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EUR/USD Plunges to 1.1700 as Bullish US Data Sends Greenback to 20-Day High

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  • September 25, 2025
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Euro dropped for a second day in a row against the US Dollar, with EUR/USD sliding towards the 1.1700 level as solid US economic data sent the Greenback to a 20-day high. Better-than-anticipated Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods Orders indicated strong US growth, while Q2 Core PCE inflation crept higher to 2.6%. The positive news supported the Dollar and made it more difficult for near-term Federal Reserve easing expectations, with markets now looking to Friday’s August Core PCE inflation print for new policy signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair is at its weakest since September 11, under pressure from widespread Dollar strength. • Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods all surpassed estimates, highlighting strong economic momentum. • Q2 Core PCE crept up to 2.6%, maintaining inflation risks in focus. • Friday’s report will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations as well as market sentiment. EUR/USD still under pressure as robust US economic data feeds the Dollar’s strength, driving the pair to the 1.1700 handle. Strong Jobless Claims, above-consensus Q2 GDP, and increasing Durable Goods Orders reflect strong US growth, while Q2 Core PCE inflation of 2.6% reflects ongoing inflationary pressures. Friday’s August Core PCE inflation report will now be in the market’s focus, which can impact the policy direction of the Federal Reserve and decide the timing of any future rate hikes. EUR/USD drops towards 1.1700 as solid US data lifts the Dollar. Strong GDP, Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods point towards strong growth, with markets looking at Friday’s Core PCE inflation for Fed policy signals. • EUR/USD drops to the 1.1700 level, its lowest since September 11. • US Dollar Index (DXY) leaps to a 20-day high at 98.16. • Initial Jobless Claims were 218K, better than forecasted 235K. • Q2 US GDP was upwardly revised to a yearly 3.8%, higher than expectations. • Durable Goods Orders also climbed 2.9% in August, a sign of robust business spending. • Q2 Core PCE inflation rose modestly to 2.6%, a sign of ongoing inflation. • Attention turns to Friday’s release of August Core PCE inflation, important for Fed policy expectations. The Euro has lost ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row, in response to the influence of positive US economic news. Favorable updates on Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods Orders point to the strength of the US economy, sending a signal of optimism for the Greenback. This change in sentiment is propelling the Euro to trade around the 1.1700 level, hinting at a cautious bias for the currency pair. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Investors are now watching closely for the upcoming economic announcements, specifically the August Core PCE inflation report, which is said to influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy actions. The marriage of steady US growth and chronic inflation worries is influencing market expectations as traders weigh potential pace and magnitude of any monetary policy adjustment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is probing important support around the 1.1700 psychological level, which has served as a near-term base in recent trading sessions. The pair remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting bearish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining close to 40, reflecting potential for additional declines if selling pressure endures. Traders will keep a close eye on whether the pair can sustain above this support or a breakdown below could lead the way to the next technical levels at 1.1650. FORECAST EUR/USD can be expected to experience sustained pressure in the short term if the US Dollar continues to hold on to its strength, bolstered by strong economic reports. A dip below the 1.1700 support can drive the pair towards the subsequent levels of 1.1650–1.1600, indicating bearish strength and guarded Euro sentiments. But any hint at decelerating US inflation or softer-than-expected data will be welcome for the Euro, and a possible bounce back to 1.1750–1.1800 can be expected. The upcoming economic releases, especially the August Core PCE report, will closely be monitored by the traders and could lead to short-term volatility and determine the pair’s direction.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1750 as Dollar Rallies on Fed Indications and French Protest

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  • September 20, 2025
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EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 on Friday as the US Dollar bounced off three-year lows, fueled by increasing Treasury yields and reserve Federal Reserve officials’ dovish rhetoric after this week’s 25 bps cut in interest rates. Whereas San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari indicated a balanced prognosis, Governor Stephen Miran favored more easing, pointing to internal divergence. Meanwhile, political turmoil in France, with nationwide protests against planned cuts in spending, put pressure on the Euro. With a thin economic docket this week, investors now set their sights on future US data releases, such as PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE. KEY LOOKOUTS • Conflicting opinions by Daly, Kashkari, and Miran continue to influence expectations for upcoming rate cuts. • Nationwide demonstrations against spending reductions pressure the Euro and contribute to political risks in the region. • The major releases such as Flash PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and Core PCE inflation will be steering market sentiment next week. • Short-term direction remains key with EUR/USD support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800/1.1850. EUR/USD fell back below 1.1750 as the US Dollar rallied on the strength of rising Treasury yields and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials in the wake of the recent 25 bps rate cut. While Fed members Daly and Kashkari kept a balanced tone, Governor Miran hinted that further easing might be warranted, which created market uncertainty. On the other hand, political tensions in France, where widespread protests broke out over suggested spending reductions, continued to weaken the Euro. With scarce data this week, speculators are looking ahead to next’s US economic reports, including PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and the Core PCE inflation measure, for new direction. EUR/USD declined below 1.1750 after the US Dollar recovered on higher Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments. Political tension in France put additional pressure on the Euro, and markets now look to major US releases including GDP and Core PCE for new impetus. • EUR/USD fell 0.32% to 1.1747 as the US Dollar recovered from