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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Slides to $109K as Record Liquidations, Fed Caution, and Geopolitical Risks Pressure Markets

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  • September 27, 2025
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Bitcoin fell nearly 5% this week, trading around $109,000 on Friday, as massive liquidations rocked the crypto market and risk sentiment soured. The market witnessed its largest single-day liquidation of the year, wiping out over $1.6 billion in long positions, while another round of sell-offs added further pressure. A dovish Federal Reserve attitude toward rate cuts, increasing geopolitical tensions, softening institutional demand, and the historical “September effect” bore down on Bitcoin’s prospects. While corporate purchasing and future US regulatory talks provide some hope, technical factors indicate bear momentum may take losses into important support points at around $107,000 and $104,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • More than $1.65 billion in long positions were liquidated this week, sparking new sell-offs and exposing excessive bullish leverage. • Powell’s caution against aggressive rate cuts has bolstered the US Dollar and pinched risk assets such as Bitcoin. • Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $484 million in outflows, ending a four-week positive inflow streak and indicating weaker institutional demand. • BTC can go further south to $107,000 and even $104,000 should bear pressure persist. Bitcoin struggled last week, declining close to 5% to move at around $109,000 as the crypto sector experienced its largest liquidation of the year. More than $1.6 billion in longs was liquidated, triggering further sell-offs in the face of cautionary Federal Reserve policies and increasing geopolitical tensions that drove risk-off sentiment. Institutional redemptions from Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to dampen demand, while the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 28, showing increasing investor conservatism. While corporate buying and future US regulatory talks offer hope, technicals suggest continuing bearish pressure with the risk of a larger correction toward key support areas. Bitcoin declined close to 5% this week to approximately $109,000, weighed by record liquidations and softening institutional appetite. A hawkish Fed bias and geopolitical tensions spurred risk-off sentiment, while technicals indicate further weakness towards key support. • Bitcoin declined close to 5% this week, trading at approximately $109,000 on Friday. • The crypto market experienced its biggest single-day liquidation of 2025, erasing $1.65 billion in long positions. • Further sell-offs towards the end of the week caused further $1.09 billion in liquidations. • The slow hand of the Fed on rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions added to risk-off sentiment. • Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $484 million in outflows, ending a four-week inflow streak. • Institutional buyers such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Capital B stockpiled BTC in their treasuries, offering some comfort. • Technical indicators (MACD, RSI) reflect bearish momentum with possible falls towards $107,000 and $104,000 levels of support. Bitcoin experienced a volatile week as the crypto market saw its biggest single-day liquidation event of the year, erasing billions in long positions. The steep decline reflected excessive bullish leverage by traders and prompted general caution throughout the market. The dovish note from the Federal Reserve on imminent rate cuts, combined with rising geopolitical tensions, had a strong impact on investor morale and encouraged risk-off sentiment in the financial markets. At the same time, the “September effect” of a traditionally slow month for Bitcoin remained in the air, contributing to bearish sentiment. BITCOIN Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView Institutional flows were also noteworthy, with Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing $484 million in outflows that put an end to four weeks of positive inflows and signalling fear of declining institutional demand. But not all indicators were negative—company buyers like MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Capital B continued to build their position in Bitcoin, highlighting long-term faith in the asset. Also, the forthcoming US Senate Finance Committee hearing about taxation of digital assets should serve to offer further regulatory insight, potentially paving the way for wider use in the long run. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin exhibits clear symptoms of declining momentum after being unable to remain above $116,000 during the initial part of the month. On the weekly chart, RSI has fallen towards the middle 50 level, indicating waning bull power, while MACD is in a bearish crossover with red histogram bars extending downwards. On the daily chart, BTC is below the 50-day EMA and has fallen below a significant ascending trendline, pointing to higher downside risk. If downward pressure continues, Bitcoin may retest key levels of support at $107,000 and possibly $104,000, with technicals suggesting prolonged bearish forces in the short term. FORECAST Conversely, if Bitcoin can stay above the $107,000 support level, it may be the focus of dip-buying by both retail and institutional investors. Healthy corporate accumulation, including recent buying from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, could act as a cushion for further losses. Moreover, prospective regulatory conversations in the US, most notably the Senate Finance Committee’s hearing on taxing digital assets, may provide much-needed clarity and reignite hope within the market. A bounce back above the 50-day EMA would make way for BTC to test resistance zones around $113,000 and, in the process, $118,000 in the near term. Conversely, if selling pressure persists and Bitcoin convincingly moves below $107,000, additional downside may be initiated, with the subsequent support at around $104,000. The convergence of diminishing institutional appetite, continued ETF outflows, and defensive macroeconomic conditions driven by the Fed’s approach can strengthen bearish mood. Increasing geopolitical risks may also continue to place risk assets under pressure, driving BTC southwards. In this scenario, Bitcoin might witness prolonged consolidation or even a steep fall before discovering its next solid support level.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Sinks Below $110K Following $1.8 Billion Liquidations

