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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Prediction: Testing Important Support at 0.5700 With Deteriorating Momentum

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  • March 25, 2025
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NZD/USD keeps losing ground, heading towards the important psychological support level of 0.5700 with deteriorating medium-term momentum. Though the pair is still in an uptrend channel, the 14-day RSI falling below 50 indicates a possible bearish trend. A continued dip below the 50-day EMA of 0.5716 heightens the risk of further falls to 0.5660 and potentially the monthly low at 0.5593. But if NZD/USD rallies above the 50-day EMA, it may regain momentum, testing the nine-day EMA of 0.5744 and potentially rising to the March high at 0.5832. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive break below this level may amplify bearish momentum, pushing NZD/USD to 0.5660 and possibly 0.5593. •A rebound above this level would recover medium-term bullish momentum, and the nine-day EMA would be retested at 0.5744. •The 14-day RSI falling below 50 indicates diminishing buying pressure, which raises the risk of further losses. •Should bullish momentum improve, NZD/USD could test its three-month high with further resistance at 0.5880. NZD/USD is on the back foot as it approaches the psychological 0.5700 support, with the fading 14-day RSI flashing a possible turn to the south. A breakthrough below this will propel the pair towards the base of the ascending channel at 0.5660 and conceivably towards the monthly low of 0.5593. Yet, a bounce back above the 50-day EMA at 0.5716 can reignite bullish momentum to retest the nine-day EMA at 0.5744. If the pair is able to break above this resistance, it can gain more momentum towards the March high of 0.5832, with further resistance at 0.5880. NZD/USD is probing the important support level of 0.5700, with bearish pressure increasing as the 14-day RSI falls below 50. A penetration below this level may drive the pair to 0.5660 and 0.5593, while a rally above the 50-day EMA of 0.5716 may reinstate bullish pressure, taking the level to 0.5744 and higher. • A penetration below this level may fan bearish pressure to 0.5660 and 0.5593. • Indicative of fading buying pressure, raising the prospect of further decline. • A bounce above here could restore bullish momentum. • Serves as the next resistance point if the pair rallies. • A breakdown below here could confirm a more bearish tilt. • If bullish momentum re-emerges, the pair might retest the March high. • The top of the rising channel might limit further advance. The NZD/USD currency pair is still the focus in the forex market since investors follow its performance closely amid changing economic environments. The movements of the currency pair are determined by variables including global market mood, releases of economic data, and policies from central banks. With continued talk of inflation, interest rates, and trade policies, investors are looking at broader economic data that can influence the New Zealand and U.S. economies. Market players are also taking into account external considerations like geopolitical events and movements in commodity prices, which have the potential to significantly influence investor sentiment. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Furthermore, the U.S. dollar’s strength relative to the New Zealand dollar tends to be influenced by economic data, such as employment data, GDP growth, and patterns of consumer spending. Any movement in these factors may affect trading patterns, resulting in market positioning adjustments. The traders are also considering risk sentiment, as developments in international financial markets may induce demand for safe-haven currency such as the U.S. dollar or risk currency such as the New Zealand dollar. As economic circumstances develop, market players remain vigilant and sensitive to emerging developments that may frame the long-term direction of the NZD/USD cross. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD shows weakening momentum as the pair lingers close to crucial support levels. The price is still in an uptrend channel, but a recent fall below crucial moving averages indicates short-term pressure. The 14-day RSI dipping below 50 indicates decreased buying strength, raising the likelihood of further downside action. But if the pair bounces back above its moving averages, it may regain bullish momentum, and hence potential resistance tests. Traders closely observe support and resistance levels, trendlines, and momentum indicators to predict the pair’s next direction in the market. FORECAST Should NZD/USD regain traction, a bounce above principal resistance levels will enhance bullish sentiment. A bounce above near-term moving averages might draw buyers, generating a move towards higher resistance levels. Better risk appetite, positive economic reports, or a declining U.S. dollar can further drive the upward move. Should bullish momentum prevail, the pair can test earlier highs, with further gains likely if market conditions continue to be positive. On the downside, a break below key support levels could trigger further selling pressure. Weak economic indicators, stronger U.S. dollar demand, or risk-averse market conditions may contribute to downward movement. If selling pressure intensifies, NZD/USD could move toward lower support zones, with potential for extended losses if bearish sentiment prevails. Traders will closely monitor price action for confirmation of a deeper decline or possible stabilization.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Set for Further Upside as BoJ Rate Hike Bets Build and US-Japan Rate Differentials Narrow

