Forex Trading Tools and Services

Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Institutional Appetite and Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Power BTC Rebound Towards $120K

  • BY
  • September 6, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Bitcoin rebounded almost 4% this week, rising back towards $112,000 as solid institutional flows and increasing corporate uptake helped stabilize downside pressure. Investor sentiment firmed following softer US labor market numbers lifted rate-cut hopes at the Federal Reserve, which may help support risk assets such as BTC further. With more than $400 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies like Metaplanet and CIMG building reserves, institutional demand continues to be the primary driver. Yet, traders are cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may define the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory and determine the direction for Bitcoin’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report might affect rate-cut expectations directly, impacting BTC’s momentum. • Ongoing flows into Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buying are pivotal in maintaining price gains. • BTC has to stay above $110,750 support and overcome $116,000–$117,400 resistance to continue gains towards $120K. • Crypto Fear & Greed Index recovery into neutral indicates bearish pressure easing, though caution is advisable amidst conflicting momentum signals. Bitcoin has mounted a steady recovery this week, recouping almost 4% to trade at about $112,000 as institutional buying and corporate uptake continue to underpin price action. Sentiment on possible Federal Reserve rate cuts, after softer US labor market data, has also helped drive risk-on sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $400 million in inflows, with companies like Metaplanet and CIMG increasing their BTC holdings, highlighting increased confidence from institutional investors. Traders are still cautious, however, ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may give new hints on the policy direction of the Fed and establish the tone for Bitcoin’s next significant movement. Bitcoin recovered almost 4% this week to trade at around $112,000, backed by firm ETF inflows and business buying. Weaker US labor data supported Fed rate-cut hopes, although traders are waiting for the NFP report for new direction. • Weaker US labor data lifted hopes for September rate cuts, supporting BTC’s bounce. • Jobs data on Friday may determine the next significant directional move for BTC. • Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $406 million in inflows during the week, indicating strong demand. • Companies such as Metaplanet and CIMG increased Bitcoin reserves, upholding long-term support. • Important supports are at $107,429 and $110,750, with resistance between $116,000–$120,000. • Recovery of Fear & Greed Index to 48 indicates weakening bearish pressure and neutral sentiment. • Global appetite for risk and performance of USD continue to play key roles in determining BTC momentum. Bitcoin’s rally during the week was largely driven by institutional and corporate buying, which continues to cement its position as a long-term investment vehicle. Over $400 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs registered for the second consecutive week of gains, and bluechip companies such as Metaplanet and CIMG added to reserves. These strategic buys reflect increasing faith in Bitcoin as a treasury holding and underscore the expanding acceptance of the cryptocurrency among traditional financial institutions. Meanwhile, a study by River uncovered that BTC is among the largest daily purchasers of Bitcoin by treasury companies, with companies investing significantly more than a token portion of their revenues into the asset, which reflects increasing grassroots adoption. BITCOIN DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView At the macroeconomic level, hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to the bull run, as deteriorating US labor market numbers strengthened the argument for less monetary tightening. The scenario has enhanced the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a store of value, particularly as traditional fiat currencies come under growing pressure. Adding to the optimism, voices such as Ray Dalio stressed crypto as a sound money with controlled supply versus debt-bloated fiat systems. As the Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved back into neutral levels, investor sentiment appears to be stabilizing, indicating that market participants are slowly regaining confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin regained steam after rebounding from its weekly low close to $107,429 and is currently trading around $112,000. BTC on the 4-hour chart broke out above a downtrend line a while back during the week and is presently indicating bullish strength with the backing of a bullish RSI reading above 50 and a possible MACD bullish crossover. The chart for the day indicates that BTC was trading above its 100-day EMA at $110,753, confirming its short-term strength. As long as the rise persists, the near-term resistance would be around $116,000–$117,400, whereas a clean breakout over those levels could pave the way to the crucial psychological level of $120,000. FORECAST If institutional investment and corporate adoption keep coming in at the same rate, Bitcoin may extend its recovery towards the $116,000–$117,400 range in the immediate term. A decisive break above these resistance levels should set the stage for a retest of the psychological landmark at $120,000. Favorable macro conditions, including Fed rate-cut expectations and softening US Dollar strength, may further fuel risk-on sentiment and draw further inflows into Bitcoin, propelling it higher. Conversely, if the US Nonfarm Payrolls figure comes in better-than-anticipated, it might temper Fed rate-cut expectations and push Bitcoin’s price lower. Not being able to stay above near-term support at $110,750 might expose BTC to further losses, with a test of $107,429 likely if bears gain more momentum. Also, a reversal in investor sentiment towards risk aversion or redemptions from spot ETFs may cap Bitcoin’s rebound and keep the market under bear pressure in the near term.

