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Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds Steady Amid ETF Inflows and Looming Macro Triggers

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  • July 30, 2025
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Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $116,000 and $120,000, reflecting market indecision ahead of several key macroeconomic events. Despite recent selling pressure, including a massive 80,000 BTC OTC sale by Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, supported by consistent institutional demand and inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $157.02 million on Monday alone. But with key US employment, GDP, interest rate, and tariff announcements due this week, volatility in markets may rise sharply. Traders are nervous as technical charts point to declining momentum, and the SEC’s hesitation in deciding on ETFs makes the near-term outlook even more uncertain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Future US employment data, GDP announcement, Fed interest rate move, and tariff deadline might lead to sudden price fluctuations in Bitcoin. • Further positive inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $157.02 million injected on Monday, reflect increased institutional demand in the face of market consolidation. • A fall below $116,000 is likely to see a decline towards the 50-day EMA at $112,526, while a close above $120,000 on the daily chart is likely to see a move towards the all-time high of $123,218. • The US SEC has delayed decisions on the Truth Social BTC ETF and other altcoin-focused ETFs, prolonging uncertainty but possibly setting up future bullish catalysts. Bitcoin is still trading in a tight range of $116,000 to $120,000, marking a period of consolidation as traders wait for major macroeconomic events that will inject substantial volatility into the market. In spite of a large recent OTC sale by Galaxy Digital of 80,000 BTC, the price has exhibited impressive resilience underpinned by robust institutional buying and steady inflows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. While this is indicative of underlying bullishness, caution still dominates as pending announcements including the Fed rate decision, US GDP data, and tariff deadlines hang over markets and have the potential to induce sudden market responses in either direction. Bitcoin holds range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 while investors wait for key US economic announcements. Firm ETF inflows and institutional demand support it, but volatility will increase with the pending macro events. • Bitcoin is range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 after reaching an all-time high at $123,218 on July 14. • ETF flows continue to be firm, with US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $157.02 million of net inflows on Monday. • BTC remains resilient despite a gargantuan 80,000 BTC OTC sale from Galaxy Digital, underpinned by ongoing institutional buying. • Volatility remains at annual lows but is poised to increase amidst pending US economic releases and policy announcements. • Notable macro events for this week are US employment releases, GDP data, Fed interest rate announcement, and Trump tariff deadline. • Technical indicators flash caution – RSI points downward and MACD shows a bearish crossover. • The SEC delays ETF decisions, including Truth Social’s Bitcoin ETF, adding short-term uncertainty but long-term bullish potential. Bitcoin’s price action over the past two weeks has remained steady within a defined range, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. In spite of wider volatility, investor attitude seems to be gaining traction, reflected in steady inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs saw a significant $157.02 million in inflows on Monday alone, the third day running of net positive flows. Institutional buying and treasury vehicle accumulation still provide support to Bitcoin, cushioning it against macro sell-offs, as was seen in the latest 80,000 BTC OTC trade by Galaxy Digital. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The overall market is gearing up for a week that is going to see major macroeconomic events that could drive sentiment and investor action across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. Those announcements of US jobs, GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve interest rate choice are likely to define investor expectations. In the meantime, the SEC postponement to approve a number of crypto-related ETFs, such as the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, reflects the continued regulatory uncertainty but also implies increasing institutional focus on digital assets. As Bitcoin remains to attract both institutional and retail attention, the interest is on how outside economic and policy conditions will influence its next directional direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is trading in a period of consolidation between $116,000 and $120,000, with indicators exhibiting weakened bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 58 on the daily chart—still above middle but falling—indicating diminishing buying pressure. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has demonstrated a bearish crossover, which could signal short-term downfall. If Bitcoin drops below the $116,000 support level on a daily close basis, it might engender a fall down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $112,526. On the other hand, a strong push higher above $120,000 might recalculate the route to retesting the recent all-time high of $123,218. FORECAST If Bitcoin can close and remain above the $120,000 resistance level, it may find itself with bullish momentum and targeting a retest of its new all-time high at $123,218. Breaking through this level would tend to induce new buying interest, and possibly push BTC into fresh highs. Ongoing inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with robust institutional buying, may be the support needed for a breakout higher, particularly if macroeconomic news or regulatory news is also positive for risk assets. Conversely, a firm breakout below the $116,000 area of support may lead to further decline, with the next important support at the 50-day EMA around $112,526. Weakening technicals, including the bearish MACD crossover and falling RSI, indicate bearish momentum is building. Moreover, increased volatility in the market due to macroeconomic releases or surprise regulatory announcements has the potential to spark sudden sell-offs, especially in a leveraged market environment, driving further price correction in Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Under Increasing Pressure: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Uncertainty Pose Threat to Crucial $100,000 Support Level

