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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidation Near Multi-Week Highs with Bullish Potential

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  • February 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting around a multi-week high, just below the psychological 1.0500 level, after its sharp appreciation last week. The technical environment still favors bulls, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and positive oscillators offering scope for further upside. A close above 1.0545-1.0555 may set the stage for further gains towards 1.0600 and higher. But if the pair does not hold 1.0465, it might lead to a drop to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s, with momentum returning to the bears. Traders can monitor key support and resistance levels for possible breakout or retracement strategies. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakout above this confluence area, including the 50% Fibonacci level and 100-day EMA, could propel EUR/USD towards the 1.0600 level. • A firm breakdown below this 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level may indicate weakness, pulling EUR/USD down to 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s in the near future. • A weaker US Dollar still favors the pair’s upward momentum, but any reversal of USD strength may limit gains and initiate fresh falls. • If EUR/USD breaks above the December 2024 swing high, it could confirm an extension of the bullish trend, paving the way for a long-term recovery from multi-year lows. The EUR/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation at its multi-week high, just below the 1.0500 level as investors weigh their next move. The technical bias is bullish, and a possible breakout above the resistance zone of 1.0545-1.0555, which contains the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 100-day EMA, may push the pair to 1.0600 and 1.0630. However, a drop below the support level of 1.0465 may change the trend in favor of the bears, driving the pair lower to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s. The performance of the US Dollar continues to be a prime driver, and any revival in greenback demand has the potential to cap EUR/USD gains or initiate a slide. These levels need to be watched closely by traders to understand the pair’s next move. The EUR/USD pair consolidates below 1.0500, with bullish potential if it breaks above 1.0545-1.0555, heading towards 1.0600. A fall below 1.0465 could lead to further losses towards 1.0400. The US Dollar’s movement continues to be the most important factor in deciding the pair’s next direction. • EUR/USD is trapped in a narrow range close to a multi-week high, unable to break above the crucial 1.0500 psychological level. • Upbeat oscillators and a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are in favor of additional upside momentum. • A breakout above this confluence area (50% Fibonacci retracement + 100-day EMA) may drive EUR/USD towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. • Sustaining above this level is vital for maintaining bullish momentum; a break below could initiate losses towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. • Softer US Dollar is bullish for EUR/USD, but rebound in USD strength could cap further upside. • Failure of support at 1.0465 could lead to increased selling pressure, focusing attention on 1.0200 in a further bearish continuation. • Market participants need to watch price closely around key levels to validate a breakout above 1.0545 or a breakdown below 1.0465 for clear trend direction. The EUR/USD currency pair remains cautiously bullish with solid technical support at 1.0465 serving as an important level to the buyers. A move through the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100-day EMA, may validate further higher potential. With the pair trading above this band, the following targets would include 1.0600 and 1.0630, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies. A successful break above these levels could prolong the recent upturn to 1.0700, further bolstering the uptrend. Optimistic momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD favor this case, indicating bulls might try to regain higher levels in the short term. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But the bear risks persist if EUR/USD cannot hold the 1.0465 support level. A decisive break below this point could signal weakness, dragging the pair toward the 1.0400 psychological level and further down to the mid-1.0300s, which align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deeper sell-off could see EUR/USD testing 1.0200, especially if the US Dollar strengthens due to hawkish Federal Reserve policies or better-than-expected US economic data. Traders must monitor market sentiment and major economic releases, as any change in the strength of the USD would significantly impact the pair’s next significant move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is maintaining its position close to a multi-week high, with the price action being supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January downtrend. The daily chart oscillators are still in positive territory, indicating bullish momentum. A clean break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day EMA, may drive the pair towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. The 1.0465 level is immediate support on the downside, and a fall below this level could trigger falls towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. The 200-day EMA and support trendline will also be responsible for identifying the next direction. Breakout confirmations above resistance or below support should be looked out for by traders to gauge the pair’s next trend. FORECAST The EUR/USD pair will remain bullish as long as it remains above the 1.0465 support level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance level, which encompasses the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day EMA, would propel it further up. In case the pair manages to hold its ground past this area, the next trigger would be 1.0600, then the 1.0630 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is present. A continued rally above this level may prolong the recent upturn, and the pair may move towards 1.0700 in the next few weeks. But for the bullish trend to gain momentum, the buyers must overcome these resistance levels with good volume and strength. On the other hand, a failure to stay above the 1.0465 support level may turn the tide in favor of the bears. A clean break below this

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises to Two-Month High: Weaker US Dollar and Optimism in Markets Fuel Gains