Read More
Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Doodles in Neutral Zone Between 20-Day EMA Resistance, Crucial $106,400 Breakout

  • BY
  • June 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Bitcoin price is trapped in a six-day consolidation period, unable to overcome the resistance of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $105,300. Following its recent jump from $100,700 to an all-time high of $112,000, price has lost momentum, leading price to trade in a very narrow range between major Fibonacci support and resistance levels of $106,400 and $103,100. Since Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows weak momentum and price has not managed to re-take the 20-day EMA, near-term direction favors continued downside risk. A clear break above $106,400 is essential for bulls to bring back uptrend, while a fall beneath $103,100 may bring on heightened selling pressure. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe whether Bitcoin manages to break and sustain above this key moving average that has arrested recent attempts at a rebound. • A breakout above this resistance with success may indicate a bullish continuation towards the all-time high of $112,000. • This level has consistently drawn in buyers; a breakdown here can initiate heightened selling pressure. • Observe the RSI, particularly the reading on the 4-hour around 44, as a consistent move upwards can signal fresh buying strength, while further decline indicates ongoing bearish bias. Bitcoin price action is in a precarious state as it hovers in consolidation below the 20-day EMA, indicating market indecision following its recent sharp bounce. The cryptocurrency is caught in between solid resistance at $106,400 and key support around $103,100, with momentum gauges such as the RSI indicating limited upside. This lateral motion indicates that the market is holding back for a definite catalyst to initiate the next move, with a close above the 20-day EMA and the 50% Fibonacci level required to revive bullish impetus. Alternatively, a breakdown below support could lead to lower levels, keeping the short-term outlook in doubt and highly susceptible to key technical levels. Bitcoin remains trading sideways, rejections at the 20-day EMA and supports around $103,100. The absence of momentum and level RSI indicates indecision, and a break above $106,400 would be required to bring back bullishness. Otherwise, bearish risks are in the limelight. •  Bitcoin is ranging for the sixth consecutive day, between resistance at $106,400 and support at $103,100. • The 20-day EMA at $105,300 is forming a solid resistance, limiting all recent bounce efforts. • Price flashed a minor rally during the Asian session but could not maintain gains, reversing lower around $104,500. • RSI on the 4-hour chart is approximately 44, reflecting weak bullish buying pressure and possible downside bias. • A breakdown below $104,300 may result in a retest of $103,100, a major Fibonacci support level. • A strong breakout above $106,400 is required to resume the larger uptrend toward the record high of $112,000. • Deflated funding rates and recent long liquidations indicate the market could be resetting before a possible breakout. Bitcoin’s recent price action is indicative of a phase of uncertainty within the market as investors swallow recent profits and reconsider direction. Following a robust start to May, the momentum has tapered, with players seemingly holding back for new signals before opening new positions. This lull follows a wider sense of uncertainty among the global financial system, as macroeconomic considerations and sentiment increasingly influence short-term trading. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Throughout this consolidation phase, activity has been range-bound, implying that buyers and sellers are in a cautious mood. The muted action reflects a transient equilibrium in which neither has managed to prevail. To investors and observers, this type of situation tends to lead to a more forceful move in either direction, as the market accumulates pressure for a more definitive breakdown or breakthrough in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is encountering firm resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of about $105,300 that has consistently checked upward efforts. The price continues to be stuck in a defined range with $106,400 as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally and a key resistance level. Support, on the other hand, comes in at $103,100, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour scale is fluctuating near 44, showing weak momentum with no distinct bullish strength. As long as Bitcoin fails to break convincingly above the 20-day EMA and $106,400, the technical setup is inclined towards further consolidation or a potential retest of lower support zones. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break through the 20-day EMA and the $106,400 resistance level, then it may unleash fresh bullish momentum and make way for a push towards the previous all-time high at $112,000. Such a breakout will reflect a change in short-term sentiment and prompt new buying interest and perhaps even attract institutional investors into the market. A close above $106,400 would also invalidate the present consolidation pattern, implying that the larger uptrend from $100,700 would resume. On the negative side, not being able to hold above $104,300 would add to selling pressure and drive Bitcoin into the important support of $103,100. A firm break below this would potentially encourage a deeper correction and potentially draw additional liquidation from leveraged longs. If the support does fail to hold, bearish momentum could extend, extending the retracement to lower psychological levels, eroding recent gains and turning market sentiment more defensively.

Read More