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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Levels Out At Around $84,000 Following Regulatory Clarity and Fed Policy Cues

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  • March 22, 2025
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Bitcoin holds its ground at $84,000 this week thanks to encouraging regulatory clarity from the US SEC and sound interest rate policy cues from the Federal Reserve. Institutional buying is also recovering, as evident from healthy flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Furthermore, decreasing global tensions and crypto-positive utterances by political leaders have additionally improved confidence levels in the market. As technical indicators report contradictory signals, total sentiment remains positive but with caution since Bitcoin is still acquiring mainline popularity and regulatory approval. KEY LOOKOUTS • The SEC explanation that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining incentives are not securities boosted investor mood and may usher in new institutional investors for Bitcoin. • The Federal Reserve maintained rates steady and repeated its rate cutting projection, creating a conducive macroeconomic climate for crypto assets such as Bitcoin. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net inflow of $661.20 million this week, which could be an indication of a renewed surge in institutional demand and a relief from recent sell-side pressure. • The ongoing Gaza tensions and Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the 200-day EMA are reasons for concern. A more severe pullback is possible if BTC fails to regain support above $85,500. Even with Bitcoin stabilizing near the $84,000 level this week, the market continues to hang in the balance as a combination of macroeconomic drivers and geopolitical considerations remains at large to shape investor sentiments. The recent indication by the US SEC that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining incentives do not constitute securities has given a regulatory boost with the potential to attract more institutional investment. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s stance in keeping interest rates unchanged and reaffirming its rate-cut projection has provided a positive environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Further, the significant net inflow of $661.20 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates a potential resurrection in institutional demand. Still, increased geopolitical tensions push, especially in Gaza, and Bitcoin’s failure to hold above the 200-day EMA mean caution continues to be justified in the short term. Bitcoin stays flat at $84,000 with positive regulatory clarity and consistent Fed policies. Solid ETF inflows indicate increasing institutional demand, but geopolitical tensions and technical resistance at the 200-day EMA make caution prudent in advance. • Bitcoin price steadies at $84,000 after recovering 2% for the week. • US SEC makes it clear PoW mining rewards aren’t securities, with improving market sentiment. • The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged and holds rate cut projection for 2025. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs see a net inflow of $661.20 million, with increased institutional demand. • BTC briefly reached $87,000 but couldn’t hold above its 200-day EMA, reflecting technical weakness. • Geopolitical events, such as the Gaza conflict and US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, remain in the minds of investors. • If BTC cannot retake the 200-day EMA at $85,500, then a correction to support levels of $78,258 is likely. Bitcoin remained resilient this week, maintaining its ground around the $84,000 mark against general market uncertainties. One of the main drivers behind this stability is the encouraging regulatory progress from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which made it clear that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining rewards do not fall under securities. This move has generated a big increase in investor sentiment and indicated a more positive approach to the crypto market. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to holding interest rates and keeping its rate cut view for the year has also boosted sentiment in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Furthermore, the substantial inflow of $661.20 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates renewed institutional investor appetite, reflecting increased confidence and long-term hope in the market. Other positive global events, including diplomatic negotiations among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, have also been contributing to reducing some of the investor anxiety. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s friendly attitude toward crypto, particularly his speech during the Digital Asset Summit, further contributed to the general positive storyline for the space. As Bitcoin keeps gaining acceptance from the mainstream and institutional investment, such developments become instrumental in defining the future direction of digital assets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin encountered resistance after touching briefly the $87,000 threshold earlier in the week but found it difficult to sustain above pivotal levels. Despite breaking above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) initially, it could not sustain that level of support, which could indicate short-term vulnerability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed losing momentum, moving below the mid-point 50 level. If Bitcoin is able to retake and maintain above the 200-day EMA around $85,500, it may continue its rally towards the $90,000 psychological level. But if it fails to retake this level, it may pull back towards the next significant support level around $78,258. FORECAST Bitcoin is able to retake and hold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $85,500, it may indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. Bullish macroeconomic signals, regulatory guidance by the SEC, and robust institutional flows via spot ETFs can be the stimulus needed for BTC to test the $87,000 resistance area again. If a breakout occurs above this threshold, it will clear the way for the next important psychological target of $90,000, which will continue to draw more buyers and further solidify general market sentiment. On the negative side, though, if Bitcoin cannot retake support at the 200-day EMA and keeps facing selling pressure, it can activate a deeper correction. The subsequent important support comes at around $78,258, and breaking below that may increase bearish sentiment. Rising geopolitical tensions or declining ETF inflows are also possible causes of increased selling pressure. In this scenario, investors are likely to adopt a risk-off strategy, causing further short-term downside action.