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  • February 17, 2025
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NZD/USD is on its third day of rise, hitting a two-month high of about 0.5750 as the US Dollar stays weak. The Greenback continues to face pressure following weak US Retail Sales data and a delay in Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, which have weakened investor mood. Meanwhile, hope for Trump’s strategy to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis contributes to the risk-on atmosphere, further backing the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and the anticipation of a major rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may limit further increases. Technically, last week’s break above 0.5700 reinforces the bullish scenario, and any short-term corrections offer a chance to buy on the cheap before the key RBNZ meeting. KEY LOOKOUTS        • The US Dollar is still under pressure from dismal Retail Sales and a hold-up in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, solidifying NZD/USD advances. • Optimism over Trump’s suggested solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosts market mood, giving strength to the Kiwi against the Greenback. • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive tone is counter to hopes of a large rate cut by the RBNZ, which could limit NZD/USD’s rally. • Last week’s break above the 0.5700 level adds to bullish momentum, setting NZD/USD up for further gains unless market conditions turn unexpectedly. NZD/USD gains momentum, rising to a two-month high with the US Dollar weakening in the face of soft Retail Sales and the hold-up of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The pair gets support from upbeat market mood following the hopes over Trump’s efforts in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, the widening gap between the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s planned rate reductions might cap additional gains. Technically, the break higher last week above 0.5700 supports a bullish view, and any near-term pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity prior to the important RBNZ meeting. NZD/USD rises to a two-month peak on back of persistent USD weakness and improved market mood. Yet Fed-RBNZ policy divergence could restrict further upside scope. • The pair maintains its upward momentum to around 0.5750 in the wake of persistent USD weakness. • Frustrating US retail sales and delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain to keep Greenback under the pump. • Positive sentiment with respect to how Trump is containing the Russia-Ukraine war bolsters NZD/USD’s strength. • The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve in comparison to hoped-for major cut by the RBNZ later can limit NZD/USD’s gains. • Last week’s break higher past the level of 0.5700 maintains the upside story for NZD/USD. • Any near-term correction would be a buying opportunity before the key RBNZ meeting. • The RBNZ meeting and additional US economic data releases will determine NZD/USD’s next direction. NZD/USD continues its bullish trend after breaching the key 0.5700 resistance level, reaffirming a strong bull trend. The breakout indicates additional upside potential, with the next target at 0.5800. The duo is still comfortably above major moving averages, indicating persistent buying pressure. Moreover, the recent price action also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the bullishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought levels, which may indicate a short-term pullback, but overall, the uptrend is intact as long as the price is above the 0.5700 support level. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA A corrective pullback should find support around 0.5700, a level that was resistance in the past and can now act as a solid floor for buyers. Below this, further support can be found around 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a break above 0.5750 should see further buying, driving the pair to 0.5800 and beyond. However, traders should exercise caution as the upcoming RBNZ meeting could introduce volatility, potentially influencing the Kiwi’s trajectory. Overall, the technical outlook favors the bulls, but market participants should watch for any fundamental shifts that could alter the trend. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has strengthened its bullish outlook after breaking above the key 0.5700 resistance level last week. This breakout indicates strong buying momentum, with the next potential upside target around 0.5800. The duo is trading above significant moving averages, maintaining a bullish inclination, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around overbought levels, which may result in a short-term correction. But any correction will find support at 0.5700, which has become a critical support level. Further appreciation will be seen if buyers continue to drive the prices higher, but care is to be exercised before the RBNZ meeting, which may create volatility. FORECAST NZD/USD’s recent break above the 0.5700 resistance line is a bullish indication of firm buying pressure, and there could be more to go if such momentum is maintained. A strong continuation above 0.5750 could open the door to testing the psychological level of 0.5800, which will serve as the next hurdle. If the bullish trend continues, the pair may even push higher to 0.5850, particularly if the US Dollar stays soft in the wake of softer economic information or a dovish Fed prognosis. Favorable risk attitudes and optimism over developments in geopolitics would also play in favor of the Kiwi, further augmenting its strength against the Greenback in the near term. In spite of the bullish inclination, NZD/USD is still susceptible to possible pullbacks, particularly if the next RBNZ meeting indicates aggressive rate cuts, which would soften the Kiwi. A breakdown below the 0.5700 support level may initiate a more significant correction, with the next significant support at 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. If selling pressure increases, the pair may fall towards 0.5600, where buyers might try to stem further losses. Furthermore, any US Dollar rebound, as a result of hawkish Fed statements or more robust than anticipated economic numbers, may cap NZD/USD’s upside and reverse momentum in favor of the bears.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Targets Fresh Highs Amid Strong Bullish Momentum

