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Gold Prices Soar to New All-Time Highs as Trade War Jitters, Inflation Loom

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  • February 10, 2025
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Prices of gold (XAU/USD) have maintained their bull run and even reached new all-time highs near the $2,896-$2,897 level as haven demand increases amidst heightened trade war jitters and inflationary pressure. US President Donald Trump declared new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, in addition to threatened retaliatory measures, which raised uncertainty and have prompted investors to rush to the safe haven. Meanwhile, upbeat US jobs data and persistent inflation worries are expected to keep the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, providing further support to gold prices. Despite modest US Dollar strength and overbought technical conditions, the fundamental backdrop suggests the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and key inflation data for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum escalate US-China tensions, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold amid economic uncertainty. • Rising inflation fears, fueled by protectionist policies, strengthen gold’s appeal as a hedge against price increases despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. • The Fed’s decision on interest rates remains key, as resilient labor market data and inflation trends could impact gold’s bullish momentum. • Gold faces resistance near $2,900, while overbought RSI signals possible consolidation; key support levels to watch are $2,855 and $2,834. Gold prices continue to rally amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Investors seek refuge in the safe-haven metal as economic uncertainty looms, while inflationary pressures further boost gold’s appeal. Despite the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, resilient US labor market data and persistent inflation could limit room for further rate cuts, supporting gold’s bullish outlook. However, technical indicators signal overbought conditions, suggesting potential consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level, with key support at $2,855 and $2,834 to watch for potential pullbacks. Gold prices surge to record highs amid escalating trade war fears and inflation concerns, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. While the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance supports gold, overbought technical conditions hint at possible consolidation near the $2,900 resistance level. • XAU/USD reaches a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region amid strong safe-haven demand. • Trump’s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports escalate US-China tensions, boosting gold’s appeal. • Protectionist policies may reactivate inflation, reinforcing the reasons to hold gold as a hedge against rising prices. • Strong labor market and inflationary worries might prevent the Fed from reducing interest rates, further supporting gold’s bullish outlook. • A slight USD advance might cap the rally in gold, but the fundamental setup is supportive. • Gold is resisted around the $2,900 area, with overbought RSI conditions pointing to consolidation. • Immediate support lies at $2,855 and $2,834, with a further decline targeting the $2,815-$2,800 range. Gold prices continue their upward trajectory, reaching a fresh all-time high around the $2,896-$2,897 region as investors seek refuge in the safe-haven asset amid rising economic uncertainty. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has intensified fears of a trade war, prompting increased demand for gold. Additionally, concerns over inflationary pressures due to protectionist policies have further strengthened gold’s status as a hedge against rising prices. Meanwhile, the US labor market remains resilient, with a lower-than-expected unemployment rate, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy. Despite modest US Dollar strength, gold maintains its bullish momentum, signaling strong investor confidence in the metal. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a potential short-term consolidation or pullback. The key resistance level stands at $2,900, and a sustained break above this could push prices toward $2,920-$2,930. On the downside, initial support lies at $2,855-$2,854, with stronger buying interest expected around $2,834. If bearish pressure intensifies, the next critical support zone is near $2,815-$2,800. Moving averages indicate continued strength, reinforcing the long-term uptrend, while traders closely watch upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve signals for further price direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend, but overbought conditions on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate the possibility of short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before further gains. The immediate resistance lies at the psychological $2,900 level, and a sustained breakout above this could push prices toward the $2,920-$2,930 range. On the downside, initial support is seen at $2,855-$2,854, with further key levels at $2,834 and $2,815. If gold breaks below these levels, a deeper retracement toward the $2,800 mark could follow. Moving averages continue to move up, specifically 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Traders would watch the short-term momentum indicators and price action for a breakout confirmation in either direction, given that short-term direction could shift based on upcoming US inflation numbers and signals coming from the Fed. FORECAST The current trend in the gold prices continues to remain uptrended; safe haven, as well as inflation, would continue to sustain the uptrend. The bullish momentum suggests that gold could break above the psychological $2,900 mark, with the next potential target around $2,920-$2,930. If trade tensions between the US and China escalate further or inflation fears intensify, gold may see additional upside, attracting more investors seeking a hedge against economic instability. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates will also play a crucial role in sustaining the bullish momentum. Should the Fed signal a more dovish approach due to persistent economic risks, gold could gain further, testing new record highs in the coming weeks. Despite gold’s strong rally, short-term pullbacks remain a possibility due to overbought technical conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is approaching an overextended zone, suggesting the potential for a temporary correction. If profit-taking sets in, initial support is expected near the $2,855-$2,854 region, followed by stronger support at $2,834. A deeper retracement could bring the price down to $2,815 or even the $2,800 psychological level, where fresh buying interest

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Falls Amid BoJ Rate Hike Expectations, Trump’s Tariff Concerns