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  • June 14, 2025
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Bitcoin price remains under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fresh trade uncertainties bring considerable weight down on market sentiment. Having briefly touched its all-time high earlier this week, BTC fell below $105,000 due to more than $1.15 billion liquidations throughout the crypto market. Even with some positive indicators, including continued institutional demand and large inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, bearish technical signals like a fall below the 50-day EMA and a bearish MACD crossover indicate that Bitcoin may test the all-important $100,000 psychological support level if selling pressure continues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is continuing to drive global risk aversion, which pressures Bitcoin and other asset classes. • Institutional demand is strong in public companies and ETFs, with more than $1.07 billion in inflows to ETFs this week providing a degree of support to sentiment at the longer end. • Bitcoin’s fall below its 50-day EMA and bearish MACD crossover signal increased downside risk, with a retest of the $100,000 psychological figure a possibility. • Soft inflation readings could be supportive for risk assets in the longer run, but near-term uncertainty persists given conflicting market responses. Bitcoin remains under pressure as a mix of rising geopolitical uncertainty and unclear macroeconomic conditions sadden sentiment among investors. The Israel-Iran conflict has caused generalized risk-off flows leading to major liquidations in the cryptocurrency space. In spite of early-week optimism fueled by positive news in US-China trade negotiations and easing inflation data, Bitcoin was unable to hold onto its rally, falling below critical support levels. Strong institutional buying, especially from public firms and US spot Bitcoin ETFs, provides a hint of relief for long-term investors even as short-term bearish indicators indicate a possible retest of the $100,000 psychological threshold. Bitcoin wrestles to maintain above $105,000 with increased Middle East tensions and risk-averse market sentiment. Even as institutional inflows remain robust, bearish technical indicators indicate that BTC would test the important $100,000 support level if sell pressure persists. • Bitcoin price dips below $105,000 following a 4% decline in the last two days. • Rising Israel-Iran tensions provoke more than $1.15 billion in crypto market liquidations. • US-China trade optimism-fueled early-week gains erode under revived tariff threats. • US inflation figures softened as anticipated, yet still couldn’t give a boost to BTC’s price short term. • Public equities such as GameStop and Mercurity Fintech keep adding Bitcoin positions. • US spot Bitcoin ETFs witness $1.07 billion net inflows, ending two weeks of outflows. • Technicals suggest more downside risk with potential retest of support at $100,000. Bitcoin remains of great interest to institutional investors and public firms even though the market is presently experiencing a cautious mood. Companies such as Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc. and GameStop have recently issued large capital raises, with part going toward accumulating or creating additional Bitcoin holdings. This emerging interest on the part of established firms reflects Bitcoin’s increasing position as a strategic asset that can provide diversification and even long-term value protection in uncertain global economies. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Furthermore, US Bitcoin ETFs are demonstrating renewed vitality by logging more than $1.07 billion in inflows this week following a short stint of outflows. This uptick is indicative of unabated confidence from institutional investors that see Bitcoin as a sound investment even within the context of greater market volatility. The robust engagement of public companies and funds indicates that in spite of short-term market difficulties, long-term use of Bitcoin remains firmly entrenched. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is showing signs of increasing bearish momentum. The price has fallen below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $102,447, indicating potential for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral 50 mark, currently reading 47, which signals weakening bullish strength. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has developed a bearish crossover, creating a sell signal and indicating possible sustained pressure to the downside. If Bitcoin is unable to maintain above today’s levels of support, it could test the significant psychological level of $100,000. FORECAST If geopolitical risk eases and global risk appetite improves, Bitcoin could continue its positive momentum. Ongoing institutional demand, robust ETF inflows, and potential relaxation in US monetary policy as inflation cools down could aid a rebound. In this case, Bitcoin could try to retest its recent highs around $110,000 and potentially hit its all-time high of $111,980, given buying pressure remains intact. On the flip side, if geopolitical uncertainty increases further or if wider market uncertainty continues, Bitcoin could see more selling. A breakdown below the 50-day EMA on a closing basis could pave the way for a more severe correction towards the important psychological level of $100,000. A failure to hold at this support could initiate further liquidation, taking prices even lower in the near term.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Sees $3,400 Target as Futures Open Interest Hits Historical High

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  • June 12, 2025