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  • February 10, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) continues its bullish momentum, trading near $32.00 per troy ounce, supported by strong technical indicators. The metal remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing its short-term uptrend. With the RSI above 50 and the price advancing within an ascending channel, silver could retest its three-month high of $32.65, with a potential breakout targeting the psychological level of $33.00. Key support levels are found at $31.71, $31.44, and $31.10, with a break below these potentially shifting the trend bearish toward December’s low of $28.74. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver faces a key resistance level at its three-month high of $32.65; a breakout could drive prices toward the psychological barrier of $33.00. • The nine-day EMA at $31.71 acts as immediate support; a breach below this level could weaken bullish momentum and trigger further declines. • The 14-day RSI remains above 50, signaling continued bullish strength; sustained momentum could reinforce the uptrend and push silver toward new highs. • The price of silver trades in an ascending channel and thus is considered very bullish. To continue with further gains, the price has to hold above the lower boundary of $31.10. Silver (XAG/USD) continues with the bullish sentiment. It has traded within the ascending channel and above the crucial support levels. At present, the price has been facing crucial resistance at $32.65, and the break above that can take the price towards the psychological level of $33.00. The nine-day EMA at $31.71 serves as immediate support, while the 14-day EMA at $31.44 and the channel’s lower boundary at $31.10 provide additional safety nets for bulls. With the RSI above 50, market sentiment remains positive, reinforcing the likelihood of further gains unless silver breaks below critical support zones, which could shift momentum bearish toward $28.74. Silver (XAG/USD) continues its bullish trend, facing key resistance at $32.65, with a breakout potentially driving prices toward $33.00. Strong support at $31.71 and the RSI above 50 reinforce the uptrend, while a break below $31.10 could weaken momentum. • Silver faces a crucial resistance at its three-month high; a breakout could push prices toward the psychological level of $33.00. • The nine-day EMA acts as strong support; a break below this could weaken the bullish momentum. • Silver trades within an ascending channel, indicating a strong uptrend unless the lower boundary at $31.10 is breached. • The 14-day RSI remains above 50, signaling continued bullish strength and supporting further upside potential. • Silver remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing a strong bullish outlook. • A break below key support levels ($31.71, $31.44, and $31.10) could expose silver to further downside, potentially testing $28.74. • If silver breaks above $32.65, it could aim for the next key psychological resistance at $33.00, further strengthening the bullish outlook. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to trade within a strong bullish trend, hovering near $32.00 while finding support at key moving averages. The metal stays above the nine-day EMA at $31.71 and the 14-day EMA at $31.44, so short-term momentum is strong. With the RSI above 50, silver is still on a positive track, and a breakout above the critical resistance level of $32.65 may take prices up to the psychological barrier of $33.00. The ascending channel formation continues to support the ongoing uptrend, keeping buyers in control as long as the lower boundary at $31.10 holds. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But if silver cannot hold the bullish momentum, a breakdown below $31.71 may push the price further down and open it to deeper retracements. A break of the 14-day EMA at $31.44 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $31.10 may change the market sentiment and push the price down to December’s low of $28.74. Traders should closely watch resistance at $32.65 and key support levels to gauge the next directional move in silver prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) exhibits strong bullish momentum on the daily chart, trading within an ascending channel while holding above key moving averages. The nine-day EMA at $31.71 and the 14-day EMA at $31.44 act as crucial support levels, sustaining the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating sustained bullishness and leaving room for a further move upwards. The initial resistance level to watch is the three-month high at $32.65. A break above this level might send prices upwards to $33.00. A break below $31.10, which is the lower boundary of the ascending channel, might weaken momentum and leave silver vulnerable to a drop to the level of $28.74. FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) continues to show strong bullish momentum, with technical indicators supporting further gains. The price remains above key moving averages, with the nine-day EMA at $31.71 and the 14-day EMA at $31.44 acting as strong support levels. If silver sustains its current uptrend, it could retest its three-month high of $32.65, a critical resistance level. A breakout above this could push the price toward the psychological mark of $33.00, further strengthening bullish sentiment. The RSI staying above 50 and the price moving within an ascending channel indicate that buyers remain in control, increasing the likelihood of continued upward movement. Despite the bullish outlook, silver faces potential downside risks if key support levels fail to hold. A break below the nine-day EMA at $31.71 could indicate weakening momentum, with the next critical support at the 14-day EMA of $31.44. If the price falls below the ascending channel’s lower boundary at $31.10, bearish pressure could accelerate, exposing silver to further losses. In a worst-case scenario, a sharp decline could push XAG/USD toward its five-month low of $28.74, recorded in December. Traders should closely monitor support levels and key technical indicators to assess potential trend reversals.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum Price Forecast: Will ETH Plunge to $1,200 Amid Trade War Tensions?

