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Bitcoin Stabilizes at $105,000 Resistance with Increasing Institutional Appetite and International Trade Hopes

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  • May 17, 2025
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Bitcoin is presently holding steady at around $103,000 after persistently probing the crucial $105,000 resistance level week after week. This uptrend is complemented by increasing institutional appetite, such as major corporate Bitcoin buying and continuous inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Hope for global trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs between the US, China, and the UK, and the softer US inflation data, have boosted risk-on attitudes in markets. Traders, however, need to exercise caution amid profit-taking cues from owners and market volatility initiated by the second round of repayments on the collapsed FTX exchange. Technical gauges indicate declining bullish pressure, emphasizing the chances of a pullback if Bitcoin is unable to break above resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin has not been able to close above this important level several times and thus is a significant hurdle to continued upside momentum. • Large-scale buys by companies such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise, as well as consistent spot ETF inflows, continue to underpin the bullish argument. • More recent tariff cuts and softer US CPI readings are fueling risk-on sentiment, which is likely to favor Bitcoin’s price action. • Rising realized profits among holders and bearish technicals like the RSI and MACD call for caution, as these may prompt a short-term pullback. Bitcoin’s immediate task is still to overcome the formidable resistance at $105,000, which has been tested a number of times but not broken. At the same time, increasing institutional and corporate demand, epitomized by massive Bitcoin buys and steady ETF inflows, is increasingly supporting its appeal as a strategic asset. Favorable news on world trade agreements and lower US inflation readings are also driving the risk-on tone that may underpin further advances. However, caution is warranted as profit-taking by holders and bearish technical indicators like the RSI and MACD signal the potential for a short-term pullback if the resistance holds. Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $105,000 resistance level amid strong institutional demand and positive global trade news. While risk-on sentiment supports potential gains, profit-taking and bearish technical signals suggest caution ahead. • Bitcoin price is range-bound at $103,000 following several biddings off the $105,000 resistance level. • Recent global trade agreements among the US, China, and UK have relaxed tariff tensions, lifting market sentiment. • Less-than-expected US inflation data has underpinned bets for future Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. • Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise are buying large sums of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. •  US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain experiencing solid inflows, indicative of increasing institutional appetite. •  Profit-taking by owners following recent price appreciation may enhance selling pressure and cause short-term correction. •  Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicating diminishing bullish momentum, recommending caution for investors. Bitcoin’s recent stability around the $103,000 level indicates increasing optimism fueled by favorable trends in international trade and rising institutional demand. Significant trade deals between the US, China, and the UK have reduced tariff tensions and increased risk asset confidence, including Bitcoin. Coupled with this, milder US inflation readings have strengthened expectations of cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the future, further incentivizing investors to look at assets with higher growth prospects. This favorable macroeconomic environment is driving steady demand for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also accelerating, with firms like Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise unveiling material accumulation plans to keep Bitcoin as a component of their treasury holdings. Furthermore, regulatory clarity is strengthening as nations like Ukraine consider legislation for a national Bitcoin reserve, indicating increasing sovereign interest. These trends, along with sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicate rising legitimacy and long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s place within diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin has faced stiff resistance at the $105,000 level, unable to cross it despite several attempts over the last week. Momentum indicators are also indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, with some important measures indicating that traders are beginning to take profits after gains. This has seen a consolidation period, with Bitcoin stabilizing just above $100,000. If the resistance at $105,000 holds firm, Bitcoin may experience a temporary pullback to probe support levels, so it is crucial to keep an eye on price action in the near term. FORECAST Bitcoin’s outlook is positive as increasing institutional demand and robust corporate accumulation are good bases for higher prices. Favorable global trade news and de-escalating tariff tensions are boosting overall market confidence that may cause additional inflows into Bitcoin. Also, constant interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs keeps fueling liquidity and legitimacy, which could create the way for a prolonged rally if Bitcoin can break through the crucial $105,000 resistance point. Fresh buying pressure at that juncture would drive prices upwards, drawing even more investors and strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve asset. Conversely, Bitcoin has issues that might prompt short-term falls. Profit-taking by owners following recent price increases could add selling pressure, particularly if the $105,000 resistance level is too powerful to breach. In addition, future volatility associated with the second round of repayments from the now-bankrupt FTX exchange can send the market into a tizzy. If Bitcoin cannot hold onto momentum and drops below key support around $100,000, it could come under additional pressure as risk-averse traders close out positions, potentially creating a potential retracement before any resumed uptrend.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation Ongoing Amid Fading Institutional Demand and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • February 15, 2025
