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USD/JPY Looks Up to 148 as Japanese Yen Weakens Due to Dismal Manufacturing PMI and BoJ-Fed Policy Divergence

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  • September 24, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to feel the pressure from a widely stronger US Dollar, with the USD/JPY currency pair standing at the threshold of the 148.00 level due to a disheartening Japan Manufacturing PMI figure. Domestic political angst and weak manufacturing figures have created concerns about delayed BoJ interest rate hikes, with expectations of additional Fed rate cuts continuing to prop up the USD. In spite of the Yen’s weak tone, safe-haven buying and policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed could cap big losses, holding the USD/JPY pair within a classic consolidation range before major US and Japanese economic releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • The latest reading of 48.4 points to the sharpest six-month contraction, keeping the Yen under pressure. • Investors closely observe for possible rate increases or dovish trends, particularly before the LDP leadership election on October 4. • Fed Chair Powell’s remarks about inflation and job preservation suggest fewer imminent rate cuts, favoring the US Dollar. • Major releases such as US New Home Sales, last GDP, PCE Price Index, and Tokyo CPI may shape USD/JPY direction in the short term. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure versus the US Dollar as poor manufacturing numbers and local political instability undermine market sentiment. Although the BoJ keeps the door open for rate increases, investor attention is pinned on the release of future economic data, ranging from the Tokyo CPI to US macro releases like GDP and PCE data. On the other hand, conflicting monetary policies—a dovish Fed forward guidance and prospective BoJ tightening—are maintaining the USD/JPY pair in a range, and the 148.00 level is being used as an important near-term resistance. Japanese Yen drops against the US Dollar on poor manufacturing figures and BoJ policy indecision. USD/JPY sticks around 148.00, with near-term action expected to be influenced by coming US and Japan economic indicators. Policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ could cap major Yen losses. • USD/JPY trades around 148.00 as the Japanese Yen weakens against a stronger US Dollar. • Japan Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in September, the quickest rate of contraction in six months. • Domestic political uncertainty leading up to the LDP leadership election may hold back BoJ rate hikes. • BoJ continues to keep policy normalization in mind despite recent economic weakness. • Fed Chair Powell’s comments indicate fewer near-term rate cuts, which are positive for USD demand. • Primary near-term data, such as US GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI, will have the potential to shape USD/JPY direction. • Technicals show resistance at 148.00–148.55 and support at 147.00–146.20 levels. The Japanese Yen continues to be pressured as poor manufacturing statistics and local political instability are creating overhang on the market mood. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4 in September, the steepest decline in six months, and yet another sign of stress for the Japanese economy. Investors are carefully monitoring the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, particularly the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election scheduled on October 4, which can affect the pace of future rate hikes. Although these remain concerns, market players still expect the BoJ to continue pursuing policy normalization if economic conditions are in accordance with its predictions. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView While that, the US Dollar finds support on hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy come later this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent words on striking a balance between inflation and jobs have further upheld guarded optimism for the USD, keeping investors on their toes for future US economic releases, such as New Home Sales, GDP, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Geopolitical tensions and safe-haven requirement also contribute to containing the losses of Yen, leading to a defensive market condition in which players are expecting new economic signals coming from Japan and the United States. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is in consolidation inside a well-known range since early August, creating a rectangle pattern that indicates the period of indecision. Near-term resistance is at the 148.00 round figure, followed closely by the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at its midpoint. Support comes in at mid-147.00s on the downside, with additional levels at 147.00 and 146.20. Neutral daily chart oscillators imply caution, and a sustained break above resistance or below support would be required to confirm a distinct near-term trend. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair is able to breach the resistance at 148.00, it may test the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day SMA as a major hurdle. A prolonged breach past this can pave the way towards the 149.00 level and possibly the monthly top around 149.15, particularly if US Dollar buying demand is boosted by hawkish economic news or risk-on mood in world markets. On the negative side, a fall below the mid-147.00s would have the pair probing support at 147.20, then 147.00. A further fall below here could drive losses towards 146.20, with further extension to 145.50–145.45, which is the lowest since early July. Dovish Fed cues, safe-haven interest, or softer-than-expected US economic data are likely to trigger yen strength.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Steady Against USD Due to BoJ-Fed Policy Convergence Capping Downside

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  • September 10, 2025