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Bitcoin Resists Below $81K: Long-Term Investors Indicate Market Strength Amidst Liquidity Downturn

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  • March 19, 2025
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In spite of a reduction in on-chain and futures market liquidity, Bitcoin is holding firm above the $81,000 level, indicating that the market has not yet reached a bearish trend. As per Glassnode’s recent report, although short-term holders have accumulated over $7 billion in extended losses—the longest drawdown duration in the present cycle—long-term holders are still sitting on their gains, indicating sustained faith in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. With less trading appetite, decreased exchange inflows, and a sharp decline in futures open interest, the market is seeing a short-term contraction instead of an outright downtrend, indicating the potential for another rally in the later part of this year. KEY LOOKOUTS • On-chain as well as futures market liquidity has fallen substantially, with Bitcoin exchange inflows decreasing more than 54% and futures open interest falling by 35%, indicating decreased market participation. • Short-term investors have incurred over $7 billion of losses, representing the longest drawdown in this cycle, which is a sign of capitulation by new investors. • Even in the case of market corrections, long-term investors are still holding onto gains and have not indicated any sign of bulk profit-taking—a good indicator that the market has not moved into a bearish category. • Bitcoin continues in its consolidation phase of $80,000–$83,000 with extreme volatility based on diminished liquidity but without a visible bearish reversal in sight. The market behavior of Bitcoin today gives us a confusing yet optimistic scenario. Though on-chain activity as well as futures markets have shrunk significantly in liquidity, with exchange inflows and open interest plummeting sharply, Bitcoin is still trading firmly above the $81,000 threshold. The pressure is largely being taken in by short-term holders who have experienced more than $7 billion in persistent losses—pointing towards a long stretch of capitulation by newer investors. Long-term holders, though, continue to be unruffled, retaining their gains and hinting no mass selling. This resilience demonstrates that even while in the short-term there will be volatility and little fresh influxes of capital, the market as yet hasn’t entered the phase of the bear and even possible bullish runup is ahead of us. Bitcoin is steady at over $81,000 even as liquidity and futures market activity plummeted sharply. Although short-term holders are suffering significant losses, long-term holders are still sitting on gains, indicating that the market has not yet entered a bearish trend. • Bitcoin is still above $81,000, even with lower on-chain and futures market liquidity. • On-chain exchange inflows have fallen more than 54%, indicating weaker market activity and less trading appetite. • Open interest in futures has decreased by 35%, reflecting diminished speculative interest and capital flow. • Short-term holders have lost $7 billion, which is the longest loss-taking period in this cycle of the market. • Hot Supply (less than a week of BTC being held) has decreased by more than 50%, reflecting less short-term trading activity. • Long-term holders still hold onto gains, reflecting sustained confidence and no indication of widespread sell-offs. • Data from Glassnode indicates the market is consolidating and not entering a bear cycle, with potential for future bull action. Bitcoin remains strong in the market as it maintains a strong position above the $81,000 level. Regardless of continuing fluctuations in trading activity, there is no clear indication that the market is in a downtrend. One of the most heartening indicators is the faith demonstrated by long-term holders, as they continue to hold assets and profits. Their consistent action portrays belief in Bitcoin’s long-term future despite periodic sluggish movement in the market. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the other hand, newer investors seem to be facing more pressure, leading to some exits from the market. However, this hasn’t significantly affected the overall market sentiment. The absence of large sell-offs from experienced holders suggests that confidence in Bitcoin remains strong. Instead of seeing this as a downturn, the current situation can be viewed as a phase of calm before the next big move, with the market still showing signs of healthy consolidation. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is in the process of consolidating around the $80,000 to $83,000 levels, which reflects a period of stabilization of the market following recent instability. The lateral movement reflects an accumulation phase during which buyers and sellers are striking a temporary balance. The failure to experience a significant breakout or breakdown indicates that the market awaits a catalyst that will determine the next direction of the market. Critical resistance and support points within this range are being monitored, as a clean breakout above or below either level would indicate a possible trend reversal in the near future or in weeks to come. FORECAST Bitcoin continues to have good upside potential if sentiment in the markets improves and new capital starts entering the system. A penetration above the $83,000 resistance level could be followed by a fresh rally to its highs. If long-term investors remain confident and new buyers return to the market, Bitcoin can regain its momentum and move towards higher levels in the next few months. Favorable macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, or a change in market confidence can also act as triggers for the next leg up. On the negative side, if liquidity continues to tighten and investor appetite remains weak, Bitcoin can come under more pressure. A fall below the key support level of $80,000 could see short-term panic selling, particularly from newer investors. This may result in an interim fall before the market stabilizes once more. But until long-term holders start selling in large quantities, a severe bearish period is unlikely, even if small corrections are experienced along the way.