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Bitcoin Stays Above $116K as Fed’s Dovish Bias Ignites Bullish Tides

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  • September 20, 2025
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Bitcoin stays in its three-week rebound, trading above $116,000 as the dovish bias of the Federal Reserve ignites risk-on appetite in markets. The 25-bps rate cut by the Fed, combined with the anticipation of additional easing in 2025, has boosted investors’ confidence, favoring riskier assets such as BTC. Corporate and institutional appetite is strong, with more than $660 million having entered Bitcoin spot ETFs this week and significant corporate buys, such as Strategy’s purchase of 525 BTC. Although on-chain indicators reflect conflicting signs, with retail investors now leading the market, the technical outlook for Bitcoin implies a possible rally to the $120,000 psychological barrier if positive momentum holds. KEY LOOKOUTS • Be on the lookout for any indication of future rate cuts or monetary relaxation, as additional dovish steps may keep supporting BTC’s bullish trend. • Inflows of significant size into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate buying can greatly impact direction in terms of price. • All-important support at $116,000 and resistance around $120,000 will decide whether BTC continues its ascend or gets a correction. • Track whether the market still stays retail-dominated or if the whale action surges, which may cause price whipsaws in a hurry. Bitcoin is still holding firm above $116,000 thanks to the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies and robust institutional appetite. The latest 25-bps rate reduction, along with the anticipation of additional easing in 2025, has fueled risk appetite, which supports Bitcoin and other risky assets. Institutional flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled over $660 million this week, with corporate buy-ins such as Strategy’s addition of 525 BTC backing bullish sentiment. While on-chain metrics indicate mixed signals with retail currently driving market action, the technical indicators of Bitcoin point to a possible rally toward the $120,000 mark if momentum is sustained. Bitcoin remains firm above $116,000 as the Fed’s dovish bias boosts market sentiment. Firm institutional and company buying helps underpin bullish sentiment, with scope to challenge $120,000 if the trend maintains. Cautiously optimistic on-chain signals indicate trader sentiment. • Bitcoin continues its rebound, remaining above $116,000 following three weeks of successive rises. • The Federal Reserve 25-bps rate cut and dovish 2025 guidance underpin risk-on sentiment. • Institutional buying is high, with more than $660 million entering Bitcoin spot ETFs this week. • Corporate buy-ins, such as Strategy’s entry of 525 BTC, support positive market sentiment. • Mixed signals are coming from on-chain metrics, with retail investors now leading the market. • Primary technical levels: support at $116,000 and resistance around $120,000 for the next possible rally. • Market is still cautious, with surprise whale activity or corrections potentially altering the direction of BTC in the short term. Bitcoin remains robust on its momentum, trading above $116,000 as investor sentiment remains upbeat on the back of the Federal Reserve’s recent dovish policy. The Fed’s 25-bps rate cut and forecasts of further easing in 2025 have spurred risk-on activities in markets, favoring not just Bitcoin but other risk assets. Institutional and corporate players are more active, thereby adding much-needed credibility and support to the market. More than $660 million has poured in this week into Bitcoin spot ETFs, an indication of deepening confidence of large-scale investors. BITCOIN DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Corporate investment in Bitcoin is also strong, with firms such as Strategy and others increasing their holdings of BTC. Strategy alone deposited 525 BTC into its reserves this week, while other companies collectively bought nearly 89 BTC. Also, efforts like NEXT Technology’s SEC filing to raise $500 million, some of which will be used to buy Bitcoin, reflect further incorporation of digital assets into mainstream corporate planning. These are demonstrations of increasing institutional acceptance, again, betokening robust support foundations for Bitcoin within the wider financial landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is indicating bullish energy as it holds well above the $116,000 level of support. The 60 weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows increasing upward momentum, and the 59 daily RSI shows constant buying pressure. Bitcoin just broke above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a sign of ongoing strength, although the weekly MACD still indicates a residual bearish crossover in late August. If BTC maintains its current pace, it may challenge the psychological level around $120,000, while a decline below $116,000 could witness a pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $113,900. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to sustain the present momentum and institutional inflows persist, BTC may push towards the psychological mark of $120,000 in the short term. Successful break above the level may pave the way towards its all-time high of $124,474, backed by persisting risk-on sentiment and increasing corporate and institutional demand. Retail and institutional buying could continue to fuel bullish momentum. On the flip side, a breach of the $116,000 support level may initiate a pullback towards the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $113,900. Higher whale participation or unexpected market sell-offs might overwhelm selling pressure, which in turn might slow down BTC’s recovery. Traders should be vigilant, with confounding indicators from on-chain metrics putting forward that the market might be subject to near-term volatility in spite of the general bullish trend.

