however, kept the currency under pressure, with the focus now shifting to pivotal US inflation reports for direction. • The Australian Dollar stabilized as anticipation for a September Federal Reserve rate reduction grew stronger. • RBA rate cut expectations have eased on the back of Australia’s firmer trade surplus, GDP expansion, and hotter July inflation. • China’s CPI dropped 0.4% YoY in August, pointing to continued weakness in Australia’s major trading partner’s economy. • Markets now place in excess of 93% probability of a Fed 25 bps reduction this month, from 86% last week. • US Nonfarm Payrolls increased a meager 22,000 in August, well short of projections, while unemployment ticked higher to 4.3%. • Australian consumer confidence has deteriorated, portending possible requirement for future RBA easing despite short-term stability. • Market attention turns to the coming US PPI and CPI releases, which will be instrumental for setting Fed policy expectations and AUD/USD direction. The Australian Dollar gained some stability during the middle of the week as markets factored in firmer chances of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and dovish expectations on short-term Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) action provided further support. The economic environment for Australia is still quite solid, with a larger July trade surplus, better-than-forecast second-quarter GDP growth, and hotter-than-expected July inflation supporting the case for the RBA to keep policy unchanged in the near term. All these have assisted in protecting the AUD from external pressures, especially from China’s softer economic performance. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, highlighting weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy and Australia’s most important trading partner. This puts in doubt how weakness in China can spill into Australian exports. While in the United States, the labor market is softer than earlier anticipated, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling below forecast and benchmark revisions indicating weaker employment growth. Market players now await US inflation reports, which will probably determine the next move by the Federal Reserve and affect overall currency market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD currency pair trades around 0.6580, showing a bullish inclination within its daily chart rising channel. The price stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6556, which indicates short-term buying momentum. The immediate resistance is the 10-month high of 0.6625 in late July, followed by the top of the rising channel at around 0.6640. A break above this range could provide the catalyst for a move towards the 11-month high of 0.6687. Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6550–0.6556 area would undermine the bullish thesis, with the 50-day EMA level of 0.6512 being the next main support. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may get additional traction if future US inflation reports support the September Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. A dovish Fed perspective, combined with Australia’s stronger trade surplus, Q2 GDP growth, and higher July inflation, may aid further strength in the AUD/USD pair. A continuation above the 0.6625–0.6640 resistance area will most likely persuade buyers to move towards the 11-month high of 0.6687. On the other hand, poor Chinese economic figures keep bearing down on sentiment, and any additional weakness in demand may cap the Australian Dollar’s upside. Unless the AUD/USD pair manages to stay above the 0.6550 support zone, it may move down towards the 50-day EMA level of 0.6512, with even deeper losses revealing the three-month low of 0.6414. Also, better-than-anticipated US inflation readings will postpone Fed easing intentions, providing the US Dollar renewed vigor and pushing the pair lower.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stable as US Dollar Strengthens as Key US-China Trade Negotiations and Economic Data Are Released

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  • July 29, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is stable at 0.6520 in Tuesday’s Asian session, after three sessions of decline, as US Dollar (USD) gains on optimism about trade again. One of the main points of interest for traders is the return of US-China trade negotiations, which follow days of long-term negotiations in Stockholm and seek to lengthen the current trade truce. In the meantime, the latest US-EU trade agreement, which levies 15% tariffs on most European imports, has also supported the USD. Market participants also await crucial economic data, including Australia’s June labor force and Q2 inflation figures, which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will closely monitor ahead of any policy decisions. Technical indicators show a weakening momentum for AUD/USD, with the pair trading below the nine-day EMA and the RSI slipping under 50. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors remain focused on the result of restarted trade talks, designed to lengthen the current truce and conclude a comprehensive tariff deal. • The newly released US-EU agreement, placing 15% tariffs on European products, remains favorable for the US Dollar and might bear down on AUD/USD further. • The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely make its rate decision based on the forthcoming June labor market data and Q2 CPI releases, both due later this week. • The US Federal Reserve meeting and press conference in July will be watched closely for any indication of possible rate cuts from September. Australian Dollar is trading around the 0.6520 level as the US Dollar gains on fresh trade optimism and a new trade agreement between the US and the EU. Market participants wait for the result of US-China trade negotiations that resumed after protracted talks in Stockholm and hope to prolong the existing truce and agree on a long-term pact. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching closely for the June labor force data as well as second-quarter inflation readings, both of which will have an important bearing on its next policy move. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve’s next meeting and any indication of future rate cuts will also be a significant driver of AUD/USD action in the near term. The Australian Dollar is flat around 0.6520 while the US Dollar gains on optimism about trade. The markets look to US-China trade negotiations and major Australian economic releases. RBA and Fed policy cues will be important for the direction of the pair. • AUD/USD is around 0.6520, consolidating the previous three losing sessions. • US Dollar finds support from a newly agreed US-EU trade pact with 15% tariffs on European products. • US-China trade talks resumed in Stockholm to continue the trade truce and set long-term tariff terms. • The RBA is paying close attention to June labor force data and Q2 CPI numbers in preparing its policy decisions. • The Fed will likely keep rates unchanged at the July meeting, with the market looking out for signs of September rate cuts. • Technicals reveal weakness in AUD/USD as the pair continues to trade below the 9-day EMA and RSI falls below 50. • Market sentiment continues to remain cautious as traders responded to both global trade news and domestic economic indicators. The Australian Dollar continues to hold relatively firm as market players turn their attention to upcoming global trade news and major economic indicators. US-China trade talks resumption has garnered much focus, particularly following a prolonged Stockholm meeting of top officials that had the objective of clearing impasses and extending the ongoing trade truce. The talks are coming as early as the August 12 deadline for sealing a comprehensive pact with the US is near, further fueling market expectations. In the meantime, the latest US-EU trade pact has given the US Dollar a leg up, strengthening its position in a number of key currency pairs. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely take a close look at the next month’s June labor force report and second-quarter inflation readings before setting any monetary policy. These numbers are said to be important in deciding whether more policy relaxation is needed in the next several months. The market is also waiting for hints from the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting, especially any guidance on possible rate cuts this year. With both global and domestic forces coming together, the future direction of the Australian Dollar will then be reliant on the outcomes of these major events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is quoted at 0.6520 and below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which reflects a weakening short-term momentum. The pair is still trading in an upward channel, which is generally a bullish formation; however, the recent fall in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the 50 level reflects growing bearish pressure. This discrepancy between the wider channel support and the short-term indicators suggests possible consolidation or a minor corrective phase unless bullish momentum returns to strength. Market players will be monitoring a strong breakout above the EMA or a breakdown beneath the channel support to establish the next directional bias. FORECAST If favorable momentum returns, the AUD/USD currency pair would have a possibility to bounce towards the 0.6560 resistance level if US-China trade negotiations reveal positive developments or if Australia’s future labor force and inflation reports surprise to the upside. A dovish US Federal Reserve turn or evidence of economic strength in Australia can also favor the pair. Crossing above the nine-day EMA and showing renewed momentum in the RSI would also confirm a bull reversal. Downside risks, however, remain should US Dollar strength continue under trade optimism and calm Fed policy indications. AUD/USD then could find it difficult to sustain current positions, and hence might fall to the 0.6480 or even 0.6450 support levels. Poor Australian economic reports or rising global risk aversion could enhance the slide. A further breakdown below the EMA and prolonged RSI weakness would strengthen bearish views in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Gains on Strong Chinese Figures and USD Weakness Before US CPI Release

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  • July 15, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rose higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, boosted by better-than-predicted economic indicators in China—Australia’s major trade partner—and weakening USD before the release of the US CPI. The Q2 GDP in China rose 5.2% year-over-year, beating estimates, and Industrial Production also surpassed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions such as threats from ex-US President Trump of tariffs weighed on the US Dollar, together with market prudence leading up to the critical inflation data. Local confidence in Australia slightly improved but concerns persist regarding the RBA’s rate outlook, with inflation risks and global uncertainties still in the spotlight. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Consumer Price Index report next is being closely monitored by investors, which would potentially affect the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in the future and US dollar strength. • Even though rates remained unchanged in July, the prospects of an impending August rate cut still loom, particularly with inflation threats and subdued productivity in focus by RBA officials. • Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese can influence future trade and drive AUD sentiment. • Trump’s suggested tariffs on Russia, EU, and Mexico and secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers could drive global market volatility and shape USD movements. Australian Dollar is strengthening against the US Dollar, supported by positive economic reports from China and a muted greenback in anticipation of the release of critical US inflation data. Recent better-than-expected GDP and Industrial Production figures from China have enhanced sentiment toward the AUD, as Australian trade connections are strong with China. In contrast, geopolitical tensions—such as Trump’s recent tariff threats and international trade tensions—have weighed on the USD. Locally, Australia’s consumer confidence registered a slight increase, but doubts continue regarding the next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as inflation. The focus now shifts to the coming US CPI numbers, which have the potential to be a turning point for the short-term trajectory of the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar surged as optimistic Chinese economic figures improved investor mood, while the US Dollar declined in anticipation of crucial CPI releases. Geopolitical tensions and RBA policy uncertainty are still shaping market action. US inflation releases are awaited for additional guidance on AUD/USD direction. • AUD/USD up as impressive Chinese GDP and Industrial Production statistics improve optimism. • China’s Q2 GDP up 5.2% YoY, better than expectations of 5.1%, which supports the Aussie Dollar. • US Dollar falls in anticipation of significant CPI numbers, providing AUD/USD with upside tailwind. • Geopolitics escalates with Trump threatening fresh tariffs against Russia, EU, and Mexico. • RBA leaves rates unchanged, with potential cut in August due to inflation fears and poor productivity. • Australia’s Consumer Confidence increased modestly by 0.6% in July, reflecting modest optimism. • AUD/USD technicals exhibit bullish bias, trading close to 0.6550 in an uptrending channel. The Australian Dollar was supported on Tuesday by solid economic data from China—Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year was higher than market forecast, while Industrial Production was also better than expected. These supportive data points boosted market sentiment in the Australian economy, given its high trade linkage with China. Also, a minor increase in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence showed cautious optimism from households, even as cost-of-living pressures persist and the interest rate outlook remains uncertain. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, world geopolitical events have given rise to a more conservative trading climate. Threats by the former US President Donald Trump to apply very harsh tariffs on Russia, along with so-called secondary tariffs on nations that import Russian oil, have boosted fears about growing trade tensions. Additional suggested tariffs on imports of the European Union and Mexico have contributed to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US government registered a June budget surplus powered mainly by record customs duty receipts, underscoring the increasing influence of trade policy on economic performance. These events continue to influence market mood throughout the lead-up to the US CPI report. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is exhibiting a mild bullish inclination as it hovers around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6550, aided by an uptrend channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the neutral 50 level, indicating that buyers continue to have a small advantage. A break above the recent high of 0.6595 would open the doors for additional gains towards the upper end of the channel at 0.6690. On the bearish side, support is immediately available at the lower edge of the upward channel at 0.6520, with more robust support at the 50-day EMA at 0.6488. FORECAST As long as the positive momentum prevails, particularly if it is supported by a softer US CPI figure or better risk appetite, the AUD/USD rate may try to break above the recent high of 0.6595. A breach of this level may draw fresh buying interest, boosting the pair to the upper edge of the rising channel in the region of 0.6690. Moreover, favorable news from the ongoing China-Australia trade talks or the easing of international tensions may further support the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if US inflation figures are hotter than anticipated, this could revive expectations for extended higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, bolstering the US Dollar and applying pressure on AUD/USD. A fall below near-term support at 0.6520 would risk deeper losses, potentially down to the 50-day EMA around 0.6488 or even the three-week low of 0.6485. Increasing geopolitical tensions or Reserve Bank of Australia dovish hints may also put pressure on the Aussie in the short term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Moves Back Towards 0.6500 as Soft US Data Deters Dollar Strength

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  • June 4, 2025
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AUD/USD currency pair moved back higher on Wednesday, moving back towards the 0.6500 level as the US Dollar fell back after weaker-than-anticipated economic data. Even with the news that Australia’s GDP grew at only 0.2% in Q1 and saw its business activity barely move in May, the Australian Dollar picked up following the deterioration in the Greenback. US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI both came in below expectations, indicating a deceleration in the US economy and stoking speculation of a Federal Reserve policy change. The pair’s rally shows the market’s responsiveness to US macroeconomic data, with more to come before Australia’s trade numbers and the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS • A vital determinant that may impact Fed rate expectations and trigger meaningful USD movement. •  Could offer short-term guidance on the AUD based on export result and trade surplus data. • A significant psychological and technical level; a clean breakout might indicate additional bullish pressure. •  Market sentiment for a dovish tilt may continue to press on the US Dollar if weak data continues. AUD/USD pair is displaying strength, rebounding against the critical 0.6500 level as