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  • February 8, 2025
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Ethereum’s price is facing downward pressure as global trade war tensions rise following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries. The cryptocurrency declined by 4%, mirroring losses in the stock market, with the S&P 500 also dropping significantly. Analysts are warning that if Ethereum breaks below the $2,150 support level and a descending channel’s lower boundary, it could drop to $1,200. However, bearish momentum, as indicated by RSI and Stochastic Oscillator readings, is not translating into net inflows for Ethereum ETFs, which have been better than Bitcoin ETFs, at least. The coming week will be critical as market sentiment is expected to shift with Trump’s trade policies, which are going to impact both traditional and digital assets. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakdown below this key support level may lead to a sharp fall toward the $1,200 price zone. • The market is waiting for Trump’s next move on reciprocal tariffs, which may further increase selling pressure on ETH and other risk-sensitive assets. • Ethereum’s price is increasingly mirroring the S&P 500, meaning further stock market losses could accelerate ETH’s decline in the coming days. • Despite the bearish trends, Ethereum ETFs have performed better than Bitcoin ETFs, which may indicate investor confidence that can stabilize prices. Ethereum’s price trend is still uncertain as it is hovering near key support levels amidst rising global trade tensions. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs has triggered a market-wide sell-off, with Ethereum falling 4% and the S&P 500 plummeting. Failure to hold at the crucial support level of $2,150 could send ETH to a subsidence towards $1,200. But ETF inflows have been increasing lately; this does gain some institutional confidence and signals stabilization in prices. With these correlations moving up between Ethereum and traditional markets, economic developents and decisions of Trump will be the next points in the deciding direction for Ethereum. Ethereum is under downward pressure as Trump’s tariff plans rattle markets, and ETH has fallen 4% with the stocks. If it breaks the support level of $2,150, then a fall to $1,200 is likely. Meanwhile, strong ETF inflows indicate institutional confidence, which may stabilize the price. • ETH fell sharply after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, similar to the stock market losses. • If ETH breaks below this critical level, it may lead to a further fall to $1,200. • Price action of Ethereum tracks the S&P 500 quite closely as its linkages to traditional markets intensify • Market mood remains bearish on account of heightened trade tension and potential jolts in the economy. • Despite sharp declines, net inflows of more than $420 million are witnessed in the case of Ethereum ETFs and surpassed Bitcoin. • RSI and Stochastic Oscillator signals a continuation of bearish sentiment. The latter further increases the prospects of going south. • The ETH can bounce back and make its way toward higher values if it sustains above the support and breaks through the resistance line at $2,817. Ethereum’s price continues to come under strong bearish pressure due to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of imposing reciprocal tariffs on several countries. This sent ripples in global markets. It has shed 4%, following the traditional market losses. For instance, S&P 500 plummeted highly. This would mean that if Ethereum fails to hold the strong support level at $2,150, then the decline may easily reach the next target of $1,200. Technical indicators like RSI and Stochastic Oscillator confirm bearish momentum; hence, ETH may fail to regain upward momentum unless market sentiment somehow improves. Ethereum Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Despite the negative price action, Ethereum ETFs have outperformed Bitcoin ETFs, recording over $420 million in net inflows compared to Bitcoin’s $32.5 million. Institutional investors still see value in Ethereum despite short-term volatility. However, ETH remains highly correlated with the stock market, meaning further declines in equities could accelerate its downward trend. Key levels on the charts which traders must keep an eye open for are at support and resistance, with the bounce from this $2,150 zone and a break over $2,817 making for the big, next, substantial price movements by Ethereum. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum’s technical is bearish since the current fall is at testing the lower edge of the downward channel. Thus, failure in holding that very important support in the vicinity of $2,150 can allow a steeper fall into $1,200. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are well below their respective neutral levels, which means a strong bearish momentum is intact. Furthermore, in the past 24 hours, Ethereum had liquidations in futures worth $65.43 million, an indicator of high market uncertainty. If ETH is able to rebound off the support and break the $2,817 resistance level, it can move towards the reversal, likely hitting $4,500 long-term. FORECAST Ethereum has a pretty good chance for a strong pullback if this holds the significant support levels. If ETH was able to jump off the supporting zone at around $2,150 and pass the resistance marked at $2,817 then it could prove to be quite a reversal move. A bounce above the line of the downward channel could see a further upside towards the psychological level of $4,500. Institutional interest remains strong, as evidenced by the recent $420 million net inflows into Ethereum ETFs, suggesting that long-term investors see value in ETH despite short-term volatility. Additionally, if broader market sentiment improves and risk assets recover, Ethereum could benefit from a renewed bullish phase. Ethereum faces significant risks if it fails to hold the crucial $2,150 support level. A break below this level might extend the sell-off, pushing ETH down toward $1,200. The increasing correlation of Ethereum with the S&P 500 indicates that further declines in traditional markets will drag their prices lower and keep crypto prices lower as well. Bearish technical signs for the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator mainly indicate selling pressure over here. Moreover, if Trump’s trade policies continue to intensify global economic tensions, risk assets such as Ethereum may

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD stabilizes at 1.0400 ahead of US NFP and Fed Interest Rate Expectation

