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Bitcoin Open Interest Exceeds All-Time High on Price Volatility and Picking-Up ETF Inflows

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  • May 23, 2025
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Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed to an all-time high of $80 billion as investors more and more rely on leverage to wager on rising prices, even with the cryptocurrency falling below $111,000. This escalation in open interest indicates increasing market speculation and inherent volatility, as big leveraged positions stand at risk of compelled liquidations if prices go against them. Meanwhile, sizeable inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—more than $2.5 billion this week—can potentially stabilize the market. Also, Bitcoin options reflect strong activity near strike prices of $110,000 to $130,000, with almost $2.76 billion in contracts about to expire, reflecting a nuanced balance of bullish and bearish wagers forward. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin futures open interest reached more than $80 billion, reflecting substantial leveraged speculation and potential for sudden market action. • If the price of Bitcoin moves against leveraged traders, they may be compelled to execute forceful liquidations that initiate sharp price falls and enhance volatility. • More than $2.5 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs have been drawn this week, which can neutralize selling pressures from futures markets. • Almost $2.76 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are approaching maturity, with the most important strike prices between $110,000 and $130,000 impacting market sentiment. Bitcoin’s market is exhibiting increased activity as futures open interest hits an all-time $80 billion, a sign of strong levered wagering on price appreciation. The surge increases the risk of greater volatility, since a negative price action would force the liquidation of leveraged positions that could lead to steep sell-offs. The market is balanced somewhat, though, by strong flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs that have witnessed more than $2.5 billion invested this week, which acts to stabilize. Meanwhile, options markets remain active with nearly $2.76 billion in contracts expiring soon, centered around strike prices between $110,000 and $130,000, highlighting a complex interplay of bullish and bearish expectations ahead. Bitcoin futures open interest reached a record $80 billion, indicating heavy leveraged wagers with increasing market speculation. Even after a recent price drop below $111,000, solid ETF inflows of more than $2.5 billion this week could soothe volatility. Soon-to-expire options near important strike prices contribute to the market’s dynamic nature. •  Bitcoin futures open interest hit an all-time high of more than $80 billion on May 23, an increase of 30% from early May. •  The spike in open interest means extreme leverage and increased speculation among traders speculating on the price action of Bitcoin. •  Big levered positions heighten risk of forced liquidation when Bitcoin’s price goes against the traders, which may lead to steep price declines. •  Spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed over $2.5 billion in inflows this week, which could go some way to counteract selling pressure from leveraged futures positions. •  Bitcoin’s price dipped below $111,000 briefly on May 23, following its new all-time high of $112,000 the previous day. •  Bitcoin options open interest is more than $1.5 billion in strikes from $110,000 to $120,000, with more than $1 billion at the $115,000, $125,000, and $130,000 strikes. •  Approximately $2.76 billion of options contracts are about to expire, with a put/call ratio of 1.2 and a max pain price of $103,000, showing where the majority of losses are likely to be concentrated at expiry. Bitcoin’s popularity among traders only grows larger, as seen in an increase in the number of contracts being traded for futures. This increase indicates greater confidence and interest in Bitcoin’s future value. Concurrently, considerable investment is heading into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making investment in Bitcoin simpler for more users through mainstream financial markets. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The market right now is a combination of excitement and wariness, with investors eagerly monitoring the way these trends unfold. The high number of contracts expiring in the near future mirrors continued interest and participation from traders, which indicates that Bitcoin is still a central priority for most in the financial community. As a whole, these events underscore the increasing mainstream acceptance and fluidity of the cryptocurrency market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s technical environment illustrates increased action as futures open interest hits record highs, reflecting substantial leveraged positions established by traders expecting price to rise. Options information indicates strong open interest concentration at crucial strike prices of between $110,000 and $130,000, implying the levels are pivotal for sentiment. Also, the impending expiry of close to $2.76 billion in options contracts—with a put/call ratio marginally skewed towards puts—indicates a subtle equilibrium between bearish and bullish bets, with the near-term price action extremely responsive to changes in trader positioning and possible forced selling. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to hold firm support near important levels and investor demand for spot ETFs keeps increasing, the market might experience more gains. The very high open interest in futures and options demonstrates high confidence that Bitcoin is likely to push to new all-time highs. Institutional take-up and investor sentiment towards Bitcoin as a hedge or investment increasing could drive price higher, provided broader market conditions remain friendly. Conversely, excessive leverage utilization in futures markets carries risks of steep declines. If Bitcoin’s price falls below key support levels, leveraged position liquidations at disadvantageous prices may intensify selling pressure, resulting in steep price drops and heightened volatility. Moreover, the high number of expiring options contracts near maturity can create price fluctuations as traders roll over or close positions, contributing to market uncertainty in the short term.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Stabilizes at $105,000 Resistance with Increasing Institutional Appetite and International Trade Hopes