the US Dollar falters with dismal economic reports. Disappointing employment figures from the ADP and an unexpected weakening in the ISM Services PMI have created doubts regarding the vigour of the US economy, fueling speculation regarding a possible policy change from the Federal Reserve. Even though Australia’s own weaker GDP growth and muted PMI readings failed to make a dent, the Australian Dollar recovered later from early losses on technical support around the 0.6450 level. Attention now turns to subsequent Australian trade data and the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may provide the pair with fresh impetus. AUD/USD recovered to around 0.6500 as the US Dollar softened on weak jobs and services data. In spite of Australia’s poor GDP, the Aussie was supported by technical buying and USD weakness. Traders now look for Australia’s trade data and the US NFP report for direction. • AUD/USD recovered back to 0.6500, recovering losses from weak Australian GDP data. •  US Dollar lower following underwhelming ADP employment (37,000 vs. 115,000 anticipated) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 anticipated). • Australian Q1 GDP eased to 0.2% QoQ, the weakest expansion in three quarters, below forecasts of 0.4%. • S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs indicated limited growth, with readings hovering marginally above 50. • Technical floor at 0.6450 remained in place, triggering fresh AUD buying interest. • DXY (US Dollar Index) fell below 99.00, indicative of broad USD weakness in the face of weak US data. • The next major move in the pair is most likely to be influenced by upcoming Australian trade data and US Nonfarm Payrolls. The Australian currency strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, primarily fueled by a weakening Greenback in the wake of softer-than-projected US economic data. The ADP Employment Change report showed a sharp deceleration of hiring, with private companies adding just 37,000 jobs in May — the weakest in more than a year. Further, the ISM Services PMI dipped into contraction ground for the first time this year, an indication of a larger moderation in the services sector. These points have provoked alarm regarding the health of the U.S. economy and heightened market speculation surrounding a possible change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, Australia’s domestic data showed a mixed reading. Although GDP growth eased to 0.2% for the first quarter, the lowest rate in three quarters, the economy maintained its record of unbroken expansion. The most recent PMI readings revealed marginal movement in business activity, and overall indicative of a generally slow but stable economic climate. As focus shifts now towards Australia’s next trade balance and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, market players continue to watch closely how changing economic indicators will influence central bank projections and currency action over the next few days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is pointing towards a rebound after it encountered solid support around the 0.6450 level, which has served as a floor in successive sessions. The pair is currently hinting at testing the 0.6500 psychological resistance, a level that has halted rallies on several occasions, meaning that a decisive breakout above it may pave the way for further gains. Momentum tools such as the RSI are slowly shifting into positive territory, reflecting renewed buying demand. But persistence above 0.6500 is the key to establishing a bullish breakout, while a failure to break this level might lead to further consolidation around the range thus far. FORECAST AUD/USD exchange rate manages to move above the 0.6500 resistance level, it might initiate further bullish momentum, particularly if future releases from Australia indicate a higher trade surplus or in case the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes short. A breakthrough above this psychological level might unlock the way to the next resistance around 0.6550 or further, as sentiment towards the Australian Dollar improves. Further deterioration in US economic data could also generate speculation regarding further Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting the pair. To the downside, a failure to break the 0.6500 barrier could produce fresh selling pressure, with the pair likely to retest support around the 0.6450 area. A better-than-expected US jobs report or more hawkish Fed commentary might revive demand for the US Dollar, taking AUD/USD down. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair might drift towards 0.6400, particularly if Australian trade data disappoints or global risk sentiment deteriorates.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Slumps Close to 0.6300 in Face of Growing Risk Aversion and US Tariff Fears

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  • March 21, 2025
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The AUD/USD has fallen towards the 0.6300 level as risk aversion increases following increased concerns regarding US tariff policy, increasing the demand for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. The Australian Dollar is still on the back foot due to soft domestic jobs data, which is making traders revalue the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy perspective. As US bond yields fall as investors flock to Treasuries for safety, Fed Chair Jerome Powell conceded the difficulty in assessing the wider inflationary effects of tariffs even as he minimized their near-term impact. Cautious market sentiment prevails as economic uncertainties and changing central bank expectations remain at the helm of currency fluctuations. KEY LOOKOUTS • Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar could continue to weigh on AUD/USD amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. • Market players closely monitor RBA’s policy, with lower jobs data fuelling speculation over possible rate reductions in the months ahead. • Future US releases of data, particularly inflation