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Bitcoin Price Doodles in Neutral Zone Between 20-Day EMA Resistance, Crucial $106,400 Breakout

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  • June 5, 2025
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Bitcoin price is trapped in a six-day consolidation period, unable to overcome the resistance of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $105,300. Following its recent jump from $100,700 to an all-time high of $112,000, price has lost momentum, leading price to trade in a very narrow range between major Fibonacci support and resistance levels of $106,400 and $103,100. Since Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows weak momentum and price has not managed to re-take the 20-day EMA, near-term direction favors continued downside risk. A clear break above $106,400 is essential for bulls to bring back uptrend, while a fall beneath $103,100 may bring on heightened selling pressure. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe whether Bitcoin manages to break and sustain above this key moving average that has arrested recent attempts at a rebound. • A breakout above this resistance with success may indicate a bullish continuation towards the all-time high of $112,000. • This level has consistently drawn in buyers; a breakdown here can initiate heightened selling pressure. • Observe the RSI, particularly the reading on the 4-hour around 44, as a consistent move upwards can signal fresh buying strength, while further decline indicates ongoing bearish bias. Bitcoin price action is in a precarious state as it hovers in consolidation below the 20-day EMA, indicating market indecision following its recent sharp bounce. The cryptocurrency is caught in between solid resistance at $106,400 and key support around $103,100, with momentum gauges such as the RSI indicating limited upside. This lateral motion indicates that the market is holding back for a definite catalyst to initiate the next move, with a close above the 20-day EMA and the 50% Fibonacci level required to revive bullish impetus. Alternatively, a breakdown below support could lead to lower levels, keeping the short-term outlook in doubt and highly susceptible to key technical levels. Bitcoin remains trading sideways, rejections at the 20-day EMA and supports around $103,100. The absence of momentum and level RSI indicates indecision, and a break above $106,400 would be required to bring back bullishness. Otherwise, bearish risks are in the limelight. •  Bitcoin is ranging for the sixth consecutive day, between resistance at $106,400 and support at $103,100. • The 20-day EMA at $105,300 is forming a solid resistance, limiting all recent bounce efforts. • Price flashed a minor rally during the Asian session but could not maintain gains, reversing lower around $104,500. • RSI on the 4-hour chart is approximately 44, reflecting weak bullish buying pressure and possible downside bias. • A breakdown below $104,300 may result in a retest of $103,100, a major Fibonacci support level. • A strong breakout above $106,400 is required to resume the larger uptrend toward the record high of $112,000. • Deflated funding rates and recent long liquidations indicate the market could be resetting before a possible breakout. Bitcoin’s recent price action is indicative of a phase of uncertainty within the market as investors swallow recent profits and reconsider direction. Following a robust start to May, the momentum has tapered, with players seemingly holding back for new signals before opening new positions. This lull follows a wider sense of uncertainty among the global financial system, as macroeconomic considerations and sentiment increasingly influence short-term trading. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Throughout this consolidation phase, activity has been range-bound, implying that buyers and sellers are in a cautious mood. The muted action reflects a transient equilibrium in which neither has managed to prevail. To investors and observers, this type of situation tends to lead to a more forceful move in either direction, as the market accumulates pressure for a more definitive breakdown or breakthrough in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is encountering firm resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of about $105,300 that has consistently checked upward efforts. The price continues to be stuck in a defined range with $106,400 as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally and a key resistance level. Support, on the other hand, comes in at $103,100, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour scale is fluctuating near 44, showing weak momentum with no distinct bullish strength. As long as Bitcoin fails to break convincingly above the 20-day EMA and $106,400, the technical setup is inclined towards further consolidation or a potential retest of lower support zones. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break through the 20-day EMA and the $106,400 resistance level, then it may unleash fresh bullish momentum and make way for a push towards the previous all-time high at $112,000. Such a breakout will reflect a change in short-term sentiment and prompt new buying interest and perhaps even attract institutional investors into the market. A close above $106,400 would also invalidate the present consolidation pattern, implying that the larger uptrend from $100,700 would resume. On the negative side, not being able to hold above $104,300 would add to selling pressure and drive Bitcoin into the important support of $103,100. A firm break below this would potentially encourage a deeper correction and potentially draw additional liquidation from leveraged longs. If the support does fail to hold, bearish momentum could extend, extending the retracement to lower psychological levels, eroding recent gains and turning market sentiment more defensively.

