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Bitcoin Stays Above $116K as Fed’s Dovish Bias Ignites Bullish Tides

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  • September 20, 2025
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Bitcoin stays in its three-week rebound, trading above $116,000 as the dovish bias of the Federal Reserve ignites risk-on appetite in markets. The 25-bps rate cut by the Fed, combined with the anticipation of additional easing in 2025, has boosted investors’ confidence, favoring riskier assets such as BTC. Corporate and institutional appetite is strong, with more than $660 million having entered Bitcoin spot ETFs this week and significant corporate buys, such as Strategy’s purchase of 525 BTC. Although on-chain indicators reflect conflicting signs, with retail investors now leading the market, the technical outlook for Bitcoin implies a possible rally to the $120,000 psychological barrier if positive momentum holds. KEY LOOKOUTS • Be on the lookout for any indication of future rate cuts or monetary relaxation, as additional dovish steps may keep supporting BTC’s bullish trend. • Inflows of significant size into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate buying can greatly impact direction in terms of price. • All-important support at $116,000 and resistance around $120,000 will decide whether BTC continues its ascend or gets a correction. • Track whether the market still stays retail-dominated or if the whale action surges, which may cause price whipsaws in a hurry. Bitcoin is still holding firm above $116,000 thanks to the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies and robust institutional appetite. The latest 25-bps rate reduction, along with the anticipation of additional easing in 2025, has fueled risk appetite, which supports Bitcoin and other risky assets. Institutional flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled over $660 million this week, with corporate buy-ins such as Strategy’s addition of 525 BTC backing bullish sentiment. While on-chain metrics indicate mixed signals with retail currently driving market action, the technical indicators of Bitcoin point to a possible rally toward the $120,000 mark if momentum is sustained. Bitcoin remains firm above $116,000 as the Fed’s dovish bias boosts market sentiment. Firm institutional and company buying helps underpin bullish sentiment, with scope to challenge $120,000 if the trend maintains. Cautiously optimistic on-chain signals indicate trader sentiment. • Bitcoin continues its rebound, remaining above $116,000 following three weeks of successive rises. • The Federal Reserve 25-bps rate cut and dovish 2025 guidance underpin risk-on sentiment. • Institutional buying is high, with more than $660 million entering Bitcoin spot ETFs this week. • Corporate buy-ins, such as Strategy’s entry of 525 BTC, support positive market sentiment. • Mixed signals are coming from on-chain metrics, with retail investors now leading the market. • Primary technical levels: support at $116,000 and resistance around $120,000 for the next possible rally. • Market is still cautious, with surprise whale activity or corrections potentially altering the direction of BTC in the short term. Bitcoin remains robust on its momentum, trading above $116,000 as investor sentiment remains upbeat on the back of the Federal Reserve’s recent dovish policy. The Fed’s 25-bps rate cut and forecasts of further easing in 2025 have spurred risk-on activities in markets, favoring not just Bitcoin but other risk assets. Institutional and corporate players are more active, thereby adding much-needed credibility and support to the market. More than $660 million has poured in this week into Bitcoin spot ETFs, an indication of deepening confidence of large-scale investors. BITCOIN DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Corporate investment in Bitcoin is also strong, with firms such as Strategy and others increasing their holdings of BTC. Strategy alone deposited 525 BTC into its reserves this week, while other companies collectively bought nearly 89 BTC. Also, efforts like NEXT Technology’s SEC filing to raise $500 million, some of which will be used to buy Bitcoin, reflect further incorporation of digital assets into mainstream corporate planning. These are demonstrations of increasing institutional acceptance, again, betokening robust support foundations for Bitcoin within the wider financial landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is indicating bullish energy as it holds well above the $116,000 level of support. The 60 weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows increasing upward momentum, and the 59 daily RSI shows constant buying pressure. Bitcoin just broke above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a sign of ongoing strength, although the weekly MACD still indicates a residual bearish crossover in late August. If BTC maintains its current pace, it may challenge the psychological level around $120,000, while a decline below $116,000 could witness a pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $113,900. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to sustain the present momentum and institutional inflows persist, BTC may push towards the psychological mark of $120,000 in the short term. Successful break above the level may pave the way towards its all-time high of $124,474, backed by persisting risk-on sentiment and increasing corporate and institutional demand. Retail and institutional buying could continue to fuel bullish momentum. On the flip side, a breach of the $116,000 support level may initiate a pullback towards the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $113,900. Higher whale participation or unexpected market sell-offs might overwhelm selling pressure, which in turn might slow down BTC’s recovery. Traders should be vigilant, with confounding indicators from on-chain metrics putting forward that the market might be subject to near-term volatility in spite of the general bullish trend.