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Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Price Dips Under $116K as ETF Flows and Lackluster Momentum Indicate Possible Correction

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  • July 26, 2025
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Bitcoin is signaling the possibility of a near-term correction as it dips below the critical level of $116,000, shattering its recent range-bound pattern. The fall is bolstered by weakening technicals in the form of a bearish MACD and RSI crossover, indicating waning bullish momentum. Also, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a modest weekly outflow of $58.64 million, putting an end to a six-week inflow stint, further contributing to the bearish sentiment. With increasing open interest indicating more short positions and no short-term relief from US macroeconomic fundamentals or interest rate reductions, BTC might experience more downward pressure in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • A close below this significant level daily might seal the deal for more downside, with targets in the vicinity of $111,410 (50-day EMA) or even the former ATH of $111,980. • Ongoing US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling $58.64 million for the current week might reflect diminishing institutional confidence and add pressure to the price further. • Bearish MACD and RSI crossovers on daily and weekly charts indicate falling momentum and higher likelihood of a correction. • Strong US economic data and the hawkish tilt from the Fed lower the odds of near-term rate cuts, taking the steam out of investor desire for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin is experiencing increased selling pressure as it drops below the critical support of $116,000, indicating a possible continuation of its short-term correction. This action follows against a backdrop of weakening technical strength, with both the MACD and RSI showing bearish indications. Contributing to the risk-averse sentiment, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a weekly outflow of $58.64 million, the first outflow in six weeks and reflecting a slowing in institutional demand. In addition, increasing open interest in conjunction with decreasing prices indicates a rise in short positions that can hasten the decline if bearish momentum continues. Bitcoin is below $116,000, breaking its recent range and indicating a possible short-term correction. Slowing momentum and ETF withdrawals indicate rising bearish pressure with downside risk intensifying. • Bitcoin has fallen below the lower edge of its range of consolidation, indicating possible further downside. • US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a moderate weekly outflow of $58.64 million, ending a six-week inflow streak. • Both daily and weekly RSI and MACD indicators reflect bearish indications, pointing to deteriorating bullish strength. • Open Interest has hit an all-time high of $44.5 billion, pointing towards growth in short positions during downward price movement. • If BTC remains below $116K, the next important support is around the 50-day EMA at $111,410 or the last ATH at $111,980. • Strong US economic reports and the hawkish tilt of the Fed reduce the prospects of interest rate reductions, putting extra pressure on risk assets. • A close above $120K on a daily basis might render the bearish scenario useless and allow for a retest of the $123,218 all-time high. Bitcoin’s sentiment this week is tempered by increasing investor wariness and pending macroeconomic headwinds. One of the most significant developments is the modest outflow from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, to the tune of $58.64 million. This represents the end of a six-week inflow trend and indicates a potential reversal in institutional sentiment. The outflows, while modest, are an indication of early warning signs of a possible pullback in investor confidence. The increase in open interest, usually coupled with speculative activity, is also indicative that traders are refocusing their strategies amid shifting market conditions. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from crypto-specific influences, general economic conditions also play a role in shaping sentiment. The US economy remains robust, with solid labor market readings and ongoing inflation pressures diminishing the chances of any near-term interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, continued global trade updates—like a possible deal between the US and EU—are watching investors closely. Although geopolitical advancements like these may tighten market confidence, the present uncertainty is promoting risk aversion in the space of crypto. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is displaying weakening momentum as it trades below the significant support of $116,000, breaking its recent range of consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart has fallen away from overbought, currently at 65, and the daily RSI has fallen to 51 and is trending lower. This move signals diminishing bullishness. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart also registered a bearish crossover, indicating potential further downside. If BTC cannot recover the $116K level, it could test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $111,410, with continued pressure anticipated should bearish sentiment continue. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to recover and close above the $116,000 level, it may indicate a possible rebound from its current retreat. A sustained advance above this threshold might prompt fresh buying interest, particularly if ETF flows normalize or turn into inflows. If BTC clears the top consolidation line of $120,000, it may set its sights on retesting the new all-time high of $123,218. Further encouragement of this bullish course may come from sustained optimism over global trade developments or positive macro changes. Downside risks include if it cannot regain $116,000, pushing Bitcoin into correction and further into key support regions. A conclusive daily close below this level raises the probability of a fall towards the 50-day EMA at $111,410, and even to the prior all-time high of $111,980. Increasing open interest with falling prices indicates heightened short positioning, which can reinforce bearish pressure. Further ETF redemptions and a strong Fed line on interest rates can also restrict upside and dampen market sentiment.