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  • February 10, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is weakening further amid concerns that former US President Donald Trump might impose further trade tariffs against Japan, weighing on the latter’s economy. Though a marginal U.S. Dollar strength in the USD/JPY exchange rate supports this pair, another round of rising expectations for yet another rate hike by the BoJ limits losses in the Japanese Yen. Investors are closely watching Japan’s bond yields, inflation trends, and global market volatility, as the BoJ’s tightening stance contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach. Additionally, technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, making further downside movement a possibility. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors anticipate another Bank of Japan interest rate hike, driven by rising inflation and real wage growth, supporting the Japanese Yen. • Renewed fears of U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminum imports may pressure Japan’s economy, potentially impacting the Yen’s strength. • A strong U.S. Dollar, supported by upbeat job data and Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, influences the USD/JPY pair’s price movement. • The USD/JPY pair faces strong resistance at this confluence zone, with a potential downside move if the pair fails to sustain above it. The Japanese Yen faces a complex trading environment as investors weigh the impact of potential U.S. trade tariffs, a strong U.S. Dollar, and expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). While hawkish BoJ sentiment and rising Japanese bond yields offer support to the Yen, concerns over Trump’s protectionist policies and their inflationary effects continue to pressure the currency. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, coupled with strong U.S. job data, further strengthens the Dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair volatile. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest that the pair remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, with potential downside risks if selling pressure intensifies. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure amid renewed U.S. trade tariff concerns and a strong U.S. Dollar, despite growing expectations of a BoJ rate hike. While rising Japanese bond yields offer some support, technical indicators suggest USD/JPY remains vulnerable below the 152.50-152.45 resistance zone, with potential downside risks. • Investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again, supporting the Yen and narrowing the U.S.-Japan rate differential. • Renewed fears of U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminum imports add pressure on Japan’s economy and the Yen. • Strong U.S. job data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance provide a lift to the U.S. Dollar, impacting USD/JPY movement. • Higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields support the Yen, limiting deeper losses despite global economic concerns. • USD/JPY faces strong resistance at this key confluence zone, making further gains uncertain. • The IMF points out spillover risks for BoJ rate hikes, which include increased costs of debt servicing and financial pressure on corporates. • The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in a volatile range due to uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, global inflation trends, and central bank decisions. The Japanese Yen remains on the back foot as renewed fears over potential U.S. trade tariffs and a strong U.S. Dollar take a toll on its performance. Former President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raises fears of economic strain on Japan, adding to the Yen’s weakness. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rates, coupled with strong U.S. job data, continues to support the Dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair elevated. Expectations of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also helped limit deeper losses for the Yen, as the widening JGB yields close the interest rate gap between the US and Japan. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/JPY pair faces technical resistance around the 152.50-152.45 confluence zone, suggesting that further upside may be capped short of strong buying momentum. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also warned Japan to remain vigilant about potential financial risks stemming from BoJ’s tightening measures, including rising government debt costs and corporate financial stress. Additionally, Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages have shown steady growth, reinforcing the case for further monetary tightening by the BoJ. With ongoing global market volatility and uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, the Yen’s movement remains highly sensitive to economic and geopolitical developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair remains vulnerable below the key resistance zone of 152.50-152.45, which includes the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Indicators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, signaling a bearish bias, though not yet in the oversold zone. If the pair fails to sustain above this resistance level, fresh selling pressure could push prices lower towards the 151.25 support, followed by the critical 151.00-150.95 zone. A decisive break below this area could open the door for further declines towards the 150.50 psychological level and 149.60 horizontal support. However, a sustained move above 152.50 may trigger short-covering, allowing the pair to reclaim the 153.00 level, with further upside potential depending on market sentiment and fundamental catalysts. FORECAST The USD/JPY pair could see an upward movement if the U.S. Dollar remains strong, driven by positive economic data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. A sustained break above the 152.50-152.45 resistance zone could trigger fresh buying interest, allowing the pair to reclaim the 153.00 psychological level. If bullish momentum persists, the next upside target would be 153.50, followed by the 154.00 mark. Further gains could be supported by renewed concerns over Japan’s economic outlook, particularly if the Bank of Japan takes a slower approach to monetary tightening. Any increase in global risk tone may also keep pushing investors toward the U.S. Dollar, as a haven, and subsequently lift USD/JPY more. On the downside, this pair has found some critical supports at 151.25 now, followed by the 151.00-150.95 zone. It can easily head down from that area, touching the next destination at 150.50; that is again a psychological target. If selling pressure intensifies, USD/JPY could extend its decline towards 149.60 and potentially test the December swing low near 148.65. Factors that

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Struggles Below 50-Day SMA: Vulnerable to Further Decline Amid USD Strength

