Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Seeks $120K as Institutional Flows and Fed Rate Cut Speculations Support Recovery
Bitcoin prolonged its two-week rebound this week, finding stability at $115,000 as tremendous institutional flows of $1.7 billion and fresh corporate buying from entities such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet sustained hopes. Market mood was also boosted by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with traders even factoring in the likelihood of a bigger 50 bps cut. On-chain analytics revealed all-time-high stablecoin reserves on Binance, indicating robust liquidity and possible buying capability, while technicals indicate space for BTC to probe the $120,000 psychological level if key supports remain intact. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets largely anticipate a 25 bps rate reduction, with minor probabilities of 50 bps; the result may significantly impact BTC’s next direction. • Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.7 billion inflows, highest since mid-July; sustained demand could solidify BTC’s revival. • Binance stablecoin reserves reached a record of $39 billion, indicating robust potential buying capacity that might drive further growth. • BTC needs to stay above $113,000 support and overcome $116,000 resistance in order to move up towards the pivotal $120,000 psychological level. Bitcoin is continuing its rebounding push, trading close to $115,000 as institutional buying and fresh corporate buying add to investor morale. Hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut early next week, as well as record-breaking stablecoin holdings on Binance, are driving risk-on and liquidity support for further gains. If Bitcoin holds its current price above key support areas and overcomes near-term resistance, the price may continue its rally towards the significant $120,000 psychological level in the next few days. Bitcoin remains firm at levels around $115,000 as it is buoyed by $1.7 billion worth of ETF inflows and fresh corporate buying. With Fed rate cut expectations supporting market mood, BTC may rally to the $120,000 level if resistance zones are overcome. • Bitcoin is trading around $115,000, continuing its two-week reversal with almost 4% weekly increases. • Institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs hit $1.7 billion, a record since mid-July. • MicroStrategy and Metaplanet have added more BTC to their holdings, solidifying corporate demand. • Markets now price in full 25 bps Fed rate cut, a 7.3% probability of a 50 bps cut. • Binance stablecoin reserves reach an all-time high at $39 billion, which is a strong indicator of buying power. • Technicals indicate that BTC is holding above support at $113,000 and resistance at $116,000. • Should momentum persist, the $120,000 psychological level may be tested by BTC in the near future. Bitcoin’s rebound gained steam this week as high institutional and corporate interest revived market confidence. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.7 billion inflows as they post their third straight week of gains and reflect on renewed large investor demand. Large institutions such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet also increased their stakes, indicating ongoing belief in Bitcoin as a store of value. Institutional buying captured in this institutional wave is a sign of increased confidence in digital assets, particularly in a time of easing inflationary pressures in the US economy. BITCOIN DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut contributed to the bullish sentiment in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Weaker labor market statistics and deflating producer prices underpinned hopes the Fed will loosen policy, something investors view as a positive environment for Bitcoin. The confluence of new inflows, robust liquidity from stablecoin reserves, and accommodative macro conditions has established a bullish backdrop for BTC that continues to keep participants upbeat about further gains in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin displays signs of extended recovery after the price recaptured the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $113,112 a few days ago. The daily chart indicates resistance near $116,000, a price that BTC needs to close above in order to further solidify its momentum towards the psychological level at $120,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 56, indicating growing bullish momentum, while the MACD indicator continues to indicate a bullish crossover, inferring additional upside as long as support levels remain intact. FORECAST If Bitcoin continues to hold above the $113,000 support and manages to breach the resistance at $116,000 successfully, it may move higher towards the important psychological level of $120,000. Insatiable institutional inflows, all-time high stablecoin reserves, and favorable macroeconomic factors like expectations of Fed rate cuts offer a positive environment for further rallies in the short term. A decisive close above $120,000 could even pave the way for BTC to challenge higher levels later this month. Meanwhile, inability to maintain above the $113,000 support level would unleash fresh selling pressure, pulling BTC back towards the $111,000 short-term holder cost basis or even the $107,429 July low. Market reservations, continuous downside hedging in options, and a weak stabilization trend observed by Glassnode indicate risks of correction persist. Traders would observe closely for a change in sentiment or declining inflows, which may impact BTC’s short-term trend.