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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Closes Week Higher on US-EU Trade Hopes and Dovish Data Combination

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  • July 26, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair closed the week almost 1% up, boosted by increased hopes for a US-EU trade deal before the August 1 deadline. All the while, even as weak US economic data, such as a precipitous decline in Durable Goods Orders, dampened the mood, it was softened by robust jobless claims and waning concerns about aggressive Fed policy. Concurrently, the European Central Bank left rates unchanged, affirming a prudential, data-driven approach. As financial markets look ahead to next week’s critical Federal Reserve gathering, as well as major US and EU economic reports, the EUR/USD hovers in the 1.1750 region, with sentiment still cautiously bullish. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are looking for the Fed to leave rates unchanged; any surprise change in tone would ignite volatility in EUR/USD. • Major indicators such as Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls will provide new information about the US economic landscape and inflation trend. • Future releases will contribute to expectations of future ECB actions and eurozone economic stability. • Any news or delays in the proposed trade deal may have a direct bearing on market mood and the strength of the euro. The EUR/USD currency pair closed the week higher by almost 1% on increasing optimism over the prospects of a US–EU trade deal and subdued expectations of Fed-inspired monetary tightening. Although US Durable Goods Orders plummeted, improving jobless claims data and evidence of robust core business investment cushioned sentiment. On the European side, the ECB left rates unchanged, echoing a defensive, meeting-by-meeting stance in the face of internal dissent. With the pair converging close to 1.1750, traders now focus on a high-impact week of activity ahead, highlighted by the Fed’s policy rate decision, significant US economic releases, and inflation and GDP numbers out of the eurozone. EUR/USD closed the week on a high note, fueled by trade optimism and steadfast labor market statistics in the US. The pair now looks to the Fed’s next rate decision and major economic indicators from both areas. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish as traders search for new directional signals. • EUR/USD gained close to 1% this week, closing at about 1.1741, on the back of trade optimism despite mixed US economic figures. •  US Durable Goods Orders fell by 9.6%, but solid jobless claims and core investment numbers softened the negative effect. •  The ECB left interest rates steady at 2%, sticking to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting strategy despite policy discord. •  Trade sentiment soared after news of possible US–EU agreement prior to the August 1 deadline boosted demand for the euro. • US President Trump estimated a 50-50 possibility of a deal with the EU, although threats of higher tariffs still remain. • Technical analysis indicates EUR/USD consolidating around 1.1750 with resistance at 1.1800 and support at 1.1714. • The important events for next week are the Fed rate decision, US Q2 GDP, Core PCE, Nonfarm Payrolls, and EU inflation and GDP data—all expected to dictate market direction. The EUR/USD currency pair finished the week stronger, supported by hope for a future US–EU trade deal and a generally stable macroeconomic environment. Expectations for a breakthrough in trade talks picked up steam after reports indicated that both parties are close to a deal before the August 1 deadline. Encouraging remarks by US President Donald Trump, along with previous reports of a completed trade agreement with Japan, worked to fortify market confidence. Meanwhile, even in the face of some disappointing US economic releases—like the plunge in Durable Goods Orders—investor morale proved to be resilient, partly due to firm jobless claims and ongoing indicators of the strength of the labor market. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the Eurozone, interest rates were held as forecast by the European Central Bank, as they stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance. Central bankers seem torn on the direction of monetary policy going forward, a nod to uncertainty in the wider economic environment. As for the eurozone economic calendar, it was relatively tranquil this week but will be busier in the days ahead with marquee data releases in store, including inflation and GDP readings from large economies such as Germany and Spain. These events, together with the much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting in the US, are expected to dictate investor expectations and determine the near-term trend of the euro. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is consolidating in the region of 1.1750 following a weekly high of 1.1788, just short of the critical psychological resistance of 1.1800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still bullish but at risk of losing further momentum as it heads into neutral levels. A fall below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.1714 may lead to a move towards the 1.1700 support, with additional loss exposing the 50-day SMA level of 1.1556. On the higher side, a strong break above 1.1800 would target the year-to-date high of 1.1829, followed by possible resistance at 1.1850. FORECAST If the positive momentum is sustained, especially bolstered by positive results from the forthcoming US–EU trade talks and sound economic data from the eurozone, EUR/USD may break above the 1.1800 resistance level. A successful break-through might open the way for a test of the year-to-date high at 1.1829. Apart from that, additional bullish extension may aim at the subsequent resistance level of 1.1850, particularly if the Federal Reserve indicates a pause or even a dovish direction at its July 30 decision. Better eurozone GDP and inflation readings may also underpin long-term upward pressure. Conversely, should trade negotiations break down or US indicators like GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls surprise to the higher side, bolstering the US Dollar, EUR/USD may face fresh selling pressure. A decline below the 1.1714 20-day SMA would likely expose the 1.1700 psychological support. Further weakness may take the pair down to the 50-day SMA around 1.1556. Also, any Fed hawkish turn or any disappointing economic data from the eurozone can further favor the bears in sentiment in the short term.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Put Around 1.1350 as Market Prepares for ECB Interest Rate Decision and Fed Inflation War