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Bitcoin Open Interest Exceeds All-Time High on Price Volatility and Picking-Up ETF Inflows

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  • May 23, 2025
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Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed to an all-time high of $80 billion as investors more and more rely on leverage to wager on rising prices, even with the cryptocurrency falling below $111,000. This escalation in open interest indicates increasing market speculation and inherent volatility, as big leveraged positions stand at risk of compelled liquidations if prices go against them. Meanwhile, sizeable inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—more than $2.5 billion this week—can potentially stabilize the market. Also, Bitcoin options reflect strong activity near strike prices of $110,000 to $130,000, with almost $2.76 billion in contracts about to expire, reflecting a nuanced balance of bullish and bearish wagers forward. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin futures open interest reached more than $80 billion, reflecting substantial leveraged speculation and potential for sudden market action. • If the price of Bitcoin moves against leveraged traders, they may be compelled to execute forceful liquidations that initiate sharp price falls and enhance volatility. • More than $2.5 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs have been drawn this week, which can neutralize selling pressures from futures markets. • Almost $2.76 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are approaching maturity, with the most important strike prices between $110,000 and $130,000 impacting market sentiment. Bitcoin’s market is exhibiting increased activity as futures open interest hits an all-time $80 billion, a sign of strong levered wagering on price appreciation. The surge increases the risk of greater volatility, since a negative price action would force the liquidation of leveraged positions that could lead to steep sell-offs. The market is balanced somewhat, though, by strong flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs that have witnessed more than $2.5 billion invested this week, which acts to stabilize. Meanwhile, options markets remain active with nearly $2.76 billion in contracts expiring soon, centered around strike prices between $110,000 and $130,000, highlighting a complex interplay of bullish and bearish expectations ahead. Bitcoin futures open interest reached a record $80 billion, indicating heavy leveraged wagers with increasing market speculation. Even after a recent price drop below $111,000, solid ETF inflows of more than $2.5 billion this week could soothe volatility. Soon-to-expire options near important strike prices contribute to the market’s dynamic nature. •  Bitcoin futures open interest hit an all-time high of more than $80 billion on May 23, an increase of 30% from early May. •  The spike in open interest means extreme leverage and increased speculation among traders speculating on the price action of Bitcoin. •  Big levered positions heighten risk of forced liquidation when Bitcoin’s price goes against the traders, which may lead to steep price declines. •  Spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed over $2.5 billion in inflows this week, which could go some way to counteract selling pressure from leveraged futures positions. •  Bitcoin’s price dipped below $111,000 briefly on May 23, following its new all-time high of $112,000 the previous day. •  Bitcoin options open interest is more than $1.5 billion in strikes from $110,000 to $120,000, with more than $1 billion at the $115,000, $125,000, and $130,000 strikes. •  Approximately $2.76 billion of options contracts are about to expire, with a put/call ratio of 1.2 and a max pain price of $103,000, showing where the majority of losses are likely to be concentrated at expiry. Bitcoin’s popularity among traders only grows larger, as seen in an increase in the number of contracts being traded for futures. This increase indicates greater confidence and interest in Bitcoin’s future value. Concurrently, considerable investment is heading into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), making investment in Bitcoin simpler for more users through mainstream financial markets. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The market right now is a combination of excitement and wariness, with investors eagerly monitoring the way these trends unfold. The high number of contracts expiring in the near future mirrors continued interest and participation from traders, which indicates that Bitcoin is still a central priority for most in the financial community. As a whole, these events underscore the increasing mainstream acceptance and fluidity of the cryptocurrency market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s technical environment illustrates increased action as futures open interest hits record highs, reflecting substantial leveraged positions established by traders expecting price to rise. Options information indicates strong open interest concentration at crucial strike prices of between $110,000 and $130,000, implying the levels are pivotal for sentiment. Also, the impending expiry of close to $2.76 billion in options contracts—with a put/call ratio marginally skewed towards puts—indicates a subtle equilibrium between bearish and bullish bets, with the near-term price action extremely responsive to changes in trader positioning and possible forced selling. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to hold firm support near important levels and investor demand for spot ETFs keeps increasing, the market might experience more gains. The very high open interest in futures and options demonstrates high confidence that Bitcoin is likely to push to new all-time highs. Institutional take-up and investor sentiment towards Bitcoin as a hedge or investment increasing could drive price higher, provided broader market conditions remain friendly. Conversely, excessive leverage utilization in futures markets carries risks of steep declines. If Bitcoin’s price falls below key support levels, leveraged position liquidations at disadvantageous prices may intensify selling pressure, resulting in steep price drops and heightened volatility. Moreover, the high number of expiring options contracts near maturity can create price fluctuations as traders roll over or close positions, contributing to market uncertainty in the short term.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Volatility Hangs Over Head as White House Crypto Summit Nears

