Bitcoin Resists Below $81K: Long-Term Investors Indicate Market Strength Amidst Liquidity Downturn
In spite of a reduction in on-chain and futures market liquidity, Bitcoin is holding firm above the $81,000 level, indicating that the market has not yet reached a bearish trend. As per Glassnode’s recent report, although short-term holders have accumulated over $7 billion in extended losses—the longest drawdown duration in the present cycle—long-term holders are still sitting on their gains, indicating sustained faith in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. With less trading appetite, decreased exchange inflows, and a sharp decline in futures open interest, the market is seeing a short-term contraction instead of an outright downtrend, indicating the potential for another rally in the later part of this year. KEY LOOKOUTS • On-chain as well as futures market liquidity has fallen substantially, with Bitcoin exchange inflows decreasing more than 54% and futures open interest falling by 35%, indicating decreased market participation. • Short-term investors have incurred over $7 billion of losses, representing the longest drawdown in this cycle, which is a sign of capitulation by new investors. • Even in the case of market corrections, long-term investors are still holding onto gains and have not indicated any sign of bulk profit-taking—a good indicator that the market has not moved into a bearish category. • Bitcoin continues in its consolidation phase of $80,000–$83,000 with extreme volatility based on diminished liquidity but without a visible bearish reversal in sight. The market behavior of Bitcoin today gives us a confusing yet optimistic scenario. Though on-chain activity as well as futures markets have shrunk significantly in liquidity, with exchange inflows and open interest plummeting sharply, Bitcoin is still trading firmly above the $81,000 threshold. The pressure is largely being taken in by short-term holders who have experienced more than $7 billion in persistent losses—pointing towards a long stretch of capitulation by newer investors. Long-term holders, though, continue to be unruffled, retaining their gains and hinting no mass selling. This resilience demonstrates that even while in the short-term there will be volatility and little fresh influxes of capital, the market as yet hasn’t entered the phase of the bear and even possible bullish runup is ahead of us. Bitcoin is steady at over $81,000 even as liquidity and futures market activity plummeted sharply. Although short-term holders are suffering significant losses, long-term holders are still sitting on gains, indicating that the market has not yet entered a bearish trend. • Bitcoin is still above $81,000, even with lower on-chain and futures market liquidity. • On-chain exchange inflows have fallen more than 54%, indicating weaker market activity and less trading appetite. • Open interest in futures has decreased by 35%, reflecting diminished speculative interest and capital flow. • Short-term holders have lost $7 billion, which is the longest loss-taking period in this cycle of the market. • Hot Supply (less than a week of BTC being held) has decreased by more than 50%, reflecting less short-term trading activity. • Long-term holders still hold onto gains, reflecting sustained confidence and no indication of widespread sell-offs. • Data from Glassnode indicates the market is consolidating and not entering a bear cycle, with potential for future bull action. Bitcoin remains strong in the market as it maintains a strong position above the $81,000 level. Regardless of continuing fluctuations in trading activity, there is no clear indication that the market is in a downtrend. One of the most heartening indicators is the faith demonstrated by long-term holders, as they continue to hold assets and profits. Their consistent action portrays belief in Bitcoin’s long-term future despite periodic sluggish movement in the market. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the other hand, newer investors seem to be facing more pressure, leading to some exits from the market. However, this hasn’t significantly affected the overall market sentiment. The absence of large sell-offs from experienced holders suggests that confidence in Bitcoin remains strong. Instead of seeing this as a downturn, the current situation can be viewed as a phase of calm before the next big move, with the market still showing signs of healthy consolidation. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is in the process of consolidating around the $80,000 to $83,000 levels, which reflects a period of stabilization of the market following recent instability. The lateral movement reflects an accumulation phase during which buyers and sellers are striking a temporary balance. The failure to experience a significant breakout or breakdown indicates that the market awaits a catalyst that will determine the next direction of the market. Critical resistance and support points within this range are being monitored, as a clean breakout above or below either level would indicate a possible trend reversal in the near future or in weeks to come. FORECAST Bitcoin continues to have good upside potential if sentiment in the markets improves and new capital starts entering the system. A penetration above the $83,000 resistance level could be followed by a fresh rally to its highs. If long-term investors remain confident and new buyers return to the market, Bitcoin can regain its momentum and move towards higher levels in the next few months. Favorable macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, or a change in market confidence can also act as triggers for the next leg up. On the negative side, if liquidity continues to tighten and investor appetite remains weak, Bitcoin can come under more pressure. A fall below the key support level of $80,000 could see short-term panic selling, particularly from newer investors. This may result in an interim fall before the market stabilizes once more. But until long-term holders start selling in large quantities, a severe bearish period is unlikely, even if small corrections are experienced along the way.
