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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Levels Out At Around $84,000 Following Regulatory Clarity and Fed Policy Cues

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  • March 22, 2025
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Bitcoin holds its ground at $84,000 this week thanks to encouraging regulatory clarity from the US SEC and sound interest rate policy cues from the Federal Reserve. Institutional buying is also recovering, as evident from healthy flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Furthermore, decreasing global tensions and crypto-positive utterances by political leaders have additionally improved confidence levels in the market. As technical indicators report contradictory signals, total sentiment remains positive but with caution since Bitcoin is still acquiring mainline popularity and regulatory approval. KEY LOOKOUTS • The SEC explanation that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining incentives are not securities boosted investor mood and may usher in new institutional investors for Bitcoin. • The Federal Reserve maintained rates steady and repeated its rate cutting projection, creating a conducive macroeconomic climate for crypto assets such as Bitcoin. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net inflow of $661.20 million this week, which could be an indication of a renewed surge in institutional demand and a relief from recent sell-side pressure. • The ongoing Gaza tensions and Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the 200-day EMA are reasons for concern. A more severe pullback is possible if BTC fails to regain support above $85,500. Even with Bitcoin stabilizing near the $84,000 level this week, the market continues to hang in the balance as a combination of macroeconomic drivers and geopolitical considerations remains at large to shape investor sentiments. The recent indication by the US SEC that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining incentives do not constitute securities has given a regulatory boost with the potential to attract more institutional investment. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s stance in keeping interest rates unchanged and reaffirming its rate-cut projection has provided a positive environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Further, the significant net inflow of $661.20 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates a potential resurrection in institutional demand. Still, increased geopolitical tensions push, especially in Gaza, and Bitcoin’s failure to hold above the 200-day EMA mean caution continues to be justified in the short term. Bitcoin stays flat at $84,000 with positive regulatory clarity and consistent Fed policies. Solid ETF inflows indicate increasing institutional demand, but geopolitical tensions and technical resistance at the 200-day EMA make caution prudent in advance. • Bitcoin price steadies at $84,000 after recovering 2% for the week. • US SEC makes it clear PoW mining rewards aren’t securities, with improving market sentiment. • The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged and holds rate cut projection for 2025. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs see a net inflow of $661.20 million, with increased institutional demand. • BTC briefly reached $87,000 but couldn’t hold above its 200-day EMA, reflecting technical weakness. • Geopolitical events, such as the Gaza conflict and US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, remain in the minds of investors. • If BTC cannot retake the 200-day EMA at $85,500, then a correction to support levels of $78,258 is likely. Bitcoin remained resilient this week, maintaining its ground around the $84,000 mark against general market uncertainties. One of the main drivers behind this stability is the encouraging regulatory progress from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which made it clear that Proof-of-Work (PoW) mining rewards do not fall under securities. This move has generated a big increase in investor sentiment and indicated a more positive approach to the crypto market. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to holding interest rates and keeping its rate cut view for the year has also boosted sentiment in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Furthermore, the substantial inflow of $661.20 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates renewed institutional investor appetite, reflecting increased confidence and long-term hope in the market. Other positive global events, including diplomatic negotiations among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, have also been contributing to reducing some of the investor anxiety. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s friendly attitude toward crypto, particularly his speech during the Digital Asset Summit, further contributed to the general positive storyline for the space. As Bitcoin keeps gaining acceptance from the mainstream and institutional investment, such developments become instrumental in defining the future direction of digital assets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin encountered resistance after touching briefly the $87,000 threshold earlier in the week but found it difficult to sustain above pivotal levels. Despite breaking above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) initially, it could not sustain that level of support, which could indicate short-term vulnerability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed losing momentum, moving below the mid-point 50 level. If Bitcoin is able to retake and maintain above the 200-day EMA around $85,500, it may continue its rally towards the $90,000 psychological level. But if it fails to retake this level, it may pull back towards the next significant support level around $78,258. FORECAST Bitcoin is able to retake and hold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $85,500, it may indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. Bullish macroeconomic signals, regulatory guidance by the SEC, and robust institutional flows via spot ETFs can be the stimulus needed for BTC to test the $87,000 resistance area again. If a breakout occurs above this threshold, it will clear the way for the next important psychological target of $90,000, which will continue to draw more buyers and further solidify general market sentiment. On the negative side, though, if Bitcoin cannot retake support at the 200-day EMA and keeps facing selling pressure, it can activate a deeper correction. The subsequent important support comes at around $78,258, and breaking below that may increase bearish sentiment. Rising geopolitical tensions or declining ETF inflows are also possible causes of increased selling pressure. In this scenario, investors are likely to adopt a risk-off strategy, causing further short-term downside action.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Will Geopolitical Tensions Lead to a $75K Reversal or Spark a Bullish Rebound to $90K?