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Japanese Yen moved sideways against the US Dollar on Wednesday, burdened by a mixed bag of fundamental signals. Japanese political uncertainty and a better global risk sentiment capped the safe-haven appetite for the Yen, while a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the second half of this year provided support. At the same time, growing bets on a US Federal Reserve rate cut next week limited the Dollar’s upside. With markets awaiting key US inflation data, the USD/JPY pair is likely to remain range-bound, though the broader policy divergence suggests the downside potential for the Yen remains limited. KEY LOOKOUTS • Expectations of a BoJ rate hike by year-end versus imminent Fed rate cuts continue to shape USD/JPY dynamics. • Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation introduces uncertainty, which can delay BoJ policy normalization. • Near-term USD direction will be determined by upcoming PPI and CPI releases. • Support is located at 146.30–146.20, with resistance at 147.75–148.00, capping the pair’s upside. The Japanese Yen traded flat against the US Dollar on Wednesday in a tug-of-war between supportive and restrictive forces. On the one side, hopes that the Bank of Japan will increase interest rates later in the year, underpinned by better economic data and increasing household consumption, limit downside risks to the Yen. On the other side, political uncertainty after Prime Minister Ishiba stepped down and upbeat global risk appetite diminishes its safe-haven attractiveness. Meanwhile, the Dollar stays firm ahead of major US inflation releases, with hopes of a Fed rate cut keeping strong upside momentum at bay. Consequently, USD/JPY remains in a tight range, with markets waiting for fresh direction. Japanese Yen traded range-bound against US Dollar as expectations of BoJ rate hikes were countered by political risk and high global appetite for risk. With Fed rate cuts imminent and US inflation data pending, USD/JPY is expected to remain capped in the vicinity of important technical levels. • Japanese Yen remains range-bound against the US Dollar amidst conflicting market cues. • Political risk in Japan post-PM Ishiba’s resignation dampens the Yen. • Robust global equity markets cut safe-haven demand for JPY. • Favorable Japanese economic news and increasing household consumption boost expectations for a BoJ rate hike. • The US Federal Reserve is all but certain to lower rates at the next FOMC. • Traders wait for US PPI and CPI news for short-term direction in USD/JPY. • Important support is found at 146.30–146.20, with resistance at 147.75–148.00. The Japanese Yen is moving tentatively against the US Dollar as markets consider a combination of domestic and external factors. Domestically, hopes are rising that the Bank of Japan may increase interest rates by the year-end, amid improved recent trends in GDP growth, household consumption, and real wages. Meanwhile, political tension after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation has added a new level of uncertainty, which can briefly pause the pace of policy normalization by the BoJ. This provides the context for a sensitive balance between economic stability and political tension in dictating Yen sentiment. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Worldwide, the safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen has eased with US and Asian equity markets reaching new highs, indicating the upbeat risk appetite of investors. In the meantime, the market eye is on the Federal Reserve, with markets widely expecting the beginning of a rate-cut cycle next week after softer-than-anticipated US labor market data. This Fed-BoJ policy divergence still dictates investor positioning in the currency space, with the Yen stuck in a consolidative mode as market participants wait for guidance from future US inflation releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is still in the process of consolidation after rebounding from the 146.30 area support level, although the absence of follow-through and poor daily momentum indicators indicate minimal upside risk. Resistance is likely at the 147.75–148.00 area, which may draw new selling pressure and limit further advancement. On the downside, support is near 147.00, with a breach below paving the way for a test of the 146.30–146.20 region. A move below 146.00 would consolidate bearish grip and risk the pair lower toward 145.35 and the psychological 145.00 level. FORECAST If purchasing momentum picks up, USD/JPY may challenge the 147.75–148.00 resistance level, where it is expected that sellers will re-appear again. A firm break above this could induce short-covering, paving the way toward the 148.75 area close to the 200-day Simple Moving Average. Continued advances beyond this level would turn sentiment in the bulls’ favour and could further extend the recovery of the pair. Conversely, inability to breach the 148.00 resistance may attract fresh selling pressure. Near-term support lies at the 147.00 psychological level, with a further decline threatening the 146.30–146.20 horizontal bottom. A clean breakdown below 146.00 would be interpreted as a new bearish catalyst, underpinning the fall towards 145.35 before challenging the psychological 145.00 barrier.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Hardens as BoJ Policy Divergence and Positive Domestic Data Spur USD/JPY Near 148.00

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  • September 5, 2025
