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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Firm Near Multi-Year High In Anticipation of Pivotal Fed and BoE Policy Announcements

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  • June 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair remains firm above mid-1.3500s as investors wait for pivotal economic events, such as the UK CPI data and the forthcoming monetary policy announcements of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While dovish BoE hopes and recent weaker UK economic figures press on the British Pound, the US Dollar is also capped by increasing speculation of a September Fed rate cut. With recent mixed fundamentals and increased market risk aversion, the pair remains in a tight range, as investors hold back from taking firm positions in anticipation of such significant risk events. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be carefully observed for guidance on the BoE’s future policy action. A lower print would reinforce rate cut bets. • Market attention remains on whether the BoE hints at a rate cut trajectory in light of recent developments of economic slowdown in the UK. • Any dovish message or confirmation of a September rate cut can pressure the USD and underpin GBP/USD. • Continued Middle East tensions and global trade uncertainties could drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is stuck in a range above the mid-1.3500s as traders prepare for a week of high-impact economic events. The next UK inflation figures and the Bank of England’s policy meeting should provide pivotal guidance for the British Pound, particularly in light of rising bets on a rate cut in light of soft economic data. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision will dictate the near-term direction of the US Dollar, which has come under pressure from anticipation of September easing. With mixed signals and general geopolitical worries, market participants are being cautious, holding the pair in a narrow trading range. GBP/USD hovers in a tight range over the mid-1.3500s as markets wait for the UK CPI and central bank action. BoE rate reduction hopes and dovish Fed sentiment keep both USD and GBP action contained. Traders sit on the sidelines in anticipation of significant event risks this week. • GBP/USD maintains its position above mid-1.3500s, without apparent intraday direction. • The pair is close to a three-year high, consistent with recent GBP strength. • Wednesday’s UK CPI data will be an important guide for BoE policy expectations. • BoE is likely to turn dovish in the face of dismal UK economic statistics. • Fed policy announcement on Wednesday can influence USD action heavily. • Market is expecting a possible Fed rate cut by September, capping USD advances. • Increasing Middle East tensions underpin USD’s safe-haven demand but limit volatility. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation as investors wait for a string of important economic events this week. Market participants are most keenly interested in the publication of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) figures and the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, both of which should give important clues about the direction of interest rates in the UK. Recent evidence of UK economic contraction has grown speculation on the BoE’s potential to cut policy stance ahead of schedule, shaping sentiment towards the British Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, the US Federal Reserve policy release is also under scrutiny, as market players seek directions regarding when possible rate cuts would be implemented later in the year. Although the US Dollar is held up by safe-haven appetite amidst geopolitical risks, hopes that the Fed would shift towards more accommodative policies are holding back aggressive bullish pressure. The overall market is reflecting a defensive tone as traders hold back from placing big bets until there is greater clarity from these crucial central bank events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a very tight consolidation range just above the mid-1.3500s with a lack of strong momentum. The pair is still near its recent multi-year high, reflecting underlying bullishness, but the failure to break suggests indecision on the part of traders. Support is near the 1.3550 level and resistance near the recent high at 1.3600. A continued advance above this resistance would potentially set the stage for more upside, while a breakdown below support may indicate short-term weakness in front of the Fed and BoE announcements. FORECAST If the coming UK CPI data suprises to the higher side or the Bank of England takes a less dovish tone than anticipated, the British Pound might pick up speed. Moreover, anything the Federal Reserve suggests that there is a longer horizon before rate cuts would act to reinforce GBP/USD upside as well. Under these circumstances, the pair may break through recent highs and aim for levels above 1.3600, provided global risk sentiment should revive. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK inflation reading or definite indications of future rate reductions by the BoE will heavily burden the Pound. Should the Fed hold a relatively aggressive stance or geopolitical tensions escalate, US Dollar demand might be elevated, pushing GBP/USD down. A breach of the 1.3550 support will potentially usher in further losses towards the 1.3500 psychological level and maybe even lower.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Under Pressure: Further Declines Possible Amid Weakening Upward Momentum