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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Suffers $1.15B ETF Outflows as Powell Speech Nears

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  • August 23, 2025
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Bitcoin (BTC) continued its correction this week, dropping more than 3% to hold above the important support of $111,980 as institutional demand slipped and profit-taking hardened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $1.15 billion in outflows—the biggest in five months—highlighting eroding momentum in the market. On-chain metrics also showed eroding demand and high futures open interest, indicating tenuous sentiment. A dovish Federal Reserve approach and lower rate-cut hopes contributed to downside pressure on risk assets. But corporate BTC buying, Hong Kong’s virtual asset trading launch, and geopolitical optimism provided some respite. Now, traders look for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for new hints on when Bitcoin will make its next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.15 billion in outflows, the biggest in five months, and that raised fears of more downside. • BTC is maintaining above $111,980 support; a break could lead to further correction, and a rally above $114,788 (50-day EMA) may incite rebound. • Market participants are looking for Jackson Hole Symposium comments for signals on upcoming interest rate policy and its influence on risk assets. • Weakening demand, profit-taking, and high open interest point to weak market conditions, but institutional buying at dips provides some hope. Bitcoin’s price correction intensified this week as profit-taking and declining institutional demand pulled the cryptocurrency below critical technical levels, albeit still ranging above $111,980 support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.15 billion worth of outflows, their largest in five months, which indicates diminishing momentum and puts further downside pressure in question. On-chain metrics also indicate cooling demand and high leverage, making the market susceptible to volatility. In the meantime, macroeconomic headwinds emanating from the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt have negatively impacted risk sentiment, with investors now eagerly looking out for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for more clues on the rate prospect and Bitcoin’s next potential move. Bitcoin is still under pressure this week, holding above $111,980 support after spot ETFs saw $1.15 billion in outflows, the largest in five months. Deteriorating demand, profit-taking, and hawkish Fed leaning increase the downside risk, with market players looking to Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole for new market signals. • Bitcoin fell more than 3% this week, holding above $111,980 crucial support. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.15 billion of outflows, the biggest in five months. • BTC has fallen close to 8% from the all-time peak of $124,747 on August 14. • Weak demand and increasing profit-taking are reflected in on-chain data. • Open interest in futures is still high at $67 billion, indicating vulnerable conditions. • A dovish Fed outlook and lower rate-cut expectations negatively influence risk assets. • Market participants look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address for future guidance. Bitcoin had a tough week as sentiment among investors deteriorated, with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds  experiencing more than $1.15 billion of outflow, the biggest in five months. This indicated weakening institutional appetite, as most investors took profits after the recent all-time highs of the cryptocurrency. Market focus also shifted towards wider macroeconomic trends, specifically the Federal Reserve’s dovish approach towards inflation and monetary policy, which has contributed to uncertainty among risk assets, including Bitcoin. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView There were rays of hope in the market despite the correction. Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and Strategy used the drop to increase their Bitcoin positions, indicating long-term faith. Moreover, CMB International Securities’ introduction of virtual asset trading in Hong Kong was a huge leap forward for mainstream acceptance, as it was the first Chinese bank-associated brokerage to get into the business. At the same time, geopolitical events, including possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, promised better risk sentiment, which would indirectly positively impact Bitcoin in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is finding its range just above its key support at $111,980 after falling close to 8% from its latest all-time peak. A bounce back above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of $114,788 would pave the way for a journey towards the resistance level at $116,000. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42, below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum. Unless the RSI is able to return above neutral, BTC will risk being in consolidation or facing additional downward pressure. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to maintain the $111,980 support price and build further momentum over its 50-day EMA level of $114,788, it may initiate a short-term rebound. A breakout above this region would be likely to prompt the buyers to drive BTC towards its next resistance level of $116,000, and if the uptrend momentum gains further strength, the price may test the $120,000 zone in the near future. Institutional dip-buying and favorable macro or geopolitical news may also serve as a catalyst for an upside move. Conversely, inability to hold the $111,980 support may intensify selling momentum and extend the correction. A drop below this key level might leave Bitcoin vulnerable to deeper falls towards $110,000 and even $108,500 if demand continues to erode. High futures open interest levels and diminishing institutional demand imply that even small declines are capable of unleashing sharper losses, particularly if Powell’s Jackson Hole speech indicates a more aggressive monetary policy trajectory.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Stabilizes Around $113,500 As Traders Wait for Fed Hints from FOMC Minutes

