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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of US NFP Amid Trade Optimism and Mixed Economic Signals

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  • August 1, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) stabilized on Friday, ending its six-day decline as markets became cautious before the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. The currency was supported after President Trump left Australia off the list of countries subject to new US tariff increases, with a 10% baseline tariff being kept in place that would favor Australian exports. Better-than-expected domestic data, such as retail sales and building permits, offered additional insulation, in spite of lower-than-anticipated inflation and producer prices. Soft Chinese manufacturing numbers, however, topping Australia’s biggest trading partner, placed a cap on gains. Following traders’ expectations of US labor market data and continued global trade news, the AUD/USD pair is stuck in a range, trading around 0.6430. KEY LOOKOUTS • There is a wait for US jobs data, which may have an impact on the Fed’s rate perspective and be the driver of USD strength or weakness and hence AUD/USD volatility. • Australia’s exemption from US tariff increases favors AUD sentiment and makes exports to the US market more competitive. • Weak Chinese PMI data is a bear risk to the AUD because Australia has significant trade exposure to China. • AUD/USD is resisted at 0.6487 (9-day EMA) and supported at 0.6421; a break in either direction might decide the short-term trend. The Australian Dollar remained firm on Friday, buoyed by trade sentiment after the US confirmed that Australia would not be slapped with higher tariffs, maintaining its competitiveness advantage in the US market. Even with persistent vigor in the US Dollar and softer Chinese manufacturing figures, the Aussie gained little respite from improved-than-anticipated local retail sales and building approvals. Investors are still wary of the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement, which may have a strong bearing on market sentiment and exchange rates. With divided economic indicators and geopolitical intrigue on the table, the AUD/USD pair continues to fluctuate around the 0.6430 level with scarce momentum in either direction. The Australian Dollar held firm at 0.6430 as market players waited for the US Nonfarm Payrolls data release. Encouragement was provided by firm Australian retail sales and relief from US tariff increases, though poor Chinese manufacturing data capped upside potential. • AUD/USD held firm at 0.6430, bringing an end to a six-day slide in cautious market sentiment. • Australia avoided new US tariffs, with a 10% baseline remaining, which is favorable for export competitiveness. • US Nonfarm Payrolls report is eagerly awaited, with the ability to influence USD strength and move AUD/USD. • Australia’s Retail Sales increased 1.2% MoM in June, coming in above consensus and reflecting strong consumer spending. • Building Permits increased 11.9% MoM, the best growth since May 2023. • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction and dampening AUD sentiment. •  Technical indicators are bearish, with AUD/USD below the 9-day EMA and RSI at less than 50. The Australian Dollar gained stability leading into the weekend as traders redirected attention to next week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The currency received mild support from the United States’ move to leave baseline tariffs on Australian imports in place, continuing to provide exporters with access to the US market without other trade restrictions. Australia’s Trade Minister highlighted the benefit this confers on Australian goods, helping lift volumes of exports. Locally, the economy continued to demonstrate resilience, with retail sales increasing more than anticipated in June and building permits registering a strong revival, indicative of strengthened momentum in consumer spending and housing activity. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nevertheless, external conditions remain threatening, specifically from China, Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Caixin and official PMI both reported weakening manufacturing conditions, emblematic of widespread economic woes. Although China’s government has pledged heightened fiscal stimulus to combat internal headwinds, the slowdown spells anxiety for Australia’s commodity-reliant economy. At the same time, global trade trends continue to be in sharp focus as the US executes new tariff agreements with other nations. The Australian Dollar is still responsive to such cross-border movement, as investors gauge how new policy and economic developments could affect the short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair still displays a bearish inclination, trading below important moving averages. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral 50 line, indicating poor momentum. The two are still trading below the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which adds to the short-term bearish pressure. The nearest support is at 0.6421, two-month low, with a possible slide towards three-month low of 0.6372 if selling increases. On the other hand, the resistance is around the 9-day EMA at 0.6487 and the 50-day EMA at 0.6495, which must be broken for any indication of recovery. FORECAST Should the next US Nonfarm Payrolls release be weaker than anticipated, it might cause a pullback in the US Dollar and provide room for the Australian Dollar to rebound. A break above the 9-day EMA at 0.6487 might convince buyers to drive the pair towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6495. Additional bullish push may continue to drive the rally towards the 0.6625 level, which is the eight-month high, particularly if solid Australian economic data and improving global risk appetite are maintained. On the other hand, better-than-expected US labor market statistics can spur expectations for a tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, which will support the US Dollar and bear down on the AUD/USD pair. A clear break below current immediate support at 0.6421 would set the stage for a more substantial drop to 0.6372, the three-month low. Further China’s economic indicators weakening or increased tensions in global trade could further depress AUD sentiment, having the pair in downward motion.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Battered as RBA Caution, US Dollar Strength, and International Trade Tensions Deter Sentiment