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  • March 15, 2025
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Bitcoin remains in the midst of turbulent waters as tensions over geopolitics, such as Trump’s escalating trade war against Canada, loom large over the supportive effects of easing U.S. inflation data. Though up a moderate 5% on the week, BTC remains susceptible to reversing lower towards $75,000, particularly given decreasing market volumes and ongoing ETF outflows. Though technical indicators imply bearish pressure, future macro events like the potential Fed rate pause and enhancing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire chances might revive bullish momentum. As market sentiment remains suspended, traders eagerly await whether Bitcoin will recover to $90,000 or encounter a further correction in the week ahead. KEY LOOKOUTS • A possible Fed rate hold next week would be a positive for crypto market sentiment and propel new inflows into Bitcoin and digital assets. • Rising US-Canada trade war tensions and worldwide tensions will likely remain a drag on retail investor sentiment, adding to the downside risk for Bitcoin. • Persistent Bitcoin ETF outflows confirm weak institutional sentiment; look for a reversal as the catalyst for bearish momentum. • Parabolic SAR and constricting Bollinger Bands suggest buildup in volatility—BTC’s next step may be quick, either to $75K or $90K. Bitcoin enters a make-or-break period as counterbalancing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors still drive its price direction. Although relenting U.S. inflation and impending Fed rate standstill hold promise for bullish momentum, the US-Canada trade war and entrenched ETF outflows bring investor mood into question. Technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and constricting Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility in the future, with Bitcoin set for a significant breakout in either direction. While BTC hovers around $84,800, market players are divided—will the bulls take charge for a $90K breakout, or does a reversal to $75K await? Bitcoin is at a crossroads as loosening inflation feeds bullish expectations but trade war nerves and ETF selling increase the downside risks. As volatility signals pick up, BTC may swing drastically to $90K or plunge to $75K in the next few days. • Bitcoin price trades around $84,800, indicating a 5% weekly advance despite recent turmoil and macro pressures. • US-Canada trade tensions initiated by Trump’s tariff announcements are cooling retail investor sentiment and weakening market momentum. • Market volumes have fallen for the third consecutive week, enhancing the threat of a possible reversal in price to the $75,000 support level. • Parabolic SAR is still bearish, and narrowing Bollinger Bands point toward an upcoming breakout or breakdown in BTC’s price action. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $830 million worth of outflows, following the pattern of stagnant institutional demand and contributing to near-term volatility. • Polymarket traders imply a 99% probability of a Fed pause, which, if realized, could be positively impacting crypto sentiment. • Geopolitical headlines and softening inflation readings will be among the most important variables determining the price direction of Bitcoin in the week to come. Bitcoin is still in the middle of world financial headlines as wider economic and geopolitical trends keep shaping investors’ moods. The softening of U.S. inflation figures recently was greeted with temporary relief, as everyone expected the Federal Reserve to ease its attitude. But then all attention moved on to intensifying tensions between the U.S. and Canada after former President Donald Trump revealed new trade tariffs. This evolution has provoked apprehensions within market players, dwarfing the encouraging optimism in the inflation news and promoting wariness across the cryptocurrency sector. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, interest in Bitcoin remains buoyant, particularly as policy considerations start gaining prominence. In the United States, legislative efforts such as Florida’s bill to shield Trump’s Bitcoin reserve policy and Texas’s effort to invest in digital assets indicate an increased institutional interest in crypto integration. These actions show the changing function of Bitcoin both in state-level planning and in national economic strategy. As the crypto space continues to mature, these kinds of developments might have a substantial impact on long-term adoption and sentiment of Bitcoin beyond price action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is now displaying signs of consolidation in a tight range, which reflects market indecision. The price has fluctuated between major levels, implying that traders are waiting for a definitive breakout or breakdown before deciding on a direction. The Parabolic SAR also continues to indicate bearish momentum, and the constricting of Bollinger Bands shows decreasing volatility and a possible sharp move in the future. This accumulation usually leads to large price action, and traders are keenly waiting for a breakout that will set the tone for the upcoming trend—whether bullish or bearish. FORECAST If macro sentiment continues to strengthen, particularly in light of an affirmed Fed rate hold and abating geopolitical concerns, Bitcoin can potentially re-take bullish control. Favorable trends like resumed institutional investment interest, possible investment into Bitcoin ETFs, and positive regulatory measures by states including Florida and Texas might also provide a further thrust upward. If that were the case, BTC might challenge still higher levels of resistance, and a short-term bounce toward $90,000 could be an achievable target. Conversely, if trade war tensions heighten or investor sentiment continues to deteriorate amid ongoing ETF outflows and dwindling trading volumes, Bitcoin might experience a downward correction. Weak retail participation and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty may push prices down to test significant support levels. Under a bearish scenario, BTC might drop into the $75,000 area, particularly if risk-off sentiment prevails across the overall financial markets.

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