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  • August 20, 2025
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Bitcoin price stabilizes around $113,500 following a steep 4% slump earlier this week, with traders becoming cautious before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes. The fall comes after massive institutional outflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing more than $520 million flow out on Tuesday, indicating diminishing demand. Sentiment in the market remains weak, as above-anticipated U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) readings created inflationary fears, adding pressure to risk assets. With BTC below its 50-day EMA and exhibiting bearish technical indicators, the next Fed minutes might serve as a key catalyst, capable of inspiring fresh volatility in the world’s largest cryptocurrency. KEY LOOKOUTS • Participants are eagerly awaiting hints on the rate outlook of the Fed, which may fuel short-term volatility in Bitcoin. • Over $520 million left Bitcoin ETFs, indicating institutional investor demand waning. • BTC fell below its uptrend line and 50-day EMA, increasing the risk of lower prices. • The nearest support is around $111,980, and bearish momentum is supported by an RSI under 50 and a bearish MACD crossover. Bitcoin is hovering consistently at $113,500 following a recent 4% decline, as investors hold back for the release of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes for new policy cues. The decline follows weak institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording more than $520 million in outflows on Tuesday alone. Technically, BTC has fallen below its rising trendline and the 50-day EMA and is heading towards a possible downside risk at the $111,980 support zone. With bearish momentum shown in the RSI and MACD indicators, investors are preparing for increased volatility based on the Fed’s expectations regarding interest rates. Bitcoin trades close to $113,500 after a steep fall, with market participants looking for policy direction from the Fed’s FOMC minutes. Bearish technical indicators and institutional outflows impinge on sentiment, making BTC susceptible to further volatility on the downside. • Bitcoin price finds balance at $113,500 after falling 4% earlier this week. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs had more than $520 million of outflow on Tuesday, indicating weakening institutional demand. • BTC dipped below an uptrend line and the 50-day EMA ($114,910), generating bearish indicators. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, below neutral 50, showing bearish momentum. • MACD indicates a bearish crossover, corroborating the bear trend. • Support is seen near $111,980, while increased open interest increases the possibility of squeezes. • Market attention continues to be on the FOMC meeting minutes, which may trigger new volatility in BTC. Bitcoin is stabilizing around $113,500 as investors turn their focus to the next FOMC meeting minutes, which should give new signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy roadmap. The cryptocurrency market has been highly reactive to U.S. economic data and Fed communications, and investors are keenly observing if the policymakers will give any indication of an easing path or be conservative. The publication of the minutes later today may dictate market mood and induce fresh action across risk assets, including Bitcoin. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the other hand, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains indicative of weakness. Information points out that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced over $520 million in outflows on Tuesday, the third consecutive day of noticeable withdrawals. Analysts note that steady negative flows from institutional products have the tendency to erode market confidence, indicating that significant investors are still uncertain regarding near-term prospects. This change in demand patterns reflects the impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory expectations in the direction of Bitcoin’s market path. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin has fallen through its uptrend line and dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $114,910, indicating weakening price structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42 is below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also recently created a bearish crossover, reinforcing the bearish outlook. If there is continuing selling pressure, BTC may probe its next major support level around $111,980, while resistance is observed in the $114,900–$115,000 range. FORECAST If the FOMC meeting minutes confirm dovish guidance or suggest rate cuts in the future later this year, then Bitcoin may regain bullish momentum. A positive macro expectation should attract institutional inflows at the expense of the recent outflows from ETFs, fueling investors’ confidence. Under these circumstances, BTC may try to reclaim the $114,900–$115,000 resistance zone, and a sustained breach above this hurdle may set the path for further gains toward $117,500 and higher levels. Conversely, if the Fed minutes turn hawkish, confirming the sustainability of higher interest rates, then Bitcoin may face fresh selling pressure. Institutional redemptions coupled with waning market sentiment may pull prices down, challenging the near-term support at $111,980. A clear break below this level would trigger further downside towards the $110,000 psychological level, with more losses leaving BTC vulnerable to deeper correctives.

