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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC Seeks $120K as Institutional Flows and Fed Rate Cut Speculations Support Recovery

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  • September 13, 2025
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Bitcoin prolonged its two-week rebound this week, finding stability at $115,000 as tremendous institutional flows of $1.7 billion and fresh corporate buying from entities such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet sustained hopes. Market mood was also boosted by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with traders even factoring in the likelihood of a bigger 50 bps cut. On-chain analytics revealed all-time-high stablecoin reserves on Binance, indicating robust liquidity and possible buying capability, while technicals indicate space for BTC to probe the $120,000 psychological level if key supports remain intact. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets largely anticipate a 25 bps rate reduction, with minor probabilities of 50 bps; the result may significantly impact BTC’s next direction. • Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.7 billion inflows, highest since mid-July; sustained demand could solidify BTC’s revival. • Binance stablecoin reserves reached a record of $39 billion, indicating robust potential buying capacity that might drive further growth. • BTC needs to stay above $113,000 support and overcome $116,000 resistance in order to move up towards the pivotal $120,000 psychological level. Bitcoin is continuing its rebounding push, trading close to $115,000 as institutional buying and fresh corporate buying add to investor morale. Hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut early next week, as well as record-breaking stablecoin holdings on Binance, are driving risk-on and liquidity support for further gains. If Bitcoin holds its current price above key support areas and overcomes near-term resistance, the price may continue its rally towards the significant $120,000 psychological level in the next few days. Bitcoin remains firm at levels around $115,000 as it is buoyed by $1.7 billion worth of ETF inflows and fresh corporate buying. With Fed rate cut expectations supporting market mood, BTC may rally to the $120,000 level if resistance zones are overcome. • Bitcoin is trading around $115,000, continuing its two-week reversal with almost 4% weekly increases. • Institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs hit $1.7 billion, a record since mid-July. • MicroStrategy and Metaplanet have added more BTC to their holdings, solidifying corporate demand. • Markets now price in full 25 bps Fed rate cut, a 7.3% probability of a 50 bps cut. • Binance stablecoin reserves reach an all-time high at $39 billion, which is a strong indicator of buying power. • Technicals indicate that BTC is holding above support at $113,000 and resistance at $116,000. • Should momentum persist, the $120,000 psychological level may be tested by BTC in the near future. Bitcoin’s rebound gained steam this week as high institutional and corporate interest revived market confidence. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.7 billion inflows as they post their third straight week of gains and reflect on renewed large investor demand. Large institutions such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet also increased their stakes, indicating ongoing belief in Bitcoin as a store of value. Institutional buying captured in this institutional wave is a sign of increased confidence in digital assets, particularly in a time of easing inflationary pressures in the US economy. BITCOIN DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut contributed to the bullish sentiment in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Weaker labor market statistics and deflating producer prices underpinned hopes the Fed will loosen policy, something investors view as a positive environment for Bitcoin. The confluence of new inflows, robust liquidity from stablecoin reserves, and accommodative macro conditions has established a bullish backdrop for BTC that continues to keep participants upbeat about further gains in the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin displays signs of extended recovery after the price recaptured the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $113,112 a few days ago. The daily chart indicates resistance near $116,000, a price that BTC needs to close above in order to further solidify its momentum towards the psychological level at $120,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 56, indicating growing bullish momentum, while the MACD indicator continues to indicate a bullish crossover, inferring additional upside as long as support levels remain intact. FORECAST If Bitcoin continues to hold above the $113,000 support and manages to breach the resistance at $116,000 successfully, it may move higher towards the important psychological level of $120,000. Insatiable institutional inflows, all-time high stablecoin reserves, and favorable macroeconomic factors like expectations of Fed rate cuts offer a positive environment for further rallies in the short term. A decisive close above $120,000 could even pave the way for BTC to challenge higher levels later this month. Meanwhile, inability to maintain above the $113,000 support level would unleash fresh selling pressure, pulling BTC back towards the $111,000 short-term holder cost basis or even the $107,429 July low. Market reservations, continuous downside hedging in options, and a weak stabilization trend observed by Glassnode indicate risks of correction persist. Traders would observe closely for a change in sentiment or declining inflows, which may impact BTC’s short-term trend.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Resists Below $81K: Long-Term Investors Indicate Market Strength Amidst Liquidity Downturn