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Volatility Hangs Over Head as White House Crypto Summit Nears

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  • March 5, 2025
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Bitcoin is under increased volatility as it heads into the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, with prices at around $87,600 after stabilizing at $85,000. The summit, which takes place on Friday, is likely to determine future regulation and innovation in the crypto space, creating uncertainty for the market. While that is happening, Bitcoin ETFs also remain in apparent outflows, reflecting poor institutional demand, which may put additional pressure on prices. There is still some optimism, though, as Japanese investment company Metaplanet recently added to BTC holdings, which lifted investor morale. If the $85,000 support level remains, Bitcoin may try to recover, but traders should be wary of possible market volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • The coming summit has the potential to shape Bitcoin regulations and sentiment, which may result in heightened volatility and define the future of crypto policies. • Bitcoin ETFs saw $217.7 million in outflows this week, which indicates waning institutional appetite, and more price corrections can be expected if the trend continues. • Whether a recovery rally towards $95,000 is feasible will be determined by Bitcoin’s ability to maintain above this critical support, which is situated in line with the 200-day EMA. • Speculators around key events, such as Trump’s crypto position and regulatory changes, should be watched out for by traders since they may trigger sudden price movements and liquidations. The future of Bitcoin is uncertain as the crypto space prepares for possible volatility leading up to the White House Crypto Summit. The event may provide clarity on regulations, which will lead to investor confidence and institutional adoption. However, ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows indicate a cautious stance among institutional investors, raising concerns about market stability. While corporate investments like Metaplanet’s recent Bitcoin purchase reflect long-term optimism, short-term price movements will likely depend on regulatory outcomes and broader market sentiment. As the industry awaits key policy discussions, traders should prepare for possible fluctuations in the coming days. Bitcoin is susceptible to volatility ahead of the White House Crypto Summit, with investors keenly monitoring regulatory updates. Institutional withdrawals keep weighing on BTC, while support at $85,000 holds the key for a rebound. Market speculation and changing sentiment are likely to generate sharp price moves, and thus caution is advisable for investors. • The historic summit may dictate regulatory policies and market sentiment and, in the process, drive Bitcoin volatility. • BTC fluctuates at $87,600 after rebounding from the $85,000 support, with possible recovery to $95,000 if momentum continues. • Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $217.7 million of outflows this week, indicating weakening institutional demand and possible further price corrections. • There was a brief rally after Trump’s ‘Crypto Strategic Reserve’ announcement but was wiped out, demonstrating a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. • BTC’s capacity to remain above this significant level, which coincides with the 200-day EMA, is important for any prospective bullish action. • Speculative actions surrounding regulatory news and institutional participation may cause sudden price movements and potential liquidations. • The $44 million BTC acquisition by the Japanese investment company sparked optimism, showing that some institutions continue to view Bitcoin as a solid asset. The upcoming White House Crypto Summit marks a significant moment for the cryptocurrency industry, bringing together key industry leaders, policymakers, and investors to discuss the future of digital assets. This event highlights the growing importance of cryptocurrency in the financial sector and signals the government’s increasing involvement in shaping regulations. With the topics of innovation, security, and compliance expected to be discussed, the summit may shape the way that crypto becomes a part of mainstream finance. The involvement of high-profile individuals further adds to the likely shift towards a more regulated and organized crypto environment. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView That being said, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains one of the most influential drivers of market sentiment at the same time. As some investment companies are expanding their Bitcoin reserves, overall fluctuations in demand are mirroring wider uncertainties within the sector. The shifting regulatory environment, as well as debates surrounding crypto policies at the highest level, may decide the next stage of adoption and integration. As institutions and governments adopt a more formal stance on digital assets, the future effect on the crypto market will be significantly based on the manner in which regulation strikes a balance between innovation and investor protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The crypto industry is at a pivotal juncture as global debate around regulation and adoption builds momentum. The forthcoming White House Crypto Summit is evidence of how digital assets increasingly play a role in mainstream finance as policymakers and industry executives convene to discuss the future of crypto innovation. The gathering underscores the necessity of clear regulatory guidelines to balance security, compliance, and expansion while instilling investor and institutional confidence. As governments and corporations chart their course through this shifting terrain, choices made today may determine the future place of cryptocurrencies within the world economy. FORECAST The price of Bitcoin may experience a bullish push if encouraging news flows from the White House Crypto Summit, especially if the conversation turns in the direction of straightforward and welcoming regulations. A well-defined regulatory environment would increase investor confidence, draw institutional investment, and propel Bitcoin’s acceptance within mainstream finance. Besides that, increased corporate investments, including Metaplanet’s latest Bitcoin buy, suggest some institutions still believe long-term prospects in digital assets. If that type of investment persists, Bitcoin might see fresh demand and price hikes in the near future. To the negative side, institutional participation uncertainty remains the most critical factor. Bitcoin ETFs have shown major outflows, implying deteriorating demand among big players, which would bear down on prices. In addition, regulatory uncertainty and market speculation tend to stimulate volatility, with sudden price fluctuations and potential liquidations impacting traders. In case institutional outflows continue and no firm regulatory support comes from the forthcoming summit, Bitcoin would find it challenging to stay stable and could be subject to further falls in the short term.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Rally Falters Amid Institutional Selling and Tariff Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Bitcoin was highly volatile this week, trading at around $86,000 following a steep 15% drop that saw prices dip as low as $82,256. The decline was largely fueled by President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and declining institutional demand, as seen through massive ETF outflows of $2.2 billion. Technical indicators, such as an oversold RSI, suggest a possible rebound, but traders are still wary in the face of general market uncertainty and concerns that more corrections will send Bitcoin’s price to about $73,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in outflows, adding selling pressure and raising questions about sustained downside momentum. • Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and North America add to market uncertainty, potentially putting additional weight on BTC price action. • BTC’s significant support is $73,000; a fall below this may initiate a deeper correction, but RSI suggests potential recovery. • As concerns over stagflation increase, Bitcoin remains trading in tandem with risk assets, with liquidation pressure in the face of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s latest price movement indicates a struggle between rebounding and more downward pressure, with the cryptocurrency stuck near $86,000 after an intense 15% fall this week. The rout was prompted by institutional players liquidating their holdings, with Bitcoin ETFs posting $2.2 billion of net redemptions over the last three days. Compounding the doubts, President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the European Union, as well as delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, triggered risk-off across world markets. The analysts suggest that if bearish pressure continues, BTC can challenge the decisive $73,000 support threshold. But as the RSI indicator also displays oversold, a possible flip remains in consideration, leaving speculators in waiting mode. Bitcoin is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall, fueled by institutional selling and Trump’s tariff threats against the EU. With $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin ETF outflows, market sentiment is still bearish, and BTC may test the $73,000 support level if selling pressure persists. Nevertheless, the RSI indicates oversold levels, which may see a rebound. • BTC is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall earlier this week. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in net outflows in the last three days, adding to selling pressure. • President Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and delayed duties on Canada and Mexico have sparked risk-off sentiment. • Stagflation and economic instability fears have prompted investors to cut risk exposure, affecting BTC prices. • If selling pressure persists, BTC may test the key $73,000 support level in the next few days. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold and may reflect a reversal or bounce. • Although there’s a possibility of a rebound, BTC is still volatile, and traders need to be ready for more price fluctuations. Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the influence of externalities, such as geopolitical tensions and changing investor sentiment. The current tariff talks, especially President Trump’s suggested 25% tariff on the European Union, have introduced uncertainty in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching closely as global economic policies continue to influence the digital asset space. Institutional investors, meanwhile, have been selling their Bitcoin holdings, adding to overall market trends and informing trading behavior. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from market forces, the use of Bitcoin as a hedge for economic uncertainty is also an important topic of discussion. While others consider it a store of value, there are others who perceive it as a high-risk asset to be buffeted by external factors. The cryptocurrency market is always closely associated with macroeconomic indicators, regulatory actions, and investor sentiment, all of which are influential in determining its future. With the changing global financial environment, Bitcoin remains in the middle of all the talk regarding digital assets and their role in today’s economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin recently broke below significant support levels, which was a sign of a change in momentum. The recent selling pressure, fueled by institutional outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties, has added to heightened volatility. Nonetheless, technical analysis using Relative Strength Index (RSI) also points toward oversold situations that might precipitate a reversal or short-lived relief rally. Even the trend of volume confirms diminished buying interest that continues to underscore cautious feelings from the trading fraternity. Bitcoin might experience more corrections unless it finds renewed strength past the levels of resistance, yet breaking through principal moving averages will reverse bullish vigor. FORECAST Bitcoin may pick up steam and move towards higher resistance levels. A decline in institutional outflows and renewed buying interest from big investors may create buying pressure, firming up the price. Moreover, any favorable macroeconomic news, including clarity on tariffs or alleviating inflation fears, may restore confidence in risk assets, including BTC. If demand picks up, Bitcoin may regain earlier highs and try to break resistance levels, indicating a possible bullish trend. On the negative side, Bitcoin is still susceptible to further corrections if selling pressure persists. Institutional investors selling their holdings and continued uncertainty regarding global economic policies may trigger another round of declines. If Bitcoin fails to hold onto key support levels, it can test lower price levels, possibly hitting the $73,000 level. Additionally, macroeconomic threats like extended stagflation concerns and decreased liquidity in financial markets may contribute to downward pressure, making short-term recovery difficult.

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Bitcoin Price Falls Below $90,000: Liquidations Mount as Market Responds to Bybit Hack

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  • February 25, 2025
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Bitcoin’s price is down below $90,000, wrapping up its consolidation phase and causing epic liquidations in the crypto market. In the last 24 hours, $1.34 billion of liquidations erased 367,500 traders, with the largest individual order at $20.80 million on Binance. The fall comes in the wake of a security incident at Bybit, which saw the exchange lose about $2 billion worth of BTC from its coffers. Uncertainty in the markets and mounting selling pressure have pushed Bitcoin to a low of $88,200, with analysts issuing warnings that additional losses could send BTC to the $85,000 support point. But in the event that sentiment improves, Bitcoin can try to regain the $100,000 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • BTC drops to $88,200, a steep 4.89% drop and ending its prolonged consolidation, worrying investors. • More than $1.34 billion in liquidations erased 367,500 traders, with the biggest single order of $20.80 million on Binance, boosting selling pressure. • Bybit lost approximately $2 billion in BTC from reserves as a result of a security breach, resulting in increased investor fears and market withdrawals. • Bearish momentum in Bitcoin persists, with RSI approaching oversold levels. Further decline can test $85,000, and a bounce can test $100,000. Bitcoin’s sudden drop below $90,000 has caused enormous liquidations, erasing 367,500 traders and a total of $1.34 billion in losses. The downturn in the market comes after a security hack at Bybit that saw a loss of $2 billion in BTC reserves, instilling uncertainty and investor withdrawals. The largest volume liquidation order of $20.80 million happened on Binance, contributing to the selling wave. With Bitcoin’s drop to $88,200 and its RSI close to oversold, experts indicate that BTC may challenge the $85,000 support level if the bearish trend continues. The price, however, can still rebound and recover towards the $100,000 psychological level. Bitcoin’s price fell below $90,000, initiating $1.34 billion worth of liquidations and eliminating 367,500 traders. A $2 billion BTC loss by Bybit reserves created market uncertainty. If the bearish strength prevails, BTC might challenge $85,000, while a reversal could reach $100,000. • BTC falls to $88,200, putting an end to its extended consolidation period and causing major market volatility. • More than $1.34 billion worth of liquidations erased 367,500 traders in 24 hours, with the single biggest order valued at $20.80 million on Binance. • Bybit lost about $2 billion worth of BTC reserves following a security breach, and this triggered heightened investor withdrawals and market volatility. • The breach and market anxiety prompted a wide sell-off, driving Bitcoin to lower support levels and enhancing downward momentum. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 30, which indicates strong bearish momentum and a possible further price drop. • Experts warn that Bitcoin may test the $85,000 level if the bearish trend persists, fuelling fears of further corrections. • If Bitcoin recovers, it may retest its $100,000 psychological level, so investor sentiment will be the key to what happens next. Bitcoin’s recent decline below $90,000 has caused shockwaves in the cryptocurrency space, spawning across-the-board liquidations and jitters among investors. The unexpected dip follows a security hack at Bybit, where up to $2 billion worth of BTC reserves were stolen, leading the majority of users to withdraw their funds. The incident has raised eyebrows regarding the security of centralized exchanges and the need for self-custodial wallets. The cryptocurrency community is paying close attention to how exchanges react to such incidents, as investor sentiment is important in keeping the market stable.  BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The sell-off has also affected traders, with more than $1.34 billion worth of liquidations taking place within 24 hours, hitting 367,500 traders. Market sentiment has been dented, as fear and uncertainty spread after the Bybit incident. Though Bitcoin has experienced similar declines in the past, the situation now accentuates the increasing difficulty of securing digital assets. In the backdrop, talk of decentralized finance (DeFi) and self-custody is gaining traction as investors look for safer options to safeguard their investments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s recent price action indicates robust bearish momentum, with the price falling below the important psychological level of $90,000. The collapse of this level precipitated massive liquidations, indicating rising selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen to 30, close to oversold levels, which means that BTC may be in need of a short-term rebound. But the inability to stay above the $94,000 support level indicates that Bitcoin may test lower support levels, with $85,000 becoming a key level to monitor. On the positive side, a bounce above $91,500 might be a sign of a reversal but with stubborn resistance at $94,000 and $100,000 that could cap the upside action. Traders are taking keen interest in volume action and market sentiment to determine if Bitcoin will bounce back into its bullish trend or maintain its downside correction. FORECAST Bitcoin’s recent fall below $90,000 is a sign of sustained selling, with prospects of further downward action. The breakdown of the crucial support levels has added bearish momentum, and if BTC cannot hold up above $88,000, it might prolong its correction down to $85,000. Market sentiment is still weak courtesy of the Bybit security breach, which has instilled fear among investors. Also, liquidation figures indicate that investors are selling their positions, which further adds to the negative momentum. If selling persists, Bitcoin could struggle to establish firm support, paving the way for a potential retest of lower levels. Bitcoin has proven to be resilient in the past in bouncing back from market dips. If investors step in and push BTC above $91,500, it can regain its bullish trend, with a possible retest of the $94,000 resistance level. A break above this range could unleash more gains, with the psychological $100,000 level being the next key resistance. Moreover, if RSI stays in oversold levels for a long time, a relief rally may happen, drawing buyers who seek cheap entry points. Institutional demand and overall

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Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Grapples with Multi-Month Low Volatility in the Face of FTX Repayments and Market Volatility

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  • February 20, 2025
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Bitcoin price has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, with volatility reaching multi-month lows, raising the specter of potential liquidation cascades. The recent slide to $93,388 was precipitated by FTX repayments, as the bankrupt exchange started reimbursing clients with account balances below $50,000. A K33 Research report points out that trading volumes, yields, options premiums, and ETF flows have fallen to levels last witnessed prior to the US Presidential election, indicating a risk-averse market sentiment. As Bitcoin grapples with breaking out of its range, analysts caution that a clear move below $94,000 has the potential to drive prices to the psychological $90,000 level, while a breakout above $100,000 could propel a retest of its January highs. Traders are still undecided, with technical indicators reflecting consolidation and indecision in BTC’s direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong break below $94,000 may lead to a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 might