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Bitcoin Breaks Below $116K Support: Beginning of a Significant Correction or Just a Fakeout?

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  • August 3, 2025
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Bitcoin has broken below its key support level of $116,000, putting an end to a 16-day period of consolidation and leaving doubts about whether this is the beginning of a deeper correction or a brief fakeout. In the face of a solid macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve’s move to leave interest rates unchanged, BTC lost 3.4% this week. Traders currently wait for important data such as the US Nonfarm Payrolls for more indications. Meanwhile, encouraging news in the form of White House regulatory clarity, the SEC’s ETP approval, and the JPMorgan–Coinbase agreement can underpin long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term technicals being bearish. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe if BTC holds below $116,000 or recaptures it soon — this will decide if the move is a real breakdown or a fleeting fakeout. • Friday’s employment data may propel short-term volatility in BTC by affecting risk sentiment and expectations of interest rates. • RSI dipping below 50 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate downward pressure; a retest of the 50-day EMA near $112,951 should be expected. • White House crypto policy, SEC ETP decision, and the JPMorgan–Coinbase collaboration might provide support in the long term even if there is short-term skepticism. Bitcoin’s recent fall below $116,000 support level has put an end to 16 days of consolidation, raising concerns of a deeper correction in the midst of mixed macro and regulatory cues. Although the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged reflects a dovish economic approach, bearish technical signals such as RSI and MACD suggest increasing downside momentum. Yet long-term sentiment is cautiously upbeat with clearer regulatory guidance from the White House, the SEC approval of in-kind ETP transactions, and JPMorgan’s alliance with Coinbase suggesting heightened institutional adoption and infrastructure support for digital assets. Bitcoin has fallen beneath its 16-day range at $116,000, raising fears of a more substantial pullback. Bearish technical indications suggest further weakness, but regulatory clarity and institutionally-driven moves provide longer-term support. • Bitcoin fell below its lower consolidation line, ending a 16-day range and triggering potential bearish sentiment. • Price action indicates prudent sentiment even in the absence of significant adverse macroeconomic developments. • Interest rates are still 4.25%–4.50%, but no rumors about cuts put more pressure on risk assets such as BTC. • RSI falls below 50 and MACD indicates a sell-off, highlighting possible further downside. • Traders look forward to Friday’s US jobs report for new market guidance. • White House issues its initial crypto policy, calling for clarity and innovation in digital assets. • JPMorgan–Coinbase alliance and SEC’s reforms of ETPs indicate long-term bullish potential. The market environment for Bitcoin this week was as much dictated by regulatory and geopolitical events as by straightforward price action. A big step toward achieving clarity in the U.S. crypto regulatory environment was taken with the White House issuing its first virtual asset policy. The authoritative 160-page report also made suggestions on how to streamline regulation, foster innovation, and determine acceptable banking activities around stablecoins and tokenized assets. This action was deemed a positive development for long-term institutional investment and market sophistication, although the near-term market response was subdued. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Furthermore, the cooperation between JPMorgan and Coinbase is a sign of increased convergence between legacy finance and digital assets. With intentions to connect bank accounts directly with crypto wallets, the alliance underscores the continued mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, continuing global trade tensions — Trump’s recent announcement of drastic tariffs on primary imports among them — have added a degree of uncertainty, though markets have remained resilient. Taken together, these moves suggest a solidifying infrastructure for Bitcoin and other digital currencies, despite near-term volatility. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s recent fall below the support level of $116,000 indicates fading bullish momentum and a possible reversal towards a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen below the middle level of 50, signaling increasing selling pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has indicated a bearish crossover since July 23, supporting the downward trend. Further, the rising red histogram bars on MACD signal indicate that bearish momentum is growing. If the price keeps falling, a retest of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $112,951 may be the next support level to look out for a potential bounce or further fall. FORECAST If Bitcoin can retake the $116,000 level and get back into bullish mode, it might aim for a short-term rebound to $118,500 and even retest