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  • March 5, 2025
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Bitcoin is under increased volatility as it heads into the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, with prices at around $87,600 after stabilizing at $85,000. The summit, which takes place on Friday, is likely to determine future regulation and innovation in the crypto space, creating uncertainty for the market. While that is happening, Bitcoin ETFs also remain in apparent outflows, reflecting poor institutional demand, which may put additional pressure on prices. There is still some optimism, though, as Japanese investment company Metaplanet recently added to BTC holdings, which lifted investor morale. If the $85,000 support level remains, Bitcoin may try to recover, but traders should be wary of possible market volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • The coming summit has the potential to shape Bitcoin regulations and sentiment, which may result in heightened volatility and define the future of crypto policies. • Bitcoin ETFs saw $217.7 million in outflows this week, which indicates waning institutional appetite, and more price corrections can be expected if the trend continues. • Whether a recovery rally towards $95,000 is feasible will be determined by Bitcoin’s ability to maintain above this critical support, which is situated in line with the 200-day EMA. • Speculators around key events, such as Trump’s crypto position and regulatory changes, should be watched out for by traders since they may trigger sudden price movements and liquidations. The future of Bitcoin is uncertain as the crypto space prepares for possible volatility leading up to the White House Crypto Summit. The event may provide clarity on regulations, which will lead to investor confidence and institutional adoption. However, ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows indicate a cautious stance among institutional investors, raising concerns about market stability. While corporate investments like Metaplanet’s recent Bitcoin purchase reflect long-term optimism, short-term price movements will likely depend on regulatory outcomes and broader market sentiment. As the industry awaits key policy discussions, traders should prepare for possible fluctuations in the coming days. Bitcoin is susceptible to volatility ahead of the White House Crypto Summit, with investors keenly monitoring regulatory updates. Institutional withdrawals keep weighing on BTC, while support at $85,000 holds the key for a rebound. Market speculation and changing sentiment are likely to generate sharp price moves, and thus caution is advisable for investors. • The historic summit may dictate regulatory policies and market sentiment and, in the process, drive Bitcoin volatility. • BTC fluctuates at $87,600 after rebounding from the $85,000 support, with possible recovery to $95,000 if momentum continues. • Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $217.7 million of outflows this week, indicating weakening institutional demand and possible further price corrections. • There was a brief rally after Trump’s ‘Crypto Strategic Reserve’ announcement but was wiped out, demonstrating a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. • BTC’s capacity to remain above this significant level, which coincides with the 200-day EMA, is important for any prospective bullish action. • Speculative actions surrounding regulatory news and institutional participation may cause sudden price movements and potential liquidations. • The $44 million BTC acquisition by the Japanese investment company sparked optimism, showing that some institutions continue to view Bitcoin as a solid asset. The upcoming White House Crypto Summit marks a significant moment for the cryptocurrency industry, bringing together key industry leaders, policymakers, and investors to discuss the future of digital assets. This event highlights the growing importance of cryptocurrency in the financial sector and signals the government’s increasing involvement in shaping regulations. With the topics of innovation, security, and compliance expected to be discussed, the summit may shape the way that crypto becomes a part of mainstream finance. The involvement of high-profile individuals further adds to the likely shift towards a more regulated and organized crypto environment. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView That being said, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains one of the most influential drivers of market sentiment at the same time. As some investment companies are expanding their Bitcoin reserves, overall fluctuations in demand are mirroring wider uncertainties within the sector. The shifting regulatory environment, as well as debates surrounding crypto policies at the highest level, may decide the next stage of adoption and integration. As institutions and governments adopt a more formal stance on digital assets, the future effect on the crypto market will be significantly based on the manner in which regulation strikes a balance between innovation and investor protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The crypto industry is at a pivotal juncture as global debate around regulation and adoption builds momentum. The forthcoming White House Crypto Summit is evidence of how digital assets increasingly play a role in mainstream finance as policymakers and industry executives convene to discuss the future of crypto innovation. The gathering underscores the necessity of clear regulatory guidelines to balance security, compliance, and expansion while instilling investor and institutional confidence. As governments and corporations chart their course through this shifting terrain, choices made today may determine the future place of cryptocurrencies within the world economy. FORECAST The price of Bitcoin may experience a bullish push if encouraging news flows from the White House Crypto Summit, especially if the conversation turns in the direction of straightforward and welcoming regulations. A well-defined regulatory environment would increase investor confidence, draw institutional investment, and propel Bitcoin’s acceptance within mainstream finance. Besides that, increased corporate investments, including Metaplanet’s latest Bitcoin buy, suggest some institutions still believe long-term prospects in digital assets. If that type of investment persists, Bitcoin might see fresh demand and price hikes in the near future. To the negative side, institutional participation uncertainty remains the most critical factor. Bitcoin ETFs have shown major outflows, implying deteriorating demand among big players, which would bear down on prices. In addition, regulatory uncertainty and market speculation tend to stimulate volatility, with sudden price fluctuations and potential liquidations impacting traders. In case institutional outflows continue and no firm regulatory support comes from the forthcoming summit, Bitcoin would find it challenging to stay stable and could be subject to further falls in the short term.