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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Trades in Positive Territory Around Mid-$60s as Trade Tensions, OPEC+ Supply Adjustment, and Fed Rate Cut Speculations Weigh In

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  • April 14, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is trading in negative territory, staying just above the mid-$60.00 zone as conflicting fundamental drivers are maintaining caution among investors. New tensions regarding the US-China trade conflict and a surprising OPEC+ supply hike are dampening sentiment, and speculations of Fed rate cuts weigh in to stir fears of subpar global fuel demand. Nonetheless, the bearish side is still limited as hopes for successive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continue to weigh down the US Dollar, providing support to dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. Geopolitical fears related to potential US measures against Iran’s oil exports are also assisting in capping further losses, leaving WTI in a position of uncertain consolidation. KEY LOOKOUTS • Continued concerns regarding the mounting trade war can further slow down global economic growth and fuel demand, continuing to keep oil prices in check. • The surprise move by eight OPEC+ producers to bring forward a scheduled production hike and restore 411,000 barrels per day of supply to the market in May can continue to pressure crude prices. • Rising wagers on a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve, with several cuts in rates this year, would be able to sustain oil prices through maintaining a weak US Dollar. • Potential US moves to stop Iran from exporting its oil might bring new volatility to the market and serve as a support for WTI prices in the near term. WTI Crude Oil is still trading in the doldrums, unable to maintain gains as market forces present a tangled web of influences. Anxiety about the US-China trade conflict continues to be a powerful headwind, with investors concerned decelerating economic growth worldwide would severely reduce demand for fuel. Contributing to the bearishness, OPEC+ unexpectedly moved up the scheduled production increase, adding supply and further putting a lid on oil’s upward potential. Yet, hopes of several interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have left the US Dollar on the back foot, doing its best to insulate WTI from more significant losses. Meanwhile, geopolitical news — most notably the possibility of the US shutting down Iran’s oil exports — continues to provide underlying support and prevent oil prices from sliding precipitously. WTI Crude Oil is trading with a bearish bias, weighed down by revived US-China trade tensions and an unexpected OPEC+ supply hike. However, the expectations of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical concerns over Iran keep deeper losses in check. The market is vigilant amidst mixed global signals. •   WTI Crude Oil is trading with a bearish bias, floating around the mid-$60.00s amidst risk-averse market sentiment. •  US-China trade tensions increase concerns over lower global economic growth, which may lower fuel demand and press on oil prices. •  OPEC+ unexpectedly moved forward its supply boost, returning 411,000 barrels per day to the market during May, further pressuring prices. •  The US Dollar is still soft as expectations for several Federal Reserve rate cuts build, providing some strength to oil prices. •  Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran also assist in capping oil’s downside, with the US indicating potential action to stop Iranian oil shipments. •  Haphazard fundamental signals are making traders wary, inhibiting aggressive selling or buying pressure in the short term. •  The direction of the oil market in the near term will probably be influenced by new news on OPEC+ choices, US-China trade negotiations, and Fed policy actions. The crude oil market continues to be trapped between conflicting global factors, with traders balancing fears over economic growth and changing supply dynamics. The on-going trade war between the US and China continues to fuel uncertainty, as any deceleration in these big economies could translate into softer energy demand globally. Adding to the tentative atmosphere, members of OPEC+ have agreed to proceed with the planned production boost, and this might bring additional supply into the market at a time when demand might be facing headwinds. WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, hopes for policy shifts by the US Federal Reserve are providing some stability to sentiment in the markets. A weaker dollar tends to make commodities such as oil more appealing to foreign buyers, offering some respite from the demand concerns. Moreover, geopolitical events — such as the potential for the US to tighten the screws on Iran’s oil exports — are keeping the market on its toes for additional supply-side disruptions. Consequently, crude oil continues to chart a complicated landscape influenced by both global politics and economic indicators. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil is resisting around the $61.60 area, where selling has consistently capped upside efforts. The commodity is failing to sustain any significant rebound and remains at risk as long as it stays below this level. Support on the downside comes at the $60.00 psychological point, a break through which may target the next important support around $59.50. Overall, the price action suggests a consolidative phase, with traders awaiting a clear break on either side for fresh directional cues. FORECAST If global market sentiment stabilizes and trade tensions between the US and China ease, crude oil prices could find room for recovery. Further support can also be derived from any indication of supply tightening, either through OPEC+ shifting its production plan or geopolitical shock such as the possible limitation of Iranian oil exports. A weakening US Dollar, fueled by anticipated Federal Reserve rate reductions, may also further fuel buying interest in oil, setting the stage for a return towards higher resistance levels. On the other hand, if trade tensions between the world’s biggest economies continue to weaken, the outlook for global demand may further lose momentum, resulting in sustained pressure on crude prices. Increasing alarm over oversupply, particularly after OPEC+’s initial production hike, may speed up the downward slide. Moreover, any indication of economic slowdown in major markets or more robust US stockpile readings than anticipated could push oil prices towards lower support levels in future sessions.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Fluctuates near $73.50 on Weak Chinese Manufacturing Data, Tepid Demand Outlook