three-year lows. • Higher US Treasury yields underpinned the Greenback later in the week. • Fed officials sent out conflicting signals — Daly tilted dovish, Kashkari remained neutral, and Miran signaled further easing. • Protests in France against proposed spending reductions pushed the Euro and introduced political risk. • US Jobless Claims dropped to 231K, ahead of estimates, and the Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 23.2. • Futures markets expect a 90% probability of yet another Fed rate cut this month and close to 80% for December. • The important technical levels are support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800–1.1850, while RSI still supports the overall uptrend. The Euro came under pressure against the US Dollar as political unrest in France and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials influenced market sentiment. Demonstrations in major French cities underscored popular resistance against planned spending cuts, giving President Emmanuel Macron and his newly elected Prime Minister fresh challenges. This political unrest created another level of uncertainty for the Euro, already burdened by external factors. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView To the upside, the Dollar found support on the US side from firmer Treasury yields and recent comments from Fed officials after a 25 bps rate cut. Although Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari found a balanced tone, Governor Stephen Miran reaffirmed his liking for more aggressive easing, highlighting splits in the Fed. With the calendar in the week looking fairly light, focus is shifting to coming US economic announcements like PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and Core PCE that will give better insight into the economic direction and policy trajectory. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 following an evening star candlestick pattern formation, indicating deteriorating momentum for the Euro. Bears are looking to 1.1700 as the next level of support, with a deeper sell-off possibly revealing the September 11 low at 1.1659 and the 100-day SMA around 1.1560–1.1574. On the upside, a reversal above 1.1800 could set the stage for 1.1850 and eventually the year-to-date high at 1.1918, while the RSI still underpins the larger-picture bullish bias by remaining below overbought. FORECAST If EUR/USD can maintain its position above the 1.1700 support and draw in new buying, the pair may recover momentum towards 1.1800. A move above this level would set the stage for additional gains towards 1.1850, with potential to test the year-to-date high at 1.1918. US data weakness and or a relaxation of political tensions in Europe may be catalysts for this rally. On the downside, persistent pressure from higher US Treasury yields and continued French political turmoil could drive EUR/USD lower. A strong breakdown below 1.1700 could reveal the September 11 low at 1.1659, with additional bears risks reaching the 100-day SMA and the August swing low in the 1.1560–1.1574 area. Bigger-than-anticipated US data would most likely speed this bearish trend.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Approaches 1.1800 as Fed Cut Chances Increase and French Political Uncertainty Dampens Eurozone

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  • September 9, 2025
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EUR/USD rose towards 1.1800 during Tuesday’s Asian session, its third straight day of advances, as the US Dollar dipped on hopes of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Bets in the market are for a virtual 90% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut with only a 10% chance of a bigger 50-basis-point reduction based on softer US employment data. Eyes now switch to pivotal US inflation reports, such as PPI and CPI, that may inform the Fed’s policy direction. Meanwhile, political tension in France following a confidence vote loss by Prime Minister François Bayrou puts pressure within the Eurozone, while most traders expect the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets price in almost 90% probability of a 25 bps September reduction with 10% probability of an increased 50 bps adjustment. • PPI and CPI releases this week will play a crucial role in informing the Fed’s rate outlook. • Prime Minister François Bayrou’s confidence vote failure introduces new uncertainty in the Eurozone. • Market expects rates to be left on hold by the ECB but attention will be focused on guidance regarding future policy. EUR/USD maintained its strength on Tuesday, closing around 1.1780 as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s decision in September, with markets heavily biased in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut and even looking at a bigger move of 50 bps. The weakness in the US Dollar, driven by weaker jobs data, has helped the pair, and coming US inflation numbers, such as PPI and CPI, will look to guide the currency further. On the European front, the Euro came under political pressure as French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote, creating new uncertainty, although the ECB is universally anticipated to maintain rates unchanged in its next meeting. EUR/USD hovers around 1.1780 as bets for the Fed rate cut hammer the US Dollar, with markets looking for crucial US inflation numbers this week. Eurozone uncertainty is built in due to political instability in France, while the ECB is likely to maintain rates unchanged on Thursday. • EUR/USD posts third consecutive gain, hovering around 1.1780. • US Dollar loses ground as markets become more convinced of a September Fed rate cut. • CME FedWatch instrument indicates 90% probability of a 25 bps cut, with 10% probability of a 50 bps move. • Weaker US jobs data has lifted Fed easing expectations. • Traders look to US PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday for policy signals. • French Prime Minister François Bayrou loses confidence vote, following political uncertainty. • ECB likely to leave rates steady, with attention to its forward guidance. The Euro is attracting support this week on the basis of expectations by traders for key policy and political developments on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve meeting in September is the focus, where markets overwhelmingly expect an interest rate reduction on account of recent indications of weaker labor market performance. Investors are also preparing for a series of key inflation reports, such as the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index, that may provide new information on the Fed’s future action. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In Europe, markets are concerned with monetary policy and political unrest. The European Central Bank is expected to stand pat on rates at its next meeting, with traders watching its forecast for the remainder of the year closely. Meanwhile, France has moved into a state of uncertainty following the loss of a confidence vote by Prime Minister François Bayrou, which compelled President Emmanuel Macron to find a new chief. This combination of changing US policy expectations and Eurozone political uncertainty is directing the overall sentiment toward the Euro. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is holding strong around the 1.1780 level, continuing its recent upward trend as buyers are in charge. The currency pair has stretched its winning sequence for the third consecutive session, with support at present in the 1.1750 area, and the next major resistance level prevailing around the psychological 1.1800 level. A decisive crossing above the same could pave the way towards higher gains, while a lack of momentum may ignite a sell-off towards near-term levels of support. FORECAST Should optimistic momentum prevail, EUR/USD may see through the psychological 1.1800 level, with the next resistance at 1.1850 being in focus for buyers. More optimistic Euro sentiment can be boosted if the Federal Reserve indicates an increased determination towards loosening or if US inflation numbers are softer than anticipated, boosting confidence in further cuts in interest rates. Conversely, inability to hold above 1.1780 levels may cause EUR/USD to drop back to the 1.1750 support zone, with further falls possible towards 1.1700 depending on market sentiment shifting towards the US Dollar. Reversals in US economic news or dovish cues from the ECB might put pressure on the pair and cap additional upside gains.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies as Traders Wait for US Jobs Data and Services PMI for Fed Policy Hints

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  • September 4, 2025
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EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls as the primary driver for Fed policy expectations. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and soft US JOLTS job openings have fueled speculation of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, now priced at almost 97%. Traders, however, are reluctant to take large positions, fearing upside surprises in future labor market reports, leaving the Euro exposed within its established range of support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. KEY LOOKOUTS • The ADP Employment Change and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be pivotal in determining expectations for a September Fed rate cut. • Disappointing July retail sales reflect sluggish consumption, weighing on Euro sentiment. • Market expectations of a September rate cut jumped to 97%, with additional cuts possible in the coming months. • Support is at 1.1610–1.1590, while resistance is at 1.1680–1.1735, keeping EUR/USD stuck within its recent range. The EUR/USD pair is trading steady around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls set to be the primary driver for near-term direction. Weak Eurozone retail sales data put pressure on the Euro, while soft US labor market signals and dovish Fed comments have boosted expectations of a September rate cut. Despite easing debt concerns and falling bond yields, traders are reluctant to take large bets until more clarity is provided by upcoming US data, leaving the pair fluctuating within its recent support and resistance levels. EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1650 as markets wait for US jobs and services data for Fed policy hints. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and softer US labor signals keep the pair range-bound, with traders cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • EUR/USD trades around 1.1650 ahead of the US session, without clear direction. •  Eurozone retail sales declined 0.5% in July, deeper than anticipated, weighing on the Euro. • US JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest in almost a year, indicating labor market weakness. • Fed rate cut expectations jumped to 97% for September, driven by weak economic data and dovish Fed rhetoric. • ADP Employment Change forecast at 65K, down from July’s 104K, raising job creation concerns. • ISM Services PMI forecast at 51.0, indicating modest improvement in US service sector activity. • Technical range continues with support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. The Euro is finding it difficult to gain traction as investors continue to focus on upcoming US economic data releases that are likely to offer clearer signals on Federal Reserve policy. A sharper-than-anticipated fall in Eurozone retail sales has weighed on sentiment, with weak consumer demand across the region. Meanwhile, softer US labor market signals, including a fall in job openings to the lowest level in almost a year, have supported expectations of Fed easing. Market participants are closely monitoring the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data, while Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be the most influential event for the week. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Broader market sentiment has stabilized following recent worries about global debt levels, with easing bond yields offering some comfort to investors. Fed officials have signaled the possibility of rate cuts beginning as early as September, which has supported bets on a more accommodative stance in the coming months. However, traders are still cautious, shying away from large positions until there is more clarity from the US jobs data. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD is likely to remain stable, with investor attention firmly on economic releases that could redefine expectations for monetary policy in the US and Europe. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to be contained within a well-defined range, without a decisive breakout. Immediate support is at 1.1610, with a firmer floor between 1.1575 and 1.1590, an area that has consistently stopped bearish advances in recent weeks. A deeper fall could test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1565, followed by the August low around 1.1530. On the upside, resistance is lined up at 1.1682, with further hurdles at the descending trendline around 1.1725 and the 1.1735 zone, which capped gains several times in August and early September. Until a clear move above these levels is made, the pair is likely to continue consolidating within its established limits. FORECAST If US labor data in the coming days confirms a sharper slowdown in employment, EUR/USD could gain traction as markets fully price in a September Fed rate cut. Softer-than-anticipated ADP or Nonfarm Payrolls reports would weaken the Dollar, paving the way for a recovery towards 1.1680 initially. A sustained break above this level could encourage further bullish momentum towards the descending trendline around 1.1725–1.1735, where firmer resistance lies. Alternatively, a stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report could dampen rate-cut expectations, strengthening the Dollar and putting pressure on the Euro. In that event, EUR/USD may slide towards the 1.1610 area, with a break below exposing the key support zone at 1.1575–1.1590. If selling gathers pace, further downside could target the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1565 and eventually the August low around 1.1530.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Maintains Strength Above 1.1660 as US PCE Figures Confirm Fed Rate Cut Bets