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Rally Falters Amid Institutional Selling and Tariff Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Bitcoin was highly volatile this week, trading at around $86,000 following a steep 15% drop that saw prices dip as low as $82,256. The decline was largely fueled by President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and declining institutional demand, as seen through massive ETF outflows of $2.2 billion. Technical indicators, such as an oversold RSI, suggest a possible rebound, but traders are still wary in the face of general market uncertainty and concerns that more corrections will send Bitcoin’s price to about $73,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in outflows, adding selling pressure and raising questions about sustained downside momentum. • Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and North America add to market uncertainty, potentially putting additional weight on BTC price action. • BTC’s significant support is $73,000; a fall below this may initiate a deeper correction, but RSI suggests potential recovery. • As concerns over stagflation increase, Bitcoin remains trading in tandem with risk assets, with liquidation pressure in the face of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s latest price movement indicates a struggle between rebounding and more downward pressure, with the cryptocurrency stuck near $86,000 after an intense 15% fall this week. The rout was prompted by institutional players liquidating their holdings, with Bitcoin ETFs posting $2.2 billion of net redemptions over the last three days. Compounding the doubts, President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the European Union, as well as delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, triggered risk-off across world markets. The analysts suggest that if bearish pressure continues, BTC can challenge the decisive $73,000 support threshold. But as the RSI indicator also displays oversold, a possible flip remains in consideration, leaving speculators in waiting mode. Bitcoin is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall, fueled by institutional selling and Trump’s tariff threats against the EU. With $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin ETF outflows, market sentiment is still bearish, and BTC may test the $73,000 support level if selling pressure persists. Nevertheless, the RSI indicates oversold levels, which may see a rebound. • BTC is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall earlier this week. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in net outflows in the last three days, adding to selling pressure. • President Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and delayed duties on Canada and Mexico have sparked risk-off sentiment. • Stagflation and economic instability fears have prompted investors to cut risk exposure, affecting BTC prices. • If selling pressure persists, BTC may test the key $73,000 support level in the next few days. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold and may reflect a reversal or bounce. • Although there’s a possibility of a rebound, BTC is still volatile, and traders need to be ready for more price fluctuations. Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the influence of externalities, such as geopolitical tensions and changing investor sentiment. The current tariff talks, especially President Trump’s suggested 25% tariff on the European Union, have introduced uncertainty in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching closely as global economic policies continue to influence the digital asset space. Institutional investors, meanwhile, have been selling their Bitcoin holdings, adding to overall market trends and informing trading behavior. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from market forces, the use of Bitcoin as a hedge for economic uncertainty is also an important topic of discussion. While others consider it a store of value, there are others who perceive it as a high-risk asset to be buffeted by external factors. The cryptocurrency market is always closely associated with macroeconomic indicators, regulatory actions, and investor sentiment, all of which are influential in determining its future. With the changing global financial environment, Bitcoin remains in the middle of all the talk regarding digital assets and their role in today’s economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin recently broke below significant support levels, which was a sign of a change in momentum. The recent selling pressure, fueled by institutional outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties, has added to heightened volatility. Nonetheless, technical analysis using Relative Strength Index (RSI) also points toward oversold situations that might precipitate a reversal or short-lived relief rally. Even the trend of volume confirms diminished buying interest that continues to underscore cautious feelings from the trading fraternity. Bitcoin might experience more corrections unless it finds renewed strength past the levels of resistance, yet breaking through principal moving averages will reverse bullish vigor. FORECAST Bitcoin may pick up steam and move towards higher resistance levels. A decline in institutional outflows and renewed buying interest from big investors may create buying pressure, firming up the price. Moreover, any favorable macroeconomic news, including clarity on tariffs or alleviating inflation fears, may restore confidence in risk assets, including BTC. If demand picks up, Bitcoin may regain earlier highs and try to break resistance levels, indicating a possible bullish trend. On the negative side, Bitcoin is still susceptible to further corrections if selling pressure persists. Institutional investors selling their holdings and continued uncertainty regarding global economic policies may trigger another round of declines. If Bitcoin fails to hold onto key support levels, it can test lower price levels, possibly hitting the $73,000 level. Additionally, macroeconomic threats like extended stagflation concerns and decreased liquidity in financial markets may contribute to downward pressure, making short-term recovery difficult.

