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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation, Weak Demand, and Correction Risks Ahead

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  • February 22, 2025
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Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $94,000 and $100,000, with weakening institutional demand reflected in $489.60 million of ETF outflows and decreasing network activity, while technical indicators like a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential upside if BTC can break above $100,000—yet muted RSI momentum and upcoming FTX repayments highlight prevailing market uncertainty, and CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may experience further corrections down to $86,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 in the face of large ETF redemptions and softening institutional buying, which presents a tenuous price setting for risk-averse traders. • A bullish MACD crossover presents possible upside momentum in case Bitcoin crosses $100,000, but soft RSI and low network activity continue to increase risk worries. • Deadbeat FTX repayments are creating market uncertainty, as smaller creditor payments trigger nervousness among investors while waiting for larger payment schedules beginning on May 30. • CryptoQuant’s report cautions that in the absence of better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation might fail, potentially dropping prices to support levels at $86,000. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 as institutional appetite falters, with ETF redemptions worth $489.60 million supporting weak market conditions. A bullish MACD crossover suggests possible uptrend momentum if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, though muted RSI readings and low network activity hint at continued market conservatism. CryptoQuant cautions that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to support levels around $86,000, with FTX repayment uncertainties providing additional investor jitters. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 on weak institutional buying and heavy ETF outflows. A bullish MACD crossover indicates upward momentum, but muted RSI and low network activity call for caution. CryptoQuant advises that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin can fall to support levels around $86,000. •  Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February. •  US Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate net withdrawals of $489.60 million through Thursday. •  CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to about $86,000. •  Institutional demand is declining, contributing to the present delicate market conditions. •  Deceased FTX payments have brought further uncertainty, with smaller creditors already being paid. •  A bullish MACD crossover indicates possible upward momentum in case Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier. •  Slowing network activity and multi-month low volatility indicate investor caution. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000, with dipping institutional demand and high ETF outflows. The sentiment of the current crypto market is further subdued by weak network activity, with the network activity index of Bitcoin being the lowest in a year, reflecting a general loss of interest in the markets. This deteriorating demand, along with persisting fears about liquidity, is keeping investors nervous, with some expecting additional price corrections if things do not start looking up. On the other hand, market uncertainty has been compounded by the process of repayment of FTX creditors that has created further uncertainty. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA These trends have resulted in a tentative market environment where aggregate demand seems to be declining. Furthermore, the ongoing exercise of settling creditors by the collapsed FTX exchange has contributed to existing uncertainty among stakeholders. Market players are monitoring these events keenly, as sustained issues with demand and liquidity may have long-term implications for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin technicals imply a guarded accumulation for a possible directional move. The bullish MACD crossover of the daily chart implies a likely surge in momentum in case Bitcoin is able to break through the $100,000 mark, and the RSI staying close to its neutral point of 50 indicates an even tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The consolidation in the $94,000 to $100,000 range indicates a time of balance, with low volatility and moderate volume supporting the idea that a major breakout or breakdown may be on the horizon. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break convincingly above the $100,000 level, the market is likely to find renewed bullish thrust, with upside price action in the direction of the January 30 high of around $106,457. Favorable technical signals like the MACD crossover indicate a probable sustained upside based on growing momentum fueled by optimistic investor sentiment or favorable market developments. If Bitcoin is unable to hold support at the present consolidation level and breaks below $94,000, it may be subject to further price corrections. Further weakening of demand and liquidity conditions, along with uncertainty in the market, might push Bitcoin’s price down to critical support levels around $86,000. This could be worsened by low network usage and continued institutional outflows, which are indicators of a weakening market.