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Bitcoin Under Increasing Pressure: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Uncertainty Pose Threat to Crucial $100,000 Support Level

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  • June 14, 2025
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Bitcoin price remains under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fresh trade uncertainties bring considerable weight down on market sentiment. Having briefly touched its all-time high earlier this week, BTC fell below $105,000 due to more than $1.15 billion liquidations throughout the crypto market. Even with some positive indicators, including continued institutional demand and large inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, bearish technical signals like a fall below the 50-day EMA and a bearish MACD crossover indicate that Bitcoin may test the all-important $100,000 psychological support level if selling pressure continues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is continuing to drive global risk aversion, which pressures Bitcoin and other asset classes. • Institutional demand is strong in public companies and ETFs, with more than $1.07 billion in inflows to ETFs this week providing a degree of support to sentiment at the longer end. • Bitcoin’s fall below its 50-day EMA and bearish MACD crossover signal increased downside risk, with a retest of the $100,000 psychological figure a possibility. • Soft inflation readings could be supportive for risk assets in the longer run, but near-term uncertainty persists given conflicting market responses. Bitcoin remains under pressure as a mix of rising geopolitical uncertainty and unclear macroeconomic conditions sadden sentiment among investors. The Israel-Iran conflict has caused generalized risk-off flows leading to major liquidations in the cryptocurrency space. In spite of early-week optimism fueled by positive news in US-China trade negotiations and easing inflation data, Bitcoin was unable to hold onto its rally, falling below critical support levels. Strong institutional buying, especially from public firms and US spot Bitcoin ETFs, provides a hint of relief for long-term investors even as short-term bearish indicators indicate a possible retest of the $100,000 psychological threshold. Bitcoin wrestles to maintain above $105,000 with increased Middle East tensions and risk-averse market sentiment. Even as institutional inflows remain robust, bearish technical indicators indicate that BTC would test the important $100,000 support level if sell pressure persists. • Bitcoin price dips below $105,000 following a 4% decline in the last two days. • Rising Israel-Iran tensions provoke more than $1.15 billion in crypto market liquidations. • US-China trade optimism-fueled early-week gains erode under revived tariff threats. • US inflation figures softened as anticipated, yet still couldn’t give a boost to BTC’s price short term. • Public equities such as GameStop and Mercurity Fintech keep adding Bitcoin positions. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs witness $1.07 billion net inflows, ending two weeks of outflows. • Technicals suggest more downside risk with potential retest of support at $100,000. Bitcoin remains of great interest to institutional investors and public firms even though the market is presently experiencing a cautious mood. Companies such as Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc. and GameStop have recently issued large capital raises, with part going toward accumulating or creating additional Bitcoin holdings. This emerging interest on the part of established firms reflects Bitcoin’s increasing position as a strategic asset that can provide diversification and even long-term value protection in uncertain global economies. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Furthermore, US Bitcoin ETFs are demonstrating renewed vitality by logging more than $1.07 billion in inflows this week following a short stint of outflows. This uptick is indicative of unabated confidence from institutional investors that see Bitcoin as a sound investment even within the context of greater market volatility. The robust engagement of public companies and funds indicates that in spite of short-term market difficulties, long-term use of Bitcoin remains firmly entrenched. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is showing signs of increasing bearish momentum. The price has fallen below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $102,447, indicating potential for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 mark, currently reading 47, which signals weakening bullish strength. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has developed a bearish crossover, creating a sell signal and indicating possible sustained pressure to the downside. If Bitcoin is unable to maintain above today’s levels of support, it could test the significant psychological level of $100,000. FORECAST If geopolitical risk eases and global risk appetite improves, Bitcoin could continue its positive momentum. Ongoing institutional demand, robust ETF inflows, and potential relaxation in US monetary policy as inflation cools down could aid a rebound. In this case, Bitcoin could try to retest its recent highs around $110,000 and potentially hit its all-time high of $111,980, given buying pressure remains intact. On the flip side, if geopolitical uncertainty increases further or if wider market uncertainty continues, Bitcoin could see more selling. A breakdown below the 50-day EMA on a closing basis could pave the way for a more severe correction towards the important psychological level of $100,000. A failure to hold at this support could initiate further liquidation, taking prices even lower in the near term.