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  • July 22, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) is continuing to feel the heat against the US Dollar (USD) as risk appetite is reduced and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sticks to its cautious approach to monetary easing. The publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes served to emphasize a reluctance to move before seeing more definitive signs of slowing inflation, to temper AUD momentum. Concurrently, overseas uncertainties such as rising US-China trade tensions, speculation regarding the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and conflicting signals surrounding US monetary policy have favored the revival of the US Dollar. With China leaving its Loan Prime Rates steady and economic indicators revealing unequal recovery, the AUD/USD currency pair still hovers around 0.6520, with resistance at the nine-day EMA. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market is monitoring closely for hints at the timing and magnitude of possible rate reductions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, particularly under uncertainty surrounding inflation. • Any news prior to the August 12 deadline regarding the US-China tariff deal could weigh heavily on risk sentiment and affect the AUD. •USD movements continue to be fueled by ongoing issues surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve and rate cut hopes. •Given its status as Australia’s major trading partner, China’s GDP growth, retail sales, and industrial output releases will remain pivotal in determining the direction of AUD. The Australian Dollar is weaker against the US Dollar as risk-off sentiment in world markets. The July Meeting Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia reaffirmed a wait-and-watch strategy towards further cuts in rates, waiting to see clear evidence of falling inflation. At the same time, the US Dollar is supported by safe-haven demand, increased geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the policy orientation and leadership stability of the Federal Reserve. With Chinese economic data showing mixed signals and trade tensions with the US remaining, the outlook for the AUD is unclear, which continues to keep the AUD/USD pair muted around the 0.6520 level. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure on defensive RBA policy cues and world risk aversion. The US Dollar is strong on safe-haven buying and increased uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership and trade war tensions. The AUD/USD currency pair trades at around 0.6520, pinned back by the nine-day EMA. • The Australian Dollar is still low after the RBA being cautious about rate cuts. •  RBA Meeting Minutes indicate members would rather wait for more certain evidence of slowing inflation. •  US Dollar strengthens in response to safe-haven buying and uncertainty around the Fed. •  US-China trade tensions rise ahead of the August 12 tariff agreement deadline. •  China leaves its Loan Prime Rates unchanged; mixed economic releases put pressure on AUD. •  Speculation surrounding Fed Chair Powell’s future contributes to market uncertainty. •  AUD/USD trades near 0.6520, testing resistance at the nine-day EMA with support around 0.6493. The Australian Dollar remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to adopt a cautious approach to monetary policy. The central bank’s July Meeting Minutes revealed that most members agreed it would be premature to implement further rate cuts without clear evidence of slowing inflation. This conservative tone indicates a desire for stability and a slow path to economic adjustments. At the same time, international investors are keenly observing Australia’s economic relationships with China, particularly as China’s economic performance remains a sign of uneven recovery. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Internationally, the US Dollar is being supported by increased risk aversion and speculation regarding the direction and leadership of the Federal Reserve. Increasing confusion surrounding US-China trade negotiations and Washington’s political tensions, such as controversies surrounding Fed Chair Powell’s role, are creating a conservative market climate. Furthermore, conflicting messages from US policymakers concerning interest rate policy are keeping market participants nervous. These international forces, paired with Australia’s domestic policy landscape, are helping to drive the performance of the Australian Dollar in the currency market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6520, just below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6524 that provides immediate resistance. The pair is currently in an uptrend channel, which also indicates a possible bullish tilt in case it crosses this level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the neutral 50 level, meaning that there is no sufficient momentum in either direction. On the flip side, the 50-day EMA at 0.6493 is the major support level; a clear break below here would set the stage towards the lower limit of the channel at about 0.6470. FORECAST If the AUD/USD currency pair is able to close above the short-term resistance at the nine-day EMA level of 0.6524, it may become bullish again on a short-term basis. A closing move above this level could take the pair to the recent high of 0.6595, which appeared on July 11. Any favorable news in international trade negotiations or a change of tone from RBA for a more favorable economic outlook could also go in favor of further upward movement. To the downside, a failure to stay above 50-day EMA support at 0.6493 may spark more falls. A break below here would tend to target the uptrend channel’s lower edge around 0.6470, with further losses threatening the three-week low of 0.6454. Ongoing risk aversion, weak Chinese economic reports, or unexpectedly strong US reports might press further on the Australian Dollar.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Bounces Back with Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty