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The Japanese Yen hardens versus the US Dollar as positive domestic data and policy divergence with the Federal Reserve underpin its attractiveness. Japan’s real wages became positive for the first time in seven months, while household spending also indicated an increase, supporting prospects of further normalization in Bank of Japan policy direction. Meanwhile, market speculations about upcoming Fed rate reductions continue to bear down on the USD, pinning down USD/JPY around the 148.00 level. Trade sentiment, in the wake of the US reducing tariffs on Japanese auto imports, also weighs in favor of the Yen, and traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for better guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Strong wage growth and steady inflation above target fuel expectations of an imminent BoJ rate hike. • Markets widely anticipate at least two Fed rate cuts this year, weighing on the USD. • USD/JPY struggles near the 148.00 mark, with 147.40–146.70 seen as key supports and 148.75–149.20 as resistance zones. • The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial in shaping Fed policy expectations and near-term USD/JPY direction. Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar, buoyed by positive domestic news and policy divergence from the Federal Reserve. Japan’s real wages increased for the first time in seven months, accompanied by increased household expenditure, supporting hopes that the Bank of Japan will continue down its policy normalization process. In comparison, the USD continues to come under pressure as markets start to increasingly price in future Fed rate reductions. Contributing to the firmness of the Yen, trade optimism has firmed up after the US announced the reduction of tariffs on Japanese auto imports. With USD/JPY stalled around the 148.00 level, traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for new direction cues in the pair. Japanese Yen holds firm versus the US Dollar as solid domestic data and expectations of BoJ policy improve its prospects. On the other hand, USD is under pressure due to Fed rate cut expectations, keeping USD/JPY subdued near 148.00 levels before the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement. • Japanese Yen gets stronger as positive domestic data improves sentiment. •Japan’s real wages turn positive for the first time in seven months. • Household spending rises in July, reinforcing BoJ policy normalization expectations. • Inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target, supporting a hawkish outlook. • Fed rate cut bets keep the US Dollar under pressure. • US lowers tariffs on Japanese automobile imports, adding to trade optimism. • USD/JPY struggles near 148.00, with traders awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for direction. The Japanese Yen is finding support as new local data points to strength in the economy of Japan. Real wages finally became positive for the first time in seven months, indicating improving household buying power, with spending also showing growth, though below expectations. This reinforces the belief that the Bank of Japan will remain on its path of policy normalization, particularly with inflation remaining above 2% target. Meanwhile, trade sentiment got a boost after the United States dropped its plan to reduce tariffs on Japanese auto imports, easing a major source of worry for businesses and investors. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to find it tough to inspire a robust buying interest with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will soon initiate cutting borrowing costs. Markets are already discounting the likelihood of several rate cuts throughout the year, which has kept demand for USD in check. In this context, market participants are keenly awaiting the publication of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report to get an updated picture of US labor market health and Fed policy direction. The information will probably have a key part to play in determining near-term sentiment around the USD/JPY pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is under intense pressure as the pair fails to maintain itself above the 148.00 level, an important psychological and structural support level. Repeated inability to break through the 200-day Simple Moving Average, located around 148.75–148.80, indicates weak bullish momentum in the short term. A persistent break below 148.00 might open the way towards the 147.40–147.00 area, with further losses revealing the 146.20–146.00 area. On the other hand, a decisive break above the 149.20 resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop, might restore momentum in favor of buyers and clear the way for a move towards the 150.00 psychological level. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to stay above the 148.00 support and break above the 148.75–149.20 resistance area, the onus would shift back in favor of buyers. This would pave the way for a rally to the 150.00 psychological level, with the chances of further upmove towards the August swing high around 151.00. Stricter-than-anticipated US economic figures, especially those in the Nonfarm Payrolls report, might be the stimulus for this rally by momentarily lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a persistent decline below the 148.00 level would strengthen bearish momentum and initiate fresh selling pressure. This would enhance declines towards the 147.40 support level, and then further downwards towards the 147.00 and 146.70 levels. A decisive breach of 146.70 would reveal the 146.20–146.00 area, potentially triggering a more extensive corrective move. Poor US data or more robust hints of BoJ tightening would tend to be drivers towards this downside route.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Grinds Higher with US Dollar Rebound and Escalating Tariff Tensions with Japan

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  • July 2, 2025
