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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Firm Near Multi-Year High In Anticipation of Pivotal Fed and BoE Policy Announcements

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  • June 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair remains firm above mid-1.3500s as investors wait for pivotal economic events, such as the UK CPI data and the forthcoming monetary policy announcements of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While dovish BoE hopes and recent weaker UK economic figures press on the British Pound, the US Dollar is also capped by increasing speculation of a September Fed rate cut. With recent mixed fundamentals and increased market risk aversion, the pair remains in a tight range, as investors hold back from taking firm positions in anticipation of such significant risk events. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be carefully observed for guidance on the BoE’s future policy action. A lower print would reinforce rate cut bets. • Market attention remains on whether the BoE hints at a rate cut trajectory in light of recent developments of economic slowdown in the UK. • Any dovish message or confirmation of a September rate cut can pressure the USD and underpin GBP/USD. • Continued Middle East tensions and global trade uncertainties could drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is stuck in a range above the mid-1.3500s as traders prepare for a week of high-impact economic events. The next UK inflation figures and the Bank of England’s policy meeting should provide pivotal guidance for the British Pound, particularly in light of rising bets on a rate cut in light of soft economic data. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision will dictate the near-term direction of the US Dollar, which has come under pressure from anticipation of September easing. With mixed signals and general geopolitical worries, market participants are being cautious, holding the pair in a narrow trading range. GBP/USD hovers in a tight range over the mid-1.3500s as markets wait for the UK CPI and central bank action. BoE rate reduction hopes and dovish Fed sentiment keep both USD and GBP action contained. Traders sit on the sidelines in anticipation of significant event risks this week. • GBP/USD maintains its position above mid-1.3500s, without apparent intraday direction. • The pair is close to a three-year high, consistent with recent GBP strength. • Wednesday’s UK CPI data will be an important guide for BoE policy expectations. • BoE is likely to turn dovish in the face of dismal UK economic statistics. • Fed policy announcement on Wednesday can influence USD action heavily. • Market is expecting a possible Fed rate cut by September, capping USD advances. • Increasing Middle East tensions underpin USD’s safe-haven demand but limit volatility. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation as investors wait for a string of important economic events this week. Market participants are most keenly interested in the publication of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) figures and the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, both of which should give important clues about the direction of interest rates in the UK. Recent evidence of UK economic contraction has grown speculation on the BoE’s potential to cut policy stance ahead of schedule, shaping sentiment towards the British Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, the US Federal Reserve policy release is also under scrutiny, as market players seek directions regarding when possible rate cuts would be implemented later in the year. Although the US Dollar is held up by safe-haven appetite amidst geopolitical risks, hopes that the Fed would shift towards more accommodative policies are holding back aggressive bullish pressure. The overall market is reflecting a defensive tone as traders hold back from placing big bets until there is greater clarity from these crucial central bank events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a very tight consolidation range just above the mid-1.3500s with a lack of strong momentum. The pair is still near its recent multi-year high, reflecting underlying bullishness, but the failure to break suggests indecision on the part of traders. Support is near the 1.3550 level and resistance near the recent high at 1.3600. A continued advance above this resistance would potentially set the stage for more upside, while a breakdown below support may indicate short-term weakness in front of the Fed and BoE announcements. FORECAST If the coming UK CPI data suprises to the higher side or the Bank of England takes a less dovish tone than anticipated, the British Pound might pick up speed. Moreover, anything the Federal Reserve suggests that there is a longer horizon before rate cuts would act to reinforce GBP/USD upside as well. Under these circumstances, the pair may break through recent highs and aim for levels above 1.3600, provided global risk sentiment should revive. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK inflation reading or definite indications of future rate reductions by the BoE will heavily burden the Pound. Should the Fed hold a relatively aggressive stance or geopolitical tensions escalate, US Dollar demand might be elevated, pushing GBP/USD down. A breach of the 1.3550 support will potentially usher in further losses towards the 1.3500 psychological level and maybe even lower.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Inches Close to 1.3500 as Weak US Dollar and BoE Halt Bets Fuel Sterling