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  • August 30, 2025
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Bitcoin continued to fall this week, dipping more than 10% below its August high of $124,474 and below $110,000 on the back of $1.8 billion in market-wide liquidations, the majority of which were from long positions. Even in light of dovish remarks by Fed Chair Powell and consistent institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, market sentiment remains weak as spot demand offsets and futures remain bearish-leaning. Corporate demand, such as new BTC buys from treasury companies, gives some respite, but technicals indicate fading momentum, prompting traders to be wary before September’s critical macroeconomic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. KEY LOOKOUTS • BTC below $110,000 with major supports at $108,600 and $104,400; a close below may initiate greater losses. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than $567 million inflows this week, a bullish sign that can aid recovery if maintained. • Coming US core PCE inflation data and the Fed meeting in September have the potential to trigger volatility and dictate BTC’s direction. • Neutral spot demand vs. bearish perpetual futures indicate risk-averse trader attitudes and latent short-term downward risk. Bitcoin struggled to maintain ground this week, falling to below $110,000 after a sharp correction of over 10% from its record mid-August high. The sell-off prompted more than $1.8 billion in liquidations, the lion’s share being from long positions, highlighting excessively bullish market leverage. Although dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell and fresh institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs provided some relief, spot demand has switched to a neutral bias and sentiment in futures is weak. As technical indicators signal diminishing momentum, the near-term fate of BTC relies on critical macroeconomic data and if buyers intervene to support critical support levels. Bitcoin is still in the bearish trap after it had fallen more than 10% from its all-time high, declining below $110,000 on the backdrop of $1.8 billion liquidations. Even with ETF flows and institutional buying, market sentiment remains weak as investors wait for key US inflation figures and Fed policy signals. • Bitcoin dropped more than 10% from its all-time high of $124,474, trading below $110,000 this week. • The crypto market witnessed $1.8 billion in liquidations, where 74% were from long positions. • Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments did not prop up BTC, as bearish pressure continued. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs had $567 million of inflows, indicating renewed interest from institutions. • Institutional buyers such as Metaplanet and Strategy purchased 3,184 BTC, riding down price movements. • Technical indicators indicate decreasing momentum, with RSI moving lower and MACD indicating a bearish crossover. • The next significant move for BTC may be powered by key events in the near future—US core PCE inflation figures and the Fed meeting in September. Bitcoin struggled through a week as the crypto sector digested more than $1.8 billion in liquidations, predominantly among long positions, exposing the dangers of over-leveraged trading. Institutional and corporate investors remained strong despite the sell-down, and Bitcoin spot ETFs posted inflows exceeding $567 million after a week of catastrophic outflows. Other corporate treasuries, including Metaplanet and Strategy, also seized the opportunity, accumulating thousands of BTC to their total, reaffirming faith in the asset’s long-term value. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Aside from market movement, the presence of Bitcoin globally continues to grow. The Hong Kong Bitcoin Asia conference, the second-largest cryptocurrency conference worldwide, reflected the increasing dominance of BTC in the Asian market. At the same time, Donald Trump’s sons-backed American Bitcoin is set to list on the Nasdaq via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, an initiative which can further solidify Bitcoin’s acceptance into the mainstream. These moves speak to Bitcoin’s durability and the constant inclusion of digital assets in both institutional investment portfolios and the world’s financial markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin displays weakening momentum after three consecutive weeks of losses since its all-time high of $124,474 in mid-August. The price fell below its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of $110,849, increasing the danger of sliding further towards the 200-day EMA level around $103,974 if selling continues. Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 39, indicating strong bearish momentum, but the weekly RSI has moved slightly towards neutral, indicating waning bullish strength. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also indicating a bearish crossover, suggesting potential for an early downtrend to develop unless BTC recovers past resistance of $116,000. FORECAST If Bitcoin can resist falling below the $110,000 level and continue to receive institutional inflows into spot ETFs, the recovery could stretch towards near-term resistance levels around $116,000. Institutional buying including corporate treasury buying, combined with more robust global adoption indicators like the impending Nasdaq listing of American Bitcoin, can further fuel sentiment. Alternatively, a dovish result from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting or declining US inflation numbers would also offer upside support, enabling BTC to recover lost ground and potentially stabilize above critical levels. Alternatively, unable to maintain above the 100-day EMA of $110,849 and successive selling pressure may see Bitcoin lower towards its next area of support at $104,400, with ongoing risk of testing the 200-day EMA at around $103,974. Bearish futures sentiment and declining spot demand mean that buyers are still apprehensive, making BTC susceptible to deeper corrections if macroeconomic reports surprise to the upside and move the US dollar higher. In this case, traders can expect extended consolidation or further declines before Bitcoin tries to recover again.

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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Suffers $1.15B ETF Outflows as Powell Speech Nears