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USD/JPY currency pair traded slightly higher on Wednesday, aided by a modest US Dollar rebound even as a softer-than-expected ADP jobs report presented surprise June job losses. The Greenback stabilized as markets became wary of the imminent Nonfarm Payrolls release and absorbed Fed Chair Powell’s cautious words. Simultaneously, rising trade tensions between Japan and the US put additional pressure on the Japanese Yen, with threatened tariffs from former President Trump and staunch opposition from Tokyo increasing uncertainty. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda played it safe, emphasizing the requirement of inflation alignment prior to any policy changes. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets are waiting for clearer indications regarding US labor market strength and possible Fed rate cuts. • Increasing tensions and hawkish postures before the July 9 deadline could influence JPY volatility. • Governor Ueda’s cautious tone supports expectations of slow and modest tightening. • In spite of soft ADP numbers, the rebound in the USD Index indicates that investors have not yet priced in aggressive dovish pivots. The USD/JPY pair made small gains as the US Dollar recovered from its sharp losses at the start of the week after a disappointing ADP employment report indicated surprise job losses in June. Though the data fueled speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, investor sentiment was subdued, and focus is now shifting to the coming Nonfarm Payrolls for firmer direction. Simultaneously, rising trade tensions between Japan and the US put more pressure on the Yen as both countries take harder stances before a high-stakes tariff negotiation deadline. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan stood pat on its wait-and-see stance, solidifying expectations of incremental policy normalization. USD/JPY is trading slightly higher after the US Dollar steadies against weak ADP data. Surching US-Japan trade tensions and dovish BoJ policy tone are keeping the Japanese Yen under pressure. Markets now look towards the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls report for further cues. • USD/JPY is trading around 143.75, having recovered slightly after touching a three-week low. • US Dollar bounces back marginally despite ADP reporting a surprise loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June. • Wage growth holds steady, maintaining the Fed’s policy framework in mind prior to the NFP release. • US Dollar Index (DXY) increases 0.25%, rebounding from its lowest level since February 2022. • Trade tensions intensify as the US and Japan dig in ahead of the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. • Former President Trump threatens up to 35% tariffs on Japanese imports, boosting market uncertainty. • BoJ Governor Ueda remains guarded, indicating no near-term rate moves while watching inflation developments. The USD/JPY exchange rate also captured wider market sentiment as investors absorbed important economic news and geopolitical events. The surprising drop in US private-sector hiring, as marked by the ADP report, added new worries about the extent of labor market deceleration. While wage increases continued to hold steady, the job losses have stoked expectations for possible monetary policy reduction by the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, traders are still wary of the more conclusive Nonfarm Payrolls data, which will best illuminate the economic picture and the Fed’s next step. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Internationally, heightened tensions between the United States and Japan in recent times due to trade negotiations have created an extra layer of uncertainty. As the July 9 deadline draws near, neither side seems keen on making concessions, particularly in areas such as tariffs on Japanese exports and safeguarding domestic industries. Former President Trump’s assertive language has put pressure on Japan, while Prime Minister Ishiba has stuck to his guns in protecting national interests. These events have attracted the attention of international investors, who are monitoring closely for signs of further escalation that would influence economic relations and currency movements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is trying to make a minor rebound after finding support at around the 143.00 area, a level which concides with recent lows. The pair touched an intraday high around 144.25 briefly but was unable to sustain the momentum, indicating possible resistance at that area. A prolonged break above 144.25 would then pave the way towards the 145.00 psychological level, while a loss of holding above 143.00 would result in fresh bearish pressure. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD are still in a neutral to slightly positive stance, mirroring the pair’s measured recovery amidst a larger-scale consolidation phase. FORECAST If future US economic releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls report, indicate job growth resilience and stable wages, the US Dollar may strengthen further. Such a move should propel USD/JPY upwards, especially if sentiment turns away from near-term Fed rate cuts. Breaking the 144.25 resistance level may push the pair to test the 145.00 level, with further upside possibly seen in the 146.50 zone if buying pressure gathers momentum. On the negative side, though, if the NFP report does validate labor market softness or sets off heightened expectations of near-term Fed easing, the US Dollar could again face selling pressure. In such a case, USD/JPY would likely decline back towards the 143.00 support level, and a penetration through this could expose the pair to further losses down to 141.80 or even the psychologically significant 140.00 level. Furthermore, rising US-Japan trade tensions could also serve to drive up demand for safe-haven Yen, putting downward pressure on the pair.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weighed Down by Stronger US Dollar and Risk Averse Markets as US NFP Report Looms