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Bitcoin Price Doodles in Neutral Zone Between 20-Day EMA Resistance, Crucial $106,400 Breakout

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  • June 5, 2025
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Bitcoin price is trapped in a six-day consolidation period, unable to overcome the resistance of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $105,300. Following its recent jump from $100,700 to an all-time high of $112,000, price has lost momentum, leading price to trade in a very narrow range between major Fibonacci support and resistance levels of $106,400 and $103,100. Since Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows weak momentum and price has not managed to re-take the 20-day EMA, near-term direction favors continued downside risk. A clear break above $106,400 is essential for bulls to bring back uptrend, while a fall beneath $103,100 may bring on heightened selling pressure. KEY LOOKOUTS • Observe whether Bitcoin manages to break and sustain above this key moving average that has arrested recent attempts at a rebound. • A breakout above this resistance with success may indicate a bullish continuation towards the all-time high of $112,000. • This level has consistently drawn in buyers; a breakdown here can initiate heightened selling pressure. • Observe the RSI, particularly the reading on the 4-hour around 44, as a consistent move upwards can signal fresh buying strength, while further decline indicates ongoing bearish bias. Bitcoin price action is in a precarious state as it hovers in consolidation below the 20-day EMA, indicating market indecision following its recent sharp bounce. The cryptocurrency is caught in between solid resistance at $106,400 and key support around $103,100, with momentum gauges such as the RSI indicating limited upside. This lateral motion indicates that the market is holding back for a definite catalyst to initiate the next move, with a close above the 20-day EMA and the 50% Fibonacci level required to revive bullish impetus. Alternatively, a breakdown below support could lead to lower levels, keeping the short-term outlook in doubt and highly susceptible to key technical levels. Bitcoin remains trading sideways, rejections at the 20-day EMA and supports around $103,100. The absence of momentum and level RSI indicates indecision, and a break above $106,400 would be required to bring back bullishness. Otherwise, bearish risks are in the limelight. •  Bitcoin is ranging for the sixth consecutive day, between resistance at $106,400 and support at $103,100. • The 20-day EMA at $105,300 is forming a solid resistance, limiting all recent bounce efforts. • Price flashed a minor rally during the Asian session but could not maintain gains, reversing lower around $104,500. • RSI on the 4-hour chart is approximately 44, reflecting weak bullish buying pressure and possible downside bias. • A breakdown below $104,300 may result in a retest of $103,100, a major Fibonacci support level. • A strong breakout above $106,400 is required to resume the larger uptrend toward the record high of $112,000. • Deflated funding rates and recent long liquidations indicate the market could be resetting before a possible breakout. Bitcoin’s recent price action is indicative of a phase of uncertainty within the market as investors swallow recent profits and reconsider direction. Following a robust start to May, the momentum has tapered, with players seemingly holding back for new signals before opening new positions. This lull follows a wider sense of uncertainty among the global financial system, as macroeconomic considerations and sentiment increasingly influence short-term trading. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Throughout this consolidation phase, activity has been range-bound, implying that buyers and sellers are in a cautious mood. The muted action reflects a transient equilibrium in which neither has managed to prevail. To investors and observers, this type of situation tends to lead to a more forceful move in either direction, as the market accumulates pressure for a more definitive breakdown or breakthrough in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is encountering firm resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of about $105,300 that has consistently checked upward efforts. The price continues to be stuck in a defined range with $106,400 as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally and a key resistance level. Support, on the other hand, comes in at $103,100, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour scale is fluctuating near 44, showing weak momentum with no distinct bullish strength. As long as Bitcoin fails to break convincingly above the 20-day EMA and $106,400, the technical setup is inclined towards further consolidation or a potential retest of lower support zones. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break through the 20-day EMA and the $106,400 resistance level, then it may unleash fresh bullish momentum and make way for a push towards the previous all-time high at $112,000. Such a breakout will reflect a change in short-term sentiment and prompt new buying interest and perhaps even attract institutional investors into the market. A close above $106,400 would also invalidate the present consolidation pattern, implying that the larger uptrend from $100,700 would resume. On the negative side, not being able to hold above $104,300 would add to selling pressure and drive Bitcoin into the important support of $103,100. A firm break below this would potentially encourage a deeper correction and potentially draw additional liquidation from leveraged longs. If the support does fail to hold, bearish momentum could extend, extending the retracement to lower psychological levels, eroding recent gains and turning market sentiment more defensively.

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