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  • June 2, 2025
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GBP/USD exchange rate starts the week strong, moving nearer to the important 1.3500 level as renewed US Dollar weakness keeps pressures on the pair. The weakening of the USD is fueled by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions after soft PCE inflation readings and rising apprehensions regarding the US fiscal situation, especially in light of President Trump’s recent spending bill. In the meantime, the British Pound gets support from speculation that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates unchanged at its next June meeting. Yet, generalized caution in markets on account of rising geopolitical tensions and new US-China trade uncertainties might restrict the pair’s gains. The market now looks to future US economic news and Fed Chairman Powell’s statements for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market focus will be on near-term US economic releases, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for additional indications about the direction of Fed interest rates. • Expectations of the BoE halting rate cuts at its June 18 gathering remain underpinning the GBP, with central bank guidance being a key variable in shaping GBP/USD sentiment. • Concerns about the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s latest spending budget, and heightened US-China trade tensions can pressure the USD in the short term. • Rising geopolitical tensions—led by Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East—can drive safe-haven demand for the USD and cap gains in GBP/USD even with underlying positive drivers. GBP/USD pair remains volatile to a variety of key factors that can influence its near-term direction. Market players will be keenly watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming comments and the newest US macroeconomic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for cues on the Federal Reserve rate outlook. On the British side, hopes that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting remain behind the support for the Pound. But chronic worries over the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s recent spending bill, and escalating tensions in US-China trade relations could further pressure the US Dollar to the downside. Meanwhile, wider risk-off sentiment sourced from the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East might provide some support to the Greenback, potentially putting a lid on the upside for GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is supported by hopes of a BoE rate standstill and continued USD weakness fueled by weak US data and fiscal issues. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and a conservative global risk tone could cap any further appreciation. Traders are now looking to essential US data and Fed commentary for new direction. •  GBP/USD trades around 1.3500, gaining positive momentum in the face of new USD weakness. •  Expectations for Fed rate cut increase after weak PCE inflation data in the US. •  US fiscal worries deepen following President Trump’s spending bill, putting pressure on the Dollar. •   BoE to keep rates steady in its June 18 meeting, favoring GBP strength. •  Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East weigh on global risk appetite. •   US-China trade uncertainty returns after Trump’s remarks, contributing to USD pressure. •   Upcoming US data and Powell’s address are in the spotlight for short-term direction for markets. GBP/USD pair has begun the week on a firm footing, helped by more general weakness in the US Dollar and enhanced confidence in the British Pound. A milder US inflation reading, as expressed through the most recent PCE Price Index, has further fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will choose additional policy loosening in the months ahead. This mood, together with increasing unease regarding the US fiscal situation in the wake of passage of a new government appropriation bill, has further contributed to the downward pressure on the Dollar. In the meantime, the British Pound holds steady, supported by hopes the Bank of England will be less willing to make further cuts in future interest rates, with no near-term moves anticipated at its next policy session. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView All the while, global market sentiment is being influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations. Recent comments from President Trump, in which he hinted that China might not completely live up to the terms of their trade deal, have also added to investor wariness. Also, all the recent conflicts in places like Eastern Europe and the Middle East still bear down on overall market sentiment. Therefore, investors are remaining close to upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches by officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell, for any signals that might impact policy expectations and currency market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is demonstrating signs of bullish momentum as it slowly inches towards the important psychological resistance around the 1.3500 level. Sustained break above this point may pave the way for further appreciation, with the next resistance at 1.3570–1.3600. On the downside, near-term support is at 1.3420, followed by firmer support at 1.3370, where the buyers may get back in. The overall framework is positive, but a decisive breakout above 1.3500 is required to ensure further uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD pair holds scope for additional upside if prevailing momentum is sustained and the pair is able to achieve a clear breakout above the 1.3500 psychological mark. A change in market sentiment, aided by dovish communications from the Federal Reserve or improved UK economic indicators, could propel the pair to the next level of resistance around 1.3570–1.3600. Moreover, if the Bank of England is reticent about rate cuts while the Fed tends to ease, the policy differences might further favor bullish action in the pair. Conversely, any indication of strength in US economic statistics or even a more aggressive stance at the Fed can revive demand for the US Dollar at the expense of GBP/USD. A failure to hold above the 1.3500 level could trigger a short-term pullback, with initial support at 1.3420, and a further correction feasible towards 1.3370 if bearish momentum takes over. In addition, rising geopolitical tension or

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Edges Higher as UK GDP Outlook Improves Amid US Dollar Pressure and Trade Uncertainties

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  • May 15, 2025
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GBP/USD is up near 1.3300 in anticipation of the UK’s Q1 GDP release, led by a weaker US Dollar as trade uncertainties continue. The UK economy is expected to report firmer growth of 0.6% in Q1 compared to 0.1% in Q4 2024, which supports investor confidence. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness continues as Washington seems to prefer a weaker currency to improve trade competitiveness. Nevertheless, hopes for hawkish Federal Reserve rate cuts have dissipated, capping the downside pressure on the USD. Traders are watching closely UK economic releases and forthcoming US retail sales and inflation data to determine the near-term prospects of both currencies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is on the UK’s initial GDP growth rate, which is expected to display a significant acceleration to 0.6%, indicating potential economic strength. • Ongoing pressure on the US Dollar due to uncertainties around trade and potential Washington desire for a softer dollar to prop up exports. • Lower market expectations of decisive Fed rate reductions, with a mere 74% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in September, affecting USD strength. • Recent labor data showed slower job growth and rising unemployment, but moderate wage increases may influence the Bank of England’s inflation outlook and policy decisions. Investors are closely watching several key factors as GBP/USD edges higher. The UK’s Q1 GDP data, expected to show growth of 0.6%, could reinforce confidence in the British economy’s recovery. At the same time, the US Dollar continues to come under pressure due to uncertainties and speculations over whether Washington prefers a weak dollar to promote exporters. The hopes for Federal Reserve rate decreases have, however, faded, capping the dollar’s losses. Moreover, slower job growth and softening wage increases in the UK’s labor market provide Bank of England’s inflation outlook complexity, making traders keep an eye out for possible changes in monetary policy. GBP/USD is rising as the UK’s Q1 GDP should indicate more robust growth, which will enhance market sentiment. The US Dollar is still under pressure due to trade uncertainty and weaker Fed rate cut expectations. On the other hand, UK employment data and wage levels continue to put the Bank of England’s policy direction in the spotlight. • GBP/USD is trading around 1.3300, helped by a weaker US Dollar in light of continued trade uncertainty. • The UK economy is forecasted to grow by 0.6% in Q1 2025, up from 0.1% in Q4 2024, signaling economic acceleration. • Washington may prefer a weaker dollar to enhance US export competitiveness. • Expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts have eased, with only a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September. • Recent UK labor market data shows slower job growth, rising unemployment, and easing wage gains. • Some easing of the Bank of England’s inflation worry is possibly to be delivered by moderate wage growth. • Market attention turns to Friday’s UK GDP and factory data, followed by US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases later this month. The British Pound is gaining strength as the UK heads to publish its first-quarter economic expansion figures. Forecasts are that the economy has improved at a better rate than it did last quarter, and that is helping increase confidence levels in investors. On the other hand, doubts about global trade and the prospects of the US Dollar are having an impact on movements in currency. The weaker US Dollar is behind the Pound’s rise, reflecting wider worries over continued trade tensions. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the British labor market also underwent some shifting, with gradual job growth slowing and a tiny increase in unemployment. Wages, though, continue to grow modestly, providing some upbeat news for the economy. Those watching closely, though, include investors who are monitoring closely the impact these indicators will have on the Bank of England’s forthcoming decisions. Over the next few days, some of the most important economic data from the UK and the US will further indicate the health of each economy as well as the path of their respective currencies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is exhibiting a bounce approaching the 1.3300 level of resistance indicating new buying interest following recent losses. The duo finds support from major moving averages, which have begun to slope and potentially trend upwards, signaling a change in momentum. Traders, however, need to observe confirmation of a break above this level, with the failure to do so prompting a retest of support levels around 1.3200. Overall, technical indicators suggest cautious optimism, with price action being closely related to forthcoming economic data releases. FORECAST If the UK Q1 GDP figures affirm more robust than anticipated growth, it has the potential to lend a big boost to the British Pound, moving GBP/USD into the region above 1.3300. Encouraging economic news could motivate investors to be more bullish on the Pound, aided in turn by a further softening of the US Dollar in response to ongoing trade-related uncertainty. Moreover, if the next UK factory figures and pay trends also improve, the Bank of England might keep a more aggressive stance, which would provide further bullish impetus to the currency pair. On the flip side, disappointing UK economic releases or indications the labor market is depreciating further might put downward pressure on the Pound and result in GBP/USD retracing towards important support zones near 1.3200. Additionally, if the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures are stronger than anticipated, they can revive rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve or cap the losses of the dollar to place pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Traders also have to watch out for unexpected changes in global trade sentiment that lower risk appetite and cause the US Dollar to appreciate as a safe-haven currency.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Fails to Hold Key Resistance of 1.3303 on Mixed Technical Indicators

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  • May 6, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair is trading near 1.3300 levels, with short-term momentum neutral as it moves close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still greater than 50, a sign that the bullish tendency still lingers. A breakout above the near-term resistance at 1.3303 would set the stage for a push up to the psychological level of 1.3400 and higher. But a failure to hold above the present levels would bring attention on the downside, with the 50-day EMA level of 1.3054 being the critical level of support. A break below this level would precipitate further losses down to the April and March lows, indicating a potential change in medium-term sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • A clear breakout above the nine-day EMA would reinforce short-term positive momentum and set the stage for a challenge of 1.3400. • A fall below this mark might signal diminishing medium-term momentum and would leave the pair vulnerable to further declines. • This remains to indicate a bullish bias, but any fall below this level may see sentiment move to neutral or bearish. • The key resistance at 1.3445 (April high) and support at 1.2708 (April low) and 1.2577 (March low) are still important for assessing the broader directional trends. GBP/USD pair is at a decisive point, trading around the 1.3300 level with near-term resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3303. The breakdown above this level may boost short-term bullish strength, pushing the pair to the psychological 1.3400 level and April high of 1.3445. But if the pair fails to break higher, it could trigger fresh selling pressure, especially if it plummets below the 50-day EMA of 1.3054, a major medium-term support. Even with the 14-day RSI holding above 50, bearish sentiment remains in view for now, although traders need to keep a close eye on price movements near these technical levels for more definitive directional signals. GBP/USD remains around 1.3300, resisting at the nine-day EMA level of 1.3303. A breakout may reach 1.3400, and support at 1.3054 continues to be important in keeping the bullish momentum intact. The RSI value above 50 continues to indicate a bullish bias. • GBP/USD remains around 1.3300 in the Asian session, indicating consolidation after the recent rise. • The nine-day EMA level of 1.3303 is the initial important resistance level. