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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Struggles Near Multi-Week Low Ahead of Sensitive US CPI Data: Bearish Momentum Picks Up

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  • July 15, 2025
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GBP/USD pair is trading in close bearish consolidation in the area of 1.3430, just above a multi-week low, while waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Downside pressure on the pair increases due to low UK macroeconomic data and increasing expectations of an August Bank of England rate cut. Conversely, the US Dollar continues to remain fairly supported with dwindling hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate reduction. Technically, the fall below the 100-period SMA confirms bearish expectations, although oversold conditions in RSI can expect intraday bounces prior to the resumption of the pair’s declining trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong reading may be bullish for the USD and further weaken GBP/USD; a weak print could offer temporary relief for the pair. • Bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England in August continue to be high, further boosting the bearish sentiment against the Pound. • The attempts at recovery are expected to encounter stiff resistance around 1.3470 and the psychological 1.3500 level. • Sustained price action below the 1.3400 level is expected to trigger new selling, subjecting the pair to targets on the downside such as 1.3355 and 1.3300. GBP/USD currency pair continues to trade around its multi-week low at around the 1.3430 level, supporting the timid sentiment from the traders in view of the vital US CPI release. Market mood is still bearish due to weak UK economic figures and increasing speculation over an August Bank of England rate cut against the backdrop of more cautious Fed on easing. While the US Dollar has drawn back from recent highs, any rally in GBP/USD will be capped by technical resistance in the 1.3470–1.3500 area. Overall, the bias remains to the downside unless inflation data causes a change of direction. GBP/USD is trading close to a multi-week low of 1.3430 as the market waits for US CPI numbers. Bearishness remains after poor UK data and increasing BoE rate cutting expectations. Upside is contained below 1.3500, and new downside risks only below 1.3400. • GBP/USD is in a bearish consolidation close to the 1.3430 mark, just above a multi-week low. • Market participants are wary before the crucial US CPI numbers, which may impact the Fed’s rate expectations. • Soft UK macroeconomic figures bolster the argument that the BoE might cut rates in August. • Disagreement between policy expectations for the BoE and Fed puts additional pressure on the Pound. • The pair has just broken below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, a negative technical warning. • RSI is oversold, which implies possible short-term intraday bounces. • The key support is 1.3400, with the following downside targets being 1.3355, 1.3300, and 1.3265. The GBP/USD currency pair is in pressure at present as traders wait for the release of the most recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. General sentiment remains defensive, with investors not wanting to make big bets before they know the way US inflation is headed, which would have implications for the Federal Reserve’s next course of action. Meanwhile, the British Pound remains under headwinds as a result of a weaker economic performance within the UK, in the aftermath of a series of disappointing releases on data, which furthered the expectations of an August rate cut by the Bank of England. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This difference in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has been behind a fundamentally bearish environment for GBP/USD. Whilst the Fed is likely to keep its finger on the rate hike trigger, the BoE is coming under increasing pressure to relax monetary conditions to prop up the UK economy. Consequently, market sentiment is still against the Pound, and traders are watching both economic data and central bank rhetoric from both the Atlantic and the Atlantic’s eastern seaboard very closely. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD recently fell below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour time frame, indicating a bearish trend in momentum. In spite of the downward pressure, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently stuck in oversold region, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation or slight bounce. Yet, any bounce is expected to encounter stiff resistance around the 1.3470–1.3500 zone, which might limit gains and keep the pair in selling pressure. A firm break below 1.3400 would most probably seal further losses, with the possibility of greater losses to come. FORECAST Should the coming US CPI data underwhelm and precipitate an across-the-board decline in the US Dollar, GBP/USD may experience an interim rebound. Early resistance should be at 1.3470, with a crossing of this line having a good chance of propelling the pair to the psychological 1.3500 barrier. Persistent force there could induce a short-covering rally with additional upside targets at 1.3550 and, potentially, 1.3600–1.3625, depending on market and momentum factors. To the downside, a clear break of the 1.3400 support area would most probably consolidate the bearish trend. In that event, GBP/USD might accelerate lower to 1.3355, with more losses hitting the 1.3300 mark. A further drop may even stretch to the 100-day Simple Moving Average, which is currently at around the 1.3265 area, as the market reacts to the increasing divergence between BoE and Fed policy expectations.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Tests Key 1.1250 Resistance: Will Bulls Break Descending Channel?