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  • February 7, 2025
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EUR/USD continues within the trading ranges at 1.0400, awaiting release of US NFP, while this is perceived to determine a mood for subsequent Fed interest rates decisions. During the cautious day of the United States Dollar trade, June cut of the federal rate remains pending. The Eurozone is feeling the pinch of economic uncertainty due to concerns over potential US tariffs on European goods. The European Central Bank stays dovish, maintaining an accommodative tone. The technical outlook remains bearish with strong support at 1.0177 and resistance at 1.0500 as the market slices through economic data and global trade risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The NFP report is due out soon and will be driving Fed rate expectations, with good job numbers delaying rate cuts and weak data lifting dovish bets. • The market is still expecting a June rate cut, but any change in the Fed’s tone depending on the data, especially inflation and labor market, could see the US Dollar swing. • The Euro is under pressure due to economic growth concerns, dovish ECB outlook, and potential trade tensions with the US, which could affect the currency’s stability. • EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0500, while support lies at 1.0177, with the 50-day EMA and RSI indicating a sideways to bearish trend in the near term. EUR/USD is being capped within tight ranges around 1.0400 as investors prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will influence the monetary policy outlook by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Strong labor market data may fortify the views that the Fed would like to sustain higher interest rates for more extended periods of time, and poor data will increase the scope of speculations for a rate cut in June. However, the Euro came under pressure from heightened economic uncertainties in the Eurozone, which include the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) and threats of potential US trade tariffs. Meanwhile, technical indicators project a cautious outlook. The main resistance remains at 1.0500, while support is at 1.0177, keeping dealers on their toes. EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.0400. The economy may take shape with regards to Fed rate outlook over US NFP and the more dovish stance by ECB coupled with potential US trade tariffs, weighing on Euro. Keep an eye on resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177. • A healthy jobs report should delay Fed rate cuts, and softer data will increase the bets for dovish rates. • Markets are expecting a June rate cut, but Fed policy change can alter the strength of the USD. • ECB dovish attitude coupled with sluggish growth affects the outlook for the Euro. • Tensions in trade can potentially damage the economy of Eurozone leading to volatile market conditions. • The chart at 1.0500 acts as major resistance for EUR/USD while major support is at 1.0177, and the trend is bearish. • DXY-USD Index still holds much significance and changes in that affect the moves in EUR/USD. • Average Hourly Earnings data will help understand inflationary trends, impacting Fed policy expectations. EUR/USD remains locked in a trading range around 1.0400 as market participants wait for the highly influential US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may significantly alter the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. A strong labor market reading could solidify expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer and support the US Dollar. Weaker employment data will fuel speculation of an earlier rate cut, which puts pressure on the Greenback and could lift EUR/USD. The European Central Bank is dovish; its policymakers are signaling that there is room for further rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over the Eurozone. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA EUR/USD risks from possible trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. US President Donald Trump hinted that he would levy tariffs on goods imported from Europe, a development that will continue to dent the region’s economy and weaken the Euro. Technically, there is still caution as it hovers above resistance at 1.0500 and below support at 1.0177. It stays below the 50-day EMA while its RSI prints a neutral-to-bearish trend. Traders will watch the NFP data, wage growth figures, and further US-Eurozone trade relations developments for directional guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is under pressure, trading at 1.0400, with key resistance at 1.0500 and strong support at 1.0177. The pair is unable to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, indicating a bearish bias. At 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) between 40.00 and 60.00 the pair is neutral to slightly bearish momentum. In case the pair fails to break up at 1.0400, it’s likely to hit further down at 1.0177. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0500 would provide the trigger for a short-term bullish reversal. Traders will be tracking the decisive break above or below these levels to confirm the direction of the next trend. FORECAST However, a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report ahead could send the EUR/USD even higher as the market would be further reoriented into the Federal Reserve cut on June. A weaker labor market puts pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the Euro to strengthen. If the pair can clear the resistance level of 1.0500, it would then open doors for further gains to 1.0600 and then 1.0750. In addition, any hawkish move by the ECB or economic rebound in the Eurozone can strengthen investors’ confidence in the Euro. A softer US stance on threatened tariffs imposed on European merchandise can also be seen to boost the positive EUR/USD sentiment. The pair remains sensitive to downside risks, with this week’s US labor market set to be a potent risk for EUR/USD if the data proves stronger than expected. A quality NFP report should lower the probability that the Fed will cut rates, favoring the US Dollar and driving EUR/USD even lower. Technically, if this pair does not stay atop of 1.0400, key support is located at 1.0177, and then comes a psychological level of 1.0100. Additionally, increasing economic uncertainty within the

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Oil Struggles Amid Supply Concerns and Market Volatility

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  • February 7, 2025
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WTI crude oil remains under pressure, heading for a third consecutive weekly decline amid rising US crude stockpiles, weaker demand signals, and Trump’s push for increased domestic oil production. While Saudi Aramco’s price hike, driven by growing demand from China and India, offers some support, geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions continue to influence market volatility. Technical analysis indicates that WTI faces important resistance around $71.50 and remains sensitive upside if it breaks above $72.50, while persistent downside risks exist if the market falls below $69.50. On balance, prices of oil remain more responsive than ever to dynamics of supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic trends, hence inherently uncertain in the short run. KEY LOOKOUTS • US President Donald Trump’s commitment to boost domestic oil output increases price pressures, prompting worries over supply surplus and market stability. • A sharp 8.664 million-barrel jump in US crude inventories signaled weakening demand, beating expectations and adding bearish pressure on WTI prices. • In response to soaring demand from China and India, Saudi Aramco hiked prices, negating supply disruption caused by the US sanctions on Russian oil. • The retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US oil and LNG inject market uncertainty but the upcoming talks between Trump and Xi may still bring hope to ease trade tensions. WTI crude oil prices are having a hard time finding stability, and they fell for the third week in a row amid supply and demand concerns. US President Donald Trump’s promise to increase domestic oil production is putting further pressure on prices, which creates fear of an oversupplied market. Also, a major 8.664 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories indicates weak demand, and that is increasing bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco’s price hike, driven by a rising demand from China and India as well as supply disruptions out of Russia, provides some support. Trade tensions between the US and China further complicate the outlook, though potential tariff rollback discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping may ease market uncertainty. WTI crude is on its way to its third consecutive weekly decrease as a sharp increase in crude inventories hints at weakened U.S. demand, though at least Saudi Arabia’s price bump, bolstered by soaring Asian demand from India and China, is trying to prop up. • WTI Crude remains one step away to its third-consecutive weekly slide, despite making a slight rest in the selloff trajectory. • US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to boost domestic oil production, putting pressure on prices and heightening fears of a supply surplus. • A stunning 8.664 million-barrel build in US crude inventories—well above estimates—points to softer demand and bears down on oil prices. • Stronger demand from China and India, along with supply disruptions from Russia, forced Saudi Aramco to increase its oil prices, which was somewhat supportive for the market. • China retaliated against US oil, LNG, and coal with retaliatory tariffs even as the two leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping, continue negotiating a trade deal. • The renewed US push to eliminate Iranian oil exports could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market, creating potential supply risks. • Oil prices remain under pressure due to high supply levels, weak demand signals, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies. WTI crude oil prices are under pressure, heading for a third consecutive weekly decline despite a temporary pause in their four-day losing streak. Market sentiment remains bearish as US President Donald Trump reaffirms his commitment to increasing domestic oil production, aiming to push prices lower. This already paints a picture where a supply surplus looms in the horizon, an added weight on crude prices. To compound matters, US crude stockpiles surged by 8.664 million barrels, way above market expectations, hinting at weakening demand and attributing to the downtrend in oil prices. WTI Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Saudi Aramco, on the other hand, was raising oil prices. Increasing demand from China and India and the supply disruptions in Russia due to US sanctions gave some support to the market. Trade tensions between the US and China continued adding volatility, and Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on US oil and LNG. But hopes for relieving tensions continue as both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to engage in talks over possible rollbacks of tariffs. Moreover, the renewed US drive to eliminate Iranian oil exports introduces supply risks that may result in further escalation of fluctuations in the oil market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil currently encounters significant resistance near the $71.50 level, struggling to hold on to an upward momentum in the wake of a four-day losing spree. The 50-day moving average is hovering around $72.00, which is a key resistance zone, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below the 50 mark, which means that the bullish momentum is weak. On the downside, immediate support is seen near $69.50, and a break below this level may accelerate declines toward the $68.00 psychological mark. MACD indicator indicates bearish continuation of the trend, as the signal line remains below the histogram. WTI, in order to have a possible reversal, has to break above $72.50 decisively, which might then open a way for the retest of the resistance zone at $75.00. FORECAST WTI crude oil is prone to rebounding if the mentioned above resistance zones are broken. A break above $71.50 can be sustained and attract buying interest toward the resistance zone of $72.50, where the 50-day moving average is aligned. In case the momentum picks up, a rally toward $75.00 is possible, especially if geopolitical risks escalate, such as Middle East tensions or supply disruptions. Any positive news on US-China trade relations, such as rollbacks in tariffs, will help boost global demand sentiment and provide further upside momentum. A weaker US dollar may also provide support to crude prices as it makes oil cheaper for foreign buyers. On the negative side, WTI is still susceptible to further declines if supply pressures continue

