Forex Trading Tools and Services

Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Grapples with Market Volatility: Price Reversal in Wake of Tariff Indecision and Institutional Withdrawal

  • BY
  • April 12, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Bitcoin prices have had an extreme price volatility this week, reversing their year-to-date low of $74,508 to trade about $82,500 by Friday. This reversals come despite increasing market indecision, ignited by President Trump’s tariff decrees and eventual 90-day reprieve. Although the cryptocurrency experienced a short-term rally on news of the tariff postponement, institutional appetite is still in the dumps, with Bitcoin spot ETFs witnessing a high net outflow. Also, fear of MicroStrategy’s possible sell-off of Bitcoin can also put more pressure on the market. Yet, against these odds, there have been some glimmers of hope, such as regulatory initiatives in Hong Kong to develop the region’s crypto market and hints that capitulation among investors may be almost over. Bitcoin’s prospects remain uncertain, with the potential varying from a recovery on a short-term basis to more losses, depending on market response to crucial technical levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market response to President Trump’s tariff actions, such as the 90-day delay, continues to be a major driver for Bitcoin’s short-term price action. Any developments or changes in trade tensions could have a profound effect on Bitcoin’s volatility. •  Ongoing withdrawals from Bitcoin spot ETFs, amounting to $712.27 million, reflect a declining institutional demand. This may exert downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin if it continues, especially since institutional investors have been responsible for the stability of Bitcoin’s price over the past few years. •  MicroStrategy’s large unrealized Bitcoin losses and its heavy dependence on Bitcoin as a core asset raise eyebrows. If the company were to be compelled to sell its holding, it would unleash a selling frenzy, accelerating supply pressure and affecting sentiment in the market. •  Although the market’s difficulties, the diminishing size of losses over recent weeks may signal that investor despair is close to ending. This may signal a possible change in market mood, providing a beacon of hope for a longer-term turnaround. Bitcoin’s market prospects are extremely unclear, fueled by continued tariff concerns, declining institutional demand, and the possible influence of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin positions. The recent market volatility, following President Trump’s tariff statements and a follow-on 90-day hiatus, has seen tremendous price swings, as Bitcoin recovered to a year-to-date low around $82,500. Still, while recovery was noted, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced deep outflows indicating declining institutional enthusiasm. Additionally, the potential threat of MicroStrategy having to dispose of some portion of its held Bitcoins because it has to honor financial obligations can threaten market stability. But indications of investor capitulation are beginning to display signs of fatigue, which might portend a move towards greater stability in the near term. The price of Bitcoin has seen extreme volatility, bouncing from a low of $74,508 to about $82,500 in the face of tariff uncertainty and declining institutional demand. Although fears of possible sell-offs by MicroStrategy and ETF outflows remain, indications of investor capitulation might signal a move towards stability. • Bitcoin’s value has experienced high levels of volatility over the past week, rallying from a low point of $74,508 to approximately $82,500, fueled by market indecision. •  The original decline in the value of Bitcoin was prompted by tensions regarding President Trump’s tariff statements, but a later 90-day respite sent relief signals and initiated a relatively modest rebound. •  Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced heavy outflows, worth $712.27 million, as institutional investors lose interest. • MicroStrategy had a huge unrealized loss of $5.91 billion on its Bitcoin holdings, and there was concern that the company could be compelled to sell some of its Bitcoin to meet financial obligations. • If MicroStrategy is compelled to sell its Bitcoin holdings, it would cause a market sell-off, exacerbating supply pressure and hurting Bitcoin’s price. •  The size of losses trapped throughout the crypto space has fallen with every subsequent price leg lower, and this implies that investor capitulation is finally on the verge of concluding. • Hong Kong’s move to legalize staking by approved platforms and ETFs is regarded as an encouraging development, signaling increasing regulatory clarity and facilitating institutional adoption, which indirectly may benefit Bitcoin demand. The price of Bitcoin this week has been closely tied to events around the world and market response to uncertainties about trade policy. One of the main drivers of volatility was the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, followed by a brief moratorium that gave some relief to the market. Although Bitcoin rallied, there is still concern over institutional interest as seen in high outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. This signals a change in institutional investors’ perspective toward the cryptocurrency, which might cause more trouble for the markets. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the corporate front, MicroStrategy’s financial condition has been a cause for concern as the company is sitting on huge unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings. The threat of possible sell-offs to meet financial commitments can rattle investor confidence and increase market pressure. There are, however, encouraging signs, like Hong Kong’s decision to strengthen its crypto regulations, which can drive future institutional demand and lay the groundwork for long-term growth in the space. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The price action of Bitcoin this week has been characterized by extreme volatility, with the cryptocurrency staging a temporary bounce following a new year-to-date low. The price of Bitcoin failed to pass resistance levels, especially the $85,000 level, and was rejected by a declining trendline extending from highs made before. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a possible increase in bearish momentum, showing that the price may see more corrections if it is unable to sustain upward momentum. Although the recent bounce back, Bitcoin’s technical outlook continues to be uncertain, with chances of a temporary rally or continued downfall based on how the market reacts to critical price levels and trendlines. FORECAST The price of Bitcoin may continue its recovery if it manages to break above the falling trendline and close above crucial resistance points, including $85,000. If this happens, it could unlock more bullish momentum, driving Bitcoin towards the psychological $90,000 level, and