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  • August 23, 2025
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Bitcoin (BTC) continued its correction this week, dropping more than 3% to hold above the important support of $111,980 as institutional demand slipped and profit-taking hardened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $1.15 billion in outflows—the biggest in five months—highlighting eroding momentum in the market. On-chain metrics also showed eroding demand and high futures open interest, indicating tenuous sentiment. A dovish Federal Reserve approach and lower rate-cut hopes contributed to downside pressure on risk assets. But corporate BTC buying, Hong Kong’s virtual asset trading launch, and geopolitical optimism provided some respite. Now, traders look for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for new hints on when Bitcoin will make its next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.15 billion in outflows, the biggest in five months, and that raised fears of more downside. • BTC is maintaining above $111,980 support; a break could lead to further correction, and a rally above $114,788 (50-day EMA) may incite rebound. • Market participants are looking for Jackson Hole Symposium comments for signals on upcoming interest rate policy and its influence on risk assets. • Weakening demand, profit-taking, and high open interest point to weak market conditions, but institutional buying at dips provides some hope. Bitcoin’s price correction intensified this week as profit-taking and declining institutional demand pulled the cryptocurrency below critical technical levels, albeit still ranging above $111,980 support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.15 billion worth of outflows, their largest in five months, which indicates diminishing momentum and puts further downside pressure in question. On-chain metrics also indicate cooling demand and high leverage, making the market susceptible to volatility. In the meantime, macroeconomic headwinds emanating from the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt have negatively impacted risk sentiment, with investors now eagerly looking out for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for more clues on the rate prospect and Bitcoin’s next potential move. Bitcoin is still under pressure this week, holding above $111,980 support after spot ETFs saw $1.15 billion in outflows, the largest in five months. Deteriorating demand, profit-taking, and hawkish Fed leaning increase the downside risk, with market players looking to Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole for new market signals. • Bitcoin fell more than 3% this week, holding above $111,980 crucial support. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.15 billion of outflows, the biggest in five months. • BTC has fallen close to 8% from the all-time peak of $124,747 on August 14. • Weak demand and increasing profit-taking are reflected in on-chain data. • Open interest in futures is still high at $67 billion, indicating vulnerable conditions. • A dovish Fed outlook and lower rate-cut expectations negatively influence risk assets. • Market participants look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address for future guidance. Bitcoin had a tough week as sentiment among investors deteriorated, with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds  experiencing more than $1.15 billion of outflow, the biggest in five months. This indicated weakening institutional appetite, as most investors took profits after the recent all-time highs of the cryptocurrency. Market focus also shifted towards wider macroeconomic trends, specifically the Federal Reserve’s dovish approach towards inflation and monetary policy, which has contributed to uncertainty among risk assets, including Bitcoin. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView There were rays of hope in the market despite the correction. Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and Strategy used the drop to increase their Bitcoin positions, indicating long-term faith. Moreover, CMB International Securities’ introduction of virtual asset trading in Hong Kong was a huge leap forward for mainstream acceptance, as it was the first Chinese bank-associated brokerage to get into the business. At the same time, geopolitical events, including possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, promised better risk sentiment, which would indirectly positively impact Bitcoin in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is finding its range just above its key support at $111,980 after falling close to 8% from its latest all-time peak. A bounce back above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of $114,788 would pave the way for a journey towards the resistance level at $116,000. But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42, below the neutral 50 level, indicating bearish momentum. Unless the RSI is able to return above neutral, BTC will risk being in consolidation or facing additional downward pressure. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to maintain the $111,980 support price and build further momentum over its 50-day EMA level of $114,788, it may initiate a short-term rebound. A breakout above this region would be likely to prompt the buyers to drive BTC towards its next resistance level of $116,000, and if the uptrend momentum gains further strength, the price may test the $120,000 zone in the near future. Institutional dip-buying and favorable macro or geopolitical news may also serve as a catalyst for an upside move. Conversely, inability to hold the $111,980 support may intensify selling momentum and extend the correction. A drop below this key level might leave Bitcoin vulnerable to deeper falls towards $110,000 and even $108,500 if demand continues to erode. High futures open interest levels and diminishing institutional demand imply that even small declines are capable of unleashing sharper losses, particularly if Powell’s Jackson Hole speech indicates a more aggressive monetary policy trajectory.

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Bitcoin Breaks Below $116K Support: Beginning of a Significant Correction or Just a Fakeout?

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  • August 3, 2025
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Bitcoin has broken below its key support level of $116,000, putting an end to a 16-day period of consolidation and leaving doubts about whether this is the beginning of a deeper correction or a brief fakeout. In the face of a solid macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve’s move to leave interest rates unchanged, BTC lost 3.4% this week. Traders currently wait for important data such as the US Nonfarm Payrolls for more indications. Meanwhile, encouraging news in the form of White House regulatory clarity, the SEC’s ETP approval, and the JPMorgan–Coinbase agreement can underpin long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term technicals being bearish. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe if BTC holds below $116,000 or recaptures it soon — this will decide if the move is a real breakdown or a fleeting fakeout. • Friday’s employment data may propel short-term volatility in BTC by affecting risk sentiment and expectations of interest rates. • RSI dipping below 50 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate downward pressure; a retest of the 50-day EMA near $112,951 should be expected. • White House crypto policy, SEC ETP decision, and the JPMorgan–Coinbase collaboration might provide support in the long term even if there is short-term skepticism. Bitcoin’s recent fall below $116,000 support level has put an end to 16 days of consolidation, raising concerns of a deeper correction in the midst of mixed macro and regulatory cues. Although the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged reflects a dovish economic approach, bearish technical signals such as RSI and MACD suggest increasing downside momentum. Yet long-term sentiment is cautiously upbeat with clearer regulatory guidance from the White House, the SEC approval of in-kind ETP transactions, and JPMorgan’s alliance with Coinbase suggesting heightened institutional adoption and infrastructure support for digital assets. Bitcoin has fallen beneath its 16-day range at $116,000, raising fears of a more substantial pullback. Bearish technical indications suggest further weakness, but regulatory clarity and institutionally-driven moves provide longer-term support. • Bitcoin fell below its lower consolidation line, ending a 16-day range and triggering potential bearish sentiment. • Price action indicates prudent sentiment even in the absence of significant adverse macroeconomic developments. • Interest rates are still 4.25%–4.50%, but no rumors about cuts put more pressure on risk assets such as BTC. • RSI falls below 50 and MACD indicates a sell-off, highlighting possible further downside. • Traders look forward to Friday’s US jobs report for new market guidance. • White House issues its initial crypto policy, calling for clarity and innovation in digital assets. • JPMorgan–Coinbase alliance and SEC’s reforms of ETPs indicate long-term bullish potential. The market environment for Bitcoin this week was as much dictated by regulatory and geopolitical events as by straightforward price action. A big step toward achieving clarity in the U.S. crypto regulatory environment was taken with the White House issuing its first virtual asset policy. The authoritative 160-page report also made suggestions on how to streamline regulation, foster innovation, and determine acceptable banking activities around stablecoins and tokenized assets. This action was deemed a positive development for long-term institutional investment and market sophistication, although the near-term market response was subdued. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Furthermore, the cooperation between JPMorgan and Coinbase is a sign of increased convergence between legacy finance and digital assets. With intentions to connect bank accounts directly with crypto wallets, the alliance underscores the continued mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. At the same time, continuing global trade tensions — Trump’s recent announcement of drastic tariffs on primary imports among them — have added a degree of uncertainty, though markets have remained resilient. Taken together, these moves suggest a solidifying infrastructure for Bitcoin and other digital currencies, despite near-term volatility. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s recent fall below the support level of $116,000 indicates fading bullish momentum and a possible reversal towards a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen below the middle level of 50, signaling increasing selling pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has indicated a bearish crossover since July 23, supporting the downward trend. Further, the rising red histogram bars on MACD signal indicate that bearish momentum is growing. If the price keeps falling, a retest of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $112,951 may be the next support level to look out for a potential bounce or further fall. FORECAST If Bitcoin can retake the $116,000 level and get back into bullish mode, it might aim for a short-term rebound to $118,500 and even retest its recent all-time high at $123,218. Positive drivers in the form of ongoing institutional demand, supportive regulatory trends, and robust ETF demand might be the driver for this rally. A macro environment conducive to support, such as dovish Fedhawkish Fed signals or better-than-expected economic data, would also fuel renewed risk-taking in the crypto space and maintain supportive price action for BTC’s upside potential. Conversely, not holding current levels can see Bitcoin continue its pullback to the 50-day EMA at $112,951 or even lower support levels of about $110,000. Continuing bearish technical cues and eroding investor sentiment might make the correction deeper. Also, any disappointment in future macro reports such as the Nonfarm Payrolls or escalating geopolitical tensions—particularly trade tariff tensions—might deteriorate risk appetite, seeing higher selling pressure and plunging Bitcoin into an even more extended downtrend.