propel a bullish run. • Ongoing customer refunds, amounting to as much as $16.5 billion, may impact Bitcoin’s liquidity and sentiment in the weeks ahead. • Low volatility of BTC is a cause for concern of resultant cascades of liquidations, with speculators waiting for a trigger to a large price shift. • RSI at 42 and MACD convergence indicate consolidation, with speculators looking for a decisive directional breakout in the trend of Bitcoin’s prices. The price of Bitcoin is still in narrow consolidation at $94,000 to $100,000 levels, with volatility at multi-month lows, keeping speculators in the dark. The recent fall to $93,388 was prompted by FTX repayments as the exchange started to reimburse clients, impacting market liquidity. A report by K33 Research points to decreasing trading volumes, yields, and ETF flows as indicative of a risk-averse market sentiment. If Bitcoin drops below $94,000, it may test the psychological $90,000 support level, while a break above $100,000 can result in a retest of January highs. With technical signals indicating indecisiveness, traders are waiting for a catalyst for a clear price direction. Bitcoin is range-trading between $94,000 and $100,000 with volatility at multi-month lows, sparking fears of liquidation risks. FTX repayments have affected market liquidity, with traders waiting for a breakout. A fall below $94,000 may drive BTC to $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 might give rise to a bullish rally. • BTC has been range-bound between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, failing to break its range. • The recent price drop was spurred by FTX starting repayments, affecting market liquidity and sentiment among traders. • BTC’s volatility has come down to multi-month lows, which is of concern regarding the possibility of liquidation cascades in case a significant move takes place. • The RSI at 42 and MACD convergence suggest there is no distinct momentum, representing uncertainty in the market. • A breakdown below $94,000 can send BTC towards $90,000, and a breakout above $100,000 can induce a rally. • Slumping trading volumes, ETF flows, and yields mean the traders are holding out for a clear directional move. • There is no immediate bullish catalyst in the offing, so BTC’s next big move will rely on external market events. Bitcoin’s market activity has tempered noticeably, with volatility falling to multi-month lows, reflecting a risk-averse trading climate. One of the influencing factors in the market is recent FTX repayments, wherein the exchange has initiated repayment of customers who had claims worth less than $50,000, and higher repayment amounts are to be initiated shortly. This has brought liquidity changes, which have resulted in shifting trader sentiment. Furthermore, a K33 Research report suggests that volumes of trading, ETF flows, and yields have fallen to their lowest level since prior to the previous U.S. Presidential election, an indication of less market participation and skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s next big move. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The current market stage is marked by indecisiveness, as investors wait for clear indications before making big moves. With moderate leverage in the market, the possibility of instant large-scale liquidations is still low, but the absence of strong momentum indicates that traders are following a wait-and-watch strategy. Market sentiment is still guarded, and there are no imminent drivers for significant price action. The medium- to long-term direction of Bitcoin is still subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and institutional investment, all of which will have their say in the next wave of market action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical charts show that Bitcoin is in consolidation, with no obvious momentum to break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, indicating neutral to weakly bearish sentiment since it cannot break above the 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are still tightly entwined, indicating uncertainty among traders. The price has been ranging within a tight band, with support and resistance levels controlling short-term actions. Also, CME futures premiums have fallen below 5%, a historically important level that tends to precede changes in market trends. With the current configuration, traders are watching closely for any breakout above or below the consolidation range, which may determine the next major move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break above the $100,000 resistance level, it may initiate a new bullish momentum, drawing fresh buying interest. A break above this range could lead to a retest of its January high at $106,012, possibly marking the beginning of a more sustained uptrend. Optimism in the market, institutional inflows, and other general economic drivers like regulatory clarity or ETF-based demand might propel this rally further. Historically, Bitcoin has fared well in more robust basis regimes, so an improvement in trading volume and investor sentiment could keep the momentum on the upside. On the negative side, if Bitcoin cannot sustain the $94,000 support level, it may drop further towards the psychologically important $90,000 level. A breakdown below this level could cause stop-loss selling and intensify selling pressure, resulting in further downward movement. Moreover, low volatility and diminishing trading activity mean that a precipitous

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