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  • August 29, 2025
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EUR/USD remained firm above 1.1660 on Friday following the most recent US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which was in line with forecasts and indicated continued inflation and strong consumer spending. Core PCE increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, its highest level since February, while headline PCE advanced 0.2% on the month and remained at 2.6% year-on-year. Better-than-anticipated consumer spending and stable income growth upheld the US Dollar, although subdued market response prevented the pair from consolidating in recent areas. EUR/USD, despite near-term pressures, is still poised to close out August with about 2% monthly appreciation, as hopes for a September interest rate cut cap the Greenback’s gains. KEY LOOKOUTS • Core PCE climbed 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, highest annual rate since February. • Personal expenditure surged 0.5% in July, topping projections, while earnings increased 0.4%. • The US Dollar Index regained traction around 98.00, keeping EUR/USD at 1.1660. • Sticky inflation and decelerating hiring underpin expectations of a 25 bps Fed rate reduction in September. EUR/USD stabilized above 1.1660 on Friday after latest US PCE inflation data met expectations, highlighting persistent price pressures and robust consumer demand. Core PCE advanced 0.3% on the month and 2.9% on the year, the highest since February, while headline PCE climbed 0.2% on the month but remained unchanged at 2.6% on the year. Personal income and consumption growth also beat forecasts, which favored the US Dollar, though the market response was subdued. With inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target and hiring momentum weakening, prospects for a September rate cut still put a lid on the Greenback’s rally, keeping EUR/USD in consolidation mode. EUR/USD remained flat above 1.1660 as US PCE inflation came in line with expectations, with core prices increasing 2.9% year-on-year. Solid consumer spending benefited the US Dollar, but hopes for a September Fed rate cut kept EUR/USD in consolidation mode. • EUR/USD leveled higher above 1.1660 following US PCE inflation data coming in in line with expectations. • Core PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, the highest since February. • Headline PCE was up 0.2% MoM, with the yearly rate remaining unchanged at 2.6%. • Personal spending climbed 0.5% in July, beating the expectation of 0.3%. • Personal income increased 0.4% MoM, in line with expectations and higher than June’s 0.3%. • US Dollar Index regained strength around 98.00, capping Euro’s recovery. • Hopes of a September 25 bps Fed rate cut place the Dollar’s upside under pressure. The recent US PCE inflation report indicated a blend of ongoing price pressures and sticky consumer demand. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s desired measure of inflation, climbed 0.3% on the month and 2.9% year-on-year, its highest since February. In contrast, headline PCE rose 0.2% on the month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 2.6%. To go along with this, personal spending was up by a better-than-expected 0.5% in July, as personal income rose 0.4%, indicating stable household consumption underpinned by higher incomes. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView These numbers highlight the Fed’s continued dilemma of how to keep sticky inflation at bay while finding indications of decelerating economic momentum. While consumer spending is holding up, the fact that core inflation continues above the 2% threshold indicates ongoing price pressures within the economy. Market players now expect the Federal Reserve may go ahead with a limited rate reduction in September, as policymakers try to weigh inflation management against maintaining more general economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is stabilizing above the 1.1660 support region, demonstrating strength in the face of pressure from the bullish US Dollar. A continued hold here maintains the pair in a short-term neutral band, with resistance within the 1.1700–1.1720 range. Breaking above here may set the stage for more upside, while a fall below 1.1660 would leave the next support around 1.1620 vulnerable. Overall, price action indicates consolidation with a defensive bias as investors wait for further direction from future Fed moves. FORECAST If EUR/USD is able to hold its gains above 1.1660 support, buyers may target the 1.1700–1.1720 resistance in the near term. A clear break above the zone might initiate further advances to 1.1760, provided there is optimistic market sentiment around a September Fed rate reduction. Buoyant consumer spending numbers may cap Euro strength short-term, but softening inflation outlook or dovish Fed rhetoric might aid an upside thrust. Conversely, failure to stay above 1.1660 may encourage fresh selling pressure, with the next support at 1.1620. A fall below this might initiate further losses towards 1.1580. Sticky inflation and US Dollar resilience may drag the Euro down in the near term, with the bearish risks still present unless new catalysts improve the dynamics of the single currency.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebound as Dovish Mixed US CPI Keeps September Fed Rate Cut Speculation Alive

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  • August 12, 2025
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The Euro reclaimed its losses against the US Dollar on Tuesday, rising to about 1.1630 and ending a two-day losing streak following mixed US inflation reports. July’s headline CPI increased in accordance with forecasts at 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, while core inflation unexpectedly beat forecasts at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Even sturdier core readings, markets still expect a Federal Reserve rate reduction in September, aided by softening overall inflation pressures and a weaker jobs market. In the Euro area, sentiment fell sharply, with Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index down more than anticipated, although words of ECB policymakers implying that rates are still at a proper level provided some support for the common unit. KEY LOOKOUTS • Headline inflation eased as predicted, but core inflation surprised to the upside, providing a cautionary note for Fed policy. • Markets continue to price in a September rate cut even after the hotter reading of core. • German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment indicators plummeted, reflecting sustained growth difficulties. • ECB policymakers assert interest rates are at a “very good level,” suggesting policy room during economic uncertainties. Euro made gains against the US Dollar on Tuesday to reach about 1.1630 after conflicting US inflation data cooled recent bearish pressure. Although