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Ethereum (ETH) is showing bullish strength as it tests the $2,850 resistance level, fueled by a jump in futures open interest, which recorded a historical high of 15.21 million ETH. Institutional activity, led by the Volatility Shares 2x leveraged ETH ETF, and regular flows into US spot Ethereum ETFs are driving the increase. Accumulation addresses have also experienced high activity, with over 400K ETH inflows on several days. Technical indicators indicate Ethereum trading above its 200-day SMA, with potential for moving up towards $3,400 if present support holds good, although short-term volatility is likely. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key resistance for Ethereum is at $2,850; a break and close above it could open the way to $3,400. • ETH futures open interest has reached an all-time high of 15.21 million ETH, reflecting intense institutional demand and increasing leveraged positions. • Accumulation addresses continue to witness massive inflows, with more than 400K ETH added in five out of the last seven days, reflecting strong long-term holding sentiment. • ETH continues to trade above its 200-day SMA with MACD closing in on a bullish crossover and RSI well on its way to overbought levels, indicating increasing upward momentum but potential short-term corrections. Ethereum is registering renewed strength as it fights off the $2,850 resistance level, fueled by a jump in futures open interest and consistent institutional inflows. The record high futures OI of 15.21 million ETH, dominated by leveraged products such as the Volatility Shares 2x ETH ETF, is a testament to growing investor confidence and risk appetite. While this is happening, high inflows into accumulation addresses and sustained buying pressure in US spot ETFs indicate a healthy demand base. Since ETH is trading above its 200-day SMA and technical indicators are indicating bullish momentum, the cryptocurrency is set to go higher if it sustains current support levels and breaks through short-term resistance levels. Ethereum is probing the $2,850 level of resistance, supported by all-time-high futures open interest and heavy accumulation. Institutional buying, especially via leveraged ETFs, is behind the direction of the market. Support persists, and ETH could aim for the $3,400 level in the days ahead. •  Ethereum’s record-high futures open interest amounted to 15.21 million ETH, which was dominated by the Volatility Shares 2x leveraged ETH ETF. •  CME has observed substantial expansion in ETH futures positions, which reflects increasing institutional demand. •  Accumulation addresses posted recorded inflows in excess of 400K ETH in five of the previous seven days. •  US spot Ethereum ETFs registered net inflows for 17 consecutive days, amounting to $124.93 million on Tuesday alone. •  ETH temporarily broke above the $2,850 resistance level for the first time since February 4. •  Technical markers such as the RSI and MACD indicate firm bullish momentum but suggest potential near-term volatility. •  Should bullish momentum persist, ETH may go for $3,078 and $3,400; inability to maintain support could witness decreases towards $2,500. Ethereum has seen considerable investor demand, especially from institutional investors. Futures open interest in ETH has set an all-time high of 15.21 million ETH, and most of this rise is due to the Volatility Shares 2x leveraged ETH ETF. It has attracted a significant amount of leveraged exposure, which means that high-net-worth and professional traders are long on Ethereum’s long-term future. Also, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a significant increase in ETH futures positions, which further highlights the increasing demand from major market players. ETHEREUM DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, US spot Ethereum ETFs are still seeing steady inflows, which have now had 17 consecutive days of being in the green. Accumulation addresses — accounts that have never offloaded any ETH — are also witnessing significant inflows, which indicates that long-term holders are optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term potential. All these indicate an increasing sentiment of optimism in the market, with both retail and institutional investors reflecting steady demand for the asset. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum’s current price action demonstrates robust bullish momentum as it remains above the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), typically a good gauge of long-term trend strength. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels, indicating robust buying pressure but also the potential for near-term consolidation or small pullbacks. In the meantime, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is trying to execute a bullish crossover, as its histogram is becoming positive, reflecting a building upside bias. As long as ETH holds its support above the $2,700–$2,760 zone, it is very well-placed to test higher levels of resistance in the coming days. FORECAST If Ethereum is able to breach and hold above the $2,850 resistance mark, it may pave the way to the next significant resistance around $3,078, which also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The successful breakout may then take ETH all the way up to the $3,400 area, which is fueled by robust institutional buying interest, accumulation patterns, and optimistic market sentiment. The consistent flows into both spot and futures ETFs also contribute to the positive outlook, indicating that investors continue to have faith in Ethereum’s long-term potential. On the negative side, if Ethereum cannot stay above the $2,850 resistance, it is possible that it will find instant support at its 200-day SMA. Breaking below this level can set off a further drop to the $2,500 level. Also, with RSI nearing overbought territory, the risk of short-term profit-taking and higher volatility is always there, particularly if leveraged positions start to deplete. Investors must be careful against surprise corrections amidst the general market gyrations.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Stabilizes at $105,000 Resistance with Increasing Institutional Appetite and International Trade Hopes

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  • May 17, 2025