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  • June 6, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to be under pressure for the second day in a row with dismal domestic data coupled with increasing hopes over US-China trade negotiations detracting from the safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stays supported ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, though gains remain limited due to growing expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year. In spite of the prevailing bearishness surrounding the Yen, the disparity between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, as well as ongoing geopolitical concerns, could assist in limiting further declines in the JPY and limiting substantial upside to the USD/JPY pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are keenly observing the release of future US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which might have a considerable impact on USD/JPY direction based on the strength of the labor market and implications for Federal Reserve policy. • Speculation that the Bank of Japan might continue to hike rates as the Federal Reserve ponders cutting in 2025 might cap USD upside and underpin JPY resiliency on the medium term. • The USD/JPY currency pair is probing important resistance at the 144.00 level, and a breakout above it—especially above 144.40—can be seen as a sign of fresh bullish momentum. • Declining Japanese household spending and wages increase recession possibilities, which can weaken consumer activity and negatively impact JPY sentiment unless met with accommodative policy actions. Japanese Yen continues to decline against the US Dollar as a mix of weak Japanese economic data and upbeat sentiment regarding US-China trade relations suppresses demand for the safe-haven currency. The USD/JPY pair is still underpinned, though momentum is subdued ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which may tilt expectations for future Fed policy actions. As the Yen is under downward pressure, losses for it could be capped by the Bank of Japan’s growing hawkish attitude and ongoing geopolitical risks that might revive demand for safe-haven assets. The Japanese Yen is under pressure in weak domestic data and stronger US Dollar in the run-up to the NFP report. Nevertheless, BoJ’s hawkish bias and global tensions might limit additional JPY losses. Traders remain cautious around crucial technical levels. • The Japanese Yen is still on the backfoot for the second consecutive day on account of disappointing domestic spending and wage figures. • The US Dollar receives support from repositioning in anticipation of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. • Divergent policy expectations—BoJ tilting hawkish, Fed anticipating rate cuts in 2025—may cap any further USD/JPY gains. • Hopes regarding resumed US-China trade talks diminish the safe-haven demand for the Yen. • The 144.00 and 144.40 levels are pivotal resistance levels for USD/JPY, with bullish strength depending on a breakout. • A fall below 142.75 may open up the pair to further losses towards the support area of 141.60. • US fiscal worries and global tensions can prevent the JPY from falling sharply, acting as a safeguard for the currency. The Japanese Yen is currently under pressure downwards as recent economic figures from Japan indicate slowing consumer expenditure and falling real wages. These trends are of concern to Japan’s economic prospects, particularly as private consumption contributes a major percentage of the nation’s GDP. Concurrently, increased hopes about the return of US-China trade negotiations have reduced the appeal of the Yen as a safe-haven currency, and investors have turned towards riskier assets. In the meantime, the US Dollar is still relatively firm as traders look towards the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) soon, which will be an important gauge of the US labor market’s health and can have an impact on subsequent Federal Reserve policy making. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Despite the current pressure on the Yen, expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain a tighter monetary policy contrast with the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts next year, creating a policy divergence that could limit further depreciation of the Yen. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns about global economic stability continue to support demand for safer assets, including the Yen. Japan-US trade talks are also advancing, as Japan has put on the negotiating table a more flexible US auto tariff approach that could further impact currency trends. Overall, while the Yen is strained in the short run, there are many factors that could stabilize the currency in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a specific range, establishing a pattern since the beginning of the week. Strong resistance is seen at the 144.00 and 144.40 levels, the latter of which closely corresponds to the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A clean break above those levels might reflect a change in favor of bullish traders, who might send the pair to the psychological 145.00 level. On the negative side, support levels near 143.50, 143.00, and below near 142.70 and 141.60 will be pivotal in deciding whether bearish pressure continues. Oscillator indices indicate mild bearish inclination at the moment, meaning that any rallies will encounter selling interest at resistance levels. FORECAST The short-term USD/JPY outlook indicates cautious upside potential if the pair is able to convincingly break and hold above the important resistance of 144.40. A move up could be bullish, prompting traders to drive the pair towards the next psychological hurdle at 145.00. The scenario would be supported by firm US economic numbers or increased risk appetite, maybe fueling additional USD strength versus the Yen. In contrast, if USD/JPY is unable to break resistance and instead drops below support levels around 143.50 and 143.00, the pair may encounter fresh selling pressure. An extended drop below 142.70 may intensify the downtrend, exposing lower support areas around 142.10 and 141.60. This bearish scenario would be driven by poorer US data, rising risk aversion, or rising bets for a more dovish Federal Reserve, which would favor the lower-yielding Yen.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Weakens on BoJ’s Dovish Forecast, Traders Look to Governor Ueda’s Remarks for Rate-Hike Hints in the Future

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  • May 1, 2025