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Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Grapples with Multi-Month Low Volatility in the Face of FTX Repayments and Market Volatility

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  • February 20, 2025
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Bitcoin price has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, with volatility reaching multi-month lows, raising the specter of potential liquidation cascades. The recent slide to $93,388 was precipitated by FTX repayments, as the bankrupt exchange started reimbursing clients with account balances below $50,000. A K33 Research report points out that trading volumes, yields, options premiums, and ETF flows have fallen to levels last witnessed prior to the US Presidential election, indicating a risk-averse market sentiment. As Bitcoin grapples with breaking out of its range, analysts caution that a clear move below $94,000 has the potential to drive prices to the psychological $90,000 level, while a breakout above $100,000 could propel a retest of its January highs. Traders are still undecided, with technical indicators reflecting consolidation and indecision in BTC’s direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong break below $94,000 may lead to a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 might propel a bullish run. • Ongoing customer refunds, amounting to as much as $16.5 billion, may impact Bitcoin’s liquidity and sentiment in the weeks ahead. • Low volatility of BTC is a cause for concern of resultant cascades of liquidations, with speculators waiting for a trigger to a large price shift. • RSI at 42 and MACD convergence indicate consolidation, with speculators looking for a decisive directional breakout in the trend of Bitcoin’s prices. The price of Bitcoin is still in narrow consolidation at $94,000 to $100,000 levels, with volatility at multi-month lows, keeping speculators in the dark. The recent fall to $93,388 was prompted by FTX repayments as the exchange started to reimburse clients, impacting market liquidity. A report by K33 Research points to decreasing trading volumes, yields, and ETF flows as indicative of a risk-averse market sentiment. If Bitcoin drops below $94,000, it may test the psychological $90,000 support level, while a break above $100,000 can result in a retest of January highs. With technical signals indicating indecisiveness, traders are waiting for a catalyst for a clear price direction. Bitcoin is range-trading between $94,000 and $100,000 with volatility at multi-month lows, sparking fears of liquidation risks. FTX repayments have affected market liquidity, with traders waiting for a breakout. A fall below $94,000 may drive BTC to $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 might give rise to a bullish rally. • BTC has been range-bound between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, failing to break its range. • The recent price drop was spurred by FTX starting repayments, affecting market liquidity and sentiment among traders. • BTC’s volatility has come down to multi-month lows, which is of concern regarding the possibility of liquidation cascades in case a significant move takes place. • The RSI at 42 and MACD convergence suggest there is no distinct momentum, representing uncertainty in the market. • A breakdown below $94,000 can send BTC towards $90,000, and a breakout above $100,000 can induce a rally. • Slumping trading volumes, ETF flows, and yields mean the traders are holding out for a clear directional move. • There is no immediate bullish catalyst in the offing, so BTC’s next big move will rely on external market events. Bitcoin’s market activity has tempered noticeably, with volatility falling to multi-month lows, reflecting a risk-averse trading climate. One of the influencing factors in the market is recent FTX repayments, wherein the exchange has initiated repayment of customers who had claims worth less than $50,000, and higher repayment amounts are to be initiated shortly. This has brought liquidity changes, which have resulted in shifting trader sentiment. Furthermore, a K33 Research report suggests that volumes of trading, ETF flows, and yields have fallen to their lowest level since prior to the previous U.S. Presidential election, an indication of less market participation and skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s next big move. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The current market stage is marked by indecisiveness, as investors wait for clear indications before making big moves. With moderate leverage in the market, the possibility of instant large-scale liquidations is still low, but the absence of strong momentum indicates that traders are following a wait-and-watch strategy. Market sentiment is still guarded, and there are no imminent drivers for significant price action. The medium- to long-term direction of Bitcoin is still subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and institutional investment, all of which will have their say in the next wave of market action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical charts show that Bitcoin is in consolidation, with no obvious momentum to break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, indicating neutral to weakly bearish sentiment since it cannot break above the 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are still tightly entwined, indicating uncertainty among traders. The price has been ranging within a tight band, with support and resistance levels controlling short-term actions. Also, CME futures premiums have fallen below 5%, a historically important level that tends to precede changes in market