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Bitcoin has consolidated between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, which is a period of indecision in the market. Institutional demand is fading, as seen through a $650.80 million net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Its correlation with the S&P 500 is still firm, but it has lost strength in correlation with Gold, as it is not a safe-haven asset but a risk-on asset. The macroeconomic backdrop, such as a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI report and Trump’s move to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, has introduced some volatility into the price action of BTC. Although technicals point to slightly bearish momentum, a conclusive breakout above $100,000 or below $94,000 might pave the way for Bitcoin’s next significant move.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin spot ETFs had a $650.80 million net outflow, reflecting waning institutional interest, which might propel additional price corrections. • US CPI releases and Federal Reserve rate expectations are influencing Bitcoin’s price, elevating market volatility and putting off a potential bullish breakout. • The correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has declined, with institutions going long on the precious metal due to regulation fears, volatility, and increasing fiat devaluation threats. • A clear break below $94,000 would precipitate a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 could be followed by a test of $106,012. Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, and declining institutional demand after spot ETFs experienced a $650.80 million net outflow. Macroeconomic tensions, such as above-predicted US CPI figures and Federal Reserve policy changes, are fueling market volatility. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold has declined, as institutions favor the precious metal because it remains stable amidst fiat devaluation fears. Technically, BTC is in a critical juncture—falling below $94,000 may move prices towards $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 may propel a rally towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Bitcoin is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000, as weakening institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainties put pressure on it. A break above $100,000 could instigate a rally, but a fall below $94,000 could lead to further falls. • BTC has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market indecision. • US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $650.80 million, reflecting diminishing institutional appetite and probable downside threats. • Increased US CPI figures and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions have boosted market uncertainty, influencing the price actions of Bitcoin. • BTC is trending more like a risk-on asset, with tighter correlation to the S&P 500 and a looser association with Gold. • Gold has surpassed Bitcoin in 2024 as institutional and sovereign wealth fund investment lifted its market capitalization. • RSI of 45 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate BTC could experience further corrections if it cannot break levels of resistance. • A price rise above $100,000 can trigger a rally to $106,012, while falling below $94,000 could see a plunge towards $90,000. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market uncertainty as institutional demand falters. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a large net outflow of $650.80 million, indicating decreased interest from institutional investors, which may cause further downward pressure. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, including increasing US CPI data and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions, have introduced volatility into the market. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a risk-on asset, with a higher correlation with the S&P 500 and decreasing correlation with Gold. Institutional investors still prefer Gold, which has gained $1.5 trillion in market capitalization this year, further diminishing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, as the traders wait for a break. Institutional appetite has slowed, as evident from the $650.80 million net Bitcoin spot ETF outflow, with fears of sustaining bearish pressure. Macroeconomic measures such as US inflation data and delay in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to affect BTC’s price movement. If Bitcoin surges above $100,000, it might recover its bullish trend and reach $106,012, but a fall below $94,000 can initiate a downfall towards $90,000. As long as market uncertainty lingers, traders need to pay close attention to important technical metrics and macroeconomic events for the next big move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical indicators of Bitcoin are bearish as it is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting slight bearish momentum after being pushed away from the middle-of-the-road 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also created a bearish crossover with red histogram bars pointing towards further possible corrections. A break below the critical support level of $94,000 by Bitcoin can lead to a fall towards the psychologically significant $90,000 level. On the other hand, a breakout above $100,000 would change momentum in the direction of the bulls, propelling BTC towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Traders will want to keep a close eye on volume and market sentiment for confirmation of the next large move. FORECAST If Bitcoin breaks above the top end of its current range of consolidation at $100,000, it might set off a bullish rally. A successful break with high buying volume would drive BTC towards its former high of $106,012, its last seen on January 31. Additional momentum might see a retest of higher resistance points at $110,000 as institutional and retail traders regain confidence. Macro economic influences, like a weaker US CPI report or a change in Federal Reserve policy in favor of rate cuts, would be the catalysts for Bitcoin’s upside. Moreover, increased adoption by sovereign players and ETFs holding more Bitcoin might lend long-term bullish support. In case Bitcoin does not hold above $94,000, bear pressure may gain strength to take it down towards the next psychological support level of $90,000. Deteriorating institutional appetite, as seen in the recent $650.80 million ETF outflows, might add to downside risks. Furthermore, if macroeconomic volatility continues—i.e., persistently high inflation, tardy Fed rate

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Bitcoin Braces for Volatility Amid Fed Interest Rate Decision and Nvidia Shockwaves