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Steady around 0.5700, Traders Keep an Eye on US NFP and Fed Policy Cues

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  • February 7, 2025
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NZD/USD stays firm around 0.5700 as market players remain cautious of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release which is expected to have an influence on the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar keeps up its rebound momentum with support coming from a jump in Treasury yields, pushing the Dollar Index DXY toward 107.70. Market sentiment is fragile due to rising risk aversion with all these uncertainties about global trade. But ongoing discussions about tariffs by US and China could offer some comfort. Further, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to slash 50 basis points in February and put further pressure on Kiwi Dollar. KEY LOOKOUTS US Nonfarm Payrolls, which would shape monetary policy at the Fed, would impact the NZD/USD pairs volatility. • The Greenback’s rebounding, with a boost from the Treasury yields and economic data, may put upward pressure on NZD/USD if risk aversion increases. • Markets are pricing in 92% of a 50 basis-point rate cut in February, which can weigh on the New Zealand Dollar. • Risk sentiment may shape the movement of NZD/USD as US and Chinese leaders discuss potential rollbacks of tariffs. NZD/USD remains in a cautious range as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The US Dollar continues to recover, bolstered by rising Treasury yields and stronger economic data, pressuring the Kiwi Dollar. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains fragile with trade uncertainties continuing, though the discussions between the US and China regarding potential rollbacks of tariffs might bring some comfort. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to cut its rates by 50 basis points in February, adding more downside risks to NZD/USD as the market has priced in a high probability of further easing. NZD/USD remains range-bound ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data that may impact the Federal Reserve policy. The greenback has managed to regain ground, buoyed by Treasury yields, and has been exerting pressure on the Kiwi Dollar. Expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in February by the RBNZ are also affecting NZD/USD. • A US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to impact the Fed’s monetary policy and trigger market volatility. • Greenback trades are regaining strength on the back of rising treasury yields with DXY approaching 107.70. • Markets are expecting that in February, there will be a 50-point rate cut; it will give pressure on New Zealand Dollar. • Increased risk aversion due to trade and economic insecurity is impacting upside momentum for NZD/USD pairs. • The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.22% and 4.44%, supporting the US Dollar against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. • Market sentiment and the movement of NZD/USD may be influenced by the discussions between US and Chinese leaders regarding the possible rollbacks of tariffs. • NZD/USD is still relatively subdued following the weak performance of the previous session, failing to gain bullish momentum due to a cautious market outlook. NZD/USD stands at the levels around 0.5700 and is currently flat as participants take a wait-and-see approach before US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) arrives and is known to impact Federal Reserve monetary policy prospects. Meanwhile, the Dollar index continues rallying due to upward momentum in the Treasury yields; it has also pushed the Dollar Index towards levels around 107.70. Risk sentiment remains fragile as the world continues to be uncertain about global trade, especially on the US-China front, though potential tariff rollbacks may help alleviate some of the pain. Moreover, the latest US Initial Jobless Claims were higher than anticipated, which added another layer of uncertainty to the market. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Another reason the Kiwi Dollar is in a tough situation is that it is expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ, will announce a 50 basis point rate cut in February, taking interest rates to 3.75%. With market expectations at a 92% probability of additional monetary easing, NZD/USD may suffer from increased pressure on the downside. The weak price action exhibited by the pair is due to investors waiting for key economic data that will steer short-term price action. US Treasury yields continue to climb, adding further strength to the US Dollar, which restricts NZD/USD’s recovery from the previous session’s losses. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading near 0.5680, unable to make a sustainable rally as it was capped by the resistance area of 0.5700. The pair remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), suggesting a bearish trend. A break below the immediate support at 0.5660 could be extended further lower toward 0.5620. A decisive move above 0.5700 may push the pair further to the next resistance at 0.5745. The RSI is near the neutral 50 level, showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Traders will carefully monitor the US NFP releases for breakouts or further drops in NZD/USD. FORECAST NZD/USD will drop further if NFP data strengthen the case of a hawkish Federal Reserve which pushes the Dollar higher. Higher Treasury yields after a strong job report will add to the views of prolonged periods of higher interest rates, with NZD/USD falling towards key support 0.5660. If the bearish momentum is maintained, the next target could be 0.5620, with further declines towards the psychological level of 0.5600 in an extended selloff. Expectations of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February could keep the Kiwi Dollar under pressure in the near term. On the positive side, if US economic data disappoints and weakens the US Dollar, NZD/USD might recover above 0.5700. A softer NFP report might fuel speculation of an earlier-than-expected policy shift by the Federal Reserve, which would reduce the strength of the Dollar. The pair could test resistance at 0.5745, and further gains may extend toward 0.5780. Any positive news in US-China trade relations, such as the rollbacks of tariffs, will enhance risk sentiment and