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  • June 18, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) modestly rebounded against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday despite risk aversion dampened by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The rebound follows after the AUD/USD pair incurred more than 0.50% losses in the last session. In spite of risk-off sentiment that is still prevalent because of continued hostilities between Iran and Israel, the AUD was supported by a weaker US Dollar, held down by poor US retail sales statistics and expectations that interest rates at present levels will be kept by the Federal Reserve. Investors also watch for further updates on Australian labor market statistics and other global trade and political tensions for new directional signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • Israel-Iran conflict will continue to bear on risk sentiment and facilitate safe-haven flows to the US Dollar. • Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement in June and expect none but increasing speculation for rate cuts in September and October. • Later this week, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will feed into RBA’s policy view and drive AUD action. • AUD/USD faces key resistance at the nine-day EMA (0.6495) and June’s high (0.6552), with potential to climb further if these levels are breached. Australian Dollar managed to edge higher against the US Dollar despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and a generally risk-averse market environment. The rebound comes after a steep fall in the previous session, supported by softer-than-expected US retail sales figures and a weaker US Dollar as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s policy statement. Investors are still wary of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and are watching closely for Australia’s impending labor market data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy trajectory. Technical indicators indicate that AUD/USD pair is trading within an uptrend channel, indicating a cautiously positive tone for the pair in the short term. The Australian Dollar recovers despite increased geopolitical tensions and risk-off mood. Deteriorating US retail sales and weaker Greenback provide short-term support to AUD/USD. Markets currently expect the Fed’s policy announcement and Australia’s labor figures for additional guidance. •  The Australian Dollar recovered from its 0.50% loss in the last session. •  AUD/USD is under pressure from subdued risk appetite owing to Israel-Iran tensions. •  The US Dollar came under pressure following poor US retail sales prints (-0.9% in May). •  The Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates steady in June. •  Markets are factoring in near-term Fed rate cuts in September and October. •  Australia’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures are coming later this week. •  Technically, AUD/USD is ranging within an upward channel, reflecting a conservative bullish inclination. The Australian Dollar is demonstrating strength in the face of difficult global environment characterized by rising geo-political tensions. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains to influence investor appetite, with worries of greater regional instability heightened. In a significant diplomatic initiative, Iran has approached Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia and asked them to call on U.S. leadership for a ceasefire at the earliest. These developments have strengthened safe-haven demand, especially of the US Dollar, with market participants being prepared for potential escalations that may cause churn in global markets and energy supplies. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, economic indicators from the US and China are affecting the overall market mood. US retail sales declined deeper than anticipated in May, indicative of weakening consumer spending. This has supported speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon look at policy easing, with markets looking for possible rate reductions later this year. Conversely, Chinese retail sales were better than expected, indicating some resilience in domestic demand, albeit industrial production slightly under forecast. Locally, Australia’s coming employment data continues to be a major interest for traders, as it could inform expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next monetary policy move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD continues to be supported in an uptrending channel on the daily chart, indicating a prevailing bearish bias in the short term. The currency pair is sitting just above 0.6480, near the lower edge of the channel that serves as instantaneous support. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the mid-point 50 level, showing a marginal bullish bias. The price is, however, below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6495, which shows some near-term weakness. A continued breakout above this EMA would set the stage for a test of the recent high at 0.6552 and potentially the upper edge of the channel around 0.6740, whereas a decline below 0.6480 would undermine the bullish picture and leave the 50-day EMA support at 0.6431. FORECAST If risk sentiment were to settle and positive surprises in future Australian employment statistics, the AUD/USD pair would be likely to pick up on its upward momentum. A move above the current resistance at the nine-day EMA (0.6495) could see a test of the last high at 0.6552. Serious bullish pressure could take the pair to the eight-month high at 0.6687, then the top of the rising channel at around 0.6740, particularly if the US Dollar continues to break lower on bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the negative side, fresh geopolitical tensions or poor Australian labor market statistics may dampen the Australian Dollar. A fall through the ascending channel’s lower line at 0.6480 would confirm a trend change and open the way to the 50-day EMA at 0.6431. Losses could push the pair further down to the 0.6400 psychological level, especially if the US Dollar as a safe haven gains further strength during continued global uncertainty.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Resists Mixed Economic Indicators and Global Trade Trends

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  • May 2, 2025