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  • June 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair is exhibiting symptoms of further weakness as recent price movements indicate a bearish bias. Following the breach below the critical 1.3500 support line and a dip to a low of 1.3458, the Pound is exposed to the US Dollar. Though oversold conditions may restrict near-term downside to a retest of 1.3460, UOB Group analysts warn that a clear breach below 1.3420 would set the stage for further losses. Resistance zones lie at 1.3525 and 1.3555, with the overall bearish bias intact unless GBP/USD rises above the formidable resistance at 1.3580. KEY LOOKOUTS • Support at 1.3460 is immediate, with a stronger level at 1.3420; a break through here could initiate further downside. • Resistance on the upside is capped by 1.3525 and 1.3555, with strong resistance at 1.3580. • Tentative pickup in downward momentum implies sustained bearish bias, notwithstanding present oversold levels. • Continuation of trading below 1.3500 confirms diminishing upward momentum, raising risk of further declines to 1.3420 and lower. GBP/USD currency pair continues to experience selling pressure as recent price action reflects a change towards a bearish trend. Following the breaking of key 1.3500 support level, the pair fell to 1.3458 before slightly rebounding. Although oversold conditions suggest limited near-term downside, analysts caution that a prolonged break below 1.3420 would bring about further decline. On the positive side, resistance points at 1.3525, 1.3555, and the more important barrier at 1.3580 could cap any resulting bounce, preserving the overall bearish bias for the moment. GBP/USD continues to be pressured after falling through the 1.3500 support point, hitting lows around 1.3458. Though oversold markets can inhibit near-term losses, a break below 1.3420 might prompt losses to extend. Most important resistance levels are still 1.3525 and 1.3580. • GBP/USD fell below the pivotal 1.3500 level, its low at 1.3458. • Pair’s current market sentiment is negative. • Levels to watch for support are 1.3460 and 1.3420. • Levels of resistance are located at 1.3525, 1.3555, and 1.3580. • Oversold markets might put a cap on immediate decline, but the bearish momentum continues. • Economic announcements, central bank policy, and world sentiment remain in charge of directing the market. • A drop below 1.3420 would prompt further declines, and a breakout above 1.3580 would reduce selling pressure. The recent activity on GBP/USD mirrors market sentiment shaped by economic releases, central bank actions, and world financial conditions. The Pound Sterling has been responding to changes in investors’ confidence, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations, particularly in terms of interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Market participants also continue to watch macroeconomic data like inflation, employment, and GDP growth that continue to influence the direction of both currencies. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market mood is also influenced by wider risk drivers such as global trade patterns, geopolitics, and appetite for risk assets on the part of investors. Shifts in these drivers can trigger shifts in currency flows, with traders rebalancing in response. As ever, forthcoming economic data releases and the words of central bankers will be keenly in the spotlight, providing additional insight into the likely direction of GBP/USD over the next several weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD’s decline from recent levels below 1.3500 indicates weakening bullish strength and the onset of a bearish bias. The pair touched 1.3458 briefly, suggesting that sellers are starting to take charge. Although oversold short-term conditions mean some rebound or consolidation might occur, the larger context indicates further downside threats if the pair breaks through the level of major support at 1.3420. Levels of resistance at 1.3525, 1.3555, and particularly 1.3580 are likely to mark any meaningful rally unless robust bullish catalysts are realized. FORECAST If GBP/USD succeeds in regaining the upward trend, a recovery to the resistance levels of 1.3525 and 1.3555 would be observed. A break above these levels may pave the way for another surge towards the stronger resistance at 1.3580. But any rally is set to remain capped until there is a dramatic shift in sentiment or positive economic news in favor of the Pound. On the flip side, the pair is susceptible as long as it holds below the major resistance levels. A short-term retest of the 1.3460 support and a clean break below 1.3420 may speed up selling pressure, potentially leading to a steeper fall. If bearish momentum gains further traction, the next major support would be found further down, which increases the risk of a prolonged downtrend.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.0950 as Fed Decision Approaches Amid Strength in Dollar and Eurozone Trends

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  • March 19, 2025