trends. With the current configuration, traders are watching closely for any breakout above or below the consolidation range, which may determine the next major move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break above the $100,000 resistance level, it may initiate a new bullish momentum, drawing fresh buying interest. A break above this range could lead to a retest of its January high at $106,012, possibly marking the beginning of a more sustained uptrend. Optimism in the market, institutional inflows, and other general economic drivers like regulatory clarity or ETF-based demand might propel this rally further. Historically, Bitcoin has fared well in more robust basis regimes, so an improvement in trading volume and investor sentiment could keep the momentum on the upside. On the negative side, if Bitcoin cannot sustain the $94,000 support level, it may drop further towards the psychologically important $90,000 level. A breakdown below this level could cause stop-loss selling and intensify selling pressure, resulting in further downward movement. Moreover, low volatility and diminishing trading activity mean that a precipitous

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation Ongoing Amid Fading Institutional Demand and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • February 15, 2025
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Bitcoin has consolidated between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, which is a period of indecision in the market. Institutional demand is fading, as seen through a $650.80 million net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Its correlation with the S&P 500 is still firm, but it has lost strength in correlation with Gold, as it is not a safe-haven asset but a risk-on asset. The macroeconomic backdrop, such as a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI report and Trump’s move to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, has introduced some volatility into the price action of BTC. Although technicals point to slightly bearish momentum, a conclusive breakout above $100,000 or below $94,000 might pave the way for Bitcoin’s next significant move.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin spot ETFs had a $650.80 million net outflow, reflecting waning institutional interest, which might propel additional price corrections. • US CPI releases and Federal Reserve rate expectations are influencing Bitcoin’s price, elevating market volatility and putting off a potential bullish breakout. • The correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has declined, with institutions going long on the precious metal due to regulation fears, volatility, and increasing fiat devaluation threats. • A clear break below $94,000 would precipitate a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 could be followed by a test of $106,012. Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, and declining institutional demand after spot ETFs experienced a $650.80 million net outflow. Macroeconomic tensions, such as above-predicted US CPI figures and Federal Reserve policy changes, are fueling market volatility. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold has declined, as institutions favor the precious metal because it remains stable amidst fiat devaluation fears. Technically, BTC is in a critical juncture—falling below $94,000 may move prices towards $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 may propel a rally towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Bitcoin is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000, as weakening institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainties put pressure on it. A break above $100,000 could instigate a rally, but a fall below $94,000 could lead to further falls. • BTC has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market indecision. • US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $650.80 million, reflecting diminishing institutional appetite and probable downside threats. • Increased US CPI figures and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions have boosted market uncertainty, influencing the price actions of Bitcoin. • BTC is trending more like a risk-on asset, with tighter correlation to the S&P 500 and a looser association with Gold. • Gold has surpassed Bitcoin in 2024 as institutional and sovereign wealth fund investment lifted its market capitalization. • RSI of 45 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate BTC could experience further corrections if it cannot break levels of resistance. • A price rise above $100,000 can trigger a rally to $106,012, while falling below $94,000 could see a plunge towards $90,000. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market uncertainty as institutional demand falters. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a large net outflow of $650.80 million, indicating decreased interest from institutional investors, which may cause further downward pressure. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, including increasing US CPI data and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions, have introduced volatility into the market. