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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation Ongoing Amid Fading Institutional Demand and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • February 15, 2025
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Bitcoin has consolidated between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, which is a period of indecision in the market. Institutional demand is fading, as seen through a $650.80 million net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs. Its correlation with the S&P 500 is still firm, but it has lost strength in correlation with Gold, as it is not a safe-haven asset but a risk-on asset. The macroeconomic backdrop, such as a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI report and Trump’s move to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, has introduced some volatility into the price action of BTC. Although technicals point to slightly bearish momentum, a conclusive breakout above $100,000 or below $94,000 might pave the way for Bitcoin’s next significant move.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin spot ETFs had a $650.80 million net outflow, reflecting waning institutional interest, which might propel additional price corrections. • US CPI releases and Federal Reserve rate expectations are influencing Bitcoin’s price, elevating market volatility and putting off a potential bullish breakout. • The correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has declined, with institutions going long on the precious metal due to regulation fears, volatility, and increasing fiat devaluation threats. • A clear break below $94,000 would precipitate a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 could be followed by a test of $106,012. Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, and declining institutional demand after spot ETFs experienced a $650.80 million net outflow. Macroeconomic tensions, such as above-predicted US CPI figures and Federal Reserve policy changes, are fueling market volatility. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold has declined, as institutions favor the precious metal because it remains stable amidst fiat devaluation fears. Technically, BTC is in a critical juncture—falling below $94,000 may move prices towards $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 may propel a rally towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Bitcoin is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000, as weakening institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainties put pressure on it. A break above $100,000 could instigate a rally, but a fall below $94,000 could lead to further falls. • BTC has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market indecision. • US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $650.80 million, reflecting diminishing institutional appetite and probable downside threats. • Increased US CPI figures and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions have boosted market uncertainty, influencing the price actions of Bitcoin. • BTC is trending more like a risk-on asset, with tighter correlation to the S&P 500 and a looser association with Gold. • Gold has surpassed Bitcoin in 2024 as institutional and sovereign wealth fund investment lifted its market capitalization. • RSI of 45 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate BTC could experience further corrections if it cannot break levels of resistance. • A price rise above $100,000 can trigger a rally to $106,012, while falling below $94,000 could see a plunge towards $90,000. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last ten days, indicating market uncertainty as institutional demand falters. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a large net outflow of $650.80 million, indicating decreased interest from institutional investors, which may cause further downward pressure. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, including increasing US CPI data and delayed Federal Reserve rate reductions, have introduced volatility into the market. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a risk-on asset, with a higher correlation with the S&P 500 and decreasing correlation with Gold. Institutional investors still prefer Gold, which has gained $1.5 trillion in market capitalization this year, further diminishing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Bitcoin’s price is still in consolidation between $94,000 and $100,000, as the traders wait for a break. Institutional appetite has slowed, as evident from the $650.80 million net Bitcoin spot ETF outflow, with fears of sustaining bearish pressure. Macroeconomic measures such as US inflation data and delay in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to affect BTC’s price movement. If Bitcoin surges above $100,000, it might recover its bullish trend and reach $106,012, but a fall below $94,000 can initiate a downfall towards $90,000. As long as market uncertainty lingers, traders need to pay close attention to important technical metrics and macroeconomic events for the next big move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical indicators of Bitcoin are bearish as it is still consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, reflecting slight bearish momentum after being pushed away from the middle-of-the-road 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also created a bearish crossover with red histogram bars pointing towards further possible corrections. A break below the critical support level of $94,000 by Bitcoin can lead to a fall towards the psychologically significant $90,000 level. On the other hand, a breakout above $100,000 would change momentum in the direction of the bulls, propelling BTC towards its January 31 high of $106,012. Traders will want to keep a close eye on volume and market sentiment for confirmation of the next large move. FORECAST If Bitcoin breaks above the top end of its current range of consolidation at $100,000, it might set off a bullish rally. A successful break with high buying volume would drive BTC towards its former high of $106,012, its last seen on January 31. Additional momentum might see a retest of higher resistance points at $110,000 as institutional and retail traders regain confidence. Macro economic influences, like a weaker US CPI report or a change in Federal Reserve policy in favor of rate cuts, would be the catalysts for Bitcoin’s upside. Moreover, increased adoption by sovereign players and ETFs holding more Bitcoin might lend long-term bullish support. In case Bitcoin does not hold above $94,000, bear pressure may gain strength to take it down towards the next psychological support level of $90,000. Deteriorating institutional appetite, as seen in the recent $650.80 million ETF outflows, might add to downside risks. Furthermore, if macroeconomic volatility continues—i.e., persistently high inflation, tardy Fed rate

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Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Seeks $4,300 as Community Unites for Danny Ryan

