Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Falters Below $32.50 as US Yields Recover
Silver prices (XAG/USD) concluded the week with a negative bias, falling below $32.50 as US Treasury yields recovered, dampening demand for the metal. Though it consolidated between the 50-day SMA at $32.73 and 100-day SMA at $31.88, XAG/USD could not show a directional bias, and the RSI remained close to neutral. A conclusive break above $33.00 would steer momentum to the advantage of bulls towards $33.50 and possibly $34.51. But a decline below $32.00 would open up the way to lower support levels at $31.65 and the 200-day SMA at $31.23, elevating downside risk in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • A break above this level on a sustained basis could generate bullish momentum, paving the way to $33.50 and $34.51. • Holding above this psychological level is essential; a breakdown could fuel bearish pressure. • The 50-day SMA of $32.73 marks the top of the upside, while the 100-day SMA of $31.88 and 200-day SMA of $31.23 offer essential downside support. • The neutral RSI on the 50 level signifies indecision; a move either way could point to the next direction of the trend. Traders must keep a close eye on the $33.00 resistance level, as a break above it may ignite fresh bullish pressure, reaching $33.50 and possibly $34.51. Conversely, it is imperative to hold support at $32.00; a break would reveal important levels at $31.65 and the 200-day SMA at $31.23, indicating increasing bearish pressure. The 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $32.73 and $31.88 remain to establish the ongoing consolidation range. Meanwhile, the RSI close to neutral indicates market indecision, and a decisive directional move could be on the cards. XAG/USD is range-bound between the 50-day SMA at $32.73 and the 100-day SMA at $31.88, and there isn’t a definitive trend. A breach above $33.00 might initiate bullish momentum, while a fall below $32.00 could reveal lower support around $31.23. • XAG/USD languishes below $32.50 on pressure from surging US Treasury yields. • Price capped by 50-day SMA at $32.73, supported by the 100-day SMA at $31.88. • RSI is flat at the neutral 50 level, showing no clear direction in the market. • Break above $33.00 might set the stage for moves to $33.50 and the October high of $34.51. • Losing above $32.00 might take prices lower to $31.65 and the 200-day SMA of $31.23. • Choppy market conditions continue, with silver consolidating inside a tight band during the last week. • Technical bias still remains neutral, looking for a clear break above resistance or below important support. Silver prices eased at the end of the week, driven mainly by general market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions. The recent bounce in US Treasury yields depressed investors’ demand for non-yielding assets such as silver, helping push it into decline. In spite of persistent geopolitical tensions and inflation issues, the metal did not get any safe-haven flows, indicating market participants are more interested in interest rate directions and dollar moves at this point. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Silver’s direction remains heavily influenced by global economic indicators and policy expectations. As market participants weigh future economic data and central bank cues, silver’s mood is still guarded. Although the metal has long-term appeal as an industrial and investment precious metal, short-term patterns are linked to moving macro dynamics and risk appetite in larger financial markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) is in a consolidation mode, being stuck between the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $32.73 and the 100-day SMA of $31.88. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steady around the neutral position of 50, indicating no momentum in either direction. A break above or below these major levels can determine the direction of the next trend with $33.00 serving as key resistance and $32.00 as near-term support. Without a breakout, price action can be directed to remain range-bound and choppy. FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) breaking above the major resistance level of $33.00 may cause a bullish push towards the next targets at $33.50 and $34.00. A prolonged thrust past these levels can cause a test of the October 30 high of $34.51. The bearish momentum would probably be underpinned by new buying interest, particularly if overall market conditions, like softer US yields or a weaker dollar, become favorable to precious metals. Technical charts also may turn to signal bullish orientation, underpinning the rise. Conversely, a fall below the $32.00 level could indicate increasing bearish pressure, sending silver lower toward the 100-day SMA at $31.88 and May 15 low of $31.65. If this support level does not hold, the next significant level to watch would be the 200-day SMA at $31.23, with potential to slide further toward the $31.00 psychological level. Such action would signal a change of heart, perhaps on the back of firmer economic data or sustained advances in US Treasury yields, which have a tendency to weigh upon precious metals.