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Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds Steady Amid ETF Inflows and Looming Macro Triggers

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  • July 30, 2025
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Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $116,000 and $120,000, reflecting market indecision ahead of several key macroeconomic events. Despite recent selling pressure, including a massive 80,000 BTC OTC sale by Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, supported by consistent institutional demand and inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $157.02 million on Monday alone. But with key US employment, GDP, interest rate, and tariff announcements due this week, volatility in markets may rise sharply. Traders are nervous as technical charts point to declining momentum, and the SEC’s hesitation in deciding on ETFs makes the near-term outlook even more uncertain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Future US employment data, GDP announcement, Fed interest rate move, and tariff deadline might lead to sudden price fluctuations in Bitcoin. • Further positive inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $157.02 million injected on Monday, reflect increased institutional demand in the face of market consolidation. • A fall below $116,000 is likely to see a decline towards the 50-day EMA at $112,526, while a close above $120,000 on the daily chart is likely to see a move towards the all-time high of $123,218. • The US SEC has delayed decisions on the Truth Social BTC ETF and other altcoin-focused ETFs, prolonging uncertainty but possibly setting up future bullish catalysts. Bitcoin is still trading in a tight range of $116,000 to $120,000, marking a period of consolidation as traders wait for major macroeconomic events that will inject substantial volatility into the market. In spite of a large recent OTC sale by Galaxy Digital of 80,000 BTC, the price has exhibited impressive resilience underpinned by robust institutional buying and steady inflows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. While this is indicative of underlying bullishness, caution still dominates as pending announcements including the Fed rate decision, US GDP data, and tariff deadlines hang over markets and have the potential to induce sudden market responses in either direction. Bitcoin holds range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 while investors wait for key US economic announcements. Firm ETF inflows and institutional demand support it, but volatility will increase with the pending macro events. • Bitcoin is range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 after reaching an all-time high at $123,218 on July 14. • ETF flows continue to be firm, with US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $157.02 million of net inflows on Monday. • BTC remains resilient despite a gargantuan 80,000 BTC OTC sale from Galaxy Digital, underpinned by ongoing institutional buying. • Volatility remains at annual lows but is poised to increase amidst pending US economic releases and policy announcements. • Notable macro events for this week are US employment releases, GDP data, Fed interest rate announcement, and Trump tariff deadline. • Technical indicators flash caution – RSI points downward and MACD shows a bearish crossover. • The SEC delays ETF decisions, including Truth Social’s Bitcoin ETF, adding short-term uncertainty but long-term bullish potential. Bitcoin’s price action over the past two weeks has remained steady within a defined range, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. In spite of wider volatility, investor attitude seems to be gaining traction, reflected in steady inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs saw a significant $157.02 million in inflows on Monday alone, the third day running of net positive flows. Institutional buying and treasury vehicle accumulation still provide support to Bitcoin, cushioning it against macro sell-offs, as was seen in the latest 80,000 BTC OTC trade by Galaxy Digital. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The overall market is gearing up for a week that is going to see major macroeconomic events that could drive sentiment and investor action across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Those announcements of US jobs, GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve interest rate choice are likely to define investor expectations. In the meantime, the SEC postponement to approve a number of crypto-related ETFs, such as the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, reflects the continued regulatory uncertainty but also implies increasing institutional focus on digital assets. As Bitcoin remains to attract both institutional and retail attention, the interest is on how outside economic and policy conditions will influence its next directional direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is trading in a period of consolidation between $116,000 and $120,000, with indicators exhibiting weakened bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 58 on the daily chart—still above middle but falling—indicating diminishing buying pressure. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has demonstrated a bearish crossover, which could signal short-term downfall. If Bitcoin drops below the $116,000 support level on a daily close basis, it might engender a fall down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $112,526. On the other hand, a strong push higher above $120,000 might recalculate the route to retesting the recent all-time high of $123,218. FORECAST If Bitcoin can close and remain above the $120,000 resistance level, it may find itself with bullish momentum and targeting a retest of its new all-time high at $123,218. Breaking through this level would tend to induce new buying interest, and possibly push BTC into fresh highs. Ongoing inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with robust institutional buying, may be the support needed for a breakout higher, particularly if macroeconomic news or regulatory news is also positive for risk assets. Conversely, a firm breakout below the $116,000 area of support may lead to further decline, with the next important support at the 50-day EMA around $112,526. Weakening technicals, including the bearish MACD crossover and falling RSI, indicate bearish momentum is building. Moreover, increased volatility in the market due to macroeconomic releases or surprise regulatory announcements has the potential to spark sudden sell-offs, especially in a leveraged market environment, driving further price correction in Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin Sees New All-Time Highs as US Crypto Legislation and Institutional Demand Drive Momentum