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  • March 19, 2025
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In spite of a reduction in on-chain and futures market liquidity, Bitcoin is holding firm above the $81,000 level, indicating that the market has not yet reached a bearish trend. As per Glassnode’s recent report, although short-term holders have accumulated over $7 billion in extended losses—the longest drawdown duration in the present cycle—long-term holders are still sitting on their gains, indicating sustained faith in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. With less trading appetite, decreased exchange inflows, and a sharp decline in futures open interest, the market is seeing a short-term contraction instead of an outright downtrend, indicating the potential for another rally in the later part of this year. KEY LOOKOUTS • On-chain as well as futures market liquidity has fallen substantially, with Bitcoin exchange inflows decreasing more than 54% and futures open interest falling by 35%, indicating decreased market participation. • Short-term investors have incurred over $7 billion of losses, representing the longest drawdown in this cycle, which is a sign of capitulation by new investors. • Even in the case of market corrections, long-term investors are still holding onto gains and have not indicated any sign of bulk profit-taking—a good indicator that the market has not moved into a bearish category. • Bitcoin continues in its consolidation phase of $80,000–$83,000 with extreme volatility based on diminished liquidity but without a visible bearish reversal in sight. The market behavior of Bitcoin today gives us a confusing yet optimistic scenario. Though on-chain activity as well as futures markets have shrunk significantly in liquidity, with exchange inflows and open interest plummeting sharply, Bitcoin is still trading firmly above the $81,000 threshold. The pressure is largely being taken in by short-term holders who have experienced more than $7 billion in persistent losses—pointing towards a long stretch of capitulation by newer investors. Long-term holders, though, continue to be unruffled, retaining their gains and hinting no mass selling. This resilience demonstrates that even while in the short-term there will be volatility and little fresh influxes of capital, the market as yet hasn’t entered the phase of the bear and even possible bullish runup is ahead of us. Bitcoin is steady at over $81,000 even as liquidity and futures market activity plummeted sharply. Although short-term holders are suffering significant losses, long-term holders are still sitting on gains, indicating that the market has not yet entered a bearish trend. • Bitcoin is still above $81,000, even with lower on-chain and futures market liquidity. • On-chain exchange inflows have fallen more than 54%, indicating weaker market activity and less trading appetite. • Open interest in futures has decreased by 35%, reflecting diminished speculative interest and capital flow. • Short-term holders have lost $7 billion, which is the longest loss-taking period in this cycle of the market. • Hot Supply (less than a week of BTC being held) has decreased by more than 50%, reflecting less short-term trading activity. • Long-term holders still hold onto gains, reflecting sustained confidence and no indication of widespread sell-offs. • Data from Glassnode indicates the market is consolidating and not entering a bear cycle, with potential for future bull action. Bitcoin remains strong in the market as it maintains a strong position above the $81,000 level. Regardless of continuing fluctuations in trading activity, there is no clear indication that the market is in a downtrend. One of the most heartening indicators is the faith demonstrated by long-term holders, as they continue to hold assets and profits. Their consistent action portrays belief in Bitcoin’s long-term future despite periodic sluggish movement in the market. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the other hand, newer investors seem to be facing more pressure, leading to some exits from the market. However, this hasn’t significantly affected the overall market sentiment. The absence of large sell-offs from experienced holders suggests that confidence in Bitcoin remains strong. Instead of seeing this as a downturn, the current situation can be viewed as a phase of calm before the next big move, with the market still showing signs of healthy consolidation. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is in the process of consolidating around the $80,000 to $83,000 levels, which reflects a period of stabilization of the market following recent instability. The lateral movement reflects an accumulation phase during which buyers and sellers are striking a temporary balance. The failure to experience a significant breakout or breakdown indicates that the market awaits a catalyst that will determine the next direction of the market. Critical resistance and support points within this range are being monitored, as a clean breakout above or below either level would indicate a possible trend reversal in the near future or in weeks to come. FORECAST Bitcoin continues to have good upside potential if sentiment in the markets improves and new capital starts entering the system. A penetration above the $83,000 resistance level could be followed by a fresh rally to its highs. If long-term investors remain confident and new buyers return to the market, Bitcoin can regain its momentum and move towards higher levels in the next few months. Favorable macroeconomic conditions, institutional demand, or a change in market confidence can also act as triggers for the next leg up. On the negative side, if liquidity continues to tighten and investor appetite remains weak, Bitcoin can come under more pressure. A fall below the key support level of $80,000 could see short-term panic selling, particularly from newer investors. This may result in an interim fall before the market stabilizes once more. But until long-term holders start selling in large quantities, a severe bearish period is unlikely, even if small corrections are experienced along the way.