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Commodities Gold

Gold price Struggles near record highs as USD gains, Fed Rate speculations in focus

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  • February 7, 2025
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The gold price XAU/USD has remained at near record levels but failed to make any real momentum as the US Dollar was slightly higher going into the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Though trade war tensions and a general expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut should keep the precious metal well supported, caution continues to prevail in bullish traders’ camp. Deteriorating US Treasury yields and persisting economic jitters remain supportive of safe-haven gold. However, the technical indicators provide an overbought reading-a precursor to near-term consolidation before an extended move, after which the key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will watch the breach down for further correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next NFP report will dictate the market expectations about the Fed’s rate path and, hence, the USD demand and the gold price direction in the near future. • Multiple Fed rate cuts by 2025 are supporting gold, but strong labor market data could alter this scenario. • Increasing geopolitical risks and retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US goods improve the safe-haven appeal of gold, capping downside risks despite short-term USD strength. • Gold remains near record highs, but RSI signals overbought conditions, with key support at $2,855 and resistance near $2,900 for further momentum. Gold price remains near record highs as investors weigh multiple factors, including the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and escalating US-China trade tensions. While the weakening US Treasury yields and safe-haven demand support gold, a modest USD uptick ahead of key economic data creates short-term uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, signaling a potential consolidation before any further uptrend. Key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will be crucial in determining the next move, while resistance near $2,900 could challenge bullish momentum in the near term. Gold price lingers around record highs due to Fed rate cut expectations and trade tensions, yet it faces strong resistance from a modest USD uptick. Determinative key levels will be for the next step: $2,855 and $2,900. The technical indicators go even further to suggest short-term consolidation. • Gold refuses to hold its ground off the all-time high for a modest USD uptick. • Market speculations of several Fed rate cuts in 2025 support gold’s bullish view even with positive labor market numbers. • The NFP release will influence USD demand and is likely to push gold in one direction or another. • Growing geopolitical tensions, along with China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, will continue to boost gold’s safe-haven status. • Declining bond yields make non-yielding assets, such as gold, more appealing and add more support. • This RSI indication of overbuying could eventually lead to temporary consolidation before entering an extended rise. • Areas of support here are at the levels of $2,855 and $2,800 and resistance is capped near $2,900 for the bulls Gold price in XAU/USD stays almost at all time highs but under pressure due to a slight upside in the USD as investors focus on the NFP from the US. While positive expectations about rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US Treasury yields continue to support the bullish outlook on metal, short-term consolidation seems probable because of technical overbought conditions. Apart from those factors, geopolitical risks, particularly increasing tensions in the US-China trade, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, preventing a more significant downtrend despite some profit-taking. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The price of gold is trading close to record highs due to the expectations of cuts in the Federal Reserve rate and safe-haven demand amid US-China trade tensions. However, a modest increase in the US Dollar ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report has capped the further upside and thus the market sentiment is cautious. The technical indicators are also pointing towards an overbought situation, and a short-term pullback may occur before the next breakout. The important resistance levels are at $2,900 while support at $2,855 and $2,800 will definitely be the make or break situation. Traders are closely observing any significant change in economic data and geopolitical development which will define gold’s price action in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend but faces resistance near the $2,900 level, while key support is seen at $2,855 and $2,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the market is overbought, so the price might enter into short-term consolidation before another breakout. A decisive move above $2,900 will open the way to further growth, while a break below $2,800 will trigger additional selling pressure. Although the moving averages stay aligned in favour of bulls and continue to confirm the overall bullish trend, traders should expect corrections before fresh long positions. FORECAST Gold prices remain in long-term bullish, supported by expected multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, and declining U.S. Treasury yields. If the NFP data does indicate a weakness in the US labor market, it would bode well for gold, potentially pushing prices beyond the key resistance at $2,900. A sustained move above this would open the path for further rallies towards $2,950 and even $3,000 within the next week or so. Furthermore, growing US-China trade tensions and a general sense of economic uncertainty might keep demand pretty high for the yellow metal since investors are still looking for safety from market volatilities. Despite its strong rally, gold faces short-term downside risks due to overbought technical conditions, with the RSI signaling the possibility of a pullback. If the US Dollar strengthens further or NFP data beats expectations, gold could see a correction toward the $2,855 and $2,800 support levels. A decisive break below $2,800 could trigger additional selling pressure, potentially dragging prices toward $2,750 or lower. However, some fundamentals – such as monetary policy by central banks and political uncertainty – would be unlikely to let gold decline sharply and will keep the gold supported in the long term.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Surges on Waning Trade War Risks and ECB Rate Cut Expectations