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  • March 6, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) reversed its intraday declines against a faltering US Dollar (USD) and is trading close to a multi-month high, fueled by increasing bets for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rising JGB yields and the decreasing rate differential between the US and Japan remain supportive of the JPY. Nevertheless, fears of US tariffs on Japan, rising US Treasury yields, and positive risk sentiment in the market could cap further appreciation of the safe-haven currency. While the technical indicators hint at a bearish consolidation in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due to be released, which may provide more guidance. A fall below the 148.00 mark is still feasible, while the 150.00 level can act as resistance to any expected bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market expects further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to support the JPY and tighten the US-Japan yield differential. • Future Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other jobs numbers will impact USD sentiment and could guide the next significant move for USD/JPY. • Fears of additional tariffs by the US against Japanese imports could bring uncertainty and affect risk sentiment, which can influence JPY’s safe-haven demand. • USD/JPY is marked at important support around 148.00, with a breakdown lower to intensify downside potential, while resistance around 150.00 might limit rebounds. Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in the spotlight as investors watch for major economic and geopolitical drivers underpinning its direction versus the US Dollar (USD). Hopes for additional rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still underpin the JPY, reducing the US-Japan yield gap and making the currency stronger. In the meantime, the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be a key driver, dictating USD sentiment and determining the next direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Furthermore, fear of possible US tariffs on Japanese imports introduces a degree of uncertainty, which may affect risk appetite and propel demand for safe-haven currencies such as the JPY. Technically, the 148.00 support is still key, with a breach through it possibly fueling further losses, while the 150.00 psychological resistance could limit any near-term bounces. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of BoJ rate hike expectations and a declining US-Japan yield gap. But future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures and fears of possible US tariffs on Japan could sway market sentiment. The major technical levels of 148.00 support and 150.00 resistance will decide the next big move in USD/JPY. • Increasing speculation of additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate increases underpins the JPY and reduces the US-Japan interest rate spread. • The JPY is at a multi-month high against the USD, erasing intraday losses as part of the broader USD weakness. • The coming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and other jobs data will be pivotal in guiding the direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Concerns that the US is going to impose additional tariffs on Japan introduce uncertainty and could influence market sentiment. • Higher Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and declining US Treasury yields make JPY stronger against the USD. • As much as JPY gains on safe-haven demand, rising US bond yields and positive risk tone could keep further gains in check. • USD/JPY has significant support at 148.00, while resistance around 150.00 can cap potential rallies, setting the stage for the next big move. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to benefit from increasing hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to hike interest rates. The change in monetary policy is a testiment to Japan’s changing economic terrain, where economic stability and inflationary pressures have become central concerns. The increase in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields also indicates a shift away from the nation’s historically ultra-loose monetary policy. Consequently, investors are becoming more confident in the JPY as a solid alternative during times of global economic uncertainty. Moreover, Japan’s economic resilience and government policies to maintain growth continue to support market sentiment towards the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical and trade-related issues continue to be significant determinants of market conditions. The recent talks about the possibility of US tariffs on imports from Japan have generated wary mood, given that trade policy can have a broader impact on economic relations between the two countries. Market participants are keeping a close eye on events, as a change in trade relationships may affect Japan’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, the global financial market is keenly watching major economic indicators, especially in the US, where employment figures and fiscal policies might have an impact on wider currency movements. During these events, the JPY continues to be a key factor in the forex market, a reflection of Japan’s economic prowess and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating in a familiar range after a sharp drop from its yearly high around 159.00. The present price action implies a bearish consolidation phase, with momentum indicators on the daily chart remaining in negative ground but not yet triggering oversold readings. This suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist, with major support at the 148.00 level, which, if broken, could speed further losses toward the 147.35 zone. On the positive side, the 149.50-150.00 area represents instant resistance, and any movement above this can possibly lead to a short-covering rally. But overall market sentiment and technical factors will then dominate the move in the next big move in the pair. FORECAST If sentiment is changed in the direction of the US Dollar (USD), then the USD/JPY can make a northward movement if there are any positive surprises on US economic numbers, like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), in the near future. A good jobs report would underpin the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain prudent in the rate-cut stance, favoring the USD. Moreover, if the world risk appetite gets better and equity markets continue