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Japanese Yen has continued to fall for the third straight day, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and cut its inflation and growth projections. The BoJ’s conservative attitude, in anticipation of US tariffs and a potential de-escalation of US-China trade tensions, has prompted the weakening of the Yen. Investors are now turning to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s next words for clues on the direction of interest rates ahead, with hopes that the BoJ will lift rates in 2025. Even so, wider market forces, such as softening US economic numbers and even potential Federal Reserve rate cuts down the road, indicate the Yen can hold some support in the near term, with traders keeping close watch on key technical levels for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market participants are eagerly looking forward to the remarks of BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take cues on future possible rate increases and the central bank’s views on inflation and economic growth, which will decide the direction of the Yen. •  The recent US GDP decline and soft ADP employment numbers are sparking fears of a possible US recession, which can impact the monetary policy of the Fed and the USD/JPY pair. • US-China trade talks developments, or any potential easing, have the potential to meaningfully affect sentiment in markets, with potential to influence the safe-haven demand of the Yen. • The USD/JPY currency pair is making a move toward a critical resistance point at 144.00. A breakout here could trigger more gains, or a drop below 142.60 might bring momentum back into the hands of Yen bulls. Japanese Yen is under sustained pressure after the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.5% and reduced its growth and inflation projections, indicating a more dovish stance. Market participants are now looking to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s next comments to gauge the central bank’s future rate-hike path, with some speculating that rates could increase in 2025 as inflation slowly accelerates. Meanwhile, softer US economic news, such as a decline in GDP and less-than-anticipated private-sector job growth, may induce a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, potentially favoring the Yen. In the meantime, global risk sentiment, such as any US-China trade talks news, will be important in determining near-term direction for the Yen. Important technical levels for the USD/JPY pair are also in the spotlight, with resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.60 guiding the next possible directions. The Japanese Yen remains soft in the wake of BoJ’s dovish bias, with the market anticipating Governor Ueda’s words for clues on upcoming rate hikes. Downward revisions in US economic data and global trade news bring added uncertainty, with major technical levels for USD/JPY still firmly in the market’s sights for possible action. • The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% and reduced its growth and inflation projections, indicating a conservative stance. • Market participants are looking for clues from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on future rate hikes, with speculation of a rate hike in 2025. • US GDP fell in Q1 2025, and private-sector employment figures were lower than expected, sparking fears of a recession. • Expectations of Fed rate reductions later in the year by the markets may pressure the US Dollar, propping up the lower-yielding Yen. • Any news in US-China trade negotiations, especially de-escalation, may impact risk sentiment and trigger demand for the Yen as a safe-haven currency. • Important resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.60 are key levels for the USD/JPY pair, dictating future possible price movements. • The BoJ’s projection of inflation at around 2% over the period 2027 implies Japan’s economic situation is going to have a major influence on future monetary policy. The Japanese Yen has been under stress after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) announcement to maintain its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% alongside reducing its forecast for economic growth and inflation. This action mirrors the BoJ’s conservative perspective under the cloud of global trade tensions, especially with the US. The central bank has stated that it will also keep economic conditions under close observation, though while lowering its near-term inflation estimates, it maintained that it expected inflation to stick around its 2% goal in the medium term. Market focus now shifts to remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who should also offer clarity regarding the way ahead for interest rates. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Deteriorating US economic fundamentals, also comprising a negative print in GDP along with muted-than-forecast private sector employment, accompany weakening Yen. These events have fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in the near term, potentially supporting the Yen as a lower-yielding currency. Furthermore, continued uncertainties surrounding global trade, especially US-China relations, can have profound effects on market sentiment and the Yen as a safe-haven asset. With these dynamics changing, investors will be keeping a close eye on any commentary from central banks and major economic indicators that could impact the path of the Yen over the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is probing important resistance points, and the 144.00 level has become an important stumbling block. A move above the level would indicate more bullish pressure, which could propel the pair into higher resistance areas. On the negative, the 142.60-142.65 region is regarded as key support, and a break below this region could spark a turnaround, moving the pair downward. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is also acting as support, while the general market sentiment, guided by the BoJ’s dovish policy and US economic releases, will probably drive the next significant moves. The sellers will be keeping a close eye on these technical levels in order to decide the direction of the pair in the near future. FORECAST USD/JPY pair crosses above the 144.00 resistance level, it may create further upside momentum, with the next important target in the vicinity of the 144.60-144.65 zone. This will indicate a continuation of the current bullish

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