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  • May 17, 2025
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Bitcoin is presently holding steady at around $103,000 after persistently probing the crucial $105,000 resistance level week after week. This uptrend is complemented by increasing institutional appetite, such as major corporate Bitcoin buying and continuous inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Hope for global trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs between the US, China, and the UK, and the softer US inflation data, have boosted risk-on attitudes in markets. Traders, however, need to exercise caution amid profit-taking cues from owners and market volatility initiated by the second round of repayments on the collapsed FTX exchange. Technical gauges indicate declining bullish pressure, emphasizing the chances of a pullback if Bitcoin is unable to break above resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin has not been able to close above this important level several times and thus is a significant hurdle to continued upside momentum. • Large-scale buys by companies such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise, as well as consistent spot ETF inflows, continue to underpin the bullish argument. • More recent tariff cuts and softer US CPI readings are fueling risk-on sentiment, which is likely to favor Bitcoin’s price action. • Rising realized profits among holders and bearish technicals like the RSI and MACD call for caution, as these may prompt a short-term pullback. Bitcoin’s immediate task is still to overcome the formidable resistance at $105,000, which has been tested a number of times but not broken. At the same time, increasing institutional and corporate demand, epitomized by massive Bitcoin buys and steady ETF inflows, is increasingly supporting its appeal as a strategic asset. Favorable news on world trade agreements and lower US inflation readings are also driving the risk-on tone that may underpin further advances. However, caution is warranted as profit-taking by holders and bearish technical indicators like the RSI and MACD signal the potential for a short-term pullback if the resistance holds. Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $105,000 resistance level amid strong institutional demand and positive global trade news. While risk-on sentiment supports potential gains, profit-taking and bearish technical signals suggest caution ahead. • Bitcoin price is range-bound at $103,000 following several biddings off the $105,000 resistance level. • Recent global trade agreements among the US, China, and UK have relaxed tariff tensions, lifting market sentiment. • Less-than-expected US inflation data has underpinned bets for future Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. • Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise are buying large sums of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. •  US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain experiencing solid inflows, indicative of increasing institutional appetite. •  Profit-taking by owners following recent price appreciation may enhance selling pressure and cause short-term correction. •  Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicating diminishing bullish momentum, recommending caution for investors. Bitcoin’s recent stability around the $103,000 level indicates increasing optimism fueled by favorable trends in international trade and rising institutional demand. Significant trade deals between the US, China, and the UK have reduced tariff tensions and increased risk asset confidence, including Bitcoin. Coupled with this, milder US inflation readings have strengthened expectations of cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the future, further incentivizing investors to look at assets with higher growth prospects. This favorable macroeconomic environment is driving steady demand for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also accelerating, with firms like Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise unveiling material accumulation plans to keep Bitcoin as a component of their treasury holdings. Furthermore, regulatory clarity is strengthening as nations like Ukraine consider legislation for a national Bitcoin reserve, indicating increasing sovereign interest. These trends, along with sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicate rising legitimacy and long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s place within diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin has faced stiff resistance at the $105,000 level, unable to cross it despite several attempts over the last week. Momentum indicators are also indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, with some important measures indicating that traders are beginning to take profits after gains. This has seen a consolidation period, with Bitcoin stabilizing just above $100,000. If the resistance at $105,000 holds firm, Bitcoin may experience a temporary pullback to probe support levels, so it is crucial to keep an eye on price action in the near term. FORECAST Bitcoin’s outlook is positive as increasing institutional demand and robust corporate accumulation are good bases for higher prices. Favorable global trade news and de-escalating tariff tensions are boosting overall market confidence that may cause additional inflows into Bitcoin. Also, constant interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs keeps fueling liquidity and legitimacy, which could create the way for a prolonged rally if Bitcoin can break through the crucial $105,000 resistance point. Fresh buying pressure at that juncture would drive prices upwards, drawing even more investors and strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve asset. Conversely, Bitcoin has issues that might prompt short-term falls. Profit-taking by owners following recent price increases could add selling pressure, particularly if the $105,000 resistance level is too powerful to breach. In addition, future volatility associated with the second round of repayments from the now-bankrupt FTX exchange can send the market into a tizzy. If Bitcoin cannot hold onto momentum and drops below key support around $100,000, it could come under additional pressure as risk-averse traders close out positions, potentially creating a potential retracement before any resumed uptrend.