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strength Fades as Range-Bound Trading Takes Center Stage

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  • February 28, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a range-bound stage following the recent two-week Pound Sterling strength that has now faded. According to analysts at UOB Group, although the sharp decline in GBP may be prolonged, oversold levels point to any drop being contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 level. A decisive dip below 1.2570 is not anticipated in the short term, with the overall expectation for GBP/USD to trade between 1.2520 and 1.2670. This transition represents the end of bullish momentum, with a phase of consolidation for the currency pair now to follow. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is likely to trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range, indicating the end of its recent bullish momentum. • As the Pound fell sharply, the oversold market conditions indicate that downside may be contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 band. • The support level is at 1.2570, and resistance is at about 1.2670, outlining the possible trading limits for GBP/USD. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the erosion of bullish momentum, which points towards consolidation instead of further advance. The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a consolidation mode, with the recent bullish trend having lost steam, according to analysts. The sudden decline of the Pound Sterling indicates possible further falls, yet oversold levels suggest the downside may not be extensive within the 1.2570–1.2640 zone. Major support is at 1.2570, while the resistance lies around 1.2670, which is the likely trading range in the near future. The break of 1.2615 validated the reversal of the uptrend, moving the outlook towards a range-bound move instead of an extension of the rally. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range as market sentiment transforms. GBP/USD has turned range-bound, with support at 1.2570 and resistance at 1.2670. Oversold levels indicate limited downside, while momentum changes point towards consolidation in the offing. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range. • GBP/USD should trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range as bullish momentum ebbs. • The sudden fall in GBP in recent times indicates further decline, but oversold levels might restrict downward movement. • 1.2570 is the key support level, and 1.2670 is close to the resistance level, setting the range for expected trading. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the reversal of GBP’s recent strength, and a consolidation phase was indicated. • It is possible for further dips to occur, with a clean breakdown below 1.2570 being improbable in the short run. • Markets need to keep an eye out for movements in the range with changes in sentiment and economic inputs determining GBP/USD prices. • The currency pair will more likely be sideways until new driving factors create a breakout beyond these set levels. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a stable phase at present, with investors following its trend closely. The movement of GBP/USD depends on general economic factors like inflation rates, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical factors, which dictate the value of currencies. Market sentiment is of utmost importance for determining the movement of GBP/USD, with investors evaluating economic policies and overall financial trends. Furthermore, external influences such as trade relations and central bank policies play a role in determining the long-term direction of the currency pair. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView During this phase, market participants are focusing on strategic decision-making according to market trends and fundamental indicators. The influence of financial institutions, economic reports, and policy announcements remains important in determining expectations. Knowledge of the overall economic environment is vital in making trading decisions, as global market conditions and investor sentiment significantly influence currency stability. Keeping abreast of major economic events and financial news continues to be important for those following the GBP/USD pair in today’s environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair shows a consolidation period, with the currency trading in a well-defined range. Major support is seen at 1.2570, and resistance at 1.2670 indicates limited short-term price movement. The break below 1.2615 reinforced the weakening of bullish energy, forming a range-bound pattern. Moving averages and RSI point towards neutral to weakly bearish sentiment, although oversold readings indicate stabilization potential. Traders are awaiting a breakout of this range, which may lead to the pair’s next directional move. FORECAST GBP/USD may try to breach the 1.2670 resistance point if upbeat economic data or a weaker US Dollar propels it. Dovish Federal Reserve cues, solid UK economic growth, or tame inflation levels are some of the factors that can give a boost to further rallies. A prolonged breach above this level can be a sign of the possibility of a longer-term bullish trend. On the other hand, bearish risks persist if the bearish tone gets stronger and pushes below the critical 1.2570 support. Deterioration in UK economic data, anxiety regarding interest rate policies, or a rise in the US Dollar could weigh down on GBP/USD. Once the pair moves below this support, it may leave the stage open for deeper falls, at least testing lower levels in the weeks ahead. Traders should also keep a close eye on economic releases, central bank announcements, and market trends to predict probable price movements.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Consolidates Above 1.4300: Will the Rectangle Pattern Hold or Break?