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  • February 10, 2025
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GBP/USD maintains its weakness near the 1.2400 level, with the pair still unable to gain intraday ground as the US Dollar continues its strength. The currency pair is under headwinds as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England diverge in their outlooks. The Fed will likely keep rates steady due to strong US employment data and growing inflation concerns as a result of Trump’s tariff policies. Technically, repeated failures near the 50-day SMA suggest a bearish bias, and the downside risks are increasing below the 1.2375 support. Any rebound towards 1.2500 may face selling pressure, while a breakdown below 1.2300 could accelerate losses toward mid-1.2200s and beyond. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 1.2500 psychological level remains a strong resistance; a decisive breakout could trigger further gains toward 1.2575-1.2600 in the near term. • Persistent failures near the 50-day SMA indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that any upside attempt may face strong resistance and selling pressure. • The GBP/USD is still limited from a meaningful recovery and a decline in its downward movements as a stronger US Dollar continues, spurred by the threat of Trump’s tariffs and Fed’s stable rate stance. • A convincing breakdown below the support zone 1.2375-1.2370 would accelerate losses toward the 1.2300 round number and further below mid-1.2200s. The GBP/USD remains vulnerable and struggles to hold ground above 1.2400, as the bearish pressure mounts below the 50-day SMA. A stronger US Dollar, given the tariff policies of Trump and the steady rate outlook from the Fed, is limiting any meaningful upside. The key resistance at 1.2500 remains a ceiling, and thus an important level to be reclaimed by bulls. The downside is potentially accelerated toward the 1.2300 mark if a support zone around 1.2375 is breached, with additional downside potential stretching into mid-1.2200s. Traders are looking for a major US economic data and BoE policy signals flow to catch fresh momentum. GBP/USD is suffering below the 50-day SMA, with 1.2500 acting as a strong resistance bar; if it breaks below 1.2375, another fall towards 1.2300 can be expected. US Dollars are gaining across Fed policies and due to Trump’s continued toughness on tariffs, making the pair vulnerable. • Repeated failures near the 50-day SMA indicate a bearish bias, keeping the pair vulnerable to further declines. • Any rebound faces strong resistance at 1.2500; a breakout above this level could signal a potential trend reversal. • A decisive break below this key support zone may accelerate losses toward 1.2300 and mid-1.2200s. • The USD remains strong due to Fed’s rate outlook and Trump’s tariff policies, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. • The economy growth warning from the Bank of England is a major factor continuously straining the GBP with higher downside risks. • Additional strength in US employment and inflation concerns can further help support the Dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD. • Global risk appetite, geopolitical news, and various economic data are likely to drive the next move of the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD remains in selling pressures, as it fails to break above the 50-day simple moving average, which forms a very strong resistance. Now, the psychological level of 1.2500 acts as a big barrier for the pair, and unless the pair decisively breaks above that, any move northward will likely face selling pressure. On the downside, immediate support lies around 1.2375-1.2370, and a break below this zone could accelerate losses towards the 1.2300 round figure, with further downside potential extending to mid-1.2200s. The Bank of England’s cautious economic outlook and subdued market confidence in the UK economy add to the bearish sentiment, keeping the pair vulnerable. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The US Dollar is firm because of the positive employment data and expectations that interest rates by the Federal Reserve are going to remain steady. Additionally, new policies on tariffs introduced by Trump have further added fuel to the fire of inflationary concerns, which could support the USD and cap the recovery of GBP/USD. Market sentiment and risk appetite will be other important factors to determine the direction of the pair. Traders should closely watch upcoming US economic data releases and any shifts in the Fed-BoE policy divergence for fresh trading cues. Until GBP/USD breaks above its key resistance zones, the path of least resistance appears to be downward. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains bearish as it struggles below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing selling pressure. The pair is facing stiff resistance at the 1.2500 psychological level, and only a decisive break above this could trigger further upside towards 1.2575-1.2600. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2375-1.2370, and a sustained break below this zone could accelerate declines toward 1.2300 and mid-1.2200s. The overall setup favors bears, with momentum indicators like RSI and MACD tilting towards further downside. Until the pair recovers its key resistance, selling on rallies is a good strategy. FORECAST GBP/USD is likely to rally if it breaks decisively above the key resistance at 1.2500. A break above that area could propel a bullish move to the 1.2575-1.2600 region, where another resistance barrier awaits. If momentum continues, the pair may surge further toward 1.2645-1.2650, and challenge the 100-day SMA around 1.2715-1.2720. A shift in market sentiment, positive UK economic data, or signs of a more hawkish Bank of England (BoE) stance could provide additional fuel for the recovery. GBP/USD remains vulnerable as long as it trades below the 50-day SMA, with immediate support at 1.2375-1.2370. A breakdown below this level could intensify selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the 1.2300 round figure. If the bearish momentum continues, the next strong support will be seen at mid-1.2200s, and then the 1.2175 area. The strengthening US Dollar, due to solid rate outlook of the Federal Reserve and Trump’s tariff policies, will continue to cap the upside, and this makes the GBP/USD vulnerable to deeper losses.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish Outlook Prevails Below 1.2450 Amid Key Economic Data Releases