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting underlying bullish momentum. • A break above 1.3303 may see a test of 1.3400 and potentially the April high of 1.3445. • Initial support is at the 50-day EMA of 1.3054, a key level for medium-term momentum. • A break below 1.3054 may see the pair fall to the April low of 1.2708 and the March low of 1.2577. • The short-term trend is still neutral, waiting for a clear break above resistance or below support to determine direction. GBP/USD currency pair continues to remain stable around the 1.3300 level, showing cautious optimism among traders. Market players are still keen on observing wider economic trends and policy cues from both the US and the UK, which may determine the next leg of the currency pair’s trajectory. Faith in the British economy, along with prevailing expectations regarding interest rate moves, is crucial in sustaining the pair’s present tone. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical events, inflation reports, and central bank rhetoric, all of which drive broad market sentiment. The GBP/USD is still responsive to changes in risk appetite and macroeconomic direction, with traders looking for clarity before taking firm directional positions. Stability in both economies and policy clarity in the near term will be critical in deciding the pair’s next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is steady as investors look towards overall economic and geopolitical trends that may shape market sentiment. Issues like forthcoming economic releases, policies by central banks, and worldwide risk appetite are dominating investor expectations. Investors are remaining wary and waiting for stronger indications from the UK as well as the US economies before taking stronger stances. Consequently, the currency pair remains trading in a relatively stable range, indicating a wait-and-see attitude in global financial markets. FORECAST If market sentiment continues to be positive and economic indicators in the UK remain resilient, the GBP/USD pair may pick up momentum and move above key resistance levels. A continued rise could move the pair toward the psychological barrier of 1.3400, with additional potential to touch the recent high around 1.3445. Favorable news like improved UK GDP growth, softening U.S. inflation, or dovish tones from the Federal Reserve are all potential drivers of further strength in the pair. Conversely, if the pair fails to hold support or if the bearish news arises—e.g., poor UK economic data, increasing U.S. yields, or escalated geopolitical tensions—GBP/USD may once again face pressure. A fall below key support levels would set the stage for a movement towards 1.3050 and progressively test lower ranges witnessed earlier in the months, e.g., 1.2708 or even 1.2577. Any move in the direction of a more hawkish U.S. monetary policy would also hit the pound hard, making further downside even more likely.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Firm Near Multi-Month Highs Amid Fed-BoE Policy Divergence and USD Caution

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  • March 21, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair remains firm near multi-month highs around the mid-1.2900s, resolute in the face of a modest appreciation in the US Dollar. Though the Greenback does get some help from safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy, the contrasting monetary policy direction between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England supports the British Pound. As the Fed is likely to reduce rates several times this year and the BoE is hinting at a more dovish stance, the broad inclination for GBP/USD is skewed to the higher side. Lacking any significant economic data releases, price action will probably remain range-bound, although any retracement may offer buying chances, leaving the pair on course to record a third straight weekly gain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Still holding firm above the mid-1.2900s despite intraday volatility, the pair remains near the multi-month high at over 1.3000 recorded on Thursday. • The Bank of England’s dovish approach to rate cuts is in contrast to the Fed’s expected easing, providing sustained support to the Pound. • The Greenback makes minor gains from multi-month lows on the back of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over trade tariffs, but upside is still capped. • Without any significant economic releases on Friday, GBP/USD is likely to be guided by USD dynamics and overall market sentiment, leaving the pair skewed to the upside. The GBP/USD pair remains stuck close to multi-month highs, stabilizing above the 1.2950 mark and within touching distance of the psychological level of 1.3000 touched on Thursday. The action of the pair is still heavily dictated by varying monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has stuck to its rate cut forecast for 2025 and upgraded its inflation forecast, the BoE has been more conservative, indicating reduced rate cuts in the future. This policy divergence supports the British Pound, although a modest rebound in the US Dollar — fueled by geopolitical tensions and trade tariff uncertainty — limits the upside. With minimal economic data on the calendar, the emphasis is on general market sentiment and USD dynamics, which maintains the path of least resistance slightly favorable for the bulls. GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2950, within striking distance of the multi-month high around 1.3000 in the face of diverging Fed-BoE policy expectations. Although a marginal USD recovery caps upside, the Pound finds support in bets for delayed BoE rate cuts. Lacking in major data releases, USD motion and sentiment will shape short-term direction. • GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2950, remaining