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  • April 15, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair stays put around the 1.1350 level as the US Dollar tries to regain stability as stagflation fears increase and as market sentiment turns defensive. Market participants are watching remarks from Federal Reserve officials, such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who noted the long way that will have to go to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target — a sign that rate decreases will not come as early as some had anticipated. In the meantime, everyone is focused on the next policy meeting of the European Central Bank, when a widely anticipated 25 basis point reduction in interest rates might determine the Euro’s short-term direction. Uncertainty over global trade tensions and changing projections by major financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank also contribute to the confusion, leaving market participants vigilant for any hints about the future course of monetary policy on both the Atlantic and other sides. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, and they are looking for forward guidance on the future of monetary easing. • Federal Reserve officials, particularly Raphael Bostic, indicate that rate cuts might take a bit longer as the US central bank stays loyal to its 2% inflation target. • Market participants look for the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for information on credit conditions, which may have implications for both the rate decision and the ECB’s economic outlook. • Increased trade uncertainty and possible US tariff changes remain weighing on market sentiment, providing near-term support for the Euro with recession fears in the US. With the EUR/USD pair trading around the 1.1350 mark, market attention turns to a number of key drivers that may decide its next direction. The European Central Bank is to make its highly anticipated policy rate decision on Thursday, with traders broadly factoring in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, while also looking for any guidance on future easing cycles. Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve’s measured approach to inflation — in the wake of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments — indicates that the journey towards U.S. rate cuts could be slower than anticipated. The publication of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey will also provide new clues on the state of credit in the Eurozone. At the same time, persistent global trade tensions and doubts over possible U.S. tariff shifts remain to influence investor mood, offering risk and support to the Euro in the short term. The EUR/USD pair remains anchored around 1.1350 as markets look for the ECB’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut and more hints on monetary policy. The US Dollar, meanwhile, looks to stabilize as Fed officials remain cautious about inflation and ongoing global trade tensions. Investors look for major data and central bank comments to determine the next move. •  EUR/USD hovers around 1.1350 as the pair remains range-bound with risky market sentiment. •  The US Dollar tries to firm up as stagflation fears reemerge and dampen global risk appetite. •  Federal Reserve’s Bostic indicates a long way to go before reaching the 2% inflation goal, dashing hopes for imminent rate cuts. •  ECB to cut the rate by 25 basis points at its policy meet on Thursday, keeping the Euro in limelight. •  Deutsche Bank revises rate cut prediction for Fed, anticipating first cut in Dec 2025, two additional cuts in early 2026. •  The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS) is under the spotlight for information regarding credit conditions and the health of the Eurozone economy. • Global trade tensions and recessionary concerns continue to underpin the Euro and place pressure on the US Dollar’s rebound. The EUR/USD currency pair remains firm as market participants look towards this week’s key central bank news and economic releases. The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting, a move designed to underpin growth throughout the Eurozone. Meanwhile, market players are monitoring the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey, which will offer useful insight into how credit conditions are influencing the region’s overall financial well-being. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar is holding its ground as traders digest recent comments from Federal Reserve officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s statement underlined that the path to bringing inflation back to the 2% target remains challenging, hinting that US rate cuts may not arrive as soon as previously expected. In addition to central bank indications, persistent global trade tensions and policy uncertainty are also exercising considerable influence over investor sentiment, with markets pricing in possible risks to the global economy in the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1350 level, hinting at consolidation as the pair awaits strong directional signals. The latest price action suggests indecision surrounding major levels of resistance and support, pointing to the fact that traders wait for new sparks from central bank policies or fresh economic data to push through resolute moves. A continued penetration of near-term resistance may be enough to establish further room on the upside, but a inability to maintain present support levels would risk exposing the pair to greater bear pressure short-term. FORECAST If the European Central Bank’s forthcoming policy announcement and economic commentary succeed in finding an even keel — loosening but remaining upbeat on the recovery of the Eurozone — then the EUR/USD pair might strengthen in the near term. Surprise improvements in Eurozone economic statistics or hints at weakening US inflation might similarly prop up the Euro, sending the pair higher to resistance levels as risk appetite is regained by investors. On the flip side, if the rate cut by the ECB is coupled with a more dovish tone or the US Dollar gains new strength on the back of improved economic indicators or diminishing recession fears, EUR/USD could see fresh selling pressures. Also, ongoing global trade tensions and any rise in geopolitical tensions would tempt investors to take refuge in the