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a risk-on asset, with a higher correlation with the S&P 500 and decreasing correlation with Gold. Institutional investors still prefer Gold, which has gained $1.5 trillion in market capitalization this year, further diminishing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, as the traders wait for a break. Institutional appetite has slowed, as evident from the $650.80 million net Bitcoin spot ETF outflow, with fears of sustaining bearish pressure. Macroeconomic measures such as US inflation data and delay in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to affect BTC’s price movement. If Bitcoin surges above $100,000, it might recover its bullish trend and reach $106,012, but a fall below $94,000 can initiate a downfall towards $90,000. As long as market uncertainty lingers, traders need to pay close attention to important technical metrics and macroeconomic events for the next big move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical indicators of Bitcoin are bearish as it is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting slight bearish momentum after being pushed away from the middle-of-the-road 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also created a bearish crossover with red histogram bars pointing towards further possible corrections. A break below the critical support level of $94,000 by Bitcoin can lead to a fall towards the psychologically significant $90,000 level. On the other hand, a breakout above $100,000 would change momentum in the direction of the bulls, propelling BTC towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Traders will want to keep a close eye on volume and market sentiment for confirmation of the next large move. FORECAST If Bitcoin breaks above the top end of its current range of consolidation at $100,000, it might set off a bullish rally. A successful break with high buying volume would drive BTC towards its former high of $106,012, its last seen on January 31. Additional momentum might see a retest of higher resistance points at $110,000 as institutional and retail traders regain confidence. Macro economic influences, like a weaker US CPI report or a change in Federal Reserve policy in favor of rate cuts, would be the catalysts for Bitcoin’s upside. Moreover, increased adoption by sovereign players and ETFs holding more Bitcoin might lend long-term bullish support. In case Bitcoin does not hold above $94,000, bear pressure may gain strength to take it down towards the next psychological support level of $90,000. Deteriorating institutional appetite, as seen in the recent $650.80 million ETF outflows, might add to downside risks. Furthermore, if macroeconomic volatility continues—i.e., persistently high inflation, tardy Fed rate

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Strong as Fed Freezes Rates: CME’s New Options on BTC Futures Set to Drive Investor Interest

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  • January 30, 2025
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The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% has sparked mixed reactions in the crypto market, with Bitcoin showing a 3% gain despite initial uncertainty. Although the pause in rate cuts might indicate long-term bearish pressure, investor optimism is still boosted by the announcement of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group to introduce options on Bitcoin Friday futures, pending regulatory approval. This will provide more risk management tools for traders and could attract institutional investors who have been hesitant about trading Bitcoin futures. The regulatory and market resilience have kept Bitcoin at the center stage as economic policies evolve. KEY LOOKOUTS • Keeping interest rates flat at 4.25% – 4.50% may lead to long-term uncertainty for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. • Bitcoin jumped 3% as the Fed held interest rates, which shows resilience in the market despite fears that bearish trends might emerge in the long run. • The CME Group’s options on Bitcoin Friday futures may increase institutional interest and provide better risk management for crypto traders. • The success of CME’s Bitcoin options depends on regulatory approval, which could shape investor confidence and influence market dynamics in the coming weeks. Bitcoin surged by 3% lately, after the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% levels and not cut rates may have broader implications for the crypto market in the long term. While there is uncertainty as regards future cuts of interest rates with the stance from the Fed, investor optimism was fueled by a plan of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group to offer options on Bitcoin Friday futures pending approval from regulatory authorities. This initiative aims to provide traders with better risk management tools, potentially attracting institutional investors who were previously cautious about Bitcoin futures. However, regulatory scrutiny remains a key factor in determining the success of these options, making it crucial for investors to monitor upcoming policy changes and market reactions. Bitcoin jumped by 3% after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at a rapid 4.25% to 4.50%, prompting mixed reactions from the market. On another front, the introduction of options on CME’s Bitcoin Friday futures will potentially attract more institutional investors and complement risk management strategies for traders. Regulatory action and policies from the Fed shall determine the future of Bitcoin. • The Feds kept on keeping interest at 4.25% to 4.50%, this caused uncertainty ahead about the actions of the Monetary policy and also what it portends for bitcoin. • Bitcoin pushed 3 percent higher after Feds’ conclusion, as initially worried investors look beyond the recent weakness and await further positive sign. • The US’s CME Group is aiming to introduce bitcoin Friday options when trading in future is approved to start. • This means that with the entry of Bitcoin options, institutional investors who are skeptical of futures trading in crypto may come in. • How successful CME’s Bitcoin option is will depend on the regulatory approval