Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Institutional Appetite and Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Power BTC Rebound Towards $120K
Bitcoin rebounded almost 4% this week, rising back towards $112,000 as solid institutional flows and increasing corporate uptake helped stabilize downside pressure. Investor sentiment firmed following softer US labor market numbers lifted rate-cut hopes at the Federal Reserve, which may help support risk assets such as BTC further. With more than $400 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies like Metaplanet and CIMG building reserves, institutional demand continues to be the primary driver. Yet, traders are cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may define the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory and determine the direction for Bitcoin’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report might affect rate-cut expectations directly, impacting BTC’s momentum. • Ongoing flows into Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buying are pivotal in maintaining price gains. • BTC has to stay above $110,750 support and overcome $116,000–$117,400 resistance to continue gains towards $120K. • Crypto Fear & Greed Index recovery into neutral indicates bearish pressure easing, though caution is advisable amidst conflicting momentum signals. Bitcoin has mounted a steady recovery this week, recouping almost 4% to trade at about $112,000 as institutional buying and corporate uptake continue to underpin price action. Sentiment on possible Federal Reserve rate cuts, after softer US labor market data, has also helped drive risk-on sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $400 million in inflows, with companies like Metaplanet and CIMG increasing their BTC holdings, highlighting increased confidence from institutional investors. Traders are still cautious, however, ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may give new hints on the policy direction of the Fed and establish the tone for Bitcoin’s next significant movement. Bitcoin recovered almost 4% this week to trade at around $112,000, backed by firm ETF inflows and business buying. Weaker US labor data supported Fed rate-cut hopes, although traders are waiting for the NFP report for new direction. • Weaker US labor data lifted hopes for September rate cuts, supporting BTC’s bounce. • Jobs data on Friday may determine the next significant directional move for BTC. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $406 million in inflows during the week, indicating strong demand. • Companies such as Metaplanet and CIMG increased Bitcoin reserves, upholding long-term support. • Important supports are at $107,429 and $110,750, with resistance between $116,000–$120,000. • Recovery of Fear & Greed Index to 48 indicates weakening bearish pressure and neutral sentiment. • Global appetite for risk and performance of USD continue to play key roles in determining BTC momentum. Bitcoin’s rally during the week was largely driven by institutional and corporate buying, which continues to cement its position as a long-term investment vehicle. Over $400 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs registered for the second consecutive week of gains, and bluechip companies such as Metaplanet and CIMG added to reserves. These strategic buys reflect increasing faith in Bitcoin as a treasury holding and underscore the expanding acceptance of the cryptocurrency among traditional financial institutions. Meanwhile, a study by River uncovered that BTC is among the largest daily purchasers of Bitcoin by treasury companies, with companies investing significantly more than a token portion of their revenues into the asset, which reflects increasing grassroots adoption. BITCOIN DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView At the macroeconomic level, hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to the bull run, as deteriorating US labor market numbers strengthened the argument for less monetary tightening. The scenario has enhanced the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a store of value, particularly as traditional fiat currencies come under growing pressure. Adding to the optimism, voices such as Ray Dalio stressed crypto as a sound money with controlled supply versus debt-bloated fiat systems. As the Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved back into neutral levels, investor sentiment appears to be stabilizing, indicating that market participants are slowly regaining confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin regained steam after rebounding from its weekly low close to $107,429 and is currently trading around $112,000. BTC on the 4-hour chart broke out above a downtrend line a while back during the week and is presently indicating bullish strength with the backing of a bullish RSI reading above 50 and a possible MACD bullish crossover. The chart for the day indicates that BTC was trading above its 100-day EMA at $110,753, confirming its short-term strength. As long as the rise persists, the near-term resistance would be around $116,000–$117,400, whereas a clean breakout over those levels could pave the way to the crucial psychological level of $120,000. FORECAST If institutional investment and corporate adoption keep coming in at the same rate, Bitcoin may extend its recovery towards the $116,000–$117,400 range in the immediate term. A decisive break above these resistance levels should set the stage for a retest of the psychological landmark at $120,000. Favorable macro conditions, including Fed rate-cut expectations and softening US Dollar strength, may further fuel risk-on sentiment and draw further inflows into Bitcoin, propelling it higher. Conversely, if the US Nonfarm Payrolls figure comes in better-than-anticipated, it might temper Fed rate-cut expectations and push Bitcoin’s price lower. Not being able to stay above near-term support at $110,750 might expose BTC to further losses, with a test of $107,429 likely if bears gain more momentum. Also, a reversal in investor sentiment towards risk aversion or redemptions from spot ETFs may cap Bitcoin’s rebound and keep the market under bear pressure in the near term.