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  • January 29, 2025
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Bitcoin holds around $102,800 after a four-day sell-off as investors await the Fed interest rate decision, which might trigger volatility. Market sentiment is still cautious due to the fact that Nvidia stock has recently dived after the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI search technology firm, thereby spreading its shock waves across crypto markets and sending Bitcoin down 2.6%. Analysts suggest that a dovish Fed stance would favor Bitcoin, whereas a hawkish outlook could be positive for the U.S. dollar and risky assets would feel the pressure. Technical indicators give mixed signals, as RSI shows minor bullish momentum but MACD hints at a downtrend. If Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test the $90,000 support level, whereas a breakout can push it toward $109,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Federal Reserve’s interest rate stand could trigger the volatility of Bitcoin. A dovish stance can pump up the price of BTC, while a hawkish one might strengthen the US dollar and force crypto prices lower. • Bitcoin correlated more with U.S. equities when Nvidia fell by 17% following the increase of DeepSeek. The decline pushed BTC 2.6%. Market nerves remain elevated after the shock. • Bitcoin hovers around $102,800, with RSI signaling mild bullish momentum but MACD showing bearish signs. A drop below $100,000 could test $90,000, while resistance stands at $109,000. • CME futures premiums briefly turned negative, signaling professional traders’ caution. Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) saw net outflows, reflecting a de-risking trend amid broader economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s price remains at $102,800, facing potential volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The emergence of DeepSeek has created a sharp stock drop from Nvidia, bringing caution to the crypto market that has led to a 2.6% BTC decline. Technical indicators point in mixed signals as RSI shows mild bullish momentum while MACD hints of a downtrend. Market sentiment gets further shaken up by CME futures turning negative and significant outflows from Bitcoin ETPs. If BTC falls below $100,000, it could test the $90,000 support, or a breakout above could push it towards $109,000. Bitcoin is trading around $102,800 as it awaits the Fed’s interest rate decision. The stock drop of Nvidia and market caution have pressured BTC. Key levels include $90,000 support and $109,000 resistance. • Federal Reserve decision, upcoming could drive Bitcoin volatility, with dovish stance supporting BTC and hawkish tone strengthening the U.S. dollar. • Nvidia stock dropped 17% after the rise of DeepSeek, causing a 2.6% fall in Bitcoin, reflecting the increasing correlation of BTC with the U.S. equities. • RSI is showing a mild bullish momentum, while MACD is pointing towards a potential downtrend. • A breach below $100,000 could push BTC toward $90,000, or a good rally could surge it to $109,000. • CME futures briefly turned negative, indicating careful trading among professionals and reflecting a larger de-risking trend. • Bitcoin ETPs experienced net weekly inflows of 6,698 BTC but had significant outflow worth 6,900 BTC on Monday, which showed how uncertain the market was. • Trump’s push for lower interest rates could impact the Fed’s policy and, in turn, influence Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. Bitcoin’s price remains around $102,800, with market participants closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, which could trigger significant volatility. A dovish stance from the Fed might support Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish approach could put downward pressure on risky assets, including crypto. More recently, though, is the 17% stock drop by Nvidia due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has led to market volatility and dragged Bitcoin down by 2.6%. The correlation in BTC with U.S. equities continues to rise, which means that any crypto price action seems to be depending more on traditional financial market movements. BITCOIN Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, stock market trends, and institutional investor sentiment shaping its trajectory. The growing correlation between BTC and U.S. equities, as seen with Nvidia’s sharp drop impacting Bitcoin, highlights the broader financial market’s influence on crypto assets. Traders are also monitoring the Bitcoin ETPs’ liquidity trend, where outflows in the recent past are indicating a market that is somewhat cautious. On the other hand, the derivatives market, especially the CME futures, indicates professional traders de-risking ahead of the potential volatility. With these dynamics in place, Bitcoin’s short-term price movements will be influenced by external catalysts, technical strength, and market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s technical indicator picture is more mixed, at best. There may be both sides to the tale. The Relative Strength Index is reported at 55, bouncing off the neutral midpoint of 50. This tends to suggest slight uptick buying momentum. Nonetheless, the MACD recently formed a bearish crossover, suggesting downward momentum ahead. BTC has been probing its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $98,223. If this break lower is confirmed, it may well accelerate losses towards the next significant support area at $90,000. On the upside, if Bitcoin can stay above $102,000 and continues to build upward momentum, then it could head towards the $109,000 resistance area. With mixed signals from indicators and increasing volatility expected due to macroeconomic events, traders are cautious about the next move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin can stay above the $102,000 support level and gather momentum, a rally toward $109,000 is possible in the near term. A break above this resistance could trigger a stronger bullish move, potentially targeting $115,000 in the coming weeks. The RSI is above 50, and thus, mildly bullish momentum prevails, which shows that buyers are slowly starting to take over. A dovish Federal Reserve policy or a weak U.S. dollar might even add more pressure upwards, driving institutional investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. A boost in CME futures open interest and inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) would validate a bullish stance further. On the negative side, in case Bitcoin breaches below $100,000 and closes below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average

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