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  • July 19, 2025
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Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $123,218 this week, spurred by high institutional inflows and increasing regulatory clarity in the United States. The price then stabilized at $118,000, buoyed by $2.02 billion inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs and the clearing of major crypto-related bills—GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC—by the US House of Representatives. These events, and news of an imminent executive order permitting crypto investments in 401(k) plans, have been encouraging investors. With some preliminary indications of cooling momentum, Bitcoin is still likely to retest its all-time highs in the days ahead. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a daily close above $120,000, which would indicate a break above recent all-time high of $123,218. • Watch for the eventual signing of the GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC bills by President Trump, potentially further fueling market sentiment. • Ongoing ETF inflows and corporate treasury buys are still main drivers of bullish momentum. • RSI close to overbought and a declining MACD histogram point to possible short-term consolidation or pullback. Bitcoin has been impressively resilient this week, hitting a new all-time high of $123,218 before consolidating near $118,000. This boom has been driven by institutional and corporate buying, with spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessing inflows of over $2 billion. Contributing to the positive mood, the US House approved significant crypto legislation—GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC bills—to pave the way for more transparent regulations for digital assets. With the market waiting for President Trump’s ultimate approval and the possible executive order permitting crypto in 401(k)s, investor optimism continues to be robust, setting up Bitcoin for another breakout in the near future. Bitcoin set an all-time high price of $123,218 this week underpinned by robust institutional inflows and US regulatory advancements. The price now ranges near $118,000 as markets anticipate additional policy news. A breakout above $120,000 may initiate a fresh rally. •  Bitcoin set an all-time high price of $123,218 at the start of the week. •  Price stabilized around $118,000 on Friday, indicating robust support. •  Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.02 billion inflows as of Thursday. •  US House passed GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC crypto bills. •   President Trump will reportedly sign an executive order permitting crypto in 401(k) plans. •  Institutional demand continues to be strong, with 64 new BTC treasury company initiatives initiated in 2025. •  Technical metrics reflect bullish momentum, but room for short-term pullback exists. Bitcoin’s rally continued this week as it moved to a new all-time high, propelled by increasing interest from institutional investors and major regulatory breakthroughs in the US. The passing of three landmark crypto bills—GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC—by the US House of Representatives was a historic move toward creating a clear and friendly framework for digital assets. These legislative moves are intended to protect investors, bring clarity to regulation, and stimulate greater use of cryptocurrencies in the US financial system. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Institutional demand continued to build, reflected in more than $2 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows this week alone. Besides, several corporations, among them prominent ones like Softbank, Bitfinex (XXI), and Trump Media & Technology Group, introduced BTC treasury programs in 2025. Reports also suggest that President Trump will possibly sign an executive order permitting crypto investments in retirement accounts such as 401(k)s. Combined, these moves portend a robust shift in the perception of digital assets and their adoption into mainstream finance, underscoring a bullish long-term view on Bitcoin. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin started the week off on a very strong footing, recording a fresh all-time high of $123,218 before falling back to $115,736 mid-week and subsequently rebounding to some $118,850. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at close to 69, below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting a respite in bullish momentum and possible trader indecision. At the same time, the MACD is still positive after a late-June crossover, but the diminishing green histogram bars indicate slowing momentum. A sustained close above $120,000 could revive bullish mood, or a failure to maintain current levels might lead to a near-term dip. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to close above the $120,000 level on a daily basis, it has the potential to spark renewed bullish momentum and set the stage for a retest of the recent all-time high at $123,218. A decisive breakout above this level can result in price discovery, with targets stretching to $125,000 and higher, fueled by ongoing institutional inflows and favorable regulatory news. Heavy backing from future legislation and general market optimism may prove to be a catalyst for continued gains in the weeks ahead. On the negative side, should Bitcoin lose the grip above $118,000, there is a risk of a pullback to the $115,000–$113,000 zone of support. The RSI close to overbought signals the weakening momentum, and any indication of ETF slow-down in inflows or regulatory delay may prompt profit-taking. Short-term corrections should also be watched out for, particularly should macroeconomic uncertainty or unexpected market changes temper risk appetite.

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Dormant Bitcoin Whale Stirs: $5.4B BTC Transfer Fuels Volatility Concerns Before Tariff Deadline