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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Levels Out At Around $84,000 Following Regulatory Clarity and Fed Policy Cues

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  • March 22, 2025
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Bitcoin holds its ground at $84,000 this week thanks to encouraging regulatory clarity from the US SEC and sound interest rate policy cues from the Federal Reserve. Institutional buying is also recovering, as evident from healthy flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Furthermore, decreasing global tensions and crypto-positive utterances by political leaders have additionally improved confidence levels in the market. As technical indicators report contradictory signals, total sentiment remains positive but with caution since Bitcoin is still acquiring mainline popularity and regulatory approval. KEY LOOKOUTS • The SEC explanation that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining incentives are not securities boosted investor mood and may usher in new institutional investors for Bitcoin. • The Federal Reserve maintained rates steady and repeated its rate cutting projection, creating a conducive macroeconomic climate for crypto assets such as Bitcoin. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net inflow of $661.20 million this week, which could be an indication of a renewed surge in institutional demand and a relief from recent sell-side pressure. • The ongoing Gaza tensions and Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the 200-day EMA are reasons for concern. A more severe pullback is possible if BTC fails to regain support above $85,500. Even with Bitcoin stabilizing near the $84,000 level this week, the market continues to hang in the balance as a combination of macroeconomic drivers and geopolitical considerations remains at large to shape investor sentiments. The recent indication by the US SEC that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining incentives do not constitute securities has given a regulatory boost with the potential to attract more institutional investment. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s stance in keeping interest rates unchanged and reaffirming its rate-cut projection has provided a positive environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Further, the significant net inflow of $661.20 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates a potential resurrection in institutional demand. Still, increased geopolitical tensions push, especially in Gaza, and Bitcoin’s failure to hold above the 200-day EMA mean caution continues to be justified in the short term. Bitcoin stays flat at $84,000 with positive regulatory clarity and consistent Fed policies. Solid ETF inflows indicate increasing institutional demand, but geopolitical tensions and technical resistance at the 200-day EMA make caution prudent in advance. • Bitcoin price steadies at $84,000 after recovering 2% for the week. • US SEC makes it clear PoW mining rewards aren’t securities, with improving market sentiment. • The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged and holds rate cut projection for 2025. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs see a net inflow of $661.20 million, with increased institutional demand. • BTC briefly reached $87,000 but couldn’t hold above its 200-day EMA, reflecting technical weakness. • Geopolitical events, such as the Gaza conflict and US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, remain in the minds of investors. • If BTC cannot retake the 200-day EMA at $85,500, then a correction to support levels of $78,258 is likely. Bitcoin remained resilient this week, maintaining its ground around the $84,000 mark against general market uncertainties. One of the main drivers behind this stability is the encouraging regulatory progress from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which made it clear that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining rewards do not fall under securities. This move has generated a big increase in investor sentiment and indicated a more positive approach to the crypto market. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to holding interest rates and keeping its rate cut view for the year has also boosted sentiment in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Furthermore, the substantial inflow of $661.20 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates renewed institutional investor appetite, reflecting increased confidence and long-term hope in the market. Other positive global events, including diplomatic negotiations among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, have also been contributing to reducing some of the investor anxiety. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s friendly attitude toward crypto, particularly his speech during the Digital Asset Summit, further contributed to the general positive storyline for the space. As Bitcoin keeps gaining acceptance from the mainstream and institutional investment, such developments become instrumental in defining the future direction of digital assets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin encountered resistance after touching briefly the $87,000 threshold earlier in the week but found it difficult to sustain above pivotal levels. Despite breaking above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) initially, it could not sustain that level of support, which could indicate short-term vulnerability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed losing momentum, moving below the mid-point 50 level. If Bitcoin is able to retake and maintain above the 200-day EMA around $85,500, it may continue its rally towards the $90,000 psychological level. But if it fails to retake this level, it may pull back towards the next significant support level around $78,258. FORECAST Bitcoin is able to retake and hold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $85,500, it may indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. Bullish macroeconomic signals, regulatory guidance by the SEC, and robust institutional flows via spot ETFs can be the stimulus needed for BTC to test the $87,000 resistance area again. If a breakout occurs above this threshold, it will clear the way for the next important psychological target of $90,000, which will continue to draw more buyers and further solidify general market sentiment. On the negative side, though, if Bitcoin cannot retake support at the 200-day EMA and keeps facing selling pressure, it can activate a deeper correction. The subsequent important support comes at around $78,258, and breaking below that may increase bearish sentiment. Rising geopolitical tensions or declining ETF inflows are also possible causes of increased selling pressure. In this scenario, investors are likely to adopt a risk-off strategy, causing further short-term downside action.

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