July’s headline CPI was as forecast and improved marginally on the year figure, core inflation unexpectedly hardened on the upside to show continued pressures. Despite this, investors are still hopeful the Federal Reserve will proceed with a September rate cut, as weaker overall inflation and a slowing labor market leave scope for policy relaxation. In the Eurozone, mood worsened significantly, with Germany’s ZEW survey indicating increased growth concerns, though assurances from ECB officials that the central bank is to stay flexible provided some support to the currency. The Euro surged to near 1.1630 following mixed US CPI data, with markets remaining bullish on a September Fed rate cut even as core inflation was hotter. Sluggish Eurozone sentiment dragged the outlook down, but supportive comments from ECB officials contained the downside pressure. • The Euro surged to near 1.1630, ending a two-day losing trend following mixed US inflation data. •  US July headline CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY. •  Core CPI was above forecast at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, reflecting continued price pressures. •  Markets continue to widely anticipate the Federal Reserve to reduce rates in September even as core readings strengthened. •  German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index declined sharply to 34.7 in August from 52.7 in July. •  Sentiment across the Eurozone also declined, reflecting ongoing economic headwinds. •  ECB officials indicated rates are at a “very good level” and stressed flexibility in adapting to evolving conditions. The Euro firmed on Tuesday as uneven US inflation data provided some respite for the currency, aiding it to rebound from recent losses. July’s headline CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating that price growth is slowing in line with expectation. Yet, core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was a touch higher than expected, indicating that underlying price pressures persist. In spite of this, market participants still expect a September Federal Reserve rate cut as decelerating headline inflation and evidence of a softening labor market provide room for policymakers to maneuver. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Europe, the economic sentiment continued to be soft, with the recent ZEW survey indicating a sharp decline in confidence in Germany and the wider Eurozone. The fall underscores continued worries of weak growth and repeated headwinds in the bloc’s biggest economy. However, words from ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, suggesting interest rates are at a “very good level” and the bank has the flexibility to adjust if necessary, gave some comfort. Although there are still uncertainties—most notably over trade tensions—the comments gave some stability to the euro’s outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD bounced back to the 1.1630 area after hitting support close to recent lows, indicating short-term demand. The recovery in the pair keeps it above crucial support levels of 1.1600, while near resistance is located close to 1.1650, followed by the 1.1700 handle. A breakout above these hurdles on a sustained basis may allow further up move, while a fall below 1.1600 may lead to the next support at 1.1570. Momentum indicators are stabilizing, suggesting possible consolidation prior to the next directional shift. FORECAST Short term, EUR/USD may experience modest gains if sentiment continues to support a September rate cut by the Fed. A continued break above the 1.1650 resistance range should set the stage for 1.1700, with more pronounced bullish momentum likely taking it to 1.1750. Encouraging Eurozone news or dovish Fed commentary could propel the rally further. The downside is, however, that if US economic statistics improve or Fed policymakers turn dovish on easing, the pair can expect to see fresh selling pressure. A fall below 1.1600 would bring into focus the 1.1570 and 1.1540 support levels. Poor Eurozone data or increased geopolitical tensions can fuel bearish activity in the sessions to come.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Holds Gains Amid Weak US Data and Eurozone Uncertainty: Traders Eye Fed and Tariff Developments

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  • August 6, 2025
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EUR/USD pair is trading within a tight range near recent highs as weak US services sector data and renewed stagflation fears weigh on the US Dollar. While the Euro has gained ground following disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls and PMI figures, it struggles to find strong support amid soft Eurozone retail sales and declining German factory orders. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely watching upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve officials and potential political developments, including speculation over new Fed leadership appointments and tariff threats from former President Trump. Though short-term gains, the overall bearish trend of EUR/USD continues to be in place below the 1.1600 resistance line. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Statements by Federal Reserve officials could provide important guidance on September’s monetary policy choice in light of soft US data and growing stagflation fears. •  Market responses could become more pronounced if Donald Trump publicly nominates candidates for the Fed Governor position or makes suggestions of replacing Jerome Powell, which can potentially erode confidence in the Fed’s autonomy. •  Weak retail sales and factory orders highlight sluggish momentum in Europe’s economy, limiting upside potential for the Euro. • The EUR/USD pair faces strong resistance at the 1.1600 level; a breakout could shift momentum higher, while failure to hold above 1.1530 risks a deeper pullback. EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating near recent highs as disappointing US services data and rising fears of stagflation continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Although the Euro has benefited from the greenback’s weakness, lackluster Eurozone retail sales and a further drop in German factory orders have limited its upside momentum. Traders are still in wait-and-see mode as they look for new hints from the future speeches of Federal Reserve officials and prospective policy changes, especially in light of rumors over Donald Trump’s role in future Fed nominations. Technically, the pair is still capped below the major resistance at 1.1600, maintaining the larger bearish trend for the time being. EUR/USD trades sideways near recent highs as weak US data pressures the Dollar, but soft Eurozone figures limit the Euro’s strength. Markets await Fed officials’ comments and political developments for direction, with key resistance seen at 1.1600. •  EUR/USD trades near 1.1580, consolidating gains from last week’s US NFP-driven rally. •  US Services PMI fell to 50.1, signaling near-stagnant growth and raising stagflation concerns. •  Eurozone retail sales increased merely 0.3%, missing forecasts and demonstrating subdued consumer demand. •  German factory orders fell 1%, adding further evidence of economic softness in the region. •  Speculation regarding Trump’s Fed nominees adds political risk, dampening USD confidence. •  Technical resistance around 1.1600 is a significant hurdle; a break higher may spark fresh upside momentum. •  Investors watch Fed speakers for hints on future interest rate action in the wake of weakening US data. The EUR/USD currency pair is steady as investors are weighing weak macroeconomic reports from the United States and the Eurozone. The US Dollar has been pressured in the wake of disappointing services PMI readings, indicating weakening activity, falling employment, and increasing prices—reviving stagflation worries in the world’s largest economy. Meanwhile, market sentiment is also wary of speculation regarding possible Federal Reserve leadership changes, with former President Donald Trump said to be looking to replace mainstays at key roles, a move that may cast doubt on the central bank’s independence. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the Continent side, the Euro has not seen much support despite the Dollar’s weakness. Retail sales data in the Eurozone was weaker than expected, while German factory orders declined for the second consecutive month, signaling continued economic troubles in the region. Traders are closely watching the bigger picture of politics and economics, such as global trade tensions and yet-to-be-said comments from Federal Reserve officials, which may push investor mood and market direction in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is ranging narrowly just below the crucial resistance level at 1.1600, which has been capping upside efforts since the first week of August. The pair is still in a larger bearish trend that started in mid-July, with momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD becoming flat, indicating market indecision. A break above 1.1600 can have the EUR/USD test the 1.1700–1.1710 range, then trendline resistance at 1.1750. On the other hand, support is at 1.1530, with the further downside potentially targeting 1.1460 and 1.1400 if bear pressure resumes. FORECAST If EUR/USD can break and hold above the crucial resistance at 1.1600, the pair has a good chance to develop bullish momentum and aim for the next upside zone at 1.1700–1.1710, where former support levels could now serve as resistance. Another push through this region could see a test of the trendline resistance at 1.1750, particularly if further US economic data disappoints and Federal Reserve officials indicate a dovish bias. Meanwhile, a failure to overcome 1.1600 may continue to leave the pair under stress, with early support at 1.1530. A fall below this level could spark a more significant correction to 1.1460, then the 1.1400 region, seen in early August. Rising US Dollar strength, a hawkish tone from the Fed, or increased Eurozone economic weakness may promote the downside acceleration.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Pulls Back from Recent Highs Following US-Japan Deal that Bolsters Dollar and EU Trade Uncertainty Heightens

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  • July 23, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair pulls back from more than two-week highs following fresh US Dollar strength and increasing uncertainty about the EU-US trade relationship as a drag on the Euro. Having seen a significant 1.3% advance in the last three days, the Euro is under pressure as concerns over possible 30% US tariffs, coupled with stalling negotiations, take their toll. At the same time, a “monster trade agreement” between the US and Japan has supported investor sentiment towards the Dollar. Through the pullback, the immediate bullish picture for the pair remains in place, with a key support holding above the 1.1720 threshold as markets look for the European Central Bank’s policy decision and EU consumer sentiment reports. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market attention is on the status of current EU-US trade talks, as investors are concerned about possible 30% US tariffs on EU imports from August 1. •  Investors look to the Thursday ECB monetary policy release for signals on interest rate direction and potential easing as Eurozone growth slows. • The USD finds traction in a newly released US-Japan trade agreement, which could cap EUR/USD gains through the near term. • The EUR/USD currency pair remains above crucial support at 1.1720; a slide below may initiate further weakness to 1.1680 and 1.1645. The EUR/USD currency pair is under pressure after its robust three-day advance as investors respond to US Dollar’s fresh strength and increased uncertainty regarding EU-US trade relations. The Euro retreated from near two-week highs at 1.1760, trading around 1.1730 on fears that stalled trade negotiations may result in massive US tariffs on European imports on August 1. In contrast, a “massive trade deal” between the US and Japan has boosted the greenback, cutting short the Euro’s potential to advance. In spite of the correction, the pair has a near-term bullish outlook, with excellent support at 1.1720 in advance of major events like the ECB policy decision and EU consumer sentiment data. EUR/USD drifts from latest highs as US Dollar gains on reports of a trade agreement with Japan. EU-US trade tensions, combined with future ECB policy announcements, keep investors on their toes. Key support at 1.1720 remains in force, preserving the pair’s short-term bullish momentum. • EUR/USD falls back after surging 1.3%, weighed down by renewed US Dollar strength. • US-Japan trade agreement gives investors more confidence in the Dollar, taking it off recent lows. • Euro dips from 1.1760 to 1.1730, yet remains above key support at 1.1720. • EU-US trade uncertainty continues, with concerns over 30% US tariffs on EU exports from August 1. • ECB policy decision on Thursday is also a key market theme, with the expectation of a dovish tone. • Consumer Sentiment Index (EC) for July releases, but not likely to change sentiment unless it surprised positively. • Technical outlook is bullish, with attempts to the downside capped unless 1.1720 is breached. EUR/USD is attracting investor attention due to increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The Euro’s recent upsurge has decelerated as worries intensify regarding the unclamped trade talks between the United States and the European Union. With a possible 30% US tariff awaiting EU products from August 1, market sentiment remains on edge. The announcement of a new US-Japan trade agreement has also added pressure on the Euro, as the deal boosts confidence in the US Dollar and highlights Washington’s aggressive trade stance. Meanwhile, EU representatives are heading to Washington in a last-minute attempt to secure a deal and avoid retaliatory measures, keeping traders on edge. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the subdued tone, the European Central Bank will be announcing its most recent monetary policy decision, which would influence market direction for the Euro over the next few weeks. There will be no significant shifts in interest rates, though the market will be keenly aware of any indication of the ECB’s economic outlook or upcoming policy measures. Also on the horizon is the European Commission’s Consumer Sentiment Index for July, which is expected to evidence only modest improvement and is still below the long-run average—a further indication of the Eurozone’s dud recovery. Such developments collectively highlight the wider macroeconomic and political dangers confronting the Euro. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a short-term bullish formation despite its recent retreat. The duo has found support at higher levels of 1.1720, which was earlier the level of resistance, indicating a possible base for fresh northward movement. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) had moved into overbought levels following the recent upsurge, leading to the ongoing correction. A prolonged break below 1.1720 could pave the way for additional declines towards 1.1680 and 1.1645. On the positive side, resistance is capped at 1.1760, with a breach above the level set to reveal higher targets at 1.1790 and 1.1830. FORECAST As long as EUR/USD holds above the crucial support at 1.1720, the pair may return to bullish momentum. A successful bounce may propel the price back toward the immediate resistance at 1.1760. A breakdown below this level would probably open the way for a decline towards the next resistance levels at 1.1790 and possibly 1.1830, the monthly high. Encouraging news of EU-US trade negotiations or a dovish Federal Reserve could also give additional impetus to the Euro. On the negative side, a clean break below 1.1720 might indicate further weakness in the EUR/USD pair. This would tend to provoke a test of the next support at 1.1680, with a possible decline to 1.1645 along the reverse trendline. Poor Eurozone economic data, disappointing ECB guidance, or ongoing US Dollar strength on the back of positive trade news may fuel the downward pressure.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fails to Gain Momentum Amid Trade Uncertainty and Bearish Technical Indications

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  • July 8, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair continues to experience pressure even after modest recovery from two-week lows, as global trade uncertainty and incongruent Eurozone data continue to unfavorably impact market sentiment. Though expectations of positive developments in Eurozone-US trade talks have provided diminishing support for the Euro, broader risk aversion and safe-haven demand for the US Dollar are limiting any follow-through upside. Technically, the pair is ranging in a bearish expanding wedge, resistance being approximately 1.1780 and significant support at 1.1685. The pair’s general bearish outlook is supported by weak consumer demand, weak trade data, and persistent worries regarding US tariffs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Wednesday’s release may change sentiment based on the extent of the division among Fed members regarding future rate action. • Any news of updates or deals made may affect the direction of the Euro. • A breakout above 1.1780 or a breakdown below 1.1685 should confirm direction. • Ongoing worries regarding US tariffs and international trade may make the US Dollar remain sought-after as a safe haven. EUR/USD pair continues to be pressured as uncertainty in trades and aversion in global risk prevail in market sentiment. Even as the Euro received some lift from optimism on improvement in Eurozone-US trade negotiations and a short reprieve from US tariff threats, the overall bearish trend is still in force. Indifferent economic reports in Germany and France, coupled with declining retail sales in the Eurozone, further undermined faith in the European economy. In the meantime, the US Dollar remains resilient on safe-haven demand, with market participants keeping a keen eye on the future FOMC minutes for any indication of future monetary policy direction. EUR/USD is unable to hold onto gains as trade tensions and soft Eurozone data continue to firm up the bearish trend. Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and technical resistance around 1.1780 continue to cap upside. • EUR/USD is in a longer-term bearish trend, even though short-term it has bounced from two-week lows. • Trade uncertainty continues, with global risk sentiment subdued by renewed threats of US tariffs. • Eurozone economics is mixed, with weak consumption and easing trade activity. • US Dollar is still strong as investors turn to safe-haven assets in market volatility. • Technical pattern is that of an expanding wedge, generally a bearish pattern signaling potential for further fall. •  Resistance at 1.1780 is key, with a break upwards required to change the bearish view. •  Support at 1.1685 and 1.1630, coinciding with key Fibonacci levels and structure of trendlines. The EUR/USD is finding its way through a risk-averse market climate as investor attitudes are still influenced by ongoing trade tensions around the world. The latest news, with US President Trump reissuing tariff threats, has reawakened fears for global economic stability. Although optimism regarding Eurozone-US trade talks at one point boosted the Euro, wider uncertainty and a risk-averse tone have capped its advance. Economic performance across the Eurozone remains weak, with consumer confidence and trade statistics both showing increased weakening against ongoing global headwinds. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the macroeconomic side, recent German and French data present conflicting signals. Germany posted an increase in trade surplus mainly on account of falling imports, which is indicative of softer domestic demand, whereas that of France edged higher. Moreover, retail sales within the Eurozone declined sharply in May, representing the steepest fall in almost two years, highlighting once again the effect of economic uncertainty on consumption. Against a light US economic schedule, markets are now looking ahead to the coming FOMC minutes, which could provide some insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and what it means for currency markets.        TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading in a widening wedge pattern, a normally bearish formation that is often seen at market tops. The duo immediately meets resistance at 1.1780, which corresponds with the downward trendline from July 1 highs. A clean break above it and subsequent highs at 1.1790 would be necessary to negate the bearish scenario. To the downside, solid support is observed at 1.1685, identified by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June 24-July 1 rally. A break below this level would set the stage for further declines towards the 1.1630–1.1645 zone, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the highs align. Momentum indicators such as the RSI are also neutral, trading around the 50 mark, indicating indecision among the traders. FORECAST If euphoria about Eurozone-US trade talks holds and there are no new tariff threats on the horizon, EUR/USD may try to stage a slight rebound. A clear break above the near-term resistance at 1.1780 might open the door for further advances towards the 1.1790 region and potentially 1.1830, as long as market sentiment shifts risk-on. Moreover, any dovish sentiment in the next FOMC minutes or softer-than-anticipated US data could keep the US Dollar in check and support the Euro’s short-term upside potential. Conversely, ongoing fears of trade tensions at the global level and lower Eurozone fundamentals might push the EUR/USD pair down. A strong break below the 1.1685 support may result in a slide towards the next support zone of 1.1630–1.1645. If bearish pressure picks up and the US Dollar holds strong on account of safe-haven demand, the pair might even hit the 1.1600 psychological support level in the near future.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1800 as US Dollar Strengthens on Robust Job Figures and Powell’s Cautious Note