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  • July 5, 2025
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A long-dormant Bitcoin whale hit the headlines after moving 50,000 BTC—valued at around $5.4 billion—almost 14 years to the day since they last moved, with concerns over increased market volatility. The enormous transfer, which came from an early miner’s address, was accompanied by a 2% drop in price as Bitcoin dropped below $108,000 after only temporarily crossing above $110,000. This action, combined with slowing exchange volume momentum and impending macroeconomic uncertainty, such as a near-term U.S. tariff deadline, has investors spooked. Even though technical signals point to bearish leanings, persistent institutional demand via BTC spot ETFs may provide a floor to prevent further losses. KEY LOOKOUTS • The unexpected shift of 50,000 inactive BTC heightens the fear of sell-offs and heightened market volatility. • Bitcoin’s fall below $108,000 and the sell signal in MACD point toward a bearish trend persisting over the weekend. • Exchange momentum has fallen to $5.9 billion, reflecting dwindling investor interest and reduced trading interest. • The upcoming U.S. tariff announcement on July 9 might determine overall market sentiment and add to short-term price action. A record Bitcoin whale transaction has shaken the crypto space after 50,000 BTC worth $5.4 billion was transferred from a wallet that had been idle for more than 14 years. The sudden transfer was met with a 2% price drop, driving Bitcoin below $108,000 in the wake of deteriorating investor confidence. Technicals indicate a bearish outlook, with the MACD highlighting a sell sign and exchange volume falling to $5.9 billion, an indication of diminished network activity. While macroeconomic uncertainty mounts prior to the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline, traders are preparing for possible volatility, although institutional demand via BTC spot ETFs can provide a stabilizing influence. One of the inactive Bitcoin whales transferred 50,000 BTC worth $5.4 billion, raising concerns of fresh market volatility. Bitcoin dropped below $108,000, and technical indicators are suggesting further decline. Investors are treading carefully in anticipation of the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline. • A sleeping Bitcoin whale transferred 50,000 BTC—equivalent to around $5.4 billion—for the first time in more than 14 years. • The transaction came from a wallet associated with a pioneering Bitcoin miner. • The price of Bitcoin fell close to 2%, going below $108,000 after passing $110,530 briefly. • Technical levels such as the MACD have reaffirmed bearish bias. • Exchange volume momentum has also fallen to $5.9 billion, a sign of dampened investor enthusiasm. • Market uncertainty is further fueled by the forthcoming July 9 U.S. tariff pause deadline. • Even with the bearish trend, institutional demand via BTC spot ETFs can assist in price stability. A previously dormant Bitcoin wallet belonging to an early miner stunned the crypto world by moving 50,000 BTC, valued at approximately $5.4 billion. This unusual transaction represents one of the biggest one-day Bitcoin transfers ever and has generated broad speculation about the intentions of the whale—strategic repositioning or liquidation buildup. This kind of activity from old wallets generally draws broad interest because of the historical nature of the event as well as the ability to impact sentiment, particularly during times of low volume. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, general market interest seems to be easing off. Exchange volume momentum has fallen significantly since the early part of June, averaging $5.9 billion per day now. The deceleration indicates dwindling trading volumes and risk-averse investor sentiment. With current macroeconomic uncertainty, especially the soon-to-be-decided U.S. tariff, the crypto market is walking into a delicate phase. While the unprovoked whale activity has created talk, it also reflects the volatile nature of sentiment- and surprise-driven crypto markets with long-dormant players. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is indicating bearish energy following a breakdown below a significant descending trendline that it had briefly retaken. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also triggered a sell signal, which suggests mounting downside pressure. Furthermore, the 50-period and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) of $106,827 and $105,896 respectively can serve as short-term support points. If Bitcoin is unable to hold above these EMAs, the bearish trend may deepen; however, a quick rebound above Thursday’s high could invalidate the bearish sentiment and restore upward momentum. FORECAST Bitcoin’s recovery chances remain alive if the interest of buyers comes back, particularly from institutional investors through spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasuries. A jump beyond the $110,000 level would revive the bull scenario and potentially set the stage towards retesting highs. Optimistic macroeconomic news like reducing geopolitical tensions or positive regulatory news would also serve as engines for the upside direction in the future weeks. On the negative side, Bitcoin can experience prolonged pressure if existing bearish technical cues materialize and macroeconomic uncertainty continues. A fall below crucial support levels of $106,800 and $105,800 could provoke additional declines, and the price could get pulled down to $103,000 or even lower. Ongoing loss of exchange volume and a conservative retail atmosphere could also lead to a shortage of buying power, increasing the chances of larger corrections in the near future.

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Bitcoin Stabilizes at $105,000 Resistance with Increasing Institutional Appetite and International Trade Hopes

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  • May 17, 2025
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Bitcoin is presently holding steady at around $103,000 after persistently probing the crucial $105,000 resistance level week after week. This uptrend is complemented by increasing institutional appetite, such as major corporate Bitcoin buying and continuous inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Hope for global trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs between the US, China, and the UK, and the softer US inflation data, have boosted risk-on attitudes in markets. Traders, however, need to exercise caution amid profit-taking cues from owners and market volatility initiated by the second round of repayments on the collapsed FTX exchange. Technical gauges indicate declining bullish pressure, emphasizing the chances of a pullback if Bitcoin is unable to break above resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin has not been able to close above this important level several times and thus is a significant hurdle to continued upside momentum. • Large-scale buys by companies such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise, as well as consistent spot ETF inflows, continue to underpin the bullish argument. • More recent tariff cuts and softer US CPI readings are fueling risk-on sentiment, which is likely to favor Bitcoin’s price action. • Rising realized profits among holders and bearish technicals like the RSI and MACD call for caution, as these may prompt a short-term pullback. Bitcoin’s immediate task is still to overcome the formidable resistance at $105,000, which has been tested a number of times but not broken. At the same time, increasing institutional and corporate demand, epitomized by massive Bitcoin buys and steady ETF inflows, is increasingly supporting its appeal as a strategic asset. Favorable news on world trade agreements and lower US inflation readings are also driving the risk-on tone that may underpin further advances. However, caution is warranted as profit-taking by holders and bearish technical indicators like the RSI and MACD signal the potential for a short-term pullback if the resistance holds. Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $105,000 resistance level amid strong institutional demand and positive global trade news. While risk-on sentiment supports potential gains, profit-taking and bearish technical signals suggest caution ahead. • Bitcoin price is range-bound at $103,000 following several biddings off the $105,000 resistance level. • Recent global trade agreements among the US, China, and UK have relaxed tariff tensions, lifting market sentiment. • Less-than-expected US inflation data has underpinned bets for future Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. • Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise are buying large sums of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. •  US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain experiencing solid inflows, indicative of increasing institutional appetite. •  Profit-taking by owners following recent price appreciation may enhance selling pressure and cause short-term correction. •  Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicating diminishing bullish momentum, recommending caution for investors. Bitcoin’s recent stability around the $103,000 level indicates increasing optimism fueled by favorable trends in international trade and rising institutional demand. Significant trade deals between the US, China, and the UK have reduced tariff tensions and increased risk asset confidence, including Bitcoin. Coupled with this, milder US inflation readings have strengthened expectations of cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the future, further incentivizing investors to look at assets with higher growth prospects. This favorable macroeconomic environment is driving steady demand for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also accelerating, with firms like Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise unveiling material accumulation plans to keep Bitcoin as a component of their treasury holdings. Furthermore, regulatory clarity is strengthening as nations like Ukraine consider legislation for a national Bitcoin reserve, indicating increasing sovereign interest. These trends, along with sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicate rising legitimacy and long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s place within diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin has faced stiff resistance at the $105,000 level, unable to cross it despite several attempts over the last week. Momentum indicators are also indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, with some important measures indicating that traders are beginning to take profits after gains. This has seen a consolidation period, with Bitcoin stabilizing just above $100,000. If the resistance at $105,000 holds firm, Bitcoin may experience a temporary pullback to probe support levels, so it is crucial to keep an eye on price action in the near term. FORECAST Bitcoin’s outlook is positive as increasing institutional demand and robust corporate accumulation are good bases for higher prices. Favorable global trade news and de-escalating tariff tensions are boosting overall market confidence that may cause additional inflows into Bitcoin. Also, constant interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs keeps fueling liquidity and legitimacy, which could create the way for a prolonged rally if Bitcoin can break through the crucial $105,000 resistance point. Fresh buying pressure at that juncture would drive prices upwards, drawing even more investors and strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve asset. Conversely, Bitcoin has issues that might prompt short-term falls. Profit-taking by owners following recent price increases could add selling pressure, particularly if the $105,000 resistance level is too powerful to breach. In addition, future volatility associated with the second round of repayments from the now-bankrupt FTX exchange can send the market into a tizzy. If Bitcoin cannot hold onto momentum and drops below key support around $100,000, it could come under additional pressure as risk-averse traders close out positions, potentially creating a potential retracement before any resumed uptrend.