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  • January 30, 2025
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GBP/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, trading modestly higher near 1.2445 in early European hours on Thursday. Despite a slight decline in the US Dollar offering temporary support, the pair holds below the key 100-day EMA, maintaining a negative outlook. The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, suggesting potential consolidation. Key support levels lie at 1.2400-1.2390, with further downside targets at 1.2307 and 1.2160. On the upside, resistance is at 1.2570, followed by 1.2645 and 1.2778. Traders are now focusing on the US Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales to be released soon for further direction in markets . KEY LOOKOUTS • A key point below the 100-day EMA continues to maintain downside pressure below this barrier down to 1.2400 and lower 1.2307 and then 1.2160 support. • There is strong major resistance at 1.2570 with potential higher resistance to be seen within 1.2645 near the 100-day EMA and 1.2778 at the last December 10 high. • US Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales could determine the course of short term market action today for GBP/USD. • The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, indicating possible sideways movement before a decisive breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions. The GBP/USD pair continues to trade under bearish pressure, struggling below the 100-day EMA and maintaining a downside bias as long as it remains under 1.2450. Key support levels to watch include the 1.2400-1.2390 region, with further declines potentially extending to 1.2307 and 1.2160 if selling pressure persists. On the positive side, resistance at 1.2570 is the first major barrier, followed by 1.2645 and 1.2778. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales, which could provide fresh directional cues. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI remains near the midline, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a decisive move in either direction. GBP/USD stays bearish below 1.2450, and it finds strong support at 1.2400-1.2390 with a possible slide to 1.2307. It will find resistance at 1.2570 to limit upside potential. The Q4 GDP in the US is going to determine the market’s direction. • As long as it is below the 100-day EMA, GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure. • The first support zone is at 1.2400-1.2390, with further downside risks targeting 1.2307 and 1.2160 if selling momentum increases. • The initial resistance is at 1.2570, followed by stronger hurdles at 1.2645 (100-day EMA) and 1.2778 (December 10 high). • Traders are watching Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales reports, which could impact market sentiment and price direction. • The RSI indicator suggests possible consolidation before a decisive breakout, with no strong momentum in either direction for now. • A mild decline in the US Dollar has helped GBP/USD post modest gains, but the overall trend remains bearish. • If GBP/USD drops below 1.2400, it may trigger further selling pressure, potentially dragging the pair toward 1.2307 and 1.2160. The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend as long as it trades below the 100-day EMA, keeping downside risks in play. The pair currently hovers around 1.2445 in early European trading hours and has struggled to gain any momentum despite a mild decline in the US Dollar. The key support zone lies at 1.2400-1.2390, and a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, driving prices toward 1.2307 and possibly 1.2160. On the flip side, resistance at 1.2570 remains a crucial barrier, with additional hurdles at 1.2645 and 1.2778, which could cap any bullish attempts. The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, suggesting a phase of consolidation before the next major move. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming US Q4 GDP data, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales reports, which could influence GBP/USD price action. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading might boost the US Dollar, reinforcing the bearish outlook for GBP/USD. However, if the data disappoints, the pair could see a temporary recovery, challenging key resistance levels. Traders should also be on the lookout for global risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations since they could enhance volatility in the pair. On balance, these factors present a bearish view in the short run, but only a breakout above primary resistance areas will negate a bearish outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD stays in a bearish trend as long as it stays below the 100-day EMA, which serves as a significant resistance level at the present time. The tandem has support right off the bat at 1.2400-1.2390, coalescing into the psychological level and the Jan 29 low. A firm breakout under this area could trigger further drops to 1.2307 and 1.2160. To the upside, resistance stands at 1.2570, with next target at the 100-day EMA at 1.2645 and the Dec 10 high at 1.2778. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the midline, indicating a potential consolidation phase before a breakout. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands suggest that the pair is trading near the lower boundary, signaling that any break below key support levels could accelerate bearish momentum. FORECAST Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, GBP/USD has key resistance levels that could limit downside movements and trigger a recovery. The first upside barrier is at 1.2570, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. In case the pair breaks above this level, the next resistance would be at 1.2645, the 100-day EMA, which has historically been a strong resistance zone. A break above this level could be sustained and fuel bullish momentum toward 1.2778, the highest level reached on December 10. If it is much weaker than expected in terms of either GDP growth or the labor market in the United States, this could weaken the US Dollar further to support a higher move in GBP/USD. The bearish outlook remains dominant as long as GBP/USD trades below the key 100-day EMA, with immediate support at the 1.2400-1.2390 region. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing

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