that could get investors going and ensuring market stability. • Bitcoin did respond positively in the short term, but its policy orientation by the Fed may lead to long-term volatility in the crypto space. • The future of Bitcoin will depend on how investors react to upcoming regulatory developments, Fed policies, and institutional adoption of crypto financial instruments. The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25% – 4.50% has created a wave of uncertainty in the financial markets, with Bitcoin showing resilience by gaining 3% following the announcement. While the Fed is still being conservative in terms of future rate adjustments, the crypto market is very sensitive to economic signals. The investors are looking at how this decision might influence liquidity and the market sentiment in the long term. A prolonged period of steady rates might bring bearish pressure on Bitcoin, but for now, the market seems optimistic and reacts positively to short-term developments. BITCOIN Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Adding to the excitement, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) has announced plans to launch options on Bitcoin Friday futures, pending regulatory approval. This move is expected to enhance risk management strategies for traders and potentially attract institutional investors who were previously skeptical about Bitcoin futures. If approved, these options could bring greater liquidity and stability to the market, making Bitcoin trading more structured. However, regulatory scrutiny would continue to remain a key factor, and investors should remain vigilant on how potential policy shifts could influence both crypto prices and institutional participation in the space. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The 3% rise for Bitcoin after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates steady indicates short-term bullish momentum. BTC/USD now tests a resistance level at the $42,000 mark with a potential move higher toward $44,500-$45,000 if that level breaks through. The dynamic support is observed from the 200-day moving average, whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sticks around the level of 55-60; it is fairly bullish but hasn’t gone to overbought levels. A rejection at the resistance zone would likely send Bitcoin back to the $39,500-$40,000 support range, which should provide extra strength with both the 50-day MA and Fibonacci retracement levels. The volume trends and any breakouts will be key as the increasing institutional interest in the CME’s Bitcoin Friday futures options can lead to some volatility in the coming sessions. FORECAST Bitcoin’s short-term bullish momentum has been boosted by its 3% jump after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. If the buying pressure continues, BTC will break above the $42,000 resistance level and open the way for a potential rally toward $44,500 – $45,000. A decisive breakout above this zone, supported by strong volume and institutional participation from CME’s Bitcoin Friday futures options, could push Bitcoin toward $48,000, where the next major resistance lies. Positive macroeconomic factors, along with growing demand for crypto derivatives, may strengthen the bullish case further in the coming weeks. Downside risks, however, are still prevalent, especially if Bitcoin fails to hold above key support levels. A rejection at $42,000 may

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Bitcoin Braces for Volatility Amid Fed Interest Rate Decision and Nvidia Shockwaves

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  • January 29, 2025
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Bitcoin holds around $102,800 after a four-day sell-off as investors await the Fed interest rate decision, which might trigger volatility. Market sentiment is still cautious due to the fact that Nvidia stock has recently dived after the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI search technology firm, thereby spreading its shock waves across crypto markets and sending Bitcoin down 2.6%. Analysts suggest that a dovish Fed stance would favor Bitcoin, whereas a hawkish outlook could be positive for the U.S. dollar and risky assets would feel the pressure. Technical indicators give mixed signals, as RSI shows minor bullish momentum but MACD hints at a downtrend. If Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test the $90,000 support level, whereas a breakout can push it toward $109,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Federal Reserve’s interest rate stand could trigger the volatility of Bitcoin. A dovish stance can pump up the price of BTC, while a hawkish one might strengthen the US dollar and force crypto prices lower. • Bitcoin correlated more with U.S. equities when Nvidia fell by 17% following the increase of DeepSeek. The decline pushed BTC 2.6%. Market nerves remain elevated after the shock. • Bitcoin hovers around $102,800, with RSI signaling mild bullish momentum but MACD showing bearish signs. A drop below $100,000 could test $90,000, while resistance stands at $109,000. • CME futures premiums briefly turned negative, signaling professional traders’ caution. Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) saw net outflows, reflecting a de-risking trend amid broader economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s price remains at $102,800, facing potential volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The emergence of DeepSeek has created a sharp stock drop from Nvidia, bringing caution to the crypto market that has led to a 2.6% BTC decline. Technical indicators point in mixed signals as RSI shows mild bullish momentum while MACD hints of a downtrend. Market sentiment gets further shaken up by CME futures turning negative and significant outflows from Bitcoin ETPs. If BTC falls below $100,000, it could test the $90,000 support, or a breakout above could push it towards $109,000. Bitcoin is trading around $102,800 as it awaits the Fed’s interest rate decision. The stock drop of Nvidia and market caution have pressured BTC. Key levels include $90,000 support and $109,000 resistance. • Federal Reserve decision, upcoming could drive Bitcoin volatility, with dovish stance supporting BTC and hawkish tone strengthening the U.S. dollar. • Nvidia stock dropped 17% after the rise of DeepSeek, causing a 2.6% fall in Bitcoin, reflecting the increasing correlation of BTC with the U.S. equities. • RSI is showing a mild bullish momentum, while MACD is pointing towards a potential downtrend. • A breach below $100,000 could push BTC toward $90,000, or a good rally could surge it to $109,000. • CME futures briefly turned negative, indicating careful trading among professionals and reflecting a larger de-risking trend. • Bitcoin ETPs experienced net weekly inflows of 6,698 BTC but had significant outflow worth 6,900 BTC on Monday, which showed how uncertain the market was. • Trump’s push for lower interest rates could impact the Fed’s policy and, in turn, influence Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. Bitcoin’s price remains around $102,800, with market participants closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, which could trigger significant volatility. A dovish stance from the Fed might support Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar, while a hawkish approach could put downward pressure on risky assets, including crypto. More recently, though, is the 17% stock drop by Nvidia due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has led to market volatility and dragged Bitcoin down by 2.6%. The correlation in BTC with U.S. equities continues to rise, which means that any crypto price action seems to be depending more on traditional financial market movements. BITCOIN Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, with the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, stock market trends, and institutional investor sentiment shaping its trajectory. The growing correlation between BTC and U.S. equities, as seen with Nvidia’s sharp drop impacting Bitcoin, highlights the broader financial market’s influence on crypto assets. Traders are also monitoring the Bitcoin ETPs’ liquidity trend, where outflows in the recent past are indicating a market that is somewhat cautious. On the other hand, the derivatives market, especially the CME futures, indicates professional traders de-risking ahead of the potential volatility. With these dynamics in place, Bitcoin’s short-term price movements will be influenced by external catalysts, technical strength, and market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s technical indicator picture is more mixed, at best. There may be both sides to the tale. The Relative Strength Index is reported at 55, bouncing off the neutral midpoint of 50. This tends to suggest slight uptick buying momentum. Nonetheless, the MACD recently formed a bearish crossover, suggesting downward momentum ahead. BTC has been probing its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $98,223. If this break lower is confirmed, it may well accelerate losses towards the next significant support area at $90,000. On the upside, if Bitcoin can stay above $102,000 and continues to build upward momentum, then it could head towards the $109,000 resistance area. With mixed signals from indicators and increasing volatility expected due to macroeconomic events, traders are cautious about the next move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin can stay above the $102,000 support level and gather momentum, a rally toward $109,000 is possible in the near term. A break above this resistance could trigger a stronger bullish move, potentially targeting $115,000 in the coming weeks. The RSI is above 50, and thus, mildly bullish momentum prevails, which shows that buyers are slowly starting to take over. A dovish Federal Reserve policy or a weak U.S. dollar might even add more pressure upwards, driving institutional investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. A boost in CME futures open interest and inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) would validate a bullish stance further. On the negative side, in case Bitcoin breaches below $100,000 and closes below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average

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Bitcoin Price Forecast BTC Rebounds Above $97K Ahead of US CPI Data Release
Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Rebounds Above $97K Ahead of US CPI Data Release

Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a strong rebound, trading above $97,000 on Wednesday after testing the critical psychological level of $90,000 earlier this week. This price rebound comes as traders prepare for potential volatility ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Soft inflation data, such as the latest US Producer Price Index report, has triggered a renewed appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin. Investors are keenly watching the CPI data since it could impact the future interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. Key Lookouts •  Bitcoin rebounded, trading above $97,000, after testing the $90,000 psychological level early this week on expectations of more volatility before US CPI data. •  The US Producer Price Index came in softer than expected, giving a boost to risk assets, including Bitcoin and pausing