its recent all-time high at $123,218. Positive drivers in the form of ongoing institutional demand, supportive regulatory trends, and robust ETF demand might be the driver for this rally. A macro environment conducive to support, such as dovish Fedhawkish Fed signals or better-than-expected economic data, would also fuel renewed risk-taking in the crypto space and maintain supportive price action for BTC’s upside potential. Conversely, not holding current levels can see Bitcoin continue its pullback to the 50-day EMA at $112,951 or even lower support levels of about $110,000. Continuing bearish technical cues and eroding investor sentiment might make the correction deeper. Also, any disappointment in future macro reports such as the Nonfarm Payrolls or escalating geopolitical tensions—particularly trade tariff tensions—might deteriorate risk appetite, seeing higher selling pressure and plunging Bitcoin into an even more extended downtrend.

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Bitcoin Stabilizes at $105,000 Resistance with Increasing Institutional Appetite and International Trade Hopes

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  • May 17, 2025
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Bitcoin is presently holding steady at around $103,000 after persistently probing the crucial $105,000 resistance level week after week. This uptrend is complemented by increasing institutional appetite, such as major corporate Bitcoin buying and continuous inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Hope for global trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs between the US, China, and the UK, and the softer US inflation data, have boosted risk-on attitudes in markets. Traders, however, need to exercise caution amid profit-taking cues from owners and market volatility initiated by the second round of repayments on the collapsed FTX exchange. Technical gauges indicate declining bullish pressure, emphasizing the chances of a pullback if Bitcoin is unable to break above resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin has not been able to close above this important level several times and thus is a significant hurdle to continued upside momentum. • Large-scale buys by companies such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise, as well as consistent spot ETF inflows, continue to underpin the bullish argument. • More recent tariff cuts and softer US CPI readings are fueling risk-on sentiment, which is likely to favor Bitcoin’s price action. • Rising realized profits among holders and bearish technicals like the RSI and MACD call for caution, as these may prompt a short-term pullback. Bitcoin’s immediate task is still to overcome the formidable resistance at $105,000, which has been tested a number of times but not broken. At the same time, increasing institutional and corporate demand, epitomized by massive Bitcoin buys and steady ETF inflows, is increasingly supporting its appeal as a strategic asset. Favorable news on world trade agreements and lower US inflation readings are also driving the risk-on tone that may underpin further advances. However, caution is warranted as profit-taking by holders and bearish technical indicators like the RSI and MACD signal the potential for a short-term pullback if the resistance holds. Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $105,000 resistance level amid strong institutional demand and positive global trade news. While risk-on sentiment supports potential gains, profit-taking and bearish technical signals suggest caution ahead. • Bitcoin price is range-bound at $103,000 following several biddings off the $105,000 resistance level. • Recent global trade agreements among the US, China, and UK have relaxed tariff tensions, lifting market sentiment. • Less-than-expected US inflation data has underpinned bets for future Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. • Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise are buying large sums of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. •  US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain experiencing solid inflows, indicative of increasing institutional appetite. •  Profit-taking by owners following recent price appreciation may enhance selling pressure and cause short-term correction. •  Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicating diminishing bullish momentum, recommending caution for investors. Bitcoin’s recent stability around the $103,000 level indicates increasing optimism fueled by favorable trends in international trade and rising institutional demand. Significant trade deals between the US, China, and the UK have reduced tariff tensions and increased risk asset confidence, including Bitcoin. Coupled with this, milder US inflation readings have strengthened expectations of cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the future, further incentivizing investors to look at assets with higher growth prospects. This favorable macroeconomic environment is driving steady demand for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also accelerating, with firms like Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise unveiling material accumulation plans to keep Bitcoin as a component of their treasury holdings. Furthermore, regulatory clarity is