Read More
Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation, Weak Demand, and Correction Risks Ahead

  • BY
  • February 22, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $94,000 and $100,000, with weakening institutional demand reflected in $489.60 million of ETF outflows and decreasing network activity, while technical indicators like a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential upside if BTC can break above $100,000—yet muted RSI momentum and upcoming FTX repayments highlight prevailing market uncertainty, and CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may experience further corrections down to $86,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 in the face of large ETF redemptions and softening institutional buying, which presents a tenuous price setting for risk-averse traders. • A bullish MACD crossover presents possible upside momentum in case Bitcoin crosses $100,000, but soft RSI and low network activity continue to increase risk worries. • Deadbeat FTX repayments are creating market uncertainty, as smaller creditor payments trigger nervousness among investors while waiting for larger payment schedules beginning on May 30. • CryptoQuant’s report cautions that in the absence of better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation might fail, potentially dropping prices to support levels at $86,000. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 as institutional appetite falters, with ETF redemptions worth $489.60 million supporting weak market conditions. A bullish MACD crossover suggests possible uptrend momentum if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, though muted RSI readings and low network activity hint at continued market conservatism. CryptoQuant cautions that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to support levels around $86,000, with FTX repayment uncertainties providing additional investor jitters. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 on weak institutional buying and heavy ETF outflows. A bullish MACD crossover indicates upward momentum, but muted RSI and low network activity call for caution. CryptoQuant advises that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin can fall to support levels around $86,000. •  Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February. •  US Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate net withdrawals of $489.60 million through Thursday. •  CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to about $86,000. •  Institutional demand is declining, contributing to the present delicate market conditions. •  Deceased FTX payments have brought further uncertainty, with smaller creditors already being paid. •  A bullish MACD crossover indicates possible upward momentum in case Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier. •  Slowing network activity and multi-month low volatility indicate investor caution. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000, with dipping institutional demand and high ETF outflows. The sentiment of the current crypto market is further subdued by weak network activity, with the network activity index of Bitcoin being the lowest in a year, reflecting a general loss of interest in the markets. This deteriorating demand, along with persisting fears about liquidity, is keeping investors nervous, with some expecting additional price corrections if things do not start looking up. On the other hand, market uncertainty has been compounded by the process of repayment of FTX creditors that has created further uncertainty. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA These trends have resulted in a tentative market environment where aggregate demand seems to be declining. Furthermore, the ongoing exercise of settling creditors by the collapsed FTX exchange has contributed to existing uncertainty among stakeholders. Market players are monitoring these events keenly, as sustained issues with demand and liquidity may have long-term implications for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin technicals imply a guarded accumulation for a possible directional move. The bullish MACD crossover of the daily chart implies a likely surge in momentum in case Bitcoin is able to break through the $100,000 mark, and the RSI staying close to its neutral point of 50 indicates an even tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The consolidation in the $94,000 to $100,000 range indicates a time of balance, with low volatility and moderate volume supporting the idea that a major breakout or breakdown may be on the horizon. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break convincingly above the $100,000 level, the market is likely to find renewed bullish thrust, with upside price action in the direction of the January 30 high of around $106,457. Favorable technical signals like the MACD crossover indicate a probable sustained upside based on growing momentum fueled by optimistic investor sentiment or favorable market developments. If Bitcoin is unable to hold support at the present consolidation level and breaks below $94,000, it may be subject to further price corrections. Further weakening of demand and liquidity conditions, along with uncertainty in the market, might push Bitcoin’s price down to critical support levels around $86,000. This could be worsened by low network usage and continued institutional outflows, which are indicators of a weakening market.