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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation, Weak Demand, and Correction Risks Ahead

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  • February 22, 2025
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Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $94,000 and $100,000, with weakening institutional demand reflected in $489.60 million of ETF outflows and decreasing network activity, while technical indicators like a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential upside if BTC can break above $100,000—yet muted RSI momentum and upcoming FTX repayments highlight prevailing market uncertainty, and CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may experience further corrections down to $86,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 in the face of large ETF redemptions and softening institutional buying, which presents a tenuous price setting for risk-averse traders. • A bullish MACD crossover presents possible upside momentum in case Bitcoin crosses $100,000, but soft RSI and low network activity continue to increase risk worries. • Deadbeat FTX repayments are creating market uncertainty, as smaller creditor payments trigger nervousness among investors while waiting for larger payment schedules beginning on May 30. • CryptoQuant’s report cautions that in the absence of better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation might fail, potentially dropping prices to support levels at $86,000. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 as institutional appetite falters, with ETF redemptions worth $489.60 million supporting weak market conditions. A bullish MACD crossover suggests possible uptrend momentum if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, though muted RSI readings and low network activity hint at continued market conservatism. CryptoQuant cautions that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to support levels around $86,000, with FTX repayment uncertainties providing additional investor jitters. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 on weak institutional buying and heavy ETF outflows. A bullish MACD crossover indicates upward momentum, but muted RSI and low network activity call for caution. CryptoQuant advises that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin can fall to support levels around $86,000. •  Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February. •  US Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate net withdrawals of $489.60 million through Thursday. •  CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to about $86,000. •  Institutional demand is declining, contributing to the present delicate market conditions. •  Deceased FTX payments have brought further uncertainty, with smaller creditors already being paid. •  A bullish MACD crossover indicates possible upward momentum in case Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier. •  Slowing network activity and multi-month low volatility indicate investor caution. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000, with dipping institutional demand and high ETF outflows. The sentiment of the current crypto market is further subdued by weak network activity, with the network activity index of Bitcoin being the lowest in a year, reflecting a general loss of interest in the markets. This deteriorating demand, along with persisting fears about liquidity, is keeping investors nervous, with some expecting additional price corrections if things do not start looking up. On the other hand, market uncertainty has been compounded by the process of repayment of FTX creditors that has created further uncertainty. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA These trends have resulted in a tentative market environment where aggregate demand seems to be declining. Furthermore, the ongoing exercise of settling creditors by the collapsed FTX exchange has contributed to existing uncertainty among stakeholders. Market players are monitoring these events keenly, as sustained issues with demand and liquidity may have long-term implications for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin technicals imply a guarded accumulation for a possible directional move. The bullish MACD crossover of the daily chart implies a likely surge in momentum in case Bitcoin is able to break through the $100,000 mark, and the RSI staying close to its neutral point of 50 indicates an even tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The consolidation in the $94,000 to $100,000 range indicates a time of balance, with low volatility and moderate volume supporting the idea that a major breakout or breakdown may be on the horizon. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break convincingly above the $100,000 level, the market is likely to find renewed bullish thrust, with upside price action in the direction of the January 30 high of around $106,457. Favorable technical signals like the MACD crossover indicate a probable sustained upside based on growing momentum fueled by optimistic investor sentiment or favorable market developments. If Bitcoin is unable to hold support at the present consolidation level and breaks below $94,000, it may be subject to further price corrections. Further weakening of demand and liquidity conditions, along with uncertainty in the market, might push Bitcoin’s price down to critical support levels around $86,000. This could be worsened by low network usage and continued institutional outflows, which are indicators of a weakening market.