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Australian Dollar stays strong in the face of mixed local economic indicators and increasing global uncertainty. While March Retail Sales disappointed and commodity prices fell with concerns over a global slowdown, the Aussie was supported by a better-than-expected trade surplus and increasing inflation. Market sentiment is guarded in the lead-up to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, while easing US trade tensions are supporting the US Dollar. But Australia’s strong CPI numbers and trade performance are also cushioning the AUD. Political uncertainty around the upcoming federal election and expected rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia also underpin a mixed outlook for the currency. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A robust-than-anticipated jobs report may support the US Dollar, putting pressure on AUD/USD, whereas softer information can fuel additional gains for the AUD. •  A decisive majority outcome can provide short-term stability for the AUD, but a hung parliament or fiscal uncertainty may deter from the currency. •  Continued volatility in major exports such as iron ore and copper will continue to influence the commodity-linked Australian Dollar. •  Markets are already factoring in a possible 25 bps rate reduction in May—any deviation from the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely drastically change AUD/USD momentum. Australian Dollar is confronted with a number of important catalysts that have the potential to shape its direction. The coming US Nonfarm Payrolls report is one such area of attention, as favorable employment numbers might strengthen US Dollar, placing downward pressure on AUD/USD. Domestically, the result of Australia’s federal election is a source of political risk, with the possibility of fiscal uncertainty if no decisive majority is established. Secondly, commodity price volatility—particularly iron ore and copper—remains vital to the export-oriented Aussie. Finally, everyone waits with bated breath for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next step, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, which may further influence sentiment around the AUD. Australian Dollar’s direction depends on pivotal events such as the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, local election results, and the Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision. Volatility in commodity prices is also a pivotal concern for the export-oriented currency. •  March Retail Sales increased by only 0.3%, falling short of forecasts and indicating soft consumer spending. •  Australia recorded a surprising AUD 6.9 billion trade surplus, led by increasing exports and declining imports. •  Q1 CPI increased 0.9% QoQ and 2.4% YoY, sustaining expectations of ongoing inflation. •  A 25 bps May rate cut is expected by markets despite high inflation because of international risks. •  A close contest and possible minority government would bring fiscal uncertainty. •  Positive sentiment on US-China trade negotiations and Trump’s suggested deals could underpin the USD. •  Declining iron ore, copper, and gold prices pull down the commodity-sensitive Aussie Dollar. Australian Dollar is stable as a combination of domestic and overseas events impacts investor sentiment. The economy of Australia was seen reflecting both weakness and strength, as retail sales figures disappointed while trade surplus and inflation rates were above expectations. These signs point to underlying strength in the Australian economy, even as external headwinds remain challenging. Policymakers and markets eagerly await forthcoming events that will determine future direction, notably monetary policy and fiscal strategy. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Internationally, too, there is also a change of landscape. The US is sending signals that trade talks are making headway with important Asian economies such as China, India, and Japan, and it may impact the confidence in world markets. However, investors remain on guard in fear of slow global growth as well as the uncertainty in politics. The approaching federal election in Australia is a further risk component, with potential changes in the fiscal policy via a minority government. Overall, while the Aussie is standing firm, its future direction will largely hinge on how these domestic and international factors take shape in the weeks ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is keeping a bullish tilt as it trades above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near 0.6400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 mark, showing consistent uptrend momentum. Intraday resistance is at 0.6449, the four-month high reached recently, and a break above this level may set the stage for the next target at 0.6515. Support on the downside is at the nine-day EMA of 0.6387, with firmer support at the 50-day EMA of 0.6320; a fall below these levels may indicate a change in sentiment and further weakness. FORECAST Australian Dollar can continue to appreciate in the near term if trade and inflation data remain positive. A breakthrough in international trade talks, especially between China and the US, will further enhance market sentiment and sustain risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD. Also, if the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates evidence of weakness in the labor market, this may result in a weaker US Dollar, creating upside pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair. Good export performance and allaying concerns about drastic rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia could also assist in maintaining the rally. Downside risks could also affect the Australian Dollar. A more-than-anticipated US NFP release can revive demand for the US Dollar, causing AUD/USD to pull back. Politically, domestically, uncertainty after the federal election—particularly if no majority is established—can erode investor confidence and exert downward pressure. Additionally, further falls in major commodity prices like iron ore and copper will weaken the export-oriented Aussie. If the global economic worries deepen or if the Reserve Bank of Australia follows through with a rate cut in May, the AUD can expect to come under rising selling pressure in the next few weeks.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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