near the multi-month high breached above 1.3000 yesterday. • Failure of distinct intraday direction, with the pair ranging narrowly in and about the 1.2960 area in the Asian session. • Limited USD reversal from multi-month lows serves as short-term cap on additional GBP/USD upside. • Fed leaves rate cut forecasts in 2025 unchanged, but inflation fears and uncertainty on trade tariffs provide support to the US Dollar. • BoE indicates a reduced rate cut pace, providing relative strength to the British Pound in the face of differing monetary policies. • No significant economic data releases from the UK or US on Friday, maintaining attention on general sentiment and USD dynamics. • GBP/USD set for a third straight weekly gain, with any pullbacks expected to be viewed as buying opportunities by traders. The GBP/USD currency pair remains a mirror of the general macroeconomic climate influenced by divergent central bank policy and sentiment globally. The Bank of England’s conservative approach to rate cuts, coupled with its revision of inflation expectations higher, indicates a more hawkish stance relative to other major central banks. This has given the British Pound a sense of underlying support, particularly as the market readjusts around monetary easing timelines. Conversely, the Federal Reserve’s consistent prediction of rate cuts for 2025, supported by increasing US trade uncertainty and inflation worries, introduces a degree of complication into the wider outlook. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Moreover, the lack of significant economic data releases has led the market to focus more on sentiment-driven influences and policy divergence themes. Investors are also carefully observing the international geopolitical environment, particularly possible trade policy shifts in the US, which will impact currency markets more broadly. Under such conditions, investor interest is focused on how central banks react to inflation trends and economic events in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains stuck in a consolidative range following a recent probe of the pivotal psychological resistance at the 1.3000 level. The pair remains supported above the 1.2950 level, reflecting underlying bulls, with buying interest evident on minor declines. A break and hold above 1.3000 would make way for more upside in the near term, while any retracement might encounter initial support near the 1.2900-1.2920 range. The broader direction is still positive as long as the pair is above key moving averages and has higher lows on the chart. FORECAST As long as bullish sentiment prevails and the Pound is upheld by the Bank of England’s relatively hawkish policy, GBP/USD may target a firm breakout above the psychological 1.3000 level. A continued break above this hurdle could initiate new buying interest, driving the pair towards the next resistance levels of 1.3050 and 1.3100 in the near term. Favorable UK economic news over the next few weeks or any indication of a delay in the Fed’s rate-cut schedule could further boost the upside momentum. Conversely, if the US Dollar strengthens further on safe-haven demand or better-than-expected US data, then GBP/USD can face pressure. A break below the 1.2950 support level may result in a correction lower with the next significant support at 1.2900 followed by 1.2840. Any dovish hint from the BoE or change in global risk appetite may boost downhill movement and leave bulls on the defensive in the near term.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Tops Four-Month High as US Dollar Loses Ground to Cooling Inflation, Rising Economic Concerns

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  • March 13, 2025
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The GBP/USD rate hit a four-month high of 1.2989 on March 13 amid a sustained rise as the US Dollar comes under pressure following declining US inflation and increasing economic concerns. The recent decline in US inflation, combined with hopes of possible rate cuts by the Fed, has undermined the Greenback, lifting the British Pound. In the meantime, the UK economy is not without its problems, with falling housing prices and a muted outlook from the Bank of England. In spite of these issues, hopes for UK-US trade talks and hopes for persistently higher interest rates have supported the Pound. Investors are now looking to forthcoming US economic statistics and UK GDP data to further assess the prospects of both economies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Deterioration in US inflation is expected to raise hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates earlier than expected, which will soften the US Dollar. • The GBP/USD pair continues to push higher, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar comes under pressure with rising fears of recession. •  The RICS Housing Price Balance dropped to 11% in February, signaling ongoing weakness in the UK housing market amid broader economic uncertainty. • Expectations of sustained high interest rates in the UK are supporting the Pound, as traders scale back earlier forecasts for aggressive easing by the BoE. The GBP/USD pair is holding steady near four-month highs, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar faces significant pressure. The recent dip in US inflation, with headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in