a rise in US Treasury bond yields. •  Analysts expect potential expansionary policies under Donald Trump, including tax cuts, which could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the coming months. •  Bitcoin’s technical indicators are showing bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above neutral and the MACD nearing a bullish crossover, signaling potential further price increases. Recent inflation data, especially the US Producer Price Index for December, which indicated a slower-than-expected increase in wholesale inflation, has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s price action. This has again brought renewed interest in risk assets like Bitcoin, hinting at the possibility of softer inflation and possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Softer inflation might alleviate some fears over rising interest rates and will provide a relatively better environment for Bitcoin to sustain its recovery process. As the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due to be published, any signal of lower inflation might add strength to the upward pressure on Bitcoin. Here are some of the important factors that make Bitcoin’s price action and its probable future movements in the market so interesting: •  Bitcoin recovered strongly, rising above $97,000 after retesting the critical level on $90,000 last week. It may potentially enable more price appreciation. •  Traders remain on high alert ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index data, which could have a profound impact on Bitcoin’s price action. • The softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December has improved the appetite of investors for risk assets such as Bitcoin, with hope that the inflation might have already peaked and interest rates might be cut by the Federal Reserve. •  If the inflation data is within expectations, then the Federal Reserve may relax on its stance for interest rates, which can help in creating a more favorable environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets. •  A report from K33 Research indicates that the expected expansionary economic policies of former President Donald Trump, including extending tax cuts and relief for working-class Americans, could positively impact risk assets like Bitcoin in the future. •  Bitcoin has shown an increasing correlation with traditional equity markets, especially the Nasdaq, reflecting broader market sentiment and making Bitcoin more sensitive to movements in the stock market. • Rising US 10-year Treasury bond yields and a strengthening US Dollar have squeezed Bitcoin’s price, which tumbled below $90,000 earlier this week before rebounding. • On the technical front, Bitcoin shows positive momentum: its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well above neutral and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive and rising, signaling an upward trajectory if the price continues to move upwards. •  If Bitcoin can hold the recovery and close above $100,000, it could aim for a retest of its all-time high near $108,353. However, support is likely around $85,000 if the market correction continues. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, especially the Nasdaq, has been increasing in recent months. As shown in the latest K33 Research report, Bitcoin has been trending in sync with the equity markets for the most part, especially in the event of market corrections. Treasury bonds and the US Dollar have recently exerted pressure on Bitcoin, sending it below $90,000. However, Bitcoin managed to rebound since then, which means most of the investor sentiment still remains positive for the digital asset. BTC/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Jacob The correlation of Bitcoin with the traditional financial markets, especially Nasdaq, has been rising lately. As has been observed from a recent report by K33 Research, Bitcoin has moved in tandem more with the trends of the overall equity market especially during periods of volatility. Pressure from rising Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar has seen Bitcoin fall to below the $90,000 mark recently. However, Bitcoin has since rebounded, which indicates that investor sentiment towards the digital asset remains largely positive despite external pressures. Technical Analysis Bitcoin is currently exhibiting bullish momentum and trading above $97,000. The Relative Strength Index is at 52, which is an indication of growing upward pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is near a bullish crossover, meaning the price might go up. Immediate resistance is around $100,000, with a break above this level targeting the all-time high of $108,353. Key support lies around $90,000 and further near $85,000 if the price faces any correction. Support and Resistance Forecast The primary support area is at around $90,000, a major psychological level which previously had provided a bounce in the past. It’s expected that, if the price breaks below this level, the main next support would be at $85,000, which might help limit declines further. A sustained move below $85,000 may indicate deeper bearish momentum towards $80,000, thus becoming significant levels to determine the price action of the Bitcoin in its short term and may be directing the purpose of any potential recovery process. The immediate resistance for Bitcoin is at the $100,000 level, which is a psychological barrier. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, the next significant resistance is seen near the all-time high of $108,353. A breakout above this level could push Bitcoin toward new highs, potentially targeting $115,000

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