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  • January 31, 2025
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Ethereum (ETH) is showing bullish momentum, targeting a potential rally to $4,300 if it breaks the falling wedge resistance. The price has surged to $3,240, gaining 3% amid strong community support for Danny Ryan to lead the Ethereum Foundation. Over 51,000 ETH worth more than $162 million signaled for Ryan via an informal vote that is related to concerns of the leadership within the foundation. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs reported a net outflow of $4.70 million. The technical outlook for ETH points out that to maintain its current trend, the asset needs to breach several crucial resistance levels including $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100. A break down below this may take it to $3,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • ETH must break the falling wedge resistance and hold above $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100 to confirm a rally toward $4,300. • Over 51,000 ETH, worth $162 million, has signaled support for Danny Ryan to lead the Ethereum Foundation, influencing market sentiment. • Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.70 million, which could affect investor confidence and short-term price movements. • RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are reaching neutral levels; a breakout above these could signal stronger bullish momentum for Ethereum’s price rally. Ethereum is at a critical juncture, with its price eyeing a breakout toward $4,300 if it overcomes the falling wedge resistance and key levels at $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100. The strong support for Danny Ryan on leading the Ethereum Foundation from over 51,000 ETH to the tune of $162 million has definitely fired the ethical bullish into the market. But a new sour note came in that Ethereum ETF recorded a net flow out worth $4.70 million, which concerned investor confidence. Technically, RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are approaching neutral marks, and any decisive move above them would further build bullish strength in ETH. Ethereum eyes a breakout to $4,300 if it clears the key resistance levels and is backed by strong community support for Danny Ryan. ETF outflows and technical resistance, however, might impact its momentum. A successful breakout above the falling wedge might fuel a strong bullish rally. • ETH is aiming for a breakout to $4,300 if it can clear the falling wedge resistance and the key levels at $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100. • More than 51,000 ETH, valued at $162 million, has been voted in support of Ryan as the head of the Ethereum Foundation, which has positively impacted investor sentiment. • A net outflow of $4.70 million from Ethereum ETFs raises questions about institutional investor confidence and market volatility. • If ETH breaks resistance, it could see a strong uptrend; otherwise, it might drop back to the psychological level of $3,000. • ETH futures registered $34.26 million in liquidations in 24 hours, which further indicates increased volatility and shifts in trader positioning. • The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are approaching the neutral levels; a breakout above them could confirm stronger bullish momentum. • Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin defended the current leadership, hailing Aya Miyaguchi and EF researchers despite calls for change. Ethereum is targeting a breakout to $4,300 if it can break above key resistance levels at $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100. Price has recently moved up to $3,240, gaining 3% while closing in on the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern. A breakout from this pattern may propel a strong rally, and bullish momentum may intensify if these resistance levels turn into support. Nevertheless, breaking down the resistance may send ETH back to the psychological level of around $3,000. The next several trading sessions are critical to figuring out which direction Ethereum is headed in the short term.  ETHEREUM Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The Ethereum community has rallied behind Danny Ryan to head the Ethereum Foundation, as more than 51,000 ETH, amounting to about $162 million, have been signaled in his favor. This is against the backdrop of criticism over the leadership structure of the foundation and demands for the resignation of executive director Aya Miyaguchi. However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has come out in defense of Aya’s leadership, praising her role in Ethereum’s growth. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.70 million, which could affect investor confidence and introduce short-term volatility in the market.  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical analysis of Ethereum shows a possible breakout from a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish formation that indicates an upward move if resistance is broken. The key resistance levels to watch are $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100, which ETH must clear to confirm a rally toward $4,300. The Relative Strength Index is testing its neutral zone, and a move above it could strengthen bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is also close to its signal line, suggesting an upward price. Should it fail to break resistance, the Ethereum price may drop towards the support level of $3,200 and possibly down to $3,000 in case the selling pressure gets higher. Traders should look at volume spikes and candlestick formations to confirm the direction of the Ethereum’s next move.  FORECAST Ethereum’s price currently shows bullish momentum, breaking for a breakout at $4,300 if the falling wedge resistance is cleared. A successful breakout above key levels at $3,550, $3,770, and $4,100 will have a good basis for a rally, taking ETH to its desired target. Moreover, positive sentiments in the market have been induced by the support for Danny Ryan as the head of the Ethereum Foundation, having over $162 million in ETH backing him. If the positive momentum lingers on and technical indicators such as RSI and Stochastic Oscillator remain above their center lines, then Ethereum might experience rising buying pressure with prolonged upward movement in the following weeks. On the downside, there are still some threats to Ethereum. ETF outflows of $4.70 million mean that some institutional investors have drawn back; otherwise, this could reduce bullish strength. Moreover, if ETH is unable to breach the falling wedge resistance, then it could potentially retrace toward the $3,200 support level and then possibly even hit $3,000 if

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