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Bitcoin Grapples with Market Volatility: Price Reversal in Wake of Tariff Indecision and Institutional Withdrawal

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  • April 12, 2025
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Bitcoin prices have had an extreme price volatility this week, reversing their year-to-date low of $74,508 to trade about $82,500 by Friday. This reversals come despite increasing market indecision, ignited by President Trump’s tariff decrees and eventual 90-day reprieve. Although the cryptocurrency experienced a short-term rally on news of the tariff postponement, institutional appetite is still in the dumps, with Bitcoin spot ETFs witnessing a high net outflow. Also, fear of MicroStrategy’s possible sell-off of Bitcoin can also put more pressure on the market. Yet, against these odds, there have been some glimmers of hope, such as regulatory initiatives in Hong Kong to develop the region’s crypto market and hints that capitulation among investors may be almost over. Bitcoin’s prospects remain uncertain, with the potential varying from a recovery on a short-term basis to more losses, depending on market response to crucial technical levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market response to President Trump’s tariff actions, such as the 90-day delay, continues to be a major driver for Bitcoin’s short-term price action. Any developments or changes in trade tensions could have a profound effect on Bitcoin’s volatility. •  Ongoing withdrawals from Bitcoin spot ETFs, amounting to $712.27 million, reflect a declining institutional demand. This may exert downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin if it continues, especially since institutional investors have been responsible for the stability of Bitcoin’s price over the past few years. •  MicroStrategy’s large unrealized Bitcoin losses and its heavy dependence on Bitcoin as a core asset raise eyebrows. If the company were to be compelled to sell its holding, it would unleash a selling frenzy, accelerating supply pressure and affecting sentiment in the market. •  Although the market’s difficulties, the diminishing size of losses over recent weeks may signal that investor despair is close to ending. This may signal a possible change in market mood, providing a beacon of hope for a longer-term turnaround. Bitcoin’s market prospects are extremely unclear, fueled by continued tariff concerns, declining institutional demand, and the possible influence of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin positions. The recent market volatility, following President Trump’s tariff statements and a follow-on 90-day hiatus, has seen tremendous price swings, as Bitcoin recovered to a year-to-date low around $82,500. Still, while recovery was noted, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced deep outflows indicating declining institutional enthusiasm. Additionally, the potential threat of MicroStrategy having to dispose of some portion of its held Bitcoins because it has to honor financial obligations can threaten market stability. But indications of investor capitulation are beginning to display signs of fatigue, which might portend a move towards greater stability in the near term. The price of Bitcoin has seen extreme volatility, bouncing from a low of $74,508 to about $82,500 in the face of tariff uncertainty and declining institutional demand. Although fears of possible sell-offs by MicroStrategy and ETF outflows remain, indications of investor capitulation might signal a move towards stability. • Bitcoin’s value has experienced high levels of volatility over the past week, rallying from a low point of $74,508 to approximately $82,500, fueled by market indecision. •  The original decline in the value of Bitcoin was prompted by tensions regarding President Trump’s tariff statements, but a later 90-day respite sent relief signals and initiated a relatively modest rebound. •  Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced heavy outflows, worth $712.27 million, as institutional investors lose interest. • MicroStrategy had a huge unrealized loss of $5.91 billion on its Bitcoin holdings, and there was concern that the company could be compelled to sell some of its Bitcoin to meet financial obligations. • If MicroStrategy is compelled to sell its Bitcoin holdings, it would cause a market sell-off, exacerbating supply pressure and hurting Bitcoin’s price. •  The size of losses trapped throughout the crypto space has fallen with every subsequent price leg lower, and this implies that investor capitulation is finally on the verge of concluding. • Hong Kong’s move to legalize staking by approved platforms and ETFs is regarded as an encouraging development, signaling increasing regulatory clarity and facilitating institutional adoption, which indirectly may benefit Bitcoin demand. The price of Bitcoin this week has been closely tied to events around the world and market response to uncertainties about trade policy. One of the main drivers of volatility was the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, followed by a brief moratorium that gave some relief to the market. Although Bitcoin rallied, there is still concern over institutional interest as seen in high outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. This signals a change in institutional investors’ perspective toward the cryptocurrency, which might cause more trouble for the markets. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the corporate front, MicroStrategy’s financial condition has been a cause for concern as the company is sitting on huge unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings. The threat of possible sell-offs to meet financial commitments can rattle investor confidence and increase market pressure. There are, however, encouraging signs, like Hong Kong’s decision to strengthen its crypto regulations, which can drive future institutional demand and lay the groundwork for long-term growth in the space. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The price action of Bitcoin this week has been characterized by extreme volatility, with the cryptocurrency staging a temporary bounce following a new year-to-date low. The price of Bitcoin failed to pass resistance levels, especially the $85,000 level, and was rejected by a declining trendline extending from highs made before. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a possible increase in bearish momentum, showing that the price may see more corrections if it is unable to sustain upward momentum. Although the recent bounce back, Bitcoin’s technical outlook continues to be uncertain, with chances of a temporary rally or continued downfall based on how the market reacts to critical price levels and trendlines. FORECAST The price of Bitcoin may continue its recovery if it manages to break above the falling trendline and close above crucial resistance points, including $85,000. If this happens, it could unlock more bullish momentum, driving Bitcoin towards the psychological $90,000 level, and