and employment, will be pivotal to influencing Fed policy expectations and USD direction. • Any intensification of US tariff news or overall risk sentiment would further fuel volatility and influence AUD/USD direction. The AUD/USD is still closely watched as several factors have been guiding its path. Increasing US Dollar demand amid surging risks aversion and US tariff policy concerns continues to press the key Australia Dollar. Meanwhile, weak Australian labor market statistics have prompted traders to re-evaluate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy tone, raising speculation of future rate cuts. Market players are also eyeing future US economic data, which might further affect Federal Reserve expectations and currency fluctuations. Changes in global sentiment or intensification of tensions relating to trade might contribute to volatility in the pair. AUD/USD remains around 0.6300 due to safe-haven demand pushing the US Dollar higher in light of increasing US tariff tensions. Downbeat Australian jobs data adds to the pressure, stoking speculation regarding future RBA rate cuts. Markets now look for major US economic indicators for guidance. • AUD/USD is trading around 0.6300, pressured by increasing risk aversion and increased US Dollar demand. • Safe-haven flows support USD, fueled by US tariff policy concerns and worldwide economic uncertainty. • US bond yields fall as investors turn to Treasuries for safety amid market and geopolitical uncertainty. • Fed Chair Powell minimizes inflation effect of tariffs, but admits difficulty in measuring broader economic impacts. • US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K, narrowly missing forecasts and contributing to risk-averse market sentiment. • Australian Dollar weakens after disappointing jobs data raise the alarm over the health of the labor market. • RBA policy outlook questioned, with markets speculating over future rate cuts despite the central bank’s conservatism. The Australian Dollar is facing pressure as global market sentiment shifts towards caution with increasing worries over US trade policies. Investors are now betting on the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency as anxiety rises about future economic shocks resulting from new tariffs from the US. This greater risk-aversion is fuelling currency market direction, and market participants watch closely for events in geopolitics and policy communications by large economies. Financial markets are more in defensive mood today, propelling demand towards defensive assets and impacting currency prices internationally. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView To this conservative mood comes the additional news of weaker-than-forecast employment figures from Australia. The unemployment rate having held steady, the fall in overall employment created renewed doubts about the vigor of the nation’s labor market. Consequently, market players are reviewing again the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path and more speculation about additional scope for cutting interest rates. Yet, the central bank has been cautious in tone, hinting at a cautious and data-driven policy in the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is still under sustained bearish pressure, trading around the important psychological support level of 0.6300. The pair still trades below important moving averages, showing a consistent downtrend. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicate a bearish bias, but not yet oversold, with scope for further decline. Any decisive break below 0.6300 could take the pair deeper into support levels, while any recovery attempt could be resisted around the 0.6350–0.6380 area. Traders are likely to observe these levels closely for possible breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST If sentiment in the market picks up and risk appetite comes back, AUD/USD may recover modestly. A recovery in global equities or a relief on US tariff concerns might dampen the safe-haven bid for the US Dollar, providing some relief to the Australian Dollar. Any surprise upside in Australian economic data or a more dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could also induce a short-term rebound. In this case, the duo might try to retest resistance levels of 0.6350 and possibly 0.6380 if bullish sentiment gathers pace. On the bearish side, ongoing risk aversion and lingering worries about global trade tensions might keep AUD/USD under selling pressure. A strong US Dollar, supported by safe-haven flows and robust US economic data, might push the pair below the pivotal 0.6300 level. If this support is convincingly violated, subsequent falls toward 0.6250 or even 0.6200 cannot be discounted. Further, any subsequent indications of weakness in the labor market of Australia or dovish rhetoric from the RBA would bolster the bearish outlook for the Australian Dollar in the near term.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Consolidates Strength on Economic Data and US Dollar Weakness as Major Events Loom

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  • March 5, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate its strength as the US Dollar (USD) stays weak in the face of economic uncertainty and the pending major data releases. Australia’s GDP growth beat forecasts in Q4 2024, bolstering confidence in the economy, while China’s better-than-expected Services PMI further underpinned the AUD. On the other hand, the US is grappling with rising trade policy concerns as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled potential reappraisal of Trump’s tariffs that have already influenced market mood. The AUD/USD pair is quoted around 0.6260, with technicals indicating support at the nine-day EMA and potential downward risks if major support levels are breached. While the market waits for the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, AUD’s strength is once again the currency market focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, beating forecast, affirming economic strength and backing the Australian Dollar during global uncertainty. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested President Trump is considering reversing recently raised tariffs, injecting uncertainty into the US Dollar and affecting market sentiment. • China’s Services PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.4, signaling steady economic growth and offering indirect support to the AUD through trade relations. • The upcoming ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change could influence the USD’s trajectory, shaping short-term movements in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching key economic and policy developments impacting the Australian Dollar and US Dollar. Australia’s better-than-anticipated Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% has strengthened optimism in the economy, while China’s better Services PMI indicates stable growth, indirectly benefiting the AUD. In contrast, uncertainty surrounds US trade policy, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting that President Trump might roll back recently imposed tariffs, creating market volatility. With the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change due for release, investors are weighing the possible influence on the USD, which is still under pressure. These factors combined determine the short-term direction of AUD/USD, with traders keeping an eye on technical support and resistance levels. Australia’s robust Q4 GDP expansion and China’s better Services PMI underpin the Australian Dollar, while uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy continues to keep the USD under pressure. Market participants are looking for pivotal US economic data releases, including ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, to gauge the influence on AUD/USD momentum. • Q4 2024 GDP expanded 0.6% QoQ, above market expectations and further underpinning economic resilience. • The USD is under pressure with market sentiment weighed down by economic uncertainties and trade policy issues. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted Trump might revisit recently imposed tariffs, injecting volatility in the forex market. • The sudden spike to 51.4 indicates consistent economic growth, implicitly backing the Australian Dollar. • Speculators look out for confirmation of releases of major US economic data to determine the short-term direction of the USD. • The two trade close to 0.6260, with support at 0.6271 (nine-day EMA) and possible downside towards 0.6187. • Global trade uncertainty and economic data continue to play a crucial role in driving movements of the forex market, determining AUD/USD trends. The Australian Dollar continues to be strong amidst major economic events and international trade uncertainties. Australia’s GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4 was above market forecasts, indicating the strength of the economy despite global difficulties. Also, China’s better-than-anticipated Services PMI at 51.4 indicates consistent growth, indirectly favoring the AUD because of robust trade relations between the two countries. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still evaluating economic risks, with policymakers keeping a close eye on inflation and labor market performance to inform future monetary policy. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade policy continues to be a pressing issue, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that President Trump might revisit the recently levied tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the trade actions has caused apprehension regarding their long-term effects on economic growth and global trade patterns. Additionally, the US suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, creating yet another layer of geopolitical stress for the market. While investors wait for major US economic releases, such as ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, sentiment in the market is subdued, with attention to economic stability and policy guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6260, with sideways action as the market conditions are evaluated by traders. The pair has immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6271, and a stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of about 0.6303. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, which reflects a risk-averse market sentiment with weak bullish pressure. On the negative side, the major support is at 0.6187, the four-week low seen on March 5. A fall below this level might trigger further drops to 0.6087. With future US economic data releases, AUD/USD price movements might experience greater volatility, impacting short-term technical trends. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) can witness further gains if economic data keeps supporting positive sentiment in the market. With Australia’s Q4 GDP beating forecasts and China’s economic data indicating resilience, the AUD has fundamentals to support gains. If risk sentiment remains steady globally and US economic worries continue, the AUD/USD currency pair can challenge resistance around 0.6300 in the near future. Also, any signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding holding or changing monetary policy could affect investor sentiment and add more support for the currency pair. Downside-wise, the AUD/USD pair remains susceptible to external threats from US trade policy and economic uncertainty in the world. If the US Dollar strengthens on more robust-than-anticipated economic news or a change in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the pair might experience fresh selling pressure. A breakdown below the key support of 0.6187 would initiate a more severe pullback to 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020. Also, geopolitical tensions, including the US suspension of military assistance to Ukraine, may enhance market volatility, which would trigger risk-off sentiment to weigh on the Australian Dollar.

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