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  • May 20, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is testing a crucial resistance level around 1.1250, the upper end of its descending channel, with divergent technical indications. Although the general trend is still bearish due to the ongoing channel pattern, short-term momentum has increased as the pair is above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is sustaining marginally above 50. Initial support at 1.1210 and stronger support at 1.1093, where a break through might expose the pair to further losses. On the other hand, a successful break above 1.1250 might change the outlook to bullish, setting the stage for a rally to the April high at 1.1573. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a possible breakout above the resistance of the descending channel. A convincing move higher might change momentum in the bulls’ favor. • A breakdown below this level might indicate dissipating momentum and set off a short-term pullback. • A drop below this region would confirm a bearish continuation and leave the way open toward lower levels at 1.0951 and 1.0840. • The 14-day RSI sitting just above 50 is a principal strength gauge—further upward movement could confirm bullish potential, whereas a slide below might underpin renewed downside pressure. The EUR/USD pair should be watched closely as it challenges the important resistance level of 1.1250, which is the top of its downtrend channel. A breakout above the level may indicate a reversal to the upside, particularly since the pair is trading above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is slightly above 50. Non-breaking may, however, reinforce the current bearish trend, with initial support at 1.1210 and deeper support around 1.1093. A conclusive fall below these levels may open the way for further declines towards 1.0951 and possibly as low as 1.0840 in upcoming sessions. EUR/USD is probing significant resistance at 1.1250, the top of its downtrend channel. A break may mark a bullish reversal, while breakdown can see further downtrend towards support at 1.1210 and 1.1093. •  EUR/USD is probing the upper edge of its falling channel at 1.1250, which is an important resistance point. •  The pair is quoted above the 9-day EMA (1.1210), reflecting short-term positive momentum. •  RSI is still just above 50, reflecting a weak bullish inclination. •  Initial support is at 1.1210, with firmer support at the 50-day EMA around 1.1093. • A fall through 1.1093 could see a further drop towards 1.0951 and the channel’s lower boundary around 1.0840. • Strong buying momentum could take the pair to 1.1573, the April 21 high. • The general trend is still bearish, except in case of a confirmed break above 1.1250. EUR/USD pair remains under the spotlight because it is still a point of concentration in international currency markets. As both the United States and the Eurozone experience important economic events, investors are closely monitoring this significant currency pair for indications of the overall sentiment on the markets. Trends in inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical events are all contributing to the direction of the pair and affecting trading strategies. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are also closely watching economic data from both blocs, such as employment statistics, GDP growth, and central bank statements. These factors not only influence currency valuation but also investor confidence and cross-border capital flows. As the global financial environment continues to develop, the EUR/USD continues to serve as an important gauge of economic equilibrium between the Eurozone and the U.S. economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is now probing a pivotal resistance level of about 1.1250, which is the top line of its downtrend channel. The fact that the pair is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicates some short-term bullishness, and the fact that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 50 mark indicates a neutral but slightly optimistic market tone. Important support levels to monitor are the 9-day EMA at 1.1210 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A break above the channel resistance could be an indication of trend reversal, whereas a failure to sustain present gains can cause renewed pressure on the downside. FORECAST EUR/USD manages to break above the major resistance level at 1.1250, it can mark the beginning of a bull run. This breakout can draw additional buying interest, which could propel the pair to the next resistance level of 1.1350. A strong push above this level can lead to a journey to 1.1573, which was the April high. Favorable Eurozone economic data or a change in market perceptions on U.S. interest rates could also drive higher. Conversely, a failure to penetrate 1.1250 can lead to fresh selling pressure. The first support is located at 1.1210, close to the 9-day EMA, with higher support at the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A strong breach through these levels would speed the decline, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper levels at 1.0951 and possibly towards the lower edge of the descending channel at 1.0840. Poor Eurozone numbers or improved U.S. economic growth might further support the bearish expectations.

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