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Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Will Geopolitical Tensions Lead to a $75K Reversal or Spark a Bullish Rebound to $90K?

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  • March 15, 2025
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Bitcoin remains in the midst of turbulent waters as tensions over geopolitics, such as Trump’s escalating trade war against Canada, loom large over the supportive effects of easing U.S. inflation data. Though up a moderate 5% on the week, BTC remains susceptible to reversing lower towards $75,000, particularly given decreasing market volumes and ongoing ETF outflows. Though technical indicators imply bearish pressure, future macro events like the potential Fed rate pause and enhancing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire chances might revive bullish momentum. As market sentiment remains suspended, traders eagerly await whether Bitcoin will recover to $90,000 or encounter a further correction in the week ahead. KEY LOOKOUTS • A possible Fed rate hold next week would be a positive for crypto market sentiment and propel new inflows into Bitcoin and digital assets. • Rising US-Canada trade war tensions and worldwide tensions will likely remain a drag on retail investor sentiment, adding to the downside risk for Bitcoin. • Persistent Bitcoin ETF outflows confirm weak institutional sentiment; look for a reversal as the catalyst for bearish momentum. • Parabolic SAR and constricting Bollinger Bands suggest buildup in volatility—BTC’s next step may be quick, either to $75K or $90K. Bitcoin enters a make-or-break period as counterbalancing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors still drive its price direction. Although relenting U.S. inflation and impending Fed rate standstill hold promise for bullish momentum, the US-Canada trade war and entrenched ETF outflows bring investor mood into question. Technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and constricting Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility in the future, with Bitcoin set for a significant breakout in either direction. While BTC hovers around $84,800, market players are divided—will the bulls take charge for a $90K breakout, or does a reversal to $75K await? Bitcoin is at a crossroads as loosening inflation feeds bullish expectations but trade war nerves and ETF selling increase the downside risks. As volatility signals pick up, BTC may swing drastically to $90K or plunge to $75K in the next few days. • Bitcoin price trades around $84,800, indicating a 5% weekly advance despite recent turmoil and macro pressures. • US-Canada trade tensions initiated by Trump’s tariff announcements are cooling retail investor sentiment and weakening market momentum. • Market volumes have fallen for the third consecutive week, enhancing the threat of a possible reversal in price to the $75,000 support level. • Parabolic SAR is still bearish, and narrowing Bollinger Bands point toward an upcoming breakout or breakdown in BTC’s price action. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $830 million worth of outflows, following the pattern of stagnant institutional demand and contributing to near-term volatility. • Polymarket traders imply a 99% probability of a Fed pause, which, if realized, could be positively impacting crypto sentiment. • Geopolitical headlines and softening inflation readings will be among the most important variables determining the price direction of Bitcoin in the week to come. Bitcoin is still in the middle of world financial headlines as wider economic and geopolitical trends keep shaping investors’ moods. The softening of U.S. inflation figures recently was greeted with temporary relief, as everyone expected the Federal Reserve to ease its attitude. But then all attention moved on to intensifying tensions between the U.S. and Canada after former President Donald Trump revealed new trade tariffs. This evolution has provoked apprehensions within market players, dwarfing the encouraging optimism in the inflation news and promoting wariness across the cryptocurrency sector. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, interest in Bitcoin remains buoyant, particularly as policy considerations start gaining prominence. In the United States, legislative efforts such as Florida’s bill to shield Trump’s Bitcoin reserve policy and Texas’s effort to invest in digital assets indicate an increased institutional interest in crypto integration. These actions show the changing function of Bitcoin both in state-level planning and in national economic strategy. As the crypto space continues to mature, these kinds of developments might have a substantial impact on long-term adoption and sentiment of Bitcoin beyond price action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is now displaying signs of consolidation in a tight range, which reflects market indecision. The price has fluctuated between major levels, implying that traders are waiting for a definitive breakout or breakdown before deciding on a direction. The Parabolic SAR also continues to indicate bearish momentum, and the constricting of Bollinger Bands shows decreasing volatility and a possible sharp move in the future. This accumulation usually leads to large price action, and traders are keenly waiting for a breakout that will set the tone for the upcoming trend—whether bullish or bearish. FORECAST If macro sentiment continues to strengthen, particularly in light of an affirmed Fed rate hold and abating geopolitical concerns, Bitcoin can potentially re-take bullish control. Favorable trends like resumed institutional investment interest, possible investment into Bitcoin ETFs, and positive regulatory measures by states including Florida and Texas might also provide a further thrust upward. If that were the case, BTC might challenge still higher levels of resistance, and a short-term bounce toward $90,000 could be an achievable target. Conversely, if trade war tensions heighten or investor sentiment continues to deteriorate amid ongoing ETF outflows and dwindling trading volumes, Bitcoin might experience a downward correction. Weak retail participation and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty may push prices down to test significant support levels. Under a bearish scenario, BTC might drop into the $75,000 area, particularly if risk-off sentiment prevails across the overall financial markets.

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