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  • July 2, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is further falling below the 1.1800 mark as the US Dollar strengthens on the back of solid economic data and a cautious note from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. A steep increase in US JOLTS Job Openings and higher-than-anticipated ISM Manufacturing PMI data have restored investor sentiment in the US economy, upholding the Greenback. On the other hand, dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials and a surprise rise in Eurozone unemployment have dragged the Euro lower. With markets looking forward to the ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls news, bearish technical indicators indicate more downside risk for EUR/USD. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the ADP Employment Change report for June, due to report a 95K increase in jobs, and which will determine the tone before Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • Investors will be watching ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments at the Sintra Summit closely for any new policy indications with creeping Eurozone unemployment. • EUR/USD is gaining more bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with a Head & Shoulders setup looking to target support at 1.1690–1.1650. • Robust US data and Powell’s conservative “wait-and-see” stance remain in favor of the USD, lowering short-term rate cut prospects. EUR/USD currency pair is bearish as the US Dollar strengthens on the back of a robust set of economic data and conservative statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. After briefly recovering above 1.1800, the Euro has turned back, buried by the surprise increase in Eurozone unemployment and dovish rhetoric from ECB officials. Conversely, the US labor market remains resilient, with both JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI beating forecasts. While markets shift their attention to the next big events such as the ADP Employment Change and ECB President Lagarde speech, bearish technical indications point toward potential further EUR/USD decline. EUR/USD extends losses as the US Dollar strengthens on positive job data and Powell’s dovish attitude. Higher Eurozone unemployment and dovish ECB news increase pressure on the Euro. Markets now look to the ADP Employment report and Lagarde’s speech for new direction. • EUR/USD trades below 1.1800, reversing from recent multi-year highs at 1.1830. • US Dollar gathers strength on positive JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also conservative in tone, stressing a “wait-and-see” stance on rate cuts. • Eurozone unemployment rose unexpectedly to 6.3%, weighing on the Euro. • Dovish statements by officials such as Rehn and Centeno on the ECB suggest possible further easing. • Bearish Head & Shoulders formation on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart directs the focus toward a decline to 1.1690–1.1650. • Attention turns to next US ADP report and ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further guidance. The EUR/USD currency pair is under renewed bearish pressure with economic divergence between the Eurozone and the United States being increasingly highlighted. The Euro is negatively influenced by a surprise increase in Eurozone unemployment to 6.3%, in addition to dovish comments from European Central Bank officials who remain worried about chronically low inflation. While German production figures revealed some relief and Eurozone CPI flattened, these were not enough to boost sentiment due to investors’ expectations of a more conservative ECB policy course in the near term. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is strengthening on recent figures that reinforce the solidity of the US economy. Solid job opportunities and a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI have been timed with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovishness at the ECB Forum in Sintra, where he invoked caution to follow data closely prior to making any policy action. With strong labor market data and steadfast inflation indications, the Fed is likely to stay patient on rate cuts, providing the USD with a steady tailwind. Focus then shifts to the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which may offer more insight into the outlook for the US economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is seen gathering bearish momentum following its inability to hold above the 1.1800 mark. The pair has broken below the Head & Shoulders neckline on the 1-hour chart and is now poised for a trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling lower into negative ground, supporting the bearish view. A confirmed decline below Tuesday’s low at 1.1760 would leave the door open toward the pattern’s measured target at 1.1690. Below that, focal support is between Tuesday’s June 27 low at 1.1680 and Monday’s June 26 low at 1.1650. On the positive side, there is resistance at 1.1810 and 1.1830 and stronger resistance at 1.1850 indicated by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. FORECAST Should EUR/USD be able to stay above the 1.1760 level and recover bullish strength, the pair may try to retest the 1.1800 psychological level. A break above 1.1810 and sustained would reveal the recent high at 1.1830. Additional bullish pressure may drive the pair to the 1.1850 resistance, indicated by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the June 26–30 rally. A positive change in Eurozone fundamentals or dovish US labor statistics can serve as a catalyst for higher highs. On the negative, inability to hold the 1.1760 support would speed the bearish correction. Breaking below this level would affirm the Head & Shoulders formation and aim for the next significant support at 1.1690. Ongoing pressure selling might take EUR/USD towards the 1.1680–1.1650 region, where buyers might intervene to stabilize the pair. Poor Eurozone economic data or better-than-anticipated US labor statistics would tend to strengthen the downward path.

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