Read More
Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Grapples with Multi-Month Low Volatility in the Face of FTX Repayments and Market Volatility

  • BY
  • February 20, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Bitcoin price has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, with volatility reaching multi-month lows, raising the specter of potential liquidation cascades. The recent slide to $93,388 was precipitated by FTX repayments, as the bankrupt exchange started reimbursing clients with account balances below $50,000. A K33 Research report points out that trading volumes, yields, options premiums, and ETF flows have fallen to levels last witnessed prior to the US Presidential election, indicating a risk-averse market sentiment. As Bitcoin grapples with breaking out of its range, analysts caution that a clear move below $94,000 has the potential to drive prices to the psychological $90,000 level, while a breakout above $100,000 could propel a retest of its January highs. Traders are still undecided, with technical indicators reflecting consolidation and indecision in BTC’s direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong break below $94,000 may lead to a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 might propel a bullish run. • Ongoing customer refunds, amounting to as much as $16.5 billion, may impact Bitcoin’s liquidity and sentiment in the weeks ahead. • Low volatility of BTC is a cause for concern of resultant cascades of liquidations, with speculators waiting for a trigger to a large price shift. • RSI at 42 and MACD convergence indicate consolidation, with speculators looking for a decisive directional breakout in the trend of Bitcoin’s prices. The price of Bitcoin is still in narrow consolidation at $94,000 to $100,000 levels, with volatility at multi-month lows, keeping speculators in the dark. The recent fall to $93,388 was prompted by FTX repayments as the exchange started to reimburse clients, impacting market liquidity. A report by K33 Research points to decreasing trading volumes, yields, and ETF flows as indicative of a risk-averse market sentiment. If Bitcoin drops below $94,000, it may test the psychological $90,000 support level, while a break above $100,000 can result in a retest of January highs. With technical signals indicating indecisiveness, traders are waiting for a catalyst for a clear price direction. Bitcoin is range-trading between $94,000 and $100,000 with volatility at multi-month lows, sparking fears of liquidation risks. FTX repayments have affected market liquidity, with traders waiting for a breakout. A fall below $94,000 may drive BTC to $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 might give rise to a bullish rally. • BTC has been range-bound between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, failing to break its range. • The recent price drop was spurred by FTX starting repayments, affecting market liquidity and sentiment among traders. • BTC’s volatility has come down to multi-month lows, which is of concern regarding the possibility of liquidation cascades in case a significant move takes place. • The RSI at 42 and MACD convergence suggest there is no distinct momentum, representing uncertainty in the market. • A breakdown below $94,000 can send BTC towards $90,000, and a breakout above $100,000 can induce a rally. • Slumping trading volumes, ETF flows, and yields mean the traders are holding out for a clear directional move. • There is no immediate bullish catalyst in the offing, so BTC’s next big move will rely on external market events. Bitcoin’s market activity has tempered noticeably, with volatility falling to multi-month lows, reflecting a risk-averse trading climate. One of the influencing factors in the market is recent FTX repayments, wherein the exchange has initiated repayment of customers who had claims worth less than $50,000, and higher repayment amounts are to be initiated shortly. This has brought liquidity changes, which have resulted in shifting trader sentiment. Furthermore, a K33 Research report suggests that volumes of trading, ETF flows, and yields have fallen to their lowest level since prior to the previous U.S. Presidential election, an indication of less market participation and skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s next big move. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The current market stage is marked by indecisiveness, as investors wait for clear indications before making big moves. With moderate leverage in the market, the possibility of instant large-scale liquidations is still low, but the absence of strong momentum indicates that traders are following a wait-and-watch strategy. Market sentiment is still guarded, and there are no imminent drivers for significant price action. The medium- to long-term direction of Bitcoin is still subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and institutional investment, all of which will have their say in the next wave of market action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical charts show that Bitcoin is in consolidation, with no obvious momentum to break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, indicating neutral to weakly bearish sentiment since it cannot break above the 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are still tightly entwined, indicating uncertainty among traders. The price has been ranging within a tight band, with support and resistance levels controlling short-term actions. Also, CME futures premiums have fallen below 5%, a historically important level that tends to precede changes in market trends. With the current configuration, traders are watching closely for any breakout above or below the consolidation range, which may determine the next major move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break above the $100,000 resistance level, it may initiate a new bullish momentum, drawing fresh buying interest. A break above this range could lead to a retest of its January high at $106,012, possibly marking the beginning of a more sustained uptrend. Optimism in the market, institutional inflows, and other general economic drivers like regulatory clarity or ETF-based demand might propel this rally further. Historically, Bitcoin has fared well in more robust basis regimes, so an improvement in trading volume and investor sentiment could keep the momentum on the upside. On the negative side, if Bitcoin cannot sustain the $94,000 support level, it may drop further towards the psychologically important $90,000 level. A breakdown below this level could cause stop-loss selling and intensify selling pressure, resulting in further downward movement. Moreover, low volatility and diminishing trading activity mean that a precipitous

Read More