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Bitcoin is presently holding steady at around $103,000 after persistently probing the crucial $105,000 resistance level week after week. This uptrend is complemented by increasing institutional appetite, such as major corporate Bitcoin buying and continuous inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Hope for global trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs between the US, China, and the UK, and the softer US inflation data, have boosted risk-on attitudes in markets. Traders, however, need to exercise caution amid profit-taking cues from owners and market volatility initiated by the second round of repayments on the collapsed FTX exchange. Technical gauges indicate declining bullish pressure, emphasizing the chances of a pullback if Bitcoin is unable to break above resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin has not been able to close above this important level several times and thus is a significant hurdle to continued upside momentum. • Large-scale buys by companies such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise, as well as consistent spot ETF inflows, continue to underpin the bullish argument. • More recent tariff cuts and softer US CPI readings are fueling risk-on sentiment, which is likely to favor Bitcoin’s price action. • Rising realized profits among holders and bearish technicals like the RSI and MACD call for caution, as these may prompt a short-term pullback. Bitcoin’s immediate task is still to overcome the formidable resistance at $105,000, which has been tested a number of times but not broken. At the same time, increasing institutional and corporate demand, epitomized by massive Bitcoin buys and steady ETF inflows, is increasingly supporting its appeal as a strategic asset. Favorable news on world trade agreements and lower US inflation readings are also driving the risk-on tone that may underpin further advances. However, caution is warranted as profit-taking by holders and bearish technical indicators like the RSI and MACD signal the potential for a short-term pullback if the resistance holds. Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $105,000 resistance level amid strong institutional demand and positive global trade news. While risk-on sentiment supports potential gains, profit-taking and bearish technical signals suggest caution ahead. • Bitcoin price is range-bound at $103,000 following several biddings off the $105,000 resistance level. • Recent global trade agreements among the US, China, and UK have relaxed tariff tensions, lifting market sentiment. • Less-than-expected US inflation data has underpinned bets for future Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. • Institutional investors such as Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise are buying large sums of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. •  US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain experiencing solid inflows, indicative of increasing institutional appetite. •  Profit-taking by owners following recent price appreciation may enhance selling pressure and cause short-term correction. •  Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicating diminishing bullish momentum, recommending caution for investors. Bitcoin’s recent stability around the $103,000 level indicates increasing optimism fueled by favorable trends in international trade and rising institutional demand. Significant trade deals between the US, China, and the UK have reduced tariff tensions and increased risk asset confidence, including Bitcoin. Coupled with this, milder US inflation readings have strengthened expectations of cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the future, further incentivizing investors to look at assets with higher growth prospects. This favorable macroeconomic environment is driving steady demand for Bitcoin as a strategic asset. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is also accelerating, with firms like Metaplanet and DDC Enterprise unveiling material accumulation plans to keep Bitcoin as a component of their treasury holdings. Furthermore, regulatory clarity is strengthening as nations like Ukraine consider legislation for a national Bitcoin reserve, indicating increasing sovereign interest. These trends, along with sustained inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicate rising legitimacy and long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s place within diversified investment portfolios. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin has faced stiff resistance at the $105,000 level, unable to cross it despite several attempts over the last week. Momentum indicators are also indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, with some important measures indicating that traders are beginning to take profits after gains. This has seen a consolidation period, with Bitcoin stabilizing just above $100,000. If the resistance at $105,000 holds firm, Bitcoin may experience a temporary pullback to probe support levels, so it is crucial to keep an eye on price action in the near term. FORECAST Bitcoin’s outlook is positive as increasing institutional demand and robust corporate accumulation are good bases for higher prices. Favorable global trade news and de-escalating tariff tensions are boosting overall market confidence that may cause additional inflows into Bitcoin. Also, constant interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs keeps fueling liquidity and legitimacy, which could create the way for a prolonged rally if Bitcoin can break through the crucial $105,000 resistance point. Fresh buying pressure at that juncture would drive prices upwards, drawing even more investors and strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve asset. Conversely, Bitcoin has issues that might prompt short-term falls. Profit-taking by owners following recent price increases could add selling pressure, particularly if the $105,000 resistance level is too powerful to breach. In addition, future volatility associated with the second round of repayments from the now-bankrupt FTX exchange can send the market into a tizzy. If Bitcoin cannot hold onto momentum and drops below key support around $100,000, it could come under additional pressure as risk-averse traders close out positions, potentially creating a potential retracement before any resumed uptrend.

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