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Firm in Face of German Debt Reforms and ECB Rate Decision: Market Analysis and Key Drivers

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  • March 6, 2025
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EUR/USD stays firm at the 1.0800 level as investors await the highly expected interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% on the cards. Market mood is influenced by Germany’s mooted 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which may affect inflation and economic growth. In the meantime, US President Trump’s temporary easing of car tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated fears of a trade war, with the result that the US Dollar has weakened. Soft US private jobs data have also raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June. Now, investors wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks and future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases to guide the markets further. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank is likely to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, impacting EUR/USD price action and investor sentiment. • Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and extended borrowing capacity may affect inflation expectations and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reduced trade tensions, but possible tariffs on German cars continue to be a major risk. • Soft US private hiring data have fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Fed, which makes the release of Friday’s NFP a highly market-moving event. EUR/USD continues to be a hot topic for traders as significant economic and policy events are played out. The ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% has the potential to influence future monetary policy, while Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In addition, President Trump of the US has temporarily softened auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which has softened trade tensions but leaves uncertainty over possible tariffs on German automobiles. Furthermore, disappointing US private employment data have also spurred hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and thus, coming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release will be a pivotal driver in establishing the direction of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0800 as the market looks to the ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate reduction and Christine Lagarde’s comments. Germany’s infrastructure fund and US trade policy contribute to the uncertainty, while soft US jobs data drives speculation of a June Fed rate cut. • The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, influencing EUR/USD action. • A planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and eased borrowing ceilings could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico softens trade tensions, but there is still uncertainty regarding possible tariffs on German cars. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day in a row, trading around 104.00, its lowest since four months ago. • Soft private sector employment growth has increased hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate reduction, impacting USD strength. • The pair is still robust above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI > 60, which means bullish momentum. • Market participants are monitoring the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report closely for more cues on the direction of Fed monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair remains steady as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid Germany’s proposed 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which aims to boost economic growth and could influence inflation in the Eurozone. Traders are eagerly waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision remarks for signals about future policy guidance and the overall economic landscape. Meanwhile, market sentiments are still under pressure due to fears of possible US tariffs on European products, especially German cars. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade actions and economic indicators continue to be major drivers of the forex market. US President Donald Trump’s temporary easing of automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated trade tensions, but uncertainty persists with possible tariffs on European goods. Separately, soft US private jobs data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Investors now await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for additional insight into the health of the US labor market. Any meaningful changes in economic statistics or monetary policy decisions made by the Fed or ECB can influence currency trends in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is well placed around the 1.0800 mark, demonstrating bullish sentiment on the charts. The pair has convincingly broken above the December 6 high of 1.0630, further strengthening an uptrend. It is still trading in excess of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0640, marking long-term robustness. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, a sign of extended buying pressure. On the down side, January 27’s high of 1.0533 is the critical support area, and the subsequent resistance point for Euro bulls is the November 6 high of 1.0937. In general, the technical perspective remains bullish for additional gains unless substantial bearish drivers arise. FORECAST EUR/USD might enjoy additional strength if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a prudent stance even with the anticipated rate reduction. If ECB President Christine Lagarde provides cues of a diminished rate-cut pace in the future or hints at optimism regarding Eurozone economic rebound, the Euro can pick up momentum. Also, Germany’s planned infrastructure fund would help boost investor sentiment about the region’s growth prospects. A softer US Dollar, based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, might also sustain EUR/USD’s rally. In case the pair convincingly crosses above the 1.0937 resistance mark, it would test higher levels in the future sessions. EUR/USD risks facing downward pressures if the ECB turns more dovish, reflecting further aggressive rate cuts. Any weakness in the Eurozone economics, notably in

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