the near future, pressuring the Greenback. In contrast, the UK economy is struggling, led by a drop in house prices, but the British Pound is being cushioned by increased hopes that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates in place for a longer time. With fears of a possible US recession and continued tariff uncertainty, the Pound is strengthening as investors await future economic data, such as the US Producer Price Index and UK GDP, for further market guidance. GBP/USD remains strong near four-month highs as the US Dollar weakens on cooling inflation, fueling expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK’s economic outlook faces pressure from a declining housing market, but optimism around sustained Bank of England rates supports the Pound. • The GBP/USD pair reached 1.2989 on March 13, maintaining strength amid a weaker US Dollar. • US February inflation data revealed a trend of cooling, with both headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, lowering the chances of additional rate hikes. • Expectations in markets are increasing that the Federal Reserve is likely to trim interest rates in the near future because of the downtrend in inflation and possible economic concerns. • The Greenback is also subjected to further headwinds as fears of a US recession persist, putting further pressure on the US Dollar. • The UK housing sector was weak, with the Residential Market Survey recording a second successive fall in the Housing Price Balance to 11% in February. • The UK 10-year gilt yield rose, indicating expectations that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates for longer. • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was optimistic that the UK would not face US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which augured well for UK-US trade relations. The GBP/USD currency pair has been trending upwards, hitting a four-month high, indicating a positive sentiment for the British Pound. This change arrives as the US Dollar is increasingly under pressure, much of which stems from inflation and general economic concerns in the United States. As US inflation appeared to be easing, speculation grew that the Federal Reserve would soon decide to cut interest rates, which has further undermined the Greenback. In the meantime, the UK is working through its own economic woes, but the Pound is continuing to find favor, in part because it is expected that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates higher for longer. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView As the UK works through uncertainty in its housing market, where falling housing prices have been seen in recent months, there is cause for hope when it comes to trade with the US. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shown faith that the nation would be spared tariffs on aluminum and steel via ongoing negotiations, which has allowed for a slightly more optimistic note in the market. As attention turns to pending economic data points, such as the UK GDP reports and more information regarding US inflation, prospects for both currencies remain tied to changing economic updates. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has been in a strong bullish trend, closely following its four-month highs, with the pair repeatedly holding above the 1.2950 level. The recent escalation to 1.2989 indicates that the Pound is picking up pace, helped by the declining US Dollar. Important support is around 1.2900, while resistance is at 1.3000, where the pair is likely to encounter some consolidation before breaking higher. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate bullish sentiment, although traders will watch closely for any pullbacks or overbought signals. As market players wait for new economic releases, these technical levels will be important in deciding the pair’s next direction. FORECAST The GBP/USD currency pair is expected to extend its bullish run, helped by a weakening US Dollar and expectation of the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in the immediate future. The Pound can continue to push towards the psychological 1.3000 resistance level if it holds its strength above crucial support levels, around 1.2950. The optimism in the market about the UK’s trade talks with the US and the Bank of England’s hardline on interest rates should give further support to the British currency. A move above 1.3000 would potentially lead to further advances, targeting the 1.3050 to 1.3100 region, if economic numbers out of the UK remain resilient. On the

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Continues as Crucial Support Levels Remain Unbroken