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The EUR/USD crossed below the level of 1.0950 during Wednesday morning’s Asian trading, staying at around 1.0935 as market participants take a guarded approach ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate determination. The U.S. Dollar received mild lift from more solid industrial production, contributing to traders’ expectation amid the Fed’s revised rate guidance and economic report. Although the central bank is expected to leave interest rates on hold, the press conference and dot-plot that accompany it could provide key policy guidance. Separately, a large spending budget passed by Germany’s parliament could support the Euro, indicating increased investment activity in the Eurozone’s largest economy. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch for the Fed’s rate move and economic forecasts, which will determine the tone of USD movement going forward. • Robust US industrial production figures support the Dollar; additional strength could put pressure on EUR/USD below significant support levels. • Bundestag approval of a significant spending increase could underpin the Euro and restore investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. • Traders are cautious ahead of Fed commentary; increased volatility anticipated after the decision, affecting short-term EUR/USD direction. As the EUR/USD currency pair declines below 1.0950 in anticipation of the highly expected Federal Reserve interest rate decision, market players are keenly observing major events that may influence the near-term direction. The US Dollar has strengthened after positive industrial production figures, increasing hopes for a more aggressive Fed policy. Investors will closely monitor the Fed’s revised economic forecasts and the dot-plot, which may provide key information on the rate path ahead. In the meantime, Germany’s approval of a huge spending budget brings a possible Euro boost, signaling fresh fiscal support for the Eurozone’s biggest economy. Overall, sentiment is still wary, with volatility set to spike after the Fed announcement. EUR/USD falls below 1.0950 as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to make its interest rate decision and revise its economic forecasts. The stronger US Dollar and Germany’s recently approved budget plan are significant drivers of the pair’s movement. Volatility is likely to increase after the Fed announcement. • EUR/USD falls to about 1.0935 during Wednesday’s Asian session, falling below the 1.0950 mark. • Investors stay on guard in anticipation of the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement and economic forecasts later today. • The Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot-plot and press conference can give hints of future policy directions. • US Dollar appreciates slight strength as underpinned by better-than-expected US industrial production data for February (+0.7% MoM). • Germany’s parliament sanctioned a big spending spree, a sign of possible economic recovery in the Eurozone’s biggest economy. • Market sentiment remains divided, with investors in wait-and-watch mode following the Fed announcement. • Greater volatility anticipated in EUR/USD in the wake of the Fed verdict and reports on inflation projections. The foreign exchange market is in wait-and-watch mode with international investors awaiting the coming interest rate verdict of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Though the central bank is mostly expected to leave interest rates as they are, everyone is looking forward to the press conference and new economic projections for clues on the course of future monetary policy. The latest release of robust industrial production numbers in the U.S. has contributed to the expectation, signaling strength in the economy and adding to further interest in the central bank’s inflation and growth outlook. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, European developments have ushered in a tide of optimism, as Germany’s parliament passed a big-ticket spending plan designed to spur investment. The action is likely to underpin economic recovery efforts in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and potentially bolster market confidence in the region’s growth prospects. With traders waiting on the sidelines for key policy signals, the overall market tone is set by the interplay between U.S. economic vigor and Europe’s revived fiscal efforts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is picking up signs of mild weakness following its fall below the 1.0950 level, reflecting cautious market sentiment pre-Fed decision. The pair is now trading close to 1.0935, with near-term support at the 1.0900 psychological level. A break through this region may pave the way for further bear pressure. On the higher side, resistance is expected to be encountered in the 1.0975–1.1000 area, where sellers are likely to re-enter. Overall, the price action indicates a consolidation period, with investors waiting for a clear direction of breakout after major economic indicators from the U.S. Federal Reserve. FORECAST If the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its policy statement and economic forecasts neutral or dovish, it may cap further gains in the U.S. Dollar. In this context, the Euro could find footing, particularly with Germany’s freshly approved budget plan set to fuel economic sentiment in the Eurozone. Better fiscal prospects in Europe could provide a supportive environment for the EUR/USD pair to move higher if global risk appetite also improves. Conversely, if the Fed hints at a more aggressive policy—i.e., the likelihood of rate hikes or a less aggressive sequence of easing—then the U.S. Dollar will likely pick up even more steam. This will potentially put downward pressure on the Euro, sending EUR/USD lower over the short run. Also, if future Eurozone data does not indicate a robust recovery in spite of Germany’s budget stimulus, market faith in the Euro will further deteriorate, exacerbating the downside risk.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

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