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  • January 28, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate oil prices recovered slightly to around $73.50 after a four-week low of $72.19, though upside is limited due to weak signals from the global demand front. China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in January as the Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 49.1. Warmer-than-expected US and European weather will continue to dampen demand for heating fuel. Other risks include US steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs that could have implications for global commodity demand. Analysts warn that these combined factors with US sanctions on Russian oil trade and China’s wary approach to using US-sanctioned tankers may weigh on WTI prices in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s unexpected contraction in manufacturing PMI at 49.1 raises concerns about crude oil demand. • Warmer US and European weather might reduce heating fuel demand this week. • US tariffs on metals might disrupt global commodity demand. • Sanctions on Russian oil trade and China’s tanker restrictions might add to the shocks on crude oil imports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices remain capped near $73.50, as the market is burdened by fears of global demand. China’s unexpected contraction in January’s manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.1, increased doubts about demand for crude from the world’s largest oil importer. Warmer-than-average weather in the US and Europe will once again cut back on demand for heating fuels, adding pressure to the market. Besides, potential US tariffs on metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper could further disrupt global commodity markets, while sanctions on Russian oil trade and China’s tanker restrictions amplify uncertainties in the oil market. These combined factors are likely to keep WTI under pressure in the near term. WTI oil is trading at nearly $73.50 and facing pressure due to weak Chinese manufacturing data, US warmer weather leading to decreased demand for heating fuels, and pending US tariffs targeting global commodity markets. •The plunge into 49.1 in January shows decreased demand from the largest crude importer globally •Above-average temperatures are causing fuel demand to shrink this week. •Proposed steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs threaten global commodity markets. • US sanctions on Russian oil trade may further tighten global supply chains. • The Shandong Port Group’s ban on US-sanctioned tankers adds uncertainty to China’s crude import outlook. • Broader economic caution and risk-averse sentiment are weighing on oil prices. • Prices face challenges sustaining above $73.50, reflecting a constrained upside due to tepid demand. West Texas Intermediate oil prices are trading near $73.50 as they try to gain momentum following a rebound from a four-week low of $72.19. A host of global factors continues to weigh on the outlook for crude demand. China’s manufacturing sector, a key driver of global oil consumption, reported a significant contraction in January, with the PMI dropping to 49.1. This sudden drop has added more fuel to the fire about weak oil imports into the world’s largest crude importer. Adding more fuel to the bearishness, warmer than usual weather is forecasted to happen in the US and Europe which would cut heating fuel demand and push oil prices lower. WTI Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Market participants continue to be sensitive to the US tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper as they may eventually affect global commodity markets. US sanctions against Russian oil trading and China’s tankers restricting trading with US-sanctioned vessels are adding additional uncertainties to the global supply chains. Analysts note that all these factors combined with the overall cautious risk environment are going to keep the WTI oil prices under pressure in the near term and offer very little room to upside. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical chartists of WTI Oil see the current strong resistance near $73.50. The rebound from the four-week low of $72.19 is seen as significant. The Relative Strength Index is neutral in momentum, which means the market is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the medium term. A break above the resistance at $73.50 could see the price push to $75, or a break below $72.19 may lead to further downside to $70. Traders should pay attention to volume trend and key support-resistance areas for breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST WTI Oil prices are likely to gain limited upside if some positive catalysts materialize. Rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity or supportive economic policies from Beijing can strengthen crude demand from the world’s largest importer. Further, geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains — tighter sanctions on Russian oil or disruptions in other significant crude-exporting regions — could drive prices higher. In the near term, if WTI can manage to move above the $73.50 resistance level, further upside towards $75, or even $77 could be realized. On the downside, WTI faces a considerable drag from a soft global demand outlook. China’s surprising contraction in its manufacturing sector, paired with warmer than usual weather both in the United States and in Europe, would likely drag down prices for crude oil. If the demand for heating fuels continues to slacken and worries about a worldwide recession increase, WTI should test the pivotal support level at $72.19. Breaks below here could push it lower toward $70, with bullish momentum intensifying if demand does not rebound or another negative economic report occurs.

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