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Bitcoin Price Forecast BTC Rebounds Above $97K Ahead of US CPI Data Release
Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Rebounds Above $97K Ahead of US CPI Data Release

Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a strong rebound, trading above $97,000 on Wednesday after testing the critical psychological level of $90,000 earlier this week. This price rebound comes as traders prepare for potential volatility ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Soft inflation data, such as the latest US Producer Price Index report, has triggered a renewed appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin. Investors are keenly watching the CPI data since it could impact the future interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. Key Lookouts •  Bitcoin rebounded, trading above $97,000, after testing the $90,000 psychological level early this week on expectations of more volatility before US CPI data. •  The US Producer Price Index came in softer than expected, giving a boost to risk assets, including Bitcoin and pausing a rise in US Treasury bond yields. •  Analysts expect potential expansionary policies under Donald Trump, including tax cuts, which could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the coming months. •  Bitcoin’s technical indicators are showing bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above neutral and the MACD nearing a bullish crossover, signaling potential further price increases. Recent inflation data, especially the US Producer Price Index for December, which indicated a slower-than-expected increase in wholesale inflation, has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s price action. This has again brought renewed interest in risk assets like Bitcoin, hinting at the possibility of softer inflation and possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Softer inflation might alleviate some fears over rising interest rates and will provide a relatively better environment for Bitcoin to sustain its recovery process. As the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due to be published, any signal of lower inflation might add strength to the upward pressure on Bitcoin. Here are some of the important factors that make Bitcoin’s price action and its probable future movements in the market so interesting: •  Bitcoin recovered strongly, rising above $97,000 after retesting the critical level on $90,000 last week. It may potentially enable more price appreciation. •  Traders remain on high alert ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index data, which could have a profound impact on Bitcoin’s price action. • The softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December has improved the appetite of investors for risk assets such as Bitcoin, with hope that the inflation might have already peaked and interest rates might be cut by the Federal Reserve. •  If the inflation data is within expectations, then the Federal Reserve may relax on its stance for interest rates, which can help in creating a more favorable environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets. •  A report from K33 Research indicates that the expected expansionary economic policies of former President Donald Trump, including extending tax cuts and relief for working-class Americans, could positively impact risk assets like Bitcoin in the future. •  Bitcoin has shown an increasing correlation with traditional equity markets, especially the Nasdaq, reflecting broader market sentiment and making Bitcoin more sensitive to movements in the stock market. • Rising US 10-year Treasury bond yields and a strengthening US Dollar have squeezed Bitcoin’s price, which tumbled below $90,000 earlier this week before rebounding. • On the technical front, Bitcoin shows positive momentum: its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well above neutral and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive and rising, signaling an upward trajectory if the price continues to move upwards. •  If Bitcoin can hold the recovery and close above $100,000, it could aim for a retest of its all-time high near $108,353. However, support is likely around $85,000 if the market correction continues. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, especially the Nasdaq, has been increasing in recent months. As shown in the latest K33 Research report, Bitcoin has been trending in sync with the equity markets for the most part, especially in the event of market corrections. Treasury bonds and the US Dollar have recently exerted pressure on Bitcoin, sending it below $90,000. However, Bitcoin managed to rebound since then, which means most of the investor sentiment still remains positive for the digital asset. BTC/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Jacob The correlation of Bitcoin with the traditional financial markets, especially Nasdaq, has been rising lately. As has been observed from a recent report by K33 Research, Bitcoin has moved in tandem more with the trends of the overall equity market especially during periods of volatility. Pressure from rising Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar has seen Bitcoin fall to below the $90,000 mark recently. However, Bitcoin has since rebounded, which indicates that investor sentiment towards the digital asset remains largely positive despite external pressures. Technical Analysis Bitcoin is currently exhibiting bullish momentum and trading above $97,000. The Relative Strength Index is at 52, which is an indication of growing upward pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is near a bullish crossover, meaning the price might go up. Immediate resistance is around $100,000, with a break above this level targeting the all-time high of $108,353. Key support lies around $90,000 and further near $85,000 if the price faces any correction. Support and Resistance Forecast The primary support area is at around $90,000, a major psychological level which previously had provided a bounce in the past. It’s expected that, if the price breaks below this level, the main next support would be at $85,000, which might help limit declines further. A sustained move below $85,000 may indicate deeper bearish momentum towards $80,000, thus becoming significant levels to determine the price action of the Bitcoin in its short term and may be directing the purpose of any potential recovery process. The immediate resistance for Bitcoin is at the $100,000 level, which is a psychological barrier. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, the next significant resistance is seen near the all-time high of $108,353. A breakout above this level could push Bitcoin toward new highs, potentially targeting $115,000

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