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  • February 25, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair continues to uphold its bullish trend, trading above the 1.2600 support level and still within an upward channel pattern. Technical analysis, such as the 14-day RSI at more than 50 and the price still above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, supports the short-term rising trend. Abrupt resistance is at 1.2690, the two-month high, with an additional target to the upside at 1.2811 and conceivably 1.2960 should the uptrend bias intensify. To the downside, support is found at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), with a break below these potentially causing a drop toward 1.2490, the lower end of the rising channel. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is confronted with short-term resistance at the two-month high of 1.2690; a break above might propel the pair to 1.2811 and beyond. • The nine-day EMA of 1.2597 is crucial short-term support; a fall below might undermine momentum, resulting in a possible fall to 1.2490. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum and making further gains more likely if the trend continues. • The duo trades in an uptrend channel, with the price action on the side of further gains unless a breakdown at the lower edge at 1.2490 happens. GBP/USD pair remains in its bullish momentum, staying above the 1.2600 support level while trending in an ascending channel pattern. The pair meets short-term resistance at 1.2690, a two-month high, with additional room for further upside to 1.2811 and 1.2960 if the bullish momentum continues. Key support levels to look out for are 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a break below these levels may result in a fall towards 1.2490, the lower end of the channel. The 14-day RSI level above 50 confirms further uptrend, strengthening strong short-term price action and suggesting scope for further rises. GBP/USD currency pair continues with its upward strength, staying above 1.2600 support in an upward channel. The resistance is at 1.2690, while the support is at 1.2597. Above-50 RSI of the 14-day period indicates strength to continue, with potential to move further upwards if the trend continues. • GBP/USD is still in an uptrend channel, keeping gains above 1.2600 support. • Breaking above this two-month high has the potential to send the pair up to 1.2811 and above. • The nine-day EMA is the initial support, then 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and 1.2490. • Shows bullish strength, meaning the pair can continue its rise. • Price is above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, ensuring short-term bullish momentum. • If the resistance levels are broken, the pair could head to the upper edge of the channel. • A fall below 1.2490 may douse the bullish sentiment and create a reversal. GBP/USD currency pair remains to show resilience in the market, underpinned by a stable trading scenario. Investor sentiment towards the British pound continues to be positive, fueled by general economic circumstances and market sentiments. The currency pair shows a steady trend, mirroring the continued economic engagement between the UK and the US. Traders are following closely major developments such as monetary policies, inflation figures, and economic indicators that could affect long-term price action. Market participants are still active, evaluating possible opportunities while monitoring overall macroeconomic trends. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA GBP/USD is still the area of interest for investors and traders who want stability and growth. As the overall economic environment changes, trade relations, central bank policy, and geopolitics become major contributors to market dynamics. The capacity of the pair to maintain momentum showcases the equilibrium between demand and supply, as well as the faith in each economy. Market trends are still being watched by traders, making adjustments in their strategies according to economic analysis and sector developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bullish framework, trading in an ascending channel pattern and above critical support levels. 14-day RSI is still above 50, which signals ongoing positive momentum, and the pair remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, confirming short-term strength. Short-term resistance is at 1.2690, with additional upside targets of 1.2811 and 1.2960 in case bullish momentum continues. On the negative side, major support levels are at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a possible pullback to 1.2490 if there is increased selling pressure. Overall, technical indicators point towards an extension of the uptrend unless major support levels are breached. FORECAST GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bullish outlook, with a possibility of extending gains if it breaks above major resistance levels. Successful breakout of 1.2690 would take the pair up towards 1.2811, the three-month high, followed by the ceiling of the upward channel at 1.2960. The pair continues to be sustained by robust short-term moving averages, supporting the chance of more up movement. On the expectation of favorable market mood, given stability in economics and a weak US dollar, GBP/USD is likely to maintain its strength with increased buying appetite. GBP/USD is at risk of going lower if it is unable to maintain above important support levels. Breaking below 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) may weaken the near-term trend, which can result in a possible test of 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and further to 1.2490, the lower limit of the rising channel. In the event of intensified selling pressure on account of unforeseen macroeconomic developments or a change in market sentiment, the pair may move lower, testing lower supports. A move below 1.2490 can confirm a stronger correction, flipping the near-term bias to bearish.

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