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  • February 5, 2025
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EUR/USD is trading above 1.0400 as the US Dollar drops on the back of dwindling fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China. The investors are of the view that the extent of the trade war will remain restricted, thereby easing the risk premium on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates, reinforcing market speculation about further policy easing. Even though the Euro underperformed against other major currencies, EUR/USD continues to gain as traders focus on upcoming US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI. Technical indicators are showing cautionary signals; however, important resistance lies at 1.0500, while support stands close to 1.0177, so the pair is in a vulnerable recovery phase. KEY LOOKOUTS • US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for January would have implications on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. • The European Central Bank is expected to continue reducing interest rates, with traders pricing in three more rate cuts in upcoming policy meetings. • Market sentiment remains cautious as the US and China impose tariffs, though investors believe the trade war will not escalate further globally. • EUR/USD faces key resistance at 1.0500, while major support levels lie at 1.0177 and 1.0100, shaping the pair’s near-term price action. Investors are keeping a close eye on key developments affecting EUR/USD, such as US economic data releases due in the coming days, like the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which may help guide the Federal Reserve’s policy course. On the other hand, the European Central Bank continues to cut interest rates, with the market awaiting more cuts given its confidence in inflation returning to target levels. Trade tensions between the US and China remain a problem, but the relatively narrow scope of the situation had pushed fears over a full-scale global trade war to the backburner, diminishing the risk premium on the US Dollar. In technical terms, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a critical resistance level at 1.0500 and may find support at 1.0177 and 1.0100 to determine the next direction. EUR/USD continues to gain as fears of a trade war ease and ECB rate-cut expectations weigh on the US Dollar. Investors await key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which could influence the Fed’s policy stance. Meanwhile, technical resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177 will shape the pair’s near-term direction. • The pair goes higher as the US Dollar weakens on the back of more alleviated trade war concerns and reduced risk premium. • US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI would be out and could impact the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. • Interest rate cuts are expected by the European Central Bank and monetary policy easing is already priced in the markets. • Investors believe that the trade war will not spread across the globe and see fears of an economic slowdown. • President Trump lets loose on the EU: Tariffs are in the cards. Adds to EUR’s unclear direction. • The level remains a strong barrier for EUR/USD, and a breach above can be seen as a further sign of bullish strength. • These levels become significant support downwards, and their breach can be used as a sign of renewed bearish pressure on the pair. It is now a fledging currency as EUR/USD surged above 1.0400 after a weak US Dollar amid slight improvements in the trade war concerns and eventually in wait of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Investors are keenly awaiting key US economic data, including ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which may provide direction to future policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined as market participants assume that the trade war between the US and China will remain limited in scope, reducing the Greenback’s risk premium. However, concerns persist about potential tariff threats from President Trump on the European Union, which could impact the Euro’s stability in the coming weeks. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the technical front, EUR/USD faces significant resistance at the 1.0500 level, which, if breached, could signal further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, key support levels at 1.0177 and 1.0100 provide downside protection, with a break below these points potentially leading to renewed bearish pressure. The European Central Bank’s continued monetary easing stance has also weighed on the Euro, as traders anticipate further rate cuts to support economic stability. As investors find their way through these macroeconomic and geopolitical changes, EUR/USD continues to trade in a volatile range, waiting for more directional signals from upcoming economic data and policy decisions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a cautious recovery mode, trading just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0440, which indicates that the trend is still bearish. The pair is facing strong resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500, and a decisive break above this could trigger further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the neutral 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias. On the downside, key support levels are observed at 1.0177 and 1.0100, with a break below these levels potentially leading to increased bearish pressure. EUR/USD remains stuck in a trading range as the market fundamentals continue to be analyzed by traders and wait for the right trigger that will take the currency pair on its next major move. FORECAST If EUR/USD breaks above 1.0500, there is still potential for further gains. A continuation of the trend beyond this point could lead to a bullish surge to the psychological resistance at 1.0600. Positive Eurozone economic data in combination with a softer US Dollar, which is being traded down on expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut rates, may continue fueling buying. Moreover, if risk-on sentiments persist and concerns of trade tensions between US and China keep dwindling, investors may prefer the Euro, hence continuing to

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