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  • February 7, 2025
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The USD/CAD pair remains in a consolidation phase above the 1.4300 level, forming a rectangular pattern that keeps traders uncertain about its next move. The pair continues trading below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which reinforces a bearish sentiment with weak short-term momentum. The 14-day RSI is also below the 50 mark, indicating persistent negative pressure. The immediate support stands at 1.4300, and there is a possible drop to 1.4280 if bearish momentum continues to strengthen. On the other hand, a breakout towards 1.4530 may be determined by the resistance at 1.4372 (nine-day EMA) and 1.4381 (14-day EMA). A breakout above or below these key levels will probably define the next direction for USD/CAD. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakdown beneath the key level might strengthen the impulse towards the bears and thrust USD/CAD to a psychological support level around 1.4200. • Breaking above 14-day EMA will likely revert the mood to being bullish and take prices towards the rectangle’s top boundary at 1.4530. • The 14-day RSI remains below the 50-bar mark, indicating weak momentum and favoring the downside in the short run as well. • A breakout above the nine- and 14-day EMAs could trigger bullish sentiment, supporting an upward move towards 1.4530. The USD/CAD pair remains at a critical juncture as it consolidates within a rectangular pattern, with traders closely monitoring key technical levels. The immediate support at 1.4280 is crucial, as a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum toward 1.4200. On the other hand, there is resistance at 1.4381 marked by the 14-day EMA, which is the important barrier for buyers, and a breakout above this level may drive the pair up to 1.4530. The 14-day RSI stands below the 50 mark, strengthening weak momentum and downside risks. Further, the crossing of the nine- and 14-day EMAs can also be an indicator of the shift in the sentiment. It would then be very important to observe a break-out beyond the same. The USD/CAD pair is consolidating in a rectangular pattern. There is a significant support at 1.4280 and resistance at 1.4381. A move below may add more strength to the bears, while a move above the EMAs could create a rally to 1.4530. Traders must keep an eye on the RSI and EMA crossover for a possible change in trend. • A move below this level may add more bearish pressure, pushing the USD/CAD toward the psychological support at 1.4200. • The 14-day EMA is a very strong resistance point. A close above would see the pair pushing toward 1.4530. • The USD/CAD pair remains under the nine- and 14-day EMAs, and momentum remains weak with the selling pressure continuing. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is also below the 50 mark and strengthens the bears while also implying that buying is weak. • The pair is consolidating within a rectangular range and a break in either direction would most likely set the next trend. • The pair hovers about the psychological support level; trading above it sustainably could limit downside risks. • A breach of the nine- and 14-day EMAs could easily shift the sentiment bullish and signal potential upside momentum. USD/CAD is still consolidating within a rectangular pattern and is showing very weak short-term price action by not being able to break down or break out with a clear directional bias. The important level at 1.4280 acts as key support and if it breaks down then it may accelerate down towards the psychological level of 1.4200. Again, the currency pair still trades below the nine and 14-day EMAs while maintaining a bearish sentiment. The 14-day RSI consolidates below the 50 mark, further indicating continued selling pressure. Traders are closely monitoring whether the pair will hold above 1.4300 as this psychological level could serve as an anchor for a potential rebound. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Resistance levels on the upside include the nine-day EMA at 1.4372 and then the 14-day EMA at 1.4381. A breakout above these levels would strengthen short-term momentum and drive USD/CAD towards the rectangle’s upper boundary at 1.4530. The EMA crossover will be a good trend reversal indicator as a decisive move above will shift sentiment bullish. Until then, the pair remains in consolidation mode, with traders waiting for a strong breakout to determine the next major move. The rectangular range remains intact, making it essential to monitor both support and resistance levels for a clearer market direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD indicates consolidation within a rectangular pattern, highlighting market indecision. The pair remains below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing a bearish sentiment with weak short-term momentum. The 14-day RSI stays below the 50 mark, signaling continued selling pressure and a lack of strong buying interest. Immediate support is at 1.4280, and a breakdown below this level could push the pair toward the psychological 1.4200 zone. On the upside, resistance at 1.4372 (nine-day EMA) and 1.4381 (14-day EMA) remains crucial, with a breakout above these levels potentially triggering an upward move toward 1.4530. Traders should watch for a decisive move beyond these levels to determine the next trend direction. FORECAST The USD/CAD pair has a potential upward move if it will break above these key resistance levels. The immediate overhead will be at the nine-day EMA at 1.4372 and the 14-day EMA at 1.4381. A breakout above these levels may show renewed bullish momentum that could continue to propel the pair to the upper boundary of the rectangle at 1.4530. Additional strength in the U.S. dollar or a recovery in crude oil prices affecting the Canadian dollar can drive further advances. If the bullish mood is strengthened, USD/CAD may target the next psychological resistance at 1.4600, which can give traders opportunities to go long. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.4300, but a critical lower boundary is at 1.4280. A break below this level could intensify selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the psychological support at 1.4200. Further bearish momentum, supported by

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