strengthening as nations like Ukraine consider legislation for a national Bitcoin reserve, indicating increasing sovereign interest. These trends, along with sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicate rising legitimacy and long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s place within diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin has faced stiff resistance at the $105,000 level, unable to cross it despite several attempts over the last week. Momentum indicators are also indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, with some important measures indicating that traders are beginning to take profits after gains. This has seen a consolidation period, with Bitcoin stabilizing just above $100,000. If the resistance at $105,000 holds firm, Bitcoin may experience a temporary pullback to probe support levels, so it is crucial to keep an eye on price action in the near term. FORECAST Bitcoin’s outlook is positive as increasing institutional demand and robust corporate accumulation are good bases for higher prices. Favorable global trade news and de-escalating tariff tensions are boosting overall market confidence that may cause additional inflows into Bitcoin. Also, constant interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs keeps fueling liquidity and legitimacy, which could create the way for a prolonged rally if Bitcoin can break through the crucial $105,000 resistance point. Fresh buying pressure at that juncture would drive prices upwards, drawing even more investors and strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve asset. Conversely, Bitcoin has issues that might prompt short-term falls. Profit-taking by owners following recent price increases could add selling pressure, particularly if the $105,000 resistance level is too powerful to breach. In addition, future volatility associated with the second round of repayments from the now-bankrupt FTX exchange can send the market into a tizzy. If Bitcoin cannot hold onto momentum and drops below key support around $100,000, it could come under additional pressure as risk-averse traders close out positions, potentially creating a potential retracement before any resumed uptrend.

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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation Ongoing Amid Fading Institutional Demand and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • February 15, 2025
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Bitcoin has consolidated between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, which is a period of indecision in the market. Institutional demand is fading, as seen through a $650.80 million net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Its correlation with the S&P 500 is still firm, but it has lost strength in correlation with Gold, as it is not a safe-haven asset but a risk-on asset. The macroeconomic backdrop, such as a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI report and Trump’s move to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, has introduced some volatility into the price action of BTC. Although technicals point to slightly bearish momentum, a conclusive breakout above $100,000 or below $94,000 might pave the way for Bitcoin’s next significant move.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin spot ETFs had a $650.80 million net outflow, reflecting waning institutional interest, which might propel additional price corrections. • US CPI releases and Federal Reserve rate expectations are influencing Bitcoin’s price, elevating market volatility and putting off a potential bullish breakout. • The correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has declined, with institutions going long on the precious metal due to regulation fears, volatility, and increasing fiat devaluation threats. • A clear break below $94,000 would precipitate a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 could be followed by a test of $106,012. Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, and declining institutional demand after spot ETFs experienced a $650.80 million net outflow. Macroeconomic tensions, such as above-predicted US CPI figures and Federal Reserve policy changes, are fueling market volatility. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold has declined, as institutions favor the precious metal because it remains stable amidst fiat devaluation fears. Technically, BTC is in a critical juncture—falling below $94,000 may move prices towards $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 may propel a rally towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Bitcoin is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000, as weakening institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainties put pressure on it. A break above $100,000 could instigate a rally, but a fall below $94,000 could lead to further falls. • BTC has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market indecision. • US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $650.80 million, reflecting diminishing institutional appetite and probable downside threats. • Increased US CPI figures and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions have boosted market uncertainty, influencing the price actions of Bitcoin. • BTC is trending more like a risk-on asset, with tighter correlation to the S&P 500 and a looser association with Gold. • Gold has surpassed Bitcoin in 2024 as institutional and sovereign wealth fund investment lifted its market capitalization. • RSI of 45 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate BTC could experience further corrections if it cannot break levels of resistance. • A price rise above $100,000 can trigger a rally to $106,012, while falling below $94,000 could see a plunge towards $90,000. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market uncertainty as institutional demand falters. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a large net outflow of $650.80 million, indicating decreased interest from institutional investors, which may cause further downward pressure. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, including increasing US CPI data and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions, have introduced volatility into the market. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a risk-on asset, with a higher correlation with the S&P 500 and decreasing correlation with Gold. Institutional investors still prefer Gold, which has gained $1.5 trillion in market capitalization this year, further diminishing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, as the traders wait for a break. Institutional appetite has slowed, as evident from the $650.80 million net Bitcoin spot ETF outflow, with fears of sustaining bearish pressure. Macroeconomic measures such as US inflation data and delay in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to affect BTC’s price movement. If Bitcoin surges above $100,000, it might recover its bullish trend and reach $106,012, but a fall below $94,000 can initiate a downfall towards $90,000. As long as market uncertainty lingers, traders need to pay close attention to important technical metrics and macroeconomic events for the next big move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical indicators of Bitcoin are bearish as it is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting slight bearish momentum after being pushed away from the middle-of-the-road 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also created a bearish crossover with red histogram bars pointing towards further possible corrections. A break below the critical support level of $94,000 by Bitcoin can lead to a fall towards the psychologically significant $90,000 level. On the other hand, a breakout above $100,000 would change momentum in the direction of the bulls, propelling BTC towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Traders will want to keep a close eye on volume and market sentiment for confirmation of the next large move. FORECAST If Bitcoin breaks above the top end of its current range of consolidation at $100,000, it might set off a bullish rally. A successful break with high buying volume would drive BTC towards its former high of $106,012, its last seen on January 31. Additional momentum might see a retest of higher resistance points at $110,000 as institutional and retail traders regain confidence. Macro economic influences, like a weaker US CPI report or a change in Federal Reserve policy in favor of rate cuts, would be the catalysts for Bitcoin’s upside. Moreover, increased adoption by sovereign players and ETFs holding more Bitcoin might lend long-term bullish support. In case Bitcoin does not hold above $94,000, bear pressure may gain strength to take it down towards the next psychological support level of $90,000. Deteriorating institutional appetite, as seen in the recent $650.80 million ETF outflows, might add to downside risks. Furthermore, if macroeconomic volatility continues—i.e., persistently high inflation, tardy Fed rate

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Bitcoin Braces for Volatility Amid Fed Interest Rate Decision and Nvidia Shockwaves

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  • January 29, 2025
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Bitcoin holds around $102,800 after a four-day sell-off as investors await the Fed interest rate decision, which might trigger volatility. Market sentiment is still cautious due to the fact that Nvidia stock has recently dived after the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI search technology firm, thereby spreading its shock waves across crypto markets and sending Bitcoin down 2.6%. Analysts suggest that a dovish Fed stance would favor Bitcoin, whereas a hawkish outlook could be positive for the U.S. dollar and risky assets would feel the pressure. Technical indicators give mixed signals, as RSI shows minor bullish momentum but MACD hints at a downtrend. If Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test the $90,000 support level, whereas a breakout can push it toward $109,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Federal Reserve’s interest rate stand could trigger the volatility of Bitcoin. A dovish stance can pump up the price of BTC, while a hawkish one might strengthen the US dollar and force crypto prices lower. • Bitcoin correlated more with U.S. equities when Nvidia fell by 17% following the increase of DeepSeek. The decline pushed BTC 2.6%. Market nerves remain elevated after the shock. • Bitcoin hovers around $102,800, with RSI signaling mild bullish momentum but MACD showing bearish signs. A drop below $100,000 could test $90,000, while resistance stands at $109,000. • CME futures premiums briefly turned negative, signaling professional traders’ caution. Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) saw net outflows, reflecting a de-risking trend amid broader economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s price remains at $102,800, facing potential volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The emergence of DeepSeek has created a sharp stock drop from Nvidia, bringing caution to the crypto market that has led to a 2.6% BTC decline. Technical indicators point in mixed signals as RSI shows mild bullish momentum while MACD hints of a downtrend. Market sentiment gets further shaken up by CME futures turning negative and significant outflows from Bitcoin ETPs. If BTC falls below $100,000, it could test the $90,000 support, or a breakout above could push it towards $109,000. Bitcoin is trading around $102,800 as it awaits the Fed’s interest rate decision. The stock drop of Nvidia and market caution have pressured BTC. Key levels include $90,000 support and $109,000 resistance. • Federal Reserve decision, upcoming could drive Bitcoin volatility, with dovish stance supporting BTC and hawkish tone strengthening the U.S. dollar. • Nvidia stock dropped 17% after the rise of DeepSeek, causing a 2.6% fall in Bitcoin, reflecting the increasing correlation of BTC with the U.S. equities. • RSI is showing a mild bullish momentum, while MACD is pointing towards a potential downtrend. • A breach below $100,000 could push BTC toward $90,000, or a good rally could surge it to $109,000. • CME futures briefly turned negative, indicating careful trading among professionals and reflecting a larger de-risking trend. • Bitcoin ETPs experienced net weekly inflows of 6,698 BTC but had significant outflow worth 6,900 BTC on Monday, which showed how uncertain the market was. • Trump’s push for lower interest rates could impact the Fed’s policy and, in turn, influence Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. Bitcoin’s price remains around $102,800, with market participants closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, which could trigger significant volatility. A dovish stance from the Fed might support Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish approach could put downward pressure on risky assets, including crypto. More recently, though, is the 17% stock drop by Nvidia due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has led to market volatility and dragged Bitcoin down by 2.6%. The correlation in BTC with U.S. equities continues to rise, which means that any crypto price action seems to be depending more on traditional financial market movements. BITCOIN Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, stock market trends, and institutional investor sentiment shaping its trajectory. The growing correlation between BTC and U.S. equities, as seen with Nvidia’s sharp drop impacting Bitcoin, highlights the broader financial market’s influence on crypto assets. Traders are also monitoring the Bitcoin ETPs’ liquidity trend, where outflows in the recent past are indicating a market that is somewhat cautious. On the other hand, the derivatives market, especially the CME futures, indicates professional traders de-risking ahead of the potential volatility. With these dynamics in place, Bitcoin’s short-term price movements will be influenced by external catalysts, technical strength, and market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s technical indicator picture is more mixed, at best. There may be both sides to the tale. The Relative Strength Index is reported at 55, bouncing off the neutral midpoint of 50. This tends to suggest slight uptick buying momentum. Nonetheless, the MACD recently formed a bearish crossover, suggesting downward momentum ahead. BTC has been probing its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $98,223. If this break lower is confirmed, it may well accelerate losses towards the next significant support area at $90,000. On the upside, if Bitcoin can stay above $102,000 and continues to build upward momentum, then it could head towards the $109,000 resistance area. With mixed signals from indicators and increasing volatility expected due to macroeconomic events, traders are cautious about the next move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin can stay above the $102,000 support level and gather momentum, a rally toward $109,000 is possible in the near term. A break above this resistance could trigger a stronger bullish move, potentially targeting $115,000 in the coming weeks. The RSI is above 50, and thus, mildly bullish momentum prevails, which shows that buyers are slowly starting to take over. A dovish Federal Reserve policy or a weak U.S. dollar might even add more pressure upwards, driving institutional investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. A boost in CME futures open interest and inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) would validate a bullish stance further. On the negative side, in case Bitcoin breaches below $100,000 and closes below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average

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