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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation Ongoing Amid Fading Institutional Demand and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • February 15, 2025
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Bitcoin has consolidated between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, which is a period of indecision in the market. Institutional demand is fading, as seen through a $650.80 million net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Its correlation with the S&P 500 is still firm, but it has lost strength in correlation with Gold, as it is not a safe-haven asset but a risk-on asset. The macroeconomic backdrop, such as a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI report and Trump’s move to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, has introduced some volatility into the price action of BTC. Although technicals point to slightly bearish momentum, a conclusive breakout above $100,000 or below $94,000 might pave the way for Bitcoin’s next significant move.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin spot ETFs had a $650.80 million net outflow, reflecting waning institutional interest, which might propel additional price corrections. • US CPI releases and Federal Reserve rate expectations are influencing Bitcoin’s price, elevating market volatility and putting off a potential bullish breakout. • The correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has declined, with institutions going long on the precious metal due to regulation fears, volatility, and increasing fiat devaluation threats. • A clear break below $94,000 would precipitate a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 could be followed by a test of $106,012. Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, and declining institutional demand after spot ETFs experienced a $650.80 million net outflow. Macroeconomic tensions, such as above-predicted US CPI figures and Federal Reserve policy changes, are fueling market volatility. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold has declined, as institutions favor the precious metal because it remains stable amidst fiat devaluation fears. Technically, BTC is in a critical juncture—falling below $94,000 may move prices towards $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 may propel a rally towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Bitcoin is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000, as weakening institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainties put pressure on it. A break above $100,000 could instigate a rally, but a fall below $94,000 could lead to further falls. • BTC has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market indecision. • US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $650.80 million, reflecting diminishing institutional appetite and probable downside threats. • Increased US CPI figures and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions have boosted market uncertainty, influencing the price actions of Bitcoin. • BTC is trending more like a risk-on asset, with tighter correlation to the S&P 500 and a looser association with Gold. • Gold has surpassed Bitcoin in 2024 as institutional and sovereign wealth fund investment lifted its market capitalization. • RSI of 45 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate BTC could experience further corrections if it cannot break levels of resistance. • A price rise above $100,000 can trigger a rally to $106,012, while falling below $94,000 could see a plunge towards $90,000. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market uncertainty as institutional demand falters. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a large net outflow of $650.80 million, indicating decreased interest from institutional investors, which may cause further downward pressure. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, including increasing US CPI data and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions, have introduced volatility into the market. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a risk-on asset, with a higher correlation with the S&P 500 and decreasing correlation with Gold. Institutional investors still prefer Gold, which has gained $1.5 trillion in market capitalization this year, further diminishing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, as the traders wait for a break. Institutional appetite has slowed, as evident from the $650.80 million net Bitcoin spot ETF outflow, with fears of sustaining bearish pressure. Macroeconomic measures such as US inflation data and delay in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to affect BTC’s price movement. If Bitcoin surges above $100,000, it might recover its bullish trend and reach $106,012, but a fall below $94,000 can initiate a downfall towards $90,000. As long as market uncertainty lingers, traders need to pay close attention to important technical metrics and macroeconomic events for the next big move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical indicators of Bitcoin are bearish as it is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting slight bearish momentum after being pushed away from the middle-of-the-road 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also created a bearish crossover with red histogram bars pointing towards further possible corrections. A break below the critical support level of $94,000 by Bitcoin can lead to a fall towards the psychologically significant $90,000 level. On the other hand, a breakout above $100,000 would change momentum in the direction of the bulls, propelling BTC towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Traders will want to keep a close eye on volume and market sentiment for confirmation of the next large move. FORECAST If Bitcoin breaks above the top end of its current range of consolidation at $100,000, it might set off a bullish rally. A successful break with high buying volume would drive BTC towards its former high of $106,012, its last seen on January 31. Additional momentum might see a retest of higher resistance points at $110,000 as institutional and retail traders regain confidence. Macro economic influences, like a weaker US CPI report or a change in Federal Reserve policy in favor of rate cuts, would be the catalysts for Bitcoin’s upside. Moreover, increased adoption by sovereign players and ETFs holding more Bitcoin might lend long-term bullish support. In case Bitcoin does not hold above $94,000, bear pressure may gain strength to take it down towards the next psychological support level of $90,000. Deteriorating institutional appetite, as seen in the recent $650.80 million ETF outflows, might add to downside risks. Furthermore, if macroeconomic volatility continues—i.e., persistently high inflation, tardy Fed rate

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